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Health Monitoring and Prognostics for Electric Aircrafts

As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in the prediction of remaining driving flying time/distance for the flying vehicles. This information is important, particularly in the case of auto vehicles, because such vehicles can become self-aware, autonomously compute its own capabilities, and identify how to best plan and successfully complete vehicular missions safely. In case of electric aircrafts, computing the remaining flying time is also safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision-making. A systematic prediction framework is implemented to identify all possible sources of uncertainty, quantify each of them individually, and mathematically estimate their combined effect on the system-level quantity of interest, in this case, the remaining flying time/distance of the unmanned aircraft. Note - This presentation contains all previously approved and published information.

Systems Health Managent↗

Extended real-time voltage instability identification method based on synchronized phasor measurements

This paper presents an extended adaptive approach designed to accurately estimate the Thévenin equivalent parameters using phasor measurements at a given bus for measurements lying in any of four quadrants of the PQ-plane. The improvement is achieved by using a new condition to properly update the estimated parameters after an initial guess. Based on an adaptive philosophy, the proposed approach can correctly account for the intrinsic nonlinearities of a power system, can provide a real-time estimation of Thévenin parameters, and does not require network topology knowledge. The method is validated using the Kundur 2-area system, showing estimation improvements compared to the current adaptive approach and the classical recursive least-squares method. The proposed approach is able to estimate both sides of the system with respect to the measurement bus. In addition, a data-driven voltage stability index is developed. To illustrate the performance of the proposed approach in a larger power system, a voltage stability assessment is carried out on the IEEE 39-bus system, considering the action of overexcitation limiters of generators and nonlinear loads. The proposed approach is suitable for applications that require an accurate Thévenin equivalent estimation in real-time, such as for voltage stability assessment. The new approach provides a reliable tool for the system operators to make proper and timely decisions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Lossy compression of statistical data using quantum annealer

Abstract We present a new lossy compression algorithm for statistical floating-point data through a representation learning with binary variables. The algorithm finds a set of basis vectors and their binary coefficients that precisely reconstruct the original data. The optimization for the basis vectors is performed classically, while binary coefficients are retrieved through both simulated and quantum annealing for comparison. A bias correction procedure is also presented to estimate and eliminate the error and bias introduced from the inexact reconstruction of the lossy compression for statistical data analyses. The compression algorithm is demonstrated on two different datasets of lattice quantum chromodynamics simulations. The results obtained using simulated annealing show 3–3.5 times better compression performance than the algorithm based on neural-network autoencoder. Calculations using quantum annealing also show promising results, but performance is limited by the integrated control error of the quantum processing unit, which yields large uncertainties in the biases and coupling parameters. Hardware comparison is further studied between the previous generation D-Wave 2000Q and the current D-Wave Advantage system. Our study shows that the Advantage system is more likely to obtain low-energy solutions for the problems than the 2000Q.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dust and gas absorption in the high mass X-ray binary IGR J16318-4848

With an absorption column density on the order of 10 24 cm -2 , IGR J16318-4848 is one of the most extreme cases of a highly obscured high mass X-ray binary. In addition to the overall continuum absorption, the source spectrum exhibits a strong iron and nickel fluorescence line complex at 6.4 keV. Previous empirical modeling of these features and comparison with radiative transfer simulations raised questions about the structure and covering fraction of the absorber and the profile of the fluorescence lines. We aim at a self-consistent description of the continuum absorption, the absorption edges, and the fluorescence lines to constrain the properties of the absorbing material, such as ionization structure and geometry. We further investigate the effects of dust absorption on the observed spectra and the possibility of fluorescence emission from dust grains. We used XMM-Newton and NuSTAR spectra to first empirically constrain the incident continuum and fluorescence lines. Next we used XSTAR to construct a customized photoionization model where we vary the ionization parameter, column density, and covering fraction. In the third step we modeled the absorption and fluorescence in a dusty olivine absorber and employed both a simple analytical model for the fluorescence line emission and a Monte Carlo simulation of radiative transfer that generates line fluxes, which are very close to the observational data. Our empirical spectral modeling is in agreement with previous works. Our second model, the single gas absorber does not describe the observational data. In particular, irrespective of the ionization state or column density of the absorber, a much higher covering fraction than previously estimated is needed to produce the strong fluorescence lines and the large continuum absorption. A dusty, spherical absorber (modeled as consisting of olivine dust, although the nature of dust cannot be constrained) is able to produce the observed continuum absorption and edges. A dense, dusty absorber in the direct vicinity of the source consisting of dust offers a consistent description of both the strong continuum absorption and the strong emission features in the X-ray spectrum of IGR J16318-4848. In particular, for low optical depth of individual grains, which is the case for typical volume densities and grain size distribution models, the dust will contribute significantly to the fluorescence emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Monte Carlo control loops for cosmic shear cosmology with DES Year 1 data

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. Monte Carlo control loops (MCCL) is a forward modeling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the ultra fast image generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. Here, we present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_ℓ$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, point spread function (PSF), an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and a fast method to estimate the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a nontomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_ℓ$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $Ω_m$, $σ_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{IA}$, defined as $S_8D_{IA}=σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{IA}$, where $D_{IA}=1-0.11(A_{IA}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{IA}=0.8954_{-0.039}^{+0.054}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Transmission estimation at the quantum Cramér-Rao bound with macroscopic quantum light

The field of quantum metrology seeks to apply quantum techniques and/or resources to classical sensing approaches with the goal of enhancing the precision in the estimation of a parameter beyond what can be achieved with classical resources. Theoretically, the fundamental minimum uncertainty in the estimation of a parameter for a given probing state is bounded by the quantum Cramér-Rao bound. From a practical perspective, it is necessary to find physical measurements that can saturate this fundamental limit and to show experimentally that it is possible to perform measurements with the required precision to do so. Here we perform experiments that saturate the quantum Cramér-Rao bound for transmission estimation over a wide range of transmissions when probing the system under study with a continuous wave bright two-mode squeezed state. To properly take into account the imperfections in the generation of the quantum state, we extend our previous theoretical results to incorporate the measured properties of the generated quantum state. For our largest transmission level of 84%, we show a 62% reduction over the optimal classical protocol in the variance in transmission estimation when probing with a bright two-mode squeezed state with -8 dB of intensity-difference squeezing. Given that transmission estimation is an integral part of many sensing protocols, such as plasmonic sensing, spectroscopy, calibration of the quantum efficiency of detectors, etc., the results presented promise to have a significant impact on a number of applications in various fields of research.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Preliminary Design Study for an Eddy Current Flow Meter for Versatile Test Reactor

The eddy current flow meter (ECFM) serves the purpose of monitoring velocities and temperatures of conductive liquid coolant surrounding nuclear reactor cells. The ECFM can also detect voids in two-phase liquid metal flows. Measurement of this flow in reactor cells can greatly improve the accuracy of the empirical formulas used for fluid dynamics near the reactor core, as well as, aid in mapping any non-uniformities in fluid flow, its temperature estimation and phase. With modeling and experimental verification, an extensible ECFM for multiple facilities and environments can lead to an understanding of the liquid coolant flow; while saving cost of calibration and development. This can be done by characterizing the ECFM performance based on its parameters and then optimizing a sensor for a given use case. Simulation results using an ECFM and an aluminum rod medium are presented and discussed herein. Additionally, liquid metal simulations for Mercury and Galinstan will compare the ECFM behavior for different liquid velocities and excitation frequencies. After sensor calibration curves are generated and experimentally verified, ECFMs can be developed and deployed using the model introduced.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Photoionization Modeling of Oxygen K Absorption in the Interstellar Medium: The Chandra Grating Spectra of XTE J1817-330

We present detailed analyses of oxygen K absorption in the interstellar medium (ISM) using four high-resolution Chandra spectra towards the X-ray low-mass binary XTE J1817-330. The 11-25 A broadband is described with a simple absorption model that takes into account the pileup effect and results in an estimate of the hydrogen column density. The oxygen K-edge region (21-25 A) is fitted with the physical warmabs model, which is based on a photoionization model grid generated with the XSTAR code with the most up-to-date atomic database. This approach allows a benchmark of the atomic data which involves wavelength shifts of both the K lines and photoionization cross sections in order to fit the observed spectra accurately. As a result we obtain: a column density of N(sub H) = 1.38 +/- 0.01 x 10(exp 21) cm(exp -2); ionization parameter of log xi = .2.70 +/- 0.023; oxygen abundance of A(sub O) = 0.689(exp +0.015./-0.010); and ionization fractions of O I/O = 0.911, O II/O = 0.077, and O III/O = 0.012 that are in good agreement with previous studies. Since the oxygen abundance in warmabs is given relative to the solar standard of Grevesse and Sauval (1998), a rescaling with the revision by Asplund et al. (2009) yields A(sub O) = 0.952(exp +0.020/-0.013, a value close to solar that reinforces the new standard. We identify several atomic absorption lines.K-alpha , K-beta, and K-gamma in O I and O II; and K-alpha in O III, O VI, and O VII--last two probably residing in the neighborhood of the source rather than in the ISM. This is the first firm detection of oxygen K resonances with principal quantum numbers n greater than 2 associated to ISM cold absorption.

Gatuzz, E.↗

Photoionization Modeling of Oxygen K Absorption in the Interstellar Medium:

We present detailed analyses of oxygen K absorption in the interstellar medium (ISM) using four high-resolution Chandra spectra toward the X-ray low-mass binary XTE J1817-330. The 11-25 Angstrom broadband is described with a simple absorption model that takes into account the pile-up effect and results in an estimate of the hydrogen column density. The oxygen K-edge region (21-25 Angstroms) is fitted with the physical warmabs model, which is based on a photoionization model grid generated with the xstar code with the most up-to-date atomic database. This approach allows a benchmark of the atomic data which involves wavelength shifts of both the K lines and photoionization cross sections in order to fit the observed spectra accurately. As a result we obtain a column density of N(sub H) = 1.38 +/- 0.01 × 10(exp 21) cm(exp −2); an ionization parameter of log xi = −2.70 +/- 0.023; an oxygen abundance of A(sub O) = 0.689 (+0.015/−0.010); and ionization fractions of O(sub I)/O = 0.911, O(sub II)/O = 0.077, and O(sub III)/O = 0.012 that are in good agreement with results from previous studies. Since the oxygen abundance in warmabs is given relative to the solar standard of Grevesse & Sauval, a rescaling with the revision by Asplund et al. yields A(sub O) = 0.952(+0.020/−0.013), a value close to solar that reinforces the new standard.We identify several atomic absorption lines-K(alpha), K(beta), and K(gamma) in O(sub I) and O(sub II) and K(alpha) in O(sub III), O(sub VI), and O(sub VII)-the last two probably residing in the neighborhood of the source rather than in the ISM. This is the first firm detection of oxygen K resonances with principal quantum numbers n greater than 2 associated with ISM cold absorption.

oxygen↗

Linking the Pilot Structural Model and Pilot Workload

Behavioral models are developed that closely reproduced pulsive control response of two pilots using markedly different control techniques while conducting a tracking task. An intriguing find was that the pilots appeared to: 1) produce a continuous, internally-generated stick signal that they integrated in time; 2) integrate the actual stick position; and 3) compare the two integrations to either issue or cease a pulse command. This suggests that the pilots utilized kinesthetic feedback in order to sense and integrate stick position, supporting the hypothesis that pilots can access and employ the proprioceptive inner feedback loop proposed by Hess's pilot Structural Model. A Pilot Cost Index was developed, whose elements include estimated workload, performance, and the degree to which the pilot employs kinesthetic feedback. Preliminary results suggest that a pilot's operating point (parameter values) may be based on control style and index minimization.

Pilot workload↗

Dust and gas absorption in the High Mass X-ray Binary IGR J16318−4848

Context. With an absorption column density on the order of 10(exp 24)per sq. cm, IGR J16318-4848 is one of the most extreme cases of a highly obscured High Mass X-ray Binary. Besides the overall continuum absorption, the source spectrum exhibits a strong iron and nickel fluorescence line complex at 6.4 keV. Previous empirical modeling of these features and comparison with radiative transfer simulations raised questions about the structure and covering fraction of the absorber and the profile of the fluorescence lines. Aims. We aim at a self-consistent description of the continuum absorption, the absorption edges and the fluorescent lines to constrain properties of the absorbing material, such as ionization structure and geometry. We further investigate the effects of dust absorption on the observed spectra and the possibility of fluorescent emission from dust grains. Methods. We use XMM-Newton and NuSTAR spectra to first constrain empirically the incident continuum and fluorescence lines. Next, we use XSTAR to construct a customized photoionization model where we vary the ionization parameter, column density, and covering fraction. In a third step, we model the absorption and fluorescence in a dusty olivine absorber and employ both, a simple analytical model for the fluorescent line emission and Monte Carlo radiative transfer, spectral shapes and line fluxes that are very close to the data are generated. Results. Our empirical spectral modeling is in agreement with previous works. Our second model, the single gas absorber does not describe the observational data. In particular, irrespective of the ionization state or column density of the absorber, a much higher covering fraction than previously estimated is needed to produce the strong fluorescence lines and the large continuum absorption. A dusty, spherical absorber (modeled as consisting of olivine dust, although the nature of dust cannot be constrained) is well able to produce the observed continuum absorption and edges. Conclusions. A dense, dusty absorber in the direct vicinity of the source consisting of dust offers a consistent description of both the strong continuum absorption and the strong emission features in the X-ray spectrum of IGR J16318􀀀4848. In particular, for low optical depth of individual grains the dust will contribute significantly to the fluorescent emission, which is the case for typical densities and grain size distribution models.

Ralf Ballhausen↗

Evaluating the Feasibility of Data Simulation for Radiation Research: Estimating RBE Values for HZE Radiation

As the drive for deep space exploration intensifies, a comprehensive understanding of the health effects of radiation exposure becomes paramount to the future of human space flight. However, epidemiological data for radiation exposure, particularly to high-energy (HZE) ions, is limited, partially due to the financial and logistical costs of radiation studies. As an alternative, this study aims to assess the viability of data simulation strategies to accurately model potential study parameters prior to utilizing laboratory conditions. This study estimates a relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factor based on the solid tumor data for outbred mice provided by Edmundson et al. 2020. Excess relative risk (ERR) models for HZE-Fe ions and gamma radiation were estimated using Poisson regression with Weibull models to represent the background solid tumor hazard without radiation. RBE values were calculated from the ratio of the heavy ion linear slope to the gamma linear slope. The parameters from these models were then applied to simulate iterations of 300 datasets across HZE-Fe doses of 0.05, 0.2, 0.4, and 0.75 Gy; gamma radiation doses of 0.75, 2, and 3 Gy, as well as an unirradiated control group. Sample size per dose varied from 100-500 mice across simulations (800-4000 mice total per dataset). 1500 datasets were generated total (300 each for sample sizes 800, 1600, 3200, and 4000). For each dataset, ERR per radiation type and RBE for HZE-Fe were calculated. The RBE from the Edmondson data was calculated to be 5.55. The RBEs from the simulated data converged around this value across the increasing sample sizes. For n = 4000, the mean RBE across the 300 datasets was 5.71 (95% CI: 5.47-5.95). These results suggest that RBEs calculated from simulated data are credible. Based on this exploration, data simulation is a viable method of testing radiation studies. It provides a method of testing study assumptions and refining research questions prior to embarking on costly laboratory experiments.

Sneha Mehta↗

Probability of Pinching Failure in PWR SNF after Long-Term Storage

A probabilistic assessment was performed on pinching failure of PWR SNF rod cladding under accidental SNF cask transport conditions. a set of 3,000 rod pinching scenarios was analyzed, with different geometrical, material, and loading parameters, using a Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The investigated accidents include train derailments leading to cask collisions or cask drops. Pinching failure was related to cladding offset strain, defined as the plastic deformation interval in radial cladding direction normalized with respect to the outer cladding diameter. Finite element (FE) models were used to compute SNF rod deformations and the offset strain demand OSD in each of the assessed pinching scenarios. The numerical models account for the contribution of the degraded fuel pellets to rod pinching stiffness. The offset strain capacity OSC was computed using regression and interpolation models based on ring compression (RCT) test results, and account for hydride-related effects on cladding ductility. The results show a low probability of pinching failure. Hydride-related cladding embrittlement affects the structural integrity of PWR SNF rods after long-term dry storage of up to 300 years. Radial hydride patterns or large amounts of circumferentially oriented hydrides reduce the cladding ductile deformation capability when pinched at low material temperatures. The probability of hydride-related pinching failure of PWR cladding is estimated after long-term dry storage to address: How do PWR SNF rod conditions like hydrogen content, vacuum drying peak cladding hoop stress σ{sub θ}, and cladding material temperature affect cladding ductility? Is hydride-related cladding embrittlement a material degradation mechanism that affects the structural integrity of PWR SNF rods under pinching loading? What are the controlling parameters for deformation demands in PWR SNF rods under pinching loading? Is the pinching load amplitude an important parameter that controls the probability of pinching failure? How do parameters like pellet-cladding gap or fuel pellet degradation affect the pinching loading capacity of PWR SNF rods? Statistical modelling of PWR SNF rod conditions in U.S. inventory: A pseudo rod database was generated based on EIA database. Analysis of train accident scenarios: a probability density function (pdf) of a pinching load distribution P{sub 9m} of a 9-m cask drop is linearly scaled to generate a more representative: distribution P{sub AS}. The new distribution considers train collision velocities, cask drops for on- and off-bridge accidents, and cask impact orientation. LHS generates 3,000 rod pinching scenarios based on nine independent geometrical, material, and loading parameters. Probabilistic FE Analysis: The LHS realizations are used to generate 3,000 FE models. The FE analysis is conducted for P{sub 9m}, and P{sub AS}. The workflow is automatized. The OSC is computed with regression and interpolation models, as a function of the hydrogen content C{sub H}, vacuum drying peak σ{sub θ}, and SNF temperature T{sub FR}: The regression data was obtained in RCTs on PWR cladding. The OSD is derived from the cladding deformations in the FE models. Cladding failure was identified via a comparison of OSC and OSD. A 300 and a 30 years-of-dry-storage duration is investigated: The dry-storage period affects the expected SNF temperature and consequently, the OSC and the OSD. The material temperature LHS population is adapted to account for a SNF temperature variation. The probability of hydride-related, ductile cladding failure during a severe transportation accident is not significantly affected by the pinching load amplitude: The probability is slightly reduced from a range of less than 0.0333% to 0.1667% for P{sub 9m}, to a range of less than 0.0333% to 0.1333% for P{sub AS}, depending on the vacuum drying peak cladding hoop stress modelling assumptions. Further, the SNF dry-storage duration does not significantly affect the probability of ductile pinching failure. Based on available train accidents data, the pinching failure probability for a 5,000 km long transportation route ranges from less than 1.62 E-7 to a value of 6.47 E-7, depending on the vacuum drying peak cladding hoop stress modelling assumptions. The pinching load amplitude is not a controlling parameter for the probability of ductile cladding pinching failure, and does not control the cladding deformations once pellet-cladding contact is established, The pellet-cladding gap width, however, plays a key role. Fuel pellet degradation only affects the deformation capacity, if the pellet stiffness is significantly reduced (more than 90%). Only highly embrittled cladding is likely to fail. The deformation demands on the cladding under pinching loading are small.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Bayesian optimization to design a novel x-ray shaping device

In radiation therapy, x-ray dose must be precisely sculpted to the tumor, while simultaneously avoiding surrounding organs at risk. This requires modulation of x-ray intensity in space and/or time. Typically, this is achieved using a multi leaf collimator (MLC) - a complex mechatronic device comprising over one hundred individually powered tungsten ‘leaves’ that move in or out of the radiation field as required. Here, an all-electronic x-ray collimation concept with no moving parts is presented, termed “SPHINX”: Scanning Pencil-beam High-speed Intensity-modulated X-ray source. SPHINX utilizes a spatially distributed bremsstrahlung target and collimator array in conjunction with magnetic scanning of a high energy electron beam to generate a plurality of small x-ray “beamlets.” A simulation framework was developed in Topas Monte Carlo incorporating a phase space electron source, transport through user defined magnetic fields, bremsstrahlung x-ray production, transport through a SPHINX collimator, and dose in water. This framework was completely parametric, meaning a simulation could be built and run for any supplied geometric parameters. This functionality was coupled with Bayesian optimization to find the best parameter set based on an objective function which included terms to maximize dose rate for a user defined beamlet width while constraining inter-channel cross talk and electron contamination. Designs for beamlet widths of 5, 7, and 10 mm 2 were generated. Each optimization was run for 300 iterations and took approximately 40 h on a 24-core computer. For the optimized 7-mm model, a simulation of all beamlets in water was carried out including a linear scanning magnet calibration simulation. Finally, a back-of-envelope dose rate formalism was developed and used to estimate dose rate under various conditions. The optimized 5–, 7–, and 10-mm models had beamlet widths of 5.1 , 7.2 , and 10.1 mm 2 and dose rates of 3574, 6351, and 10 015 Gy/C, respectively. The reduction in dose rate for smaller beamlet widths is a result of both increased collimation and source occlusion. For the simulation of all beamlets in water, the scanning magnet calibration reduced the offset between the collimator channels and beam centroids from 2.9 ±1.9 mm to 0.01 ±0.03 mm. A slight reduction in dose rate of approximately 2% per degree of scanning angle was observed. Based on a back-of-envelope dose rate formalism, SPHINX in conjunction with next-generation linear accelerators has the potential to achieve substantially higher dose rates than conventional MLC-based delivery, with delivery of an intensity modulated 100 x 100 mm 2 field achievable in 0.9 to 10.6 s depending on the beamlet widths used. Bayesian optimization was coupled with Monte Carlo modeling to generate SPHINX geometries for various beamlet widths. A complete Monte Carlo simulation for one of these designs was developed, including electron beam transport of all beamlets through scanning magnets, x-ray production and collimation, and dose in water. These results demonstrate that SPHINX is a promising candidate for sculpting radiation dose with no moving parts, and has the potential to vastly improve both the speed and robustness of radiotherapy delivery. A multi-beam SPHINX system may be a candidate for delivering magavoltage FLASH RT in humans.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Performance and Cost Assessment of a Coal Gasification Power Plant Integrated with a Direct-Fired sCO 2 Brayton Cycle

The objective of this study is to develop a cost and performance baseline for a coal syngas-fueled, direct-fired supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power plant using coal gasification, and to analyze the sensitivity of its cost and performance to variations in operating parameter and cost assumptions. The study results yield a sCO2 baseline plant efficiency of 37.7% (HHV), with 97.6% carbon capture at 99.8% purity, much higher than the reference integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant using the same Shell gasifier (31.2% efficiency, 90% carbon capture). The economic analysis estimates a cost of electricity (COE) of $137/MWh for the mature, commercial-scale sCO2 plant (without CO2 transport and storage costs), yielding a 10% reduction in COE from the reference IGCC case. These results demonstrate the significant potential of direct sCO2 power cycles for achieving DOE’s transformational power generation goals for coal-fueled power plants with carbon capture and storage.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Improving Rotor-Stator Interaction Noise Code Through Analysis of Input Parameters

There are two major sources of aircraft noise. The first is from the airframe and the second is from the engines. The focus of the acoustics branch at NASA Glenn is on the engine noise sources. There are two major sources of engine noise; fan noise and jet noise. Fan noise, produced by rotating machinery of the engine, consists of both tonal noise, which occurs at discrete frequencies, and broadband noise, which occurs across a wide range of frequencies. The focus of my assignment is on the broadband noise generated by the interaction of fan flow turbulence and the stator blades. such as the sweep and stagger angles and blade count, as well as the flow parameters such as intensity of turbulence in the flow. The tool I employed in this work is a computer program that predicts broadband noise from fans. The program assumes that the complex shape of the curved blade can be represented as a single flat plate, allowing it to use fairly simple equations that can be solved in a reasonable amount of time. While the results from such representation provided reasonable estimates of the broadband noise levels, they did not usually represent the entire spectrum accurately. My investigation found that the discrepancy between data and theory can be improved if the leading edge and the trailing edge of the blade are treated separately. Using this approach, I reduced the maximum error in noise level from a high of 30% to less than 5% for the cases investigated. Detailed results of this investigation will be discussed at my presentation. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of geometric parameters

Unton, Timothy J.↗

A Method for Landsat and Sentinel 2 (HLS) BRDF Normalization

The Harmonized Landsat/Sentinel-2 (HLS) project aims to generate a seamless surface reflectance product by combining observations from USGS/NASA Landsat-8 and ESA Sentinel-2 remote sensing satellites. These satellites’ sampling characteristics provide nearly constant observation geometry and low illumination variation through the scene. However, the illumination variation throughout the year impacts the surface reflectance by producing higher values for low solar zenith angles and lower reflectance for large zenith angles. In this work, we present a model to derive the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) normalization and apply it to the HLS product at 30m spatial resolution. It is based on the BRDF parameters estimated from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance product (M{O,Y}D09) at 1 km spatial resolution using the VJB method (Vermote et al., 2009). Unsupervised classification (segmentation) of HLS images is used to disaggregate the BRDF parameters to the HLS spatial resolution and to build a BRDF parameters database at HLS scale. We first test the proposed BRDF normalization for different solar zenith angles over two homogeneous sites, in particular one desert and one Peruvian Amazon forest. The proposed method reduces both the correlation with the solar zenith angle and the coefficient of variation (CV) of the reflectance time series in the red and near infrared bands to 4% in forest and keeps a low CV of 3% to 4% for the deserts. Additionally, we assess the impact of the view zenith angle (VZA) in an area of the Brazilian Amazon forest close to the equator, where impact of the angular variation is stronger because it occurs in the principal plane. The directional reflectance shows a strong dependency with the VZA. The current HLS BRDF correction reduces this dependency but still shows an under-correction, especially in the near infrared, while the proposed method shows no dependency with the view angles. We also evaluate the BRDF parameters using field surface albedo measurements as a reference over seven different sites of the US surface radiation budget observing network (SURFRAD) and five sites of the Australian OzFlux network.

Belen Franch↗

Sensitivity analysis, surrogate modeling, and optimization of pebble-bed reactors considering normal and accident conditions

This research provides a valuable tool that streamlines the optimization process while significantly increasing its accuracy. This study creates a robust framework for reactor design optimization by incorporating comprehensive modeling using the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). BlueCRAB is the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's code suite for non-light water reactor analysis and includes the Griffin, Pronghorn, and Bison applications. This not only improves the efficiency of the optimization process but also enhances the reliability of the results. Such a tool is essential for advancing the state-of-the-art in pebble-bed reactor technology and is critical for achieving the goals of Generation IV reactors, which aim for safe, sustainable, and economically viable nuclear energy solutions. This work presents and applies this workflow on pebble-bed reactors while considering both normal and off-normal conditions. A representative gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor at equilibrium core conditions serves as the nominal design specification for normal operation and is based on previous research. The depressurized loss-of-forced-cooling accident is deployed for off-normal conditions in this work. After defining design-related parameters and quantities of interest regarding reactor safety and performance, this multiphysics model is sampled using the MOOSE stochastic tools module. The result is a comprehensive dataset of configurations, enabling sensitivity analysis and the generation of surrogate models. Subsequently, the dataset and surrogate models are employed in two optimization studies aimed at maximizing fuel utilization and economic profit while adhering to safety and operational constraints. Performing the optimization process with fuel utilization as the metric leads to an improvement of approximately 10%, compared to engineering-judgment-based nominal conditions. The optimization on economic profit leads to an estimated increase of ~300 million USD over the lifetime of the reactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗