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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Evidence of TeV halos around millisecond pulsars

Using data from the HAWC gamma-ray Telescope, we have studied a sample of 37 millisecond pulsars (MSPs), selected for their spindown power and proximity. From among these MSP, we have identified four which favor the presence of very high-energy gamma-ray emission at a level of (2Δ ln L) 1/2 ≥ 2.5. Adopting a correlation between the spindown power and gamma-ray luminosity of each pulsar, we performed a stacked likelihood analysis of these 37 MSPs, finding that the data supports the conclusion that these sources emit very high-energy gamma-rays at a level of (2Δ ln L) 1/2 = 4.24. Among sets of randomly selected sky locations within HAWC’s field-of-view, less than 1% of such realizations yielded such high statistical significance. Our analysis suggests that MSPs produce very high-energy gamma-ray emission with a similar efficiency to that observed from the Geminga TeV-halo, η MSP = (0.39 - 1.08) x η Geminga . So this conclusion poses a significant challenge for pulsar interpretations of the Galactic Center gamma-ray excess, as it suggests that any population of MSPs potentially capable of producing the GeV excess would also produce TeV-scale emission in excess of that observed by HESS from this region. Future observations by CTA will be able to substantially clarify this situation

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The weakly nonlinear response and nonaffine interpretation of the Johnson–Segalman/Gordon–Schowalter model

We derive new analytical solutions for the non-affine Johnson-Segalman/Gordon-Schowalter (JS/GS) constitutive equation with a general relaxation kernel in medium-amplitude oscillatory shear (MAOS) deformation. The results show time-strain separable (TSS) nonlinearity, therefore providing new physically-meaningful interpretation to the heuristic TSS nonlinear parameter in MAOS. The upper-convected, lower-convected, and corotational Maxwell models are all subsets of the results presented here. The model assumes that the microscale elements causing stress in the material slip compared to the continuum deformation. We introduce a visualization of the non-affine deformation field that acts on stress-generating elements to reinforce the hysical interpretation of the JS/GS class of models. Lastly, a case study is presented where previously published results, from fitting TSS models to MAOS data, can be re-interpreted based on the concept of non-affine motion of the JS/GS framework.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

DEEPEN 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. Part of the DEEPEN project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology is based on the method proposed by Poux et al. (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., 2022. For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. More information on this process is described in the following sections. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty. There are two different versions of the Leapfrog model and associated favorability models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.1: The second release, with improvements made to the earthquake catalog (included additional identified events, removed duplicate events), to the temperature model (fixed a deep BHT), and to the index models (updated the seismicity-heat source index models for supercritical and EGS, and the resistivity-insulation index models for all three play types). Also uses the jet color map rather than the magma color map for improved interpretability. - v2.1.1: Updated to include v2.0 uncertainty results (see below for uncertainty model versions) There are two different versions of the associated uncertainty models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.0: The se...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The role of stiffness in training and generalization of ResNets

Neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) have recently regained popularity as large-depth limits of a large class of neural networks. In particular, residual neural networks (ResNets) are equivalent to an explicit Euler discretization of an underlying NODE, where the transition from one layer to the next is one time step of the discretization. The relationship between continuous and discrete neural networks has been of particular interest. Notably, analysis from the ordinary differential equation viewpoint can potentially lead to new insights for understanding the behavior of neural networks in general. In this work, we take inspiration from differential equations to define the concept of stiffness for a ResNet via the interpretation of a ResNet as the discretization of a NODE. Here, we then examine the effects of stiffness on the ability of a ResNet to generalize, via computational studies on example problems coming from climate and chemistry models. We find that penalizing stiffness does have a unique regularizing effect, but we see no benefit to penalizing stiffness over L 2 regularization (penalization of network parameter norms) in terms of predictive performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

pyEGAF: An open-source Python library for the Evaluated Gamma-ray Activation File

The Evaluated Gamma-ray Activation File (EGAF) is one of the most comprehensive resources for thermal neutron-capture data. This database contains data from prompt gamma activation analysis measurements carried out in a consistent manner using the same experimental configuration at the Budapest Research Reactor for 245 isotopes. Although these valuable datasets have been freely available for many years, one of the drawbacks is the outdated and cryptic Evaluated Nuclear Structure Data File (ENSDF) format that is currently adopted for dissemination, making it difficult for users unfamiliar with the format to access and utilize the data contained therein. Furthermore, the ENSDF format does not readily lend itself to modern computational technologies and a parser is required to interpret the complicated mixed-record format. To help overcome these challenges, we have developed a translator to convert the ENSDF-formatted datasets into an open standard JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) format enabling accessibility to applications using different programming languages running in different environments. To compliment this effort, we have also developed an open-source software package implemented in Python, pyEGAF, that is designed to interact with the JSON data structures for general purpose access, manipulation, and analysis of the neutron-capture $\gamma$-ray data in EGAF. The new format, together with the pyEGAF library, greatly enhances access to the wider applications community where EGAF data may be useful or is required.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Engineering Relaxor Behavior in (BaTiO 3 ) n /(SrTiO 3 ) n Superlattices

Complex-oxide superlattices provide a pathway to numerous emergent phenomena because of the juxtaposition of disparate properties and the strong interfacial interactions in these unit-cell-precise structures. This is particularly true in superlattices of ferroelectric and dielectric materials, wherein new forms of ferroelectricity, exotic dipolar textures, and distinctive domain structures can be produced. Here, in this study, relaxor-like behavior, typically associated with the chemical inhomogeneity and complexity of solid solutions, is observed in (BaTiO 3 ) n /(SrTiO 3 ) n (n = 4–20 unit cells) superlattices. Dielectric studies and subsequent Vogel–Fulcher analysis show significant frequency dispersion of the dielectric maximum across a range of periodicities, with enhanced dielectric constant and more robust relaxor behavior for smaller period n. Bond-valence molecular-dynamics simulations predict the relaxor-like behavior observed experimentally, and interpretations of the polar patterns via 2D discrete-wavelet transforms in shorter-period superlattices suggest that the relaxor behavior arises from shape variations of the dipolar configurations, in contrast to frozen antipolar stripe domains in longer-period superlattices (n = 16). Moreover, the size and shape of the dipolar configurations are tuned by superlattice periodicity, thus providing a definitive design strategy to use superlattice layering to create relaxor-like behavior which may expand the ability to control desired properties in these complex systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for dark matter produced in association with a Higgs boson decaying to tau leptons at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for dark matter produced in association with a Higgs boson in final states with two hadronically decaying τ-leptons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis uses 139 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider between 2015 and 2018. No evidence of physics beyond the Standard Model is found. The results are interpreted in terms of a 2HDM+a model featuring two scalar Higgs doublets and a pseudoscalar singlet field. Exclusion limits on the parameters of the model in selected benchmark scenarios are derived at 95% confidence level. Model-independent limits are also set on the visible cross-section for processes beyond the Standard Model producing missing transverse momentum in association with a Higgs boson decaying into τ-leptons.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring the tempering behaviour of additively manufactured high-alloy tool steel using synchrotron X-ray and neutron techniques

Post-processing heat treatment provides a critical pathway toward the commercialisation of additively manufactured (AM) S390 high-speed steel, which is a representative high-alloy tool steel employed in precision manufacturing, offering up to 1.5 times longer tool life and over 20% higher cutting speeds compared to conventional grades. In this study, the phase evolution of AM S390 steel during heat treatment, with particular emphasis on carbide precipitation behaviour, was systematically investigated using a combination of synchrotron X-ray and neutron techniques. The metastable M2C carbides were found to dissolve during austenitisation, while the stable primary carbides MC and M6C experienced coarsening with an average size increase of about 60 nm after just 2 min of tempering. Moreover, the austenite lattice parameters reduced from 3.618 to 3.608 Å within the first 10 min of tempering, suggesting carbon depletion in the steel matrix was likely associated with the formation of secondary carbides. This interpretation was substantiated by small-angle scattering results, which revealed the presence of nanoscale precipitates with a volume fraction of 3.1% after 60 min of tempering. These microstructural evolutions collectively accounted for the observed peak hardness of 921 HV. Furthermore, a comparative analysis of synchrotron and neutron small-angle scattering data highlighted the complementary strengths of each technique, offering critical insight into their suitability for characterising nanoscale features in AM high-alloy steels.

Synchrotron X-ray diffraction↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep learning uncertainty quantification for clinical text classification

Machine learning algorithms are expected to work side-by-side with humans in decision-making pipelines. Thus, the ability of classifiers to make reliable decisions is of paramount importance. Deep neural networks (DNNs) represent the state-of-the-art models to address real-world classification. Although the strength of activation in DNNs is often correlated with the network’s confidence, in-depth analyses are needed to establish whether they are well calibrated. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of DNN-based classification tools to benefit cancer registries by automating information extraction of disease at diagnosis and at surgery from electronic text pathology reports from the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) population-based cancer registries. In particular, we introduce multiple methods for selective classification to achieve a target level of accuracy on multiple classification tasks while minimizing the rejection amount—that is, the number of electronic pathology reports for which the model’s predictions are unreliable. We evaluate the proposed methods by comparing our approach with the current in-house deep learning-based abstaining classifier. Overall, all the proposed selective classification methods effectively allow for achieving the targeted level of accuracy or higher in a trade-off analysis aimed to minimize the rejection rate. On in-distribution validation and holdout test data, with all the proposed methods, we achieve on all tasks the required target level of accuracy with a lower rejection rate than the deep abstaining classifier (DAC). Interpreting the results for the out-of-distribution test data is more complex; nevertheless, in this case as well, the rejection rate from the best among the proposed methods achieving 97% accuracy or higher is lower than the rejection rate based on the DAC. We show that although both approaches can flag those samples that should be manually reviewed and labeled by human annotators, the newly proposed methods retain a larger fraction and do so without retraining—thus offering a reduced computational cost compared with the in-house deep learning-based abstaining classifier.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Aging power spectrum of membrane protein transport and other subordinated random walks

Single-particle tracking offers detailed information about the motion of molecules in complex environments such as those encountered in live cells, but the interpretation of experimental data is challenging. One of the most powerful tools in the characterization of random processes is the power spectral density. However, because anomalous diffusion processes in complex systems are usually not stationary, the traditional Wiener-Khinchin theorem for the analysis of power spectral densities is invalid. Here, we employ a recently developed tool named aging Wiener-Khinchin theorem to derive the power spectral density of fractional Brownian motion coexisting with a scale-free continuous time random walk, the two most typical anomalous diffusion processes. Using this analysis, we characterize the motion of voltage-gated sodium channels on the surface of hippocampal neurons. Our results show aging where the power spectral density can either increase or decrease with observation time depending on the specific parameters of both underlying processes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing multi-source urban flood indicators: satellite, simulation, and citizen-reported data

Urban flooding arises from complex mechanisms, making it challenging to capture accurately with a single detection method. This study evaluates three complementary approaches to detect flooding across three Chicago neighborhoods: (i) Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR), offering weather-independent, high-resolution (10 m) imagery of surface inundation; (ii) the storm water management model (SWMM), simulating combined sewer overflow and drainage performance; and (iii) citizen-generated 311 service requests, capturing observed flooding impacts. By analyzing six storms ranging from severe to mild, we examine how each source uniquely contributes to identifying urban flood events. SAR imagery effectively identifies standing water but can miss brief flooding due to satellite revisit constraints. SWMM provides detailed insights into system-wide drainage behavior yet may underestimate localized street-level flooding. Meanwhile, 311 calls reflect real-world flooding impacts but are vulnerable to underreporting. Statistical overlap analysis highlights chronic flood hotspots repeatedly identified across multiple detection methods, indicating persistent infrastructure and topographic vulnerabilities. Temporal analysis further reveals that while SWMM flooding aligns closely with rainfall peaks, 311 calls typically precede or persist beyond these peaks. Our findings emphasize the value of using satellite observations, hydrological modeling, and resident-reported data in a complementary manner to better interpret patterns in flood timing, severity, and spatial distribution—providing insights that can inform targeted infrastructure improvements and contribute to urban flood resilience planning.

311↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainties due to optical potentials in one-neutron knockout reactions

One-neutron knockout reactions have been widely used to extract information about the single-particle structure of nuclei from the valley of stability to the drip lines. The interpretation of knockout data relies on reaction models, where the uncertainties are typically not accounted for. In this work, we quantify uncertainties of optical potentials used in these reaction models and propagate them, for the first time, to knockout observables using a Bayesian analysis. We study two reactions in the present paper, the first of which involves a loosely bound halo projectile, 11 Be, and the second a tightly bound projectile, 12 C. We first quantify the parametric uncertainties associated with phenomenological optical potentials. Complementing this approach, we also quantify the model uncertainties associated with the chiral forces that can be used to construct microscopic optical potentials. For the phenomenological study, we investigate the impact of the imaginary terms of the optical potential on the breakup and stripping components of the knockout cross sections as well as the impact of the angular range. For the 11 Be case, the theoretical uncertainty from the phenomenological method is on the order of the experimental uncertainty of the knockout observables; however, for the 12 C case, the theoretical uncertainty is significantly larger. Additionally, the widths of the uncertainty bands for the knockout observables obtained for the microscopic study and the phenomenological approach are of similar orders of magnitude. Based on this work we conclude that structure information inferred from the ratio of the knockout cross sections will carry a theoretical uncertainty of at least 20% for halo nuclei and at least 40% for tightly bound nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

MIDAS: Modeling Individual Differences using Advanced Statistics

This research explores novel methods for extracting relevant information from EEG data to characterize individual differences in cognitive processing. Our approach combines expertise in machine learning, statistics, and cognitive science, advancing the state-of-the art in all three domains. Specifically, by using cognitive science expertise to interpret results and inform algorithm development, we have developed a generalizable and interpretable machine learning method that can accurately predict individual differences in cognition. The output of the machine learning method revealed surprising features of the EEG data that, when interpreted by the cognitive science experts, provided novel insights to the underlying cognitive task. Additionally, the outputs of the statistical methods show promise as a principled approach to quickly find regions within the EEG data where individual differences lie, thereby supporting cognitive science analysis and informing machine learning models. This work lays methodological ground work for applying the large body of cognitive science literature on individual differences to high consequence mission applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Supporting Risk-informed Decision-making During Reactor Accidents

Uncertainty in severe accident evolution and outcome is driven by event bifurcations that represent distinctive challenges to defensive layers and tend to promote the emergence of discrete classes of core damage and accident risk. This discrete set of "attractor" states arise from the complex networks of competing physical phenomena and conditional event cascades occurring as the overall system degrades – a process that yields increasing degrees of freedom and accident progression pathways. Characterization of these event spaces has proven elusive to more traditional data interrogation methods, but proves tractable by application of more advanced data collection and machine learning approaches. Through application of these approaches we demonstrate a conceptual framework that enables real-time/robust, risk-informed decision-making support to improve accident mitigation and encourage “graceful exits” during low probability, extreme events limiting accident consequences. In this analysis, we simulated over 8,000 short-term station blackout (STSBO) accidents with the state-of-the-art integral severe accident code, MELCOR, and demonstrate the potential for ML approaches to predict simulation outcomes. We chose to pair ML tools with interpretable and mechanistic event trees for the considered STSBO accident space to predict the likelihood of future event paths along the tree. In addition to the current state of the system, we use information from recent trajectories of temperature, pressure, and other physical features, combining both the current state and past trajectories to forecast future event paths. Finally, we simulate the random injection of variable amounts of water to quantify the efficacy of available actions at reducing risks along the many branches in the event tree. We identify scenarios and windows of opportunity to mitigate risk as well as scenarios in which such actions are unlikely to alter the accident end-state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Geology of the One Earth Energy Site

The One Earth Energy site is one of two sites in the Illinois Storage Corridor (ISC) project. The objectives of the ISC project is to accelerate commercial deployment of carbon capture utilization and storage at two individual sites and receive approvals for Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI permits for construction at each site. At the One Earth Energy site, an extensive data collection program was undertaken, which included the drilling of a test well (One Earth Energy #1 [OEE #1]), four 2D seismic lines, and a small 3D seismic survey. The OEE #1 well was drilled in 2022 and acquired extensive core, log, and testing data to characterize the subsurface geology of the site. Coring was focused on the storage interval, the Mt. Simon Sandstone, and the confining interval, the Eau Claire Formation. The core and log data were used to evaluate the sedimentology and sequence stratigraphy, as well as to develop the conceptual geologic model. This report includes the geological summaries of the Mt. Simon Sandstone and the Eau Claire Formation. The extensive analysis of the log data is included in the petrophysical section, showing ranges of porosity, estimated pore size, and the mineral content of selected zones in the well. The separate petrographic technical report entitled “Petrographic and Advanced Geologic Characterization Report on One Earth Energy #1 (API# 1211325373)”, report number DOE-UIUC-0031892-04, details thin section point-counting analysis that includes mineralogical and pore space analysis, including grain size analysis, annotated thin section photomicrographs, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), and statistics of grain size analysis on Mt. Simon thin sections from OEE #1. The final OEE #1 well data to be included in this geology report is the routine core analysis of both whole core plugs and rotary sidewall core plugs. In addition to the OEE #1 well, four 2D seismic lines and a small 3D survey were acquired as part of the overall subsurface geological characterization. This geology report references the seismic interpretation report, entitled “One Earth Energy Site Seismic Interpretation Task 5.0”, report number DOE-UIUC-0031892-07. This report details the stratigraphic and structural interpretation of the 2D and 3D seismic data acquired at the One Earth Energy site. The 2D seismic data was acquired in 2019 and 2021, and the 3D survey was acquired in 2022. The objectives of the seismic programs were to contribute to the subsurface characterization of the Mt. Simon-Eau Claire Storage Complex by evaluating the continuity of potential storage reservoirs and containment intervals across the project area, and to determine if any geologic features are present that would increase containment risk to the proposed carbon storage project.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A mathematical approach to survey electrochemical impedance spectroscopy for aging in lithium-ion batteries

Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) is a valuable technique to detect the health status and aging phenomena in lithium-ion batteries (LiB). Equivalent circuit modeling (ECM) is conventionally used when interpreting EIS data and gaining physical insights into the aging mechanisms. However, performing ECM is resource intensive and expert-level of knowledge is usually required to select suitable models and fitting parameters. This article presents a quick and user-friendly data analysis algorithm as an alternative to ECM by mathematically fitting geometric features in Nyquist plots and obtaining the growth trends of the features. The evolving trends in the Nyquist plots, such as chord lengths of the arcs and interception points, are consistent with the growth of resistance components obtained using ECM with R 2 values from 0.67 to 0.99, and therefore can be used as indicators of battery aging. Our results show that the quick-fitting approach is suitable for analyzing a series of EIS data acquired during battery cycling and identifying the underlying aging mechanisms.

Chen, Bor-Rong↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Experimental Kinetics Study of Isopropanol Pyrolysis and Oxidation behind Reflected Shock Waves

Isopropanol has potential as a future bio-derived fuel and is a promising substitute for ethanol in gasoline blends. Even so, little has been done in terms of high-temperature chemical kinetic speciation studies of this molecule. To this end, experiments were conducted in a shock tube using simultaneous CO and H2O laser absorption measurements. Water and CO formation during isopropanol pyrolysis was also examined at temperatures between 1127 and 2162 K at an average pressure of 1.42 atm. Species profiles were collected at temperatures between 1332 and 1728 K and at an average pressure of 1.26 atm for equivalence ratios of 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 in highly diluted mixtures of 20% helium and 79.5% argon. Species profiles were also compared to four modern C3 alcohol mechanisms, including the impact of recent rate constant measurements. The Li et al. (2019) and Saggese et al. (2021) models both best predict CO and water production under pyrolysis conditions, while the AramcoMech 3.0 and Capriolo and Konnov models better predict the oxidation experimental profiles. Additionally, previous studies have collected ignition delay time (τign) data for isopropanol but are limited to low pressures in highly dilute mixtures. Therefore, real fuel–air experiments were conducted in a heated shock tube with isopropanol for stoichiometric and lean conditions at 10 and 25 atm between 942 and 1428 K. Comparisons to previous experimental results highlight the need for real fuel–air experiments and proper interpretation of shock-tube data. The AramcoMech 3.0 model over predicts τign values, while the Li et al. model severely under predicts τign. The models by Capriolo and Konnov and Saggese et al. show good agreement with experimental τign values. A sensitivity analysis using these two models highlights the underlying chemistry for isopropanol combustion at 25 atm. Additionally, modifying the Li et al. model with a recently measured reaction rate shows improvement in the model’s ability to predict CO and water profiles during dilute oxidation. Finally, a regression analysis was performed to quantify τign results from this study.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

EGS Stimulation Design with Uncertainty Quantification at the EGS Collab Site

Engineering a robust hydraulic connection between wells is one of the most difficult aspects of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Designing and constructing such hydraulic connections requires and understanding of the in situ state of stress and the heterogeneities and discontinuities that naturally exist and may control the stimulation. Even with comprehensive stress and formation characterization programs substantial uncertainty remains in these key parameters. This is especially the case in high-temperature EGS environments where drilling conditions are often difficult and a far fewer logging and testing options are available. This paper presents a new approach for explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the state of stress using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. This approach produces a probability distribution for the stress tensor, including a general 3D orientation, that reflects the uncertainties in all the observations or indicators used to constrain the stress state. This method is demonstrated on the characterization data for the EGS Collab Experiment 2 site. The output of the analysis is used to guide the design of the planned stimulations. In the case of research projects like EGS Collab, explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the stress state allow for more rigorous hypothesis testing by allowing conclusions drawn from the experiments to be interpreted in the context of the uncertain knowledge about conditions in the test bed.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗