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DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of a multi-scale WRF-CAM5 simulation during the 2010 East Asian Summer Monsoon

The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) with the physics package of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) has been applied at multiple scales over Eastern China (EC) and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) to evaluate how increased horizontal resolution with physics designed for a coarser resolution climate model impacts aerosols and clouds, and the resulting precipitation characteristics and performance during the 2010 East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Despite large underpredictions in surface aerosol concentrations and aerosol optical depth, there is good spatial agreement with surface observations of chemical predictions, and increasing spatial resolution tends to improve performance. Model bias and normalized root mean square values for precipitation predictions are relatively small, but there are significant differences when comparing modeled and observed probability density functions for precipitation in EC and YRD. Increasing model horizontal resolution tends to reduce model bias and error for precipitation predictions. The surface and column aerosol loading is maximized between about 32N and 42N in early to mid-May during the 2010 EASM, and then shifts north while decreasing in magnitude during July and August. Changing model resolution moderately changes the spatiotemporal relationships between aerosols, cloud properties, and precipitation during the EASM, thus demonstrating the importance of model grid resolution in simulating EASM circulation and rainfall patterns over EC and the YRD. Results from this work demonstrate the capability and limitations in the aerosol, cloud, and precipitation representation of WRF-CAM5 for regional-scale applications down to relatively fine horizontal resolutions. Further WRF-CAM5 model development and application in this area is needed.

Campbell, Patrick↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sodium Fire Collaborative Study Progress -- CNWG Fiscal Year 2020

This report discusses the progress on the collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) on the sodium fire research in fiscal year 2020. First, the current sodium pool fire model in MELCOR, which is adapted from CONTAIN-LMR code, is discussed. The associated sodium fire input requirements are also presented. These input requirements are flexible enough to permit further model development via control functions to enhance the current model without modifying the source code. The theoretical pool fire model improvement developed at Sandia is discussed. A control function model has been developed from this improvement. Then, the validation study of the sodium pool fire model in MELCOR carried out by both Sandia and JAEA’s staff is described. To validate this pool fire model with the enhancement, a JAEA sodium pool fire experiment (F7-1 test) is used. The results of the calculation are discussed as well as suggestions for further model improvement. Finally, recommendations are made for new MELCOR simulations for next fiscal year, 2021.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Adsorbents and adsorption models for capture of Kr and Xe gas mixtures in fixed-bed columns

Off-gases produced during the reprocessing of used nuclear fuel (UNF) include 129-I 2 , 3-HHO, 14-CO 2 , 85-Kr, and 135-Xe, which are volatilized out into the off-gas. In order to meet regulatory requirements for reprocessing plant emissions, these gases must be captured and removed from the o?-gas stream prior to o?-gas emission. Of particular interest are the noble gases, Kr and Xe, which can be fairly difficult to remove from the off-gas due to their low chemical reactivity. Thus, this work is focused on utilizing engineered adsorbents, AgZ-PAN and HZ-PAN, to capture Kr and Xe from a mixed-gas stream at relatively low temperatures (191–295 K) and various flow rates (50–2000 mL/min). Isothermal data for Kr and Xe on each adsorbent are analyzed to produce the Langmuir parameters needed to model the mixture adsorption capacities at relevant temperatures using the Extended Langmuir model. Those parameters are then incorporated into a fixed-bed adsorption model developed in this work using the Mulitphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). That model is used to simulate breakthrough times for Kr and Xe in packed columns of AgZ-PAN and HZ-PAN, ranging in length from 6 to 20 in., at relevant temperatures and flow rates. Breakthrough times varied from nearly instantaneous for Kr in AgZ-PAN to 30 h for Xe in HZ-PAN. After the developed model was validated by comparisons with experimental break-through data, the model framework was used to simulate the performance of multiple fixed-bed columns connected in series.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Using explanatory crop models to develop simple tools for Advanced Life Support system studies

System-level analyses for Advanced Life Support require mathematical models for various processes, such as for biomass production and waste management, which would ideally be integrated into overall system models. Explanatory models (also referred to as mechanistic or process models) would provide the basis for a more robust system model, as these would be based on an understanding of specific processes. However, implementing such models at the system level may not always be practicable because of their complexity. For the area of biomass production, explanatory models were used to generate parameters and multivariable polynomial equations for basic models that are suitable for estimating the direction and magnitude of daily changes in canopy gas-exchange, harvest index, and production scheduling for both nominal and off-nominal growing conditions. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

DOE OSTI2017

M4SF-17LL010301071: Thermodynamic Database Development

This progress report (Level 4 Milestone Number M4SF-17LL010301071) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite Disposal R&D Work Package Number M4SF-17LL01030107. The DR Argillite Disposal R&D control account is focused on the evaluation of important processes in the analysis of disposal design concepts and related materials for nuclear fuel disposal in clay-bearing repository media. The objectives of this work package are to develop model tools for evaluating impacts of THMC process on long-term disposal of spent fuel in argillite rocks, and to establish the scientific basis for high thermal limits. This work is contributing to the GDSA model activities to identify gaps, develop process models, provide parameter feeds and support requirements providing the capability for a robust repository performance assessment model by 2020.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simultaneous Development and Robust Optimization of a Microstructure Dependent Material

Recent microstructure characterization techniques combined with Symbolic Regression(SR)analysis has been proven to generate white box plasticity models well suited for incorporation into FEA software.The current work builds upon those efforts and demonstrates the applicability of Sequential Monte-Carlo (SMC) methods within SR analysis to condense model development and robust optimization into a single, co-dependent process. In this project, SMC methods provide a mechanism through which the observed microstructure features and associated variability can be incorporated into the discovery phase of model development and simultaneously recover approximate parameter distributions through SR analysis. The demonstration utilized a data set consisting of tensile test results from a limited number of sample specimens with corresponding EBSD data from which microstructure features were characterized.The maximum threshold stress model in the Visco-Plastic Self-Consistent (VPSC) code developed by Los Alamos National Laboratories was calibrated using mechanical test data.Synthetic volume elements with statistically equivalent microstructure were generated with DREAM3Dbased on the observed EBSD data. VPSC was used to simulate the corresponding tensile test response for each of the synthetic volume elements. The simulated microstructure and tensile test data was used astraining datafor SMC-SR algorithm and the resulting model was validated with data from the original empirical data set.

Karl Garbrecht↗

NASA NTRS2022

Kamodo’s Model-Agnostic Satellite Flythrough: Lowering the Utilization Barrier for Heliophysics Model Outputs

Heliophysics model outputs are increasingly accessible, but typically are not usable by the majority of the community unless directly collaborating with the relevant model developers. Prohibitive factors include complex file output formats, cryptic metadata, unspecified and often customized coordinate systems, and non-linear coordinate grids. Some pockets of progress exist, giving interfaces to various simulation outputs, but only for a small set of outputs and typically not with open-source, freely available packages. Additionally, the increasing array of tools built upon these sporadic interfaces are typically model-specific. We present Kamodo’s model-agnostic satellite flythrough capabilities as the solution to the utilization barrier for heliophysics model outputs. Developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, these flythrough capabilities are built in Python upon a network of model-agnostic interfaces developed in collaboration with model developers, providing interpolation results the community can trust. Kamodo’s flythrough capabilities present the user with a growing variety of flythrough tools based upon a rapidly expanding library of heliophysics model outputs in several domains, currently including a variety of Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Mesosphere and global magnetosphere model outputs. Each capability is designed to be easily accessible via simplistic model-agnostic syntax, with the entire package freely available in the cloud on Github. Here, we describe the tools developed, include several sample applications for common science questions, demonstrate interoperability with selected packages, and summarize ongoing developments.

Software↗

NASA NTRS1992

An architecture for the development of real-time fault diagnosis systems using model-based reasoning

Presented here is an architecture for implementing real-time telemetry based diagnostic systems using model-based reasoning. First, we describe Paragon, a knowledge acquisition tool for offline entry and validation of physical system models. Paragon provides domain experts with a structured editing capability to capture the physical component's structure, behavior, and causal relationships. We next describe the architecture of the run time diagnostic system. The diagnostic system, written entirely in Ada, uses the behavioral model developed offline by Paragon to simulate expected component states as reflected in the telemetry stream. The diagnostic algorithm traces causal relationships contained within the model to isolate system faults. Since the diagnostic process relies exclusively on the behavioral model and is implemented without the use of heuristic rules, it can be used to isolate unpredicted faults in a wide variety of systems. Finally, we discuss the implementation of a prototype system constructed using this technique for diagnosing faults in a science instrument. The prototype demonstrates the use of model-based reasoning to develop maintainable systems with greater diagnostic capabilities at a lower cost.

Hall, Gardiner A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗

NASA NTRS2012

Development of the GPM Observatory Thermal Vacuum Test Model

A software-based thermal modeling process was documented for generating the thermal panel settings necessary to simulate worst-case on-orbit flight environments in an observatory-level thermal vacuum test setup. The method for creating such a thermal model involved four major steps: (1) determining the major thermal zones for test as indicated by the major dissipating components on the spacecraft, then mapping the major heat flows between these components; (2) finding the flight equivalent sink temperatures for these test thermal zones; (3) determining the thermal test ground support equipment (GSE) design and initial thermal panel settings based on the equivalent sink temperatures; and (4) adjusting the panel settings in the test model to match heat flows and temperatures with the flight model. The observatory test thermal model developed from this process allows quick predictions of the performance of the thermal vacuum test design. In this work, the method described above was applied to the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core observatory spacecraft, a joint project between NASA and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) which is currently being integrated at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for launch in Early 2014. From preliminary results, the thermal test model generated from this process shows that the heat flows and temperatures match fairly well with the flight thermal model, indicating that the test model can simulate fairly accurately the conditions on-orbit. However, further analysis is needed to determine the best test configuration possible to validate the GPM thermal design before the start of environmental testing later this year. Also, while this analysis method has been applied solely to GPM, it should be emphasized that the same process can be applied to any mission to develop an effective test setup and panel settings which accurately simulate on-orbit thermal environments.

Yang, Kan↗

DOE OSTI2018

Development and modeling of a polar-direct-drive exploding pusher platform at the National Ignition Facility

High-intensity laser facilities, such as the National Ignition Facility (NIF), allow the experimental investigation of plasmas under extreme, high-energy-density conditions. Motivated by validating models for collisional heat-transfer processes in high-energy-density plasmas, we have developed an exploding pusher platform for use at the NIF in the polar-direct-drive configuration. The baseline design employs a 3 mm-diameter capsule, an 18 μm-thick CH ablator, and Ar-doped D 2 gas to achieve several keV electron-ion temperature separations with relatively low convergence ratios. In an initial series of shots at the NIF—N160920–003, -005, and N160921–001—the ratio of the laser intensity at different polar angles was varied to optimize the symmetry of the implosion. In this work, we summarize experimental results from the shot series and present pre- and post-shot analysis. Although the polar-direct-drive configuration is inherently asymmetric, we successfully tuned a post-shot 1D model to a set of key implosion performance metrics. The post-shot model has proven effective for extrapolating capsule performance to higher incident laser drive. Overall, the simplicity of the platform and the efficacy of the post-shot 1D model make the polar-direct-drive exploding pusher platform attractive for a variety of applications beyond the originally targeted study of collisional processes in high-energy-density plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of the reactor core isolation cooling system model for the extended station black-out accident

In order to accurately predict the behavior of the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System (RCIC) in the context of the FLEX strategies under the extended station black-out accident (SBO), we present a mechanistic model of the RCIC in this work. The control volume formulation of angular momentum conservation is employed to model the Terry turbine in the RCIC system. The two-phase nozzle flow model developed in the previous work is utilized to simulate the convergent-divergent nozzles in the Terry turbine. A nozzle flow table is generated to cover the operation range of the RCIC during beyond design basis accidents (BDBAs). The mechanistic RCIC turbine-pump model and the nozzle flow table are incorporated in a TRACE BWR model. Simulations of short-term and long-term SBO transients are performed to demonstrate dynamic RCIC responses. A system analysis code with the proposed mechanistic model of the RCIC system will have a better prediction of system safety response during SBO accidents. With the addition of such more realistic models, the system code will be capable of providing expanded understanding of safety margin, which can help help to form the technical basis for the successful implementation of the FLEX and SAMG measures under Extended Loss of AC Power (ELAP) conditions for BWR or PWR reactor designs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Film Cooled Recession of SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites: Test Development, CFD Modeling and Experimental Observations

SiCSiC ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) systems will play a crucial role in next generation turbine engines for hot-section component applications because of their ability to significantly increase engine operating temperatures, reduce engine weight and cooling requirements. However, the environmental stability of Si-based ceramics in high pressure, high velocity turbine engine combustion environment is of major concern. The water vapor containing combustion gas leads to accelerated oxidation and corrosion of the SiC based ceramics due to the water vapor reactions with silica (SiO2) scales forming non-protective volatile hydroxide species, resulting in recession of the ceramic components. Although environmental barrier coatings are being developed to help protect the CMC components, there is a need to better understand the fundamental recession behavior of in more realistic cooled engine component environments.In this paper, we describe a comprehensive film cooled high pressure burner rig based testing approach, by using standardized film cooled SiCSiC disc test specimen configurations. The SiCSiC specimens were designed for implementing the burner rig testing in turbine engine relevant combustion environments, obtaining generic film cooled recession rate data under the combustion water vapor conditions, and helping developing the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) film cooled models and performing model validation. Factors affecting the film cooled recession such as temperature, water vapor concentration, combustion gas velocity, and pressure are particularly investigated and modeled, and compared with impingement cooling only recession data in similar combustion flow environments. The experimental and modeling work will help predict the SiCSiC CMC recession behavior, and developing durable CMC systems in complex turbine engine operating conditions.

Recession↗

DOE OSTI2024

Globally Gridded Groundwater Extraction Volumes and Costs under Six Depletion and Ponded Depth Targets

This repository contains simulated outputs from superwell – a hydro-economic tool for long-term assessment of groundwater cost and supply – providing globally gridded groundwater extractable volumes and associated unit costs ($/km³) for accessible groundwater production, based on a variety of user-defined depletion and ponded depth scenarios. Key model documentation: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S. B., Graham, N. T., Yoon, J., Wild, T. B., Hejazi, M., Watson, D. J., & Vernon, C. R. (2025). Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(5), 1737-1767. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1737-2025 Find the source code of the superwell model on GitHub: https://github.com/JGCRI/superwell Repository Overview Main output: superwell_outputs.7z contains 6 files (4.5 GB) named as superwell_py_deep_all_0.*PD_0.*DL.csv. These files present superwell outputs of global groundwater extraction volumes and cost estimates on a 0.5° scale for six scenarios with different Ponded Depth (PD; 0.3 and 0.6 m) and Depletion Limit (DL; 5%, 25%, and 40% of available volume) targets over the entire pumping lifetime of a grid cell superwell_py_deep_all_0.3PD_0.25DL_sample_100.csv contains superwell outputs for 100 data points sampled to match the global inputs' distribution superwell_py_deep_all_0.3PD_0.25DL_Grid_72548.csv contains superwell output for a single grid cell concept_v5.png provides an overview of the superwell workflow Outputs Description year_number: year of pumping depletion_limit: set depletion limit (DL) as a volume fraction of total available groundwater Mappings: continent, country, gcam_basin_id, Basin_long_name, grid_id: geographic identifiers and basin information Inputs: grid_area (km²): area of the grid cell whyclass: hydrogeological classification of the aquifer permeability (m/day), porosity (%), total_thickness (m), depth_to_water (m): aquifer properties. The geo-processed input data has been published separately: https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 Model outputs: orig_aqfr_sat_thickness (m), aqfr_sat_thickness (m): original and remaining/instantaneous saturated thickness of the aquifer hydraulic_conductivity (m/day), transmissivity (m²/day): hydraulic properties of the aquifer radius_of_influence (m), areal_extent (km²): well radius and area of influence from the center of the well number_of_wells (-): number of wells in a grid cell determined by a ratio of well area and grid area max_drawdown (m), drawdown (m), drawdown_interference (m): well and aquifer drawdown during extraction total_head (m): total lift for the groundwater (depth to water plus drawdown) total_well_length (m): total depth of wells drilled well_yield (m³/day): pumping rate or well yield power (kW), energy (kWh): power and energy required for pumping groundwater Volume Outputs: volume_produced_perwell (m³), cumulative_vol_produced_perwell (m³): production volume metrics per well volume_produced_allwells (m³), cumulative_vol_produced_allwells (m³): aggregate extraction volumes for all wells in a grid cell available_volume (m³): available groundwater in storage for the grid cell as determined by aquifer properties depleted_vol_fraction: fraction of total volume pumped over available volumes in a grid cell (same as depletion limit) Cost Outputs: well_installation_cost ($): well installation cost based on the hydrogeological complexity of the aquifer annual_capital_cost, maintenance_cost, nonenergy_cost ($): nonenergy costs energy_cost_rate ($/kWh): electricity rate energy_cost ($): energy cost of pumping groundwater total_cost_perwell ($), total_cost_allwells ($): total annual energy and non-energy cost for each and all wells in a grid cell a unit_cost ($/m³), unit_cost_per_km3 ($/km³), unit_cost_per_acreft ($/acre-ft): total cost of pumping a unit of groundwater, indicated for different spatial units Key Resources Model documentation: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Graham, N., Yoon, J., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024; In-prep). Long-term Hydro-economic Assessment Tool for Evaluating Global Groundwater Cost and Supply: Superwell v1. Geoscientific Model Development. Input data: Niazi, H., Watson, D., Hejazi, M., Yonkofski, C., Ferencz, S., Vernon, C., Graham, N., Wild, T., & Yoon, J. (2024). Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins. MSD-LIVE Data repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 superwell source code: https://github.com/JGCRI/superwell Cite as Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Yoon, J., Graham, N., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024). Globally Gridded Groundwater Extraction Volumes and Costs under Six Depletion and Ponded Depth Targets. MSD-LIVE Data repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307832 Contact Reach out to Hassan Niazi or Stephen Ferencz or open an issue in the superwell repository for questions or suggestions.

Earth Systems↗

NASA NTRS1974

The ionospheres of Mars and Venus

Observations made by spacecraft in the Mariner and Venera series have provided considerable knowledge of the structure of the ionospheres and atmospheres of Mars and Venus. This paper begins with brief but complete discussions of these measurements and their interpretations. The principles for constructing models of ionospheres are presented from the standpoint of mass, momentum, and energy conservation. The relevant ion chemistry is presented, and the meaning and use of plasma scale heights are discussed. The models discussed are the model of Cloutier and co-workers; the models of Banks and Axford, of Whitten, and of Herman and co-workers; the model developed by McElroy and Strobel to account for the nighttime ionosphere of Venus; and the models developed by a number of investigators for the thermal structure of the Martian and Venusian ionospheres.

Whitten, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1996

A Brush Seals Program Modeling and Developments

Some events of a U.S. Army/NASA Lewis Research Center brush seals program are reviewed, and the development of ceramic brush seals is described. Some preliminary room-temperature flow data are modeled and compare favorably to the results of Ergun.

Hendricks, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Efficient Probabilistic Diagnostics for Electrical Power Systems

We consider in this work the probabilistic approach to model-based diagnosis when applied to electrical power systems (EPSs). Our probabilistic approach is formally well-founded, as it based on Bayesian networks and arithmetic circuits. We investigate the diagnostic task known as fault isolation, and pay special attention to meeting two of the main challenges . model development and real-time reasoning . often associated with real-world application of model-based diagnosis technologies. To address the challenge of model development, we develop a systematic approach to representing electrical power systems as Bayesian networks, supported by an easy-to-use speci.cation language. To address the real-time reasoning challenge, we compile Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits. Arithmetic circuit evaluation supports real-time diagnosis by being predictable and fast. In essence, we introduce a high-level EPS speci.cation language from which Bayesian networks that can diagnose multiple simultaneous failures are auto-generated, and we illustrate the feasibility of using arithmetic circuits, compiled from Bayesian networks, for real-time diagnosis on real-world EPSs of interest to NASA. The experimental system is a real-world EPS, namely the Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) located at the NASA Ames Research Center. In experiments with the ADAPT Bayesian network, which currently contains 503 discrete nodes and 579 edges, we .nd high diagnostic accuracy in scenarios where one to three faults, both in components and sensors, were inserted. The time taken to compute the most probable explanation using arithmetic circuits has a small mean of 0.2625 milliseconds and standard deviation of 0.2028 milliseconds. In experiments with data from ADAPT we also show that arithmetic circuit evaluation substantially outperforms joint tree propagation and variable elimination, two alternative algorithms for diagnosis using Bayesian network inference.

Mengshoel, Ole J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fluoride-Cooled High-Temperature Pebble-Bed Reactor Reference Plant Model Updates

This work presents the latest improvements to, and investigations performed with, the Fluoride-Cooled High-Temperature Pebble-Bed Reactor reference plant models for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. These models, developed with the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, serve as the foundation for the future development of detailed design evaluation models based on license applications. BlueCRAB is the code suite proposed for non-light-water reactor systems safety analyses, and it incorporates various simulation tools developed by the Nuclear Energy Advance Modeling and Simulation program, including the Griffin code for reactor physics, the Pronghorn and SAM codes for core thermal fluids, the BISON code for solid conduction and fuel performance, and the SAM code for system analysis. The primary objective of this work is to assess the level of readiness of BlueCRAB for modeling fluoride-cooled high-temperature pebble-bed reactors. We first developed numerical models in BlueCRAB that include the key physics for this technology, ensuring an adequate level of fidelity for modeling the core performance during accident scenarios. This was followed by simulation of transient scenarios, two loss-of-forced-cooling events (one protected and one unprotected), and two control rod withdrawal events (one delayed and one prompt supercritical reactivity insertion). The analysis includes comparisons between the 2-D thermal fluid porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM, comparisons between coupled Pronghorn-Griffin and coupled SAM-Griffin models for two loss-of-forced cooling events and one control rod withdrawal event, and comparisons between SAM single-solve and domain-overlapping approaches for multi-scale thermal fluid coupling. In addition, we performed comparisons between 3-D, 2-D, and 0-D neutronic models for the two control rod withdrawal scenarios with Pronghorn-Griffin. The results show that the BlueCRAB models led to physically intuitive solutions for the scenarios examined. The changes in the various scalar and vector fields such as the neutron flux, power, temperatures, densities, pressures, and velocities are all within the expected ranges, and their distributions can be explained from the system response of the transients and the geometric and material variations. Several comparisons suggest that the porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM can lead to similar solutions, even though they are based on different methodologies. The simulations demonstrate that there are differences between the various levels of fidelity, and it is advisable to have flexible tools that can cover the breadth and depth of needs that may arise in future technical evaluations. We believe that BlueCRAB’s capabilities represent a significant asset for confirmatory analyses aimed at resolving important safety questions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗