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At least 847 records · Page 47

Coarse-grain cluster analysis of tensors with application to climate biome identification

A tensor provides a concise way to codify the interdependence of complex data. Treating a tensor as a d-way array, each entry records the interaction between the different indices. Clustering provides a way to parse the complexity of the data into more readily understandable information. Clustering methods are heavily dependent on the algorithm of choice, as well as the chosen hyperparameters of the algorithm. However, their sensitivity to data scales is largely unknown. In this work, we apply the discrete wavelet transform to analyze the effects of coarse-graining on clustering tensor data. We are particularly interested in understanding how scale affects clustering of the Earth's climate system. The discrete wavelet transform allows classification of the Earth's climate across a multitude of spatial-temporal scales. The discrete wavelet transform is used to produce an ensemble of classification estimates, as opposed to a single classification. Each element of the ensemble is a clustering at a different spatial-temporal scale. Information theoretic approaches are used to identify important scale lengths in clustering the L15 Climate Datset. We also discover a sub-collection of the ensemble that spans the majority of the variance observed, allowing for efficient consensus clustering techniques that can be used to identify climate biomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

LSTM-Based Data Integration to Improve Snow Water Equivalent Prediction and Diagnose Error Sources

Accurate prediction of snow water equivalent (SWE) can be valuable for water resource managers. Recently, deep learning methods such as long short-term memory (LSTM) have exhibited high accuracy in simulating hydrologic variables and can integrate lagged observations to improve prediction, but their benefits were not clear for SWE simulations. Here we tested an LSTM network with data integration (DI) for SWE in the western United States to integrate 30-day-lagged or 7-day-lagged observations of either SWE or satellite-observed snow cover fraction (SCF) to improve future predictions. SCF proved beneficial only for shallow-snow sites during snowmelt, while lagged SWE integration significantly improved prediction accuracy for both shallow- and deep-snow sites. The median Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) in temporal testing improved from 0.92 to 0.97 with 30-day-lagged SWE integration, and root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the difference between estimated and observed peak SWE values d max were reduced by 41% and 57%, respectively. DI effectively mitigated accumulated model and forcing errors that would otherwise be persistent. Moreover, by applying DI to different observations (30-day-lagged, 7-day-lagged), we revealed the spatial distribution of errors with different persistent lengths. For example, integrating 30-day-lagged SWE was ineffective for ephemeral snow sites in the southwestern United States, but significantly reduced monthly-scale biases for regions with stable seasonal snowpack such as high-elevation sites in California. These biases are likely attributable to large interannual variability in snowfall or site-specific snow redistribution patterns that can accumulate to impactful levels over time for nonephemeral sites. These results set up benchmark levels and provide guidance for future model improvement strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated Global-Scale Detection and Characterization of Anthropogenic Activity using Multi-Source Satellite-Based Remote Sensing Imagery

Satellite-based remote sensing imagery is an effective means for detecting objects and structures in support of many applications. However, detecting the spatial and temporal bounds of a specific activity in satellite imagery is inherently more complex and research in this area is nascent. One reason for this is that describing an activity implies defining both spatial and temporal bounds and while activity is inherently continuous in nature, the geospatial (imagery) time series for any particular swath of ground provided by satellite imagery is relatively sparse and discrete in comparison. The IARPA Space-Based Machine Automated Recognition Technique (SMART)1 program is the first large-scale research program to target advancing the state of the art for automatically detecting, characterizing, and monitoring large-scale anthropogenic activity in global, multispectral satellite imagery. The program has two primary research objectives: 1) the “harmonization” of multiple imagery sources and 2) automated reasoning at scale to detect, characterize, and monitor activities of interest. This paper provides details on the goals, dataset, metrics, and lessons learned of the IARPA SMART program. By releasing the annotated dataset, the program aims to foster additional research in this area by the community at large.

Hirsh R Goldberg↗

Understanding the Design Space of Sparse/Dense Multiphase Dataflows for Mapping Graph Neural Networks on Spatial Accelerators

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have garnered a lot of recent interest because of their success in learning representations from graph-structured data across several critical applications in cloud and HPC. Owing to their unique compute and memory characteristics that come from an interplay between dense and sparse phases of computations, the emergence of reconfigurable dataflow (aka spatial) accelerators offers promise for acceleration by mapping optimized dataflows (i.e., computation order and parallelism) for both phases. The goal of this work is to characterize and understand the design-space of dataflow choices for running GNNs on spatial accelerators in order for the compilers to optimize the dataflow based on the workload. Specifically, we propose a taxonomy to describe all possible choices for mapping the dense and sparse phases of GNNs spatially and temporally over a spatial accelerator, capturing both the intra-phase dataflow and the inter-phase (pipelined) dataflow. Using this taxonomy, we do deep-dives into the cost and benefits of several dataflows and perform case studies on implications of hardware parameters for dataflows and value of flexibility to support pipelined execution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Studying Earth's Environment From Space: Classroom and Laboratory Activities with Instructor Resources

Standard, text-book based learning for earth, ocean, and atmospheric sciences has been limited by the unavailability of quantitative teaching materials. While a descriptive presentation, in a lecture format, of discrete satellite images is often adequate for high school classrooms, this is seldom the case at the undergraduate level. In order to address these concerns, a series of numerical exercises for the Macintosh was developed for use with satellite-derived Sea Surface Temperature, pigment and sea ice concentration data. Using a modified version of NIH Image, to analyze actual satellite data, students are able to better understand ocean processes, such as circulation, upwelling, primary production, and ocean/atmosphere coupling. Graphical plots, image math, and numerical comparisons are utilized to substantiate temporal and spatial trends in sea surface temperature and ocean color. Particularly for institutions that do not offer a program in remote sensing, the subject matter is presented as modular units, each of which can be readily incorporated into existing curricula. These materials have been produced in both CD-ROM and WWW format, making them useful for classroom or lab setting. Depending upon the level of available computer support, graphics can be displayed directly from the CD-ROM, or as a series of color view graphs for standard overhead projection.

Smith, Elizabeth A.↗

HP-LSP: A reference of land surface phenology from fused Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 with PhenoCam data

Abstract Land surface phenology (LSP) products are currently of large uncertainties due to cloud contaminations and other impacts in temporal satellite observations and they have been poorly validated because of the lack of spatially comparable ground measurements. This study provided a reference dataset of gap-free time series and phenological dates by fusing the Harmonized Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 (HLS) observations with near-surface PhenoCam time series for 78 regions of 10 × 10 km 2 across ecosystems in North America during 2019 and 2020. The HLS-PhenoCam LSP (HP-LSP) reference dataset at 30 m pixels is composed of: (1) 3-day synthetic gap-free EVI2 (two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index) time series that are physically meaningful to monitor the vegetation development across heterogeneous levels, train models (e.g., machine learning) for land surface mapping, and extract phenometrics from various methods; and (2) four key phenological dates (accuracy ≤5 days) that are spatially continuous and scalable, which are applicable to validate various satellite-based phenology products (e.g., global MODIS/VIIRS LSP), develop phenological models, and analyze climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Improving E3SM Land Model Photosynthesis Parameterization via Satellite SIF, Machine Learning, and Surrogate Modeling

The parameterization of key photosynthesis parameters is one of the key uncertain sources in modeling ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP). Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) offers a good proxy for GPP since it marks the actual process of photosynthesis; while machine learning (ML) provides a robust approach to model the GPP-SIF relationship. Here, we trained the boosted regressing tree (BRT) and the Random Forest ML models with Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite SIF data and in situ GPP observations from 49 eddy covariance towers. These trained ML GPP-SIF models were fed into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) to generate ELM-simulated global SIF estimates, which were then benchmarked against satellite SIF observations with a surrogate modeling approach. Our results indicated good modeling performance of the ML-based GPP-SIF relationship. The ELM model when fed with the ML GPP-SIF models also can well predict the spatial-temporal variations in SIF. We also found high model accuracy for the surrogate modeling. Model parameter sensitivity analysis suggested that the fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (flnr) is the most sensitive parameter to the SIF; other sensitive parameters include the Ball-Berry stomatal conductance slope (mbbopt) and the vcmax entropy (vcmaxse). The posterior uncertainty in simulated GPP was greatly reduced after benchmarking, and the model produced improved spatial patterns of mean GPP relative to FLUXCOM GPP. Our integrated approach provides a new avenue for improving land models and using remote-sensing SIF, which can be further improved in the future with more ground- and satellite-based observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance analysis and comparison of data-driven models for predicting indoor temperature in multi-zone commercial buildings

Building thermal models, which characterize the properties of a building’s envelope and thermal mass, are essential for accurate indoor temperature and cooling/heating demand prediction. Because of their flexibility and ease of use, data-driven models are increasingly used. Here, this study compared and analyzed the performance of gray-box (resistance-capacitance) and black-box (recurrent neural network) models for predicting indoor air temperature in a real multi-zone commercial building. The developed resistance-capacitance model served as a benchmark model for which full sets of temporal data and building information were used as inputs. The recurrent neural network models were trained and tested assuming various available types and amounts of temporal data and known building physical information to investigate the effects of data and information availability. Feature importance analysis was conducted to select the key variables for different prediction targets under different scenarios. This research provides guidance in selecting an appropriate building thermal response modeling method based on the measured data availability, building physical information, and application.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Moist Physics Parameterization Based on Deep Learning

Abstract Current moist physics parameterization schemes in general circulation models (GCMs) are the main source of biases in simulated precipitation and atmospheric circulation. Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to explore data‐driven approaches to developing parameterization for moist physics processes such as convection and clouds. This study aims to develop a new moist physics parameterization scheme based on deep learning. We use a residual convolutional neural network (ResNet) for this purpose. It is trained with 1‐year simulation from a superparameterized GCM, SPCAM. An independent year of SPCAM simulation is used for evaluation. In the design of the neural network, referred to as ResCu, the moist static energy conservation during moist processes is considered. In addition, the past history of the atmospheric states, convection, and clouds is also considered. The predicted variables from the neural network are GCM grid‐scale heating and drying rates by convection and clouds, and cloud liquid and ice water contents. Precipitation is derived from predicted moisture tendency. In the independent data test, ResCu can accurately reproduce the SPCAM simulation in both time mean and temporal variance. Comparison with other neural networks demonstrates the superior performance of ResNet architecture. ResCu is further tested in a single‐column model for both continental midlatitude warm season convection and tropical monsoonal convection. In both cases, it simulates the timing and intensity of convective events well. In the prognostic test of tropical convection case, the simulated temperature and moisture biases with ResCu are smaller than those using conventional convection and cloud parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Apparatus and amendment of wind turbine blade impact detection and analysis

A multisensory system provides both temporal and spatial coverage capacities for auto-detection of bird collision events. The system includes an apparatus having a first circuitry to capture and store a series of images or video of a blade of a wind turbine; and a memory to store the images from the first circuitry. The apparatus also has one or more sensors to continuously sense vibration of the blade or for acoustic recordings; and a second circuitry to analyze the sensor data stream and/or the series of images or video to identify a cause of the vibration and to trigger the camera(s). A communication interface transmits data from the second circuitry to another device, wherein the second circuitry applies artificial intelligence or machine learning to control sensitivity of the one or more sensors.

Johnston, Matthew↗

Machine Learning Classification Strategy to Improve Streamflow Estimates in Diverse River Basins in the Colorado River Basin

Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) is significantly altered by human activities including land use/cover alterations, reservoir operation, irrigation, and water exports. Climate is also highly varied across the CRB which contains snowpack-dominated watersheds and arid, precipitation-dominated basins. Recently, machine learning methods have improved the generalizability and accuracy of streamflow models. Previous successes with LSTM modeling have primarily focused on unimpacted basins, and few studies have included human impacted systems in either regional or single-basin modeling. We demonstrate that the diverse hydrological behavior of river basins in the CRB are too difficult to model with a single, regional model. We propose a method to delineate catchments into categories based on the level of predictability, hydrological characteristics, and the level of human influence. Lastly, we model streamflow in each category with climate and anthropogenic proxy data sets and use feature importance methods to assess whether model performance improves with additional relevant data. Overall, land use cover data at a low temporal resolution was not sufficient to capture the irregular patterns of reservoir releases, demonstrating the importance of having high-resolution reservoir release data sets at a global scale. On the other hand, the classification approach reduced the complexity of the data and has the potential to improve streamflow forecasts in human-altered regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Management Approach for NASA's Earth Venture-1 (EV-1) Airborne Science Investigations

The Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) Program Office (PO) is responsible for programmatic management of National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Science Mission Directorate's (SMD) Earth Venture (EV) missions. EV is composed of both orbital and suborbital Earth science missions. The first of the Earth Venture missions is EV-1, which are Principal Investigator-led, temporally-sustained, suborbital (airborne) science investigations costcapped at $30M each over five years. Traditional orbital procedures, processes and standards used to manage previous ESSP missions, while effective, are disproportionally comprehensive for suborbital missions. Conversely, existing airborne practices are primarily intended for smaller, temporally shorter investigations, and traditionally managed directly by a program scientist as opposed to a program office such as ESSP. In 2010, ESSP crafted a management approach for the successful implementation of the EV-1 missions within the constructs of current governance models. NASA Research and Technology Program and Project Management Requirements form the foundation of the approach for EV-1. Additionally, requirements from other existing NASA Procedural Requirements (NPRs), systems engineering guidance and management handbooks were adapted to manage programmatic, technical, schedule, cost elements and risk. As the EV-1 missions are nearly at the end of their successful execution and project lifecycle and the submission deadline of the next mission proposals near, the ESSP PO is taking the lessons learned and updated the programmatic management approach for all future Earth Venture Suborbital (EVS) missions for an even more flexible and streamlined management approach.

Guillory, Anthony R.↗

Monitoring leaf phenology in moist tropical forests by applying a superpixel-based deep learning method to time-series images of tree canopies

Tropical leaf phenology-particularly its variability at the tree-crown scale-dominates the seasonality of carbon and water fluxes. However, given enormous species diversity, accurate means of monitoring leaf phenology in tropical forests is still lacking. Time series of the Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) metric derived from tower-based red-green-blue (RGB) phenocams have been widely used to monitor leaf phenology in temperate forests, but its application in the tropics remains problematic. To improve monitoring of tropical phenology, we explored the use of a deep learning model (i.e. superpixel-based Residual Networks 50, SP-ResNet50) to automatically differentiate leaves from non-leaves in phenocam images and to derive leaf fraction at the tree-crown scale. To evaluate our model, we used a year of data from six phenocams in two contrasting forests in Panama. Here, we first built a comprehensive library of leaf and non-leaf pixels across various acquisition times, exposure conditions and specific phenocams. We then divided this library into training and testing components. We evaluated the model at three levels: 1) superpixel level with a testing set, 2) crown level by comparing the model-derived leaf fractions with those derived using image-specific supervised classification, and 3) temporally using all daily images to assess the diurnal stability of the model-derived leaf fraction. Finally, we compared the model-derived leaf fraction phenology with leaf phenology derived from GCC. Our results show that: 1) the SP-ResNet50 model accurately differentiates leaves from non-leaves (overall accuracy of 93%) and is robust across all three levels of evaluations; 2) the model accurately quantifies leaf fraction phenology across tree-crowns and forest ecosystems; and 3) the combined use of leaf fraction and GCC helps infer the timing of leaf emergence, maturation and senescence, critical information for modeling photosynthetic seasonality of tropical forests. Collectively, this study offers an improved means for automated tropical phenology monitoring using phenocams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiscale Reactive Model for 1,3,5-Triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene Inferred by Reactive MD Simulations and Unsupervised Learning

When high-energy-density materials are subjected to thermal or mechanical insults at extreme conditions (shock loading), a coupled response between the thermo-mechanical and chemical behaviors is systematically induced. Herein we develop a reaction model for the fast chemistry of 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (TATB) at the mesoscopic scale, where the chemical behavior is determined by underlying microscopic reactive simulations. The slow carbon cluster formation is not discussed in the present work. All-atom reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are performed with the ReaxFF potential, and a reduced-order chemical kinetics model for TATB is fitted to isothermal and adiabatic simulations of single crystal chemical decomposition. Unsupervised machine learning techniques based on non-negative matrix factorization are applied to MD trajectories to model the decomposition kinetics of TATB in terms of a four-component model. The associated heats of reaction are fit to the temperature evolution from adiabatic decomposition trajectories. Using a chemical species analysis, we show that non-negative matrix factorization captures the main chemical decomposition steps of TATB and provides an accurate estimation of their evolution with temperature. The final analytical formulation, coupled to a diffusion term, is incorporated into a continuum formalism, and simulation results are compared one-to-one against MD simulations of 1D reaction propagation along different crystallographic directions and with different initial temperatures. A good agreement is found for both the temporal and spatial evolution of the temperature field.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Forecasting induced seismicity in Oklahoma using machine learning methods

Oklahoma earthquakes in the past decade have been mostly associated with wastewater injection. Here we use a machine learning technique—the Random Forest to forecast induced seismicity rate in Oklahoma based on injection-related parameters. We split the data into training (2011.01–2015.05) and test (2015.06–2020.12) periods. The model forecasts seismicity rate during the test period based on input features, including operational parameters (injection rate and pressure), geological information (depth to basement), and modeled pore pressure and poroelastic stress. The results show overall good match with observed seismicity rate (adjusted R 2 of 0.75). The model shows that pore pressure rate and poroelastic stressing rates are the two most important features in forecasting. The absolute values of pore pressure and poroelastic stress, and the injection rate itself, are less important than the stressing rates. These findings further emphasize that temporal changes of stressing rates would lead to significant changes in seismicity rates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Data-Driven Model Reduction of Multiphase Flow in a Single-Hole Automotive Injector

Fuel injector design has a substantial influence on the performance and emissions of direct injection engines. To date, large eddy simulations coupled with a single-fluidmixture modeling approach have shown great success in evaluating the complex interplay among injector design, fuel properties, and operating conditions on the injector performance. However, this simulation approach is too computationally expensive to be used by industry routinely for injector design due to the fine temporal and spatial resolution required to resolve wall-bounded flow within the injector. The work presented in this paper highlights a potential pathway to addressing this issue. To study the influence of injector design, fuel properties, and operating conditions on injector performance, large eddy simulations were performed to model the turbulent multiphase flow development through a side-oriented singlehole diesel injector. Using Latin hypercube sampling, the design space spanning a range of fuel properties, operating conditions, and needle lifts were explored. Two techniques for dimensionality reduction, namely proper orthogonal decomposition and autoencoders, were compared to evaluate their accuracy in representing the flow in a reduced dimensional space. Finally, based on the findings from this work, recommendations are provided in using machine learning approaches within the context of emulation to construct reduced-ordermodels for internal flow development relevant to automotive applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Information Theoretic Extraction of EEG Features for Monitoring Subject Attention

The goal of this project was to test the applicability of information theoretic learning (feasibility study) to develop new brain computer interfaces (BCI). The difficulty to BCI comes from several aspects: (1) the effective data collection of signals related to cognition; (2) the preprocessing of these signals to extract the relevant information; (3) the pattern recognition methodology to detect reliably the signals related to cognitive states. We only addressed the two last aspects in this research. We started by evaluating an information theoretic measure of distance (Bhattacharyya distance) for BCI performance with good predictive results. We also compared several features to detect the presence of event related desynchronization (ERD) and synchronization (ERS), and concluded that at least for now the bandpass filtering is the best compromise between simplicity and performance. Finally, we implemented several classifiers for temporal - pattern recognition. We found out that the performance of temporal classifiers is superior to static classifiers but not by much. We conclude by stating that the future of BCI should be found in alternate approaches to sense, collect and process the signals created by populations of neurons. Towards this goal, cross-disciplinary teams of neuroscientists and engineers should be funded to approach BCIs from a much more principled view point.

Principe, Jose C.↗

Detection of CH 4 Hotspots from NASA’s GEOS Composition Analysis System

Recent research indicates that 8 to 12% of the global oil and gas production methane emissions could be attributed to ultra-emitters, which result in high concentration ‘hotspots’ near point sources. Identifying these emissions in near real time provides useful information to the policy makers and private industry, who are working to reduce their impact. To meet this need, scientists are increasingly analyzing satellite data from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) instrument aboard ESA’s Sentinel 5-Precursor mission. While direct analysis of TROPOMI level 2 swath data has been successful in identifying some large emission events, identifying hotpots is challenging because of the imaging noise due to a variety of artifacts and limits in daily coverage. Here we explore possible methodologies to detect methane hotspots using a new, gap-filled, and temporally continuous methane product from NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS), which assimilates column averaged methane mole fractions from the TROPOMI with capabilities to assimilate other remote sensing measurements. The CoDAS has been expanded from a heritage of stratospheric composition and carbon dioxide assimilation allowing for the support of regional modeling, validation with non-coincident operations, and merging variety of datasets. The current work mainly explores Observing System Simulation Experiments with methane GEOS simulations without assimilation to prepare the groundwork for further experiments with assimilated TROPOMI. First, known hotspots based on the known inventory are identified to demonstrate the capability of the system to point out emission hotspots. In the next step, a variety of machine learning techniques such as Self-Organizing Maps and Deep Learning are explored to automate detection of the plumes. Finally, a few approaches to quantify emissions from the identified hotspots are presented and are evaluated against the inventory. The effort is directed toward a future evaluation of the CoDAS based methane monitoring system’s ability to successfully detect and quantify hotspots.

Nikolay Balashov↗