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Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

We present an analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12 to 36 h lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models as part of the “Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)” project. A lead time of 12–36 h is chosen to constrain the large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up of the models as they adjust to being driven from the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC) analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large-scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large intermodel spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at midlevels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behavior shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. In conclusion, the wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. Additionally, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Interaction of Hot and Cold Gas in the Disk and Halo of Galaxies

Most of the thermal energy in the Galaxy and perhaps most of the baryons in the Universe are found in hot (log T approximately 5.5 - 7) gas. Hot gas is detected in the local interstellar medium, in supernova remnants (SNR), the Galactic halo, galaxy clusters and the intergalactic medium (IGM). In our own Galaxy, hot gas exists in large superbubbles up to several hundred pc in diameter that locally dominate the interstellar medium (ISM) and determine its thermal and dynamic evolution. While X-ray observations using ROSAT, Chandra and XMM have allowed us to make dramatic progress in mapping out the morphology of the hot gas and in understanding some of its spectral characteristics, there remain fundamental questions that are unanswered. Chief among these questions is the way that hot gas interacts with cooler phase gas and the effects these interactions have on hot gas energetics. The theoretical investigations we proposed in this grant aim to explore these interactions and to develop observational diagnostics that will allow us to gain much improved information on the evolution of hot gas in the disk and halo of galaxies. The first of the series of investigations that we proposed was a thorough exploration of turbulent mixing layers and cloud evaporation. We proposed to employ a multi-dimensional hydrodynamical code that includes non-equilibrium ionization (NEI), radiative cooling and thermal conduction. These models are to be applied to high velocity clouds in our galactic halo that are seen to have O VI by FUSE (Sembach et ai. 2000) and other clouds for which sufficient constraining observations exist.

Slavin, Jonathan↗

Three Dimensional Atmospheric Radiative Transfer-Applications and Methods Comparison

We review applications of 3D radiative transfer in the atmosphere, emphasizing the wide spectrum of scales important to remote sensing and modeling of cloud fields, and the characteristic scales introduced into observed radiances and fluxes by the distribution of photon pathlengths at conservative and absorbing wavelengths. We define the "plane-parallel bias", which is a measure of the importance of 3D cloud structure in large-scale models, and the "independent pixel errors" that quantify the significance of 3D effects in remote sensing, and emphasize their relative magnitude and scale dependence. A variety of approaches in current use in 3D radiative transfer, and issues of speed, accuracy, and flexibility are summarized. We also describe a recently initiated "International Intercomparison of 3-Dimensional Radiation Codes", or I3RC. I3RC is a 3-phase effort that has as its goals to: (1) understand the errors and limits of 3D methods; (2) provide "baseline" cases for future 3D code development; (3) promote sharing of 3D tools; (4) derive guidelines for 3D tool selection; and (5) improve atmospheric science education in 3D radiative transfer. Selected results from Phases 1 and 2 of I3RC are discussed. These are taken from five cloud fields: a 1D field of bar clouds, a 2D radar-derived field, a 3D Landsat-derived field, a stratiform cloud from the model of C. Moeng, and a convective cloud from the model of B. Stevens. Computations have been carried out for three monochromatic wavelengths (one conservative, one absorptive, and one thermal) and two solar zenith angles (0, 60 degrees).

Cahalan, Robert F.↗

A Public-Private-Acadmic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is pleased to have led a partnership to advance the state-of-the-science of solar power forecasting by designing, developing, building, deploying, testing, and assessing the SunCast™ Solar Power Forecasting System. The project has included cutting edge research, testing in several geographically- and climatologically-diverse high penetration solar utilities and Independent System Operators (ISOs), and wide dissemination of the research results to raise the bar on solar power forecasting technology. The partners include three other national laboratories, six universities, and industry partners. This public-private-academic team has worked in concert to perform use-inspired research to advance solar power forecasting through cutting-edge research to advance both the necessary forecasting technologies and the metrics for evaluating them. The project has culminated in a year-long, full-scale demonstration of provide irradiance and power forecasts to utilities and ISOs to use in their operations. The project focused on providing elements of a value chain, beginning with the weather that causes a deviation from clear sky irradiance and progresses through monitoring and observations, modeling, forecasting, dissemination and communication of the forecasts, interpretation of the forecast, and through decision-making, which produces outcomes that have an economic value. The system has been evaluated using metrics developed specifically for this project, which has provided rich information on model and system performance. Research was accomplished on the very short range (0-6 hours) Nowcasting system as well as on the longer term (6-72 hour) forecasting system. The shortest range forecasts are based on observations in the field. The shortest range system, built by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and based on Total Sky Imagers (TSIs) is TSICast, which operates on the shortest time scale with a latency of only a few minutes and forecasts that currently go out to about 15 min. This project has facilitated research in improving the hardware and software so that the new high definition cameras deployed at multiple nearby locations allow discernment of the clouds at varying levels and advection according to the winds observed at those levels. Improvements over “smart persistence” are about 29% for even these very short forecasts. StatCast is based on pyranometer data measured at the site as well as concurrent meteorological observations and forecasts. StatCast is based on regime-dependent artificial intelligence forecasting techniques and has been shown to improve on “smart persistence” forecasts by 15-50%. A second category of short-range forecasting systems employ satellite imagery and use that information to discern clouds and their motion, allowing them to project the clouds, and the resulting blockage of irradiance, in time. CIRACast (the system produced by the Cooperative Institute for Atmospheric Research [CIRA] at Colorado State University) was already one of the more advanced cloud motion systems, which is the reason that team was brought to this project. During the project timeframe, the CIRA team was able to advance cloud shadowing, parallax removal, and implementation of better advecting winds at different altitudes. CIRACast shows generally a 25-40% improvement over Smart Persistence between sunrise and approximately 1600 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) . A second satellite-based system, MADCast (Multi-sensor Advective Diffusive foreCast system), assimilates data from multiple satellite imagers and profilers to assimilate a fully three-dimensional picture of the cloud into the dynamic core of WRF. During 2015, MADCast (provided at least 70% improvement over Smart Persistence, with most of that skill being derived during partly cloudy conditions. That allows advection of the clouds via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model dynamics directly. After WRF-Solar™ showed initial success, it was also deployed in nowcasting mode with coarser runs out to 6 hours made hourly. It provided improvements on the order of 50-60% over Smart Persistence for forecasts up to 1600 UTC. The advantages of WRF-Solar-Nowcasting and MADCast were then blended to develop the new MAD-WRF model that incorporates the most important features of each of those models, both assimilating satellite cloud fields and using WRF-So far physics to develop and dissipate clouds. MAE improvements for MAD-WRF for forecasts from 3-6 hours are improved over WRF-Solar-Now by 20%. While all the Nowcasting system components by themselves provide improvement over Smart Persistence, the largest benefit is derived when they are smartly blended together by the Nowcasting Integrator to produce an integrated forecast. The development of WRF-Solar™ under this project has provided the first numerical weather prediction (NWP) model specifically designed to meet the needs of irradiance forecasting. The first augmentation improved the solar tracking algorithm to account for deviations associated with the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit and the obliquity of the Earth. Second, WRF-Solar™ added the direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse (DIF) components from the radiation parameterization to the model output. Third, efficient parameterizations were implemented to either interpolate the irradiance in between calls to the expensive radiative transfer parameterization, or to use a fast radiative transfer code that avoids computing three-dimensional heating rates but provides the surface irradiance. Fourth, a new parameterization was developed to improve the representation of absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols (aerosol direct effect). A fifth advance is that the aerosols now interact with the cloud microphysics, altering the cloud evolution and radiative properties, an effect that has been traditionally only implemented in atmospheric computationally costly chemistry models. A sixth development accounts for the feedbacks that sub-grid scale clouds produce in shortwave irradiance as implemented in a shallow cumulus parameterization Finally, WRF-Solar™ also allows assimilation of infrared irradiances from satellites to determine the three dimensional cloud field, allowing for an improved initialization of the cloud field that increases the performance of short-range forecasts. We find that WRF-Solar™ can improve clear sky irradiance prediction by 15-80% over a standard version of WRF, depending on location and cloud conditions. In a formal comparison to the NAM baseline, WRF-Solar™ showed improvements in the Day-Ahead forecast of 22-42%. The SunCast™ system requires substantial software engineering to blend all of the new model components as well as existing publically available NWP model runs. To do this we use an expert system for the Nowcasting blender and the Dynamic Integrated foreCast (DICast®) system for the NWP models. These two systems are then blended, we use an empirical power conversion method to convert the irradiance predictions to power, then apply an analog ensemble (AnEn) approach to further tune the forecast as well as to estimate its uncertainty. The AnEn module decreased RMSE (root mean squared error) by 17% over the blended SunCast™ power forecasts and provided skill in the probabilistic forecast with a Brier Skill Score of 0.55. In addition, we have also developed a Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System (GRAFS) in parallel, leveraging cost share funds. An economic evaluation based on Production Cost Modeling in the Public Service Company of Colorado showed that the observed 50% improvement in forecast accuracy will save their customers $819,200 with the projected MW deployment for 2024. Using econometrics, NCAR has scaled this savings to a national level and shown that an annual expected savings for this 50% forecast error reduction ranges from $11M in 2015 to $43M expected in 2040 with increased solar deployment. This amounts to a $455M discounted savings over the 26 year period of analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Numerical experiments on the role of radiative processes in the development and maintenance of upper level clouds

A time-dependent, two-dimensional Eulerian model is presented whose purpose is to obtain more realistic parameterizations of extended high level cloudiness, and the results of a numerical experiment using the model are reported. The model is anelastic and the Bousinesque assumption is invoked. Unresolved subgrid scale processes are parameterized as eddy diffusion processes. Two phases of water are incorporated and equilibrium between them is assumed. The effects of infrared radiative processes are parametrically represented. Two simulations were conducted with identical initial conditions; in one of them, the radiation term was never turned on. The mean values of perturbation potential temperature at each level in the domain are plotted versus height after 15, 30, and 60 minutes of simulated time. The influence of the radiative term is seen to impose a cooling trend, leading to an increased generation of ice water and an increased generation of turbulent kinetic energy in the cloud layer.

Starr, D. O'C.↗

Regime dependence of ice cloud heterogeneity – a convective life‐cycle effect?

Cloud condensate varies on scales smaller than those typically resolved by global weather and climate models. In order to accurately predict the radiative and microphysical process rates representative of the entire model grid box, the effect of the subgrid‐scale heterogeneity of cloud must be taken into account. In this study, observed ice water content retrieved from A‐Train satellite observations is used to explore how spatial ice condensate variability, characterized by the fractional standard deviation (FSD, the standard deviation divided by the mean), varies with cloud regime. FSD is generally lower for overcast cloud scenes, but an additional predictor based on convective activity is needed to capture the high FSD associated with more turbulent clouds and reproduce the observed latitudinal and height variations of FSD. Convective clouds that extend only a few kilometres above the freezing level are likely to be smaller at an earlier stage in their life cycle, and actively growing with a higher FSD. In contrast, more mature clouds reaching the tropopause are larger and generally have a lower variability and smaller FSD. To capture this life‐cycle effect, a new parametrization is tested which uses the ratio of a model's convectively detrained condensate to the existing cloud condensate mass as a proxy for the cloud's convective life stage to highlight areas with enhanced condensate variability. The parametrization is scale‐adaptive, situation‐dependent and captures seasonally varying global patterns and the zonal mean vertical structure of observed ice condensate variability well. Ground‐based observations obtained from five Atmospheric Radiation Measurement sites provide independent confirmation that the parametrization satisfactorily captures condensate variability in high‐altitude ice clouds.

Ahlgrimm, Maike↗

Geophysical Retrievals and Cloud Analyses from Merged Airborne Radiometer Datasets Covering 10–684 GHz

Airborne microwave radiometers provide insight about numerous aspects of Earth’s atmosphere and yield critical validation datasets for spaceborne radiometers. Three radiometers that are important to NASA’s airborne remote-sensing arsenal include: the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR), covering 10–85 GHz; the Conical Scanning Millimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer (CoSMIR), covering 50–183 GHz; and the Compact Scanning Submillimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer (CoSSIR), covering 170–684 GHz. The NASA field campaigns of interest to this study include: the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx) in 2014, the Olympic Mountains Experiment and Radar Definition Experiment (OLYMPEX/RADEX) in 2015–2016, the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) in 2020–2023, and the Airborne Lightning Observatory for FEGS and TGFs (ALOFT) in 2023. To provide a more comprehensive perspective on clouds and precipitation observed during these airborne field campaigns, AMPR data were merged spatiotemporally with CoSMIR data for IPHEx, OLYMPEX/RADEX, and IMPACTS (2020 and 2022), while considering differences in instrument characteristics and operations, providing brightness temperature (Tb) values from 10–183 GHz in a common background grid throughout each flight. AMPR and CoSSIR data were similarly merged for IMPACTS (2023) and ALOFT, providing a common background grid with Tb values covering 10–684 GHz throughout each flight. These merged Tb data were employed in geophysical retrievals using the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), an Eddington radiative transfer model, and a one-dimensional variational (1DVAR) inversion method. Retrievals of cloud liquid water path were of primary interest. This presentation will include an overview of the methods for the radiometer data mergers, the radiative transfer methods, the geophysical retrievals, and detailed results from examining trends in Tb and cloud liquid water path in clouds, precipitation, and cloud-to-precipitation transition zones.

Corey G Amiot↗

Absorption of Sunlight by Water Vapor in Cloudy Conditions: A Partial Explanation for the Cloud Absorption Anomaly

The atmospheric radiative transfer algorithms used in most global general circulation models underestimate the globally-averaged solar energy absorbed by cloudy atmospheres by up to 25 W/sq m. The origin of this anomalous absorption is not yet known, but it has been attributed to a variety of sources including oversimplified or missing physical processes in these models, uncertainties in the input data, and even measurement errors. Here, a sophisticated atmospheric radiative transfer model was used to provide a more comprehensive description of the physical processes that contribute to the absorption of solar radiation by the Earth's atmosphere. We found that the amount of sunlight absorbed by a cloudy atmosphere is inversely proportional to the solar zenith angle and the cloud top height, and directly proportional to the cloud optical depth and the water vapor concentration within the clouds. Atmospheres with saturated, optically-thick, low clouds absorbed about 12 W/sq m more than clear atmospheres. This accounts for about 1/2 to 1/3 of the anomalous ab- sorption. Atmospheres with optically thick middle and high clouds usually absorb less than clear atmospheres. Because water vapor is concentrated within and below the cloud tops, this absorber is most effective at small solar zenith angles. An additional absorber that is distributed at or above the cloud tops is needed to produce the amplitude and zenith angle dependence of the observed anomalous absorption.

Crisp, D.↗

Using ISCCP Weather States to Decompose Cloud Radiative Effects

The presentation will examine the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) cloud radiative effect CRE (aka "cloud radiative forcing") at the top-of-the-atmosphere and surface of ISCCP weather states (aka "cloud regimes") in three distinct geographical zones, one tropical and two mid-latitude. Our goal is to understand and quantify the contribution of the different cloud regimes to the planetary radiation budget. In the tropics we find that the three most convectively active states are the ones with largest SW, LW and net TOA CRE contributions to the overall daytime tropical CRE budget. They account for 59%, 71% and 55% of the total CRE, respectively. The boundary layer-dominated weather states account for only 34% of the total SW CRE and 41% of the total net CRE, so to focus only on them in cloud feedback studies may be imprudent. We also find that in both the northern and southern midlatitude zones only two weather states, the first and third most convectively active with large amounts of nimbostratus-type clouds, contribute ",40% to both the SW and net TOA CRE budgets, highlighting the fact that cloud regimes associated with frontal systems are not only important for weather (precipitation) but also for climate (radiation budget). While all cloud regimes in all geographical zones have a slightly larger SFC than TOA SW CRE, implying cooling of the surface and slight warming of the atmosphere, their LW radiative effects are more subtle: in the tropics the weather states with plentiful high clouds warm the atmosphere while those with copious amounts of low clouds cool the atmosphere. In both midlatitude zones only the weather states with peak cloud fractions at levels above 440 mbar warm the atmosphere while all the rest cool it. These results make the connection of the contrasting CRE effects to the atmospheric dynamics more explicit - "storms" tend to warm the atmosphere whereas fair weather clouds cool it, suggesting a positive feedback of clouds on weather systems. The breakdown of CRE by cloud regime are however not entirely similar between the two midlatitude zones. Despite the existence of an additional state in the nort!lern midlatitudes, only four weather states have net daytime CREs with absolute values above 100 Watts per square meter compared to six in the south. This reminds us that the environment where clouds occur also has a crucial role in determining their radiative effects. All the above make evident that reproducing grand averages of current CRE by climate models in only part of the challenge. If existing cloud regimes and shifts in their distributions and frequency of occurrence in a changed climate are not properly simulated, the radiative role of clouds will not be adequately predicted.

Oreopoulos, L.↗

On the relationships among cloud cover, mixed‐phase partitioning, and planetary albedo in GCMs

Abstract In this study, it is shown that CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) that convert supercooled water to ice at relatively warm temperatures tend to have a greater mean‐state cloud fraction and more negative cloud feedback in the middle and high latitude Southern Hemisphere. We investigate possible reasons for these relationships by analyzing the mixed‐phase parameterizations in 26 GCMs. The atmospheric temperature where ice and liquid are equally prevalent (T5050) is used to characterize the mixed‐phase parameterization in each GCM. Liquid clouds have a higher albedo than ice clouds, so, all else being equal, models with more supercooled liquid water would also have a higher planetary albedo. The lower cloud fraction in these models compensates the higher cloud reflectivity and results in clouds that reflect shortwave radiation (SW) in reasonable agreement with observations, but gives clouds that are too bright and too few. The temperature at which supercooled liquid can remain unfrozen is strongly anti‐correlated with cloud fraction in the climate mean state across the model ensemble, but we know of no robust physical mechanism to explain this behavior, especially because this anti‐correlation extends through the subtropics. A set of perturbed physics simulations with the Community Atmospheric Model Version 4 (CAM4) shows that, if its temperature‐dependent phase partitioning is varied and the critical relative humidity for cloud formation in each model run is also tuned to bring reflected SW into agreement with observations, then cloud fraction increases and liquid water path (LWP) decreases with T5050, as in the CMIP5 ensemble.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Process-Based Model Evaluation Using Surface Energy Budget Observations in Central Greenland

Energy exchange at the Greenland ice sheet surface governs surface temperature variability, a factor critical for representing surface melt. Physical processes link driving forces to subsequent surface energy budget responses, including radiative, turbulent, and ground heat fluxes, and ultimately control surface temperature evolution. A reanalysis product (ERA-Interim, ERA-I), operational model (Climate Forecast System version 2, CFSv2), and climate model (Community Earth System Model, CESM) are evaluated using a comprehensive set of surface energy budget observations and process-based relationships obtained at Summit, Greenland. Simulated downwelling longwave radiation is underestimated, which is linked to a deficiency of liquid-bearing clouds. Lower than observed surface albedo, especially in ERA-I, compensates for summer deficiencies in downwelling longwave radiation. In winter, such deficiencies are compensated by an overestimation of the sensible heat flux. Process-based relationships convey that all three models underestimate the response of surface temperature to changes in radiative forcing, primarily due to an overactive ground heat flux response in ERA-I, turbulent heat fluxes in CFSv2, and sensible heat flux in CESM. Cross comparison of three distinct models indicates that the ground heat flux response for ERA-I, CFSv2, and CESM is too high, too low, and comparatively accurate, respectively, signifying the benefit of using an advanced representation of snow properties. Relatively small biases in CESM surface albedo suggest that advances in the representation of cloud microphysics result in more realistic radiative forcing. These results provide insight into model strengths and deficiencies, indicating the importance of representing physical processes when portraying cloud impacts on surface temperature variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against observations.

sulfates↗

Analysis of the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation and its Relation to Cloud Radiative Forcing Using TRMM Products

In order to improve our understanding of the interactions between clouds, radiation, and the hydrological cycle simulated in the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU GCM), we focused our research on the analysis of the diurnal cycle of precipitation, top-of-the-atmosphere and surface radiation budgets, and cloudiness using 10-year long Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Comparisons the simulated diurnal cycle were made against the diurnal cycle of Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) radiation budget and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud products. This report summarizes our major findings over the Amazon Basin.

Randall, David A.↗

Investigation of Arctic Cloud Properties and Surface Radiation Based on MOSAiC Shipborne Observations

The Arctic is rapidly changing due to changes of the Earth system. This study investigates cloud fraction, phase partition, cloud type, and their relationships with surface radiation based on yearlong shipborne observations in the Arctic regions. The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) campaign provided lidar and radar observations of cloud microphysical properties and surface shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiation. Cloud and radiative properties were examined at daily and monthly resolutions in four seasons. Low clouds were found to be most prevalent throughout the year, followed by deep clouds. The ice phase is the dominant phase except for summer (June–August). Liquid and mixed phases show more significant monthly and annual mean radiative effects in SW and LW than the ice phase. The clouds show net warming effects due to LW heating in most months, while the SW cooling effects of clouds become more dominant for July and August. The cloud and radiation observations from MOSAiC were used to evaluate simulations of the atmospheric component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2. The simulations show large overestimations of the liquid and mixed phases in the Arctic regions from February to September. The simulations also underestimate the percentages of low clouds and overestimate the percentages of deep clouds throughout the year. Altogether, this work provides a unique analysis of cloud and radiation properties based on high-resolution shipborne observations, which can be used to assist future model evaluation and development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simulating Aerosol Indirect Effects with Improved Aerosol-Cloud- Precipitation Representations in a Coupled Regional Climate Model

This is a collaborative project among North Carolina State University, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego to address the critical need for an accurate representation of aerosol indirect effect in climate and Earth system models. In this project, we propose to develop and improve parameterizations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation feedbacks in climate models and apply them to study the effect of aerosols and clouds on radiation and hydrologic cycle. Our overall objective is to develop, improve, and evaluate parameterizations to enable more accurate simulations of these feedbacks in high resolution regional and global climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Development of a Fast and Accurate PCRTM Radiative Transfer Model in the Solar Spectral Region

A fast and accurate principal component-based radiative transfer model in the solar spectral region (PCRTMSOLAR) has been developed. The algorithm is capable of simulating reflected solar spectra in both clear sky and cloudy atmospheric conditions. Multiple scattering of the solar beam by the multilayer clouds and aerosols are calculated using a discrete ordinate radiative transfer scheme. The PCRTM-SOLAR model can be trained to simulate top-of-atmosphere radiance or reflectance spectra with spectral resolution ranging from 1 cm(exp −1) resolution to a few nanometers. Broadband radiances or reflectance can also be calculated if desired. The current version of the PCRTM-SOLAR covers a spectral range from 300 to 2500 nm. The model is valid for solar zenith angles ranging from 0 to 80 deg, the instrument view zenith angles ranging from 0 to 70 deg, and the relative azimuthal angles ranging from 0 to 360 deg. Depending on the number of spectral channels, the speed of the current version of PCRTM-SOLAR is a few hundred to over one thousand times faster than the medium speed correlated-k option MODTRAN5. The absolute RMS error in channel radiance is smaller than 10(exp −3) mW∕cm)exp 2)∕sr∕cm(exp −1) and the relative error is typically less than 0.2%.

Liu, Xu↗

Impacts of aerosol size-dependent below-cloud scavenging on tropospheric aerosol in the NASA GEOS model

Cloud scavenging is the major sink for a suite of tropospheric aerosols, and thus largely affects the global distribution and lifetime of aerosols as well as the formation of clouds. Simplified model parameterizations of cloud scavenging of aerosols substantially contribute to large uncertainties in the simulated aerosol burdens, spatial distributions, lifetimes, as well as aerosol radiative forcing. Here we evaluate the wet scavenging scheme in the current NASA GEOS model, develop more physically-based parameterizations of below-cloud scavenging, and assess the impacts of the new scavenging parameterizations on the GEOS simulations of aerosols. The current below-cloud scavenging (BCS; washout) scheme uses a first-order removal with a constant scavenging coefficient. We replaced the current scheme with a size-dependent parameterization of Croft et al.(Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2009; hereafter referred to as C09). The C09 BCS parameterizations calculate aerosol below-cloud scavenging coefficients based on a size-dependent collision efficiency between aerosol particles and raindrops (or snow crystals). A look-up table of compiled collision efficiencies provides values for sixty aerosol sizes and nine rain flux rates. Snow-aerosol collision efficiencies are a function of the sixty aerosol sizes only. We assume a log-normal size distribution for aerosols (bulk) in GOCART. The collision efficiencies are then calculated online using a bilinear interpolation from the look-up table for the given aerosol sizes and precipitation flux rates in the model.

aerosols↗

Thermal instabilities in radiatively driven winds - Application to emission line clouds of quasars and active galactic nuclei

It is shown that radiatively driven, optically thin winds from active galactic nuclei are thermally unstable, provided that the mass loss rates are not smaller than about 50 solar masses/year. Clouds form at distances of less than about 1 pc, with electron densities greater than 100 million/cu cm, temperatures of more than 10,000 K, and radii between 3 x 10 to the 14th and 10 to the 15th cm. These values agree with the values deduced from observations. Since the clouds are formed in a high velocity wind, this model, as does the model by Eilek and Caroff (1979), avoids problems of disruption inherent in using radiation pressure to accelerate clouds from rest to velocities up to 0.1 c needed to explain the emission line widths. The thermal balance of the gas is discussed, the criteria for thermal instability are given, and a perturbation analysis is made. This analysis is restricted to objects with bolometric luminosities lower than approximately 2 x 10 to the 46th ergs/sec. For more luminous objects, only winds slightly optically thick to electron scattering can be unstable, provided one can extend this analysis to the optically thick case.

Beltrametti, M.↗