Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Climate gradient”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Recent Winter Precipitation Changes over Eastern China in Different Warming Periods and the Associated East Asian Jets and Oceanic Conditions

Global-mean surface temperature has experienced fast warming during 1985–98 but stabilized during 1999–2013, especially in boreal winter. Climate changes over East Asia between the two warming periods and the associated mechanisms have not been fully understood. Analyses of observation and reanalysis data show that winter precipitation has decreased (increased) over southern (northeastern) China from 1985–98 to 1999–2013. Winds at 300 hPa over East Asia strengthened during 1999–2013 around 30°–47.5°N but weakened to the north and south of it. This change pattern caused the East Asian polar front jet (EAPJ) and the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) to shift, respectively, equatorward and poleward during 1999–2013. Associated with these jet displacements, the Siberian high enhanced and the East Asian trough shifted westward. The enhanced Siberian high strengthened the East Asian winter monsoon and weakened southwesterly winds over the South China Sea, leading to precipitation decreases over southern China. The westward shift of the East Asian trough enhanced convergence and precipitation over northeastern China. A combination of a negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation and a positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during 1999–2013 resulted in significant tropospheric warming over the low and high latitudes and cooling over the midlatitudes of East Asia. These changes enhanced the meridional temperature gradient and thus westerlies over the region between the two jets but weakened them to the south and north of it, thereby contributing to the wind change patterns and the jet displacements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Regional-Scale Assessment of Satellite Derived Precipitable Water Vapor Across The Amazon Basin

Atmospheric water vapor is widely recognized as a key climate variable, linking an assortment of poorly understood and complex processes. It is a major element of the hydrological cycle and provides a mechanism for energy exchange among many of the Earth system components. Reducing uncertainty in our current knowledge of water vapor and its role in the climate system requires accurate measurement, improved modeling techniques, and long-term prediction. Satellites have the potential to satisfy these criteria, as well as provide high resolution measurements that are not available from conventional sources. The focus of this paper is to examine the temporal and mesoscale variations of satellite derived precipitable water vapor (PW) across the Amazon Basin. This region is pivotal in the functioning of the global climate system through its abundant release of latent heat associated with heavy precipitation events. In addition, anthropogenic deforestation and biomass burning activities in recent decades are altering the conditions of the atmosphere, especially in the planetary boundary layer. A physical split-window (PSW) algorithm estimates PW using images from the GOES satellites along with the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data that provides the first guess information. Retrievals are made at a three-hourly time step during daylight hours in the Amazon Basin and surrounding areas for the months of June and October in 1988 (dry year) and 1995 (wet year). Spatially continuous fields are generated 5 times daily at 12Z, 15Z, 18Z, 21Z, and 00Z. These fields are then averaged to create monthly and 3 hourly monthly grids. Overall, the PSW estimates PW reasonable well in the Amazon with MAE ranging from 3.0 - 9.0 mm and MAE/observed mean around 20% in comparison to radiosonde observations. The distribution of PW generally mimics that of precipitation. Maximum values (42 - 52 mm) are located in the Northwest whereas minimum values (18 - 27 mm) are found along Brazil's East coast. Aside from the East coast, PW has a stronger north-south gradient than that of rainfall. As for the temporal variation of PW, June (1988 and 1995) experiences a peak about 1400 local time, corresponding to a maximum in air temperature. In contrast, October (1988 and 1995) experiences a maximum early in the day, 1100 local time, with a gradual decrease toward nighttime.

DeLiberty, Tracy↗
NASA NTRS1995

The NASA/MSFC Global Reference Atmospheric Model-1995 version (GRAM-95)

The latest version of the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM-95) is presented and discussed. GRAM-95 uses the new Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) CD-ROM data set, for 0- to 27-km altitudes. As with earlier versions, GRAM-95 provides complete geographical and altitude coverage for each month of the year. Individual years 1985 to 1991 and a period-of-record (1980 to 1991) can be simulated for the GUACA height range. GRAM-95 uses a specially developed data set, based on Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP) data, for the 20- to 120-km height range, and the NASA Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET) model for heights above 90 km. Fairing techniques assure a smooth transition in the overlap height ranges (20 to 27 km and 90 to 120 km). In addition to the traditional GRAM variables of pressure, density, temperature and wind components, GRAM-95 now includes water vapor and 11 other atmospheric constituents (O3, N2O, CO, CH4, CO2, N2, O2, O, A, He, and H). A new, variable-scale perturbation model provides both large-scale and small-scale deviations from mean values for the thermodynamic variables and horizontal and vertical wind components. The perturbation model includes new features that simulate intermittency (patchiness) in turbulence and small-scale perturbation fields. The density perturbations and density gradients (density shears) computed by the new model compare favorably in their statistical characteristics with observed density perturbations and density shears from 32 space shuttle reentry profiles. GRAM-95 provides considerable improvement in wind estimates from the new GUACA data set, compared to winds calculated from the geostrophic wind relations previously used in the 0- to 25-km height range. The GRAM-95 code has been put into a more modular form, easier to incorporate as subroutines in other programs (e.g., trajectory codes). A complete user's guide for running the program, plus sample input and output, is provided.

Justus, C. G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Heat flow vs. atmospheric greenhouse on early Mars

Researchers derived a quantitative relationship between the effectiveness of an atmospheric greenhouse and internal heat flow in producing the morphological differences between earlier and later Martian terrains. The derivation is based on relationships previously derived by other researchers. The reasoning may be stated as follows: the CO2 mean residence time in the Martian atmosphere is almost certainly much shorter than the total time span over which early climate differences are thought to have been sustained. Therefore, recycling of previously degassed CO2 quickly becomes more important than the ongoing supply of juvenile CO2. If so, then the atmospheric CO2 pressure, and thereby the surface temperature, may be approximated mathematically as a function of the total degassed CO2 in the atmosphere plus buried material and the ratio of the atmospheric and regolith mean residence times. The latter ratio can also be expressed as a function of heat flow. Hence, it follows that the surface temperature may be expressed as a function of heat flow and the total amount of available CO2. However, the depth to the water table can simultaneously be expressed as a function of heat flow and the surface temperature (the boundary condition). Therefore, for any given values of total available CO2 and regolith conductivity, there exist coupled independent equations which relate heat flow, surface temperature, and the depth to the water table. This means we can now derive simultaneous values of surface temperature and the depth of the water table for any value of the heat flow. The derived relationship is used to evaluate the relative importance of the atmospheric greenhouse effect and the internal regolith thermal gradient in producing morphological changes for any value of the heat flow, and to assess the absolute importance of each of the values of the heat flow which are thought to be reasonable on independent geophysical grounds.

Fanale, F. P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Whole-Ecosystem Warming Increases Plant-Available Nitrogen and Phosphorus in an Ombrotrophic Bog

Warming is expected to increase the net release of carbon from peatland soils, contributing to future warming. This positive feedback may be moderated by the response of peatland vegetation to rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] or to increased soil nutrient availability. We asked whether a gradient of whole-ecosystem warming (from + 0 °C to + 9 °C) would increase plant-available nitrogen and phosphorus in an ombrotrophic bog in northern Minnesota, USA, and whether elevated [CO 2 ] would modify the nutrient response. We tracked changes in plant-available nutrients across space and through time and in comparison with other nutrient pools, and assessed whether nutrient warming responses were captured by a point version of the land-surface model, ELM-SPRUCE. We found that warming exponentially increased plant-available ammonium and phosphate, but that nutrient dynamics were unaffected by elevated [CO 2 ]. The warming response increased by an order of magnitude between the first and fourth year of the experimental manipulation, perhaps because of dramatic mortality of Sphagnum mosses in the surface peat of the warmest treatments. However, neither the magnitude nor the temporal dynamics of the responses were captured by ELM-SPRUCE. Here, relative increases in plant-available ammonium and phosphate with warming were similar, but the response varied across raised hummocks and depressed hollows and with peat depth. Plant-available nutrient dynamics were only loosely correlated with inorganic and organic porewater nutrients, likely representing different processes. Future predictions of peatland nutrient availability under climate change scenarios must account for dynamic changes in nutrient acquisition by plants and microbes, as well as microtopography and peat depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

MODIS 3 Km Aerosol Product: Applications over Land in an Urban/suburban Region

MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites have provided a rich dataset of aerosol information at a 10 km spatial scale. Although originally intended for climate applications, the air quality community quickly became interested in using the MODIS aerosol data. However, 10 km resolution is not sufficient to resolve local scale aerosol features. With this in mind, MODIS Collection 6 is including a global aerosol product with a 3 km resolution. Here, we evaluate the 3 km product over the Baltimore/Washington D.C., USA, corridor during the summer of 2011, by comparing with spatially dense data collected as part of the DISCOVER-AQ campaign these data were measured by the NASA Langley Research Center airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) and a network of 44 sun photometers (SP) spaced approximately 10 km apart. The HSRL instrument shows that AOD can vary by up to 0.2 within a single 10 km MODIS pixel, meaning that higher resolution satellite retrievals may help to characterize aerosol spatial distributions in this region. Different techniques for validating a high-resolution aerosol product against SP measurements are considered. Although the 10 km product is more statistically reliable than the 3 km product, the 3 km product still performs acceptably, with more than two-thirds of MODIS/SP collocations falling within the expected error envelope with high correlation (R > 0.90). The 3 km product can better resolve aerosol gradients and retrieve closer to clouds and shorelines than the 10 km product, but tends to show more significant noise especially in urban areas. This urban degradation is quantified using ancillary land cover data. Overall, we show that the MODIS 3 km product adds new information to the existing set of satellite derived aerosol products and validates well over the region, but due to noise and problems in urban areas, should be treated with some degree of caution.

MODIS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales

A main research objectives of PISCEES is the development of formal methods for quantifying uncertainties in ice sheet modeling. Uncertainties in simulating and projecting mass loss from the polar ice sheets arise primarily from initial conditions, surface and basal boundary conditions, and model parameters. In general terms, two main chains of uncertainty propagation may be identified: 1. inverse propagation of observation and/or prior onto posterior control variable uncertainties; 2. forward propagation of prior or posterior control variable uncertainties onto those of target output quantities of interest (e.g., climate indices or ice sheet mass loss). A related goal is the development of computationally efficient methods for producing initial conditions for an ice sheet that are close to available present-day observations and essentially free of artificial model drift, which is required in order to be useful for model projections (“initialization problem”). To be of maximum value, such optimal initial states should be accompanied by “useful” uncertainty estimates that account for the different sources of uncerainties, as well as the degree to which the optimum state is constrained by available observations. The PISCEES proposal outlined two approaches for quantifying uncertainties. The first targets the full exploration of the uncertainty in model projections with sampling-based methods and a workflow managed by DAKOTA (the main delivery vehicle for software developed under QUEST). This is feasible for low-dimensional problems, e.g., those with a handful of global parameters to be inferred. This approach can benefit from derivative/adjoint information, but it is not necessary, which is why it often referred to as “non-intrusive”. The second approach makes heavy use of derivative information from model adjoints to address quantifying uncertainty in high-dimensions (e.g., basal boundary conditions in ice sheet models). The use of local gradient, or Hessian information (i.e., second derivatives of the cost function), requires additional code development and implementation, and is thus often referred to as an “intrusive” approach. Within PISCEES, MIT has been tasked to develop methods for derivative-based UQ, the ”intrusive” approach discussed above. These methods rely on the availability of first (adjoint) and second (Hessian) derivative code, developed through intrusive methods such as algorithmic differentiation (AD). While representing a significant burden in terms of code development, derivative-baesd UQ is able to cope with very high-dimensional uncertainty spaces. That is, unlike sampling methods (all variations of Monte Carlo), calculational burden is independent of the dimension of the uncertainty space. This is a significant advantage for spatially distributed uncertainty fields, such as threedimensional initial conditions, three-dimensional parameter fields, or two-dimensional surface and basal boundary conditions. Importantly, uncertainty fields for ice sheet models generally fall into this category.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Methane production and emissions in trees and forests

Forest ecosystem methane (CH 4 ) research has focused on soils, but trees are also important sources and sinks in forest CH 4 budgets. Living and dead trees transport and emit CH 4 produced in soils; living trees and dead wood emit CH 4 produced inside trees by microorganisms; and trees produce CH 4 through an abiotic photochemical process. Here, we review the state of the science on the production, consumption, transport, and emission of CH 4 by living and dead trees, and the spatial and temporal dynamics of these processes across hydrologic gradients inclusive of wetland and upland ecosystems. Emerging research demonstrates that tree CH 4 emissions can significantly increase the source strength of wetland forests, and modestly decrease the sink strength of upland forests. Scaling from stem or leaf measurements to trees or forests is limited by knowledge of the mechanisms by which trees transport soil-produced CH 4 , microbial processes produce and oxidize CH 4 inside trees, a lack of mechanistic models, the diffuse nature of forest CH 4 fluxes, complex overlap between sources and sinks, and extreme variation across individuals. Understanding the complex processes that regulate CH 4 source–sink dynamics in trees and forests requires cross-disciplinary research and new conceptual models that transcend the traditional binary classification of wetland vs upland forest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596), a model for northern peatland CO 2 , water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales

Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO 2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5° grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC) observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation ( V cmax ) being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP) ( r 2 = 0.76; Nash–Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF =0.76) and ecosystem respiration (ER, r 2 = 0.78, MEF = 0.75), with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r 2 2 exchange (NEE, r 2 = 0.38, MEF = 0.26). Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r 2 values (0.57–0.86). For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r 2 values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT) variation was not well predicted ( r 2 < 0.1), likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized V cmax and latitude (temperature), which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average V cmax value

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series: Supporting Data

This dataset consists of soil temperature time series that were used to estimate soil thermal diffusivity and its uncertainty trough the probabilistic modelling approach developed and presented in the article named "Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series" and published in Earth Surface Dynamics. There are two compressed (.zip) files that contains synthetic (Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip) and field (Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip) data. There is one MATLAB file that requires MATLAB to execute but any text editor can open it. The Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip file includes 5 comma-delimited data files (.csv) each of which contains soil temperature time series generated through forward modeling (i.e., heat-conduction process in a heterogeneous medium using an explicit finite difference method) to mimic various types of temperature gradients, trend and fluctuations. These synthetic soil temperatures were used to investigate the impact of different environmental conditions on the uncertainty of thermal diffusivity estimates. The Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip file contains 28 comma-delimited data files (.csv) out of which (a) 27 files includes soil temperature time series recorded from 27 temperature probes located in a site along Teller Road about 40 km northwest of Nome, Alaska (64.72°N, 165.94°W), (b) one includes the name and coordinates of the 27 probes. These field soil temperatures were used to infer soil thermal diffusivity at numerous locations and depths in a discontinuous permafrost environment, and to evaluate the links between the estimated soil thermal diffusivity values and soil physical properties. The comma-delimited data files (.csv) of the synthetic and field soil temperature time series includes date and time (UTC) in the first column and soil temperature from 5 cm below the ground surface to 1.05 m depth (with 5 or 10 cm spacing between sensors) in the other columns. The measurements were acquired every 15 minutes. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

NSA Site Science: Use of ARM Observations from Northern Alaska to Evaluate and Improve Prediction Capabilities

The Arctic is warming at a rate nearly double that of the rest of the planet, leading to profound changes in atmospheric, oceanic, and ice processes. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has played a significant role in Arctic research, operating observatories in Alaska's North Slope for over 25 years. These observatories provide a rich, and wide-reaching dataset that offers insight into atmospheric processes in northern Alaska. This report details the results of a nine-year research project (2015–2024) supported by the DOE Atmospheric Systems Research (ASR) program, that leverages data from ARM’s deployment of observing facilities at Utqiaġvik (known as the North Slope of Alaska, or NSA, site) and Oliktok Point, Alaska. The project was conducted in two phases: - Phase 1 (2015–2019): Focused on understanding key atmospheric processes at Oliktok Point, including cloud formation, high-latitude precipitation, aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud properties. - Phase 2 (2019–2024): Extended the research to the broader North Slope region, using data from both Oliktok Point and Utqiaġvik. Topics explored included surface energy budgets, atmospheric stability, ice nucleation processes, and microphysics in Arctic clouds. The project resulted in numerous research products, including 50 peer-reviewed publications and dissertations, 169 presentations, and 10 data products. These products cover a variety of topics, including: - Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties: Arctic clouds play a crucial role in energy transfer, and accurate representation in models is critical. The study explored cloud transitions, ice crystal shapes, and dual-wavelength radar data to understand ice crystal habits and size distributions. - Aerosol Properties and Processes: The team examined aerosol sources in the Arctic, including industrial emissions and natural sources. Observations showed significant spatial gradients in aerosol concentrations due to human activities and wildfire smoke. The influence of aerosols on cloud formation and the surface energy budget was also assessed. - Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: Research revealed that aerosols might suppress cloud ice production, affecting cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. The impact of local industrial emissions on cloud properties was also investigated. - Contextualizing the North Slope of Alaska in the context of the broader Arctic: To understand broader trends, the project evaluated large-scale circulation patterns and the influence of weather systems on the Arctic. Studies indicated that large-scale processes play a significant role in temperature patterns and the timing of snowmelt. - Advancing ARM Observational and Modeling Capabilities: The project developed new radar data products and advanced measurement techniques, including clutter mitigation and drizzle detection. Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and tethered balloon systems (TBS) were deployed to gather detailed atmospheric data. Additionally, the project supported 10 early career scientists, providing training and mentorship to undergraduate interns, graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and early career researchers. These efforts contributed to the advancement of ARM research capabilities and fostered a new generation of scientists skilled in Arctic atmospheric research. Ultimately, this ASR-supported project has provided valuable insights into Arctic atmospheric processes and their broader climate implications. Recommendations for future work include continuing support for long-term observing at Arctic locations to foster additional research, further exploration of aerosol-cloud interactions and the potential impacts of enhanced industrialization of the Arctic, and expanded use of uncrewed systems to gather data in this remote and harsh environment. Additionally, the data products developed by this work, and the data products developed through the ARM infrastructure, leave a treasure-trove of additional information that should be explored for many years to come to gain additional insight into physical processes in the Arctic atmosphere that drive the rapid changes occurring in at high latitudes and their global impact.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Early Spring Post-Fire Snow Albedo Dynamics in High Latitude Boreal Forests Using Landsat-8 OLI Data

Taking advantage of the improved radiometric resolution of Landsat-8 OLI which, unlike previous Landsat sensors, does not saturate over snow, the progress of fire recovery progress at the landscape scale (less than 100 m) is examined. High quality Landsat-8 albedo retrievals can now capture the true reflective and layered character of snow cover over a full range of land surface conditions and vegetation densities. This new capability particularly improves the assessment of post-fire vegetation dynamics across low- to high-burn severity gradients in Arctic and boreal regions in the early spring, when the albedos during recovery show the greatest variation. We use 30 m resolution Landsat-8 surface reflectances with concurrent coarser resolution (500 m) MODIS high quality full inversion surface Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Functions (BRDF) products to produce higher resolution values of surface albedo. The high resolution full expression shortwave blue sky albedo product performs well with an overall RMSE of 0.0267 between tower and satellite measures under both snow-free and snow-covered conditions. While the importance of post-fire albedo recovery can be discerned from the MODIS albedo product at regional and global scales, our study addresses the particular importance of early spring post-fire albedo recovery at the landscape scale by considering the significant spatial heterogeneity of burn severity, and the impact of snow on the early spring albedo of various vegetation recovery types. We found that variations in early spring albedo within a single MODIS gridded pixel can be larger than 0.6. Since the frequency and severity of wildfires in Arctic and boreal systems is expected to increase in the coming decades, the dynamics of albedo in response to these rapid surface changes will increasingly impact the energy balance and contribute to other climate processes and physical feedback mechanisms. Surface radiation products derived from Landsat-8 data will thus play an important role in characterizing the carbon cycle and ecosystem processes of high latitude systems.

Landsat-8 snow albedo↗
NASA NTRS1999

Retrieval Assimilation and Modeling of Atmospheric Water Vapor from Ground- and Space-Based GPS Networks: Investigation of the Global and Regional Hydrological Cycles

Uncertainty over the response of the atmospheric hydrological cycle (particularly the distribution of water vapor and cloudiness) to anthropogenic forcing is a primary source of doubt in current estimates of global climate sensitivity, which raises severe difficulties in evaluating its likely societal impact. Fortunately, a variety of advanced techniques and sensors are beginning to shed new light on the atmospheric hydrological cycle. One of the most promising makes use of the sensitivity of the Global Positioning System (GPS) to the thermodynamic state, and in particular the water vapor content, of the atmosphere through which the radio signals propagate. Our strategy to derive the maximum benefit for hydrological studies from the rapidly increasing GPS data stream will proceed in three stages: (1) systematically analyze and archive quality-controlled retrievals using state-of-the-art techniques; (2) employ both currently available and innovative assimilation procedures to incorporate these determinations into advanced regional and global atmospheric models and assess their effects; and (3) apply the results to investigate selected scientific issues of relevance to regional and global hydrological studies. An archive of GPS-based estimation of total zenith delay (TZD) data and water vapor where applicable has been established with expanded automated quality control. The accuracy of the GPS estimates is being monitored; the investigation of systematic errors is ongoing using comparisons with water vapor radiometers. Meteorological packages have been implemented. The accuracy and utilization of the TZD estimates has been improved by implementing a troposphere gradient model. GPS-based gradients have been validated as real atmospheric moisture gradients, establishing a link between the estimated gradients and the passage of weather fronts. We have developed a generalized ray tracing inversion scheme that can be used to analyze occultation data acquired from space- or land-based receivers. The National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (version MM5) has been adapted for Southern California, and assimilation studies are underway. Additional information is contained in the original.

Dickey, Jean O.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing uncertainty in Community Land Model version 5 hydrological applications in the United States

Abstract Land surface models such as the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5) are essential tools for simulating the behavior of the terrestrial system. Despite the extensive application of CLM5, limited attention has been paid to the underlying uncertainties associated with its hydrological parameters and how these uncertainties affect water resource applications. To address this long-standing issue, we use five meteorological datasets to conduct a comprehensive hydrological parameter uncertainty characterization of CLM5 over the hydroclimatic gradients of the conterminous United States. Key datasets produced from the uncertainty characterization experiment include: a benchmark dataset of CLM5 default hydrological performance, parameter sensitivities for 28 hydrological metrics, and large-ensemble outputs for CLM5 hydrological predictions. The presented datasets will assist CLM5 calibration and support broad applications, such as evaluating drought and flood vulnerabilities. The datasets can be used to identify the hydroclimatological conditions under which parametric uncertainties demonstrate substantial effects on hydrological predictions and clarify where further investigations are needed to understand how hydrological prediction uncertainties interact with other Earth system processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Hemispheric Asymmetry of the Annual and Semiannual Variation of Thermospheric Composition

We examine hemispheric asymmetry of the annual and semiannual variation of the ratio of O and N 2 concentrations ( O/N 2 ) using observations by the Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) instrument onboard the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite and compare them with Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere-ionosphere eXtension (WACCM-X) model simulations. We found that in the equatorial region, the “equinox peaks” of the observed O/N 2 are near the end of March and October, and the two annual lows are near the beginning of July and January. Compared to the equatorial region, in the northern hemisphere (NH) low latitudes, the first “equinox peak” clearly shifts toward the December solstice, whereas in the southern hemisphere (SH) low latitudes, the “equinox peaks” shift toward the June solstice (JS), forming the hemispheric asymmetry characteristics of the annual and semiannual variation. Seasonal variation of O/N 2 shows no apparent phase variation with altitude, and the annual and semiannual pattern is consistent from year to year. WACCM-X reproduces the observed annual and semiannual pattern in NH but in SH, it simulates an annual variation instead of the observed annual and semiannual variation. The largest discrepancy occurs near JS in the lower and middle thermosphere: the simulated O density has an annual high near JS in SH; the simulated N 2 density has an annual high near JS in NH but a predominant annual low near JS in SH. These are not in the GUVI data. A weaker thermospheric meridional circulation in the winter hemisphere, or a reduced summer-to-winter latitudinal gradient of neutral temperature in WACCM-X simulations would make model-data comparisons more consistent.

thermosphere composition↗
NASA NTRS2014

Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of SST gradients, associated PBL baroclinicity enabled by turbulent mixing, the ensuing PBL moisture convergence, and how changes in these processes relate to convective precipitation bias growth over this short period.

Cohen, Charlie↗