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At least 865 records · Page 48

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Point-scale organic-matter decomposition in streambeds is weakly associated with reach-scale respiration

Stream and river ecosystems play a central role in the movement and decomposition of particulate organic matter, serving as a conduit between terrestrial hillslopes and coastal environments. Microbial-catalyzed decomposition generates simpler organic molecules that fuel respiration, often in the sediments of these ecosystems. However, the degree of connection between sediment-associated respiration (ER??d) and organic-matter decomposition remains poorly understood. How that relationship compares to decomposition’s relationship with whole ecosystem (ERtot) and water column (ERwc) respiration is also not clear. We examined the link between particulate organic matter decomposition—using cellulose-based cotton strips as a standardized substrate—and all three components of respiration across 48 sites in the environmentally diverse Yakima River Basin (Washington State, USA). We hypothesized that decomposition within sediments would be most strongly related to ERsed, but decomposition rates were more closely associated with ERtot, with little connection to ERsed or ERwc. This suggests that particulate organic matter decomposition within stream/river sediments reflects integrated system respiration rather than processes confined to sediments or the water column alone. Further, across the basin, decomposition rates nearly spanned the previously reported global range for streams and rivers and were best explained by total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), sediment grain size, and aridity of the upstream drainage area. These results highlight the strong influence of land cover and basin-scale biophysical variation on sediment-associated decomposition processes and indicate that mechanistic models of organic matter decomposition in streams/rivers should account for coupled sediment–water–land interactions.

Stegen, James C. (ORCID:0000000191357424)↗

Development of a rotorcraft. Propulsion dynamics interface analysis, volume 1

The details of the modeling process and its implementation approach are presented. A generic methodology and model structure for performing coupled propulsion/rotor response analysis that is applicable to a variety of rotorcraft types was developed. A method for parameterizing the model structure to represent a particular rotorcraft is defined. The generic modeling methodology, the development of the propulsion system and the rotor/fuselage models, and the formulation of the resulting coupled rotor/propulsion system model are described. A test case that was developed is described.

Hull, R.↗

A coupled dynamic-thermodynamic model of an ice-ocean system in the marginal ice zone

Thermodynamics are incorporated into a coupled ice-ocean model in order to investigate wind-driven ice-ocean processes in the marginal zone. Upswelling at the ice edge which is generated by the difference in the ice-air and air-water surface stresses is found to give rise to a strong entrainment by drawing the pycnocline closer to the surface. Entrainment is shown to be negligible outside the areas affected by the ice edge upswelling. If cooling at the top is included in the model, the heat and salt exchanges are further enhanced in the upswelling areas. It is noted that new ice formation occurs in the region not affected by ice edge upswelling, and it is suggested that the high-salinity mixed layer regions (with a scale of a few Rossby radii of deformation) will overturn due to cooling, possibly contributing to the formation of deep water.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗

Middle and upper atmosphere results; Proceedings of the Topical Meeting of the Interdisciplinary Scientific Commission C (Meetings C2 and C3) of the COSPAR 28th Plenary Meeting, The Hague, Netherlands, June 25-July 6, 1990

Papers are first presented on atmospheric trace species, with particular attention given to stratospheric trace species and possible improvements to reference atmospheres. The equatorial thermosphere and aeronomy are considered with reference to models and San Marco satellite/ground-based observations. Papers on the coupling of dynamic, radiative, and chemical processes in the middle atmosphere are also presented.

Keating, G. M.↗

Modeling Electrolytic O2 Recovery from Metabolic CO2 for Advanced Closed Loop Life Support Systems in Extraterrestrial Human Missions

The International Space Station (ISS) is currently equipped with a complex, heavy, and power consuming system that recovers approximately 50% of O2 from metabolic CO2. Future long duration human missions to the Moon and Mars will necessitate a sustainable and highly efficient metabolic oxygen recovery system capable of yielding a minimum of 75% O2 recovery. A Macrofluidic Electrochemical Reactor (MFECR) technology development effort is currently underway at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to significantly increase current metabolic O2 recovery efficiency, expand mission sustainability, and reduce complexity of the system. The novel design combines CO2 conversion to O2 along with C2H4 as byproduct and water electrolysis (currently conducted in two separate units) into a single compact unit that runs at standard conditions and is theoretically capable of generating O2 with a theoretical maximum metabolic CO2 conversion of 73% while consuming less than metabolic water. This paper presents a comprehensive multi-physic 3D model developed at MSFC on CO2 conversion to O2 and C2H4 at standard conditions via MFECR. The 3D spatial domain of the model is a replica of the actual MFECR’s 3D drawing generated for the MFECR fabrication and operated to recover O2 from CO2 yielding C2H4 as byproduct. Electrochemical (EC) physics that includes EC multicomponent reaction mechanisms, mass transport, and electrical current density distributions is coupled in the model with all the other physics phenomena involved in the MFECR’s process, such as two-phase flow, free and porous fluid regimes, multicomponent mass transfer, heat transfer, and DC electrical current generation along with Joule heating effect. The EC reaction sections of the MFECR consists of two porous gas diffusion electrodes (GDE) and an electrolyte serpentine channel sandwiched in the middle. The CO2 feeds the cathode serpentine channel and part of the O2 product is fed back to the anode serpentine chamber. An alkaline solution feeds the electrolyte serpentine chamber wetting the GDEs of both, the anode and cathode allowing the OH- ionic transport between them. The EC reactions in the cathode’s GDE yield C2H4 from CO2 and H2 from water while the EC reaction in the anode’s GDE yields O2. The authors will present in this paper the validation of the model using experimental data and the utilization of the validated model in building a reliable simulator that will not only assist the authors on the MFECR design but also the optimization of its operation in the ISS and future spatial human missions.

Jesus A Dominguez↗

Immobile Robots: AI in the New Millennium

A new generation of sensor rich, massively distributed, autonomous systems are being developed that have the potential for profound social, environmental, and economic change. These include networked building energy systems, autonomous space probes, chemical plant control systems, satellite constellations for remote ecosystem monitoring, power grids, biosphere-like life support systems, and reconfigurable traffic systems, to highlight but a few. To achieve high performance, these immobile robots (or immobots) will need to develop sophisticated regulatory and immune systems that accurately and robustly control their complex internal functions. To accomplish this, immobots will exploit a vast nervous system of sensors to model themselves and their environment on a grand scale. They will use these models to dramatically reconfigure themselves in order to survive decades of autonomous operations. Achieving these large scale modeling and configuration tasks will require a tight coupling between the higher level coordination function provided by symbolic reasoning, and the lower level autonomic processes of adaptive estimation and control. To be economically viable they will need to be programmable purely through high level compositional models. Self modeling and self configuration, coordinating autonomic functions through symbolic reasoning, and compositional, model-based programming are the three key elements of a model-based autonomous systems architecture that is taking us into the New Millennium.

Williams, Brian C.↗

Modeling glass degradation and release of radionuclides from vitrified waste for performance assessment simulations

The release of radionuclides initially encapsulated in a slowly degrading solid waste form and contained in an eventually corroding canister defines the source term for numerical simulations for the assessment of a geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste. While the details of waste degradation, canister corrosion, and dissolution and mobilization of the radionuclides in pore water include complex chemical reaction and transport processes that are coupled to the thermal, hydrological, microbiological, and mechanical conditions in the repository, the source-term model suitable for use in a numerical performance assessment model should be a defensible abstraction of these mechanisms. We developed a radiological source-term model and implemented it into a non-isothermal flow and transport simulator. While the proposed source-term model is applicable to various waste forms, canister systems, and disposal concepts, we specifically considered radionuclide releases from vitrified high-level waste placed in a cylindrical canister disposed in a deep vertical borehole repository. In this model, waste degradation is a function of temperature, and it can be adjusted to evaluate the influence of and propagate uncertainties in pH, passivation reactions, and chemical conditions as well as geometrical factors. The time-dependent, congruent release of safety-relevant radionuclides present in the decaying inventory is then calculated. Finally, the radionuclides are mobilized by diffusive and advective transport according to the thermo-hydraulic conditions prevailing in the near field of the repository, from where they migrate through the geosphere to the accessible environment. We examine the influence of the source-term model’s parameters on performance assessment calculations through sensitivity and uncertainty propagation analyses, identifying influential factors and confirming the upper bound of their impact. These considerations align with the overarching goal of repository design, which is to demonstrate that engineered and natural barriers can collectively delay radionuclide migration for timescales far exceeding human planning, thereby providing multiple, redundant barriers against environmental contamination.

iTOUGH2↗

On a stochastic control method for weakly coupled linear systems

The stochastic control of two weakly coupled linear systems with different controllers is considered. Each controller only makes measurements about his own system; no information about the other system is assumed to be available. Based on the noisy measurements, the controllers are to generate independently suitable control policies which minimize a quadratic cost functional. To account for the effects of weak coupling directly, an approximate model, which involves replacing the influence of one system on the other by a white noise process is proposed. Simple suboptimal control problem for calculating the covariances of these noises is solved using the matrix minimum principle. The overall system performance based on this scheme is analyzed as a function of the degree of intersystem coupling.

Kwong, R. H.↗

GISS Model E2.2: A Climate Model Optimized for the Middle Atmosphere. Part 1: Model Structure, Climatology, Variability and Climate Sensitivity

We introduce a new climate model (GISS E2.2) that has been specially optimized for the Middle Atmosphere, and whose output is being contributed to the CMIP6 archive. The top of the model is at a geopotential altitude of 89 km, and parameterizations of moist convection and various forms of gravity wave drag based on tropospheric processes are chosen specifically for this optimization. We first evaluate the model in its configuration as a coupled atmosphere-chemistry model with respect to its simulation of the mean state of the Middle Atmosphere, from the mesosphere down through the Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere. Then we assess its use as a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model by exploring its mean ocean climatology. To evaluate its variability, we report on its simulation of the primary modes in the troposphere, stratosphere and ocean. Two climate change simulations are presented, the responses to instantaneous increases of 2xCO2 and 4xCO2, run with two different ocean models. Sensitivity studies are performed to illustrate the effect of parameterizations on the model results. We compare these results to the lower vertical resolution/top GISS Model E2.1, whose output has also been submitted to CMIP6. The different choices made for these models are explored. It is shown that important improvements in the circulation above and below the tropopause can be obtained when attention is paid to representation of Middle Atmosphere processes in climate model development.

D. Rind↗

Modelling and analysis of salt-convection effect on oxide reduction process for uranium oxides using smoothed particle hydrodynamics

Oxygen ion transport via molten salt continuum is a key kinetic feature of electrochemical reduction process for uranium oxides in molten salt. During the electrolysis, the evolution of oxygen ion concentration field in molten salt continuum appears from porous metallic layer to open bulk salt. Despite the important role affecting process throughput, its effect coupled with controlled salt movement was not adequately investigated. To capture the reactive oxygen ion transport phenomena, a multidimensional reduction model based on smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) was combined with the advection-diffusion model. A pelletized oxide fuel bed capturing interconnected salt continuum is considered as a reactant material geometry, which allows forced convective delivery of molten salt through the reactant materials with a relatively low pressure head. Here, in this study, reduction time of a pelletized-fuel bed was quantified with respect to key design parameters of the reactant material configuration. The simulation results demonstrated the advantage of salt convection which effectively removes oxygen ion products from the reactant materials and consequently accelerates the reduction process. Moreover, the reduction-time correlation of a single pelletized fuel was developed as a function of relevant dimensionless parameters and was extended to the application for a pelletized-fuel bed. Finally, several insights and implications in the use of a pelletized oxide fuel were presented. The developed SPH-based framework enabled multi-physics analysis of governing dynamics in appreciating and screening candidate reactant material configurations in a cost-effective manner.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

ICON-A, the Atmosphere Component of the ICON Earth System Model: I. Model Description

ICON–A is the new icosahedral nonhydrostatic (ICON) atmospheric general circulation model in a configuration using the Max Planck Institute physics package, which originates from the ECHAM6 general circulation model, and has been adapted to account for the changed dynamical core framework. The coupling scheme between dynamics and physics employs a sequential updating by dynamics and physics, and a fixed sequence of the physical processes similar to ECHAM6. To allow a meaningful initial comparison between ICON–A and the established ECHAM6–LR model, a setup with similar, low resolution in terms of number of grid points and levels is chosen. The ICON–A model is tuned on the base of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment aiming primarily at a well balanced top–of atmosphere energy budget to make the model suitable for coupled climate and Earth system modeling. The tuning addresses first the moisture and cloud distribution to achieve the top–of–atmosphere energy balance, followed by the tuning of the parameterized dynamic drag aiming at reduced wind errors in the troposphere. The resulting version of ICON–A has overall biases, which are comparable to those of ECHAM6. Problematic specific biases remain in the vertical distribution of clouds and in the stratospheric circulation, where the winter vortices are too weak. Biases in precipitable water and tropospheric temperature are, however, reduced compared to the ECHAM6. As a result, ICON–A will serve as the basis of further development and as the atmosphere component to the coupled model, ICON–Earth system model (ESM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probing local electrochemistry via mechanical cyclic voltammetry curves

Understanding the mechanical response of an electrode during electrochemical cycling and its correlation to the device electrochemical performance is crucial to improving the performance of insertion-type energy storage devices, electrochemical actuators, water purification, ion separation and neuromorphic computing applications. Here, we visualized the electro-chemo-mechanical coupling behaviors during charge storage of anhydrous and hydrated WO 3 electrodes via in situ atomic force microscopy (AFM) and developed the concept of mechanical cyclic voltammetry (mCV) curves. The relationship between electrochemical current and strain was investigated with simplified models and the results revealed that the proton insertion/deinsertion process could be described through potential-dependent electro-chemo-mechanical coupling coefficients which might indicate changes in insertion processes during electrode cycling. The mCV mapping results highlight the local heterogeneity and show that the charging processes varied across the electrode. These local variations could be further correlated to local morphology, crystal orientations or chemical compositions with proper electrode designs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Planar Doppler Velocimetry for Large-Scale Wind Tunnel Testing

Recently, Planar Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) has been shown by several laboratories to offer an attractive means for measuring three-dimensional velocity vectors everywhere in a light sheet placed in a flow. Unlike other optical means of measuring flow velocities, PDV is particularly attractive for use in large wind tunnels where distances to the sample region may be several meters, because it does not require the spatial resolution and tracking of individual scattering particles or the alignment of crossed beams at large distances. To date, demonstrations of PDV have been made either in low speed flows without quantitative comparison to other measurements, or in supersonic flows where the Doppler shift is large and its measurement is relatively insensitive to instrumental errors. Moreover, most reported applications have relied on the use of continuous-wave lasers, which limit the measurement to time-averaged velocity fields. This work summarizes the results of two previous studies of PDV in which the use of pulsed lasers to obtain instantaneous velocity vector fields is evaluated. The objective has been to quantitatively define and demonstrate PDV capabilities for applications in large-scale wind tunnels that are intended primarily for the production testing of subsonic aircraft. For such applications, the adequate resolution of low-speed flow fields requires accurate measurements of small Doppler shifts that are obtained at distances of several meters from the sample region. The use of pulsed lasers provides the unique capability to obtain not only time-averaged fields, but also their statistical fluctuation amplitudes and the spatial excursions of unsteady flow regions such as wakes and separations. To accomplish the objectives indicated, the PDV measurement process is first modeled and its performance evaluated computationally. The noise sources considered include those related to the optical and electronic properties of Charge-Coupled Device (CCD) arrays and to speckle effects associated with coherent illumination from pulsed lasers. The signal noise estimates are incorporated into the PDV signal analysis process and combined with computed scattering signals using a Mie scattering theory for polydisperse smoke particles. The relevant parameters incorporate a range of practical aerodynamic test conditions and facility sizes. The results define the optimum instrument configurations, show that the expected signal levels from a practical PDV system are sufficiently large to allow its useful application in large facilities, and show that the expected velocity measurement uncertainties are small compared to the mean velocities of interest for most subsonic, large-scale wind tunnel testing. Experimental studies using several experimental bench-top setups are then described that validate the physics of the PDV model and to calibrate its computed results. The validated model allows estimates of the uncertainties of PDV measurements and a complete definition of the PDV capabilities to be made with sufficient confidence to decide the viability of PDV for large-scale wind tunnel applications.

McKenzie, Robert L.↗

Coupled Model Simulation of Snowfall Events Over the Black Hills

Although many long-term simulations of snow accumulation and oblation have been made using stand-alone land surface models and surface models coupled with GCMs, less research has focused on short-term event simulations. Actually, accurate event simulations of snow-related processes are the basis for successful long-term simulation. Three advantages of event simulations of snowfall and snow melting are availability of: (1) intensive observation data from field experiments for validation; (2) more physically-realistic precipitation schemes for use in atmospheric models to simulate snowfall; and (3) a more detailed analysis of the snow melting processes. In addition to the complexities of snow related processes themselves, terrain-induced effects on snowfall/snow melting make simulations of snow events more difficult. Climatological observations indicate that terrain features such as the Black Hills of South Dakota and Wyoming can exert important effects on snow accumulation and snow oblation processes. One of the primary effects is that the orography causes forced uplift of airflow and causes atmospheric waves to form both upwind and downwind of it. Airflow often splits around the obstacle, converging on the lee side. This convergence may lead to precipitation enhancement. It also provides an elevated heat and moisture source that enhances atmospheric instability. During the period of April 5-May 5, 1999, the Upper Missouri River Basin Pilot Project (UMRBPP) made intensive observations on precipitation events occurring in the Black Hills. Two moderate snowfall events were captured during the period. The resulting high temporal and spatial resolution data provides opportunities to investigate terrain effects on snowfall amount, distribution, and melting. Successful simulation of snowfall amount, distribution, and evolution using atmospheric models is important to subsequent modeling of snow melting using snow sub-models in land surface schemes. In this paper, a coupled model system, consisting of an atmosphere model (ARPS) and a land-surface model (revised NCAR LSM), is used to simulate one of these UMRBPP cases.

Wang, Jianzhong↗

Spin-Up and Tuning of the Global Carbon Cycle Model Inside the GISS ModelE2 GCM

Planetary carbon cycle involves multiple phenomena, acting at variety of temporal and spacial scales. The typical times range from minutes for leaf stomata physiology to centuries for passive soil carbon pools and deep ocean layers. So, finding a satisfactory equilibrium state becomes a challenging and computationally expensive task. Here we present the spin-up processes for different configurations of the GISS Carbon Cycle model from the model forced with MODIS observed Leaf Area Index (LAI) and prescribed ocean to the prognostic LAI and to the model fully coupled to the dynamic ocean and ocean biology. We investigate the time it takes the model to reach the equilibrium and discuss the ways to speed up this process. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS ModelE2) is currently equipped with all major algorithms necessary for the simulation of the Global Carbon Cycle. The terrestrial part is presented by Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM), which includes leaf biophysics, prognostic phenology and soil biogeochemistry module (based on Carnegie-Ames-Stanford model). The ocean part is based on the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM). The transport of atmospheric CO2 is performed by the atmospheric part of ModelE2, which employs quadratic upstream algorithm for this purpose.

Climate model↗

Disentangling atmospheric, hydrological, and coupling uncertainties in compound flood modeling within a coupled Earth system model

Compound riverine and coastal flooding is usually driven by complex interactions among meteorological, hydrological, and ocean extremes. However, existing efforts to model this phenomenon often do not integrate hydrological processes across atmosphere–land–river–ocean systems, leading to substantial uncertainties that have not been fully examined. To bridge this gap, we leverage the new capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that enable a multi-component framework that integrates coastally refined atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components. We evaluate compound uncertainties arising from two-way land–river–ocean coupling in E3SM and track the cascading meteorological and hydrological uncertainties through ensemble simulations over the Delaware River basin and estuary during Hurricane Irene (2011). Our findings highlight the importance of two-way river–ocean coupling to compound flood modeling and demonstrate E3SM's capability in capturing compound flood extent near the coast, with a hit rate over 0.75. Our study shows the growing uncertainties that transition from atmospheric forcings to flood distribution and severity. Furthermore, an analysis based on artificial neural networks is used to assess the roles of hydrological drivers, such as infiltration and soil moisture, in the generation of compound flooding. The response of compound floods to tropical cyclones (TCs) is found to be susceptible to these often overlooked drivers. For instance, the flooded area could increase more than 2-fold (∼2.4) if Hurricane Irene were preceded by an extreme antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). The results not only support the use of a multi-component framework for interactive flooding processes, but also underscore the necessity of broader definitions of compound flooding that encompass the simultaneous occurrence of intense precipitation, storm surge, and high AMC during TCs.

Feng, Dongyu [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

Biogeochemical modeling at mass extinction boundaries

The causes of major mass extinctions is a subject of considerable interest to those concerned with the history and evolution of life on earth. The primary objectives of the proposed plan of research are: (1) to develop quantitative time-dependent biogeochemical cycle models, coupled with an ocean atmosphere in order to improve the understanding of global scale physical, chemical, and biological processes that control the distribution of elements important for life at times of mass extinctions; and (2) to develop a comprehensive data base of the best available geochemical, isotopic, and other relevant geologic data from sections across mass extinction boundaries. These data will be used to constrain and test the biogeochemical model. These modeling experiments should prove useful in: (1) determining the possible cause(s) of the environmental changes seen at bio-event boundaries; (2) identifying and quantifying little-known feedbacks among the oceans, atmosphere, and biosphere; and (3) providing additional insights into the possible responses of the earth system to perturbations of various timescales. One of the best known mass extinction events marks the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary (66 Myr ago). Data from the K/T boundary are used here to constrain a newly developed time-dependent biogeochemical cycle model that is designed to study transient behavior of the earth system. Model results predict significant fluctuations in ocean alkalinity, atmospheric CO2, and global temperatures caused by extinction of calcareous plankton and reduction in the sedimentation rates of pelagic carbonates and organic carbon. Oxygen-isotome and other paleoclimatic data from K/T time provide some evidence that such climatic fluctuations may have occurred, but stabilizing feedbacks may have acted to reduce the ocean alkalinity and carbon dioxide fluctuations.

Rampino, M. R.↗