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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A Model Intercomparison Study of Aerosol‐Cloud‐Turbulence Interactions in a Cloud Chamber: 1. Model Results

This study presents the first model intercomparison of aerosol‐cloud‐turbulence interactions in a controlled cloudy Rayleigh‐Bénard Convection chamber environment, utilizing the Pi Chamber at Michigan Technological University. We analyzed simulated cloud chamber‐averaged statistics of microphysics and thermodynamics in a warm‐phase, cloudy environment under steady‐state conditions at varying aerosol injection rates. Simulation results from seven distinct models (DNS, LES, and a 1D turbulence model) were compared. Our findings demonstrate that while all models qualitatively capture observed trends in droplet number concentration, mean radius, and droplet size distributions at both high and low aerosol injection rates, significant quantitative differences were observed. Notably, droplet number concentrations varied by over two orders of magnitude between models for the same injection rates, indicating sensitivities to the model treatments in droplet activation and removal and wall fluxes. Furthermore, inconsistencies in vertical relative humidity profiles and in achieving steady‐state liquid water content suggest the need for further investigation into the mechanisms driving these variations. Despite these discrepancies, the models generally reproduced consistent power‐law relationships between the microphysical variables. This model intercomparison underscores the importance of controlled cloud chamber experiments for validating and improving cloud microphysical parameterizations. Recommendations for future modeling studies are also highlighted, including constraining wall conditions and processes, investigating droplet/aerosol removal (including sidewall losses), and conducting simplified experiments to isolate specific processes contributing to model divergence and reduce model uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Topological structure of complex predictions

Abstract Current complex prediction models are the result of fitting deep neural networks, graph convolutional networks or transducers to a set of training data. A key challenge with these models is that they are highly parameterized, which makes describing and interpreting the prediction strategies difficult. We use topological data analysis to transform these complex prediction models into a simplified topological view of the prediction landscape. The result is a map of the predictions that enables inspection of the model results with more specificity than dimensionality-reduction methods such as tSNE and UMAP. The methods scale up to large datasets across different domains. We present a case study of a transformer-based model previously designed to predict expression levels of a piece of DNA in thousands of genomic tracks. When the model is used to study mutations in the BRCA1 gene, our topological analysis shows that it is sensitive to the location of a mutation and the exon structure of BRCA1 in ways that cannot be found with tools based on dimensionality reduction. Moreover, the topological framework offers multiple ways to inspect results, including an error estimate that is more accurate than model uncertainty. Further studies show how these ideas produce useful results in graph-based learning and image classification.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2024

The SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey: Dark Energy Survey year 3 weak gravitational lensing by eRASS1 selected galaxy clusters

Context. Number counts of galaxy clusters across redshift are a powerful cosmological probe if a precise and accurate reconstruction of the underlying mass distribution is performed – a challenge called mass calibration. With the advent of wide and deep photometric surveys, weak gravitational lensing (WL) by clusters has become the method of choice for this measurement. Aims. We measured and validated the WL signature in the shape of galaxies observed in the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) caused by galaxy clusters and groups selected in the first all-sky survey performed by SRG (Spectrum Roentgen Gamma)/eROSITA (eRASS1). These data were then used to determine the scaling between the X-ray photon count rate of the clusters and their halo mass and redshift. Methods. We empirically determined the degree of cluster member contamination in our background source sample. The individual cluster shear profiles were then analyzed with a Bayesian population model that self-consistently accounts for the lens sample selection and contamination and includes marginalization over a host of instrumental and astrophysical systematics. To quantify the accuracy of the mass extraction of that model, we performed mass measurements on mock cluster catalogs with realistic synthetic shear profiles. This allowed us to establish that hydrodynamical modeling uncertainties at low lens redshifts (z < 0.6) are the dominant systematic limitation. At high lens redshift, the uncertainties of the sources’ photometric redshift calibration dominate. Results. With regard to the X-ray count rate to halo mass relation, we determined its amplitude, its mass trend, the redshift evolution of the mass trend, the deviation from self-similar redshift evolution, and the intrinsic scatter around this relation. Conclusions. The mass calibration analysis performed here sets the stage for a joint analysis with the number counts of eRASS1 clusters to constrain a host of cosmological parameters. We demonstrate that WL mass calibration of galaxy clusters can be performed successfully with source galaxies whose calibration was performed primarily for cosmic shear experiments, opening the way for the cluster cosmological exploitation of future optical and NIR surveys like Euclid and LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Hierarchical modeling of molecular energies using a deep neural network

In this work, we introduce the Hierarchically Interacting Particle Neural Network (HIP-NN) to model molecular properties from datasets of quantum calculations. Inspired by a many-body expansion, HIP-NN decomposes properties, such as energy, as a sum over hierarchical terms. These terms are generated from a neural network—a composition of many nonlinear transformations—acting on a representation of the molecule. HIP-NN achieves the state-of-the-art performance on a dataset of 131k ground state organic molecules and predicts energies with 0.26 kcal/mol mean absolute error. Finally, with minimal tuning, our model is also competitive on a dataset of molecular dynamics trajectories. In addition to enabling accurate energy predictions, the hierarchical structure of HIP-NN helps to identify regions of model uncertainty.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Implosion shape control of high-velocity, large case-to-capsule ratio beryllium ablators at the National Ignition Facility

Experiments at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) show that the implosion shape of inertial confinement fusion ablators is a key factor limiting performance. To achieve more predictable, shape tunable implosions, we have designed and fielded a large 4.2 case-to-capsule ratio target at the NIF using 6.72 mm diameter Au hohlraums and 1.6 mm diameter Cu-doped Be capsules. Simulations show that at these dimensions during a 10 ns 3-shock laser pulse reaching 275 eV hohlraum temperatures, the plasma flow from the hohlraum wall and ablator is not significant enough to impede beam propagation. Experiments measuring the shock symmetry and in-flight shell symmetry closely matched the simulations. Most notably, in two experiments, we demonstrated symmetry control from negative to positive Legendre P2 space by varying the inner to total laser power cone fraction by 5% below and above the predicted symmetric value. In conclusion, some discrepancies found in 1st shock arrival times that could affect agreement in late time implosion symmetry suggest hohlraum and capsule modeling uncertainties do remain, but this target design reduces sensitivities to them.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Evaluation of calibration efficacy under different levels of uncertainty

This study examines how calibration performs under different levels of uncertainty in model input data. It specifically assesses the efficacy of Bayesian calibration to enhance the reliability of EnergyPlus model predictions. A Bayesian approach can be used to update uncertain values of parameters, given measured energy-use data, and to quantify the associated uncertainty.We assess the efficacy of Bayesian calibration under a controlled virtual-reality setup, which enables rigorous validation of the accuracy of calibration results in terms of both calibrated parameter values and model predictions. Case studies demonstrate the performance of Bayesian calibration of base models developed from audit data with differing levels of detail in building design, usage, and operation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2012

THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF BROAD-LINE QUASARS IN THE MASS-LUMINOSITY PLANE. I. TESTING FWHM-BASED VIRIAL BLACK HOLE MASSES

We jointly constrain the luminosity function (LF) and black hole mass function (BHMF) of broad-line quasars with forward Bayesian modeling in the quasar mass-luminosity plane, based on a homogeneous sample of {approx}58, 000 Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7 quasars at z {approx} 0.3-5. We take into account the selection effect of the sample flux limit; more importantly, we deal with the statistical scatter between true BH masses and FWHM-based single-epoch virial mass estimates, as well as potential luminosity-dependent biases of these mass estimates. The LF is tightly constrained in the regime sampled by SDSS and makes reasonable predictions when extrapolated to {approx}3 mag fainter. Downsizing is seen in the model LF. On the other hand, we find it difficult to constrain the BHMF to within a factor of a few at z {approx}> 0.7 (with Mg II and C IV-based virial BH masses). This is mainly driven by the unknown luminosity-dependent bias of these mass estimators and its degeneracy with other model parameters, and secondly driven by the fact that SDSS quasars only sample the tip of the active BH population at high redshift. Nevertheless, the most likely models favor a positive luminosity-dependent bias for Mg II and possibly for C IV, such that at fixed true BH mass, objects with higher-than-average luminosities have overestimated FWHM-based virial masses. There is tentative evidence that downsizing also manifests itself in the active BHMF, and the BH mass density in broad-line quasars contributes an insignificant amount to the total BH mass density at all times. Within our model uncertainties, we do not find a strong BH mass dependence of the mean Eddington ratio, but there is evidence that the mean Eddington ratio (at fixed BH mass) increases with redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

TESTING THE DARK ENERGY WITH GRAVITATIONAL LENSING STATISTICS

We study the redshift distribution of two samples of early-type gravitational lenses, extracted from a larger collection of 122 systems, to constrain the cosmological constant in the {Lambda}CDM model and the parameters of a set of alternative dark energy models (XCDM, Dvali-Gabadadze-Porrati, and Ricci dark energy models), in a spatially flat universe. The likelihood is maximized for {Omega}{sub {Lambda}} = 0.70 {+-} 0.09 when considering the sample excluding the Sloan Lens ACS systems (known to be biased toward large image-separation lenses) and no-evolution, and {Omega}{sub {Lambda}} = 0.81 {+-} 0.05 when limiting to gravitational lenses with image separation {Delta}{theta} > 2'' and no-evolution. In both cases, results accounting for galaxy evolution are consistent within 1{sigma}. The present test supports the accelerated expansion, by excluding the null hypothesis (i.e., {Omega}{sub {Lambda}} = 0) at more than 4{sigma}, regardless of the chosen sample and assumptions on the galaxy evolution. A comparison between competitive world models is performed by means of the Bayesian information criterion. This shows that the simplest cosmological constant model-that has only one free parameter-is still preferred by the available data on the redshift distribution of gravitational lenses. We perform an analysis of the possible systematic effects, finding that the systematic errors due to sample incompleteness, galaxy evolution, and model uncertainties approximately equal the statistical errors, with present-day data. We find that the largest sources of systemic errors are the dynamical normalization and the high-velocity cutoff factor, followed by the faint-end slope of the velocity dispersion function.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

The black hole mass of NGC 4151. II. Stellar dynamical measurement from near-infrared integral field spectroscopy

We present a revised measurement of the mass of the central black hole (M{sub BH} ) in the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 4151. The new stellar dynamical mass measurement is derived by applying an axisymmetric orbit-superposition code to near-infrared integral field data obtained using adaptive optics with the Gemini Near-infrared Integral Field Spectrograph (NIFS). When our models attempt to fit both the NIFS kinematics and additional low spatial resolution kinematics, our results depend sensitively on how χ{sup 2} is computed—probably a consequence of complex bar kinematics that manifest immediately outside the nuclear region. The most robust results are obtained when only the high spatial resolution kinematic constraints in the nuclear region are included in the fit. Our best estimates for the black hole mass and H-band mass-to-light ratio are M{sub BH} ∼ 3.76 ± 1.15 × 10{sup 7} M{sub ☉} (1σ error) and Y{sub H} ∼ 0.34 ± 0.03 M{sub ☉}/L{sub ☉} (3σ error), respectively (the quoted errors reflect the model uncertainties). Our black hole mass measurement is consistent with estimates from both reverberation mapping (3.57{sub −0.37}{sup +0.45}×10{sup 7} M{sub ⊙}) and gas kinematics (3.0{sub −2.2}{sup +0.75}×10{sup 7} M{sub ⊙}; 1σ errors), and our best-fit mass-to-light ratio is consistent with the photometric estimate of Y{sub H} = 0.4 ± 0.2 M{sub ☉}/L{sub ☉}. The NIFS kinematics give a central bulge velocity dispersion σ{sub c} = 116 ± 3 km s{sup –1}, bringing this object slightly closer to the M{sub BH}-σ relation for quiescent galaxies. Although NGC 4151 is one of only a few Seyfert 1 galaxies in which it is possible to obtain a direct dynamical black hole mass measurement—and thus, an independent calibration of the reverberation mapping mass scale—the complex bar kinematics makes it less than ideally suited for this purpose.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

STRONG LENS TIME DELAY CHALLENGE. II. RESULTS OF TDC1

We present the results of the first strong lens time delay challenge. The motivation, experimental design, and entry level challenge are described in a companion paper. This paper presents the main challenge, TDC1, which consisted of analyzing thousands of simulated light curves blindly. The observational properties of the light curves cover the range in quality obtained for current targeted efforts (e.g., COSMOGRAIL) and expected from future synoptic surveys (e.g., LSST), and include simulated systematic errors. Seven teams participated in TDC1, submitting results from 78 different method variants. After describing each method, we compute and analyze basic statistics measuring accuracy (or bias) A, goodness of fit χ{sup 2}, precision P, and success rate f. For some methods we identify outliers as an important issue. Other methods show that outliers can be controlled via visual inspection or conservative quality control. Several methods are competitive, i.e., give |A| < 0.03, P < 0.03, and χ{sup 2} < 1.5, with some of the methods already reaching sub-percent accuracy. The fraction of light curves yielding a time delay measurement is typically in the range f = 20%-40%. It depends strongly on the quality of the data: COSMOGRAIL-quality cadence and light curve lengths yield significantly higher f than does sparser sampling. Taking the results of TDC1 at face value, we estimate that LSST should provide around 400 robust time-delay measurements, each with P < 0.03 and |A| < 0.01, comparable to current lens modeling uncertainties. In terms of observing strategies, we find that A and f depend mostly on season length, while P depends mostly on cadence and campaign duration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Investigating Hα, UV, and IR star-formation rate diagnostics for a large sample of z ∼ 2 galaxies

We use a sample of 262 spectroscopically confirmed star-forming galaxies at redshifts 2.08⩽z⩽2.51 to compare Hα, ultraviolet (UV), and IR star formation rate (SFR) diagnostics and to investigate the dust properties of the galaxies. At these redshifts, the Hα line shifts to the K{sub s} band. By comparing K{sub s}-band photometry to underlying stellar population model fits to other UV, optical, and near-infrared data, we infer the Hα flux for each galaxy. We obtain the best agreement between Hα- and UV-based SFRs if we assume that the ionized gas and stellar continuum are reddened by the same value and that the Calzetti attenuation curve is applied to both. Aided with MIPS 24 μm data, we find that an attenuation curve steeper than the Calzetti curve is needed to reproduce the observed IR/UV ratios of galaxies younger than 100 Myr. Furthermore, using the bolometric SFR inferred from the UV and mid-IR data (SFR{sub IR}+SFR{sub UV}), we calculated the conversion between the Hα luminosity and SFR to be (7.5±1.3)×10{sup −42} for a Salpeter initial mass function, which is consistent with the Kennicutt conversion. The derived conversion factor is independent of any assumption of the dust correction and is robust to stellar population model uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Influence of ∼7 keV sterile neutrino dark matter on the process of reionization

Recent reports of a weak unidentified emission line at ∼3.5 keV found in spectra of several matter-dominated objects may give a clue to resolve the long-standing problem of dark matter. One of the best physically motivated particle candidate able to produce such an extra line is sterile neutrino with the mass of ∼7 keV . Previous works show that sterile neutrino dark matter with parameters consistent with the new line measurement modestly affects structure formation compared to conventional cold dark matter scenario. In this work, we concentrate for the first time on contribution of the sterile neutrino dark matter able to produce the observed line at ∼3.5 keV, to the process of reionization. By incorporating dark matter power spectra for ∼7 keV sterile neutrinos into extended semi-analytical 'bubble' model of reionization we obtain that such sterile neutrino dark matter would produce significantly sharper reionization compared to widely used cold dark matter models, impossible to 'imitate' within the cold dark matter scenario under any reasonable choice of our model parameters, and would have a clear tendency of lowering both the redshift of reionization and the electron scattering optical depth (although the difference is still below the existing model uncertainties). Further dedicated studies of reionization (such as 21 cm measurements or studies of kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect) will thus be essential for reconstruction of particle candidate responsible the ∼3.5 keV line.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advances in understanding the changes of tropical rainfall annual cycle: a review

Abstract Aided by progress in the theoretical understanding, new knowledge on tropical rainfall annual cycle changes under a global warming background has been advanced in the past decade. In this review, we focus on recent advances in understanding the changes of tropical rainfall annual cycle, including its four distinct features: amplitude, spatial pattern shift, phase and wet/dry season length changes. Here, amplitude refers to the local summer-winter rainfall contrast and phase refers to the timing of rainfall annual cycle. In a warming climate, the amplitude is enhanced, more evidently over ocean, while the phase is delayed, mainly over land. The former is explained by the wet-get-wetter mechanism and the latter is explained by the enhanced effective atmospheric heat capacity and increased convective barrier. The phase delay over land has already emerged in the past four decades. The spatial pattern shift under warming is marked by two features: equatorward shift of the ITCZ throughout the year and the land-to-ocean precipitation shift in the rainy season. The former is explained by the upped-ante mechanism and/or related to the enhanced equatorial warming in a warmer world. The latter may be caused by the opposite land and ocean surface temperature annual cycle changes in the tropics. Over tropical rainforest regions such as Amazon and Congo Basin, the dry season has lengthened in the recent decades, but the fundamental reason is still unclear. Despite the notable progress in the research of tropical rainfall annual cycle change, many gaps remain in understanding its mechanisms, quantifying and attributing its historical emergence, narrowing the inter-model uncertainty of its future projections, and evaluating its global impact, motivating future work guided by some directions proposed in this review.

Song, Fengfei (ORCID:0000000230041749)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: cosmology with moments of weak lensing mass maps – validation on simulations

ABSTRACT We present a simulated cosmology analysis using the second and third moments of the weak lensing mass (convergence) maps. The second moment, or variances, of the convergence as a function of smoothing scale contains information similar to standard shear two-point statistics. The third moment, or the skewness, contains additional non-Gaussian information. The analysis is geared towards the third year (Y3) data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), but the methodology can be applied to other weak lensing data sets. We present the formalism for obtaining the convergence maps from the measured shear and for obtaining the second and third moments of these maps given partial sky coverage. We estimate the covariance matrix from a large suite of numerical simulations. We test our pipeline through a simulated likelihood analyses varying 5 cosmological parameters and 10 nuisance parameters and identify the scales where systematic or modelling uncertainties are not expected to affect the cosmological analysis. Our simulated likelihood analysis shows that the combination of second and third moments provides a 1.5 per cent constraint on S8 ≡ σ8(Ωm/0.3)0.5 for DES Year 3 data. This is 20 per cent better than an analysis using a simulated DES Y3 shear two-point statistics, owing to the non-Gaussian information captured by the inclusion of higher order statistics. This paper validates our methodology for constraining cosmology with DES Year 3 data, which will be presented in a subsequent paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fundamental physics with ESPRESSO: a new determination of the D/H ratio towards PKS1937-101

ABSTRACT Primordial abundances of light elements are sensitive to the physics of the early Universe and can directly constrain cosmological quantities, such as the baryon-to-photon ratio $\eta _{10}$, the baryon density, and the number of neutrino families. Deuterium is especially suited for these studies: its primordial abundance is sensitive and monotonically dependent on $\eta _{10}$, allowing an independent measurement of the cosmic baryon density that can be compared, for instance, against the Planck satellite data. The primordial deuterium abundance can be measured in high H i column density absorption systems towards distant quasars. We report here a new measurement, based on high-resolution ESPRESSO data, of the primordial D i abundance of a system at redshift $z \sim 3.572$, towards PKS1937-101. Using only ESPRESSO data, we find a D /H ratio of $2.638\pm 10^{-5}$, while including the available UVES data improves the precision, leading to a ratio of $2.608 \pm 10^{-5}$. The results of this analysis agree with those of the most precise existing measurements. We find that the relatively low column density of this system ($\log {N_{\rm H_I}/ {\rm cm}^{-2}}\sim 18$) introduces modelling uncertainties, which become the main contributor to the error budget.

Guarneri, Francesco (ORCID:0000000347409762)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Clustering redshifts and importance sampling of self-organized-maps 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations for 3 × 2 ⁢pt samples

This work is part of a series establishing the redshift framework for the 3 × 2 ⁢pt analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6). For DES Y6, photometric redshift distributions are estimated using self-organizing maps (SOMs), calibrated with spectroscopic and many-band photometric data. To overcome limitations from color-redshift degeneracies and incomplete spectroscopic coverage, we enhance this approach by incorporating clustering-based redshift constraints (clustering-z, or WZ) from angular cross-correlations with BOSS and eBOSS galaxies and eBOSS quasar samples. We define a WZ likelihood and apply importance sampling to a large ensemble of SOM-derived 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations, selecting those consistent with the clustering measurements to produce a posterior sample for each lens and source bin. The analysis uses angular scales corresponding to 1.5–5 Mpc to optimize signal-to-noise ratio while mitigating modeling uncertainties and marginalizes over redshift-dependent galaxy bias and other systematics informed by the N-body simulation CARDINAL . While a sparser spectroscopic reference sample limits WZ constraining power at 𝑧 >1.1, particularly for source bins, we demonstrate that combining SOM with WZ improves redshift accuracy and enhances the overall cosmological constraining power of DES Y6. As a result, we estimate an improvement in 𝑆 8 of approximately 10% for cosmic shear and 3 ×2⁢pt analysis, primarily due to the WZ calibration of the source samples.

Cosmological parameters↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect with ACT and DESI luminous red galaxies

Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) photons scatter off the free-electron gas in galaxies and clusters, allowing us to use the CMB as a backlight to probe the gas in and around low-redshift galaxies. The thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect, sourced by hot electrons in high-density environments, measures the thermal pressure of the target objects, shedding light on halo thermodynamics and galaxy formation, and providing a path toward understanding the baryon distribution around cosmic structures. We use a combination of high-resolution CMB maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and photometric luminous red galaxy catalogs from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument to measure the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich signal in four redshift bins from 𝑧 = 0.4 to 𝑧 = 1.2, with a combined detection significance of 19⁢𝜎 when stacking on the fiducial CMB Compton-𝑦 map. We discuss possible sources of contamination, finding that residual dust emission associated with the target galaxies is important and limits current analyses. We discuss several mitigation strategies and quantify the residual modeling uncertainty. Furthermore, this work complements closely related measurements of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich and weak lensing of the same galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗