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At least 865 records · Page 48

Cluster-dynamics-based parameterization for sulfuric acid–dimethylamine nucleation: comparison and selection through box and three-dimensional modeling

Clustering of gaseous sulfuric acid (SA) enhanced by dimethylamine (DMA) is a major mechanism for new particle formation (NPF) in polluted atmospheres. However, uncertainty remains regarding the SA–DMA nucleation parameterization that reasonably represents cluster dynamics and is applicable across various atmospheric conditions. This uncertainty hinders accurate three-dimensional (3-D) modeling of NPF and the subsequent assessment of its environmental and climatic impacts. Here we extensively compare different cluster-dynamics-based parameterizations for SA–DMA nucleation and identify the most reliable one through a combination of box model simulations, 3-D modeling, and in situ observations. Results show that the parameterization derived from Atmospheric Cluster Dynamic Code (ACDC) simulations, incorporating the latest theoretical insights (DLPNO-CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVTZ//ωB97X-D/6-311++G(3df,3pd) level of theory) and adequate representation of cluster dynamics, exhibits dependable performance in 3-D NPF simulation for both winter and summer conditions in Beijing and shows promise for application in diverse atmospheric conditions. Another ACDC-derived parameterization, replacing the level of theory with RI-CC2/aug-cc-pV(T+d)Z//M06-2X/6–311++G(3df,3pd), also performs well in NPF modeling at relatively low temperatures around 280 K but exhibits limitations at higher temperatures due to inappropriate representation of SA–DMA cluster thermodynamics. Additionally, a previously reported parameterization incorporating simplifications is applicable for simulating NPF in polluted atmospheres but tends to overestimate particle formation rates under conditions of elevated temperature (>∼300 K) and low-condensation sink (<∼3×10 -3 s −1 ). Our findings highlight the applicability of the new ACDC-derived parameterization, which couples the latest SA–DMA nucleation theory and holistic cluster dynamics, in 3-D NPF modeling. The ACDC-derived parameterization framework provides a valuable reference for developing parameterizations for other nucleation systems.

Shen, Jiewen↗

Constructing a Simulation Surrogate with Partially Observed Output

Gaussian process surrogates are a popular alternative to directly using computationally expensive simulation models. When the simulation output consists of many responses, dimension-reduction techniques are often employed to construct these surrogates. However, surrogate methods with dimension reduction generally rely on complete output training data. This article proposes a new Gaussian process surrogate method that permits the use of partially observed output while remaining computationally efficient. The new method involves the imputation of missing values and the adjustment of the covariance matrix used for Gaussian process inference. The resulting surrogate represents the available responses, disregards the missing responses, and provides meaningful uncertainty quantification. In conclusion, the proposed approach is shown to offer sharper inference than alternatives in a simulation study and a case study where an energy density functional model that frequently returns incomplete output is calibrated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Three-dimensional model of intracellular and intercellular Ca2+ waves propagation in endothelial cells

Highlights: • Image-based 3D simulation model for intercellular and intracellular Ca{sup 2+} waves. • Metabolic reactions were divided into membrane and cytoplasm domains. • Ca{sup 2+} and IP{sub 3} diffused across the cell and gap junctions. • Ca{sup 2+} waves are propagated from focal stimulated point in numerical simulation. • Ca{sup 2+} wave speed was in agreement with those from cell culture experiments. Intracellular and intercellular Ca{sup 2+} waves play key roles in cellular functions, and focal stimulation triggers Ca{sup 2+} wave propagation from stimulation points to neighboring cells, involving localized metabolism reactions and specific diffusion processes. Among these, inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate (IP{sub 3}) is produced at membranes and diffuses into the cytoplasm to release Ca{sup 2+} from endoplasmic reticulum (ER). In this study, we developed a three-dimensional (3D) simulation model for intercellular and intracellular Ca{sup 2+} waves in endothelial cells (ECs). 3D model of 2 cells was reconstructed from confocal microscopic images and was connected via gap junctions. Cells have membrane and cytoplasm domains, and metabolic reactions were divided into each domain. Finally, the intracellular and intercellular Ca{sup 2+} wave propagations were induced using microscopic stimulation and were compared between numerical simulations and experiments. The experiments showed that initial sharp increases in intracellular Ca{sup 2+} occurred approximately 0.3 s after application of stimuli. In addition, Ca{sup 2+} wave speeds remained constant in cells, with intracellular and intercellular speeds of approximately 35 and 15 μm/s, respectively. Simulations indicated initial increases in Ca{sup 2+} concentrations at points of stimulation, and these were then propagated across stimulated and neighboring cells. In particular, initial rapid increases in intracellular Ca{sup 2+} were delayed and subsequent intracellular and intercellular Ca{sup 2+} wave speeds were approximately 25 and 12 μm/s, respectively. Simulation results were in agreement with those from cell culture experiments, indicating the utility of our 3D model for investigations of intracellular and intercellular messaging in ECs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Conceptual and Mathematical Foundation for the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model for Simulating CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery, Version 2

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy (FE) at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has developed the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model, which is Version 2 of CO 2 Prophet. This document describes the mathematical foundation for the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model. CO 2 Prophet was originally developed in the 1990s by Texaco Exploration and Production and Technology Department for DOE. The FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model is an oil reservoir simulator that is suitable for simulating water floods and supercritical carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) enhanced oil recovery (EOR). The FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model uses a number of assumptions to simplify the equations describing the flow of oil, water (or brine), and CO 2 in the oil reservoir.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Combining geometric-optical and spectral invariants theories for modeling canopy fluorescence anisotropy

The spectral invariants theory ( p -theory) has received much attention in the field of quantitative remote sensing over the past few decades and has been adopted for modeling of canopy solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF). However, the spectral invariant properties (SIP) in simple analytical formulae have not been applied for modeling canopy fluorescence anisotropy primarily because they are parameterized in terms of leaf total scattering, which precludes the differentiation between forward and backward leaf SIF emissions. In this study, we have developed the canopy-SIP SIF model by combining geometric-optical (GO) theory to account for asymmetric leaf SIF forward and backward emissions at the first-order scattering and by modeling multiple scattering based on the p-theory, thus avoiding the dependence on radiative transfer models. The applicability of the model simulations especially over 3D heterogeneous canopies was improved by incorporating canopy structure through multi-angular clumping index, and by modeling single scattering from the four components of the scene in view according to the GO approach. The results show good consistency with both the state-of-the-art SIF models and multi-angular field SIF observations over grass and chickpea canopies. Further, the coefficient of determination (R²) between the simulated SIF and field measurements was 0.75 (red) and 0.74 (far-red) for chickpea, and 0.65 (both red and far-red) for grass. The average relative error was approximately 3% for 1D homogeneous scenes when comparing the canopy-SIP SIF model simulations to the SCOPE model simulations, and around 4% for the 3D heterogeneous scene when comparing to the LESS model simulations. The results indicate that the proposed approach for separating asymmetric leaf SIF emissions is a robust way to keep a balance between satisfactory simulation accuracy and efficiency. Model simulations suggest that neglecting the leaf SIF asymmetry can lead to an underestimation of canopy red SIF by 6.3% to 42.6% for various leaf biochemical and canopy structural parameters. This study presents a simple but efficient analytical approach for canopy fluorescence modeling, with potential for large-scale canopy fluorescence simulations.

3D heterogeneous structure↗

Utilization of municipal wastewater for cooling in thermoelectric power plants

A process simulation model has been developed using Aspen Plus® with the OLI (OLI System, Inc.) water chemistry model to predict water quality in the recirculating cooling loop utilizing secondary- and tertiary-treated municipal wastewater as the source of makeup water. Simulation results were compared with pilot-scale experimental data on makeup water alkalinity, loop pH, and ammonia evaporation. The effects of various parameters including makeup water quality, salt formation, NH 3 and CO 2 evaporation mass transfer coefficients, heat load, and operating temperatures were investigated. The results indicate that, although the simulation model can capture the general trends in the loop pH, experimental data on the rates of salt precipitation in the system are needed for more accurate prediction of the loop pH. It was also found that stripping of ammonia and carbon dioxide in the cooling tower can influence the cooling loop pH significantly. The effects of the NH 3 mass transfer coefficient on cooling loop pH appear to be more significant at lower values (e.g., k NH3 < 4×10 -3 m/s) when the makeup water alkalinity is low (e.g., <90 mg/L as CaCO 3 ). The effect of the CO2 mass transfer coefficient was found to be significant only at lower alkalinity values (e.g., k CO2 <4×10 -6 m/s).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Global System for Transportation Simulation and Visualization in Emergency Evacuation Scenarios

Simulation-based studies are frequently used for evacuation planning and decision making processes. Given the transportation systems complexity and data availability, most evacuation simulation models focus on certain geographic areas. With routine improvement of OpenStreetMap road networks and LandScanTM global population distribution data, we present WWEE, a uniform system for world-wide emergency evacuation simulations. WWEE uses unified data structure for simulation inputs. It also integrates a super-node trip distribution model as the default simulation parameter to improve the system computational performance. Two levels of visualization tools are implemented for evacuation performance analysis, including link-based macroscopic visualization and vehicle-based microscopic visualization. For left-hand and right-hand traffic patterns in different countries, the authors propose a mirror technique to experiment with both scenarios without significantly changing traffic simulation models. Ten cities in US, Europe, Middle East, and Asia are modeled for demonstration. With default traffic simulation models for fast and easy-to-use evacuation estimation and visualization, WWEE also retains the capability of interactive operation for users to adopt customized traffic simulation models. For the first time, WWEE provides a unified platform for global evacuation researchers to estimate and visualize their strategies performance of transportation systems under evacuation scenarios.

Emergency Evacuation↗

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗

Aggregation of Inverter-Based Resources for Modeling and Simulation

In order to conduct system dynamic studies, it is necessary to have dynamic models of both inverter and plant levels. Detailed and aggregated modeling approaches are two essential options. The detailed modeling method involves capturing the dynamic characteristics of each individual device (e.g., wind turbine or PV array), as well as their interconnections. However, as the scale of the IBR plant increases, the complexity and computation time required for detailed modeling also increase. On the other hand, aggregated modeling offers a more efficient way of representing large-scale IBRs in power system dynamic studies. This approach involves aggregating a large number of wind turbines, PV arrays, inverters, and/or plant controllers into one or a smaller number of equivalent models. In order to analyze the impact of a high-level IBR penetration in power systems, it is important to develop accurate and computationally efficient models for both the detailed and aggregated methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Bayesian optimization for inverse calibration of expensive computer models: A case study for Johnson-Cook model in machining

Inverse model calibration for identifying the constitutive model parameters can be computationally demanding for expensive-to-evaluate simulation models. Here, this paper presents a modified Bayesian optimization (BO) method, denoted as BO-bound, that incorporates theoretical bounds on the quantity of interest. A case study for the inverse calibration of the Johnson Cook (J-C) flow stress model parameters is presented using machining (cutting) force data. The results show fast calibration of the five J-C parameters within 25 simulations. In general, the BO-bound method is applicable for inverse calibration of any expensive simulation models as well as optimization problems with known bounds.

Bayesian optimization↗

Overview of modelling and simulation of metal powder bed fusion process at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

The metal laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing process uses high power lasers to build parts layer upon layer by melting fine metal powders. Qualification of parts produced using this technology is broadly recognised as a significant challenge. Physics based process models have been identified as being foundational to qualification of additively manufactured metal parts. In the present article, a multiscale modelling strategy is described that will serve as the foundation upon which process control and part qualification can be built. This includes a model at the scale of the powder that simulates single track/single multilayer builds and provides powder bed and melt pool thermal data. A second model computationally builds a complete part and predicts manufactured properties (residual stress, dimensional accuracy) in three dimensions. Finally, modelling is tied to experiment through data mining.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modeling and Simulating Diffused Aeration for Hydrogen Removal from Expansion Tanks of Parabolic Trough Solar Thermal Power Plants

High-temperature decomposition of organic heat transfer fluids (HTFs) can cause hydrogen build-up in the receiver annulus of parabolic trough power plants. This build-up increases the receiver thermal losses and results in a decline in power output. Prior work has shown that removal of hydrogen from the expansion tank can be an effective mitigation strategy. This paper presents a modeling methodology and simulation results for passive and diffused aeration removal of hydrogen from the expansion tank. Focus is on estimating the mass transfer of hydrogen from the HTF into the headspace gas across the surface and bubble liquid/gas interfaces. Simulations for the operation conditions and expansion tank geometry of the Nevada Solar One power plant (located near Las Vegas, Nevada, USA) show that passive removal (surface mass transfer only) may be sufficient to obtain hydrogen removal rates of 1.7 x 10-4 mol/s (minimal removal rate necessary). A diffused aeration system (surface plus bubble mass transfer) with gas injection volume rates up to 100 L/s may be necessary to obtain a hydrogen removal rate of 2.0 x 10-4 mol/s (optimal removal rate).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modeling and Simulation of Ternary Pumped Storage Hydropower for Power System Studies

As the deployment of wind and solar energy increases in the United States, energy storage (ES) will play an important role in future electric power grids. To help manage the variability from high penetration levels of renewable generation, ES can provide promising power/energy demand to coordinate with renewables generation, as a virtual power plant (VPP). There is an industry need for the capability in power system studies to model ternary pumped storage hydropower (T-PSH) that offers increased system benefits. This paper presents a comprehensive vendor-neutral dynamic model of T-PSH in GE's commercial software positive sequence load flow (PSLF). A new governor model is developed with detailed gate valve modeling and a shared-penstock function. Specifically, this model is designed to simulate the seamless transition among three operation modes: generation mode, pumping mode, and hydraulic short-circuit mode. The developed T-PSH model has been tested and validated on a 10-bus test system. A comparison study of T-PSH to conventional pumped storage hydropower has also been conducted on the Western Interconnection system.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Development of Macroscale Models of UO 2 Fuel Sintering and Densification using Multiscale Modeling and Simulation

Light water reactor fuel pellets are fabricated using sintering to final densities of 95% or greater. During reactor operation, the porosity remaining in the fuel after fabrication decreases further due to irradiation-assisted densification. While empirical models have been developed to describe this densification process, a mechanistic model is needed as part of the ongoing work by the NEAMS program to develop a more predictive fuel performance code. In this work we will develop a phase field model of sintering of UO 2 in the MARMOT code, and validate it by comparing to published sintering data. We will then add the capability to capture irradiation effects into the model, and use it to develop a mechanistic model of densification that will go into the BISON code and add another essential piece to the microstructure-based materials models. The final step will be to add the effects of applied fields, to model field-assisted sintering of UO 2 . The results of the phase field model will be validated by comparing to data from field-assisted sintering. Tasks over three years: 1. Develop a sintering model for UO 2 in MARMOT 2. Expand model to account for irradiation effects 3. Develop a mechanistic macroscale model of densification for BISON

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The Robust Dynamical Contribution to Precipitation Extremes in Idealized Warming Simulations across Model Resolutions

The impact of the circulation shift under climate warming on the distribution of precipitation extremes and the associated sensitivity to model resolution are investigated using the aquaplanet Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. The response of the probability density function of the precipitation to a uniform SST warming can be interpreted as superimposition of a dynamically induced poleward shift and a thermodynamically induced upward shift toward higher intensities, which give rise to manyfold increase in the frequency of the most extreme categories of the precipitation events at the poleward side of the midlatitude storm track. Meanwhile, the thermodynamic contribution to the intensification of the precipitation extremes is substantially less than expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, implicative of significant change in the vertical structure of the precipitation processes. While coarser resolutions underestimate the dynamical contribution to the increase of precipitation extremes, a modest increase of the equator-to-pole SST warming gradient can have a significant opposite effect.

dynamical↗

Modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea

Here we present a modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea—a large and complex estuarine system in the Pacific Northwest that is exposed to extratropical cyclones. A method was developed to systematically identify storm surge events in the Salish Sea based on water level records at four representative tidal gauges in the Salish Sea. The maximum storm surge distribution in the Salish Sea was calculated based on model simulations of 34 major historical storm events from 1980 to 2016. The model simulations were validated by field observations of water level and velocity using a suite of model performance metrics. Model results suggest that the maximum storm surge in the Salish Sea is generally in the range of 0.8 m–1.03 m and is heterogeneous in space. The model results also show a strong north-south gradient with larger surge magnitudes occurring in the north that is primarily caused by the southerly wind in winter months. The sensitivity analysis of wind forcing suggested that storm surge in the Salish Sea is dominated by the remote surge from the Pacific Ocean, and the local wind contributes up to approximately 20% of the surge variability. This paper systematically elucidates storm surge characteristics and potential risk in the Salish Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ocean cavity regime shift reversed West Antarctic grounding line retreat in the late Holocene

Recent geologic and modeled evidence suggests that the grounding line of the Siple Coast of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreated hundreds of kilometers beyond its present position in the middle to late Holocene and readvanced within the past 1.7 ka. This grounding line reversal has been attributed to both changing rates of isostatic rebound and regional climate change. Here, we test these two hypotheses using a proxy-informed ensemble of ice sheet model simulations with varying ocean thermal forcing, global glacioisostatic adjustment (GIA) model simulations, and coupled ice sheet-GIA simulations that consider the interactions between these processes. Our results indicate that a warm to cold ocean cavity regime shift is the most likely cause of this grounding line reversal, but that GIA influences the rate of ice sheet response to oceanic changes. This implies that the grounding line here is sensitive to future changes in sub-ice shelf ocean circulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hourly temperature and surface water level at the Ikpikpuk delta from 5/2012 to 11/2012

This data package includes the soil temperature and surface water level observations in 2012 at the Ikpikpuk River delta in northern Alaska. The data file consists of the observation table with both the .xlsx and .csv file formats. The files can be accessed through several software tools, like Microsoft Excel, and text editors. This is raw data from the near-surface ground temperature sensors at 15 cm (active layer) and 100 cm (permafrost) soil depth and a surface water sensor at the Ikpikpuk delta site in Alaska, US. The Ikpikpuk River delta is located on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. The Ikpikpuk River drains a land area of 15,330 km2, emptying into Smith Bay, and the delta is fan-shaped with an aerial extent of 106 km2 (Fuchs et al., 2018). This dataset supports the publication entitled "The thermal response of permafrost to coastal floodplain flooding" submitted to Environmental Research Letters (under review), where the observed water level is used as the upper boundary condition for the model simulations and the observed subsurface temperature is compared with the model simulations to answer the question about how coastal flooding affects permafrost thaw.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗