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The Muscles Treasury Survey. I. Motivation and Overview

Ground- and space-based planet searches employing radial velocity techniques and transit photometry have detected thousands of planet-hosting stars in the Milky Way. With so many planets discovered, the next step toward identifying potentially habitable planets is atmospheric characterization. While the Sun-Earth system provides a good framework for understanding the atmospheric chemistry of Earth-like planets around solar-type stars, the observational and theoretical constraints on the atmospheres of rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) around low-mass stars (K and M dwarfs) are relatively few. The chemistry of these atmospheres is controlled by the shape and absolute flux of the stellar spectral energy distribution (SED), however, flux distributions of relatively inactive low-mass stars are poorly understood at present. To address this issue, we have executed a panchromatic (X-ray to mid-IR) study of the SEDs of 11 nearby planet-hosting stars, the Measurements of the Ultraviolet Spectral Characteristics of Low-mass Exoplanetary Systems (MUSCLES) Treasury Survey. The MUSCLES program consists visible observations from Hubble and ground-based observatories. Infrared and astrophysically inaccessible wavelengths (EUV and Lyalpha) are reconstructed using stellar model spectra to fill in gaps in the observational data. In this overview and the companion papers describing the MUSCLES survey, we show that energetic radiation (X-ray and ultraviolet) is present from magnetically active stellar atmospheres at all times for stars as late as M6. The emission line luminosities of C IV and Mg II are strongly correlated with band-integrated luminosities and we present empirical relations that can be used to estimate broadband FUV and XUV (is equivalent to X-ray + EUV) fluxes from individual stellar emission line measurements. We find that while the slope of the SED, FUV/NUV, increases by approximately two orders of magnitude form early K to late M dwarfs (approximately equal 0.01-1), the absolute FUV and XUV flux levels at their corresponding HZ distances are constant to within factors of a few, spanning the range 10-70 erg per (sq cm) s in the HZ. Despite the lack of strong stellar activity indicators in their optical spectra, several of the M dwarfs in our sample show spectacular UV flare emission in their light curves. We present an example with flare/quiescent ultraviolet flux ratios of the order of 100:1 where the transition region energy output during the flare is comparable to the total quiescent luminosity of the star E(sub flare)(UV) approximately 0.3 L(sub *) delta (t) (delta t = 1 s). Finally, we interpret enhanced L(line)/L(sub Bol) ratios for C IV and N V as tentative observational evidence for the interaction of planets with large planetary mass-to-orbital distance ratios (M(sub plan)/A(sub plan)) with the transition regions of their host stars.

Infrared and astrophysically inaccessible waveleng↗

Experimental investigation of turbulent wake flows in a helically wrapped rod bundle in presence of localized blockages

In nuclear sodium fast reactors, bundles of rods are tightly packed into a triangular lattice, enclosed in a hexagonal duct, and each pin is spirally wrapped with a thin wire. Flow blockages can potentially impact the local flow characteristics and heat transfer mechanisms in the bundle due to its small subchannel size. The effects of the blockage on the flow structures and heat transfer mechanisms are important aspects that require an accurate investigation. In this study, the flow-field characteristics in the vicinity of a blockage located in the exterior subchannel of rod bundles with helically wrapped wires were experimentally investigated. The velocity fields in the exterior subchannel were acquired by applying matched-index-of-refraction and time-resolved particle image velocimetry (TR-PIV) techniques for Reynolds numbers of Re 1 = 4000 and Re 2 = 17 000, i.e., equivalent to Rew 1 = 19 600 and Rew 2 = 83 200, respectively, based on the blockage width. The results from the TR-PIV measurements revealed an arch-shaped vortex with a large flow recirculation and a pair of counter-rotating vortices in the wake region downstream of the blockage, which is commonly observed in the wake flow of bluff bodies. The relative lateral distance and angle between the two vortices decreased when the Reynolds numbers increased. Profiles of maximum turbulence intensity along the shear layers illustrated the transition process including the growth, peak, and decay along the flow direction. From the spectral analysis of the turbulent velocities extracted at points along the shear layer, the Strouhal numbers ( St ) representing the vortex shedding frequency were found to be St = 0.25 and St = 0.56 for the left and right shear layers, respectively. Characteristics of shear layers generated by the blockage in the exterior subchannel were investigated via the two-point cross correlation of fluctuating velocities. The patiotemporal cross correlations of turbulent velocities, computed at points in the region where the left shear layer exhibited rolling effects and vortex breakdowns, were considerably wider and longer. The convection velocity U c was estimated to be ~0.82 U m to 0.93 U m . Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) analysis was applied to the instantaneous velocity fields to extract the statistically dominant flow structures. It was found that POD modes 2–3 and 4–5 formed the pair modes when the corresponding POD temporal coefficients depicted sinusoidal shapes and exhibited nearly circular orbits in the phase space. Spectral analysis of the POD temporal coefficients confirmed the vortex shedding frequencies detected in the analysis of turbulent velocities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Application of X-Ray Pulsar Navigation: A Characterization of the Earth Orbit Trade Space

The potential for pulsars as a navigation source has been studied since their discovery in 1967. X-ray pulsar navigation (XNAV) is a celestial navigation system that uses the consistent timing nature of x-ray photons from milli-second pulsars (MSP) to perform space navigation. By comparing the detected arrival of x-ray photons to a reference database of expected pulsar lightcurve timing models, one can infer a range and range rate measurement based on light time delay. Much of the challenge of XNAV comes from the faint signal, availability, and distant nature of pulsars. This is a study of potential pulsar XNAV measurements to measure extended Kalman filter (EKF) tracking performance with a wide trade space of bounded Earth orbits, using a simulation of existing x-ray detector space hardware. An example of an x-ray detector for XNAV is the NASA Station Explorer for X-ray Timing and Navigation (SEXTANT) mission, a technology demonstration of XNAV set to perform on the International Space Station (ISS) in late 2016early 2017. XNAV hardware implementation is driven by trajectory and environmental influences which add noise to the x-ray pulse signal. In a closed Earth orbit, the radiation environment can exponentially increase the signal noise from x-ray pulsar sources, decreasing the quality and frequency of measurements. The SEXTANT mission in particular improves on the signal to noise ratio by focusing an array of 56 x-ray silicon drift detectors at one pulsar target at a time. This reduces timing glitches and other timing noise contributions from ambient x-ray sources to within a 100 nanosecond resolution. This study also considers the SEXTANT scheduling challenges inherent in a single target observation. Finally, as the navigation sources are now relatively inertial targets, XNAV measurements are also subject to periods of occultation from various celestial bodies. This study focuses on the characterization of these drivers in closed Earth orbits and is not a tuning analysis of the EKF. The study shows that the closed Earth orbit for XNAV performance is reliant on the orbit semi-major axis and eccentricity as well as orbit inclination. These parameters are the primary drivers of pulsar measurement availability and significantly influence the natural spacecraft orbit dynamics. Sensitivity to initial orbit determination error growth due to the scarcity of XNAV measurements within an orbital period require appropriate timing of initial XNAV measurements. The orbit angles of argument of perigee and right ascension of the ascending node, alongside the other orbit parameters, complete the initial cadence of XNAV measurements. The performance of initial XNAV measurements then propagates throughout the experimental period. The study provides a basis to missions who wish to consider XNAV as a potential navigation source in a closed Earth orbit design. It provides a family of orbit trajectories as well as other modeling considerations needed to effectively evaluate if XNAV is an effective navigation source for a potential mission. As an EKF is sensitive to a linearized estimated state, this study has a direct benefit of providing effective XNAV measurements to maintain spacecraft tracking, independent of other navigation sources. In the particular use case of the SEXTANT mission, it also provides a novel scheduling algorithm which addresses the need to prioritize and manage pulsar observations for effective navigation.

PULSAR↗

Application of X-Ray Pulsar Navigation: A Characterization of the Earth Orbit Trade Space

The potential for pulsars as a navigation source has been studied since their discovery in 1967. X-ray pulsar navigation (XNAV) is a celestial navigation system that uses the consistent timing nature of x-ray photons from millisecond pulsars (MSP) to perform space navigation. By comparing the detected arrival of x-ray photons to a reference database of expected pulsar light-curve timing models, one can infer a range and range rate measurement based on light time delay. Much of the challenge of XNAV comes from the faint signal, availability, and distant nature of pulsars. This is a study of potential pulsar XNAV measurements to measure extended Kalman filter (EKF) tracking performance with a wide trade space of bounded Earth orbits, using a simulation of existing x-ray detector space hardware. An example of an x-ray detector for XNAV is the NASA Station Explorer for X-ray Timing and Navigation (SEXTANT) mission, a technology demonstration of XNAV set to perform on the International Space Station (ISS) in late 2016early 2017. XNAV hardware implementation is driven by trajectory and environmental influences which add noise to the x-ray pulse signal. In a closed Earth orbit, the radiation environment can exponentially increase the signal noise from x-ray pulsar sources, decreasing the quality and frequency of measurements. The SEXTANT mission in particular improves on the signal to noise ratio by focusing an array of 56 x-ray silicon drift detectors at one pulsar target at a time. This reduces timing glitches and other timing noise contributions from ambient x-ray sources to within a 100 nanosecond resolution. This study also considers the SEXTANT scheduling challenges inherent in a single target observation. Finally, as the navigation sources are now relatively inertial targets, XNAV measurements are also subject to periods of occultation from various celestial bodies. This study focuses on the characterization of these drivers in closed Earth orbits and is not a tuning analysis of the EKF. The study shows that the closed Earth orbit for XNAV performance is reliant on the orbit semi-major axis and eccentricity as well as orbit inclination. These parameters are the primary drivers of pulsar measurement availability and significantly influence the natural spacecraft orbit dynamics. Sensitivity to initial orbit determination error growth due to the scarcity of XNAV measurements within an orbital period require appropriate timing of initial XNAV measurements. The orbit angles of argument of perigee and right ascension of the ascending node, alongside the other orbit parameters, complete the initial cadence of XNAV measurements. The performance of initial XNAV measurements then propagates throughout the experimental period. The study provides a basis to missions who wish to consider XNAV as a potential navigation source in a closed Earth orbit design. It provides a family of orbit trajectories as well as other modeling considerations needed to effectively evaluate if XNAV is an effective navigation source for a potential mission. As an EKF is sensitive to a linearized estimated state, this study has a direct benefit of providing effective XNAV measurements to maintain spacecraft tracking, independent of other navigation sources. In the particular use case of the SEXTANT mission, it also provides a novel scheduling algorithm which addresses the need to prioritize and manage pulsar observations for effective navigation.

x-ray↗

Laser-Guided Space Interferometer

The mirrors of astronomical interferometers need to be aligned within a fraction of a wavelength relative to one another. This would be especially challenging for optical instruments with mirrors separated by hundreds of meters flying in Earth’s orbit. However, in this work, we show that this alignment can be achieved by means of: (i) flying the mirror cluster in a particular orbital configuration; (ii) closing a coarse positioning loop using GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System); and (iii) closing a fine wavefront-control loop using light from a laser guide star. The orbital configuration is designed to keep the mirrors passively pointing at the target star (up to a small orbital perturbation) while the interferometer cluster is orbiting and changing its baseline. The laser guide star would be flying in the same orbit but in the opposite direction. In medium- or high-Earth orbit, the interferometer would be able to observe a star for several hours per orbit. In this work, we analyzed the performance of an optical space interferometer consisting of nine 20 cm mirrors mounted on CubeSats and flying 3 km apart (together with a combiner and a laser guide star small satellite). This configuration supports a resolution of 0.04 milliarcseconds - an order of magnitude better than current ground-based interferometers. We estimate the performance of this system imaging stellar surfaces assuming perfect wavefront estimation and control.

Leonid Pogorelyuk↗

Quantifying Uncertainty in Particle Size Distribution Parameters Inferred from SAGE III/ISS Extinction Spectra

Stratospheric aerosols play key roles in the chemistry and radiation balance of the atmosphere and are a key input parameter for global chemistry and climate models. The degree to which aerosols impact chemistry and radiation balance depends primarily on their microphysical properties such as particle size distribution (PSD). The PSD is a mathematical description of the relative abundance of different sized particles within a sampling volume. If the PSD is accurately known then other key modeling parameters (e.g., surface area density) can be derived. Occultation observations from orbital instruments such as SAGE III/ISS have been used to infer these PSD parameters by inverting the extinction coefficient spectra. However, past efforts failed to address two key issues with this methodology: 1. The measurement uncertainty was not accounted for; 2. They assumed the PSDs to be single-mode only, while “real-world” PSDs are predominantly bi-modal. Accounting for both issues in the retrieval will yield an expanded solution space to the inferred PSD parameters; the question is “by how much?” To address this knowledge gap, we propose to carry out a series of simulations and, for every valid SAGE III/ISS data point, determine the range of PSD parameters that yield extinction spectra that are indistinguishable from the SAGE III/ISS data, within the limits of the reported uncertainty. Further, we will expand the solution space, for the first time, to include bimodal distributions. The results of this work will advance Earth system modeling/prediction capability through identifying the uncertainty of PSD parameter estimates using SAGE III/ISS data. The key benefits of this study over previous studies are twofold: 1. we will provide PSD estimates that include bimodal distributions in the solution space, 2. we will provide an uncertainty estimate for these parameters. The results of this study may be used directly in current and future climate and chemistry models.

SAGE III/ISS↗

Low SWaP Onboard Satellite Navigation, Guidance, and Control Technology

Onboard autonomy is a necessity for responsive space operations. Autonomous navigation, guidance, and control (NGC) enables space missions to reduce their dependence on high demand ground assets and costly ground personnel. It also allows for in-situ decision making and higher return on mission data. A flight software and hardware system providing this capability, called “autoNGC,” is currently being developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for infusion into multiple future missions. The first build of autoNGC, providing autonomous navigation for lunar orbiting spacecraft, is targeted for completion by Fall 2024. It provides sensor fusion of multiple measurement types including pseudo-range from a weak signal Global Navigation Satellite Service (GNSS) receiver, 1-way and 2-way direct to Earth (DTE) range and Doppler, bearing and range from optical camera sensed images, and an accelerometer. AutoNGC is also being targeted for future missions that involve small body proximity operations, Sun Earth Libration point orbits, and distributed systems missions (DSMs) including those at outer planets. AutoNGC flight software is being built upon the plug-and-play architecture of the core Flight System (cFS) [Ref. 1]. Figure (Slide 7) shows the message-based software bus layout of various software applications (“apps”) consisting of the standard cFS apps and autoNGC interface apps and libraries. Accurate onboard navigation and timing is obtained through the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System (GEONS) software library [Ref. 2], which fuses different measurement types through an extended Kalman filter (EKF) framework. Optical measurements that are ingested in GEONS are provided by the cFS Goddard Image Analysis and Navigation Tool (cGIANT) app [Ref. 3]. This app processes optical images to extract the bearing angles of the centroid of the imaged body (near or far), the range to the imaged body, and/or of the features on the surface of a body to perform terrain relative navigation (TRN). Measurement of range to the body’s center of mass can also be derived from the detection of the limb. The first build of autoNGC for a lunar orbiting spacecraft is a minimal size, weight, and power (SWaP) hardware design allowing for inclusion into CubeSats and SmallSat-size class buses. Advancements in miniaturized space processors, such as the SpaceCube 3.0 Mini and the SpaceCube Mini-Z [Ref. 4] are utilized for low SWaP while maintaining a high level of performance. Figure (Slide 11) shows the composition of the first autoNGC build. The current enclosure design has dimensions 12 cm x 17 cm x 13.5 cm. The box mass is expected to be less than 2 kg, and the nominal power is 21 W. The hardware interfaces are designed for flexibility with a variety of sensor inputs. The achievable navigation performance depends on the sensors utilized, including the onboard clock for 1-way pseudo-range measurements. Analysis using a configuration that consists of weak signal GPS, TRN, and 1-way DTE has shown position and velocity accuracies of 10 meters and 2 cm/s (3-σ ) RSS, respectively, with onboard time knowledge estimated to better than 13 ns (3-σ ), for a spacecraft in a representative 12-hour eccentric lunar orbit. Other measurement types such as x-rays from known pulsars (called XNAV) and cross-links can also be processed in GEONS. With the plug-and-play architecture of autoNGC, cFS apps can easily be added and replaced, even after launch. Goddard is actively seeking partners to collaborate in the development of additional capabilities for autoNGC, including industry, academia, and others across the US Government. Plans are being formulated to make the autoNGC software platform available for use by any US government organization to leverage the non-recurring engineering associated with the development of onboard autonomous NGC 3 capabilities. As advancements in space qualified sensors, microprocessors, and algorithms are made, the autoNGC platform provides a ready starting point for inclusion of these technologies.

C. J. Gramling↗

The MUSCLES Treasury Survey. IV. Scaling Relations for Ultraviolet, Ca ii K, and Energetic Particle Fluxes from M Dwarfs

Characterizing the UV spectral energy distribution (SED) of an exoplanet host star is critically important for assessing its planet’s potential habitability, particularly for M dwarfs, as they are prime targets for current and near-term exoplanet characterization efforts and atmospheric models predict that their UV radiation can produce photochemistry on habitable zone planets different from that on Earth. To derive ground-based proxies for UV emission for use when Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ) observations are unavailable, we have assembled a sample of 15 early to mid-M dwarfs observed by HST and compared their nonsimultaneous UV and optical spectra. We find that the equivalent width of the chromospheric Ca ii K line at 3933 Å, when corrected for spectral type, can be used to estimate the stellar surface flux in ultraviolet emission lines, including H i Ly α . In addition, we address another potential driver of habitability: energetic particle fluxes associated with flares. We present a new technique for estimating soft X-ray and >10 MeV proton flux during far-UV emission line flares (Si iv and He ii) by assuming solar-like energy partitions. We analyze several flares from the M4 dwarf GJ 876 observed with HST and Chandra as part of the MUSCLES Treasury Survey and find that habitable zone planets orbiting GJ 876 are impacted by large Carrington-like flares with peak soft X-ray fluxes ≥10{sup −3} W m{sup −2} and possible proton fluxes ∼10{sup 2}–10{sup 3} pfu, approximately four orders of magnitude more frequently than modern-day Earth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Feasibility of “Weak GPS” Real-Time Positioning/Timing at Lunar Distance

There are multiple Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS’s), comprising over 100 navigation satellites in the Earth’s medium and high orbits. Most of these satellites have antennas that point Nadir to earth, and transmit navigation signals so vehicles on Earth’s surface and in its vicinity can perform trilateration and estimate its 3-dimenional (3D) positioning. The sidelobes of these antennas can occasionally point to the Moon. It is postulated that a lunar vehicle carrying a large enough receiving antenna can occasionally detects and receives four or more sidelobes of these weak GNSS signals, thus enabling the vehicle to perform 3D positioning using an onboard GNSS receiver. We propagate the orbits of the GNSS satellites from United States’ Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) constellation, the Europe’s Galileo constellation, and the Russia’s GLONASS constellation, a total of 81 satellites. We simulate the visibility of these satellites by a lunar vehicle in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO), based on the assumption that the lunar vehicle is “in-view” of a GNSS satellite as long as it falls within the 40- degree beam-width of the satellite. We also simulate the 3D positioning performance as a function of satellites’ ephemeris errors and pseudo-range errors. The preliminary results show that the lunar vehicle can “see” 5 – 13 satellites, and achieve a 3D positioning error (one-sigma) of 200 – 300 meters based on reasonable ephemeris and pseudo- range error assumptions. We also consider the case of using relative positioning to mitigate the GNSS satellites’ ephemeris biases. That is, by assuming a reference receiver with accurately known positioning that is close to the lunar vehicle, and computing the relative position of the lunar vehicle relative to the reference.

Cheung, Kar-Ming↗

Solar Activities Associated with 3 He-rich Solar Energetic Particle Events Observed by Solar Orbiter

A series of 3 He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) events was observed by Solar Orbiter in May 2021 at a radial distance of 0.95 AU. An isolated active region AR 12824 was likely the ultimate source of these SEP events. The period of the enhanced flux of 3He was also a period of frequent type III bursts in the decametric-hectometric range, confirming their close relationship. As in past studies, we try to find the solar activities possibly responsible for 3 He-rich SEP events, using the type III bursts close to the particle injection times estimated from the velocity dispersion. But this exercise is not as straightforward as in many of the past studies since the region produced many more type III bursts and jet-like eruptions than the SEP injections. We may generalize the solar activities for the 3 He-rich SEP events in question as coronal jets, but their appearances do not necessarily conform to classic jets that consist of a footpoint and a spire. Conversely, such jets often did not accompany type III bursts. The areas that produced jet-like eruptions changed within the active region from the first to the second set of 3 He-rich SEP events, which may be related to the extended coronal mass ejection that launched stealthily.

Sun↗

The ReSWARM microgravity flight experiments: Planning, control, and model estimation for on‐orbit close proximity operations

Abstract On‐orbit close proximity operations involve robotic spacecraft maneuvering and making decisions for a growing number of mission scenarios demanding autonomy, including on‐orbit assembly, repair, and astronaut assistance. Of these scenarios, on‐orbit assembly is an enabling technology that will allow large space structures to be built in situ, using smaller building block modules. However, like many of these scenarios, robotic on‐orbit assembly involves several technical hurdles, such as changing system models. For instance, grappled modules moved by a free‐flying “assembler” robot can cause significant changes in the combined system inertia, which have cascading impacts on motion planning and control portions of the autonomy stack. Further, on‐orbit assembly and other scenarios require collision‐avoiding motion planning, particularly when operating in a “construction site” scenario of multiple assembler robots and structures. Multiple key technologies that address these complicating factors for autonomous microgravity close proximity operations are detailed in this work, in particular: (1) application of global long‐horizon planning, accomplished using offline and online sampling‐based planner options that consider the system dynamics; (2) adaptation of the recently proposed RATTLE information‐aware planning framework for on‐orbit reconfiguration model learning; and (3) connection with robust control tools to provide low‐level control robustness using current system knowledge. These approaches were demonstrated for an autonomous on‐orbit assembly use case by the RElative Satellite sWarming and Robotic Maneuvering (ReSWARM) experiments using NASA's Astrobee robots on the International Space Station. Results of the ReSWARM experiments are provided along with significant operational and implementation detail discussing the practicalities of hardware implementation and unique aspects of working with the Astrobee free‐flyer robots in microgravity. ReSWARM provides a base set of planning and control tools for robotic close proximity operations, demonstrates them in microgravity, and outlines some of the important hardware aspects that future autonomous free‐flyers will need to consider.

Robotics↗

Short-period comets

The spacecraft flybys of Comet Halley in 1986 confirmed Whipple's icy conglomerate hypothesis for cometary nuclei and showed that comets are far richer in volatiles than any other class of solar system bodies. Water is the most abundant volatile, comprising roughly 80 percent of the gas flowing out from the nucleus. Carbon monoxide is next with a content of 15 percent relative to water, though with approximately half of that coming from an extended source in the cometary coma, i.e., hydrocarbon dust grains. The detection of large numbers of hydrocarbon CHON grains was one of the more significant discoveries of the Halley flybys, as was the ground-based observation that CN occurs in jets, again indicating an extended source. Evidence was also found for more complex hydrocarbons. Estimates of the total dust-to-gas ratio for Halley range as high as 2:1, indicating that a substantial fraction of the volatile material may be tied up in solid hydrocarbons rather than ices. The role of clathrates in trapping more volatile ices is not yet understood. If Halley can be taken to be representative of all short-period comets, then the short-period comets may provide a significant source of volatiles in near-earth space. This resource is more difficult to reach dynamically than the near-earth asteriods, but the high volatile content may justify the additional effort necessary. In addition, there is considerable evidence that at least some fraction of the near-earth asteriods are extinct cometary nuclei which have evolved into asteroid orbits, and which may contain significant volatiles buried beneath an insulating lag-deposit crust of nonvolatiles. Knowledge of comets will be greatly enhanced in the near future by the Comet Rendezvous Flyby mission now under development by NASA, and by the proposed Rosetta mission.

Weissman, Paul R.↗

Air Force Reusable Booster System: A Quick-look, Design Focused Modeling and Cost Analysis Study

This paper presents a method and an initial analysis of the costs of a reusable booster system (RBS) as envisioned by the US Department of Defense (DoD) and numerous initiatives that form the concept of Operationally Responsive Space (ORS). This paper leverages the knowledge gained from decades of experience with the semi-reusable NASA Space Shuttle to understand how the costs of a military next generation semi-reusable space transport might behave in the real world - and how it might be made as affordable as desired. The NASA Space Shuttle had a semi-expendable booster, that being the reusable Solid Rocket MotorslBoosters (SRMlSRB) and the expendable cryogenic External Tank (ET), with a reusable cargo and crew capable orbiter. This paper will explore DoD concepts that invert this architectural arrangement, using a reusable booster plane that flies back to base soon after launch, with the in-space elements of the launch system being the expendable portions. Cost estimating in the earliest stages of any potential, large scale program has limited usefulness. As a result, the emphasis here is on developing an approach, a structure, and the basic concepts that could continue to be matured as the program gains knowledge. Where cost estimates are provided, these results by necessity carry many caveats and assumptions, and this analysis becomes more about ways in which drivers of costs for diverse scenarios can be better understood. The paper is informed throughout with a design-for-cost philosophy whereby the design and technology features of the proposed RBS (who and what, the "architecture") are taken as linked at the hip to a desire to perform a certain mission (where and when), and together these inform the cost, responsiveness, performance and sustainability (how) of the system. Concepts for developing, acquiring, producing or operating the system will be shown for their inextricable relationship to the "architecture" of the system, and how these too relate to costs. Design and technology features bear special relevance to early program research and development directions. Given the uncertainties involved in both their actual performance promise and their relation to costs of operational systems, this later relationship is also given special attention.

Zapata, Edgar↗

Gravity Wave Variances and Propagation Derived from AIRS Radiances

As the first gravity wave (GW) climatology study using nadir-viewing infrared sounders, 50 Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiance channels are selected to estimate GW variances at pressure levels between 2-100 hPa. The GW variance for each scan in the cross-track direction is derived from radiance perturbations in the scan, independently of adjacent scans along the orbit. Since the scanning swaths are perpendicular to the satellite orbits, which are inclined meridionally at most latitudes, the zonal component of GW propagation can be inferred by differencing the variances derived between the westmost and the eastmost viewing angles. Consistent with previous GW studies using various satellite instruments, monthly mean AIRS variance shows large enhancements over meridionally oriented mountain ranges as well as some islands at winter hemisphere high latitudes. Enhanced wave activities are also found above tropical deep convective regions. GWs prefer to propagate westward above mountain ranges, and eastward above deep convection. AIRS 90 field-of-views (FOVs), ranging from +48 deg. to −48 deg. off nadir, can detect large-amplitude GWs with a phase velocity propagating preferentially at steep angles (e.g., those from orographic and convective sources). The annual cycle dominates the GW variances and the preferred propagation directions for all latitudes. Indication of a weak two-year variation in the tropics is found, which is presumably related to the Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). AIRS geometry makes its out-tracks capable of detecting GWs with vertical wavelengths substantially shorter than the thickness of instrument weighting functions. The novel discovery of AIRS capability of observing shallow inertia GWs will expand the potential of satellite GW remote sensing and provide further constraints on the GW drag parameterization schemes in the general circulation models (GCMs).

AIRS↗

Toward a Framework for Systematic Error Modeling of NASA Spaceborne Radar with NOAA/NSSL Ground Radar-Based National Mosaic QPE

Characterization of the error associated to satellite rainfall estimates is a necessary component of deterministic and probabilistic frameworks involving space-born passive and active microwave measurement") for applications ranging from water budget studies to forecasting natural hazards related to extreme rainfall events. We focus here on the error structure of NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) at ground. The problem is addressed by comparison of PR QPEs with reference values derived from ground-based measurements using NOAA/NSSL ground radar-based National Mosaic and QPE system (NMQ/Q2). A preliminary investigation of this subject has been carried out at the PR estimation scale (instantaneous and 5 km) using a three-month data sample in the southern part of US. The primary contribution of this study is the presentation of the detailed steps required to derive trustworthy reference rainfall dataset from Q2 at the PR pixel resolution. It relics on a bias correction and a radar quality index, both of which provide a basis to filter out the less trustworthy Q2 values. Several aspects of PR errors arc revealed and quantified including sensitivity to the processing steps with the reference rainfall, comparisons of rainfall detectability and rainfall rate distributions, spatial representativeness of error, and separation of systematic biases and random errors. The methodology and framework developed herein applies more generally to rainfall rate estimates from other sensors onboard low-earth orbiting satellites such as microwave imagers and dual-wavelength radars such as with the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission.

Kirstettier, Pierre-Emmanual↗

Lunar Rover Localization Using Craters as Landmarks

Onboard localization capabilities for planetary rovers to date have used relative navigation, by integrating combinations of wheel odometry, visual odometry, and inertial measurements during each drive to track position relative to the start of each drive. At the end of each drive, a “ground-in-the-loop” (GITL) interaction is used to get a position update from human operators in a more global reference frame, such as a map frame defined by orbital reconnaissance imaging of a large region around the rover’s current position. For Mars rovers, this typically has involved downlinking imagery from the rover mast cameras and using interactive visualization tools on Earth to register such images to the orbital reconnaissance images. For safety purposes, rover mission operations typically specify “keep out zones”, which human operators recognize as being unsafe in the orbital images. Autonomous rover drives are limited in distance so that accumulated relative navigation error does not risk the possibility of the rover driving into a keep out zone. The allowable autonomous drive distance in this mode of operation depends on the distribution of keep out zones and the accuracy of relative navigation; in practice, drive limits of a few hundred meters between GITL cycles are to be expected. Several rover mission concepts have recently been studied that require much longer drives between GITL cycles, particularly for the Moon. This includes lunar rover mission concepts that involve (1) driving mostly in sunlight at low latitudes, (2) driving in permanently shadowed regions near the south pole, and (3) a mixture of day and night driving in mid-latitudes. These concepts include total traverse distance requirements of up to 1,800 km in 4 Earth years, with individual drives of several kilometers between stops for downlink. These concepts require greater autonomy to minimize GITL cycles to enable such large range; onboard global localization is a key element of such autonomy. Multiple techniques have been studied in the past for onboard rover global localization, including radio navigation aiding from an orbiter, recognizing horizon landmarks that are known in a regional elevation map, and correlating a local elevation map created onboard the rover with a regional elevation map. These techniques all have drawbacks, including requiring an expensive extra mission element (navigation orbiter), unavailability of sufficient regional elevation map data, or limited accuracy in resulting position estimates (e.g. a few hundred meters with horizon landmarks). For the Moon, the ubiquitous craters offer another possibility, which involves mapping craters from orbit, then recognizing crater landmarks with cameras and/or a lidar onboard the rover. This approach is applicable everywhere on the Moon, does not require high resolution stereo imaging from orbit as some other approaches do, and has potential to enable position knowledge with order of 10 m accuracy at all times. This paper will provide more detail on our technical approach to crater-based lunar rover localization and will present initial results on crater detection using 3-D point cloud data from onboard lidar or stereo cameras and using shading cues in monocular onboard imagery.

Ono, M.↗

Multiple symbol partially coherent detection of MPSK

It is shown that by using the known (or estimated) value of carrier tracking loop signal to noise ratio (SNR) in the decision metric, it is possible to improve the error probability performance of a partially coherent multiple phase-shift-keying (MPSK) system relative to that corresponding to the commonly used ideal coherent decision rule. Using a maximum-likeihood approach, an optimum decision metric is derived and shown to take the form of a weighted sum of the ideal coherent decision metric (i.e., correlation) and the noncoherent decision metric which is optimum for differential detection of MPSK. The performance of a receiver based on this optimum decision rule is derived and shown to provide continued improvement with increasing length of observation interval (data symbol sequence length). Unfortunately, increasing the observation length does not eliminate the error floor associated with the finite loop SNR. Nevertheless, in the limit of infinite observation length, the average error probability performance approaches the algebraic sum of the error floor and the performance of ideal coherent detection, i.e., at any error probability above the error floor, there is no degradation due to the partial coherence. It is shown that this limiting behavior is virtually achievable with practical size observation lengths. Furthermore, the performance is quite insensitive to mismatch between the estimate of loop SNR (e.g., obtained from measurement) fed to the decision metric and its true value. These results may be of use in low-cost Earth-orbiting or deep-space missions employing coded modulations.

Simon, M. K.↗

The Bastille Day Magnetic Clouds and Upstream Shocks: Near Earth Interplanetary Observations

The energetic charged particle, interplanetary magnetic field, and plasma characteristics of the 'Bastille Day' shock and ejecta/magnetic cloud events at 1 AU occurring over the days 14-16 July 2000 are described. Profiles of MeV (WIND/LEMT) energetic ions help to organize the overall sequence of events from the solar source to 1 AU. Stressed are analyses of an outstanding magnetic cloud (MC2) starting late on 15 July and its upstream shock about 4 hours earlier in WIND magnetic field and plasma data. Also analyzed is a less certain, but likely, magnetic cloud (MC1) occurring early on 15 July; this was separated from MC2 by its upstream shock and many heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossings. Other HCS crossings occurred throughout the 3-day period. Overall this dramatic series of interplanetary events caused a large multi-phase magnetic storm with min Dst lower than -300 nT. The very fast solar wind speed (greater than or equal to 1100 km/s) in and around the front of MC2 (for near average densities) was responsible for a very high solar wind ram pressure driving in the front of the magnetosphere to geocentric distances estimated to be as low as approx. 5 R(sub E), much lower than the geosynchronous orbit radius. This was consistent with magnetic field observations from two GOES satellites which indicated they were in the magnetosheath for extended times. A static force free field model is used to fit the two magnetic cloud profiles providing estimates of the clouds' physical and geometrical properties. MC2 was much larger than MCI, but their axes were nearly antiparallel, and their magnetic fields had the same left-handed helicity. MC2's axis and its upstream shock normal were very close to being perpendicular to each other, as might be expected if the cloud were driving the shock at the time of observation. The estimated axial magnetic flux carried by MC2 was 52 x 10(exp 20) Mx, which is about 5 times the typical magnetic flux estimated for other magnetic clouds in the WIND data over its first 4 years and is 17 times the flux of MC1. This large flux is due to both the strong axially-directed field of MC2 (46.8 nT on the axis) and the large radius (R(sub 0) = 0.189 AU) of the flux tube. MC2's average speed is consistent with the expected transit time from a halo-CME to which it is apparently related.

Lepping, R. P.↗