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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1978

On the apparent source depth of planetary magnetic fields

Two simple assumptions regarding the ratios of the strengths of the field contributions of the multipole moments of the terrestrial magnetic field at its effective source depth are used to examine the consistency between the apparent source depths for the magnetic fields of Mercury and Jupiter and the present understanding of their interior structure. Both fields are consistent with the present understanding. However, the comparison would be facilitated by further measurements of the magnetic fields at both planets, especially at Mercury.

Elphic, R. C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding carbon sourcing and transport originating from the helicon antenna surfaces during high-power helicon discharge in DIII-D Tokamak

The high-power helicon wave system in the DIII-D tokamak could potentially introduce new plasma–material interaction (PMI) challenges owing to rectified RF sheath potentials that develop near the antenna and surrounding plasma-facing components. We present the first application of the STRIPE (Simulated Transport of RF Impurity Production and Emission) framework to helicon-induced PMIs, extending previous STRIPE studies of ICRH antennas by incorporating net erosion, local re-deposition, and three-dimensional global impurity transport. The integrated workflow couples SOLPS, COMSOL, RustBCA, GITR, and GITRm to simulate carbon erosion, re-deposition, and impurity transport for two experimentally constrained DIII-D H-mode helicon operating scenarios with different antenna–plasma gaps, coupled RF powers, and edge plasma conditions. COMSOL predicts rectified RF sheath potentials of 1–5 kV localized near the lower portion of the antenna, where the magnetic field intersects the surface at grazing incidence. Carbon self-sputtering dominates the erosion source, whereas RF-accelerated D + ions contribute approximately 1% of the total gross erosion. The smaller-gap operating scenario exhibits substantially stronger gross erosion, enhanced local re-deposition (∼12%), and a larger confined carbon inventory owing to increased plasma accessibility and broader RF sheath coverage. Comparison with available DIII-D measurements shows no distinct change in the global carbon signal that correlates with the helicon RF pulse, consistent with the simulations indicating that the helicon-generated carbon source remains small compared with the existing background carbon inventory under the present graphite-wall operating conditions. These results demonstrate the capability of STRIPE to integrate RF sheath modeling, plasma transport, surface interaction physics, and three-dimensional impurity transport for the interpretation of helicon-induced PMIs. The study further identifies the principal sources of modeling uncertainty, including grazing-angle RF sheath physics, slow-wave resolution, plasma-background extrapolation, and trace-impurity transport assumptions, providing a framework for future validation and model development.

Kumar, Atul [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraints on Populations of Neutrino Sources from Searches in the Directions of IceCube Neutrino Alerts

Beginning in 2016, the IceCube Neutrino Observatory has sent out alerts in real time containing the information of high-energy ($E$ ≳ 100 TeV) neutrino candidate events with moderate to high (≳30%) probability of astrophysical origin. In this work, we use a recent catalog of such alert events, which, in addition to events announced in real time, includes events that were identified retroactively and covers the time period of 2011–2020. We also search for additional, lower-energy neutrinos from the arrival directions of these IceCube alerts. We show how performing such an analysis can constrain the contribution of rare populations of cosmic neutrino sources to the diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux. After searching for neutrino emission coincident with these alert events on various timescales, we find no significant evidence of either minute-scale or day-scale transient neutrino emission or of steady neutrino emission in the direction of these alert events. This study also shows how numerous a population of neutrino sources has to be to account for the complete astrophysical neutrino flux. Assuming that sources have the same luminosity, an $E$ -2.5 neutrino spectrum, and number densities that follow star formation rates, the population of sources has to be more numerous than 7 × 10 -9 Mpc -3 . This number changes to 3 × 10 -7 Mpc -3 if number densities instead have no cosmic evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2017

Variability and Quasi-Decadal Changes in the Methane Budget over the Period 2000-2012

Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000- 2012, we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008-2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16-32] Tg CH4 yr(exp -1) higher methane emissions over the period 2008-2012 compared to 2002-2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

Saunois, Marielle↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Stochastic Calculus Approach to Boltzmann Transport

Traditional Monte Carlo methods for particle transport utilize source iteration to express the solution, the flux density, of the transport equation as a Neumann series. Our contribution is to show that the particle paths simulated within source iteration are associated with the adjoint flux density and the adjoint particle paths are associated with the flux density. Here, we make our assertion rigorous through the use of stochastic calculus by representing the particle path used in source iteration as a solution to a stochastic differential equation (SDE). The solution to the adjoint Boltzmann equation is then expressed in terms of the same SDE, and the solution to the Boltzmann equation is expressed in terms of the SDE associated with the adjoint particle process. An important consequence is that the particle paths used within source iteration simultaneously provide Monte Carlo samples of the flux density and adjoint flux density in the detector and source regions, respectively. The significant practical implication is that particle trajectories can be reused to obtain both forward and adjoint quantities of interest. To the best our knowledge, the reuse of entire particles paths has not appeared in the literature. Monte Carlo simulations are presented to support the reuse of the particle paths.

Boltzmann transport↗
DOE OSTI2024

Detection and Quantitation of Hydrogen Emissions Role and Status of Detection Technology

Hydrogen is a critical strategy to decarbonize energy and manufacturing industries. Hydrogen is nontoxic and can be handled safely, but potential for secondary greenhouse impacts. Hydrogen releases arise from a variety of mechanisms (process, design features, "leaks") that contribute to total hydrogen releases. Detection methodologies will be critical to detect and quantify hydrogen emissions. Detection is to be integrated with advanced analytics (AI) and behavior modelling to effectively identify, quantify, and source locate hydrogen releases. Modelling of emissions will contribute to facility safety and reliability. DOE is committed to develop the tools to model and mitigate the impact of hydrogen releases which include: Support modeling to elucidate released hydrogen degradation; Support the development of tools for emissions quantitation; and Support engineering advancements to minimize hydrogen losses along the value chain (including process, design features, and leaks).

detection↗
NASA NTRS2008

Long-term Satellite Observations of Asian Dust Storm: Source, Pathway, and Interannual Variability

Among the many components that contribute to air pollution, airborne mineral dust plays an important role due to its biogeochemical impact on the ecosystem and its radiative-forcing effect on the climate system. In East Asia, dust storms frequently accompany the cold and dry air masses that occur as part of springtime cold front systems. Outbreaks of Asian dust storms occur often in the arid and semi-arid areas of northwestern China -about 1.6x10(exp 6) square kilometers including the Gobi and Taklimakan deserts- with continuous expanding of spatial coverage. These airborne dust particles, originating in desert areas far from polluted regions, interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols emitted from Chinese megacities during their transport over the mainland. Adding the intricate effects of clouds and marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from their sources. Furthermore, these aerosols, once generated over the source regions, can be transported out of the boundary layer into the free troposphere and can travel thousands of kilometers across the Pacific into the United States and beyond. In this paper, we will demonstrate the capability of a new satellite algorithm to retrieve aerosol properties (e.g., optical thickness, single scattering albedo) over bright-reflecting surfaces such as urban areas and deserts. Such retrievals have been difficult to perform using previously available algorithms that use wavelengths from the mid-visible to the near IR because they have trouble separating the aerosol signal from the contribution due to the bright surface reflectance. This new algorithm, called Deep Blue, utilizes blue-wavelength measurements from instruments such as SeaWiFS and MODIS to infer the properties of aerosols, since the surface reflectance over land in the blue part of the spectrum is much lower than for longer wavelength channels. Reasonable agreements have been achieved between Deep Blue retrievals of aerosol optical thickness and those directly from AERONET sunphotometers over desert and semi-desert regions. New Deep Blue products will allow scientists to determine quantitatively the aerosol properties near sources using high spatial resolution measurements from SeaWiFS and MODIS-like instruments. Long-term satellite measurements (1998 - 2007) from SeaWiFS will be utilized to investigate the interannual variability of source, pathway, and dust loading associated with the Asian dust storm outbreaks. In addition, monthly averaged aerosol optical thickness during the springtime from SeaWiFS will also be compared with the MODIS Deep Blue products.

Hsu, N. Christina↗
NASA NTRS1996

Endogenous Synthesis of Prebiotic Organic Molecules

The necessary condition for the synthesis of organic compounds on the primitive earth is the presence of reducing conditions. This means an atmosphere of CH4, CO, or CO2 + H2. The atmospheric nitrogen can be N2 with a trace of NH3, but NH4(+) is needed in the ocean at least for amino acid synthesis. Many attempts have been made to use CO2 + H2O atmospheres for prebiotic synthesis, but these give at best extremely low yields of organic compounds, except in the presence of H2. Even strong reducing agents such as FeS + H2S or the mineral assemblages of the submarine vents fail to give significant yields of organic compounds with CO2. There appears to be a high kinetic barrier to the non-biological reduction of CO2 at low temperatures using geological reducing agents. The most abundant source of energy for prebiotic synthesis is ultraviolet light followed by electric discharges, with electric discharges being more efficient, although it is not clear which was the important energy source. Photochemical process would also make significant contributions. In an atmosphere Of CO2, N2, and H2O with no H2, the production rates of HCN and H2CO would be very low, 0.001 or less than that of a relatively reducing atmosphere. The concentration of organic compounds under these non-reducing conditions would be so low that there is doubt whether the concentration mechanism would be adequate for further steps toward the origin of life. A number of workers have calculated the influx of comets and meteorites on the primitive earth as a source of organic compounds. We conclude that while some organic material was added to the earth from comets and meteorites the amount available from these sources at a given time was at best only a few percent of that from earth bases syntheses under reducing conditions.

Miller, Stanley L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A bloom of a single bacterium shapes the microbiome during outdoor diatom cultivation collapse

Algae-dominated ecosystems are fundamentally influenced by their microbiome. We lack information on the identity and function of bacteria that specialize in consuming algal-derived dissolved organic matter in high algal density ecosystems such as outdoor algal ponds used for biofuel production. Here, we describe the metagenomic and metaproteomic signatures of a single bacterial strain that bloomed during a population-wide crash of the diatom, Phaeodactylum tricornutum, grown in outdoor ponds. 16S rRNA gene data indicated that a single Kordia sp. strain (family Flavobacteriaceae) contributed up to 93% of the bacterial community during P. tricornutum demise. Kordia sp. expressed proteins linked to microbial antagonism and biopolymer breakdown, which likely contributed to its dominance over other microbial taxa during diatom demise. Analysis of accompanying downstream microbiota (primarily of the Rhodobacteraceae family) provided evidence that cross-feeding may be a pathway supporting microbial diversity during diatom demise. In situ and laboratory data with a different strain suggested that Kordia was a primary degrader of biopolymers during algal demise, and co-occurring Rhodobacteraceae exploited degradation molecules for carbon. An analysis of 30 Rhodobacteraceae metagenome assembled genomes suggested that algal pond Rhodobacteraceae commonly harbored pathways to use diverse carbon and energy sources, including carbon monoxide, which may have contributed to the prevalence of this taxonomic group within the ponds. These observations further constrain the roles of functionally distinct heterotrophic bacteria in algal microbiomes, demonstrating how a single dominant bacterium, specialized in processing senescing or dead algal biomass, shapes the microbial community of outdoor algal biofuel ponds.

Kordia↗
DOE OSTI2019

US Contributions to the Athena Wide Field Imager

The world's premier X-ray astronomical observatories, Chandra and XMM-Newton, have been operating for about 20 years. The next flagship X-ray observatory launched will be ESA's Athena mission. We discuss planned US contributions to the Athena Wide Field Imager instrument, which encompass transient source detection, background characterization and reduction, and detector electronics design and testing, in addition to scientific contributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2019

US Contributions to the Athena Wide Field Imager

The world’s premier X-ray astronomical observatories, Chandra and XMM-Newton, have been operating for about 20 years. The next flagship X-ray observatory launched will be ESA’s Athena mission. We discuss planned US contributions to the Athena Wide Field Imager instrument, which encompass transient source detection, background characterization and reduction, and detector electronics design and testing, in addition to scientific contributions.

David N. Burrows↗
NASA NTRS2014

Analyzing Source Apportioned Methane in Northern California During DISCOVER-AQ-CA Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH4) emissions and atmospheric concentrations in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH4 emissions were 5.30 Gg/day (Gg 1.0 109 grams) (equating to 1.9 103 Gg/yr) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes 30 of total emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH4 concentrations over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH4 concentrations in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) -5 and linear regression slope 0.25). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when hot spots of local emission sources were measured and atmospheric CH4 concentrations reached values 3.0 parts per million (model NMB -10). Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH4 emissions in California and further the understanding of the physical processes controlling them.

Methane↗
NASA NTRS1997

The historical contribution of solid rocket motors to the one centimeter debris population

The measured small particle population in earth orbit contains cm-sized objects that are not accounted for by breakup fragments. It was proposed that slag ejection during solid rocket motor burn is a contributor to this population. The direct evidence for such slag ejection follows from: observations of the exhausts of vehicles in flight, and engineering data from static firings. A source model is presented to account for the contribution of slag expulsion from solid rocket motors to the debris population. The mass and velocity distribution of the slag effluents are taken into account and used as a source term in the debris environment model. The model is based on the available observation data and on models for slag development and ejection.

Jackson, Albert↗
NASA NTRS1998

NO(x) Concentrations in the Upper Troposphere as a Result of Lightning

Upper tropospheric NO(x) controls, in part, the distribution of ozone in this greenhouse-sensitive region of the atmosphere. Many factors control NO(x) in this region. As a result it is difficult to assess uncertainties in anthropogenic perturbations to NO from aircraft, for example, without understanding the role of the other major NO(x) sources in the upper troposphere. These include in situ sources (lightning, aircraft), convection from the surface (biomass burning, fossil fuels, soils), stratospheric intrusions, and photochemical recycling from HNO3. This work examines the separate contribution to upper tropospheric "primary" NO(x) from each source category and uses two different chemical transport models (CTMS) to represent a range of possible atmospheric transport. Because aircraft emissions are tied to particular pressure altitudes, it is important to understand whether those emissions are placed in the model stratosphere or troposphere and to assess whether the models can adequately differentiate stratospheric air from tropospheric air. We examine these issues by defining a point-by-point "tracer tropopause" in order to differentiate stratosphere from troposphere in terms of NO(x) perturbations. Both models predict similar zonal average peak enhancements of primary NO(x) due to aircraft (approx. = 10-20 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) in both January and July); however, the placement of this peak is primarily in a region of large stratospheric influence in one model and centered near the level evaluated as the tracer tropopause in the second. Below the tracer tropopause, both models show negligible NO(x) derived directly from the stratospheric source. Also, they predict a typically low background of 1 - 20 pptv NO(x) when tropospheric HNO3 is constrained to be 100 pptv of HNO3. The two models calculate large differences in the total background NO(x) (defined as the source of NO(x) from lightning + stratosphere + surface + HNO3) when using identical loss frequencies for NO(x). This difference is primarily due to differing treatments of vertical transport. An improved diagnosis of this transport that is relevant to NO(x) requires either measurements of a surface-based tracer with a substantially shorter lifetime than Rn-222 or diagnosis and mapping of tracer correlations with different source signatures. Because of differences in transport by the two models we cannot constrain the source of NO(x) from lightning through comparison of average model concentrations with observations of NO(x).

Penner, Joyce E.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Reconstructing Emission from Pre-Reionization Sources with Cosmic Infrared Background Fluctuation Measurements by the JWST

We present new methodology to use cosmic infrared background (CIB) fluctuations to probe sources at 10 less than or approx. equal to z less than or approx. equal to 30 from a James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) NIRCam configuration that will isolate known galaxies to 28 AB mag at 0.55 m. At present significant mutually consistent source-subtracted CIB fluctuations have been identified in the Spitzer and AKARI data at 25 m, but we demonstrate internal inconsistencies at shorter wavelengths in the recent CIBER data. We evaluate CIB contributions from remaining galaxies and show that the bulk of the high-z sources will be in the confusion noise of the NIRCam beam, requiring CIB studies. The accurate measurement of the angular spectrum of the fluctuations and probing the dependence of its clustering component on the remaining shot noise power would discriminate between the various currently proposed models for their origin and probe the flux distribution of its sources. We show that the contribution to CIB fluctuations from remaining galaxies is large at visible wavelengths for the current instruments precluding probing the putative Lyman-break of the CIB fluctuations. We demonstrate that with the proposed JWST configuration such measurements will enable probing the Lyman-break. We develop a Lyman-break tomography method to use the NIRCam wavelength coverage to identify or constrain, via the adjacent two-band subtraction, the history of emissions over 10 less than or approx. equal to z less than or approx. equal to 30 as the universe comes out of the Dark Ages. We apply the proposed tomography to the current SpitzerIRAC measurements at 3.6 and 4.5 m, to find that it already leads to interestingly low upper limit on emissions at z greater than or approx. equal to 30.

NIRCam beam↗
DOE OSTI2026

Examining Aerosol Vertical Transport and Removal during Deep Convective Events

Atmospheric aerosols affect the global energy budget by scattering and absorbing sunlight (direct effects) and by changing the microphysical structure, lifetime, and coverage of clouds (indirect effects). Globally, the free troposphere is a major source of nucleation- and Aitken-mode aerosols due to the enhanced new particle formation rates at high altitudes. Recent studies have shown deep convective systems are capable of transporting these small aerosols from the free troposphere to the boundary layer by strong convective downdrafts and weaker downward motions in the stratiform regions. These vertically transported aerosols can grow into cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and play a significant role in the global climate. During the deep convective processes, existing accumulation-mode aerosols that act as coagulation sinks of smaller particles are also removed by wet scavenging. Compared to the vertical transport of these particles by entrainment mixing, which is slower but more prevalent, the deep convective downdraft processes may be more rapid and efficient in the vertical transport of aerosols. However, most of the current climate models do not include this mechanism as a source of CCN, mainly because the frequency of deep convective events varies significantly with geographic location and thus their contributions to CCN are unpredictable. We target this critical gap in understanding the vertical transport and removal of aerosols by deep convections. We proposed to analyze a multi-year, multi-site measurement record available from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) ARM program, including the observations from the 2014/15 Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field campaign, the 2017/18 Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign, the 2018/19 Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign, the 2021/22 Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) field campaign, and the long-term measurements collected at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory, where deep convective clouds were frequently observed. This project is aimed at the following three objectives: (1) Gaining a detailed and quantitative understanding of the aerosols transported by a convective downdraft and their evolution in the atmosphere; (2) Examining the wet scavenging mechanisms and efficiencies of aerosols at altitudes of deep convective systems based on ground and aircraft measurements; (3) Evaluating the contribution of deep convective systems to CCN as both a source and a sink of atmospheric aerosols and its seasonal variabilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

GCAM v4.3 SSP-RCP-GCM Output Products

Supplemental dataset to: Graham N.T., M.I. Hejazi, M. Chen, E. Davies, J.A. Edmonds, S.H. Kim, and S. Turner, et al. 2020. "Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 1:Article No. 014007. PNNL-SA-151297. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b This analysis makes deterministic classifications of how, when water resources are limited and constrained, the human and climate systems interact. The relative effects of both systems on water scarcity are quantified at global and basin scales across 15 global futures that include five different socioeconomic conditions (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) and four different climatic conditions (the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). These 15 scenarios are used to first analyze a 'Human Alone' component by isolating the human impact on future scarcity. This is accomplished by holding all climate variables to their 2005 levels while altering socioeconomic growth and technological change. General circulation model (GCM) derived climate impacts for five models are applied to establish 75 'Human and Climate' scenarios which allows for the quantification of climate impacts. Climatic impacts to water supply, agricultural productivity and change, hydropower availability, and building energy demands are applied from 5 different bias-corrected GCMs to make a suite of 75 climate runs. By subtracting the human derived impacts from the 'Human Alone' scenarios, from the 'Human and Climate' scenarios the climate impact is isolated. First, the drivers of future water scarcity are evaluated by isolating the impacts that both humans and climate have while accounting for feedbacks between humans, energy, and land. Secondly, the simultaneous impacts that human and climate systems have on water scarcity are analyzed by determining whether each system is increasing or decreasing scarcity in all global water basins. Below we describe the GCAM model, the scenario components, climate derived impacts, and the calculations of scarcity changes and attribution. This study uses the global change assessment model (GCAM), with inclusions of water constraints to both renewable and nonrenewable sources of water, to investigate the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity regionally and globally under a wide range of scenarios. GCAM links socioeconomics, the energy system, land-use change, climate, and the water sector. GCAM is a market-equilibrium model that allows for prices to be adjusted within each time step to ensure that the supply and demand of goods and services remains equilibrated at each time step allowing for simultaneous market clearing across sectors. This study accounts for a limited supply of water by employing cost resource curves across all 235 basins that follow a logit formulation to determine the share of each water source (renewable surface water, nonrenewable groundwater, and desalinated water) needed to meet the water demands within all basins. As depletion of various water sources increases the extraction price increases, which leads to compounding price increases on the goods and services that require higher-priced water sources.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2009

On the Nature of the First Galaxies Selected at 350 Micrometers

We present constraints on the nature of the first galaxies selected at 350 micrometers. The sample includes galaxies discovered in the deepest blank-field survey at 350 micrometers (in the Bo6tes Deep Field) and also later serendipitous detections in the Lockman Hole. In determining multiwavelength identifications, the 350 lam position and map resolution of the second generation Submillimeter High Angular Resolution Camera are critical, especially in the cases where multiple radio sources exist and the 24 micrometer counterparts are unresolved. Spectral energy distribution templates are fitted to identified counterparts, and the sample is found to comprise IR-luminous galaxies at 1 < z < 3 predominantly powered by star formation. The first spectrum of a 350 micrometer selected galaxy provides an additional confirmation, showing prominent dust grain features typically associated with star-forming galaxies. Compared to submillimeter galaxies selected at 850 and 1100 micrometers, galaxies selected at 350 micrometers have a similar range of far-infrared color temperatures. However, no 350 micrometer selected sources are reliably detected at 850 or 1100 micrometers. Galaxies in our sample with redshifts 1 < z < 2 show a tight correlation between the far- and mid-infrared flux densities, but galaxies at higher redshifts show a large dispersion in their mid- to far-infrared colors. This implies a limit to which the mid-IR emission traces the far-IR emission in star-forming galaxies. The 350 micrometer flux densities (15 < S(sub 350) < 40 mJy) place these objects near the Herschel/SPIRE 350 micrometer confusion threshold, with the lower limit on the star formation rate density suggesting the bulk of the 350 micrometers contribution will come from less luminous infrared sources and normal galaxies. Therefore, the nature of the dominant source of the 350 micrometers background-star-forming galaxies in the epoch of peak star formation in the universe-could be more effectively probed using ground-based instruments with their angular resolution and sensitivity offering significant advantages over space-based imaging. Key words: galaxies: high-redshift galaxies: starburst infrared: galaxies submillimeter

Khan, Sophia A.↗