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DOE OSTI2017

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Linking repeat lidar with Landsat products for large scale quantification of fire-induced permafrost thaw settlement in interior Alaska

The permafrost–fire–climate system has been a hotspot in research for decades under a warming climate scenario. Surface vegetation plays a dominant role in protecting permafrost from summer warmth, thus, any alteration of vegetation structure, particularly following severe wildfires, can cause dramatic top–down thaw. A challenge in understanding this is to quantify fire-induced thaw settlement at large scales (>1000 km 2 ). In this study, we explored the potential of using Landsat products for a large-scale estimation of fire-induced thaw settlement across a well-studied area representative of ice-rich lowland permafrost in interior Alaska. Six large fires have affected ~1250 km 2 of the area since 2000. We first identified the linkage of fires, burn severity, and land cover response, and then developed an object-based machine learning ensemble approach to estimate fire-induced thaw settlement by relating airborne repeat lidar data to Landsat products. The model delineated thaw settlement patterns across the six fire scars and explained ~65% of the variance in lidar-detected elevation change. Our results indicate a combined application of airborne repeat lidar and Landsat products is a valuable tool for large scale quantification of fire-induced thaw settlement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers

Fire is a powerful ecological and evolutionary force that regulates organismal traits, population sizes, species interactions, community composition, carbon and nutrient cycling and ecosystem function. It also presents a rapidly growing societal challenge, due to both increasingly destructive wildfires and fire exclusion in fire–dependent ecosystems. As an ecological process, fire integrates complex feedbacks among biological, social and geophysical processes, requiring coordination across several fields and scales of study. Here, we describe the diversity of ways in which fire operates as a fundamental ecological and evolutionary process on Earth. We explore research priorities in six categories of fire ecology: (a) characteristics of fire regimes, (b) changing fire regimes, (c) fire effects on above–ground ecology, (d) fire effects on below–ground ecology, (e) fire behaviour and (f) fire ecology modelling. We identify three emergent themes: the need to study fire across temporal scales, to assess the mechanisms underlying a variety of ecological feedbacks involving fire and to improve representation of fire in a range of modelling contexts. As fire regimes and our relationships with fire continue to change, prioritizing these research areas will facilitate understanding of the ecological causes and consequences of future fires and rethinking fire management alternatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Diversity of genomic adaptations to the post‐fire environment in Pezizales fungi points to crosstalk between charcoal tolerance and sexual development

Summary Wildfires drastically impact the soil environment, altering the soil organic matter, forming pyrolyzed compounds, and markedly reducing the diversity of microorganisms. Pyrophilous fungi, especially the species from the orders Pezizales and Agaricales, are fire‐responsive fungal colonizers of post‐fire soil that have historically been found fruiting on burned soil and thus may encode mechanisms of processing these compounds in their genomes. Pyrophilous fungi are diverse. In this work, we explored this diversity and sequenced six new genomes of pyrophilous Pezizales fungi isolated after the 2013 Rim Fire near Yosemite Park in California, USA: Pyronema domesticum , Pyronema omphalodes , Tricharina praecox , Geopyxis carbonaria , Morchella snyderi , and Peziza echinospora . A comparative genomics analysis revealed the enrichment of gene families involved in responses to stress and the degradation of pyrolyzed organic matter. In addition, we found that both protein sequence lengths and G + C content in the third base of codons (GC3) in pyrophilous fungi fall between those in mesophilic/nonpyrophilous and thermophilic fungi. A comparative transcriptome analysis of P. domesticum under two conditions – growing on charcoal, and during sexual development – identified modules of genes that are co‐expressed in the charcoal and light‐induced sexual development conditions. In addition, environmental sensors such as transcription factors STE12, LreA, LreB, VosA, and EsdC were upregulated in the charcoal condition. Taken together, these results highlight genomic adaptations of pyrophilous fungi and indicate a potential connection between charcoal tolerance and fruiting body formation in P. domesticum .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climate Dynamics Preceding Summer Forest Fires in California and the Extreme Case of 2018

Recent record-breaking wildfire seasons in California prompt an investigation into the climate patterns that typically precede anomalous summer burned forest area. Using burned-area data from the U.S. Forest Service’s Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) product and climate data from the fifth major global reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) over 1984–2018, relationships between the interannual variability of antecedent climate anomalies and July California burned area are spatially and temporally characterized. Lag correlations show that antecedent high vapor pressure deficit (VPD), high temperatures, frequent extreme high temperature days, low precipitation, high subsidence, high geopotential height, low soil moisture, and low snowpack and snowmelt anomalies all correlate significantly with July California burned area as far back as the January before the fire season. Seasonal regression maps indicate that a global midlatitude atmospheric wave train in late winter is associated with anomalous July California burned area. July 2018, a year with especially high burned area, was to some extent consistent with the general patterns revealed by the regressions: low winter precipitation and high spring VPD preceded the extreme burned area. However, geopotential height anomaly patterns were distinct from those in the regressions. Extreme July heat likely contributed to the extent of the fires ignited that month, even though extreme July temperatures do not historically significantly correlate with July burned area. While the 2018 antecedent climate conditions were typical of a high-burned-area year, they were not extreme, demonstrating the likely limits of statistical prediction of extreme fire seasons and the need for individual case studies of extreme years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Trace Metal Inventories and Lead Isotopic Composition Chronicle a Forest Fire’s Remobilization of Industrial Contaminants Deposited in the Angeles National Forest

The amounts of labile trace metals: [Co] (3 to 11 mg g -1 ), [Cu] (15 to 69 mg g -1 ), [Ni] (6 to 15 mg g -1 ), [Pb] (7 to 42 mg g -1 ), and [Zn] (65 to 500 mg g -1 ) in ash collected from the 2012 Williams Fire in Los Angeles, California attest to the role of fires in remobilizing industrial metals deposited in forests. These remobilized trace metals may be dispersed by winds, increasing human exposures, and they may be deposited in water bodies, increasing exposures in aquatic ecosystems. Correlations between the concentrations of these trace metals, normalized to Fe, in ash from the fire suggest that Co, Cu, and Ni in most of those samples were predominantly from natural sources, whereas Pb and Zn were enriched in some ash samples. The predominantly anthropogenic source of excess Pb in the ash was further demonstrated by its isotopic ratios ( 208 Pb/ 207 Pb: 206 Pb/ 207 Pb) that fell between those of natural Pb and leaded gasoline sold in California during the previous century. These analyses substantiate current human and environmental health concerns with the pyrogenic remobilization of toxic metals, which are compounded by projections of increases in the intensity and frequency of wildfires associated with climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune - Forest Burn Data

Critical military training and testing on lands along the nation’s coastal and estuarine shorelines are increasingly placed at risk because of encroachment pressures in surrounding areas, impairments due to other anthropogenic disturbances, and changes in climate and sea level. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) intends to enhance and sustain its training and testing assets and also optimize its stewardship of natural resources through the development and application of an ecosystem-based management approach on DoD installations. To accomplish this goal, particularly for installations in estuarine/coastal environments, the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) launched the Defense Coastal/Estuarine Research Program (DCERP) as a 10-year effort at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (MCBCL) in North Carolina. The results of the second 5 years of the program (DCERP2) are presented in the DCERP2 Final Report.There were four overarching objectives of DCERP2. The first objective was to understand the effects of climate change impacts, including warming temperatures, variability in the hydrological cycle, storm events, and sea level rise on the coastal ecosystems at MCBCL from observations and measurements made over the 10-year program. The second objective was to understand the carbon cycle of the coastal and terrestrial ecosystems at MCBCL through a highly integrated sampling program. The third objective was to develop models, tools, and indicators to evaluate current and projected future ecosystem state changes and translate scientific findings into actionable information for installation managers. The last objective was to recommend adaptive management strategies to sustain ecosystem natural resources within the context of an active military installation.This data package contains burn and wildfire history and time enabled service data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Post-fire time series of sensor and geochemistry sample data from surface water, groundwater, precipitation, soil, and vegetation across Oak Creek watershed, Washington

This dataset supports a broader study examining wildfire impacts on hydrologic connectivity across 5 sites within the Oak Creek watershed and the resulting biogeochemical impacts. Stream sites were selected using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) hydrologic model to identify locations with varying groundwater contributions and hydrologic responses across different burn severity scenarios. The Retreat Fire burned from July 23 to August 2 in 2024, affecting the five study sites at varying burn severities. Each site is equipped with YSI EXO2 sondes logging sub-hourly throughout the year, and grab samples are collected approximately every six weeks. YSI sondes are used to measure temporally resolved proxies for groundwater inputs (specific conductivity) and organic matter (fluorescent dissolved organic matter; fDOM) along with basic water quality and depth. Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, and precipitation are analyzed for water stable isotopes and conductivity to understand endmembers for hydrologic mixing Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, soil water, and litter/vegetation/soil leachates are analyzed for organic matter composition measured by Fourier-Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry (FTICR-MS) to understand organic matter dynamics. Game camera photos are provided in a separate data package available at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018598. Future versions of this dataset will include time series data from YSI EXO2 sondes (fDOM, dissolved oxygen, temperature, depth, specific conductance, turbidity, pH), BaroTROLL sensors (air temperature and barometric pressure), rain gauges (precipitation), and data from the soil and vegetation samples. Because this study is ongoing, this data package will be updated regularly to include newly collected data and the additional data types. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) a folder of field photos; (2) a folder of surface water sample data; (3) a folder of raw Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data; (4) a data checks report; (5) file-level metadata; (6) data dictionary; (7) field metadata; (8) readme; (9) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; and (10) field protocols. The sample data subfolder contains (1) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages; (2) total dissolved nitrogen data and averages; (3) stable water isotopes and averages; (4) methods codes; (5) FTICR-MS methods; and (15) a subfolder of 9.4 Tesla (9.4T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains the processed data and three subfolders, one containing the .xml files, one containing the water CoreMS output files, and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS). All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .d, .html, .Rmd, .py, .cal, .json, .jpg, .jpeg, .png, .mov, or .mp4.

Biogeochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Post-fire time series photos from five sites across the Oak Creek watershed, Washington

Burn severity↗

DOE OSTI2018

Understanding the Evolution of Biomass Burning Particles in the Atmosphere: Analysis of BBOP Data, Laboratory Experiments, and Model Integration

Submicron particles in the atmosphere can have a profound influence on Earth’s climate [Stocker et al., 2013]. Particulate matter (PM) affects climate via both direct effects (scattering or absorption of radiation) and indirect effects (changes to the formation and properties of clouds). Biomass burning (BB) is the largest global source of submicron, carbonaceous particles [Wiedinmyer et al., 2011]. Field campaigns have shown that BB aerosol (BBA) can evolve through rapid transformations and removal processes in the atmosphere, with changing radiative and hygroscopic properties, but these processes are not well characterized. Better understanding of the evolution of biomass burning PM in the atmosphere is critical for improving the accuracy of regional to global climate models. In order to address uncertainties in the initial physical, chemical and radiative forcing of BBA and the evolution of these parameters, DOE ASR conducted an airborne field campaign, the Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP), during the summer and fall of 2013 to make measurements in the plumes of northwest U.S. wildfires and southeast U.S. agricultural burns. BBOP provided unique, extremely detailed trace gas and particle measurements in fresh biomass burning plumes and captured large, rapid downwind transformations within a few hours of the sources. These fast changes in properties have also been observed in laboratory-generated BB smoke in a smog chamber, but in general the controlling factors and most likely outcomes in the real atmosphere are still not clear. The goals of this project were to 1) analyze and interpret the BBOP measurements in detail, 2) conduct laboratory experiments to explore the formation of tar balls, and 3) to incorporate our findings into improved models of biomass burning emissions and aging. This research focuses on understanding the chemical, physical and optical properties and transformations of BB emissions in the near-field within hours downwind of the burn and on a more regional scale and, in turn, how BB emissions relate to climate forcing. Analysis of the BBOP data paid particular attention to relating SOA production, changes in size distribution, and mixing state to the environmental conditions (gas-phase precursors, relative humidity, radiation, oxidants, NO x , etc.). This project included subcontracts and unfunded collaborations with many of the key participants in the BBOP campaign. Professor Robert Yokelson at the University of Montana is an expert on biomass burning fuels and emissions and participated in BBOP as an unfunded collaborator. Professor Peter Buseck at Arizona State University collected particle samples during BBOP and analyzed some of them as part of this project. Unfunded collaborators include Dr. Arthur Sedlacek, III at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Dr. Rahul Zaveri at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) who were both principal investigators in the BBOP campaign, focusing on measurements and modeling, respectively. We are also working closely with Prof. Qi Zhang at UC Davis to coordinate analysis of BBOP flight data and data from the Mt. Bachelor Observatory (MBO), and with Dr. Kouji Adachi at the Meteorological Institute (Japan) to analyze laboratory-generated tar ball samples.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Modeling the dynamical coupling between fires and atmospheric hydrodynamics [Slides]

The role of physic process-based modeling in wildfire behavior research : Fire experiments and field observations; Process-based fire behavior modeling; Models can help test our understanding; Models can assist in the development of hypotheses, which can be tested with observations; Models can allow scenario and sensitivity explorations when observations are difficult; It is important to keep in mind the assumptions/approximations of model formulations (only partial physics).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Karuk Climate Resiliency Plan

Statewide, California is the hottest and driest since modern record keeping has taken place. Among the most urgent of the local dimensions of climate change in Karuk Ancestral Territory is the increased frequency of high-severity fire. The 2016 Karuk Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA) outlines how these influences have created landscape conditions that hold the potential to be devastating in the face of future high-severity fire events. The project followed the format of our CVA and furthers information garnered to accomplish two primary objectives. The Karuk Tribe developed a Climate Adaptation Plan to address established vulnerabilities to Tribal traditional foods and cultural use species, Tribal program infrastructure, and Tribal management authority and political status resulting from changing conditions with a focus on increased frequency of high-intensity wildfire events within the Karuk Ancestral Territory.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Systemic immunological responses are dependent on sex and ovarian hormone presence following acute inhaled woodsmoke exposure

Rural regions of the western United States have experienced a noticeable surge in both the frequency and severity of acute wildfire events, which brings significant challenges to both public safety and environmental conservation efforts, with impacts felt globally. Identifying factors contributing to immune dysfunction, including endocrinological phenotypes, is essential to understanding how hormones may influence toxicological susceptibility.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Conductor Testing – 824 kcmil 26/19 ACCR 3M

This report discusses the advanced conductor testing of 3M's ACCR conductor. The testing included exposure to wildfire temperatures and subsequent ultimate tensile strength tests.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mechanical Solution for Existing Conductors

The rapid growth in energy demand, driven by advancements in AI technology, renewable energy integration, and increased industrial activity, highlights the need for innovative solutions to improve the resiliency and efficiency of the power grid. This report details the fire testing of GridWrap’s Composite WiRe Wrap, to evaluate the wrap's ability to enhance conductor performance under wildfire-simulated conditions. Conductors were prepared and tested in a controlled environment at 400°C for 18 minutes, during which sag and temperature data were recorded. The results demonstrated that the unwrapped conductor sagged 3/16ths of an inch, while the WiRe Wrapped conductor sagged only 1/16th of an inch under identical conditions, indicating a significant improvement in mechanical performance. This project, conducted as part of a collaborative effort between BEA (Idaho National Laboratory’s managing contractor) and GridWrap, Inc., demonstrates the potential of grid-enhancing technologies like WiRe Wrap to reduce sag, increase grid resiliency, and support the future energy landscape. By validating the performance of such technologies in real-world scenarios, this work provides critical insights for industry adoption, benefiting both grid operators and U.S. taxpayers through improved reliability, reduced emissions, and enhanced energy delivery.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Conductor Testing – 995.0 kcmil Southwire ACCS/TW/C7

This is the results of advanced conductor testing in report form. This report demonstrates the characteristics of the Southwire C7 TP conductor when exposed to wildfire conditions.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

TES: Modelling Microbes to Predict Post-Fire Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest across Burn Severities (Exploratory Proposal)

Wildfires in boreal ecosystems represent a globally significant ecological process that is expected to be sensitive to changing climate as well as forest management strategies, but is currently insufficiently understood and represented in models. We sought to determine whether linking belowground microbial community composition, size, and activity to aboveground properties of burn severity and plant community composition (upland jack pine and upland spruce) would allow us to better model post-fire soil CO 2 fluxes using the Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) model. We used an integrated modelling experimental approach, with mechanistic laboratory experiments designed to inform models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Conductor Testing – 1431 kcmil Prysmian ACSS with E3X

Advanced conductors represent a significant evolution in transmission line technology. These conductors utilize innovative materials, such as composite cores, ultra-high-strength steel, and heat-dissipating coatings, to offer improved performance compared to traditional Aluminum Conductor Steel Reinforced (ACSR) designs. However, the deployment of these technologies has so far been limited. As each conductor comes with nuances in test setup and specifications, a standard test is not readily available to apply to all advanced conductors. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Advanced Conductor Testing project, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) and Office of Electricity (OE), focuses on developing and implementing testing protocols and plans for advanced conductor technologies to assess and demonstrate physical performance under varying operational conditions, including extreme environmental stressors such as wildfires. This report contains the fire testing results of a 1431 kcmil Prysmian ACSS with E3X conductor.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗