Results for “comparative modeling” — Page 48

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Implementation of a Hybrid Edge Node-Centroid Node Approach for the Generation of Reduced Thermal Models

Reduced thermal models are often required for delivery to organizations that manage models at the highest levels of assembly. The effort to generate/verify these models against their detailed counterparts is a challenge not yet conclusively solved. Higher level organizations often place a limit on the node count for delivered models, assuming smaller models result in faster computation. The burden of producing and verifying the accuracy of reduced models is primarily on the lower-level organizations, which consumes resources to produce these models. Limiting the number of allowable nodes may prevent users from taking full advantage of software capabilities that allow for faster generation of models, such as finite elements, which require more nodes than centroid based models. A methodology using Thermal Desktop was described in 2010 using: (1) finite elements and edge nodes for the conduction matrix, (2) centroid nodes for capacitance and radiative computations, and (3) the super network feature to produce a conduction matrix based only on the centroid nodes. While the methodology was clear, the implementation would have had to be done manually; with the inclusion of the OpenTD Application Programming Interface, this methodology can now be implemented programmatically and be a viable approach for the generation of reduced models. The approach was implemented at NASA-Goddard for the Capture-Containment-and-Return-System (CCRS) payload, resulting in the TCYEE tool. CCRS requires delivery with node limitations through the European Space Agency to its contractors. TCYEE generated the reduced model for delivery and the predictions compared favorably to the detailed model. Furthermore, TCYEE is being explored for potential use on the Roman Space Telescope (RST) for the generation of reduced models for delivery to the launch provider, which also has node limit requirements. This paper describes the methodology, implementation, and the performance of reduced models compared to their detailed counterparts.

Computer Programming and Software↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing Turbulence at a Forest Edge: Comparing Sub-Filter Scale Turbulence Models in Simulations of Flow over a Canopy

In wildfires, atmospheric turbulence plays a major role in the transfer of turbulent kinetic energy. Understanding how turbulence feeds back into a dynamical system is important, down to the varying small scales of fuel structures (i.e. pine needles, grass). Large eddy simulations (LES) are a common way of numerically representing turbulence. The Smagorinsky model (1963) serves as one of the most studied sub-grid scale representations in LES. In this investigation, the Smagorinsky model was implemented in HIGRAD/FIRETEC, LANL’s coupled fire-atmosphere model. This study was motivated by the need to quantitatively investigate the vorticity budget equation in HIGRAD/FIRETEC. The Smagorinsky turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) was compared to FIRETEC’s 1.5-order TKE eddy-viscosity subgrid-scale model, known as the Linn turbulence model. This was done in simulations of flow over flat terrain with a homogeneous, cuboidal canopy in the center of the domain. Examinations of the modeled vertical TKE profile and turbulent statistics at the leading edge, and throughout the canopy, show that the Smagorinsky model provides comparable results to that of the original closure model posed in FIRETEC.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Implementation of the Baldwin-Barth turbulence model into the ZETA code and its diagnosis

The Baldwin-Barth turbulence model was implemented into Zeta, a time-accurate, zonal, integro-differential code for incompressible laminar and turbulent flows. The implementation procedure is patterned after the model subroutine in ARC2D. The results of ZETA with the Baldwin-Barth turbulence model were compared with experimental data, with ZETA using Baldwin-Lomax model, and with ARC2D using the Baldwin-Barth model. The Baldwin-Barth model subroutine was tested by inputting an ARC2D velocity solution of an NACA-0012 airfoil at R(sub e) = 3.9 x 10(exp 6) and alpha = 5 deg. The resultant turbulent viscosity and Reynolds stresses compared favorably with the original data. For the same grid having grid points inside the laminar sublayer, which is necessary due to the one-equation nature of the model, ZETA however predicts early separation. It was found that the current ZETA has problem with such a fine grid. Further work is in progress to solve this problem.

Low, Scott L.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Space Communications Responsive to Events Across Missions (SCREAM): An Investigation of Network Solutions for Transient Science Space Systems

Space Communications Responsive to Events Across Missions (SCREAM): An Investigation of Network Solutions for Transient Science Space Systems The National Academies have prioritized the pursuit of new scientific discoveries using diverse and temporally coordinated measurements from multiple ground and space-based observatories. Networked communications can enable such measurements by connecting individual observatories and allowing them to operate as a cohesive and purposefully designed system. Timely data flows across terrestrial and space communications networks are required to observe transient scientific events and processes. Currently, communications to space-based observatories experience large latencies due to manual service reservation and scheduling procedures, intermittent signal coverage, and network capacity constraints. If space communications network latencies could be reduced, new discoveries about dynamic scientific processes could be realized. However, science mission and network planners lack a systematic framework for defining, quantifying and evaluating timely space data flow implementation options for transient scientific observation scenarios involving multiple ground and space-based observatories. This dissertation presents a model-based systems engineering approach to investigate and develop network solutions to meet the needs of transient science space systems. First, a systematic investigation of the current transient science operations of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) space data network and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory resulted in a formal architectural model for transient science space systems. Two methods individual missions may use to achieve timely network services were defined, quantitatively modeled, and experimentally compared. Next, the architectural model was extended to describe two alternative ways to achieve timely and autonomous space data flows to multiple space-based observatories within the context of a purposefully designed transient science observation scenario. A quantitative multipoint space data flow modeling method based in queueing theory was defined. General system suitability metrics for timeliness, throughput, and capacity were specified to support the evaluation of alternative network data flow implementations. A hypothetical design study was performed to demonstrate the multipoint data flow modeling method and to evaluate alternative data flow implementations using TDRS. The merits of a proposed future TDRS broadcast service to implement multipoint data flows were quantified and compared to expected outcomes using the as-built TDRS network. Then, the architectural model was extended to incorporate commercial network service providers. Quantitative models for Globalstar and Iridium short messaging data services were developed based on publicly available sources. Financial cost was added to the set of system suitability metrics. The hypothetical design study was extended to compare the relative suitability of the as-built TDRS network with the commercial Globalstar and Iridium networks. Finally, results from this research are being applied by NASA missions and network planners. In 2020, Swift implemented the first automated command pipeline, increasing its expected gravitational wave follow-up detection rate by greater than 400%. Current NASA technology initiatives informed by this research will enable future space-based observatories to become interoperable sensing devices connected by a diverse ecosystem of network service providers.

Christopher J. Roberts↗

NASA NTRS2023

Robustness of Observing System Simulation Experiments

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are used to investigate the potential performance of proposed new instruments on numerical weather prediction (NWP). As OSSEs involve a framework in which the atmosphere and observations are all completely simulated, it is necessary to perform validation of the OSSE to ensure that it is sufficiently realistic to provide useful experimental results. A common issue that affects the forecast skill and observation impacts is the tendency of OSSEs to have insufficient model error compared to NWP in the real world. In this work, two versions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) NWP OSSE framework are compared, with the newer framework having more simulated forecast model error than the older framework due to changes to the NWP system. The performance of the updated OSSE is validated against corresponding behavior of the same NWP system in the real world in terms of the simulated observations, the analysis increments, forecast error, and observation impacts. OSSE results of analysis and forecast impacts for three proposed new observation systems are also compared between the older and newer frameworks to evaluate the robustness of the OSSE experiments and the role of model error in observation impacts. These three new instruments are the Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) hyperspectral infrared sounder (GXS), the Midwave Infrared Sounding of Temperature and humidity in a Constellation for Winds (MISTiC Winds) atmospheric motion vectors, and additional Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultations (GNSS-RO).

Observing System Simulation Experiments↗

DOE OSTI2020

Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models

Results from the fully and biogeochemically coupled simulations in which CO 2 increases at a rate of 1 % yr –1 (1pctCO2) from its preindustrial value are analyzed to quantify the magnitude of carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters which measure the response of ocean and terrestrial carbon pools to changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration and the resulting change in global climate, respectively. The results are based on 11 comprehensive Earth system models from the most recent (sixth) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and compared with eight models from the fifth CMIP (CMIP5). The strength of the carbon–concentration feedback is of comparable magnitudes over land (mean ± standard deviation = 0.97 ± 0.40 PgC ppm –1 ) and ocean (0.79 ± 0.07 PgC ppm –1 ), while the carbon–climate feedback over land (–45.1 ± 50.6 PgC °C –1 ) is about 3 times larger than over ocean (–17.2 ± 5.0 PgC °C –1 ). The strength of both feedbacks is an order of magnitude more uncertain over land than over ocean as has been seen in existing studies. These values and their spread from 11 CMIP6 models have not changed significantly compared to CMIP5 models. The absolute values of feedback parameters are lower for land with models that include a representation of nitrogen cycle. The transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the 11 CMIP6 models considered here is 1.77 ± 0.37 °C EgC –1 and is similar to that found in CMIP5 models (1.63 ± 0.48 °C EgC –1 ) but with somewhat reduced model spread. The expressions for feedback parameters based on the fully and biogeochemically coupled configurations of the 1pctCO2 simulation are simplified when the small temperature change in the biogeochemically coupled simulation is ignored. Decomposition of the terms of these simplified expressions for the feedback parameters is used to gain insight into the reasons for differing responses among ocean and land carbon cycle models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1988

Electromagnetic wave scattering at near-grazing incidence from a gently undulating, rough surface

Models to estimate the reflection coefficient of a statistically rough surface, for example the works of Beckmann, Smith, and Vesecky are discussed. Bistatic radar experiments carried out during the Apollo 16 mission provide a data set with which to compare theoretical models and experimental data. These bistatic S-band radar experiments provide experimental estimates of the Moon's bistatic, forward scatter, reflection coefficient for grazing angles of 2.5 to 78 deg. Theoretical expressions for the reflection coefficient are developed for comparison with these experimental data. At grazing angles below 10 deg the models of Smith and Vesecky compare favorably with the data. Beckmann's model falls significantly more rapidly with decreasing grazing angle than does the data.

Vesecky, J. F.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reliability estimation of an advanced nuclear fuel using coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel is a robust nuclear fuel and determining its reliability is critical for the success of advanced nuclear technologies. However, TRISO failure probabilities are small and the associated computational models are expensive. Here we used coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation to estimate the failure probabilities of TRISO fuels using several 1D and 2D models. With multifidelity modeling, we replaced expensive high-fidelity (HF) model evaluations with information fusion from two low-fidelity (LF) models. For the 1D TRISO models, we considered three multifidelity modeling strategies: only Kriging, Kriging LF prediction plus Kriging correction, and deep neural network (DNN) LF prediction plus Kriging correction. While the results across these multifidelity modeling strategies compared satisfactorily, strategies employing information fusion from two LF models called the HF model least often. Next, for the 2D TRISO model, we considered two multifidelity modeling strategies: DNN LF prediction plus Kriging correction (data-driven) and 1D TRISO LF prediction plus Kriging correction (physics-based). The physics-based strategy, as expected, consistently required the fewest calls to the HF model. However, the data-driven strategy had a lower overall simulation time since the DNN predictions are instantaneous, and the 1D TRISO model requires a non-negligible simulation time.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Minimal production of prompt gravitational waves during reheating

The inflationary reheating phase begins when accelerated expansion ends. As all Standard Model particles are coupled to gravity, gravitational interactions will lead to particle production. This includes the thermal bath, dark matter, and gravitational radiation. Here, we compute the spectrum of gravitational waves from the inflaton condensate during the initial phase of reheating. As particular examples of inflation, we consider the Starobinsky model and T models, all of which are in good phenomenological agreement with cosmic microwave background anisotropy measurements. The T models are distinguished by the shape of the potential about its minimum and can be approximated by V ∼ ϕ k , where ϕ is the inflaton. Interestingly, the shape of the gravitational wave spectrum (when observed) can be used to distinguish among the models considered. As we show, the Starobinsky model and T models with k = 2 , provide very different spectra when compared to models with k = 4 or k > 4 . Observation of multiple harmonics in the spectrum can be interpreted as a direct measurement of the inflaton mass. Furthermore, the cutoff in frequency can be used to determine the reheating temperature. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulation and Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes modeling of a three-component Rayleigh-Taylor mixing problem with thermonuclear burn

Rayleigh-Taylor mixing in the presence of a third component with intermediate density is investigated through three-dimensional large-eddy simulation (LES) with a high-order compact finite-difference code. Two configurations are considered: (1) a symmetric configuration in which the Atwood number between the heavy and intermediate components matches the Atwood number between the intermediate and light components and (2) an asymmetric configuration in which the Atwood number between the heavy and intermediate components is an order of magnitude greater than the Atwood number between the intermediate and light components. Mass fraction covariances are extracted, and proposed Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) closures for density-specific-volume and density-mass-fraction covariances are evaluated in an a priori fashion. Additionally, a multicomponent extension of the k - Φ - L - a - V RANS model [Morgan, Phys. Rev. E 104, 015107 (2021)] is presented which includes model equations for the upper-triangular elements of the mass fraction covariance matrix. This model, referred to as the k - Φ - L - a - C model, is compared against results from LES and against other RANS models. Profiles of average mass fraction, mass-fraction covariance, and density-specific-volume covariance obtained with the k - Φ - L - a - C model are found to agree well with LES data. Finally, the impact of three-component turbulent mixing on average reaction rate is investigated in both premixed and nonpremixed cases by heating the mixing layer and allowing it to undergo thermonuclear (TN) burn. A closure model for average reaction rate is proposed for use with the k - Φ - L - a - C model, and when this model is applied, improved agreement is obtained between LES and RANS in total TN neutron production.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Potential and Actual Evapotranspiration Fluxes Using Six Meteorological Data-Based Approaches for a Range of Climate and Land Cover Types

Evapotranspiration is the major component of the water cycle, so a correct estimate of this variable is fundamental. The purpose of the present research is to assess the monthly scale accuracy of six meteorological data-based models in the prediction of evapotranspiration (ET) losses by comparing the modelled fluxes with the observed ones from eight sites equipped with eddy covariance stations which differ in terms of vegetation and climate type. Three potential ET methods (Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor, and Blaney-Criddle models) and three actual ET models (the Advection-Aridity, the Granger and Gray, and the Antecedent Precipitation Index method) have been proposed. The findings show that the models performances differ from site to site and they depend on the vegetation and climate characteristics. Indeed, they show a wide range of error values ranging from 0.18 to 2.78. It has been not possible to identify a single model able to outperform the others in each biome, but in general, the Advection-Aridity approach seems to be the most accurate, especially when the model calibration in not carried out. It returns very low error values close to 0.38. When the calibration procedure is performed, the most accurate model is the Granger and Gray approach with minimum error of 0.13 but, at the same time, it is the most impacted by this process, and therefore, in a context of data scarcity, it results the less recommended for ET prediction. The performances of the investigated ET approaches have been furthermore tested in case of lack of measured data of soil heat fluxes and net radiation considering using empirical relationships based on meteorological data to derive these variables. Results show that, the use of empirical formulas to derive ET estimates increases the errors up to 200% with the consequent loss of model accuracy.

net radiation↗

DOE OSTI2022

MERIT-Plus Dataset: Delineation of endorheic basins in 5 and 15 min upscaled river networks

Endorheic drainage basins, those inland basins not connected directly to ocean, are essential for hydrological modeling of global and regional water balances, land surface water storage, gravity anomalies, sea level rise, etc. Within many hydrological model frameworks, river basins are defined by digital river networks through their flow direction and connectivity datasets. Here we present an improvement to gridded flow direction data and its derivatives produced from upscaled global 5 and 15 arc minute MERIT networks. We explicitly label endorheic and exorheic drainage basins and alter the delineation of endorheic basins by merging small inland watersheds to the adjacent host basins. The resulting datasets have a significantly reduced number of endorheic basins while preserving the total land portion of those basins since most of the merged catchments were inside other larger endorheic areas. We developed and present here the endorheic basin delineation method. This method performs an analysis of the contributing river and basin geometry relative to the location of the flow end point (i.e. potential endorheic lake), proximity of the latter to the drainage basin boundary and the elevation difference between the basin's lowest point and potential spillover location at the basin boundary. The new digital river network was validated using the University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model by comparing the water balance of endorheic inland depressions with modeled accumulation of water in their inland lakes based on the observed historical climate drivers used by WBM.

Earth Systems↗

DOE OSTI2023

MERIT-Plus Dataset: Delineation of endorheic basins in 5 and 15 min upscaled river networks

Endorheic drainage basins, those inland basins not connected directly to ocean, are essential for hydrological modeling of global and regional water balances, land surface water storage, gravity anomalies, sea level rise, etc. Within many hydrological model frameworks, river basins are defined by digital river networks through their flow direction and connectivity datasets. Here we present an improvement to gridded flow direction data and its derivatives produced from upscaled global 5 and 15 arc minute MERIT networks. We explicitly label endorheic and exorheic drainage basins and alter the delineation of endorheic basins by merging small inland watersheds to the adjacent host basins. The resulting datasets have a significantly reduced number of endorheic basins while preserving the total land portion of those basins since most of the merged catchments were inside other larger endorheic areas. We developed and present here the endorheic basin delineation method. This method performs an analysis of the contributing river and basin geometry relative to the location of the flow end point (i.e. potential endorheic lake), proximity of the latter to the drainage basin boundary and the elevation difference between the basin's lowest point and potential spillover location at the basin boundary. The new digital river network was validated using the University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model by comparing the water balance of endorheic inland depressions with modeled accumulation of water in their inland lakes based on the observed historical climate drivers used by WBM.

Earth Systems↗

DOE OSTI2023

MERIT-Plus Dataset: Delineation of endorheic basins in 5 and 15 min upscaled river networks

Endorheic drainage basins, those inland basins not connected directly to ocean, are essential for hydrological modeling of global and regional water balances, land surface water storage, gravity anomalies, sea level rise, etc. Within many hydrological model frameworks, river basins are defined by digital river networks through their flow direction and connectivity datasets. Here we present an improvement to gridded flow direction data and its derivatives produced from upscaled global 5 and 15 arc minute MERIT networks. We explicitly label endorheic and exorheic drainage basins and alter the delineation of endorheic basins by merging small inland watersheds to the adjacent host basins. The resulting datasets have a significantly reduced number of endorheic basins while preserving the total land portion of those basins since most of the merged catchments were inside other larger endorheic areas. We developed and present here the endorheic basin delineation method. This method performs an analysis of the contributing river and basin geometry relative to the location of the flow end point (i.e. potential endorheic lake), proximity of the latter to the drainage basin boundary and the elevation difference between the basin's lowest point and potential spillover location at the basin boundary. The new digital river network was validated using the University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model by comparing the water balance of endorheic inland depressions with modeled accumulation of water in their inland lakes based on the observed historical climate drivers used by WBM.

Earth Systems↗

DOE OSTI2023

MERIT-Plus Dataset: Delineation of endorheic basins in 5 and 15 min upscaled river networks

Endorheic drainage basins, those inland basins not connected directly to ocean, are essential for hydrological modeling of global and regional water balances, land surface water storage, gravity anomalies, sea level rise, etc. Within many hydrological model frameworks, river basins are defined by digital river networks through their flow direction and connectivity datasets. Here we present an improvement to gridded flow direction data and its derivatives produced from upscaled global 5 and 15 arc minute MERIT networks. We explicitly label endorheic and exorheic drainage basins and alter the delineation of endorheic basins by merging small inland watersheds to the adjacent host basins. The resulting datasets have a significantly reduced number of endorheic basins while preserving the total land portion of those basins since most of the merged catchments were inside other larger endorheic areas. We developed and present here the endorheic basin delineation method. This method performs an analysis of the contributing river and basin geometry relative to the location of the flow end point (i.e. potential endorheic lake), proximity of the latter to the drainage basin boundary and the elevation difference between the basin's lowest point and potential spillover location at the basin boundary. The new digital river network was validated using the University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model by comparing the water balance of endorheic inland depressions with modeled accumulation of water in their inland lakes based on the observed historical climate drivers used by WBM.

Earth Systems↗

NASA NTRS1974

Confrontation of Lemaitre models and the cosmological constant with observations

The history of the cosmological constant and the Lemaitre models is reviewed briefly. Using recent cosmological observations, it is found that the cosmological constant if nonzero must be in absolute value less than 2 times 10 to the negative 56th power per sq cm. The predictions of the Lemaitre models are compared with modern observations. It is shown that Lemaitre models without evolution fail to reproduce the observed radio source counts. The existence of quasars with large redshift (z greater than 2.5) is shown to be strong evidence against the Lemaitre models.

Petrosian, V.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Theoretical aspects of undercooling, nucleation and growth of metals in space

A mathematical model which can predict solid material properties from known melt properties and solidification environment is being developed to aid in selecting materials systems which could benefit scientifically or commercially from experimentation in space. In its present, preliminary form, the model calculates grain size and dendrite morphology from the undercooling parameter and the parameter which characterizes heterogeneous nucleation. Calculations with the present model are compared to experimental data, and needed improvements in the model are described. Some theoretical problems relating to undercooling and environmentally-induced solute segregation are also discussed.

Miller, R. I.↗

NASA NTRS1976

A heuristic finite-state model of the human driver in a car-following situation

An approach to modeling human driver behavior in single-lane car following which is based on a finite-state decision structure is considered. The specific strategy at each point in the decision tree was obtained from observations of typical driver behavior. The synthesis of the decision logic is based on position and velocity thresholds and four states defined by regions in the phase plane. The performance of the resulting assumed intuitively logical model was compared with actual freeway data. The match of the model to the data was optimized by adapting the model parameters using a modified PARTAN algorithm. The results indicate that the heuristic model behavior matches actual car-following performance better during deceleration and constant velocity phases than during acceleration periods.

Burnham, G. O.↗