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DOE OSTI2019

Typical occupancy profiles and behaviors in residential buildings in the United States

The energy performance of a residential building is highly dependent on occupant's presence or non-presence in a building and their interactions with energy-consuming appliances. Typical occupancy schedules for residential buildings must be defined for applications such as building energy modeling as well as for assessing energy savings associated with the use of occupancy sensing technologies and occupancy-dependent controls. Currently, commonly used simulation programs assume a typical occupancy schedule, however, there is significant opportunity for improvement to these schedules as this is generally based on engineering judgement. This research uses 12 years of the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) data to develop typical occupancy schedules for a range of household types and occupant age ranges. This is compared to currently utilized residential occupancy schedules. In many cases the developed schedules exhibit similar patterns, however, differences are also found to be as high as 41% for certain periods of time. For occupancy sensing applications, the spatial-temporal distribution of occupants in residential buildings is also evaluated. These locations vary based on temporal factors as well as demographic factors such as age and number of occupants. Finally, the results of this research work towards improved occupancy schedule development can benefit both industry professionals and researchers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wattile: Probabilistic Deep Learning-based Forecasting of Building Energy Consumption [SWR-20-94]

Accurate energy forecasting is becoming critical due to many reasons: i ) optimal distributed energy resources operations and dispatch, ii) fault detection and diagnostics, and iii) meeting operational energy efficiency targets. Wattile uses deep learning (DL) for the building's short-term load forecasting application. Two specific types of neural networks called, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) models are used to make predictions. Forecasting models are trained using online historical weather and occupancy indicator data streams from the Intelligent Campus Program's data acquisition systems at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for main meters and sub-meters of multiple building types. These models use probabilistic methods to provide quantile-based forecasts in addition to nominal conditional median predictions of electricity consumption.

Frank, Stephen↗

DOE OSTI2018

Wasatch Solar Project Final Report

The Wasatch Solar Project was a collaborative effort to conduct stakeholder engagement and provide technical assistance and analysis to support solar market development in Utah. The Wasatch Solar Project addressed four topic areas: 1) technical analysis to inform an assessment of the net benefits and costs of solar in Utah; 2) development of a 10-Year Solar Deployment Plan to create a clear path for continued solar deployment in Utah; 3) demonstration of the costs and resiliency benefits of solar and storage for resiliency at emergency response facilities or public facilities; and 4) technical assistance to create a replicable Commercial Property Assessed Clean Energy (C-PACE) financing program in Utah. The Wasatch Solar Project identified that new technical new technical challenges arise as nascent markets grow to higher penetrations of solar, requiring more detailed interconnection standards and improved efficiency in the interconnection process; that it is difficult for entities served by utilities that do not collect hourly usage data to assess the economic value of solar and storage; that despite significant resiliency benefits, the high cost of battery storage limits its adoption at healthcare and emergency response facilities in states like Utah that have low electricity rates; that administration of C-PACE financing at a local jurisdictional level can be complex, cumbersome, and a barrier to widespread utilization; and that investments in distributed generation can result in long-term savings for utility customers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reassessing the Market—Computation Interface to Enhance Grid Security and Efficiency

The goal of this project is to reconsider core market and reliability processes that can potentially yield to transformative advances in power grid security, reliability, and efficiency. Current electric power market designs are strongly a function of computing capabilities and limitations that were available in the mid-to-late 1990s, circa deregulation. This includes constructs such as: (1) a 2-tiered day-ahead/real-time market construct; and (2) linearized (“DC”) real power flow approximations in dispatch and pricing. At that time, state-of-the-art computational capabilities could at the limit address deterministic mixed-integer programming formulations of unit commitment (UC) and linear programming formulations of economic dispatch (ED) at limited fidelity and scale. Such constraints forced limited look-ahead time-horizons, crude approximations of AC power flow physics and operations, and artificial partitioning between day-ahead markets, hour(s)-ahead reliability processes, and real-time markets. Consequently, these limitations have resulted in limited security and reliability with increasing out-of-market payments, particularly as uncertainty associated with renewables and distributed energy resources grows.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Planning Amidst Uncertainty: Identifying Core CCS Infrastructure Robust to Storage Uncertainty

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a critical technology for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but its large-scale deployment is complicated by uncertainties in geological storage performance. These uncertainties pose significant financial and operational risks, as underperforming storage sites can lead to costly infrastructure modifications, inefficient pipeline routing, and economic shortfalls. To address this challenge, we propose a novel optimization workflow that is based on mixed-integer linear programming and explicitly integrates probabilistic modeling of storage uncertainty into CCS infrastructure design. This workflow generates multiple infrastructure scenarios by sampling storage capacity distributions, optimally solving each scenario using a mixed-integer linear programming model, and aggregating results into a heatmap to identify core infrastructure components that have a low likelihood of underperforming. A risk index parameter is introduced to balance trade-offs between cost, CO2 processing capacity, and risk of underperformance, allowing stakeholders to quantify and mitigate uncertainty in CCS planning. Applying this workflow to a CCS dataset from the US Department of Energy’s Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership project reveals key insights into infrastructure resilience. Reducing the risk index from 15% to 0% is observed to lead to an 83.7% reduction in CO2 processing capacity and a 77.1% decrease in project profit, quantifying the trade-off between risk tolerance and project performance. Furthermore, our results highlight critical breakpoints, where small adjustments in the risk index produce disproportionate shifts in infrastructure performance, providing actionable guidance for decision-makers. Unlike prior approaches that aimed to cheaply repair underperforming infrastructure, our workflow constructs robust CCS networks from the ground up, ensuring cost-effective infrastructure under storage uncertainty. These findings demonstrate the practical relevance of incorporating uncertainty-aware optimization into CCS planning, equipping decision-makers with a tool to make informed project planning decisions.

Olson, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS1975

Wall mounted heat exchanger characterization

Analytical models are presented for describing the heat and mass transfer and the energy distribution in the contents of a cryogenic propellant tank, under varying gravity levels. These models are used to analytically evaluate the effectiveness of a wall heat exchanger as a means of controlling the pressure in the tank during flight and during fill operations. Pressure and temperature histories are presented for tanks varying in size from 4 to 22.5 feet in diameter and gravity levels from 0-1. Results from the subscale test program, utilizing both non-cryogenic and cryogenic fluid, designed to evaluate a tank wall heat exchanger are described and compared with the analytical models. Both the model and test results indicate that a passive tank wall heat exchanger can effectively control tank pressure. However, the weight of such a system is considerably higher than that of an active mixer system.

Bullard, B. R.↗

NASA NTRS1974

The MIST /MIUS Integration and Subsystems Test/ laboratory - A testbed for the MIUS /Modular Integrated Utility System/ program

The MIUS (Modular Integrated Utility System) concept is to be an energy-conserving, economically feasible, integrated community utility system to provide five necessary services: electricity generation, space heating and air conditioning, solid waste processing, liquid waste processing, and residential water purification. The MIST (MIUS Integration and Subsystem Test) integrated system testbed constructed at the Johnson Space Center in Houston includes subsystems for power generation, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), wastewater management, solid waste management, and control and monitoring. The key design issues under study include thermal integration and distribution techniques, thermal storage, integration of subsystems controls and displays, incinerator performance, effluent characteristics, and odor control.

Beckham, W. S., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Calculation of design load for the MOD-5A 7.3 mW wind turbine system

Design loads are presented for the General Electric MOD-SA wind turbine. The MOD-SA system consists of a 400 ft. diameter, upwind, two-bladed, teetered rotor connected to a 7.3 mW variable-speed generator. Fatigue loads are specified in the form of histograms for the 30 year life of the machine, while limit (or maximum) loads have been derived from transient dynamic analysis at critical operating conditions. Loads prediction was accomplished using state of the art aeroelastic analyses developed at General Electric. Features of the primary predictive tool - the Transient Rotor Analysis Code (TRAC) are described in the paper. Key to the load predictions are the following wind models: (1) yearly mean wind distribution; (2) mean wind variations during operation; (3) number of start/shutdown cycles; (4) spatially large gusts; and (5) spatially small gusts (local turbulence). The methods used to develop statistical distributions from load calculations represent an extension of procedures used in past wind programs and are believed to be a significant contribution to Wind Turbine Generator analysis. Test/theory correlations are presented to demonstrate code load predictive capability and to support the wind models used in the analysis. In addition MOD-5A loads are compared with those of existing machines. The MOD-5A design was performed by the General Electric Company, Advanced Energy Program Department, under Contract DEN3-153 with NASA Lewis Research Center and sponsored by the Department of Energy.

Mirandy, L.↗

NASA NTRS1997

A Performance Comparison of Pulsed Plasma Thruster Electrode Configurations

Pulsed plasma thrusters are currently planned on two small satellite missions and proposed for a third. In these missions, the pulsed plasma thruster's unique characteristics will be used variously to provide propulsive attitude control, orbit raising, translation, and precision positioning. Pulsed plasma thrusters are attractive for small satellite applications because they are essentially stand alone devices which eliminate the need for toxic and/or distributed propellant systems. Pulsed plasma thrusters also operate at low power and over a wide power range without loss of performance. As part of the technical development required for the noted missions, an experimental program to optimize performance with respect to electrode configuration was undertaken. One of the planned missions will use pulsed plasma thrusters for orbit raising requiring relatively high thrust and previously tested configurations did not provide this. Also, higher capacitor energies were tested than previously tried for this mission. Multiple configurations were tested and a final configuration was selected for flight hardware development. This paper describes the results of the electrode optimization in detail.

Arrington, Lynn A.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Frequency Agile Solar Radiotelescope

The Frequency Agile Solar Radiotelescope (FASR) has been strongly endorsed as a top community priority by both Astronomy & Astrophysics Decadal Surveys and Solar & Space Physics Decadal Surveys in the past two decades. Although it was developed to a high state of readiness in previous years (it went through a CATE analysis and was declared “doable now”), the NSF has not had the funding mechanisms in place to fund this mid-scale program. Now it does, and the community must seize this opportunity to modernize the FASR design and build the instrument in this decade. The concept and its science potential have been abundantly proven by the pathfinding Expanded Owens Valley Solar Array (EOVSA), which has demonstrated a small subset of FASR’s key capabilities such as dynamically measuring the evolving magnetic field in eruptive flares, the temporal and spatial evolution of the electron energy distribution in flares, and the extensive coupling among dynamic components (flare, flux rope, current sheet). The FASR concept, which is orders of magnitude more powerful than EOVSA, is low-risk and extremely high reward, exploiting a fundamentally new research domain in solar and space weather physics. Utilizing dynamic broadband imaging spectropolarimetry at radio wavelengths, with its unique sensitivity to coronal magnetic fields and to both thermal plasma and nonthermal electrons from large flares to extremely weak transients, the ground-based FASR will make synoptic measurements of the coronal magnetic field and map emissions from the chromosphere to the middle corona in 3D. With its high spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution, as well as its superior imaging fidelity and dynamic range, FASR is poised to provide a system-wide perspective on myriad coupled phenomena. FASR will be a highly complementary and synergistic component of solar and heliospheric observing capabilities that is critically needed to support the next generation of solar science.

Dale E. Gary↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (MEME-CCS)

This effort employs and adapts a rigorous multiscale electricity modeling platform at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and negative emissions technologies (NET) from the ARPA-E FLECCS program. NREL's modeling platform includes the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model, which projects future electricity generation mixes at sub-state-level resolution that are downscaled to the unit-level to enable hourly, zonal or nodal electricity production cost modeling in the PLEXOS model. The ReEDS-PLEXOS modeling suite is well-established for examining electric sector futures with high renewable energy penetrations, energy storage, electrification, and distributed generation. The key advancement proposed herein utilizes collaboration with CCS experts at the University of Wyoming (U.WY) and the FLECCS technology development teams to create innovative methods for representing CCS and NET in the ReEDS and PLEXOS models. Expanded technology options and new operational parameterizations are integrated into these models to allow an unprecedented combination of scope and resolution for exploring the future of CCS and NET. The resulting capabilities permit wide-ranging scenario analysis to assess CCS and NET deployment under alternative scenarios of CO2 prices and competitiveness of flexible CCS and NET technologies. We demonstrate sample deployment and operational outcomes to show how these models are being used to assess the future potential for FLECCS technologies and their impacts on the U.S. electricity system. These products will help an emerging CCS/NET industry in the United States by providing economics-driven guidance to technology developers while informing policy and investment decisions in the public and private sectors.

capacity expansion↗

DOE OSTI2017

Nuclear Computational Low Energy Initiative (NUCLEI)

This is the final report for University of Washington for the NUCLEI SciDAC-3. The NUCLEI -project, as defined by the scope of work, will develop, implement and run codes for large-scale computations of many topics in low-energy nuclear physics. Physics to be studied include the properties of nuclei and nuclear decays, nuclear structure and reactions, and the properties of nuclear matter. The computational techniques to be used include Quantum Monte Carlo, Configuration Interaction, Coupled Cluster, and Density Functional methods. The research program will emphasize areas of high interest to current and possible future DOE nuclear physics facilities, including ATLAS and FRIB (nuclear structure and reactions, and nuclear astrophysics), TJNAF (neutron distributions in nuclei, few body systems, and electroweak processes), NIF (thermonuclear reactions), MAJORANA and FNPB (neutrino-less double-beta decay and physics beyond the Standard Model), and LANSCE (fission studies).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Contributions to the NUCLEI Project for Years 1-5(6)

The NUCLEI project, as defined by the scope of work, will develop, implement and run codes for large-scale computations of many topics in low-energy nuclear physics. Physics to be studied include the properties of nuclei and nuclear decays, nuclear structure and reactions, and the properties of nuclear matter. The computational techniques to be used include Quantum Monte Carlo, Configuration Interaction, Coupled Cluster, and Density Functional methods. The research program will emphasize areas of high interest to current and possible future DOE nuclear physics facilities, including ATLAS and FRIB (nuclear structure and reactions, and nuclear astrophysics), TJNAF (neutron distributions in nuclei, few body systems, and electroweak processes), NIF (thermonuclear reactions), MAJORANA and FNPB (neutrinoless double-beta decay and physics beyond the Standard Model), and LANSCE (fission studies).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The High-energy Radiation Environment around a 10 Gyr M Dwarf: Habitable at Last?

Recent work has demonstrated that high levels of X-ray and UV activity on young M dwarfs may drive rapid atmospheric escape on temperate, terrestrial planets orbiting within the habitable zone. However, secondary atmospheres on planets orbiting older, less active M dwarfs may be stable and present more promising candidates for biomarker searches. In order to evaluate the potential habitability of Earth-like planets around old, inactive M dwarfs, we present new Hubble Space Telescope and Chandra X-ray Observatory observations of Barnard’s Star (GJ 699), a 10 Gyr old M3.5 dwarf, acquired as part of the Mega-MUSCLES program. Despite the old age and long rotation period of Barnard’s Star, we observe two FUV (δ 130 ≈ 5000 s; E 130 ≈ 10 29.5 erg each) and one X-ray (E X ≈ 10 29.2 erg) flares, and we estimate a high-energy flare duty cycle (defined here as the fraction of the time the star is in a flare state) of ~25%. A publicly available 5 Å to 10 μm spectral energy distribution of GJ 699 is created and used to evaluate the atmospheric stability of a hypothetical, unmagnetized terrestrial planet in the habitable zone (r HZ ~ 0.1 au). Both thermal and nonthermal escape modeling indicate (1) the quiescent stellar XUV flux does not lead to strong atmospheric escape: atmospheric heating rates are comparable to periods of high solar activity on modern Earth, and (2) the flare environment could drive the atmosphere into a hydrodynamic loss regime at the observed flare duty cycle: sustained exposure to the flare environment of GJ 699 results in the loss of ≈87 Earth atmospheres Gyr -1 through thermal processes and ≈3 Earth atmospheres Gyr -1 through ion loss processes. These results suggest that if rocky planet atmospheres can survive the initial ~5 Gyr of high stellar activity, or if a second-generation atmosphere can be formed or acquired, the flare duty cycle may be the controlling stellar parameter for the stability of Earth-like atmospheres around old M stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Dark Energy Bedrock All-sky Supernova Program: Cross Calibration, Simulations, and Cosmology Forecasts

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have been essential for probing the nature of dark energy; however, most SN analyses rely on the same low-redshift sample, which may lead to shared systematics. In a companion paper, we introduce the Dark Energy Bedrock All-Sky Supernova (DEBASS) program, which has already collected more than 500 low-redshift SNe Ia on the Dark Energy Camera, and present an initial release of 77 SNe Ia within the Dark Energy Survey (DES) footprint observed between 2021 and 2024. Here, we examine the systematics, including photometric calibration and selection effects. We find agreement at the 10 mmag level among the tertiary standard stars of DEBASS, DES, and Pan-STARRS1. Our simulations reproduce the observed distributions of DEBASS SN light-curve properties, and we measure a bias-corrected Hubble residual scatter of 0.08 mag, which, while small, is found in 10% of our simulations. We compare the DEBASS SN distances to the Foundation sample and find consistency with a median residual offset of 0.016 ± 0.019 mag. Selection effects have negligible impacts on distances, but a different photometric calibration solution shifts the median residual −0.015 ± 0.019 mag, highlighting calibration sensitivity. Using conservative simulations, we forecast that replacing historical low-redshift samples with the full DEBASS sample will improve the statistical uncertainties on dark energy parameters w 0 and w a by 30% and 24%, respectively, enhance the dark energy Figure of Merit by up to 60%, and enable a measurement of fσ 8 at the 25% level.

Acevedo, Maria [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United Sta↗

NASA NTRS2005

Ring Current Dynamic in the Presence of EMIC Waves

The effect of EMIC waves, generated by a positive ion temperature anisotropy on Earth s RC ions is one of the best known examples of wave-particle interaction in the magnetosphere and the most controversial mechanism of RC losses. Under certain conditions, relativistic electrons with energy 21 MeV can be removed from the outer RB by EMIC wave scattering during a magnetic storm much faster than by any other loss mechanisms. That is why the calculation of EMIC waves is a very critical part of the NASA LWS program. The new RC model that we have developed and present for the first time has several new features that we have combine together in a one single model: (a) several lower frequency cold plasma wave modes are taken into account; (b) wave tracing of these wave has been incorporated in the energy EMIC wave equation; (c) no assumptions regarding wave shape spectra have been made; (d) no assumptions regarding the shape of particle distribution have been made to calculate the growth rate; (e) pitch- angle, energy, and mix diffusions are taken into account together for the first time; (f) the exact loss-cone RC analytical solution has been found and coupled with bounce-averaged numerical solution of kinetic equation; (g) LHW are included as an additional factor that contributes to saturation process of EMIC waves; and (h) the hot ions were included in the real part of dielectric permittivity tensor. We compare our theoretical results with the different EMIC waves models as well as RC experimental data.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States

The Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States provides state energy offices, public utility commissions, and partner organizations with a structured framework for integrating cyber-resilient engineering practices into energy planning, grantmaking, interconnection processes, and workforce development. As grid digitalization and the adoption of distributed energy resources accelerate, states face expanding cyber-physical risks that traditional cybersecurity measures alone cannot fully address. CIE offers a proactive, consequence-focused engineering methodology that emphasizes eliminating or mitigating high-impact failure modes through design, physical controls, and operational safeguards. The guide outlines the 12 core CIE principles, demonstrates their application through state-focused use cases—including grant evaluation rubrics, interconnection reviews, allow-list development, and training programs—and provides practical tools such as scoring frameworks, impact assessment methods, and implementation checklists. It also highlights pathways for state–utility collaboration and opportunities for technical assistance from national laboratories. By adopting CIE, states can enhance grid reliability, reduce lifecycle costs, strengthen supply-chain assurance, and foster a security-aware engineering culture that aligns with broader resilience and modernization goals. November 2025

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗