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NASA NTRS2000

On the Origin of Monsoon

It is a long-held fundamental belief that the basic cause of a monsoon is land-sea thermal contrast on the continental scale. Through general circulation model experiments we demonstrate that this belief should be changed. The Asian and Australian summer monsoon circulations are largely intact in an experiment in which Asia, maritime continent, and Australia are replaced by ocean. It is also shown that the change resulting from such replacement is in general due more to the removal of topography than to the removal of land-sea contrast. Therefore, land-sea contrast plays only a minor modifying role in Asian and Australian summer monsoons. This also happens to the Central American summer monsoon. However, the same thing cannot be said of the African and South American summer monsoons. In Asian and Australian winter monsoons land-sea contrast also plays only a minor role. Our interpretation for the origin of monsoon is that the summer monsoon is the result of ITCZ's (intertropical convergence zones) peak being substantially (more than 10 degrees) away from the equator. The origin of the ITCZ has been previously interpreted by Chao. The circulation around thus located ITCZ, previously interpreted by Chao and Chen through the modified Gill solution and briefly described in this paper, explains the monsoon circulation. The longitudinal location of the ITCZs is determined by the distribution of surface conditions. ITCZ's favor locations of higher SST as in western Pacific and Indian Ocean, or tropical landmass, due to land-sea contrast, as in tropical Africa and South America. Thus, the role of landmass in the origin of monsoon can be replaced by ocean of sufficiently high SST. Furthermore, the ITCZ circulation extends into the tropics in the other hemisphere to give rise to the winter monsoon circulation there. Also through the equivalence of land-sea contrast and higher SST, it is argued that the basic monsoon onset mechanism proposed by Chao is valid for all monsoons.

Chao, Winston C.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Sensitivity of Global Modeling Initiative Model Predictions of Antarctic Ozone Recovery to Input Meteorological Fields

We use the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model to simulate the evolution of stratospheric ozone between 1995 and 2030, using boundary conditions consistent with the recent World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. We compare the Antarctic ozone recovery predictions of two simulations, one driven by an annually repeated year of meteorological data from a general circulation model (GCM), the other using a year of output from a data assimilation system (DAS), to examine the sensitivity of Antarctic ozone recovery predictions to the characteristic dynamical differences between GCM- and DAS-generated meteorological data. Although the age of air in the Antarctic lower stratosphere differs by a factor of 2 between the simulations, we find little sensitivity of the 1995-2030 Antarctic ozone recovery between 350 and 650 K to the differing meteorological fields, particularly when the recovery is specified in mixing ratio units. Percent changes are smaller in the DAS-driven simulation compared to the GCM-driven simulation because of a surplus of Antarctic ozone in the DAS-driven simulation which is not consistent with observations. The peak ozone change between 1995 and 2030 in both simulations is approx.20% lower than photochemical expectations, indicating that changes in ozone transport due to changing ozone gradients at 450 K between 1995 and 2030 constitute a small negative feedback. Total winter/spring ozone loss during the base year (1995) of both simulations and the rate of ozone loss during August and September is somewhat weaker than observed. This appears to be due to underestimates of Antarctic Cl(sub y) at the 450 K potential temperature level.

Considine, David B.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Constraining Oceanic Sources and Sinks of CO2 by Inverse Modeling: A First Step Toward Assimilation of In Situ and Remote Data

The primary goal of this collaborative project, lead by Nicholas Gruber at UCLA, is to better quantify the air-sea fluxes of pre-industrial and anthropogenic carbon dioxide CO2 for the global ocean with a newly developed inverse method. The method involves using ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) to characterize the subsurface distribution of tracers injected for different regions of the ocean surface. By linearly combining a series of these basis (or Greens) functions, one should be able to recreate any arbitrary ocean tracer field. In our case, we are using the global database of ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the WOCE/JGOFS global CO2 survey from the 1990s. The observed DIC field has been partitioned into pre-industrial and anthropogenic components using the empirical C* technique. We then solve for an optimal combination of the regional basis functions that best match the two sets observations in a least-squares sense with singular value decomposition. This in turn provides solutions for the regional air-sea CO2 fluxes (pre-industrial and anthropogenic) that are independent of more traditional estimates derived from surface water disequilibria in the partial pressure of CO2 and wind speed gas exchange parameterizations. We are apply the method to a suite of nine different OGCMs to test the robustness of the derived surface fluxes fields to differences in ocean circulation. Together with a collegue Keith Lindsay at NCAR, S. Doney's role in this project was to create the appropriate steady-state and temporally evolving basis functions from the NCAR CSM-1 ocean circulation model. Because of a slow start across the project in defining a common set of experimental protocols, we requested and were given a one year, no cost extension. Both the steady-state and temporally evolving basis functions were delivered to the UCLA group for further analysis. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Doney, Scott↗

NASA NTRS2001

Effect of Aerosols on Cloud Field with Satellite-Derived Data and GCM Simulation

Numerical experiment was performed using an general circulation model (GCM) including aerosol indirect effect into water cloud and the simulated global distribution of cloud droplet radii was compared with the global distribution of cloud effective radii retrieved from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Comparisons of GCM calculation with AVHRR retrieval showed that our GCM generally can simulate the global characteristics of cloud droplet radii such as a land-sea contrast associated with difference of aerosol abundance and coastal region feature due to aerosol injection from adjacent continental area. AVHRR retrieval and GCM simulation, however, are turned out to show disagreement over tropical region. AVHRR retrieval may tend to overestimate droplet radii due to the contamination of signal by drizzles and ice particles, whereas our GCM does not treat aerosol indirect effect in deep convective clouds predominant over tropics. Over equatorial central Pacific, where satellite retrieval may suffer from statistical biases, satellite retrieval and GCM simulation are also found to be different. Keywords: aerosol indirect effect

Suzuki, Kentaroh↗

NASA NTRS2008

To What Extent Can Vegetation Mitigate Greenhouse Warming? A Modeling Approach

Climate models participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report indicate that under a 2xCO2 environment, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We postulate that the increase in precipitation associated with the increase in CO2 is also increasing vegetation density, which may already be feeding back onto climate. Including this feedback in a climate model simulation resulted in precipitation and runoff trends consistent with observations and reduced the warming by 0.6OC overland. This unaccounted for missing water may be linked to about 10% of the missing land carbon sink. A recent compilation of outputs from 19 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) shows projected increases in air temperature, precipitation and river discharge for 24 major rivers in the world in response to doubling CO2 by the end of the century (1). The ensemble mean from these models also indicates that, compared to their respective baselines overland, the global mean of the runoff change would increase faster (8.9% per year) than that of the precipitation (5% per year). We analyze century-scale observed annual runoff time-series (1901-2002) over 9 hydrological units covering large regions of the Eastern United States (Fig.1) compiled by the United States Geological Survey (USGS)(2). These regions were selected because they are the most forested; the least water-limited and are not under extensive irrigation. We compare these time-series to similar time-series of observed annual precipitation anomalies spanning the period 1900-1995 (3). Both time-series exhibit a positive longterm trend (Fig. 2); however, in contrast to the analysis of (I), these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increase is 5.5 % per year, roughly double the rate of runoff increase of 3.1 % per year.

Bounoua, L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

An Extended View of Mars Ozone

We present an ongoing effort to characterize chemistry in Mars' atmosphere in multiple seasons on timescales longer than flight missions through coordinated efforts by GSFC's HIPWAC spectrometer and Mars Express SPICAM, archival measurements, and tests/application of photochemical models. The trace species ozone (O3) is an effective probe of atmospheric chemistry because it is destroyed by chemically active odd hydrogen species (HO(sub x)) that result from water vapor photolysis. Observed ozone abundance on Mars is a critical test for three-dimensional photochemistry coupled general circulation models (GCM) that make specific predictions for the spatial, diurnal, and seasonal behavior of ozone and related chemistry and climatological conditions. Coordinated measurements by HIPWAC and SPICAM quantitatively linked mission data to the 23-year GSFC ozone data record and also revealed unanticipated inter-decadal variability of same-season ozone abundances, a possible indicator of changing cloud activity (heterogeneous sink for HO(sub x)). A detailed study of long-term conditions is critical to characterizing the predictability of Mars' seasonal chemical behavior, particularly in light of the implications of and the lack of explanation for reported methane behavior.

Fast, Kelly↗

NASA NTRS1994

The interpretation of remotely sensed cloud properties from a model paramterization perspective

A study has been made of the relationship between mean cloud radiative properties and cloud fraction in stratocumulus cloud systems. The analysis is of several Land Resources Satellite System (LANDSAT) images and three hourly International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) C-1 data during daylight hours for two grid boxes covering an area typical of a general circulation model (GCM) grid increment. Cloud properties were inferred from the LANDSAT images using two thresholds and several pixel resolutions ranging from roughly 0.0625 km to 8 km. At the finest resolution, the analysis shows that mean cloud optical depth (or liquid water path) increases somewhat with increasing cloud fraction up to 20% cloud coverage. More striking, however, is the lack of correlation between the two quantities for cloud fractions between roughly 0.2 and 0.8. When the scene is essentially overcast, the mean cloud optical tends to be higher. Coarse resolution LANDSAT analysis and the ISCCP 8-km data show lack of correlation between mean cloud optical depth and cloud fraction for coverage less than about 90%. This study shows that there is perhaps a local mean liquid water path (LWP) associated with partly cloudy areas of stratocumulus clouds. A method has been suggested to use this property to construct the cloud fraction paramterization in a GCM when the model computes a grid-box-mean LWP.

HARSHVARDHAN↗

NASA NTRS1980

Some adaptive filtering techniques applied to the passive remote sensing problem

A review is made of recursive statistical regression techniques incorporating past or past and future observations through smoothing and Kalman filtering, respectively; with results for the cases of the Tiros-N/MSU and Nimbus-6/Scams remote sensing satellite experiments. In response to the lack of a satisfactory model for the medium sounded, which is presently a major limitation on retrieval technique performance, a novel, global approach is proposed which casts the retrieval problem into the framework of adaptive filtering. A numerical implementation of such an adaptive system is presented, with a multilayer, semi-spectral general circulation model for the atmosphere being used to fine-tune the sensor as well as the dynamical equations of a Kalman filter. It is shown that the assimilation of radiometric data becomes a straightforward subproblem.

Toldalagi, P. M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Simulation and Analysis of Technology and Operational Procedures to Reduce the Combined Effects of Emissions and Contrails

The development and evaluation of concepts and technology to support future air traffic management systems require a hierarchy of models ranging from real-time simulations to extensive field evaluations. Air traffic simulation models such as Airspace Concept Evaluation System, Center Tracon Automation System, Future Air traffic management Concept Evaluation Tool and others are used to design air traffic systems balancing the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety, meeting future demands for airports and airspace and increase efficiency of traffic flows in the presence of uncertain weather. The impact of aviation emissions and contrails on climate imposes another constraint on the design of aircraft and aviation operations. The understanding of the complex interaction between physical climate system, the carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity can be improved by the development of integrated assessment models that include emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations. The modeling of aircraft emissions and their interaction with each other to change the concentration levels of different gasses in the atmosphere and the resulting impact of the radiative forcing on the equilibrium of the Earth's atmosphere is complex and requires the use of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models together with three-dimensional models of carbon cycle and chemistry of other non-CO2 greenhouse gases. These models are computationally intensive and unsuitable for studies involving the generation of multiple scenarios. Simple emission and climate models, based on the input-output relations of linear systems, capture the fundamental emission to climate impact behavior by careful selection of key variables and their dynamics. The impact of various greenhouse gases depends on the total concentration, effect per unit change in atmospheric concentration and the spatial distribution of the gas. All these quantities are influenced by the lifetime of the gas. The impact of a greenhouse gas depends on the interval of assessment, which may vary from a few decades to a few centuries. Climate metrics are aimed at providing a common scale to compare different greenhouse gases. If the metrics are to be used as a tool in developing and evaluating aviation operations, they should be transparent and easy to apply. Global Warming Potential and Aggregate Global Temperature Potential are some of the commonly used metrics. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability brings together metrics, which are useful in aviation operations together with metrics used in climate studies. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in climate impact. There is considerable uncertainty in our understanding of the radiative forcing associated with emissions and contrails. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails. It can also be used to evaluate the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

impact of aviation on the environment↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mesoscale Convective Systems in DYAMOND Global Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Abstract This study examines the deep convection populations and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) simulated in the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the atmospheric general circulation modeled on non‐hydrostatic domains) winter project. A storm tracking algorithm is applied to six DYAMOND simulations and a global high‐resolution satellite cloud and precipitation data set for comparison. The simulated frequencies of tropical deep convection and organized convective systems vary widely among models and regions, although robust MCSs are generally underestimated. The diurnal cycles of MCS initiation and mature stages are well simulated, but the amplitudes are exaggerated over land. Most models capture the observed MCS lifetime, cloud shield area, rainfall volume and movement speed. However, cloud‐top height and convective rainfall intensity are consistently overestimated, and stratiform rainfall area and amount are consistently underestimated. Possible causes for the model differences compared to observations and implications for future model developments are discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2001

Evaluation of Stratospheric Transport in New 3D Models Using the Global Modeling Initiative Grading Criteria

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Team developed objective criteria for model evaluation in order to identify the best representation of the stratosphere. This work created a method to quantitatively and objectively discriminate between different models. In the original GMI study, 3 different meteorological data sets were used to run an offline chemistry and transport model (CTM). Observationally-based grading criteria were derived and applied to these simulations and various aspects of stratospheric transport were evaluated; grades were assigned. Here we report on the application of the GMI evaluation criteria to CTM simulations integrated with a new assimilated wind data set and a new general circulation model (GCM) wind data set. The Finite Volume Community Climate Model (FV-CCM) is a new GCM developed at Goddard which uses the NCAR CCM physics and the Lin and Rood advection scheme. The FV-Data Assimilation System (FV-DAS) is a new data assimilation system which uses the FV-CCM as its core model. One year CTM simulations of 2.5 degrees longitude by 2 degrees latitude resolution were run for each wind data set. We present the evaluation of temperature and annual transport cycles in the lower and middle stratosphere in the two new CTM simulations. We include an evaluation of high latitude transport which was not part of the original GMI criteria. Grades for the new simulations will be compared with those assigned during the original GMT evaluations and areas of improvement will be identified.

Strahan, Susan E.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Using High Frequency Passive Microwave, A-train, and TRMM Data to Evaluate Hydrometer Structure in the NASA GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System

Validating water vapor and prognostic condensate in global models remains a challenging research task. Model parameterizations are still subject to a large number of tunable parameters; furthermore, accurate and representative in situ observations are very sparse, and satellite observations historically have significant quantitative uncertainties. Progress on improving cloud / hydrometeor fields in models stands to benefit greatly from the growing inventory ofA-Train data sets. ill the present study we are using a variety of complementary satellite retrievals of hydrometeors to examine condensate produced by the emerging NASA Modem Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and its associated atmospheric general circulation model GEOS5. Cloud and precipitation are generated by both grid-scale prognostic equations and by the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) diagnostic convective parameterization. The high frequency channels (89 to 183.3 GHz) from AMSU-B and MRS on NOAA polar orbiting satellites are being used to evaluate the climatology and variability of precipitating ice from tropical convective anvils. Vertical hydrometeor structure from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and CloudSat radars are used to develop statistics on vertical hydrometeor structure in order to better interpret the extensive high frequency passive microwave climatology. Cloud liquid and ice water path data retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS, are used to investigate relationships between upper level cloudiness and tropical deep convective anvils. Together these data are used to evaluate cloud / ice water path, gross aspects of vertical hydrometeor structure, and the relationship between cloud extent and surface precipitation that the MERRA reanalysis must capture.

Robertson, Franklin↗

NASA NTRS2018

Changes in Tropical Clouds and Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Rapid Adjustment Induced by Increased Atmospheric CO2 – A Multiscale Modeling Framework Study

The radiative heating increase due to increased CO2 concentration is the primary source for the rapid adjustment of atmospheric circulation and clouds. In this study, we investigate the rapid adjustment resulting from doubling of CO2 and its physical mechanism using a multiscale modeling framework (MMF). The MMF includes an advanced higher-order turbulence closure in its cloud-resolving model component and simulates realistic shallow and deep cloud climatology and boundary layer turbulence. The rapid adjustment over the tropics is characterized by 1) reduced ascent and descent strengths over the ocean, 2) increased lower tropospheric stability (LTS) over the subsidence region, 3) shoaling of planetary boundary layers over the ocean, 4) increased deep convection over lands and shift of cloud coverage from the ocean to lands, and 5) reduced sensible (SH) and latent heat (LH) fluxes over the oceanic deep convective regions. Unlike conventional general circulation models and another MMF, a reduction in the global-mean shortwave cloud radiative cooling is not simulated, due to the increase in low clouds at lower altitudes over the ocean, resulting from reduced cloud-top entrainment due to strengthened inversion. Changes in regional circulation play a key role in cloud changes and shift of cloud coverage to lands. Weaker energy transport resulting from water vapor and cloud CO2 masking effects reduces the upward motion and convective clouds in the oceanic regions. The ocean-land transports are linked to the partitioning of surface SH and LH fluxes that increases humidity over lands and enhances deep convection over the tropical lands.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

NASA NTRS2015

Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting over the U.S. Sunbelt

Seasonal streamflow forecasts, contingent on climate information, can be utilized to ensure water supply for multiple uses including municipal demands, hydroelectric power generation, and for planning agricultural operations. However, uncertainties in the streamflow forecasts pose significant challenges in their utilization in real-time operations. In this study, we systematically decompose various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecasts from two Land Surface Models (LSMs) (Noah3.2 and CLM2), which are forced with downscaled and disaggregated climate forecasts. In particular, the study quantifies the relative contributions of the sources of errors from LSMs, climate forecasts, and downscaling/disaggregation techniques in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. For this purpose, three month ahead seasonal precipitation forecasts from the ECHAM4.5 general circulation model (GCM) were statistically downscaled from 2.8deg to 1/8deg spatial resolution using principal component regression (PCR) and then temporally disaggregated from monthly to daily time step using kernel-nearest neighbor (K-NN) approach. For other climatic forcings, excluding precipitation, we considered the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2) hourly climatology over the years 1979 to 2010. Then the selected LSMs were forced with precipitation forecasts and NLDAS-2 hourly climatology to develop retrospective seasonal streamflow forecasts over a period of 20 years (1991-2010). Finally, the performance of LSMs in forecasting streamflow under different schemes was analyzed to quantify the relative contribution of various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. Our results indicate that the most dominant source of errors during winter and fall seasons is the errors due to ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts, while temporal disaggregation scheme contributes to maximum errors during summer season.

Decomposition↗

NASA NTRS2017

CATS Near Real Time Data Products: Applications for Assimilation Into the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM

From February 2015 through October 2017, the NASA Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) backscatter lidar operated on the International Space Station (ISS) as a technology demonstration for future Earth Science Missions, providing vertical measurements of cloud and aerosols properties. Owing to its location on the ISS, a cornerstone technology demonstration of CATS was the capability to acquire, process, and disseminate near-real time (NRT) data within 6 hours of observation time. CATS NRT data has several applications, including providing notification of hazardous events for air traffic control and air quality advisories, field campaign flight planning, as well as for constraining cloud and aerosol distributions in via data assimilation in aerosol transport models. Â Recent developments in aerosol data assimilation techniques have permitted the assimilation of aerosol optical thickness (AOT), a 2-dimensional column integrated quantity that is reflective of the simulated aerosol loading in aerosol transport models. While this capability has greatly improved simulated AOT forecasts, the vertical position, a key control on aerosol transport, is often not impacted when 2-D AOT is assimilated. Here, we present preliminary efforts to assimilate CATS aerosol observations into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model and assimilation system using a 1-D Variational (1-D VAR) ensemble approach, demonstrating the utility of CATS for future Earth Science Missions.

Hlavka, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Development of a four-dimensional variational analysis system using the adjoint method at GLA. I - Dynamics

Recent developments in the field of data assimilation have pointed to variational analysis (essentially least-squares fitting of a model solution to observed data) using the adjoint method as a new direction that holds the potential of major improvements over the current optimal interpolation method. This paper describes the initial effort in the development of a 4D variational analysis system. Although the development is based on the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres General Circulation Model (GCM), the methods and procedures described in this paper can be applied to any model. The adjoint code that computes the gradients needed in the analysis can be written directly from the GCM code. An easy error-detection technique was devised in the construction of the adjoint model. Also, a method of determining the weights and the preconditioning scales for the cases where model-generated data, which are error free, are used as observation is proposed. Two test experiments show that the dynamics part of the system has been successfully completed.

Chao, Winston C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Improved Understanding of the Modeled QBO Using MLS Observations and MERRA Reanalysis

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the tropical stratosphere on interannual time scales. The QBO has been shown to extend its influence into the chemical composition of this region through dynamical mechanisms. We have started our analysis using the realistic QBO internally generated by the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 33 years. We will show targeted comparisons with observations from NASAs Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis to provide insight into the simulation of the primary and secondary circulations associated with the QBO. Using frequency spectrum analysis and multiple linear regression we can illuminate the resulting circulations and deduce the strengths and weaknesses in their modeled representation. Inclusion of the QBO in our simulation improves the representation of the subtropical barriers and overall tropical variability. The QBO impact on tropical upwelling is important to quantify when calculating trends in sub-decadal scale datasets.

MERRA↗

DOE OSTI2021

Opposite Responses of the Dry and Moist Eddy Heat Transport Into the Arctic in the PAMIP Experiments

Given uncertainty in the processes involved in polar amplification, elucidating the role of poleward heat and moisture transport is crucial. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) permits robust separation of the effects of sea ice loss from sea surface warming under climate change. We utilize a moist isentropic circulation framework that accounts for moisture transport, condensation, and eddy transport, in order to analyze the circulation connecting the mid-latitudes and the Arctic. In PAMIP's atmospheric general circulation model experiments, prescribed sea ice loss reduces poleward heat transport (PHT) by warming the returning moist isentropic circulation at high latitudes, while prescribed warming of the ocean surface increases PHT by strengthening the moist isentropic circulation. Inter-model spread of PHT into the Arctic reflects the tug-of-war between sea-ice and surface-warming effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗