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At least 865 records · Page 48

Optimal stomatal theory predicts CO 2 responses of stomatal conductance in both gymnosperm and angiosperm trees

Optimal stomatal theory predicts that stomata operate to maximise photosynthesis (A net ) and minimise transpirational water loss to achieve optimal intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). We tested whether this theory can predict stomatal responses to elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ), and whether it can capture differences in responsiveness among woody plant functional types (PFTs). We conducted a meta-analysis of tree studies of the effect of eCO 2 on iWUE and its components A net and stomatal conductance (g s ). We compared three PFTs, using the unified stomatal optimisation (USO) model to account for confounding effects of leaf–air vapour pressure difference (D). We expected smaller g s , but greater A net , responses to eCO 2 in gymnosperms compared with angiosperm PFTs. We found that iWUE increased in proportion to increasing eCO 2 in all PFTs, and that increases in A net had stronger effects than reductions in g s . The USO model correctly captured stomatal behaviour with eCO 2 across most datasets. The chief difference among PFTs was a lower stomatal slope parameter (g 1 ) for the gymnosperm, compared with angiosperm, species. Land surface models can use the USO model to describe stomatal behaviour under changing atmospheric CO 2 conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Permanent-magnet energy spectrometer for electron beams from radiotherapy accelerators

Purpose: The purpose of this work was to adapt a lightweight, permanent magnet electron energy spectrometer for the measurement of energy spectra of therapeutic electron beams. Methods: An irradiation geometry and measurement technique were developed for an approximately 0.54-T, permanent dipole magnet spectrometer to produce suitable latent images on computed radiography (CR) phosphor strips. Dual-pinhole electron collimators created a 0.318-cm diameter, approximately parallel beam incident on the spectrometer and an appropriate dose rate at the image plane (CR strip location). X-ray background in the latent image, reduced by a 7.62-cm thick lead block between the pinhole collimators, was removed using a fitting technique. Theoretical energy-dependent detector response functions (DRFs) were used in an iterative technique to transform CR strip net mean dose profiles into energy spectra on central axis at the entrance to the spectrometer. These spectra were transformed to spectra at 95-cm source to collimator distance (SCD) by correcting for the energy dependence of electron scatter. The spectrometer was calibrated by comparing peak mean positions in the net mean dose profiles, initially to peak mean energies determined from the practical range of central-axis percent depth-dose (%DD) curves, and then to peak mean energies that accounted for how the collimation modified the energy spectra (recalibration). The utility of the spectrometer was demonstrated by measuring the energy spectra for the seven electron beams (7–20 MeV) of an Elekta Infinity radiotherapy accelerator. Results: Plots of DRF illustrated their dependence on energy and position in the imaging plane. Approximately 15 iterations solved for the energy spectra at the spectrometer entrance from the measured net mean dose profiles. Transforming those spectra into ones at 95-cm SCD increased the low energy tail of the spectra, while correspondingly decreasing the peaks and shifting them to slightly lower energies. Energy calibration plots of peak mean energy versus peak mean position of the net mean dose profiles for each of the seven electron beams followed the shape predicted by the Lorentz force law for a uniform z-component of the magnetic field, validating its being modeled as uniform (0.542 ± 0.027 T). Measured Elekta energy spectra and their peak mean energies correlated with the 0.5-cm (7–13 MeV) and the 1.0-cm (13–20 MeV) R{sub 90} spacings of the %DD curves. The full-width-half-maximum of the energy spectra decreased with decreasing peak mean energy with the exception of the 9-MeV beam, which was anomalously wide. Similarly, R{sub 80–20} decreased linearly with peak mean energy with the exception of the 9 MeV beam. Both were attributed to suboptimal tuning of the high power phase shifter for the recycled radiofrequency power reentering the traveling wave accelerator. Conclusions: The apparatus and analysis techniques of the authors demonstrated that an inexpensive, lightweight, permanent magnet electron energy spectrometer can be used for measuring the electron energy distributions of therapeutic electron beams (6–20 MeV). The primary goal of future work is to develop a real-time spectrometer by incorporating a real-time imager, which has potential applications such as beam matching, ongoing beam tune maintenance, and measuring spectra for input into Monte Carlo beam calculations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Statistical-learning strategies generate only modestly performing predictive models for urinary symptoms following external beam radiotherapy of the prostate: A comparison of conventional and machine-learning methods

Purpose: Given the paucity of available data concerning radiotherapy-induced urinary toxicity, it is important to ensure derivation of the most robust models with superior predictive performance. This work explores multiple statistical-learning strategies for prediction of urinary symptoms following external beam radiotherapy of the prostate. Methods: The performance of logistic regression, elastic-net, support-vector machine, random forest, neural network, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) to predict urinary symptoms was analyzed using data from 754 participants accrued by TROG03.04-RADAR. Predictive features included dose-surface data, comorbidities, and medication-intake. Four symptoms were analyzed: dysuria, haematuria, incontinence, and frequency, each with three definitions (grade ≥ 1, grade ≥ 2 and longitudinal) with event rate between 2.3% and 76.1%. Repeated cross-validations producing matched models were implemented. A synthetic minority oversampling technique was utilized in endpoints with rare events. Parameter optimization was performed on the training data. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to compare performance using sample size to detect differences of ≥0.05 at the 95% confidence level. Results: Logistic regression, elastic-net, random forest, MARS, and support-vector machine were the highest-performing statistical-learning strategies in 3, 3, 3, 2, and 1 endpoints, respectively. Logistic regression, MARS, elastic-net, random forest, neural network, and support-vector machine were the best, or were not significantly worse than the best, in 7, 7, 5, 5, 3, and 1 endpoints. The best-performing statistical model was for dysuria grade ≥ 1 with AUROC ± standard deviation of 0.649 ± 0.074 using MARS. For longitudinal frequency and dysuria grade ≥ 1, all strategies produced AUROC>0.6 while all haematuria endpoints and longitudinal incontinence models produced AUROC<0.6. Conclusions: Logistic regression and MARS were most likely to be the best-performing strategy for the prediction of urinary symptoms with elastic-net and random forest producing competitive results. The predictive power of the models was modest and endpoint-dependent. New features, including spatial dose maps, may be necessary to achieve better models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The weak land carbon sink hypothesis

Over the past three decades, assessments of the contemporary global carbon budget consistently report a strong net land carbon sink. Here, we review evidence supporting this paradigm and quantify the differences in global and Northern Hemisphere estimates of the net land sink derived from atmospheric inversion and satellite-derived vegetation biomass time series. Our analysis, combined with additional synthesis, supports a hypothesis that the net land sink is substantially weaker than commonly reported. At a global scale, our estimate of the net land carbon sink is 0.8 ± 0.7 petagrams of carbon per year from 2000 through 2019, nearly a factor of two lower than the Global Carbon Project estimate. With concurrent adjustments to ocean (+8%) and fossil fuel (−6%) fluxes, we develop a budget that partially reconciles key constraints provided by vegetation carbon, the north-south CO 2 gradient, and O 2 trends. We further outline potential modifications to models to improve agreement with a weaker land sink and describe several approaches for testing the hypothesis.

Randerson, James T. [Univ. of California, Irvine, ↗

Citywide Impacts of E-Commerce: Does Parcel Delivery Travel Outweigh Household Shopping Travel Reductions?

E-commerce has facilitated online ordering of goods by households in recent years. This technological advancement has disrupted shopping related transportation. While the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS [1]) finds that household shopping frequency has declined in the last 10-20 years, deliveries by parcel delivery trucks and vans [2] have increased. However, the net effect of these phenomena on overall trip making, vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) and fuel consumption has not been quantified. From a regional planning perspective, understanding the net effect is important for informing city policies--for example, in regards to land use and transportation planning. The objective of this research is to address this gap. In this study, the net regional impact of e-commerce on transportation and fuel consumption is evaluated. The approach relies on a powerful, agent-based modeling framework (POLARIS [3]) that models decisions made by individual household and commercial agents. E-commerce demand is modeled for each household using a bilevel multinomial probit structure that evaluates e-commerce participation and ordering frequency. Last-mile delivery tours were constructed using GIS-based tools and information from a major parcel delivery company [4]. After integrating the resulting supply and demand models with all other passenger and commercial traffic within POLARIS, a traffic simulation was performed and subsequently VMT and energy consumption were analyzed. The study finds that while e-commerce has generated an increase in parcel truck delivery trips, the net effect of e-commerce is a reduction in VMT and fuel consumption due major reductions in these quantities via shopping trip reductions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Toward Large-Scale Image Segmentation on Summit

Semantic segmentation of images is an important computer vision task that emerges in a variety of application domains such as medical imaging, robotic vision and autonomous vehicles to name a few. While these domain-specific image analysis tasks involve relatively small image sizes (~ 10 2 × 10 2 ), there are many applications that need to train machine learning models on image data with extents that are orders of magnitude larger (~10 4 × 10 4 ). Training deep neural network (DNN) models on large extent images is extremely memory-intensive and often exceeds the memory limitations of a single graphical processing unit, a hardware accelerator of choice for computer vision workloads. Here, an efficient, sample parallel approach to train U-Net models on large extent image data sets is presented. Its advantages and limitations are analyzed and near-linear strong-scaling speedup demonstrated on 256 nodes (1536 GPUs) of the Summit supercomputer. Using a single node of the Summit supercomputer, an early evaluation of a recently released model parallel framework called GPipe is demonstrated to deliver ~ 2X speedup in executing a U-Net model with an order of magnitude larger number of trainable parameters than reported before. Performance bottlenecks for pipelined training of U-Net models are identified and mitigation strategies to improve the speedups are discussed. Together, these results open up the possibility of combining both approaches into a unified scalable pipelined and data parallel algorithm to efficiently train U-Net models with very large receptive fields on data sets of ultra-large extent images.

Seal, Sudip↗

ROI Hide and Seek Protocol v1

1. Segmentation We provide scripts for the model definition of the U-net architecture adapted from: https://github.com/jvanvugt/pytorch-unet/blob/master/unet.py We developed scripts for preparing the lung segmentation data set. We developed scripts for training the U-Net architecture. We developed scripts for applying the trained U-Net model to perform the ROI Hide and Seek protocol on the classification dataset to create the modified dataset. 2. Classification We provide scripts for the training of the COVID-Net models provided by Linda Wang, this code is adapted from her github repository: https://github.com/lindawangg/COVID-Net/tree/d7b36831d854f57de5bc7557217f5439e86e016f. These scripts were modified to save training log information as well as to load the provided models in their github repo. We developed scripts for training standard Neural Network Models (resnet 50, vgg 11, Alexnet) on the COVID datsets along with the ROI Hide and Seek altered datasets.

Sadre, Robbie↗

Dominating Controls for Wetter South Asian Summer Monsoon in the Twenty-First Century

This study analyzes a suite of global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archives to understand the mechanisms behind a net increase in the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to enhanced radiative forcing during the twenty-first century. An increase in radiative forcing fuels an increase in the atmospheric moisture content through warmer temperatures, which overwhelms the weakening of monsoon circulation and results in an increase of moisture convergence and therefore summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia. Moisture source analysis suggests that both regional (local recycling, the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal) and remote (including the south Indian Ocean) sources contribute to the moisture supply for precipitation over South Asia during the summer season that is facilitated by the monsoon dynamics. For regional moisture sources, the effect of excessive atmospheric moisture is offset by weaker monsoon circulation and uncertainty in the response of the evapotranspiration over land, so anomalies in their contribution to the total moisture supply are either mixed or muted. In contrast, weakening of the monsoon dynamics has less influence on the moisture supply from remote sources that not only is a dominant moisture contributor in the historical period but is also the net driver of the positive summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century. Finally, the results also indicate that historic measures of the monsoon dynamics may not be well suited to predict the nonstationary moisture-driven South Asian summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

[ 89 Zr]Zr-DFO-TOC: a novel radiopharmaceutical for PET imaging of somatostatin receptor positive neuroendocrine tumors

Neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) are clinically diverse types of tumors that can arise anywhere in the body. Previous studies have shown that somatostatin receptors (SSTRs) are overexpressed on NET cell membranes relative to healthy tissue, allowing for tumor targeting through radiolabeled somatostatin analogs (SSAs). This work aims to develop a novel 89 Zr-labeled tracer incorporating the SSA, octreotide (TOC), for positron emission tomography (PET) imaging of SSTR + NETs and predictive dosimetry calculations, leveraging the excellent nuclear (t ½ = 3.27 days, β+ = 22.3%, β + avg = 395.5 keV) and chemical characteristics (+ 4 oxidation state, preferential coordination number of 7/8, favorable aqueous chemistry) of 89 Zr. In combination with 89 Zr, the known radiochemistry with the chelator deferoxamine (DFO) gives reason to believe that this radiopharmaceutical incorporating an octreotide conjugate will be successful in studying the suitability of detecting SSTR + NETs.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Data for Greenhouse Gas Accounting Procedures in Low Carbon Fuel Policies Overlook the Spatial Variability of Miscanthus-Derived Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Low carbon fuel policies such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), and California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) as well as the 45Z tax credit are intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. Cellulosic feedstocks, optimized biorefineries, and favorable farming locations can significantly reduce biofuel carbon intensity (CI). Despite advances in field-to-fuel GHG monitoring and flexibility in resource allocation within biorefineries (e.g., governing net electricity production), rigid CI accounting procedures in current policies may limit CI responsiveness across candidate sites and processing facilities. This work examines a hypothetical biomass-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathway using miscanthus and alcohol-to-jet (i) to demonstrate how GHG accounting requirements drive estimates of biofuel CIs and (ii) to explore potential CI and financial implications of scenario-specific life cycle assessment (LCA). Results demonstrate that GHG accounting using the CFR/LCFS can reasonably account for distinct levels of net electricity production by a biorefinery, but only the CFR yields similar CI sensitivity to spatially explicit factors (feedstock CI, grid electricity CI) as scenario-specific LCA: most GHG accounting frameworks do not capture CI variation across candidate sites in the United States. Ultimately, this work demonstrates the importance of LCA methodological specifications in low carbon fuel policies and tax credits.

Miscanthus↗

Project Management Plan/Progress Report: UT/GTKS Training Program Development for Commercial Building Operators (Final Report)

Universidad del Turabo (UT), in a collaborative effort with Global Turn Key Services, Inc. (GTKS), proposed to develop a training program and a commercialization plan for the development of Commercial Building Operators (CBOs). The CBOs will operate energy efficient buildings to help maintain existing buildings up to their optimal energy performance level, and ensure that net-zero-energy buildings continuously operate at design specifications, thus helping achieve progress towards meeting BTP Strategic Goals of creating technologies and design approaches that enable net-zero-energy buildings at low incremental costs by 2025. The proposed objectives were then: (1) Develop a Commercial Building Operator (CBO) training program and accreditation that will in turn provide a certification to participants recognized by Accreditation Boards such as the North American Board of Certified Energy Practitioners (NABCEP) and Leadership in Energy & Environmental Designs (LEED). (2) Develop and implement a commercialization and sustainability plan that details marketing, deployment, financial characterization, job placement, and other goals required for long-term sustainability of the project after the funding period. (3) After program development and deployment, provide potential candidates with the knowledge and skill sets to obtain employment in the commercial building green energy (net-zero-energy building) job market. The developed CBO training program will focus on providing skills for participants, such as displaced and unemployed workers, to enter the commercial building green energy (net-zeroenergy building) job market. This course was designed to allow a participant with minimal to no experience in commercial building green technology to obtain the required skill sets to enter the job market in as little as 12 weeks of intensive multi-faceted learning. After completion of the course, the CBO staff concluded the participant will meet minimum established accreditation standards established by UT and will complete the contact hours required of training to apply to the Certification on Energy Management (CEM) offered by the Association of Energy Engineers (AEE). The CBO training program consists of a combination of theory (classroom), online & computer simulation, laboratory & hands on (onsite) training lessons. The training is addressed four basic learning elements: (1) Learn the Technology; (2) Practice Skills with hands-on the Energy Simulation Builder program; (3) Final Project and Presentation; and, (4) Accreditation and Certifications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Impact of Market Behavior, Fleet Composition, and Ancillary Services on Revenue Sufficiency

Revenue insufficiency, or the missing money problem, occurs when the revenues that generators earn from the market are not sufficient to cover both fixed and variable costs to remain in the market and/or justify investments in new capacity, which may be needed for reliability. The near-zero marginal cost of variable renewable generators further exacerbates these revenue challenges. Estimating the extent of the missing money problem in current electricity markets is an important, nontrivial task that requires representing both how the power system operates and how market participants behave. This paper explores the missing money problem using a production cost model that represented a simplified version of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy-only market for the years 2012-2014. We evaluate how various market structures -- including market behavior, ancillary services, and changing fleet compositions -- affect net revenues in this ERCOT-like system. In most production cost modeling exercises, resources are assumed to offer their marginal capabilities at marginal costs. Although this assumption is reasonable for feasibility studies and long-term planning, it does not adequately consider the market behaviors that impact revenue sufficiency. In this work, we simulate a limited set of market participant strategic bidding behaviors by means of different sets of markups; these markups are applied to the true production costs of all gas generators, which are the most prominent generators in ERCOT. Results show that markups can help generators increase their net revenues overall, although net revenues may increase or decrease depending on the technology and the year under study. Results also confirm that conventional, variable-cost-based production cost simulations do not capture prices accurately, and this particular feature calls for proxies for strategic behaviors (e.g., markups) and more accurate representations of how electricity markets work. The analysis also shows that generators face revenue sufficiency challenges in this ERCOT-like energy-only market model; net revenues provided by the market in all base markup cases and sensitivity scenarios (except when a large fraction of the existing coal fleet is retired) are not sufficient to justify investments in new capacity for thermal and nuclear power units. Overall, the work described in this paper points to the need for improved behavioral models of electricity markets to more accurately study current and potential market design issues that could arise in systems with high penetrations of renewable generation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Carbon cycle dynamics within Oregon’s urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes

Our overarching goal was to develop and utilize an observation-based analysis framework to assess interactions between climate and mosaics of land use, land cover and urbanization on regional carbon, water, and energy dynamics, and potential changes associated with land management and climate. Carbon, water and energy cycling was quantified for the range of current and potential land uses under present and future climates. The study region of Oregon has a strong climatic gradient from the coastal mesic forests (2500mm ppt) to the Willamette Valley, Cascade Mountains, and the Northern Great Basin semi-arid “cold desert” to the east (300 mm). The study was focused on the effects of (1) conversion of semi-arid sagebrush and Willamette Valley agricultural crops to bioenergy production; (2) afforestation of idle land and rangelands deemed suitable for forests or poplar crops under future climate conditions. We found that net ecosystem production (NEP), the net of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration, was 10 times higher in the high biomass forests of the Coast Range compared with drier regions like sagebrush in the Northern Great Basin, which was nearly zero (Schmidt et al. 2016). The state total NEP averaged about 30 teragrams carbon (Tg C) per year for the years 2012 to 2014 using our model framework that we developed for predictions of current and future NEP, and compared well with our detailed inventory estimates (28 Tg C annual average for 2011-2015 for forests only; Law et al. 2017). Running our model framework until the year 2050, we found that climate alone only increased NEP by less than 1 Tg C per decade (~3%) using the current trajectory of carbon dioxide emissions, however, changes are expected to be more rapid in subsequent years. We evaluated the possibility of land use change from grass seed crops to poplar for bioenergy, which slightly increased NEP by 2050. The most important variable for carbon sequestration estimates (net carbon sources and sinks) is net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB), which accounts for NEP and losses associated with harvest removals and wildfire emissions. Here, we focus on forests because they have the largest effect on carbon sequestration. We found that NECB in Oregon averaged 18.8 Tg C per year in 2011-2015, offsetting fossil fuel emissions (16 Tg C per year). Annual fire emissions reducing NECB by about 5% (0.97 Tg C per year) in the state. The mesic Coast Range and West Cascades ecoregions that make up the western third of Oregon account for 60% of the forest NECB. This analysis illustrates that annual emissions from forests disturbances are low relative to annual fossil fuel emissions for the same area (Law et al. 2017, Hudiburg et al. in review).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

At-source Recovery of Rare Earth Elements from Coal Mine Drainage

Conventional acid mine drainage (AMD) treatment consists of pH adjustment, oxidation, and separation of solid precipitates from discharge quality water. Alkaline addition increases the pH to the range 7 to 9 to precipitate the regulated metals Al and Mn ions as hydroxides. Mechanical or chemical oxidation then converts the reduced iron species Fe 2+ to Fe 3+ which precipitates at a low pH value as ferric hydroxide (Fe(OH) 3 ). Co-precipitation of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) with hydroxides creates a gangue-rich matrix from which REEs must be separated. Fe(OH)3 is generally the most abundant gangue-forming metal. Current research by the project team has shown raw, untreated AMD has an average total rare earth element content (TREE) of about 287 μg/L (0.287 ppm). Operators of AMD-producing facilities are obliged to treat it to neutralize acidity and remove regulated metals (e.g., iron (Fe), aluminum (Al), and manganese (Mn)) prior to discharge. Ongoing research indicates conventional AMD treatment concentrates TREE in resulting precipitates (AMD sludge) by an average factor of 2,635x to an average dry weight, elemental concentration of 708 g/t (ppm). While the economics of recovering REEs from AMD sludge are appealing, much of the cost of REE recovery would be incurred during separation of REEs from the gangue metals: Fe, Al, and Mn. Significant gains can be made by precipitating REEs when most of these gangue metals are still in solution. Significant improvements in REE extraction efficiency can be obtained through separation of REEs from the aqueous phase AMD, upstream of conventional AMD treatment by: 1) creating an enriched REE feedstock, 2) producing a more consistent feedstock, 3) reducing transportation costs to an REE refinery, 4) reducing acid consumption in the acid leaching step, and 5) reducing the volume of waste produced at the ALSX plant. This project is exploring two novel approaches for extracting REEs upstream of the conventional AMD treatment plants to create a purified REE feedstock while leaving the bulk of the Fe, Al, and Mn in solution for subsequent treatment. While the average TREE concentration of raw AMD is low and individual sites range between 10 and 2,200 μg/L, successful at-source REE separation will generate a superior feedstock to a conventional ALSX process and significantly improve the economics and environmental performance of REE extraction from AMD. AMD can be classified into two types: type A is net acid and iron is partly oxidized while type B is net alkaline, and iron occurs in the reduced, ferrous state. In Case A, the pH is raised slightly, which will precipitate Fe 3+ and Al 3+ but not REEs. The other important type of AMD is net alkaline water found in flooded, anoxic deep mines. These generally have a pH > 6.0 and are net alkaline. REE concentrations are also much lower than those found in acidic AMD while the volumes and flux are much higher. Most of these are pumped discharges with almost no Al. Case B AMD is strongly reduced and, like Case A water, Fe and Mn ions are similarly reduced and therefore soluble at pH <9.0. REEs and an array of transition ions will be the only trivalent cations in this type of AMD. In Case B, both upward pH adjustment under reducing conditions and application of an electrochemically stimulated supported liquid membrane strategy to separate REEs from ferrous ion will be explored.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Technology Development and Field Monitoring in nZEB - US Country report IEA HPT Annex 49 Task 3

The International Energy Agency (IEA) Heat Pumping Technologies (HPT) Annex 49, “Design and Integration of Heat Pumps for Nearly Zero Energy Buildings,” deals with the application of heat pumps (HPs) as a core component of the HVAC system for nearly or net-zero energy buildings. This report covers the Task 3 activities of the US team. Three institutions are involved on the US team and have worked on the following projects. 1) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) summarized development activities since the conclusion of IEA HPT Annex 40 for several integrated HP (IHP) systems - electric ground-source IHP and air-source IHP versions and engine-driven AS-IHP version. 2) The University of Maryland partnered with ORNL and Blue Bear Management to develop a personal cooling device called RoCo that can provide personalized conditioned air to occupants in inadequately or unconditioned environments. With RoCo, building facility management can elevate the HVAC thermostat settings without compromising occupants’ thermal comfort. Researchers have found that a 4°F increase in thermostat settings can save 12–30% energy savings. Therefore, RoCo is a promising technology that can help reduce building energy consumption and facilitate achievement of net-zero energy building performance. 3) The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is working on a field study effort on the NIST Net-Zero Energy Residential Test Facility. Two air-source split-system HPs were installed in a residential, net-zero energy home that was constructed as a laboratory on the NIST campus in Gaithersburg, Maryland. The first HP was a two-stage, 7 kW (2 ton), 15.8 seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER), 9.05 heating seasonal performance factor (HSPF) conventionally ducted system; the second HP was a variable-speed, 10.6 kW (3 ton), 14 SEER, 8.35 HSPF, high-velocity ducted system. These two systems operated side by side, using separate supply ducts and a common return duct, on a weekly alternating schedule to condition the home that was operated with very consistent simulated thermal loads. The team wanted to determine whether the high-velocity system could provide comparable energy-use efficiency to the conventional system. The results of this study showed that it did meet the required loads and had slightly greater efficiency; the average cooling coefficient of performance (COP) was (0.40 ± 0.11) higher, and the average heating COP was statistically equal. A new firmware was provided at the end of the heating season that greatly improved the performance of the high-velocity system; its average heating COP went from (1.8 ± 0.9) to (2.5 ± 1.1) at a 95% confidence level. The new firmware heating COP averaged (1.05 ± 0.23) higher than the old firmware over the same outdoor temperatures. The defrost performance is very different for these two systems, yet they consumed equivalent energy per HDD. The conventional system uses a timed-initiate, temperature-terminate algorithm with auxiliary electric resistive heating, whereas the high-velocity system uses calculated evaporator parameters with a hot-gas bypass before a full reverse-cycle defrost with no supplementary resistive heat.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Analysis with the ORIGEN Module of PNAR Spent Fuel Measurements for Nuclear Safeguards Applications

This report documents the analysis of the Passive Neutron Albedo Reactivity (PNAR) measurements for 23 boiling water reactor spent fuel assemblies that were performed in Finland under Action Sheet 65, which is an international collaboration on spent fuel safeguards verification methods in the context of the Finnish spent fuel encapsulation/repository system. PNAR measures the passive neutron and gamma emission rates from each of the spent fuel assemblies like a Fork detector, and it also measures the PNAR ratio, which is expected to correlate with the net neutron multiplication of the measured fuel assembly. The analysis was performed with the Oak Ridge Isotope Generation and Depletion (ORIGEN) Data Analysis Module, which was originally developed for predicting Fork detector spent fuel measurement signals in real time and has been integrated into the Integrated Review and Analysis Package developed by Euratom and the International Atomic Energy Agency. The module includes the ORIGEN burnup analysis code and integrates detector response functions pregenerated using the MCNP Monte Carlo transport code to predict the detector signals in several seconds per assembly. In this study, new response functions specific to the analyzed PNAR measurements were generated for the ORIGEN Module. The study also analyzes the impact of using detailed fuel design and operation information vs. standard safeguards information on the results calculated with the ORIGEN Module. Using detailed information reduced the standard deviation of the relative differences between calculated and measured neutron count rates among the 23 assemblies from ~10% to ~4%. The results obtained using standard safeguards information for these PNAR measurements were similar to those obtained for the Fork detector. A clear trend was found between the calculated net neutron multiplications and the measured PNAR ratios of the 23 assemblies. An uncertainty assessment of the calculations was also performed to estimate the potential impact of the accuracy and the completeness of declaration information on the calculated results for the count rates and net neutron multiplications. The ORIGEN Module predictions for PNAR signals and net neutron multiplication are expected to directly support the safeguards inspectors’ efforts to verify operator declarations of a spent fuel assembly in real time in safeguards practices.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Verification of Data-Driven Models of Physical Phenomena using Interpretable Approximation

Machine-learned models, specifically neural networks, are increasingly used as “closures” or “constitutive models” in engineering simulators to represent fine-scale physical phenomena that are too computationally expensive to resolve explicitly. However, these neural net models of unresolved physical phenomena tend to fail unpredictably and are therefore not used in mission-critical simulations. In this report, we describe new methods to authenticate them, i.e., to determine the (physical) information content of their training datasets, qualify the scenarios where they may be used and to verify that the neural net, as trained, adhere to physics theory. We demonstrate these methods with neural net closure of turbulent phenomena used in Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show the types of turbulent physics extant in our training datasets, and, using a test flow of an impinging jet, identify the exact locations where the neural network would be extrapolating i.e., where it would be used outside the feature-space where it was trained. Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, we also generate explanations of the neural net (à la Local Interpretable Model agnostic Explanations) at prototypes placed in the training data and compare them with approximate analytical models from turbulence theory. Finally, we verify our findings by reproducing them using two different methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Identifying Electric Vehicles to Best Serve University Fleet Needs and Support Sustainability Goals

University fleets represent an enticing opportunity to explore the near-term feasibility of achieving net-zero-carbon emissions in transportation. In many instances, universities operate much like a small, self-contained ecosystem with all the same transportation needs as a larger municipality, but with a smaller geographic footprint. Their fleets often include a wide variety of vehicle types serving the campus, including low-speed vehicles (e.g., golf carts), light-duty sedans, SUVs, and pickups, as well as medium-duty trucks and delivery vehicles. The mix of vehicle and operational needs combined with broader activities related to net-zero campuses makes universities and colleges unique microcosms to determine the feasibility of and path to achieving net-zero fleets. As the availability of electric drivetrains expands beyond light-duty sedans, fleets need to understand when it will be operationally and financially appropriate to start adding electric drivetrains to their fleets. To better understand these opportunities, NREL contracted Sawatch Labs to analyze the role electric vehicles (EVs) can have in helping universities meet net-zero emissions and fleet sustainability goals they have instituted.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗