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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble cure kinetics network (ECK-Net): A method to derive cure kinetics of thermosetting resin

This paper introduces an Ensemble Cure Kinetics Network (ECK-Net), a neural network (NN)–based framework for modeling the cure kinetics of thermosetting resins within a phenomenological context. ECK-Net replaces traditional analytic models, which require extensive chemical insight and multiple isothermal/non-isothermal experiments, with a data-driven surrogate that maps nonlinear relationships between temperature, degree of cure, and reaction rate from differential scanning calorimetry data. The proposed approach predicts input-dependent kinetic coefficients of a generalized nth-order reaction equation rather than reaction rates directly, enabling a single unified model to represent various epoxy systems without relying on iso-conversional analysis or predefined functional forms. To ensure robustness, multiple independently trained networks under different random initializations are blended through an ensemble strategy, effectively mitigating the stochastic variability inherent to neural networks. The framework is validated using experimental datasets from multiple resin systems, including aerospace-grade materials (Toray 3900-2, Cycom 5320-1, and Hexcel 8552) and a windmill-grade resin (RIMR 035c). The model accurately reproduces the temporal evolution of the degree of cure under manufacturers’ recommended cure cycles across all tested resins systems, yielding Pearson’s correlation coefficients of 0.992, 0.994, 0.993, 0.997, respectively. To demonstrate process-level applicability, the trained network was implemented within the Abaqus environment to simulate out-of-autoclave (OOA) curing process of the CFRP panel composed of Toray T830H-6K/3900-2D prepreg. The simulation results showed excellent agreement with experimental temperature response (maximum peak temperature, simulation: 189.6 °C, experiment: 188.5 °C) and the final degree of cure (simulation: 0.948, experiment: 0.960 ± 0.013), confirming ECK-Net’s capability as a reliable alternative to conventional cure kinetics modeling methods.

Composite curing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Metal Foam Morphology Affects the Run to Run Reproducibility of OER Using Nickel Catalysts

Nickel (Ni) foam-based electrodes are excellent catalysts for the oxygen evolution reaction; however, we found that the random pore-size distribution of Ni foams contributes to a significant variability in electrochemically active surface area, compromising experimental reproducibility. We provide insights into quantifying this critical material property, verified by four electrochemical laboratories.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic measures for biological adaptation and resilience

This paper introduces an approach to quantifying ecological resilience in biological systems, particularly focusing on noisy systems responding to episodic disturbances with sudden adaptations. Incorporating concepts from nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, we propose a measure termed “ecological resilience through adaptation,” specifically tailored to noisy, forced systems that undergo physiological adaptation in the face of stressful environmental changes. Randomness plays a key role, accounting for model uncertainty and the inherent variability in the dynamical response among components of biological systems. Our measure of resilience is rooted in the probabilistic description of states within these systems and is defined in terms of the dynamics of the ensemble average of a model-specific observable quantifying success or well-being. Our approach utilizes stochastic linear response theory to compute how the expected success of a system, originally in statistical equilibrium, dynamically changes in response to a environmental perturbation and a subsequent adaptation. Importantly, the resulting mathematical derivations allow for the estimation of resilience in terms of ensemble averages of simulated or experimental data. Finally, through a simple but clear conceptual example, we illustrate how our resilience measure can be interpreted and compared to other existing frameworks in the literature. The methodology is general but inspired by applications in plant systems, with the potential for broader application to complex biological processes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Biochar application as a tool to decrease soil nitrogen losses (NH3 volatilization, N2O emissions, and N leaching) from croplands: Options and mitigation strength in a global perspective

Biochar application to croplands has been proposed as a potential strategy to decrease losses of soil-reactive nitrogen (N) to the air and water. However, the extent and spatial variability of biochar function at the global level are still unclear. Using Random Forest regression modelling of machine learning based on data compiled from the literature, we mapped the impacts of different biochar types (derived from wood, straw, or manure), and their interactions with biochar application rates, soil properties, and environmental factors, on soil N losses (NH3 volatilization, N2O emissions, and N leaching) and crop productivity. The results show that a suitable distribution of biochar across global croplands (i.e., one application of <40 t ha-1 wood biochar for poorly buffered soils, such as those characterized by soil pH<5, organic carbon<1%, or clay>30%; and one application of <80 t ha-1 wood biochar, <40 t ha-1 straw biochar, or <10 t ha-1 manure biochar for other soils) could achieve an increase in global crop yields by 222–766 Tg yr-1 (4%–16% increase), a mitigation of cropland N2O emissions by 0.19–0.88 Tg N yr-1 (6%–30% decrease), a decline of cropland N leaching by 3.9–9.2 Tg N yr-1 (12%–29% decrease), but also a fluctuation of cropland NH3 volatilization by -1.9–4.7 Tg N yr-1 (-12%–31% change). The decreased sum of the three major reactive N losses amount to 1.7–9.4 Tg N yr-1, which corresponds to 3%–14% of the global cropland total N loss. Biochar generally has a larger potential for decreasing soil N losses but with less benefits to crop production in temperate regions than in tropical regions.

biochar, soil amendment, nitrogen cycle, climate c↗
DOE OSTI2021

Equatorial waves triggering extreme rainfall and floods in southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia

On the basis of detailed analysis of a case study and long-term climatology, it is shown that equatorial waves and their interactions serve as precursors for extreme rain and flood events in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Meteorological conditions on January 22, 2019, leading to heavy rainfall and devastating flooding in this area were studied. It is shown that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and a convectively coupled Rossby wave (CCERW) embedded within the larger-scale envelope of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) enhanced convective phase, contributed to the onset of a mesoscale convective system which developed over the Java Sea. Low-Level convergence from the CCKW forced mesoscale convective organization and orographic ascent of moist air over the slopes of southwest Sulawesi. Climatological analysis shows that 92 % of December-January-February floods and 76% of extreme rain events in this region were immediately preceded by positive low-level westerly wind anomalies. It is estimated that both CCKWs and CCERWs propagating over Sulawesi double the chance of floods and extreme rain event development, which the probability of such hazardous events occurring during their combined activity is eight times greater than on a random day. While the MJO is a key component shaping tropical atmospheric variability, it is shown that its usefulness as a single factor for extreme weather-driven hazard prediction is limited.

Latos, Beata↗
NASA NTRS1978

Internally and externally caused climate change

A numerical climate model is used to simulate climate change forced only by random fluctuations of the atmospheric heat transport. This short-term natural variability of the atmosphere is shown to be a possible 'cause' not only of the variability of the annual world average temperature about its mean, but also long-term excursions from the mean. Various external causes of climate change are also tested with the model and the results compared with observations for the past 100 years. Volcanic dust is shown to have been an important cause of climate change, while the effects of sunspot-related solar constant variation and anthropogenic forcing are not evident.

Robock, A.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Radio emission evolution of nonstationary sources in the Hedgehog model

Correlations are obtained for numerical calculation of flux F sub v and polarized radiation intensity of a cloud of arbitrary geometry, consisting of ultrarelativistic electrons that dissipate in a radial magnetic field of the nucleus at a random angle to the observer. It is possible that some of the variable extragalactic objects that were previously described by the Shklovskiy model are young formations in the examined model. Radio astronomical observations would permit a determination of their distance, age, and lifetime.

Kovalev, Y. A.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Modal methods in optimal control synthesis

Efficient algorithms for solving linear smoother-follower problems with quadratic criteria are presented. For time-invariant systems, the algorithm consists of one backward integration of a linear vector equation and one forward integration of another linear vector equation. Furthermore, the backward and forward Riccati matrices can be expressed in terms of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Euler-Lagrange equations. Hence, the gains of the forward and backward Kalman-Bucy filters and of the optimal state-feedback regulator can be determined without integration of matrix Riccati equations. A computer program has been developed, based on this method of determining the gains, to synthesize the optimal time-invariant compensator in the presence of random disturbance inputs and random measurement errors. The program also computes the rms state and control variables of the optimal closed-loop system.

Bryson, A. E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Reliability-Based Design Optimization of a Composite Airframe Component

A stochastic optimization methodology (SDO) has been developed to design airframe structural components made of metallic and composite materials. The design method accommodates uncertainties in load, strength, and material properties that are defined by distribution functions with mean values and standard deviations. A response parameter, like a failure mode, has become a function of reliability. The primitive variables like thermomechanical loads, material properties, and failure theories, as well as variables like depth of beam or thickness of a membrane, are considered random parameters with specified distribution functions defined by mean values and standard deviations.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Western Montana Ecological Forecasting: Modeling Habitat Suitability of Mustelid Species to Guide Detection Dog Surveys for Contaminants Monitoring, via Collected Scats in River Systems of Western Montana

Environmental contaminants are becoming increasingly prevalent in riverine ecosystems. The status of contaminants in western Montana’s relatively pristine river systems is largely unknown. Monitoring for heavy metals, brominated flame-retardants (BFRs), and pharmaceuticals is important due to their negative effects on ecosystems. Exposure to these contaminants can have significant endocrine, neurological, and reproductive effects. Contaminants easily travel up the food chain and bioaccumulate in apex predators. As predators with a largely aquatic diet, American mink (Mustela vison) and North American river otter (Lontra canadensis) serve as reliable indicator species of environmental health and the status of contaminants. Analysis of scat from these species is a noninvasive method to measure contaminant levels, and detection dogs from Working Dogs for Conservation (WD4C) have been used to locate these scat samples. To aid in the search of these samples, habitat suitability models were created for mink and otter for the years 2013-2020 and projected to 2040 using the random forest algorithm in the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM). Predictor variable data were acquired from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP). Within these models, the most important variable for mink and otter habitat was distance to river. Suitable habitat also corresponded with emergent herbaceous land cover and deeper river locations. These habitat suitability models will inform sampling site section for further contaminant analysis.

Anna Winter↗
NASA NTRS1986

The design of a turboshaft speed governor using modern control techniques

The objectives of this program were: to verify the model of off schedule compressor variable geometry in the T700 turboshaft engine nonlinear model; to evaluate the use of the pseudo-random binary noise (PRBN) technique for obtaining engine frequency response data; and to design a high performance power turbine speed governor using modern control methods. Reduction of T700 engine test data generated at NASA-Lewis indicated that the off schedule variable geometry effects were accurate as modeled. Analysis also showed that the PRBN technique combined with the maximum likelihood model identification method produced a Bode frequency response that was as accurate as the response obtained from standard sinewave testing methods. The frequency response verified the accuracy of linear models consisting of engine partial derivatives and used for design. A power turbine governor was designed using the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) method of full state feedback control. A Kalman filter observer was used to estimate helicopter main rotor blade velocity. Compared to the baseline T700 power turbine speed governor, the LQR governor reduced droop up to 25 percent for a 490 shaft horsepower transient in 0.1 sec simulating a wind gust, and up to 85 percent for a 700 shaft horsepower transient in 0.5 sec simulating a large collective pitch angle transient.

Delosreyes, G.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Understanding Solar Cycle Variability

The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of timescales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on longer timescales. Drawing from dynamo theory, together with the empirical results of past solar activity and similar phenomena for solar-like stars, we show that the variability of the solar cycle can be essentially understood in terms of a weakly nonlinear limit cycle affected by random noise. In contrast to ad hoc “toy models” for the solar cycle, this leads to a generic normal-form model, whose parameters are all constrained by observations. The model reproduces the characteristics of the variable solar activity on timescales between decades and millennia, including the occurrence and statistics of extended periods of very low activity (grand minima). Comparison with results obtained with a Babcock–Leighton-type dynamo model confirm the validity of the normal-mode approach.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Extreme Variability in a Broad Absorption Line Quasar

CRTS J084133.15+200525.8 is an optically bright quasar at z = 2.345 that has shown extreme spectral variability over the past decade. Photometrically, the source had a visual magnitude of V ∼ 17.3 between 2002 and 2008. Then, over the following five years, the source slowly brightened by approximately one magnitude, to V ∼ 16.2. Only ∼1 in 10,000 quasars show such extreme variability, as quantified by the extreme parameters derived for this quasar assuming a damped random walk model. A combination of archival and newly acquired spectra reveal the source to be an iron low-ionization broad absorption line quasar with extreme changes in its absorption spectrum. Some absorption features completely disappear over the 9 years of optical spectra, while other features remain essentially unchanged. We report the first definitive redshift for this source, based on the detection of broad H α in a Keck/MOSFIRE spectrum. Absorption systems separated by several 1000 km s{sup −1} in velocity show coordinated weakening in the depths of their troughs as the continuum flux increases. We interpret the broad absorption line variability to be due to changes in photoionization, rather than due to motion of material along our line of sight. This source highlights one sort of rare transition object that astronomy will now be finding through dedicated time-domain surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2023

Southern Rockies Western Slope Agriculture: Identifying Drivers of Rangeland Production for Drought Planning on the Western Slope of the Southern Rockies

Over the last decade, the southern Rocky Mountains of the United States experienced severe and variable drought. Local ranchers and landowners have reported strain on their operations, citing decreasing forage for their cattle and a need to adjust their business models. This study identified Major Land Resource Area-48 (MLRA-48) and northwestern Colorado as the key region for analysis. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the BLM Colorado River Field Office, Colorado State University Extension, USDA Forest Service, and the National Drought Mitigation Center to address concerns regarding the efficacy of remotely sensed rangeland production platforms and identify early warning climatic indicators of drought. The study identified two key platforms, The Rangeland Productivity Monitoring Service (RPMS) and Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP), which use NASA Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+, Landsat 8 OLI, and Landsat 9 OLI-2 to estimate rangeland biomass. We regressed these with in situ biomass data to validate their efficacy and found that RAP was more effective than RPMS in estimating rangeland biomass, though it presents a tendency to overestimate. Our study performed a random forest analysis, comparing monthly RAP biomass estimates to a variety of climate variables, including mean precipitation, temperature, Palmer Drought Severity Index, snow water equivalent, snow persistence from Terra MODIS, wind speed and direction, and vapor pressure deficit. We determined that vapor pressure deficit and precipitation are key indicators in predicting forage production in MLRA-48. Our climate analysis provided our partners with greater understanding of the influence of various climate variables in determining rangeland production and allows them to assist land managers in drought mitigation.

remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of linear regression, k-nearest neighbour and random forest methods in airborne laser-scanning-based prediction of growing stock

Abstract In this study, for five sites around the world, we look at the effects of different model types and variable selection approaches on forest yield modelling performances in an area-based approach (ABA). We compared ordinary least squares regression (OLS), k-nearest neighbours (kNN) and random forest (RF). Our objective was to test if there are systematic differences in accuracy between OLS, kNN and RF in ABA predictions of growing stock volume. The analyses are based on a 5-fold cross-validation at five study sites: an eucalyptus plantation, a temperate forest and three different boreal forests. Two completely independent validation datasets were also available for two of the boreal sites. For the kNN, we evaluated multiple measures of distance including Euclidean, Mahalanobis, most similar neighbour (MSN) and an RF-based distance metric. The variable selection approaches we examined included a heuristic approach (for OLS, kNN and RF), exhaustive search among all combinations (OLS only) and all variables together (RF only). Performances varied by model type and variable selection approaches among sites. OLS and RF had similar accuracies and were more efficient than any of the kNN variants. Variable selection did not affect RF performance. Heuristic and exhaustive variable selection performed similarly for OLS. kNN fared the poorest amongst model types, and kNN with RF distance was prone to overfitting when compared with a validation dataset. Additional caution is therefore required when building kNN models for volume prediction though ABA, being preferable instead to opt for models based on OLS with some variable selection, or RF with all variables together.

Cosenza, Diogo N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling freight mode choice using machine learning classifiers: a comparative study using Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) data

This study explores the usefulness of machine learning classifiers for modeling freight mode choice. We investigate eight commonly used machine learning classifiers, namely Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network, K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification and Regression Tree, Random Forest, Boosting and Bagging, along with the classical Multinomial Logit model. US 2012 Commodity Flow Survey data are used as the primary data source; we augment it with spatial attributes from secondary data sources. The performance of the classifiers is compared based on prediction accuracy results. The current research also examines the role of sample size and training-testing data split ratios on the predictive ability of the various approaches. In addition, the importance of variables is estimated to determine how the variables influence freight mode choice. The results show that the tree-based ensemble classifiers perform the best. Specifically, Random Forest produces the most accurate predictions, closely followed by Boosting and Bagging. With regard to variable importance, shipment characteristics, such as shipment distance, industry classification of the shipper and shipment size, are the most significant factors for freight mode choice decisions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Modeling the influence of preferential flow on the spatial variability and time-dependence of mineral weathering rates

Inferences of weathering rates from laboratory and field observations suggest significant scale and time-dependence. Preferential flow induced by heterogeneity (manifest as permeability variations or discrete fractures) has been suggested as one potential mechanism causing scale/time-dependence. In this paper, we present a quantitative evaluation of the influence of preferential flow on weathering rates using reactive transport modeling. Simulations were performed in discrete fracture networks (DFNs) and correlated random permeability fields (CRPFs), and compared to simulations in homogeneous permeability fields. The simulations reveal spatial variability in the weathering rate, multidimensional distribution of reactions zones, and the formation of rough weathering interfaces and corestones due to preferential flow. In the homogeneous fields and CRPFs, the domain-averaged weathering rate is initially constant as long as the weathering front is contained within the domain, reflecting equilibrium-controlled behavior. The behavior in the CRPFs was influenced by macrodispersion, with more spread-out weathering profiles, an earlier departure from the initial constant rate and longer persistence of weathering. DFN simulations exhibited a sustained time-dependence resulting from the formation of diffusion-controlled weathering fronts in matrix blocks, which is consistent with the shrinking core mechanism. A significant decrease in the domain-averaged weathering rate is evident despite high remaining mineral volume fractions, but the decline does not follow a math formula dependence, characteristic of diffusion, due to network scale effects and advection-controlled behavior near the inflow boundary. Finally, the DFN simulations also reveal relatively constant horizontally averaged weathering rates over a significant depth range, challenging the very notion of a weathering front.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

VARIABILITY AT THE EDGE: OPTICAL NEAR/IR RAPID-CADENCE MONITORING OF NEWLY OUTBURSTING FU ORIONIS OBJECT HBC 722

We present the detection of day-timescale periodic variability in the r-band lightcurve of newly outbursting FU Orionis-type object HBC 722, taken from >42 nights of observation with the CQUEAN instrument on the McDonald Observatory 2.1 m telescope. The optical/near-IR lightcurve of HBC 722 shows a complex array of periodic variability, clustering around 5.8-day (0.044 mag amplitude) and 1.28-day (0.016 mag amplitude) periods, after removal of overall baseline variation. We attribute the unusual number of comparable strength signals to a phenomenon related to the temporary increase in accretion rate associated with FUors. We consider semi-random 'flickering', magnetic braking/field compression and rotational asymmetries in the disk instability region as potential sources of variability. Assuming that the 5.8-day period is due to stellar rotation and the 1.28-day period is indicative of Keplerian rotation at the inner radius of the accretion disk (at 2 R {sub *}), we derive a B-field strength of 2.2-2.7 kG, slightly larger than typical T Tauri stars. If instead the 5.8-day signal is from a disk asymmetry, the instability region has an outer radius of 5.4 R {sub *}, consistent with models of FUor disks. Further exploration of the time domain in this complicated source and related objects will be key to understanding accretion processes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗