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DOE OSTI2020

Deep learning for in situ data compression of large turbulent flow simulations

As the size of turbulent flow simulations continues to grow, in situ data compression is becoming increasingly important for visualization, analysis, and restart checkpointing. For these applications, single-pass compression techniques with low computational and communication overhead are crucial. In this paper we present a deep-learning approach to in situ compression using an autoencoder architecture that is customized for three-dimensional turbulent flows and is well suited for contemporary heterogeneous computing resources. The autoencoder is compared against a recently introduced randomized single-pass singular value decomposition (SVD) for three different canonical turbulent flows: decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence, a Taylor-Green vortex, and turbulent channel flow. Our proposed fully convolutional autoencoder architecture compresses turbulent flow snapshots by a factor of 64 with a single pass, allows for arbitrarily sized input fields, is cheaper to compute than the randomized single-pass SVD for typical simulation sizes, performs well on unseen flow configurations, and has been made publicly available. The results reported here show that the autoencoder dramatically outperforms a randomized single-pass SVD with similar compression ratio and yields comparable performance to a higher-rank decomposition with an order of magnitude less compression in regard to preserving a number of important statistical quantities such as turbulent kinetic energy, enstrophy, and Reynolds stresses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

AEflow (Autoencoder fluid flow compression network) [SWR-22-29]

King, Ryan↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Applied Strategy for Using Empirical and Hybrid Models in Online Monitoring

The monitoring of plant equipment for failure prediction is one of the key contributors to operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for a nuclear power plant (NPP) because O&M monitoring depends on labor-intensive activities that are required to meet high equipment reliability standards. These activities rely primarily on humans for information gathering, condition diagnosis, and predictive analysis. Online monitoring aims to automate these activities by relying on sensors to replace human information gathering and machine learning to replace human analysis and decision making. To facilitate automated monitoring, a systematic strategy for anomaly detection is needed to optimally use the available sensor data, empirical models, and physics-supported models. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical (i.e., purely data-driven) versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. The extant methods usually adopt an ad hoc trial-and-error approach that, in addition to being time-consuming and costly, is also highly subjective; it is impacted by the background and the skill set of the personnel making the decisions. Thus, such an approach cannot guarantee an optimum outcome. This represents the motivation of the current research effort, which is focused on devising a scientifically supported strategy for the optimum selection of anomaly detection methods. This report presents a detailed assessment of the main anomaly detection techniques within the empirical or hybrid method streams. Empirical methods include pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The listed techniques within these two streams represent the vast majority of techniques performed for anomaly detection. Using the techniques as outcomes, a strategy was developed to enable a systematic decision-making process to lead to one of these techniques. The strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. Each of these decision points in the strategy is explained in detail in this report with examples, along with the scientific basis behind the decisions and outcomes in common and simplified terminology. The strategy is developed for use by any NPP staff with basic engineering or science knowledge. A user-friendly graphical state flow diagram was also developed as a visual presentation of the strategy. The strategy was tested and demonstrated through two pilot projects for the application of anomaly detection at an NPP. Each pilot had two use cases: an initial case in which certain decisions were made that resulted in one or more empirical techniques and a revised use case where one or more key decisions were modified resulting in using a set of hybrid methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Classification of Cloud Particle Imagery and Thermodynamics (COCPIT): A New Databasing Tool for the Characterization of Cloud Particle Images Captured During DOE Field Campaigns

The Department of Energy for decades has explored the earth system and atmosphere through research and deployment of in-situ and remote sensing platforms during field campaigns. Among these datasets exists a vast supply of cloud particle images that provide visual insight into the complex microphysics in the clouds that span our globe. The millions of images collected over decades of deployments provides a unique opportunity to further our understanding of our atmosphere down to the crystal size. This work over the past 5 years has sought to organize these images into digestible datasets that can then be used by scientists to further our understanding of microphysics. A machine learning model was developed that categorizes over 1.5 million images across 11 weather events with over 90% accuracy according to particle type. The database was then extended to include dimensional characteristics of the particle as well as co-location of environmental properties, such as temperature and water content. Then, to initialize the connection between these data and our understanding of how crystals form and grow, weather research and forecasting simulations were run to generate the growth histories of the classified crystals. This research culminates with 2 databases per event: (1) a database of all classified crystals and their dimensional and environmental properties and (2) simulated growth histories of each crystal. Finally, a user interface was created to allow researchers to explore data statistics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Ultrasonic Bat Deterrent Technology

The project objective was to advance the development and testing of a near commercial bat-deterrent system with a goal to increase the current GE deterrent system effectiveness to over 50% with broad species applicability. Additionally, the research supported by this program has provided insights into bat behavior and ultrasonic deterrent design that had not previously been explored. Prior research and development had demonstrated the effectiveness of a commercial-grade, air-powered, ultrasonic bat deterrent to be between 30-50% depending upon the species of bat. However, the previous research provided limited insight into the behavioral responses of bats in the presence of ultrasonic deterrent sound fields that could be utilized to improve effectiveness. A unique bat flight room was utilized to observe the behavioral characteristics of bats in the presence of ultrasonic sound fields. Behavioral testing in the bat flight facility demonstrated that ultrasonic sounds similar to those produced by the GE deterrent influenced the activities and behaviors, primarily those associated with foraging, of the species exposed. The study also indicated that continuous and pulsing ultrasonic signals had a similar effect on the bats, and confirmed that as ultrasonic sounds attenuate, their influence on the bats’ activities and behavior decreases. Ground testing at Wolf Ridge Wind, LLC and Shawnee National Forest assessed both continuous and pulsing deterrent signals emitted from the GE deterrent system and further enhanced the behavioral understanding of bats in the presence of the deterrent. With these data and observations, the existing 4-nozzle continuous, or steady, emission ultrasonic system was redesigned to a 6-nozzle system that could emit a pulsing signal covering a larger air space around a turbine. Twelve GE 1.6-100 turbines were outfitted with the deterrent system and a formal three-month field study was performed using daily carcass searches beneath the 12 turbines. Additionally, a unique 3D bat flight path visualization system was utilized to monitor for and identify any changes in bat activity caused by the operation of the deterrent system. Both the carcass search and flight path visualization data indicated that the pulsed deterrent system was effective, but not more effective, than the steady system tested in prior years. However, an unanticipated byproduct of the pulsing system was the emission of intermittent water vapor from the deterrent devices due to the air compression process that powered the devices. This water vapor may have altered the ultrasonic signal and obscured the results in an unknown way. While a qualitative analysis of the effect of the water vapor on the deterrent signal had indicated there was not dramatic change in the expected ultrasonic signal, it was not possible to conclusively determine if the pulse signal would have been more effective in the absence of the water vapor. A mid-season installation of a desiccant system was performed and the dataset divided into two groups to account for the change. Prior to the system change, the deterrent was not effective (-23%, P = 0.8617, α = 0.05) at reducing eastern red bat fatalities and effective (38%, P = 0.0169, α = 0.05) for the non-eastern red bat species, combined. After the installation of the desiccant system, the pulsed deterrent system showed similar results, although not statistically significant, with a point estimates of 23% (P = 0.2924, α = 0.05) observed for eastern red bats and 54% (P = 0.0926, α = 0.05) for the other combined bat species.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Peering through the flames: imaging techniques for reacting aluminum powders

Combusting metals burn at high temperatures and emit high-intensity radiation in the visible spectrum which can over-saturate regular imaging sensors and obscure the field of view. Filtering the luminescence can result in limited information and hinder thorough combustion characterization. A method for “seeing through the flames” of a highly luminescent aluminum powder reaction is presented using copper vapor laser (CVL) illumination synchronized with a high-speed camera. A statistical comparison of combusting aluminum particle agglomerate between filtered halogen and CVL illumination shows the effectiveness of this diagnostic approach. When ignited by an electrically induced plasma, aluminum particles are entrained as solid agglomerates that rotate about their centers of mass and are surrounded by emitted, burning gases. Furthermore, the average agglomerate diameter appears to be 160 micrometers when viewed with standard illumination and a high-speed camera. But, a significantly lower diameter of 50 micrometers is recorded when imaged with CVL illumination. Our results advocate that alternative imaging techniques are required to resolve the complexities of metal particle combustion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Improving Precipitation Estimation Using Convolutional Neural Network

Precipitation process is generally considered to be poorly represented in numerical weather/climate models. Statistical downscaling (SD) methods, which relate precipitation with model resolved dynamics, often provide more accurate precipitation estimates compared to model's raw precipitation products. Herein we introduce the convolutional neural network model to foster this aspect of SD for daily precipitation prediction. Specifically, we restrict the predictors to the variables that are directly resolved by discretizing the atmospheric dynamics equations. In this sense, our model works as an alternative to the existing precipitation-related parameterization schemes for numerical precipitation estimation. We train the model to learn precipitation-related dynamical features from the surrounding dynamical fields by optimizing a hierarchical set of spatial convolution kernels. We test the model at 14 geogrid points across the contiguous United States. Results show that provided with enough data, precipitation estimates from the convolutional neural network model outperform the reanalysis precipitation products, as well as SD products using linear regression, nearest neighbor, random forest, or fully connected deep neural network. Evaluation for the test set suggests that the improvements can be seamlessly transferred to numerical weather modeling for improving precipitation prediction. Based on the default network, we examine the impact of the network architectures on model performance. Also, we offer simple visualization and analyzing approaches to interpret the models and their results. Our study contributes to the following two aspects: First, we offer a novel approach to enhance numerical precipitation estimation; second, the proposed model provides important implications for improving precipitation-related parameterization schemes using a data-driven approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

Software and Algorithms for Biomedical Image Data Processing and Visualization

A new software equipped with novel image processing algorithms and graphical-user-interface (GUI) tools has been designed for automated analysis and processing of large amounts of biomedical image data. The software, called PlaqTrak, has been specifically used for analysis of plaque on teeth of patients. New algorithms have been developed and implemented to segment teeth of interest from surrounding gum, and a real-time image-based morphing procedure is used to automatically overlay a grid onto each segmented tooth. Pattern recognition methods are used to classify plaque from surrounding gum and enamel, while ignoring glare effects due to the reflection of camera light and ambient light from enamel regions. The PlaqTrak system integrates these components into a single software suite with an easy-to-use GUI (see Figure 1) that allows users to do an end-to-end run of a patient s record, including tooth segmentation of all teeth, grid morphing of each segmented tooth, and plaque classification of each tooth image. The automated and accurate processing of the captured images to segment each tooth [see Figure 2(a)] and then detect plaque on a tooth-by-tooth basis is a critical component of the PlaqTrak system to do clinical trials and analysis with minimal human intervention. These features offer distinct advantages over other competing systems that analyze groups of teeth or synthetic teeth. PlaqTrak divides each segmented tooth into eight regions using an advanced graphics morphing procedure [see results on a chipped tooth in Figure 2(b)], and a pattern recognition classifier is then used to locate plaque [red regions in Figure 2(d)] and enamel regions. The morphing allows analysis within regions of teeth, thereby facilitating detailed statistical analysis such as the amount of plaque present on the biting surfaces on teeth. This software system is applicable to a host of biomedical applications, such as cell analysis and life detection, or robotic applications, such as product inspection or assembly of parts in space and industry.

Talukder, Ashit↗

DOE OSTI2018

Imaging in Diagnostic Nuclear Medicine

Single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and positron emission tomography (PET) are modern methods for visualization in diagnostic nuclear medicine. SPECT is known as a workhorse in cardiology, and PET is the gold standard in oncology. The development of nuclear medicine is provided by cooperation of physicists, mathematicians, biologists, medical doctors, and radio-chemists. In spite of extensive clinical applications, several problems may lead to false diagnoses. In particular, the correction of attenuation of gamma radiation in human organs must be taken into account. For interpretation and evaluation of such an effect on the clinical results, we perform physico-mathematical simulation of the SPECT diagnostics in cardiology in the absence and presence of the correction of attenuation. A brief review of the state-of-the art is presented. The simulation employs the first Russian anthropomorphic mathematical phantom that describes the distribution of radio-pharmacological agent ({sup 99m }Tc-methoxyisobutylisonitrile) in chest organs of a typical male patient. A model for calculation of raw images is developed with allowance for attenuation of radiation in biological tissues and the effect of collimator and detector. The results of the proposed models and calculated images are compared with clinical images obtained at the Meshalkin Institute of Circulation Pathology (Novosibirsk) and Myasnikov Institute of Clinical Cardiology (Moscow). Statistical algorithms are developed for the solution of the inverse problem of image reconstruction based on the entropy principle. The clinical and physico-mathematical approaches are compared in the evaluation of the effect of correction on the quality of reconstructed images of the left ventricle of myocardium.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

NASA NTRS2009

An Analysis of Rocket Propulsion Testing Costs

The primary mission at NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) is rocket propulsion testing. Such testing is generally performed within two arenas: (1) Production testing for certification and acceptance, and (2) Developmental testing for prototype or experimental purposes. The customer base consists of NASA programs, DOD programs, and commercial programs. Resources in place to perform on-site testing include both civil servants and contractor personnel, hardware and software including data acquisition and control, and 6 test stands with a total of 14 test positions/cells. For several business reasons there is the need to augment understanding of the test costs for all the various types of test campaigns. Historical propulsion test data was evaluated and analyzed in many different ways with the intent to find any correlation or statistics that could help produce more reliable and accurate cost estimates and projections. The analytical efforts included timeline trends, statistical curve fitting, average cost per test, cost per test second, test cost timeline, and test cost envelopes. Further, the analytical effort includes examining the test cost from the perspective of thrust level and test article characteristics. Some of the analytical approaches did not produce evidence strong enough for further analysis. Some other analytical approaches yield promising results and are candidates for further development and focused study. Information was organized for into its elements: a Project Profile, Test Cost Timeline, and Cost Envelope. The Project Profile is a snap shot of the project life cycle on a timeline fashion, which includes various statistical analyses. The Test Cost Timeline shows the cumulative average test cost, for each project, at each month where there was test activity. The Test Cost Envelope shows a range of cost for a given number of test(s). The supporting information upon which this study was performed came from diverse sources and thus it was necessary to build several intermediate databases in order to understand, validate, and manipulate data. These intermediate databases (validated historical account of schedule, test activity, and cost) by themselves are of great value and utility. For example, for the Project Profile, we were able to merged schedule, cost, and test activity. This kind of historical account conveys important information about sequence of events, lead time, and opportunities for improvement in future propulsion test projects. The Product Requirement Document (PRD) file is a collection of data extracted from each project PRD (technical characteristics, test requirements, and projection of cost, schedule, and test activity). This information could help expedite the development of future PRD (or equivalent document) on similar projects, and could also, when compared to the actual results, help improve projections around cost and schedule. Also, this file can be sorted by the parameter of interest to perform a visual review of potential common themes or trends. The process of searching, collecting, and validating propulsion test data encountered a lot of difficulties which then led to a set of recommendations for improvement in order to facilitate future data gathering and analysis.

Ramirez-Pagan, Carmen P.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Differences in Pre and Post Vascular Patterning Within Retinas from ISS Crew Members and Head-Down Tilt (HDT) Subjects by VESGEN Analysis

Accelerated research by NASA has investigated the significant risks incurred during long-duration missions in microgravity for Space Flight-Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome (SANS, formerly known as Visual Impairments associated with Increased Intracranial Pressure, VIIP) [1]. For our study, NASA's VESsel GENeration Analysis (VESGEN) was used to investigate the role of retinal blood vessels in the etiology of SANS/VIIP. The response of retinal vessels to microgravity was evaluated in astronaut crew members pre and post flight to the International Space Station (ISS), and compared to the response of retinal vessels in healthy volunteers to 6deg head-down tilt during 70 days of bed rest (HDTBR). For the study, we are testing the hypothesis that long-term cephalad fluid shifts resulting in ocular and visual impairments are necessarily mediated in part by retinal blood vessels, and therefore are accompanied by structural adaptations of the vessels. METHODS: Vascular patterns in the retinas of crew members and HDTBR subjects extracted from 30deg infrared (IR) Heidelberg Spectralis images collected pre/postflight and pre/post HDTBR, respectively, were analyzed by VESGEN (patent pending). VESGEN is a mature, automated software developed as a research discovery tool for progressive vascular diseases in the retina and other tissues. The multi-parametric VESGEN analysis generates maps of branching arterial and venous trees quantified by parameters such as the fractal dimension (Df, a modern measure of vascular space-filling capacity), vessel diameters, and densities of vessel length and number classified into specific branching generations according to vascular physiological branching rules. The retrospective study approved by NASA's Institutional Review Board included the analysis of bilateral retinas in eight ISS crew members monitored by routine occupational surveillance and six HDTBR subjects (NASA FARU Campaign 11, for example). The VESGEN analysis was conducted in a blinded fashion, with IR retinal images masked to the subject's identity, ophthalmic and clinical characteristics, and to the temporal sequence of image collection. To complete our study, VESGEN results will be analyzed statistically and correlated with other ophthalmic and medical findings. RESULTS: Preliminary results for changes in the pre to post status of vascular patterning in the retinas of crew members and HDTBR subjects are interestingly opposite. By Df and other vascular branching measures, the space-filling capacity of arterial and venous trees decreased in the majority of crew members (11/16 retinas). In contrast, vascular densities increased in HDTBR subjects by the same parameters (6/10 retinas). To conclude the study, biostatistics and medical analyses will be conducted to quantify and draw conclusions about how the changes associated with flight compare to those associated with HDTBR. CONCLUSIONS: Vascular densities appeared to decrease in the retinas of ISS crew members and increase in HDTBR subjects. Differences in arterial and venous response to cephalad fluid shifts induced by ISS and HDTBR may have resulted from a long-duration conditioning phenomenon (for example, 6-month ISS missions compared to 70 days HDTBR), or the presence of gravity in HDTBR compared to microgravity on the ISS. In addition, increased and decreased vessel diameters for Crew Members and HDTBR, respectively, are subject to limits of im

Vascular↗

DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Validation of Multiple Related Data Sets—Case Study Using Interstellar Boundary Explorer Satellite Data

Abstract Space scientists often face the question of whether data collected by different instruments are measurements of the same source population. This paper proposes a statistical validation method for evaluating the agreement between such related data sets. It offers a detailed case study focused on validating a new data set from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission, which serves as a practical how-to guide for similar analyses. Since 2008, the IBEX satellite has been gathering data on heliospheric energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) while being exposed to various sources of background noise, such as cosmic rays and solar energetic particles. The IBEX mission initially released only a qualified triple-coincidence (qABC) data product, which was designed to provide observations of ENAs free of background contamination. Further measurements revealed that the qABC data were in fact susceptible to contamination, having relatively low ENA counts and high background rates. To mitigate this issue, the mission team recently considered releasing a certain qualified double-coincidence (qBC) data product, which has roughly twice the detection rate of the qABC data product. This paper presents a simulation-based validation of the new qBC data product against the already-released qABC data product. The results show that the qBCs can plausibly be said to be measuring the same source population as the qABCs up to an average absolute deviation of 3.6%. Visual diagnostics provide additional confirmation of source rate coherence across data products. The framework introduced here is general and can be applied to other validation problems both within and outside the field of space physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2013

EXPLORING THE VARIABLE SKY WITH LINEAR. III. CLASSIFICATION OF PERIODIC LIGHT CURVES

We describe the construction of a highly reliable sample of ∼7000 optically faint periodic variable stars with light curves obtained by the asteroid survey LINEAR across 10,000 deg{sup 2} of the northern sky. The majority of these variables have not been cataloged yet. The sample flux limit is several magnitudes fainter than most other wide-angle surveys; the photometric errors range from ∼0.03 mag at r = 15 to ∼0.20 mag at r = 18. Light curves include on average 250 data points, collected over about a decade. Using Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) based photometric recalibration of the LINEAR data for about 25 million objects, we selected ∼200,000 most probable candidate variables with r < 17 and visually confirmed and classified ∼7000 periodic variables using phased light curves. The reliability and uniformity of visual classification across eight human classifiers was calibrated and tested using a catalog of variable stars from the SDSS Stripe 82 region and verified using an unsupervised machine learning approach. The resulting sample of periodic LINEAR variables is dominated by 3900 RR Lyrae stars and 2700 eclipsing binary stars of all subtypes and includes small fractions of relatively rare populations such as asymptotic giant branch stars and SX Phoenicis stars. We discuss the distribution of these mostly uncataloged variables in various diagrams constructed with optical-to-infrared SDSS, Two Micron All Sky Survey, and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer photometry, and with LINEAR light-curve features. We find that the combination of light-curve features and colors enables classification schemes much more powerful than when colors or light curves are each used separately. An interesting side result is a robust and precise quantitative description of a strong correlation between the light-curve period and color/spectral type for close and contact eclipsing binary stars (β Lyrae and W UMa): as the color-based spectral type varies from K4 to F5, the median period increases from 5.9 hr to 8.8 hr. These large samples of robustly classified variable stars will enable detailed statistical studies of the Galactic structure and physics of binary and other stars and we make these samples publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Batch Effect Correction Methods for NASA GeneLab Transcriptomic Datasets

RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data from space biology experiments promise to yield invaluable insights into the effects of spaceflight on terrestrial biology. However, sample numbers from each study are low due to limited crew availability, hardware, and space. To increase statistical power, spaceflight RNA-seq datasets from different missions are often aggregated together. However, this can introduce technical variation or "batch effects", often due to differences in sample handling, sample processing, and sequencing platforms. Several computational methods have been developed to correct for technical batch effects, thereby reducing their impact on true biological signals. In this study, we combined 7 mouse liver RNA-seq datasets from NASA GeneLab (part of the NASA Open Science Data Repository) to evaluate several common batch effect correction methods (ComBat and ComBat-seq from the sva R package, and Median Polish, Empirical Bayes, and ANOVA from the MBatch R package). We quantitatively evaluated the ability of these methods to correct for technical batch variables in space biology RNA-seq data using the following criteria: BatchQC, principal component analysis, dispersion separability criterion, log fold change correlation, and differential gene expression analysis. Each batch variable / correction method combination was then assessed using a custom scoring approach to identify the optimal correction method for the combined dataset, by geometrically probing the space of all allowable scoring functions to yield an aggregate volume-based scoring measure. Finally, we describe the way in which the GeneLab multi-study analysis and visualization portal will allow users to examine the presence or absence of batch effects using multiple metrics. If the user chooses to perform batch effect correction, the scoring approach described here can be implemented to identify the optimal correction method to use for their specific combined dataset prior to analysis.

Lauren M. Sanders↗

NASA NTRS2024

Flight Mechanics Modeling and Simulation of the Earth Entry System

Introduction: The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign being planned by NASA and ESA has the ambitious goal to return Mars samples back to Earth. This international collaboration had developed a concept of operations that included a ESA-designed Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) and NASA-designed Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS). The Earth Entry System (EES), consisting of a protective aeroshell that houses the samples as well as sample containment vessels, would conduct entry, descent, and landing (EDL) on a direct Earth trajectory. The EES would enter on a spin-stabilized ballistic trajectory with the goal to passively achieve aerodynamic stability throughout all regions of flight. The EDL sequence would end with the EES impacting the soft playa soil of the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). As of the submission of this abstract, the MSR campaign is undergoing a re-architecture leading to a pause in EES development. However, the novel approaches developed in flight mechanics modeling and simulation can significantly benefit the greater IPPW community in the development of Earth return vehicles. This paper will present the latest state of EES flight mechanics modeling and simulation. The paper will highlight the simulation architecture developed and key lessons learned from understanding of EDL trajectory sensitivities. Modeling and Simulation: Figure 1 provides a high-level concept of operations for the approach, entry, descent, and landing (AEDL) phase of the CCRS-portion of MSR. The objective of EES flight mechanics is to model and simulate the EES trajectory from ERO separation to ground impact at UTTR. A variety of flight mechanics simulation models were utilized to model both exo-atmopsheric and atmospheric portions of flight. 42, a 6-DOF simulation developed at Goddard Space Flight Center, is utilized for propagating the attitude of EES during exo-atmospheric flight. 42 allows for a variety of spin eject mechanism scenarios to be simulated for analysis. 10 minutes prior to entry, the 42 states are handed off to the EDL sims. The prime EDL sim utilized by EES is the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2), a 6-DOF sim developed at Langley Research Center, and the independent verification and validation EDL sim utilized is DSENDS, a 6-DOF sim developed at Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Figure 2 provides a visualization of the flight mechanics simulation model flow through various points in the AEDL phase. Due to the existence of a variety of sim models, the EES flight mechanics team developed processes for data hand-off. These processes included the development of a centralized coordinate frame document, utilization of a single, centralized simulation input document for all sims to reference, and hand-off files containing both the technical data to be ingested by other flight mechanics sims as well as annotations of modeling assumptions utilized to generate the data. Figure~\ref{fig:post2simarchitecture} provides an overview of the POST2 sim architecture wherein POST2 ingests numerous subsystem models and input files. The dispersed state file generated by MONTE provides the position/velocity state of the trajectory while the 42 Handoff file provides the attitude. The aerodynamics database, delivered by the EES aeroscience team, is utilized to simulate the aerodynamic forces and moments experienced during EDL. A custom atmosphere model, developed by EES atmosphere team, is utilized to simulate the anticipated atmosphere environment around the region of Earth through which the EES trajectory flys. These inputs and subsystem models can be varied depending on the AEDL flight mechanics scenario being simulated. Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to generate statistical AEDL performance metrics in the form of scorecards and violin plots. Furthermore, outputs from the POST2 simulation are utilized for follow-on analyses including aerothermal and landing performance. \section{Flight Mechanics Lessons Learned} Though the EES flight mechanics team uncovered a variety of lessons learned through the analysis conducted to support CCRS through preliminary design review, this paper will highlight the most important lessons. A key AEDL performance goal is to ensure the landing footprint of EES remains on the UTTR south range. A common modeling strategy used in EDL analysis is One-Variable-At-a-Time (OVAT). OVAT analysis provides insight into the key drivers that affect AEDL performance metrics. Figure 3 shows the landing ellipses for single dispersion sources as compared to the baseline aggregate of all dispersions. The figure shows that atmosphere winds alone dominate the size of the footprint ellipse (note: EES does not use a parachute unlike previous Earth-return missions and is in wind-driven free fall for ~5min). The significance of the wind led the EES flight mechanics team to pursue the development of a Custom Atmosphere Model [4], in lieu of EarthGRAM [1], built on actual radiosonde wind measurements around the UTTR-region. This decision was driven by the realism in the generated footprint ellipses and lessons-learned from Stardust [5]. These findings will be invaluable for future Earth-return missions in providing an early understanding of the key drivers affecting footprint size and modeling considerations for which to account. Another lesson learned is tied to the AEDL performance goal of achieving passive stability throughout all regions of flight. It is well understood that blunt-body aeroshells are less stable as they transition from supersonic to subsonic. Eliminating a backshell does help improvestability; however, other phenomena such as roll-induced instability during terminal descent can still arise. The EES flight mechanics team developed stability metrics as tools to better understand the causes of and better predict the onset of dynamic instability. These tools were built upon analytical models developed by Jaffe [3] and Murphy [2]. The tools were shown to both be very accurate in correlation with actual unstable cases and useful in developing stability margin policies based on the vehicle design and simulation considerations (e.g. sphere-cone angle change, mass change, wind turbulence). These tools allowed for the current EES design to demonstrate the ability to achieve passive stability and can be an invaluable tool for consideration in the design of parachute-less Earth-return vehicles.

Rohan Deshmukh↗

NASA NTRS2010

Solar Radiation Transport in the Cloudy Atmosphere: A 3D Perspective on Observations and Climate Impacts

The interplay of sunlight with clouds is a ubiquitous and often pleasant visual experience, but it conjures up major challenges for weather, climate, environmental science and beyond. Those engaged in the characterization of clouds (and the clear air nearby) by remote sensing methods are even more confronted. The problem comes, on the one hand, from the spatial complexity of real clouds and, on the other hand, from the dominance of multiple scattering in the radiation transport. The former ingredient contrasts sharply with the still popular representation of clouds as homogeneous plane-parallel slabs for the purposes of radiative transfer computations. In typical cloud scenes the opposite asymptotic transport regimes of diffusion and ballistic propagation coexist. We survey the three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric radiative transfer literature over the past 50 years and identify three concurrent and intertwining thrusts: first, how to assess the damage (bias) caused by 3D effects in the operational 1D radiative transfer models? Second, how to mitigate this damage? Finally, can we exploit 3D radiative transfer phenomena to innovate observation methods and technologies? We quickly realize that the smallest scale resolved computationally or observationally may be artificial but is nonetheless a key quantity that separates the 3D radiative transfer solutions into two broad and complementary classes: stochastic and deterministic. Both approaches draw on classic and contemporary statistical, mathematical and computational physics.

Davis, Anthony B.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for Space Shuttle landings. As defined in the Shuttle Flight Rules (FRs), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMTJ) developed a personal computer based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak-wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center. However, the shuttle must land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at Kennedy Space Center in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested that a similar tool be developed for EAFB. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) personnel archived and performed quality control of 2-minute average and 10-minute peak wind speeds at each tower adjacent to the main runway at EAFB from 1997- 2004. They calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of average peak wind occurrence based on the average speed. The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and were stratified by hour, direction, and direction/hour. For the probabilities of peak wind occurrence, MSFC calculated empirical and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10-minute peak wind speeds using probability density functions. The AMU obtained and reformatted the data into Microsoft Excel PivotTables, which allows users to display different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUT was then created from the PivotTables using Visual Basic for Applications code. The GUI is run through a macro within Microsoft Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and likelihoods in a fast-paced operational environment. A summary of how the peak wind climatologies and probabilities were created and an overview of the GUT will be presented.

Dreher, Joseph↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Cognition Battery: Developing a Normative Database for Spaceflight and Examining the Impact of Prolonged Isolation and Confinement on Cognitive Performance

INTRODUCTION: Astronauts on future long duration space exploration will be required to execute complex tasks in which even minor errors could have devastating consequences. Intact cognition is critical to maintain exceptional performance standards and it is possible that variability even at the highest ends of the performance spectrum will impact operational tasks. Exposure to spaceflight hazards could compromise cognitive performance, and decrements have been documented under conditions of altered gravity and radiation exposure. The cognitive impacts of prolonged isolation and confinement remain relatively unknown. Traditional neuropsychological assessments cannot support earth independent monitoring, do not have normative comparisons for high functioning individuals, and most are not sensitive enough to detect small performance decrements. The Cognition Battery was developed to address these limitations but currently lacks comprehensive normative data. In this project, we aimed to 1) develop a preliminary normative database for astronauts and astronaut surrogates using the Cognition Battery, and 2) characterize differences in cognitive performance after short and long duration analog missions. PARTICIPANTS & METHODS: We assessed baseline cognitive performance by administering the Cognition Battery to 97 astronaut and astronaut surrogates recruited to approximate astronaut demographics (mean age: 39.38, SD=7.62; 35.1% female; 91.7% advanced degrees). For aim 1, we calculated speed and accuracy outcomes for each subtest and summarized the data with descriptive statistics. We examined the relationship between age and performance with Pearsons’s correlations and the relationship between gender and performance with independent samples t-tests. A subset of individuals on short duration (n=48; mean age: 38.18, SD=7.14; 37.5% female; 91.7% advanced degrees) missions of 45 days and long duration (n=34; mean age: 42.12, SD=8.39; 38.2% female; 94.1% advanced degrees) missions ranging from 4-8 months were administered the Cognition Battery during and after their respective missions. For aim 2, we accounted for practice effects using published corrections, and z-transformed post-mission scores using the full sample’s baseline scores. One-way analysis of covariance tests determined the main effect of analog duration on post-mission performance, after accounting for age and gender. The False Discovery Rate method was applied to adjust for multiple comparisons. RESULTS: In the full normative sample, older age was associated with slower reaction times on a processing speed task (r=.39, p=.02), and men were more accurate on processing speed (t=-2.19, p=.03) and faster on sustained attention (t=2.02, p=.049) and risk-taking tasks (t=2.49, p=.02). We observed a main effect of duration on performance on tasks of visual memory (f(1)=5.62, p=.04), processing speed (f(1)=5.48, p=.03), and sensorimotor functioning (f(1)=39.52, p < .001), such that slower performance was observed after long duration missions relative to short. Only sensorimotor functioning was significant after adjustments for multiple comparisons (adjusted p<.001). DISCUSSION: The full sample represents the largest dataset of cognitive performance assessed by the Cognition Battery available and can be used for further research in spaceflight and high-performance populations. Relationships between performance and key demographic variables suggest future research that include age and gender stratification is needed. Our results also show minimal changes in cognitive performance between longer and shorter periods of isolation and confinement.

S I Dev↗