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DOE OSTI2018

A Modeling Study of Direct and Indirect N 2 O Emissions From a Representative Catchment in the U.S. Corn Belt

Indirect nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from drainage ditches and headwater streams are poorly constrained. Few studies have monitored stream N 2 O emissions and fewer modeling studies have been conducted to simulate stream N 2 O emissions. Here, we determined direct and indirect N 2 O emission modules and a corresponding calibration module for use in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, and implemented the expanded SWAT model (termed SWAT-N 2 O) to a representative fourth-stream-order catchment (210 km 2 ) and six first-order stream catchments (0.22–1.83 km 2 ) in southeastern Minnesota. We simulated the spatial and temporal fluctuations of the indirect emissions from streams, identified emission “hot spots” and “hot moments,” and diagnosed the correlations between direct and indirect emissions. We demonstrated that zero-order streams and first-order streams could contribute 0.034–0.066 and 0.011 nmol N 2 O m –2 s –1 (expressed on the basis of unit catchment area) to the total surface emissions, respectively. Emissions from zero-order and first-order streams equal 24–41% of direct emissions from soil, which may explain the emission gap between calculations using top-down and bottom-up methods. Clear spatial patterns were identified for both direct and indirect emissions and their spatial variations were negatively correlated. Our results indicate that the IPCC N 2 O emission factor for streams in the Corn Belt should be increased by 3.2–5.7 times. Increasing precipitation and streamflow in the Corn Belt may potentially increase frequencies of soil anoxic conditions and nitrate leaching to streams, and subsequently increase N 2 O emissions from both soils and streams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Relativistic electron precipitation events driven by electromagnetic ion-cyclotron waves

We adopt a canonical approach to describe the stochastic motion of relativistic belt electrons and their scattering into the loss cone by nonlinear EMIC waves. The estimated rate of scattering is sufficient to account for the rate and intensity of bursty electron precipitation. This interaction is shown to result in particle scattering into the loss cone, forming ∼10 s microbursts of precipitating electrons. These dynamics can account for the statistical correlations between processes of energization, pitch angle scattering, and relativistic electron precipitation events, that are manifested on large temporal scales of the order of the diffusion time ∼tens of minutes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

On analysis and stochastic modeling of the particle kinetic energy equation in particle-laden isotropic turbulent flows

In this study, we analyze three-dimensional particle-laden, isotropic turbulence to develop an understanding of inertial particle dynamics from a kinetic energy perspective. Data trends implying inhomogeneous sampling of the flow by particles are identified and used to support a proposed particle behavior: particles appear to accumulate in regions of low flow kinetic energy over time because they lose kinetic energy and slow down in such regions, ultimately causing them to spend more time there. To elucidate this behavior, we derive a particle kinetic energy equation from the particle momentum equation, which incorporates inertial effects through the Schiller–Naumann drag correlation. Upon extracting fundamental physics from this equation, hypotheses regarding the role of the Stokes number in the temporal change of particle kinetic energy and the previously proposed particle behavior are evaluated using simulation data considering three Stokes numbers. Finally, a Fokker–Planck equation is used to derive the steady-state probability density function of the particle kinetic energy. The model fits the simulation data well and provides a tool for further investigation into understanding preferential concentration, as well as a reduced order model for predicting particle kinetic energy in turbulent flows.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling stimulated Brillouin backscatter from outer-cone quads across multiple inertial confinement fusion hohlraum designs

Stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS) is a potential risk for laser damage in the experiments carried out at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), and by altering the energy deposition pattern in hohlraums, it affects the symmetry of indirect-drive inertial confinement fusion implosions. We have surveyed backward SBS on outer-cone quads across NIF integrated hohlraums of various platforms numerically, using three-dimensional (3D) simulations with the backscatter code pF3D [Berger et al. Phys. Plasmas 5, 4337 (1998)] and ray-based gain calculations. Simulated reflected powers and energies, as well as the spectrum of reflected light all compare favorably with measurements. Ray-based calculations of exponential SBS amplification (“gain”), which assume a strongly damped plasma wave and steady-state response, are performed using a novel method that includes the 3D speckled field of the laser that drives SBS. This approach is useful for understanding qualitative differences between hohlraum designs and identifying regions susceptible to SBS within hohlraums. Quantitatively, gains are not found to correlate with SBS reflectivities in 3D, necessitating fully wave-based calculations that naturally include diffraction and various temporal dependencies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1978

Earth Radiation Budget Science, 1978

An earth radiation budget satellite system planned in order to understand climate on various temporal and spatial scales is considered. Topics discussed include: climate modeling, climate diagnostics, radiation modeling, radiation variability and correlation studies, cloudiness and the radiation budget, and radiation budget and related measurements in 1985 and beyond.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2008

Passive and Active L-Band System and Observations During the 2007 CLASIC Campaign

This article describes the upgraded PALS instrument and the characteristics of data acquired from the Cloud Land Atmospheric Interaction Campaign (CLASIC) 2007. The data acquired over lake passes were used to remove the radiometer calibration bias. The calibrated radiometer data showed significant consistency with the L-band land emission model for soil surfaces published in the literature. We observed significant temporal (days) changes of a few dB in the radar data. The change of radar backscatter appeared to correlate well with the change of in-situ soil moisture or the soil moisture data derived from the PALS dual-polarized brightness temperatures. The radar vegetation index also correlated well with the vegetation opacity estimated from the radiometer data. The preliminary analyses suggest complementary information contained in the surface emissivity and backscatter signatures for the retrieval of soil moisture and vegetation water content.

Soil moisture↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Method for Snow Reanalysis: The Sierra Nevada (USA) Example

This work presents a state-of-the art methodology for constructing snow water equivalent (SWE) reanalysis. The method is comprised of two main components: (1) a coupled land surface model and snow depletion curve model, which is used to generate an ensemble of predictions of SWE and snow cover area for a given set of (uncertain) inputs, and (2) a reanalysis step, which updates estimation variables to be consistent with the satellite observed depletion of the fractional snow cover time series. This method was applied over the Sierra Nevada (USA) based on the assimilation of remotely sensed fractional snow covered area data from the Landsat 5-8 record (1985-2016). The verified dataset (based on a comparison with over 9000 station years of in situ data) exhibited mean and root-mean-square errors less than 3 and 13 cm, respectively, and correlation greater than 0.95 compared with in situ SWE observations. The method (fully Bayesian), resolution (daily, 90-meter), temporal extent (31 years), and accuracy provide a unique dataset for investigating snow processes. This presentation illustrates how the reanalysis dataset was used to provide a basic accounting of the stored snowpack water in the Sierra Nevada over the last 31 years and ultimately improve real-time streamflow predictions.

Bayesian↗

NASA NTRS2018

Estimation of Seasonal Snow Water Equivalent Using Landsat Observations

This work presents a methodology for estimating seasonal snow water equivalent (SWE) from the use of remotely sensed Visible and Near Infrared observations from the Landsat mission. The method is comprised of two main components: (1) a coupled land surface model and snow depletion curve model, which is used to generate an ensemble of predictions of SWE and snow cover area for a given set of (uncertain) inputs, and (2) a reanalysis step, which updates estimation variables to be consistent with the satellite observed depletion of the fractional snow cover time series. This method was applied over the Sierra Nevada (USA) based on the assimilation of remotely sensed fractional snow covered area data over the Landsat 5-8 record (1985-2016). The verified dataset (based on a comparison with over 9000 station years of in situ data) exhibited mean and root-mean-square errors less than 3 and 13 cm, respectively, and correlations with in situ SWE observations of greater than 0.95. The method (fully Bayesian), resolution (daily, 90-meter), temporal extent (32 years), and accuracy provide a unique dataset for investigating snow processes. In particular, this presentation illustrates how the reanalysis dataset was used to provide climatology of the seasonal snowfall accumulation rates, distributions, and variability over the last three decades.

SWE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Good and proper: self-similarity of N -body simulations with proper force softening

ABSTRACT Analysis of self-similarity in scale-free N-body simulations reveals the spatial and temporal scales for which statistics measured in cosmological simulations are converged to the physical continuum limit. We examine how the range of scales in which the two-point correlation function is converged depends on the force softening length and whether it is held constant in comoving or proper coordinates. We find that a proper softening that reaches roughly 1/30th of the inter-particle spacing by the end of the simulation resolves the same spatial and temporal scales as a comoving softening of the same length while using a third fewer time-steps, for a range of scale factors typical to Lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) simulations. We additionally infer an inherent resolution limit, set by the particle mass and scaling as a−1/2, beyond which reducing the softening does not improve the resolution. We postulate a mapping of these results with spectral index n = −2 to ΛCDM simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Theoretical analysis on the measurement errors of local 2D DIC: Part I temporal and spatial uncertainty quantification of displacement measurements

This study presents a theoretical uncertainty quantification of displacement measurements by subset-based 2D-digital image correlation. A generalized solution to estimate the random error of displacement measurement is presented. The obtained solution suggests that the random error of displacement measurements is determined by the image noise, the summation of the intensity gradient in a subset, the subpixel part of displacement, and the interpolation scheme. The proposed method is validated with virtual digital image correlation tests.

2D-DIC↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-14: Dosimetric Impacts of Various Uncertainties in Cervical Cancer HDR Brachytherapy: Are Conventional Point Doses Good Surrogates for 3D Dosimetry?

Purpose: In the context of evaluating dosimetric impacts of a variety of uncertainties involved in HDR Tandem-and-Ovoid treatment, to study the correlations between conventional point doses and 3D volumetric doses. Methods: For 5 cervical cancer patients treated with HDR T&O, 150 plans were retrospectively created to study dosimetric impacts of the following uncertainties: (1) inter-fractional applicator displacement between two treatment fractions within a single insertion by applying Fraction#1 plan to Fraction#2 CT; (2) positional dwell error simulated from −5mm to 5mm in 1mm steps; (3) simulated temporal dwell error of 0.05s, 0.1s, 0.5s, and 1s. The original plans were based on point dose prescription, from which the volume covered by the prescription dose was generated as the pseudo target volume to study the 3D target dose effect. OARs were contoured. The point and volumetric dose errors were calculated by taking the differences between original and simulated plans. The correlations between the point and volumetric dose errors were analyzed. Results: For the most clinically relevant positional dwell uncertainty of 1mm, temporal uncertainty of 0.05s, and inter-fractional applicator displacement within the same insertion, the mean target D90 and V100 deviation were within 1%. Among these uncertainties, the applicator displacement showed the largest potential target coverage impact (2.6% on D90) as well as the OAR dose impact (2.5% and 3.4% on bladder D2cc and rectum D2cc). The Spearman correlation analysis shows a correlation coefficient of 0.43 with a p-value of 0.11 between target D90 coverage and H point dose. Conclusion: With the most clinically relevant positional and temporal dwell uncertainties and patient interfractional applicator displacement within the same insertion, the dose error is within clinical acceptable range. The lack of correlation between H point and 3D volumetric dose errors is a motivator for the use of 3D treatment planning in cervical HDR brachytherapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Dynamic PET Measures of Tau Accumulation in Cognitively Normal Older Adults and Alzheimer’s Disease Patients Measured Using [18F] THK-5351

Background [ 18F]THK5351, a recently-developed positron emission tomography (PET) tracer for measuring tau neurofibrillary tangle accumulation, may help researchers examine aging, disease, and tau pathology in living human brains. We examined THK5351 tracer pharmacokinetics to define an optimal acquisition time for static late images. Methods Primary measurements were calculation of regional values of distribution volume ratios (DVR) and standardized uptake value ratios (SUVR) in 6 healthy older control and 10 Alzheimer’s disease (AD) participants. We examined associations between DVR and SUVR, searching for a 20 min SUVR time window that was stable and comparable to DVR. We additionally examined diagnostic group differences in this 20 min SUVR. Results In healthy controls, [18F]THK5351 uptake was low, with increased temporal relative to frontal binding. In AD, regional uptake was substantially higher than in healthy controls, with temporal exceeding frontal binding. Retention in cerebellar gray matter, which was used as the reference region, was low compared to other regions. Both DVR and SUVR values showed minimal change over time after 40 min. SUVR 20–40, 30–50, and 40–60 min were most consistently correlated with DVR; SUVR 40–60 min, the most stable time window, was used in further analyses. Significant (AD > healthy control) group differences existed in temporoparietal regions, with marginal medial temporal differences. We found high basal ganglia SUVR 40–60 min signal, with no group differences. Conclusions We examined THK5351, a new PET tracer for measuring tau accumulation, and compared multiple analysis methods for quantifying regional tracer uptake. SUVR 40–60 min performed optimally when examining 20 min SUVR windows, and appears to be a practical method for quantifying relative regional tracer retention. The results of this study offer clinical potential, given the usefulness of THK5351-PET as a biomarker of tau pathology in aging and disease.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1976

Initial results from the High Altitude Observatory white light coronagraph on Skylab - A progress report

Frequent periodic observations by the white-light coronagraph allow an examination of coronal variations over a broad range of temporal scales. Examples of the slowest and most rapid variations are presented. An example of extremely slow coronal variations is the gradual evolution - to a large equatorial streamer - in association with a marked decrease in solar activity, as the total magnetic flux in one hemisphere decreased. Another example is given of a long-lived quasi-stable coronal streamer, apparently associated with a stable filament channel; comparison of this streamer with coronal potential-magnetic-field computations show little correlation. Some results on coronal transients - the most rapid variations observed - are summarized. Characteristic masses and energies involved in mass-ejection transients, their temporal and spatial distributions, their associations with surface phenomena and possible interplanetary signatures, and their role in coronal evolution are briefly noted.

Macqueen, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The correlation of coronal mass ejections with energetic flare proton events

Proton events of energies of at least 4 MeV presumed due to solar flares are compared with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed with an orbiting coronagraph. H alpha flares are associated with 27 of the 50 flare proton events of the study. Each of these 27 flares is then associated temporally and spatially with a CME, confirming the earlier conclusion, based on Skylab data, that a CME may be a necessary condition for a flare proton event. Peak 4-22 MeV proton fluxes correlate with both the speeds and the angular sizes of the associated CMEs. CMEs of larger angular sizes are more likely to be loops or fans rather than jets or spikes and are more likely to intersect the ecliptic.

Kahler, S. W.↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Big Data Analytics Framework for HPC Log Data: Three Case Studies Using the Titan Supercomputer Log

Reliability, availability and serviceability (RAS) logs of high performance computing (HPC) resources, when closely investigated in spatial and temporal dimensions, can provide invaluable information regarding system status, performance, and resource utilization. These data are often generated from multiple logging systems and sensors that cover many components of the system. The analysis of these data for finding persistent temporal and spatial insights faces two main difficulties: the volume of RAS logs makes manual inspection difficult and the unstructured nature and unique properties of log data produced by each subsystem adds another dimension of difficulty in identifying implicit correlation among recorded events. To address these issues, we recently developed a multi-user Big Data analytics framework for HPC log data at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This paper introduces three in-progress data analytics projects that leverage this framework to assess system status, mine event patterns, and study correlations between user applications and system events. We describe the motivation of each project and detail their workflows using three years of log data collected from ORNL's Titan supercomputer.

Park, Byung↗

DOE OSTI2022

Oblique and rippled heliosphere structures from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer

Abstract Past analysis has shown that the heliosphere structure can be deduced from correlations between long-scale solar wind pressure evolution and energetic neutral atom emissions. However, this required spatial and temporal averaging that smoothed out small or dynamic features of the heliosphere. In late 2014, the solar wind dynamic pressure increased by roughly 50% over a period of 6 months, causing a time and directional-dependent rise in around 2–6 keV energetic neutral atom fluxes from the heliosphere observed by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer. Here, we use the 2014 pressure enhancement to provide a simultaneous derivation of the three-dimensional heliospheric termination shock (HTS) and heliopause (HP) distances at high resolution from Interstellar Boundary Explorer measurements. The analysis reveals rippled HTS and HP surfaces that are oblique with respect to the local interstellar medium upwind direction, with significant asymmetries in the heliosphere structure compared to steady-state heliosphere models. We estimate that the heliosphere boundaries contain roughly ten astronomical unit-sized spatial variations, with slightly larger variations on the HTS surface than the HP and a large-scale, southwards-directed obliquity of the surfaces in the meridional plane. Comparisons of the derived HTS and HP distances with Voyager observations indicate substantial differences in the heliosphere boundaries in the northern versus southern hemispheres and their motion over time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Joint Resource Modeling and Assessment for Hybrid Distributed Solar and Wind Systems

The inherent variability and uncertainty in distributed energy resources can presents myriad challenges to the planning and operations of power systems. These risks are poised to become larger as the penetration of renewable energy sources rises in the power generation mix. Hybrid solar-wind energy systems are able to mitigate some of these risks by their complementary resource availability. Surface solar and wind fields are coupled and correlated in both space and time. Appropriately estimating the hybrid solar wind energy system requires simulating the spatio-temporal structure of these fields that can be produced for each time horizon. We introduce a novel joint spatio-temporal stochastic differential equation (SPDE) approach that captures the spatio-temporal dynamics of solar and wind fields and their joint dependency over a domain for each time step. In the case study on Colorado, we consider nonstationary three-level hierarchical spatio temporal models for both hourly solar irradiance data and wind speed data in Colorado. Dependence between the solar irradiance data and wind speed data is captured by a shared spatio-temporal random effect. Our approach performs well in terms of the prediction score criterion.

joint modeling↗

DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of the Uncertainty in Satellite-Based Crop State Variable Retrievals Due to Site and Growth Stage Specific Factors and Their Potential in Coupling with Crop Growth Models

Coupling crop growth models and remote sensing provides the potential to improve our understanding of the genotype x environment x management (G × E × M) variability of crop growth on a global scale. Unfortunately, the uncertainty in the relationship between the satellite measurements and the crop state variables across different sites and growth stages makes it difficult to perform the coupling. In this study, we evaluate the effects of this uncertainty with MODIS data at the Mead, Nebraska Ameriflux sites (US-Ne1, US-Ne2, and US-Ne3) and accurate, collocated Hybrid-Maize (HM) simulations of leaf area index (LAI) and canopy light use efficiency (LUE Canopy ). The simulations are used to both explore the sensitivity of the satellite-estimated genotype × management (G × M) parameters to the satellite retrieval regression coefficients and to quantify the amount of uncertainty attributable to site and growth stage specific factors. Additional ground-truth datasets of LAI and LUE Canopy are used to validate the analysis. The results show that uncertainty in the LAI/satellite measurement regression coefficients lead to large uncertainty in the G × M parameters retrievable from satellites. In addition to traditional leave-one-site-out regression analysis, the regression coefficient uncertainty is assessed by evaluating the retrieval performance of the temporal change in LAI and LUE Canopy . The weekly change in LAI is shown to be retrievable with a correlation coefficient absolute value (|r|) of 0.70 and root-mean square error (RMSE) value of 0.4, which is significantly better than the performance expected if the uncertainty was caused by random error rather than secondary effects caused by site and growth stage specific factors (an expected |r| value of 0.36 and RMSE value of 1.46 assuming random error). As a result, this study highlights the importance of accounting for site and growth stage specific factors in remote sensing retrievals for future work developing methods coupling remote sensing with crop growth models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗