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At least 865 records · Page 48

Assessment of NDE reliability data

Twenty sets of relevant nondestructive test (NDT) reliability data were identified, collected, compiled, and categorized. A criterion for the selection of data for statistical analysis considerations was formulated, and a model to grade the quality and validity of the data sets was developed. Data input formats, which record the pertinent parameters of the defect/specimen and inspection procedures, were formulated for each NDE method. A comprehensive computer program was written and debugged to calculate the probability of flaw detection at several confidence limits by the binomial distribution. This program also selects the desired data sets for pooling and tests the statistical pooling criteria before calculating the composite detection reliability. An example of the calculated reliability of crack detection in bolt holes by an automatic eddy current method is presented.

Yee, B. G. W.↗

Evaluation of the Williams-type spring wheat model in North Dakota and Minnesota

The Williams type model, developed similarly to previous models of C.V.D. Williams, uses monthly temperature and precipitation data as well as soil and topological variables to predict the yield of the spring wheat crop. The models are statistically developed using the regression technique. Eight model characteristics are examined in the evaluation of the model. Evaluation is at the crop reporting district level, the state level and for the entire region. A ten year bootstrap test was the basis of the statistical evaluation. The accuracy and current indication of modeled yield reliability could show improvement. There is great variability in the bias measured over the districts, but there is a slight overall positive bias. The model estimates for the east central crop reporting district in Minnesota are not accurate. The estimate of yield for 1974 were inaccurate for all of the models.

Leduc, S.↗

A Numerical Simulation and Statistical Modeling of High Intensity Radiated Fields Experiment Data

Tests are conducted on a quad-redundant fault tolerant flight control computer to establish upset characteristics of an avionics system in an electromagnetic field. A numerical simulation and statistical model are described in this work to analyze the open loop experiment data collected in the reverberation chamber at NASA LaRC as a part of an effort to examine the effects of electromagnetic interference on fly-by-wire aircraft control systems. By comparing thousands of simulation and model outputs, the models that best describe the data are first identified and then a systematic statistical analysis is performed on the data. All of these efforts are combined which culminate in an extrapolation of values that are in turn used to support previous efforts used in evaluating the data.

Smith, Laura J.↗

Test/score/report: Simulation techniques for automating the test process

A Test/Score/Report capability is currently being developed for the Transportable Payload Operations Control Center (TPOCC) Advanced Spacecraft Simulator (TASS) system which will automate testing of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Payload Operations Control Center (POCC) and Mission Operations Center (MOC) software in three areas: telemetry decommutation, spacecraft command processing, and spacecraft memory load and dump processing. Automated computer control of the acceptance test process is one of the primary goals of a test team. With the proper simulation tools and user interface, the task of acceptance testing, regression testing, and repeatability of specific test procedures of a ground data system can be a simpler task. Ideally, the goal for complete automation would be to plug the operational deliverable into the simulator, press the start button, execute the test procedure, accumulate and analyze the data, score the results, and report the results to the test team along with a go/no recommendation to the test team. In practice, this may not be possible because of inadequate test tools, pressures of schedules, limited resources, etc. Most tests are accomplished using a certain degree of automation and test procedures that are labor intensive. This paper discusses some simulation techniques that can improve the automation of the test process. The TASS system tests the POCC/MOC software and provides a score based on the test results. The TASS system displays statistics on the success of the POCC/MOC system processing in each of the three areas as well as event messages pertaining to the Test/Score/Report processing. The TASS system also provides formatted reports documenting each step performed during the tests and the results of each step. A prototype of the Test/Score/Report capability is available and currently being used to test some POCC/MOC software deliveries. When this capability is fully operational it should greatly reduce the time necessary to test a POCC/MOC software delivery, as well as improve the quality of the test process.

Hageman, Barbara H.↗

Novel application of neutrinos to evaluate U.S. nuclear weapons performance

There is a growing realization that neutrinos can be used as a diagnostic tool to better understand the inner workings of a nuclear weapon. Robust estimates demonstrate that an Inverse Beta Decay (IBD) neutrino scintillation detector built at the Nevada Test Site with a 1000-ton active target mass at a standoff distance of 500 m would detect thousands of antineutrino events per nuclear test. This would provide less than 4% statistical error on the measured antineutrino rate and 5% error on antineutrino energy. Extrapolating this to an error on the test device explosive yield requires knowledge from evaluated nuclear databases, non-equilibrium fission rates, and assumptions on internal neutron fluxes. Initial calculations demonstrate that the total number of neutrinos emitted per fission in the first 10 3 s after a short pulse of 239 Pu fission is about a factor of two less than that from Pu fissioning under steady state conditions. Furthermore, there are significant energy spectral differences as a function of time after the pulse that must be considered. These and other model dependencies will be discussed in the paper. In the absence of nuclear weapons testing, many of the technical and theoretical challenges of a full nuclear test could be mitigated with a low cost smaller scale 20 ton fiducial mass IBD demonstration detector placed near a pulsed reactor. Potential reactors include the Texas A&M University TRIGA 1 GW–10 ms pulsed facility or the Sandia Annular Core Research Reactor. The short duty cycle and repeatability of pulses would provide critical real environment testing and measurements, which would be valuable for planning a possible real test shot in the future. Furthermore, the antineutrino rate as a function of time data would provide unique constraints on fission databases and model assumptions. Finally, there are impactful science drivers such as sensitive searches for ∼1 eV 2 sterile neutrinos and ∼MeV scale axions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Complex patterns of abnormal heartbeats

Individuals having frequent abnormal heartbeats interspersed with normal heartbeats may be at an increased risk of sudden cardiac death. However, mechanistic understanding of such cardiac arrhythmias is limited. We present a visual and qualitative method to display statistical properties of abnormal heartbeats. We introduce dynamical "heartprints" which reveal characteristic patterns in long clinical records encompassing approximately 10(5) heartbeats and may provide information about underlying mechanisms. We test if these dynamics can be reproduced by model simulations in which abnormal heartbeats are generated (i) randomly, (ii) at a fixed time interval following a preceding normal heartbeat, or (iii) by an independent oscillator that may or may not interact with the normal heartbeat. We compare the results of these three models and test their limitations to comprehensively simulate the statistical features of selected clinical records. This work introduces methods that can be used to test mathematical models of arrhythmogenesis and to develop a new understanding of underlying electrophysiologic mechanisms of cardiac arrhythmia.

Non-NASA Center↗

Exploring an Ensemble-Based Approach to Atmospheric Climate Modeling and Testing at Scale

A strict throughput requirement has placed a cap on the degree to which we can depend on the execution of single, long, fine spatial grid simulations to explore global atmospheric climate behavior. Alternatively, running an ensemble of short simulations is computationally more efficient. We test the null hypothesis that the climate statistics of a full-complexity atmospheric model derived from an ensemble of independent short simulation is equivalent to that from an equilibrated long simulation. The climate of short simulation ensembles is statistically distinguishable from that of a long simulation in terms of the distribution of global annual means, largely due to the presence of low-frequency atmospheric intrinsic variability in the long simulation. We also find that model climate statistics of the simulation ensemble are sensitive to the choice of compiler optimizations. While some answer-changing optimization choices do not effect the climate state in terms of mean, variability and extremes, aggressive optimizations can result in significantly different climate states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Correlation of Space Shuttle Landing Performance with Post-Flight Cardiovascular Dysfunction

Introduction: Microgravity induces cardiovascular adaptations resulting in orthostatic intolerance on re-exposure to normal gravity. Orthostasis could interfere with performance of complex tasks during the re-entry phase of Shuttle landings. This study correlated measures of Shuttle landing performance with post-flight indicators of orthostatic intolerance. Methods: Relevant Shuttle landing performance parameters routinely recorded at touchdown by NASA included downrange and crossrange distances, airspeed, and vertical speed. Measures of cardiovascular changes were calculated from operational stand tests performed in the immediate post-flight period on mission commanders from STS-41 to STS-66. Stand test data analyzed included maximum standing heart rate, mean increase in maximum heart rate, minimum standing systolic blood pressure, and mean decrease in standing systolic blood pressure. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated with the null hypothesis that there was no statistically significant linear correlation between stand test results and Shuttle landing performance. A correlation coefficient? 0.5 with a p<0.05 was considered significant. Results: There were no significant linear correlations between landing performance and measures of post-flight cardiovascular dysfunction. Discussion: There was no evidence that post-flight cardiovascular stand test data correlated with Shuttle landing performance. This implies that variations in landing performance were not due to space flight-induced orthostatic intolerance.

McCluskey, R.↗

EVAL system concept definition. Partial spacelab payload, appendices

Tables and charts are presented for experiment schematics, mission opportunities, mission timelines, crew time line and power profile. The methodology being developed to evaluate cost effective vibroacoustic test plans for a representative EVAL shuttle spacelab payload is analyzed. Statistical decision theory is used to quantitatively evaluate seven alternate test plans which include component, subassembly, or payload testing and combinations of component assembly testing.

Source record↗

Statistical Mechanics of Turbulent Dynamos

Incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence and magnetic dynamos, which occur in magnetofluids with large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers, will be discussed. When Reynolds numbers are large and energy decays slowly, the distribution of energy with respect to length scale becomes quasi-stationary and MHD turbulence can be described statistically. In the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers, viscosity and resistivity become zero and if these values are used in the MHD equations ab initio, a model system called ideal MHD turbulence results. This model system is typically confined in simple geometries with some form of homogeneous boundary conditions, allowing for velocity and magnetic field to be represented by orthogonal function expansions. One advantage to this is that the coefficients of the expansions form a set of nonlinearly interacting variables whose behavior can be described by equilibrium statistical mechanics, i.e., by a canonical ensemble theory based on the global invariants (energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity) of ideal MHD turbulence. Another advantage is that truncated expansions provide a finite dynamical system whose time evolution can be numerically simulated to test the predictions of the associated statistical mechanics. If ensemble predictions are the same as time averages, then the system is said to be ergodic; if not, the system is nonergodic. Although it had been implicitly assumed in the early days of ideal MHD statistical theory development that these finite dynamical systems were ergodic, numerical simulations provided sufficient evidence that they were, in fact, nonergodic. Specifically, while canonical ensemble theory predicted that expansion coefficients would be (i) zero-mean random variables with (ii) energy that decreased with length scale, it was found that although (ii) was correct, (i) was not and the expected ergodicity was broken. The exact cause of this broken ergodicity was explained, after much investigation, by greatly extending the statistical theory of ideal MHD turbulence. The mathematical details of broken ergodicity, in fact, give a quantitative explanation of how coherent structure, dynamic alignment and force-free states appear in turbulent magnetofluids. The relevance of these ideal results to real MHD turbulence occurs because broken ergodicity is most manifest in the ideal case at the largest length scales and it is in these largest scales that a real magnetofluid has the least dissipation, i.e., most closely approaches the behavior of an ideal magnetofluid. Furthermore, the effects grow stronger when cross and magnetic helicities grow large with respect to energy, and this is exactly what occurs with time in a real magnetofluid, where it is called selective decay. The relevance of these results found in ideal MHD turbulence theory to the real world is that they provide at least a qualitative explanation of why confined turbulent magnetofluids, such as the liquid iron that fills the Earth's outer core, produce stationary, large-scale magnetic fields, i.e., the geomagnetic field. These results should also apply to other planets as well as to plasma confinement devices on Earth and in space, and the effects should be manifest if Reynolds numbers are high enough and there is enough time for stationarity to occur, at least approximately. In the presentation, details will be given for both theoretical and numerical results, and references will be provided.

Shebalin, John V.↗

MHD Turbulence and Magnetic Dynamos

Incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence and magnetic dynamos, which occur in magnetofluids with large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers, will be discussed. When Reynolds numbers are large and energy decays slowly, the distribution of energy with respect to length scale becomes quasi-stationary and MHD turbulence can be described statistically. In the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers, viscosity and resistivity become zero and if these values are used in the MHD equations ab initio, a model system called ideal MHD turbulence results. This model system is typically confined in simple geometries with some form of homogeneous boundary conditions, allowing for velocity and magnetic field to be represented by orthogonal function expansions. One advantage to this is that the coefficients of the expansions form a set of nonlinearly interacting variables whose behavior can be described by equilibrium statistical mechanics, i.e., by a canonical ensemble theory based on the global invariants (energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity) of ideal MHD turbulence. Another advantage is that truncated expansions provide a finite dynamical system whose time evolution can be numerically simulated to test the predictions of the associated statistical mechanics. If ensemble predictions are the same as time averages, then the system is said to be ergodic; if not, the system is nonergodic. Although it had been implicitly assumed in the early days of ideal MHD statistical theory development that these finite dynamical systems were ergodic, numerical simulations provided sufficient evidence that they were, in fact, nonergodic. Specifically, while canonical ensemble theory predicted that expansion coefficients would be (i) zero-mean random variables with (ii) energy that decreased with length scale, it was found that although (ii) was correct, (i) was not and the expected ergodicity was broken. The exact cause of this broken ergodicity was explained, after much investigation, by greatly extending the statistical theory of ideal MHD turbulence. The mathematical details of broken ergodicity, in fact, give a quantitative explanation of how coherent structure, dynamic alignment and force-free states appear in turbulent magnetofluids. The relevance of these ideal results to real MHD turbulence occurs because broken ergodicity is most manifest in the ideal case at the largest length scales and it is in these largest scales that a real magnetofluid has the least dissipation, i.e., most closely approaches the behavior of an ideal magnetofluid. Furthermore, the effects grow stronger when cross and magnetic helicities grow large with respect to energy, and this is exactly what occurs with time in a real magnetofluid, where it is called selective decay. The relevance of these results found in ideal MHD turbulence theory to the real world is that they provide at least a qualitative explanation of why confined turbulent magnetofluids, such as the liquid iron that fills the Earth's outer core, produce stationary, large-scale magnetic fields, i.e., the geomagnetic field. These results should also apply to other planets as well as to plasma confinement devices on Earth and in space, and the effects should be manifest if Reynolds numbers are high enough and there is enough time for stationarity to occur, at least approximately. In the presentation, details will be given for both theoretical and numerical results, and references will be provided.

Shebalin, John V↗

Statistical fatigue of graphite/epoxy angle-ply laminates in shear

A three-parameter fatigue and residual strength degradation model has been proposed to predict statistically the fatigue behavior of composite laminae under axial shear loadings. The fatigue behavior includes the fatigue life and the fatigue damage expressed in terms of the residual strength degradation. An experimental test program using graphite/epoxy /+ or - 45 deg/2s laminates has been conducted to generate statistically meaningful data in order to examine the validity of the theoretical model. It is shown that the correlation between the theoretical predictions and the test results on the statistical distributions of the fatigue life and the residual strength is excellent. Test results on the shear modulus degradation are also presented and discussed in detail in order to provide insight for the establishment of a shear modulus degradation model.

Yang, J. N.↗

Some experiments on the effect of remote sounding temperatures upon weather forecasting

A time-continuous statistical method is presented for the four dimensional assimilation of remote sounding temperatures based on radiance measurements from polar orbiting satellites. This method is applied to DST 6 data from the NOAA 4 and Nimbus 6 satellites. The state of the atmosphere throughout the test period was determined using a varying amount of satellite data from the NOAA 4 satellite only, from Nimbus 6 only, and from both satellites together. The methods tested included different variations of the statistical method, as well as more traditional methods. It is concluded that satellite derived temperature data can have a modest, but statistically significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction in the two to three day range, and that this impact is highly sensitive to the quantity of data available and to the assimilation method used.

Halem, M.↗

Test Vehicle Forebody Wake Effects on CPAS Parachutes

Parachute drag performance has been reconstructed for a large number of Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) flight tests. This allows for determining forebody wake effects indirectly through statistical means. When data are available in a "clean" wake, such as behind a slender test vehicle, the relative degradation in performance for other test vehicles can be computed as a Pressure Recovery Fraction (PRF). All four CPAS parachute types were evaluated: Forward Bay Cover Parachutes (FBCPs), Drogues, Pilots, and Mains. Many tests used the missile-shaped Parachute Compartment Drop Test Vehicle (PCDTV) to obtain data at high airspeeds. Other tests used the Orion "boilerplate" Parachute Test Vehicle (PTV) to evaluate parachute performance in a representative heatshield wake. Drag data from both vehicles are normalized to a "capsule" forebody equivalent for Orion simulations. A separate database of PCDTV-specific performance is maintained to accurately predict flight tests. Data are shared among analogous parachutes whenever possible to maximize statistical significance.

Ray, Eric S.↗

Steve: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Supernova Cosmology

Here, we present a new Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) named Steve for performing Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) cosmology fits. This advances previous works by including an improved treatment of Malmquist bias, accounting for additional sources of systematic uncertainty, and increasing numerical efficiency. Given light-curve fit parameters, redshifts, and host-galaxy masses, we fit Steve simultaneously for parameters describing cosmology, SN Ia populations, and systematic uncertainties. Selection effects are characterized using Monte Carlo simulations. We demonstrate its implementation by fitting realizations of SN Ia data sets where the SN Ia model closely follows that used in Steve. Next, we validate on more realistic SNANA simulations of SN Ia samples from the Dark Energy Survey and low-redshift surveys (DES Collaboration et al. 2018). These simulated data sets contain more than 60,000 SNe Ia, which we use to evaluate biases in the recovery of cosmological parameters, specifically the equation of state of dark energy, w. This is the most rigorous test of a BHM method applied to SN Ia cosmology fitting and reveals small w biases that depend on the simulated SN Ia properties, in particular the intrinsic SN Ia scatter model. This w bias is less than 0.03 on average, less than half the statistical uncertainty on w. These simulation test results are a concern for BHM cosmology fitting applications on large upcoming surveys; therefore, future development will focus on minimizing the sensitivity of Steve to the SN Ia intrinsic scatter model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bioverse: A Simulation Framework to Assess the Statistical Power of Future Biosignature Surveys

Next-generation space observatories will conduct the first systematic surveys of terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres and search for evidence of life beyond Earth. While in-depth observations of the nearest habitable worlds may yield enticing results, there are fundamental questions about planetary habitability and evolution that can only be answered through population-level studies of dozens to hundreds of terrestrial planets. To determine the requirements for next-generation observatories to address these questions, we have developed Bioverse. Bioverse combines existing knowledge of exoplanet statistics with a survey simulation and hypothesis testing framework to determine whether proposed space-based direct imaging and transit-spectroscopy surveys will be capable of detecting various hypothetical statistical relationships between the properties of terrestrial exoplanets. Following a description of the code, we apply Bioverse to determine whether an ambitious direct imaging or transit survey would be able to determine the extent of the circumstellar habitable zone and study the evolution of Earth-like planets. Given recent evidence that Earth-sized habitable zone planets are likely much rarer than previously believed, we find that space missions with large search volumes will be necessary to study the population of terrestrial and habitable worlds. Moving forward, Bioverse provides a methodology for performing trade studies of future observatory concepts to maximize their ability to address population-level questions, including and beyond the specific examples explored here.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Test particle propagation in magnetostatic turbulence. 2: The local approximation method

An approximation method for statistical mechanics is presented and applied to a class of problems which contains a test particle propagation problem. All of the available basic equations used in statistical mechanics are cast in the form of a single equation which is integrodifferential in time and which is then used as the starting point for the construction of the local approximation method. Simplification of the integrodifferential equation is achieved through approximation to the Laplace transform of its kernel. The approximation is valid near the origin in the Laplace space and is based on the assumption of small Laplace variable. No other small parameter is necessary for the construction of this approximation method. The n'th level of approximation is constructed formally, and the first five levels of approximation are calculated explicitly. It is shown that each level of approximation is governed by an inhomogeneous partial differential equation in time with time independent operator coefficients. The order in time of these partial differential equations is found to increase as n does. At n = 0 the most local first order partial differential equation which governs the Markovian limit is regained.

Klimas, A. J.↗

Maximum Oxygen Uptake During Long-Duration Space Flight: Preliminary Results

INTRODUCTION: Maximum oxygen uptake (VO2max) is maintained during space flight lasting <15 d, but has not been measured during long-duration missions. This abstract describes pre-flight and in-flight preliminary findings from the International Space Station (ISS) VO2max experiment. METHODS: Seven astronauts (4 M, 3 F: 47 +/- 5 yr, 174 +/- 7 cm, 74.1 +/- 14.7 kg [mean +/- SD]) performed cycle exercise tests to volitional maximum approx.45 d before flight and tests were scheduled every 30 d during flight beginning on flight day (FD) 14. Tests consisted of three 5-min stages designed to elicit 25%, 50%, and 75% of preflight VO2max, followed by 25 W/min increases. VO2 and heart rate (HR) were measured using the ISS Portable Pulmonary Function System (PPFS) (Damec, Odense, DK). Unfortunately the PPFS did not arrive at the ISS in time to support early test sessions for 3 crewmembers. Descriptive statistics are presented for pre-flight vs. late-flight (FD 147 +/- 33 d) comparisons for all subjects (n=7); and pre-flight, early (FD 18 +/- 3) and late-flight (FD 156 +/- 5) data are presented for subjects (n=4) who completed all of these test sessions. RESULTS: When all subjects are considered, average VO2max decreased from pre- to late in-flight (2.98 +/- 0.85 vs. 2.57 +/- 0.50 L/min) while maximum HR late-flight seemed unchanged (178 +/- 9 vs. 175 +/- 8 beats/min). Similarly, for subjects who completed pre-, early, and late flight measurements (n=4), mean VO2max declined from 3.19 +/- 0.75 L/min preflight to 2.43 +/- 0.43 and 2.62 +/- 0.38 L/min early and late-flight, respectively. Maximum HR was 183 +/- 8, 174 +/- 8, and 179 +/- 6 beats/min pre-, early- and late-flight. DISCUSSION: Average VO2max declined during flight and did not appreciably recover as flight duration increased; however much inter-subject variation occurred in these changes.

Moore, A. D., Jr.↗