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At least 865 records · Page 48

SolarView: Georgia Solar Adoption in Context

The local-national gap is a problem currently plaguing the adoption of emerging technologies targeted at resolving energy transition issues that are characterized by disparities in the adoption of innovations and policies on a local level in response to national policy implementation. These disparities reflect a complex system of technical, economic, social, political, and ecological factors linked to the perceptions held by communities and how they see energy development and national/global policy goals. This dataset is an attempt to bridge the local-national gap regarding solar PV adoption in the State of Georgia (U.S.) by aggregating variables from seven different publicly-available sources. The objective of this activity was to design a resource that would help researchers interested in the context underlying solar adoption on the local scale of governance (e.g., the county level). The SolarView database includes information necessary for informing policy-making activities such as solar installation information, a historical county zip code directory, county-level census data, housing value indexes, renewable energy incentive totals, PV rooftop suitability percentages, and utility rates. As this is a database from multiple sources, incomplete data entries are noted.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

User's Manual for the Langley Aerothermodynamic Upwind Relaxation Algorithm (LAURA)

This user's manual provides detailed instructions for the installation and the application of version 4.1 of the Langley Aerothermodynamic Upwind Relaxation Algorithm (LAURA). Also provides simulation of flow field in thermochemical nonequilibrium around vehicles traveling at hypersonic velocities through the atmosphere. Earlier versions of LAURA were predominantly research codes, and they had minimal (or no) documentation. This manual describes UNIX-based utilities for customizing the code for special applications that also minimize system resource requirements. The algorithm is reviewed, and the various program options are related to specific equations and variables in the theoretical development.

Gnoffo, Peter A.↗

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

Megadroughts, often lasting multiple decades, have caused major ecological and societal disturbances in the past. While most research has focused on megadroughts in North America, the concept has gained increased international attention in recent years. In this Review, we discuss shared causes and features of Common Era and future megadroughts. Paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the last 2,000 years document the occurrence of megadroughts on every continent, save Antarctica. Megadroughts are often linked to decadal variations in sea surface temperatures, with radiative forcing and land-atmosphere interactions acting as secondary factors. Anthropogenic climate change has already contributed to recent megadroughts in southwestern North America and Chile-Argentina and will likely increase future megadrought risk and severity in many regions. Notably, future megadroughts will be differentiated from past events through higher temperatures, which act as the main driver of increased risk, severity, and impacts. Major deficiencies in our understanding of natural and anthropogenic megadrought processes remain, however. These include 1) sparse high-resolution paleoclimate information over some regions, 2) incomplete representations of internal variability and land-surface processes in climate models, and 3) the undetermined capacity of water-resource management systems to manage megadrought impacts. Resolving these key uncertainties will be necessary to increase confidence in projections of future megadrought risk and resiliency planning.

Droughts↗

Application of High Performance Computing for Simulating Cycle-to-Cycle Variation in Dual-Fuel Combustion Engines

Interest in operational cost reduction is driving engine manufacturers to consider lower-cost fuel substitution in heavy-duty diesel engines. These dual-fuel (DF) engines could be operated either in diesel-only mode or operated with premixed natural gas (NG) ignited by a pilot flame of compression-ignited direct-injected diesel fuel. One promising application is that of large-bore, medium-speed engines such as those used in locomotives. With realistic natural gas substitution levels in the fleet of locomotives currently in service, such fuel substitution could result in billions of dollars of savings annually in the US alone. However, under certain conditions, dual-fuel operation can result in increased cycle-to-cycle variability (CCV) during combustion, resulting in variations in cylinder pressure and work extraction. In certain situations, the CCV of dual-fuel operation can be notably higher than that of diesel-only combustion under similar operating conditions. Excessive CCV can limit the NG substitution rate and operating range of a dual-fuel engine by increasing emissions and reducing engine stability, reliability and fuel efficiency via incomplete natural-gas combustion. Running multiple engine cycles in series to simulate CCV can be quite time consuming. Hence innovative modelling techniques and large computing resources are needed to investigate the factors affecting CCV in dual-fuel engines. This paper discusses the use of the High Performance Computing resource Titan, at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, to investigate cycle-to-cycle combustion variability of a dual-fuel engine. The CONVERGE CFD software was used to simulate multiple, parallel single cycles of dual-fuel combustion with perturbed operating parameters and boundary conditions. These perturbations are imposed according to a sparse grids sampling of the parameter space. The sampling scheme chosen is similar to a design of experiments method but uses functions designed to minimize the number of samples required to achieve a desired degree of accuracy. The perturbed input parameters were connected to engine performance output over a large parameter space. Additionally, the same methodology was used to perform a set of diesel-only simulations at similar operating conditions to assess the numerical capability of capturing relatively low combustion variation. Lastly, this technique is expected to be useful to understand and predict combustion stability limits (knock and misfire) which are important for designing dual-fuel engines with improved operability and reliability.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

How Earth System Models Can Inform Key Dimensions of Marine Food Security in the Alaskan Arctic

The Arctic is home to several groups of Indigenous Peoples, each with distinct ways of interacting with their environment and ways of life. Arctic, Indigenous Peoples’ food sovereignty is tightly linked with food security. Subsistence harvesting activities provide nutritious and culturally vital foods for Alaska Native households and communities. Climate change is causing rapid and more unpredictable shifts in environmental conditions that impact three of the key aspects of food security, availability, stability, and accessibility. While communities monitor the abundance and health of food webs and environments as part of subsistence harvest practices, anticipating major transformations and changes in these systems is challenging. We explored the potential of Earth System Model output in helping anticipate or project physical or ecosystem changes relevant to Alaska Indigenous peoples’ food security needs. Through examples of model products, that provide measures of accessibility and availability of marine resources, we show that modern models, such as the Energy Exascale Earth System Model presented here, can provide estimates of a broad suite of variables relevant to food security. We investigate how Earth System Model output could contribute to exploring questions related to aspects of Arctic food security such as accessibility and availability and highlight present model shortcomings that, if addressed, would move Earth System Models closer to being a useful tool for understanding environmentally driven changes to the availability and accessibility of harvestable food resources. Our example model-derived food security indicators illustrate how Earth System Model output could be combined with relevant, non-model, information sources; These model products are meant only as a starting point and a tool for engaging community members and to present, in an accessible way, the model’s potential utility, or current lack thereof, to rights holders and stakeholders concerned about food security. We are hopeful that with example products in hand, additional model development efforts will have a higher likelihood of success in achieving an iterative discussion with stakeholders regarding feasible and desired products.

Gibson, Georgina A.↗

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Advanced modeling of $\mathrm{DER}$s and $\mathrm{UPFC}$ devices with Sparse Tableau Formulation for $\mathrm{ACOPF}$

Distributed energy resources (DERs) are projected to be significant contributors in electric power grid modernization efforts. Yet many distribution and transmission system operators are concerned about potential reliability and security impacts of high penetration of DERs, and cite the need of greater visibility and controllability of decision variables associated with these DERs. Tractable modeling of DERs in AC optimal power flow (ACOPF) is one of the barriers to their integration into the existing operation, planning and market paradigm. Similarly, as more intermittent renewable resources are deployed, power flow control becomes more valuable, and accurate representation of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices in ACOPF will likely grow in importance. Here this paper focuses on the detailed representation of substations with the high penetration of DERs, and on the Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC) FACTS devices, in OPF. To this end, a novel Sparse Tableau Formulation (STF) for ACOPF is used to accurately model such features as substation reconfiguration to accommodate DERs, and to represent decision variables appropriate to the voltage source converters within UPFCs. Numerical studies are provided to demonstrate the impacts of detailed DER and UPFC representations on optimal operation, and the computational efficiency.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications: Fourth Edition

As the world increasingly seeks low-carbon energy solutions, solar power emerges as the most abundant resource on our planet. However, the challenge of effectively harnessing this energy is crucial in the coming years. Solar energy applications such as photovoltaics, solar heating and cooling, and concentrating solar power use different technologies to capitalize on sunlight. Each system has unique capabilities and requirements, underscoring the need for reliable information about solar resources across diverse installations, from residential rooftops to large-scale power plants. This is especially important for substantial projects, often exceeding $1 billion in construction costs. Before embarking on such ventures, it is imperative to obtain accurate data concerning solar resource quality and reliability at specific sites. Developers require detailed historical information, including seasonal, daily, hourly, and, ideally, subhourly variability to effectively predict a power plant's annual performance. Without these vital data, financial analyses fall short. Moreover, with the growing adoption of distributed photovoltaics, integrating these generation sources becomes critical to maintaining grid reliability and stability. By accurately forecasting generation patterns, utilities and system operators can facilitate greater integration of solar energy, thus ensuring the operational stability of the grid. The complexity and importance of these issues have prompted the foremost experts in the field to collaborate under the auspices of the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS) Task 16 to publish this handbook, which summarizes state-of-the-art information about all these topics. The efforts focus on providing reliable data and insights that can help shape our investments in solar energy and drive a sustainable future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Schrödinger cat states of a nuclear spin qudit in silicon

High-dimensional quantum systems are a valuable resource for quantum information processing. They can be used to encode error-correctable logical qubits, which has been demonstrated using continuous-variable states in microwave cavities or the motional modes of trapped ions. For example, high-dimensional systems can be used to realize ‘Schrödinger cat’ states, which are superpositions of widely displaced coherent states that can be used to illustrate quantum effects at large scales. Recent proposals have suggested encoding qubits in high-spin atomic nuclei, which are finite-dimensional systems that can host hardware-efficient versions of continuous-variable codes. Here, in this study, we demonstrate the creation and manipulation of Schrödinger cat states using the spin-7/2 nucleus of an antimony atom embedded in a silicon nanoelectronic device. We use a multi-frequency control scheme to produce spin rotations that preserve the symmetry of the qudit, and we constitute logical Pauli operations for qubits encoded in the Schrödinger cat states. Our work demonstrates the ability to prepare and control non-classical resource states, which is a prerequisite for applications in quantum information processing and quantum error correction, using our scalable, manufacturable semiconductor platform.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A new method for wind speed forecasting based on copula theory

Highlights: • A copula method is developed to determine the representative wind speed in wind farm. • The method proposed can determine the joint distribution without assuming the variables to be independent. • The representative wind speed obtained by the conditional distribution is more reasonably. How to determine representative wind speed is crucial in wind resource assessment. Accurate wind resource assessments are important to wind farms development. Linear regressions are usually used to obtain the representative wind speed. However, terrain flexibility of wind farm and long distance between wind speed sites often lead to low correlation. In this study, copula method is used to determine the representative year's wind speed in wind farm by interpreting the interaction of the local wind farm and the meteorological station. The result shows that the method proposed here can not only determine the relationship between the local anemometric tower and nearby meteorological station through Kendall's tau, but also determine the joint distribution without assuming the variables to be independent. Moreover, the representative wind data can be obtained by the conditional distribution much more reasonably. We hope this study could provide scientific reference for accurate wind resource assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scale Resistant Heat Exchanger for Low Temperature Geothermal Binary Cycle Power Plant

Phase 1 of the investigation of improvements to low temperature geothermal power systems was completed. The improvements considered were reduction of scaling in heat exchangers and a hermetic turbine generator (eliminating seals, seal system, gearbox, and lube oil system). A scaling test system with several experiments was designed and operated at Coso geothermal resource with brine having a high scaling potential. Several methods were investigated at the brine temperature of 235 ºF. One method, circulation of abradable balls through the brine passages, was found to substantially reduce scale deposits. The test heat exchanger was operated with brine outlet temperatures as low as 125 ºF, which enables increased heat input available to power conversion systems. For advanced low temperature cycles, such as the Variable Phase Cycle (VPC) or Kalina Cycle, the lower brine temperature will result in a 20-30% increase in power production from low temperature resources. A preliminary design of an abradable ball system (ABS) was done for the heat exchanger of the 1 megawatt VPC system at Coso resource. The ABS will be installed and demonstrated in Phase 2 of this project, increasing the power production above that possible with the present 175 ºF brine outlet limit. A hermetic turbine generator (TGH) was designed and manufacturing drawings produced. This unit will use the working fluid (R134a) to lubricate the bearings and cool the generator. The 200 kW turbine directly drives the generator, eliminating a gearbox and lube oil system. Elimination of external seals eliminates the potential of leakage of the refrigerant or hydrocarbon working fluids, resulting in environmental improvement. A similar design has been demonstrated by Energent in an ORC waste heat recovery system. The existing VPC power plant at Coso was modified to enable the “piggyback” demonstration of the TGH. The existing heat exchanger, pumps, and condenser will be operated to provide the required process conditions for the TGH demonstration. Operation of the TGH with and without the ABS system will demonstrate an increase in geothermal resource productivity for the VPC from 1 MW/(million lb) of brine to 1.75 MW/(million lb) of brine, a 75% increase.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Cost Implications of Uncertainty in CO{sub 2} Storage Resource Estimates: A Review

Carbon capture from stationary sources and geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is an important option to include in strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. However, the potential costs of commercial-scale CO{sub 2} storage are not well constrained, stemming from the inherent uncertainty in storage resource estimates coupled with a lack of detailed estimates of the infrastructure needed to access those resources. Storage resource estimates are highly dependent on storage efficiency values or storage coefficients, which are calculated based on ranges of uncertain geological and physical reservoir parameters. If dynamic factors (such as variability in storage efficiencies, pressure interference, and acceptable injection rates over time), reservoir pressure limitations, boundaries on migration of CO{sub 2}, consideration of closed or semi-closed saline reservoir systems, and other possible constraints on the technically accessible CO{sub 2} storage resource (TASR) are accounted for, it is likely that only a fraction of the TASR could be available without incurring significant additional costs. Although storage resource estimates typically assume that any issues with pressure buildup due to CO{sub 2} injection will be mitigated by reservoir pressure management, estimates of the costs of CO{sub 2} storage generally do not include the costs of active pressure management. Production of saline waters (brines) could be essential to increasing the dynamic storage capacity of most reservoirs, but including the costs of this critical method of reservoir pressure management could increase current estimates of the costs of CO{sub 2} storage by two times, or more. Even without considering the implications for reservoir pressure management, geologic uncertainty can significantly impact CO{sub 2} storage capacities and costs, and contribute to uncertainty in carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems. Given the current state of available information and the scarcity of (data from) long-term commercial-scale CO{sub 2} storage projects, decision makers may experience considerable difficulty in ascertaining the realistic potential, the likely costs, and the most beneficial pattern of deployment of CCS as an option to reduce CO{sub 2} concentrations in the atmosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fast Multiresolution Reads of Massive Simulation Datasets

Today’s massively parallel simulation codes can produce output ranging up to many terabytes of data. Utilizing this data to support scientific inquiry requires analysis and visualization, yet the sheer size of the data makes it cumbersome or impossible to read without computational resources similar to the original simulation. We identify two broad classes of problems for reading data and present effective solutions for both. The first class of data reads depends on user requirements and available resources. Tasks such as visualization and user-guided analysis may be accomplished using only a subset of variables with a restricted spatial extent at a reduced resolution. The other class of reads requires full resolution multivariate data to be loaded, for example to restart a simulation. We show that utilizing the hierarchical multiresolution IDX data format enables scalable and efficient serial and parallel read access on a variety of hardware from supercomputers down to portable devices. Here, we demonstrate interactive view-dependent visualization and analysis of massive scientific datasets using low-power commodity hardware, and we compare read performance with other parallel file formats for both full and partial resolution data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

PLAT domain protein 1 (PLAT1/PLAFP) binds to the Arabidopsis thaliana plasma membrane and inserts a lipid

Robust agricultural yields depend on the plant's ability to fix carbon amid variable environmental conditions. Over seasonal and diurnal cycles, the plant must constantly adjust its metabolism according to available resources or external stressors. The metabolic changes that a plant undergoes in response to stress are well understood, but the long-distance signaling mechanisms that facilitate communication throughout the plant are less studied. The phloem is considered the predominant conduit for the bidirectional transport of these signals in the form of metabolites, nucleic acids, proteins, and lipids. Lipid trafficking through the phloem in particular attracted our attention due to its reliance on soluble lipid-binding proteins (LBP) that generate and solubilize otherwise membrane-associated lipids. The Phloem Lipid-Associated Family Protein (PLAFP) from Arabidopsis thaliana is generated in response to abiotic stress as is its lipid-ligand phosphatidic acid (PA). PLAFP is proposed to transport PA through the phloem in response to drought stress. To understand the interactions between PLAFP and PA, nearly 100 independent systems comprised of the protein and one PA, or a plasma membrane containing varying amounts of PA, were simulated using atomistic classical molecular dynamics methods. In these simulations, PLAFP is found to bind to plant plasma membrane models independent of the PA concentration. When bound to the membrane, PLAFP adopts a binding pose where W41 and R82 penetrate the membrane surface and anchor PLAFP. This triggers a separation of the two loop regions containing W41 and R82. Subsequent simulations indicate that PA insert into the β -sandwich of PLAFP, driven by interactions with multiple amino acids besides the W41 and R82 identified during the insertion process. Finally, fine-tuning the protein-membrane and protein-PA interface by mutating a selection of these amino acids may facilitate engineering plant signaling processes by modulating the binding response.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Extremes and Variability Surrounding Chesapeake Bay: Past, Present, and Future

Measures of extreme climate variability around Chesapeake Bay have changed over the past century (1895–2014), resulting in the need to establish new baselines for understanding future change. Here, observed climate variability is compared with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project fifth assessment climate models to evaluate ensemble model skill in this region. Observed trends include annual and seasonal declines in the percentage of cold days. Similarly, increases in the annual and seasonal percentages of warm days occurred in all seasons of the North Chesapeake (>38.2°N) but were only significant in spring and summer in the South (<38.2°N) demonstrating regional differences even at local scales. Precipitation intensity increased over the past century. Models using emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 project these trends will continue, though they have little skill in precipitation extremes. Pacific and Atlantic climate modes are generally more correlated with climate extremes than mean temperature and precipitation suggesting potential predictability in the synoptic patterns underlying the extremes. However, they also drive the need for time series at least 60-years long for establishing climate trends. This local analysis differs from regional, state level, and local 2.5° × 3.75° grid analyses, highlighting the importance of local climate assessments that consider topographic and regional weather patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian homodyne and heterodyne tomography

Continuous-variable (CV) photonic states are of increasing interest in quantum information science, bolstered by features such as deterministic resource state generation and error correction via bosonic codes. Data-efficient characterization methods will prove critical in the fine-tuning and maturation of such CV quantum technology. Although Bayesian inference offers appealing properties—including uncertainty quantification and optimality in mean-squared error—Bayesian methods have yet to be demonstrated for the tomography of arbitrary CV states. Here we introduce a complete Bayesian quantum state tomography workflow capable of inferring generic CV states measured by homodyne or heterodyne detection, with no assumption of Gaussianity. As examples, we demonstrate our approach on experimental coherent, thermal, and cat state data, obtaining excellent agreement between our Bayesian estimates and theoretical predictions. Our approach lays the groundwork for Bayesian estimation of highly complex CV quantum states in emerging quantum photonic platforms, such as quantum communications networks and sensors.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Novel Geometric Operations for Linear Programming

This report summarizes the work performed under the project "Linear Programming in Strongly Polynomial Time." Linear programming (LP) is a classic combinatorial optimization problem heavily used directly and as an enabling subroutine in integer programming (IP). Specifically IP is the same as LP except that some solution variables must take integer values (e.g. to represent yes/no decisions). Together LP and IP have many applications in resource allocation including general logistics, and infrastructure design and vulnerability analysis. The project was motivated by the PI's recent success developing methods to efficiently sample Voronoi vertices (essentially finding nearest neighbors in high-dimensional point sets) in arbitrary dimension. His method seems applicable to exploring the high-dimensional convex feasible space of an LP problem. Although the project did not provably find a strongly-polynomial algorithm, it explored multiple algorithm classes. The new medial simplex algorithms may still lead to solvers with improved provable complexity. We describe medial simplex algorithms and some relevant structural/complexity results. We also designed a novel parallel LP algorithm based on our geometric insights and implemented it in the Spoke-LP code. A major part of the computational step is many independent vector dot products. Our parallel algorithm distributes the problem constraints across processors. Current commercial and high-quality free LP solvers require all problem details to fit onto a single processor or multicore. Our new algorithm might enable the solution of problems too large for any current LP solvers. We describe our new algorithm, give preliminary proof-of-concept experiments, and describe a new generator for arbitrarily large LP instances.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗