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At least 883 records · Page 49

A New Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction Scheme for Seasonal Precipitation

Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada This paper describes the fundamental theory of the ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) algorithm for the seasonal climate forecasting. The algorithm is a statistical regression sch eme based on maximal correlation between the predictor and predictand. The prediction error is estimated by a spectral method using the basis of empirical orthogonal functions. The ECC algorithm treats the predictors and predictands as continuous fields and is an improvement from the traditional canonical correlation prediction. The improvements include the use of area-factor, estimation of prediction error, and the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The ECC is applied to the seasonal forecasting over various parts of the world. The example presented here is for the North America precipitation. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST) from different ocean basins. The Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST (1951-1999) is used as the predictor's historical data. The optimally interpolated global monthly precipitation is used as the predictand?s historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the ECC algorithm renders very high skill and the optimal ensemble is very important to the high value.

Kim, Kyu-Myong↗

Large aperture deformable mirror with a transferred single-crystal silicon membrane actuated using large-stroke PZT Unimorph Actuators

We have demonstrated a large aperture (50 mm x 50 mm) continuous membrane deformable mirror (DM) with a large-stroke piezoelectric unimorph actuator array. The DM consists of a continuous, large aperture, silicon membrane 'transferred' in its entirety onto a 20 x 20 piezoelectric unimorph actuator array. A PZT unimorph actuator, 2.5 mm in diameter with optimized PZT/Si thickness and design showed a deflection of 5.7 [m at 20V. An assembled DM showed an operating frequency bandwidth of 30 kHz and influence function of approximately 30%.

unimorph↗

Integrating Analytical Solutions and U-Net Model for Predicting Groundwater Contaminant Plumes in Pump-and-Treat Systems

Pump-and-treat (P&T) is a common technique for groundwater remediation involving the extraction and treatment of contaminated water above ground. Optimizing the design and operation of the P&T well network is essential for maximizing the system’s effectiveness and efficiency. However, this optimization often necessitates many model evaluations, leading to computationally demanding tasks. This study introduces a novel approach that integrates analytical solutions for groundwater dynamics with the U-Net (Ronneberger et al., 2015) deep learning framework to predict groundwater contaminant plume migration under dynamic pumping conditions. By incorporating the Thiem equation (Thiem, 1906) into the input preprocessing, the U-Net model transforms sparse well data into a continuous spatial field that captures the hydraulic impacts of pumping activities. This integration enables the model to leverage both deep learning capabilities and classical physics-based groundwater theories, enhancing prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. These advancements can facilitate rapid, large-scale evaluations of P&T optimization simulations, allowing for timely and effective decision-making in well placement and system management. We demonstrate the model's robust performance across both simplified transient 2D models and a more complex 3D heterogeneous site model at the 200 West P&T facility at the Hanford Site. The U-Net-based model offers substantial computational advantages, reducing simulation times significantly compared to full physics-based models and providing a powerful tool for rapid site evaluation and P&T system optimization, such as evaluating alternative P&T well network designs. Our findings highlight the potential of advanced machine learning models to significantly enhance the efficiency and sustainability of groundwater remediation efforts, offering a novel application of U-Net architecture in environmental science.

Pump-and-treat↗

Optimal experimental design: Formulations and computations

Questions of ‘how best to acquire data’ are essential to modelling and prediction in the natural and social sciences, engineering applications, and beyond. Optimal experimental design (OED) formalizes these questions and creates computational methods to answer them. This article presents a systematic survey of modern OED, from its foundations in classical design theory to current research involving OED for complex models. We begin by reviewing criteria used to formulate an OED problem and thus to encode the goal of performing an experiment. We emphasize the flexibility of the Bayesian and decision-theoretic approach, which encompasses information-based criteria that are well-suited to nonlinear and non-Gaussian statistical models. We then discuss methods for estimating or bounding the values of these design criteria; this endeavour can be quite challenging due to strong nonlinearities, high parameter dimension, large per-sample costs, or settings where the model is implicit. A complementary set of computational issues involves optimization methods used to find a design; we discuss such methods in the discrete (combinatorial) setting of observation selection and in settings where an exact design can be continuously parametrized. Finally we present emerging methods for sequential OED that build non-myopic design policies, rather than explicit designs; these methods naturally adapt to the outcomes of past experiments in proposing new experiments, while seeking coordination among all experiments to be performed. Throughout, we highlight important open questions and challenges.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

STEPs-SOL, a Peptoid Force Field Parameterization to Include Solvent Effects

As peptoids (N-substituted glycines) continue to gain popularity as a class of biomimetic polymers, the importance and demand for accurate force fields in molecular simulations also grow. Building on the vacuum-optimized Systematic and Extensible Force Field for Peptoids (STEPs) force field, here we present STEPs-SOL, a novel peptoid force field parametrization that effectively incorporates solvent effects to enhance the accuracy of peptoid simulations. The development of STEPs-SOL is based on the need for precise electrostatic modeling achieved through solvent-specific partial charge optimization. Here, our systematic approach significantly improves agreement with experimental measurements, reducing the mean absolute error in cis/trans ratio predictions (ΔG c/t ) by an average of 38% across multiple peptoid residues and solvent environments. This improved parametrization addresses computational challenges associated with nonbonded energies while maintaining a workflow that relies on high-level quantum mechanical data rather than depending solely on limited experimental equilibrium properties. By evaluating the effects of conformational bias in restrained electrostatic potential (RESP) charge generation and examining their impact on peptoid conformations in various solvents, we enhance our understanding of peptoid structural dynamics while providing a more accurate modeling framework.

force field↗

Large Eddy Simulation and Analysis of Truck Generated Droplet Spray Transport at Bridges

Weathering steel is a particular type of steel that develops a higher level of atmospheric corrosion protection than non-weathering grades of steel. While uncoated weathering steels have the appearance of being “rusted”, there are many forms of ferric oxyhydroxides (aka. rust) that can form on steel. The predominant ferric oxyhydroxide that gives uncoated weathering steel its tightly adherent patina is goethite. The atmospheric corrosion protection comes from alloying, primarily with a copper composition greater than 0.20 percent and also small amounts of chrome, nickel, and silicon. Bare atmospheric corrosion resistant steels have been recognized as far back as 1905 with very early editions of the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) A 7 “Standard Specification for Steel for Bridges and Buildings” [1]. Uncoated weathering steel (UWS) is the lowest cost corrosion protection system possible for a steel bridge based on the first cost. Provided the UWS is used in an optimal environment that allows the protective patina to form, UWS also provides the lowest life cycle cost. The protective patina on UWS does not form or degrades in continuously damp conditions, forming a higher proportion of lepidocrocite, or in the presence of a concentration of chlorine ions that is too high, forming a higher proportion of akageneite.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Microreactor Assembly Transportation Cask Model Description for Criticality Safety Validation Basis Assessment

Criticality safety analyses are completed on a transportation cask used for microreactor assembly shipment to provide an example of model and analysis to industry for reproducing this type of study on their microreactor fuel shipment. The fuel assembly considered is based on a gas-cooled microreactor (GC-MR), which utilizes HALEU fuel in the form of TRISO particles and utilizes various design options considered in industry designs. Various versions of this GC-MR assembly were studied, with and without YH2 moderator, providing similar conclusions. The shipment cask design is revised based on an existing design ES-3100, developed by Y-12 for the transport of highly enriched uranium (HEU), but is enlarged to hold the GC-MR fuel assembly. Criticality safety analysis for the cask/GC-MR fuel assembly package was performed using the CSAS6 sequence of SCALE6.3.2, utilizing the ENDF/B-VII.1 based continuous energy neutron library, and the analysis strictly follows the guideline from NRC reference reports. Different scenarios, e.g. normal operation, undamaged cask with water flooded, damaged cask with optimal water moderation, have been analyzed and it could be concluded the package would always have a large margin of subcriticality even packed in an infinite array. Sensitivity and similarity analyses are also performed using the TSUNAMI sequence of SCALE6.3.2, and the similarity analysis uses all the experiments from the ICSBEP Handbook with Intermediate and Mixed Enriched Uranium (IEU) and Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) systems together with additional ones that are sponsored by the DNCSH program. These similarity analyses indicate that dry cases have no similar benchmark experiments (ck values greater than 0.8), which may become problematic if more assemblies are shipped together (or a fully loaded core is shipped) and margin to criticality is reduced. However, the damaged cask models with flooded assemblies exhibited similarities to many experiments with ck values greater than 0.8.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Microreactor Assembly Transportation Cask Model Description for Criticality Safety Validation Basis Assessment (Rev. 3)

Criticality safety analyses are completed on a transportation cask used for microreactor assembly shipment to provide an example of model and analysis to industry for reproducing this type of study on their microreactor fuel shipment. The fuel assembly considered is based on a gas-cooled microreactor (GC-MR), which utilizes HALEU fuel in the form of TRISO particles and utilizes various design options considered in industry designs. Various versions of this GC-MR assembly were studied, with and without YH 2 moderator, providing similar conclusions. The shipment cask design is revised based on an existing ES-3100 design, developed by Y-12 for the transport of highly enriched uranium (HEU), but is enlarged to hold the GC-MR fuel assembly. Criticality safety analysis for the cask/GC-MR fuel assembly package was performed using the CSAS6 sequence of SCALE6.3.2, utilizing the ENDF/B-VII.1 based continuous energy neutron library, and the analysis strictly follows the guideline from NRC reference reports. Different scenarios, e.g. normal operation, undamaged cask with water flooded, damaged cask with optimal water moderation, have been analyzed and it could be concluded the package would always have a large margin of subcriticality even packed in an infinite array. Sensitivity and similarity analyses are also performed using the TSUNAMI sequence of SCALE6.3.2, and the similarity analysis uses all the experiments from the ICSBEP Handbook with Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), Intermediate and Mixed Enriched Uranium (IEU) and Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) systems, together with additional ones that are sponsored by the DNCSH program, and selected IRPhEP experiments using TRISO fuel and graphite moderator. These similarity analyses indicate that the dry nominal design has no similar benchmark experiments (ck values greater than 0.8), which may become problematic if more assemblies are shipped together (or a fully loaded core is shipped) and margin to criticality is reduced. However, the cask models with flooded assemblies exhibited similarities to many experiments with c k values greater than 0.8.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Microbial ecology measurement system

The sensitivity and potential rapidity of the PIA test that was demonstrated during the feasibility study warranted continuing the effort to examine the possibility of adapting this test to an automated procedure that could be used during manned missions. The effort during this program has optimized the test conditions for two important respiratory pathogens, influenza virus and Mycoplasma pneumoniae, developed a laboratory model automated detection system, and investigated a group antigen concept for virus detection. Preliminary tests on the handling of oropharygeal clinical samples for PIA testing were performed using the adenovirus system. The results obtained indicated that the PIA signal is reduced in positive samples and is increased in negative samples. Treatment with cysteine appeared to reduce nonspecific agglutination in negative samples but did not maintain the signal in positive samples.

Source record↗

Spacecraft control/flexible structures interaction study

An initial study to begin development of a flight experiment to measure spacecraft control/flexible structure interactions was completed. The approach consisted of developing the equations of motion for a vehicle possessing a flexible solar array, then linearizing about some nominal motion of the craft. A set of solutions is assumed for array deflection using a continuous normal mode method and important parameters are identified. Interrelationships between these parameters, measurement techniques, and input requirements are discussed which assure minimization of special vehicle maneuvers and optimization of data to be obtained during the normal flight sequence. Limited consideration is given to flight data retrieval and processing techniques as correlated with the requirements imposed by the measurement system. Results indicate that inflight measurement of the bending and torsional mode shapes and respective frequencies, and damping ratios, is necessary. Other parameters may be measured from design data.

Kaplan, M. H.↗

Modeling the human controller in environments that include continuous and discrete tasks

In complex environments where the human operator is a supervisor, he must allocate his attention between different kinds of tasks for satisfactory overall performance. When a portion of the future reference trajectory for a continuous control task is available for preview, scheduling various other discrete activities is possible. A model has been developed for this situation using dynamic programming to solve an optimal control problem. An experiment was conducted where subjects controlled an airplane symbol over a map, shown a fixed distance into the future. Discrete tasks were introduced as data entry tasks. Results showed that the model compared favorably with experimental results.

Govindaraj, T.↗

Increasing cellular coverage within integrated terrestrial/satellite mobile networks

When applying the hierarchical cellular concept, the satellite acts as giant umbrella cell covering a region with some terrestrial cells. If a mobile terminal traversing the region arrives to the border-line or limits of a regular cellular ground service, network transition occurs and the satellite system continues the mobile coverage. To adequately assess the boundaries of service of a mobile satellite system an a cellular network within an integrated environment, this paper provides an optimized scheme to predict when a network transition may be necessary. Under the assumption of a classified propagation phenomenon and Lognormal shadowing, the study applies an analytical approach to estimate the location of a mobile terminal based on a reception of the signal strength emitted by a base station.

Castro, Jonathan P.↗

Statistical Mechanics and Dynamics of the Outer Solar System.I. The Jupiter/Saturn Zone

We report on numerical simulations designed to understand how the solar system evolved through a winnowing of planetesimals accreeted from the early solar nebula. This sorting process is driven by the energy and angular momentum and continues to the present day. We reconsider the existence and importance of stable niches in the Jupiter/Saturn Zone using greatly improved numerical techniques based on high-order optimized multi-step integration schemes coupled to roundoff error minimizing methods.

numerical simulations planetesimals planet formati↗

MODIS Collection 6 MAIAC Algorithm

This paper describes the latest version of the algorithm MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction) used for processing the MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Collection6 data record. Since initial publication in 2011-2012, MAIAC has changed considerably to adapt to global processing and improve cloud/snow detection, aerosol retrievals and atmospheric correction of MODIS data. The main changes include (1) transition from a 25 to 1 km scale for retrieval of the spectral regression coefficient (SRC) which helped to remove occasional blockiness at 25 km scale in the aerosol optical depth (AOD) and in the surface reflectance, (2) continuous improvements of cloud detection, (3) introduction of smoke and dust tests to discriminate absorbing fine- and coarse mode aerosols, (4) adding over-water processing, (5) general optimization of the LUT (LookUp-Table)-based radiative transfer for the global processing, and others. MAIAC provides an interdisciplinary suite of atmospheric and land products, including cloud mask (CM), column water vapor (CWV), AOD at 0.47 and 0.55 m, aerosol type (background, smoke or dust) and fine-mode fraction over water; spectral bidirectional reflectance factors (BRF), parameters of Ross-thick Lisparse (RTLS) bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model and instantaneous albedo. For snow-covered surfaces, we provide subpixel snow fraction and snow grain size. All products come in standard HDF4 (software library) format at 1 km resolution, except for BRF, which is also provided at 500 m resolution on a sinusoidal grid adopted by the MODIS Land team. All products are provided on per-observation basis in daily files except for the BRDF/Albedo product, which is reported every 8 days. Because MAIAC uses a time series approach, BRDF/Albedo is naturally gap-filled over land where missing values are filled-in with results from the previous retrieval. While the BRDF model is reported for MODIS Land bands 1-7 and ocean band 8, BRF is reported for both land and ocean bands 1-12. This paper focuses on MAIAC cloud detection, aerosol retrievals and atmospheric correction and describes MCD19 data products and quality assurance (QA) flags.

MAIAC Algorithm↗

Long-term reliability of hand-soldering M55365 Ta capacitors

This is a continuation of the report “Effects of Hand Soldering MIL-PRF-55365 Tantalum Capacitors,” which discusses the parametric effects of convection reflow soldering, JPL standard hand soldering, and optimized hand soldering on solid tantalum capacitors. The current focus is determining the long-term reliability effects of the various soldering techniques. Unfortunately, the 100-piece sample size chosen for the highly accelerated life tests was too small to reliably determine the effects of the different soldering techniques on the lifespan of the parts. In hindsight, this likely could have been predicted based on the large alphas and small betas of the Weibull failure distributions discovered during the scouting trials. Now that the effects of inadequate sample size are better understood, an opportunity exists to not only discover whether there are real differences in the reliability associated with the various soldering techniques, but also the potential to discover the voltage acceleration model and the temperature acceleration effect for these capacitors. It is recommended that the testing be repeated with a more appropriate sample size to capture this useful information.

Spence, Penelope↗

Adjoint Formulation for an Embedded-Boundary Cartesian Method

Many problems in aerodynamic design can be characterized by smooth and convex objective functions. This motivates the use of gradient-based algorithms, particularly for problems with a large number of design variables, to efficiently determine optimal shapes and configurations that maximize aerodynamic performance. Accurate and efficient computation of the gradient, however, remains a challenging task. In optimization problems where the number of design variables dominates the number of objectives and flow- dependent constraints, the cost of gradient computations can be significantly reduced by the use of the adjoint method. The problem of aerodynamic optimization using the adjoint method has been analyzed and validated for both structured and unstructured grids. The method has been applied to design problems governed by the potential, Euler, and Navier-Stokes equations and can be subdivided into the continuous and discrete formulations. Giles and Pierce provide a detailed review of both approaches. Most implementations rely on grid-perturbation or mapping procedures during the gradient computation that explicitly couple changes in the surface shape to the volume grid. The solution of the adjoint equation is usually accomplished using the same scheme that solves the governing flow equations. Examples of such code reuse include multistage Runge-Kutta schemes coupled with multigrid, approximate-factorization, line-implicit Gauss-Seidel, and also preconditioned GMRES. The development of the adjoint method for aerodynamic optimization problems on Cartesian grids has been limited. In contrast to implementations on structured and unstructured grids, Cartesian grid methods decouple the surface discretization from the volume grid. This feature makes Cartesian methods well suited for the automated analysis of complex geometry problems, and consequently a promising approach to aerodynamic optimization. Melvin e t al. developed an adjoint formulation for the TRANAIR code, which is based on the full-potential equation with viscous corrections. More recently, Dadone and Grossman presented an adjoint formulation for the Euler equations. In both approaches, a boundary condition is introduced to approximate the effects of the evolving surface shape that results in accurate gradient computation.

Nemec, Marian↗

Application of Simulated Annealing and Related Algorithms to TWTA Design

Simulated Annealing (SA) is a stochastic optimization algorithm used to search for global minima in complex design surfaces where exhaustive searches are not computationally feasible. The algorithm is derived by simulating the annealing process, whereby a solid is heated to a liquid state and then cooled slowly to reach thermodynamic equilibrium at each temperature. The idea is that atoms in the solid continually bond and re-bond at various quantum energy levels, and with sufficient cooling time they will rearrange at the minimum energy state to form a perfect crystal. The distribution of energy levels is given by the Boltzmann distribution: as temperature drops, the probability of the presence of high-energy bonds decreases. In searching for an optimal design, local minima and discontinuities are often present in a design surface. SA presents a distinct advantage over other optimization algorithms in its ability to escape from these local minima. Just as high-energy atomic configurations are visited in the actual annealing process in order to eventually reach the minimum energy state, in SA highly non-optimal configurations are visited in order to find otherwise inaccessible global minima. The SA algorithm produces a Markov chain of points in the design space at each temperature, with a monotonically decreasing temperature. A random point is started upon, and the objective function is evaluated at that point. A stochastic perturbation is then made to the parameters of the point to arrive at a proposed new point in the design space, at which the objection function is evaluated as well. If the change in objective function values (Delta)E is negative, the proposed new point is accepted. If (Delta)E is positive, the proposed new point is accepted according to the Metropolis criterion: rho((Delta)f) = exp((-Delta)E/T), where T is the temperature for the current Markov chain. The process then repeats for the remainder of the Markov chain, after which the temperature is decremented and the process repeats. Eventually (and hopefully), a near-globally optimal solution is attained as T approaches zero. Several exciting variants of SA have recently emerged, including Discrete-State Simulated Annealing (DSSA) and Simulated Tempering (ST). The DSSA algorithm takes the thermodynamic analogy one step further by categorizing objective function evaluations into discrete states. In doing so, many of the case-specific problems associated with fine-tuning the SA algorithm can be avoided; for example, theoretical approximations for the initial and final temperature can be derived independently of the case. In this manner, DSSA provides a scheme that is more robust with respect to widely differing design surfaces. ST differs from SA in that the temperature T becomes an additional random variable in the optimization. The system is also kept in equilibrium as the temperature changes, as opposed to the system being driven out of equilibrium as temperature changes in SA. ST is designed to overcome obstacles in design surfaces where numerous local minima are separated by high barriers. These algorithms are incorporated into the optimal design of the traveling-wave tube amplifier (TWTA). The area under scrutiny is the collector, in which it would be ideal to use negative potential to decelerate the spent electron beam to zero kinetic energy just as it reaches the collector surface. In reality this is not plausible due to a number of physical limitations, including repulsion and differing levels of kinetic energy among individual electrons. Instead, the collector is designed with multiple stages depressed below ground potential. The design of this multiple-stage collector is the optimization problem of interest. One remaining problem in SA and DSSA is the difficulty in determining when equilibrium has been reached so that the current Markov chain can be terminated. It has been suggested in recent literature that simulating the thermodynamic properties opecific heat, entropy, and internal energy from the Boltzmann distribution can provide good indicators of having reached equilibrium at a certain temperature. These properties are tested for their efficacy and implemented in SA and DSSA code with respect to TWTA collector optimization.

Radke, Eric M.↗

Aero-Structural Optimization of HSCT Configurations in Transonic and Supersonic Flow

This document outlines the progress made under NASA Cooperative Research Agreement NCC2- 5226 for the period 10/01/97-09/30/98. The work statement originally proposed was meant to extend over the period of two complete years of which only one was funded. Consequently, only a portion of the goals were achieved. Similar work will continue in our group under different sponsorship and will be available in the form of conference and journal publications. The following sections summarize the technical accomplishments obtained during the last year. Details of these accomplishments can be found in the accompanying paper that was presented at the AIAA 37th Aerospace Sciences and Exhibit Meeting which was held in Reno, NV in January of this year. The original proposal outlined a research program meant to lay down the foundation for the development of high-fidelity, fully-coupled aerodynamic/structural optimization methods applicable to a variety of aerospace applications including the design optimization of High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) configurations. The necessary research and development work was divided into two main efforts which addressed the necessities of the long term goal. Initially, our experience in the simulation of unsteady aeroelastic flows was directly applied to existing aerodynamic optimization techniques in order to provide insight into the effects of aeroelastic deformations on the performance of aircraft which have been designed based on purely aerodynamic cost functions. The intention was to follow up this work with a detailed investigation into the basic research work that has to be completed for the development of an optimization framework which efficiently allows the truly coupled design of aero-structural systems. This follow-up effort was not funded. The outcome of our efforts during the past year was the development of a coupled aero-structural analysis and design environment that was applied to the design of a complete aircraft configuration.

Alonso, Juan J.↗