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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 883 records · Page 49

Gauge-invariant TMD factorization for Drell-Yan hadronic tensor at small x

The Drell-Yan hadronic tensor for electromagnetic (EM) current in the Sudakov region s?Q2?q2? is obtained with 1Q2 accuracy. In the leading order in Nc the higher-twist quark-quark-gluon TMDs reduce to leading-twist TMDs due to QCD equation of motion. The resulting tensor for unpolarized hadrons is EM gauge-invariant and depends on two leading-twist TMDs: f1 responsible for total DY cross section, and Boer-Mulders function h?1. The order-of-magnitude estimates of angular distributions for DY process seem to agree with LHC results at corresponding kinematics.

Balitsky, Ian↗

Experimental Study on the Transfer of Cs, Sr, Pu and Water in Concrete for the Estimation of Contamination - 20085

As part of the 'Nuclear Energy Science and Technology and Human Resources Development project- through concentrating wisdom-by MEXT' in Japan, the major results from the second year of a project on the analysis of radionuclide contamination mechanisms of concrete and the estimation of contamination distribution at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station active during 2018-2020 are presented. The transfer of Cs, Sr, Pu, and water through concrete was studied experimentally. In a saturated condition, the clay did not affect the transfer and Cs penetrated much faster than Sr. In the dried condition, clay retarded Cs transfer. Carbonation of the concrete retarded the transfer of Cs and Sr. Pu was expected to be precipitated immediately in a high pH condition of concrete. Water suction depends on the temperature. Further, the detailed mechanism was analyzed by {sup 1}H-NMR. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The impact of spectroscopic incompleteness in direct calibration of redshift distributions for weak lensing surveys

ABSTRACT Obtaining accurate distributions of galaxy redshifts is a critical aspect of weak lensing cosmology experiments. One of the methods used to estimate and validate redshift distributions is to apply weights to a spectroscopic sample, so that their weighted photometry distribution matches the target sample. In this work, we estimate the selection bias in redshift that is introduced in this procedure. We do so by simulating the process of assembling a spectroscopic sample (including observer-assigned confidence flags) and highlight the impacts of spectroscopic target selection and redshift failures. We use the first year (Y1) weak lensing analysis in Dark Energy Survey (DES) as an example data set but the implications generalize to all similar weak lensing surveys. We find that using colour cuts that are not available to the weak lensing galaxies can introduce biases of up to Δz ∼ 0.04 in the weighted mean redshift of different redshift intervals (Δz ∼ 0.015 in the case most relevant to DES). To assess the impact of incompleteness in spectroscopic samples, we select only objects with high observer-defined confidence flags and compare the weighted mean redshift with the true mean. We find that the mean redshift of the DES Y1 weak lensing sample is typically biased at the Δz = 0.005−0.05 level after the weighting is applied. The bias we uncover can have either sign, depending on the samples and redshift interval considered. For the highest redshift bin, the bias is larger than the uncertainties in the other DES Y1 redshift calibration methods, justifying the decision of not using this method for the redshift estimations. We discuss several methods to mitigate this bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Timoshenko beam modeling for parameter estimation of NASA Mini-Mast truss

In this paper a distributed parameter model for the estimation of modal characteristics of NASA Mini-Mast truss is proposed. A closed-form solution of the Timoshenko beam equation, for a uniform cantilevered beam with two concentrated masses, is derived so that the procedure and the computational effort for the estimation of modal characteristics are improved. A maximum likelihood estimator for the Timoshenko beam model is also developed. The resulting estimates from test data by using Timoshenko beam model are found to be comparable to those derived from other approaches.

Shen, Ji Y.↗

Estimating PV power from aggregate power measurements within the distribution grid

The increased integration of photovoltaic (PV) systems in distribution grids reduces visibility and situational awareness for utilities because the PV systems' power production is usually not monitored by them. To address this problem, a method called Contextually Supervised Source Separation (CSSS) has been recently adapted for real-time estimation of aggregate PV active power generation from aggregate net active and reactive power measurements at a point in a radially configured distribution grid (e.g., substation). In its original version, PV disaggregation is formulated as an optimization problem that fits linear regression models for the aggregate PV active power generation and true substation active power load. This paper extends the previous work by adding regularization terms in the objective function to capture additional contextual information such as smoothness, by adding new constraints, by introducing new regressors such as ambient temperature, and by investigating the use of time-varying regressors. Furthermore, we perform extensive parametric analysis to study tuning of the objective function weighting factors in a way that maximizes performance and robustness. The proposed PV disaggregation method can be applied to networks with either a single PV system (e.g., megawatt scale) or many distributed ones (e.g., residential scale) connected downstream of the substation. Simulation studies with real field recorded data show that the enhancements of the proposed method reduce disaggregation error by 58% in winter and 35% in summer compared to previous CSSS-based work. When compared against a commonly used transposition model based approach, the reduction in disaggregation error is more pronounced (78% reduction in winter and 45% in summer). Additional simulations indicate that the proposed algorithm is also applicable for PV systems with time-varying power factors. In conclusion, overall, our results show that—with appropriate modeling and tuning—it is possible to accurately estimate the aggregated PV active power generation of a distribution feeder with minimal or no additional sensor deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Small impact craters in the lunar regolith - Their morphologies, relative ages, and rates of formation

The size frequency distributions, relative ages, and absolute age determination of lunar impact craters ranging in diameter from 1 to 100 m are discussed in relation to present-day and past impact rates. The size frequency distributions of craters produced by impacts on the lunar surface and of craters remaining after degradation with time and later impacts are examined, together with the steady state frequency curves for various crater morphologies. Relations between the relative ages of craters, their morphologies and their diameters are discussed, and the calibration of this kind of relationship with absolute crater ages by the location of individual craters with known absolute ages, diameters and frequency distribution statistics is considered. Estimates of present and past cratering rates based on crater size-frequency distributions are presented which suggest that the rate of impacting objects producing small lunar craters could have been constant over the last 100 million years.

Moore, H. J.↗

Quantifying Uncertainty in Particle Size Distribution Parameters Inferred from SAGE III/ISS Extinction Spectra

Stratospheric aerosols play key roles in the chemistry and radiation balance of the atmosphere and are a key input parameter for global chemistry and climate models. The degree to which aerosols impact chemistry and radiation balance depends primarily on their microphysical properties such as particle size distribution (PSD). The PSD is a mathematical description of the relative abundance of different sized particles within a sampling volume. If the PSD is accurately known then other key modeling parameters (e.g., surface area density) can be derived. Occultation observations from orbital instruments such as SAGE III/ISS have been used to infer these PSD parameters by inverting the extinction coefficient spectra. However, past efforts failed to address two key issues with this methodology: 1. The measurement uncertainty was not accounted for; 2. They assumed the PSDs to be single-mode only, while “real-world” PSDs are predominantly bi-modal. Accounting for both issues in the retrieval will yield an expanded solution space to the inferred PSD parameters; the question is “by how much?” To address this knowledge gap, we propose to carry out a series of simulations and, for every valid SAGE III/ISS data point, determine the range of PSD parameters that yield extinction spectra that are indistinguishable from the SAGE III/ISS data, within the limits of the reported uncertainty. Further, we will expand the solution space, for the first time, to include bimodal distributions. The results of this work will advance Earth system modeling/prediction capability through identifying the uncertainty of PSD parameter estimates using SAGE III/ISS data. The key benefits of this study over previous studies are twofold: 1. we will provide PSD estimates that include bimodal distributions in the solution space, 2. we will provide an uncertainty estimate for these parameters. The results of this study may be used directly in current and future climate and chemistry models.

SAGE III/ISS↗

Delensing the CMB with the cosmic infrared background: the impact of foregrounds

ABSTRACT The most promising avenue for detecting primordial gravitational waves from cosmic inflation is through measurements of degree-scale cosmic microwave background (CMB) B-mode polarization. This approach must face the challenge posed by gravitational lensing of the CMB, which obscures the signal of interest. Fortunately, the lensing effects can be partially removed by combining high-resolution E-mode measurements with an estimate of the projected matter distribution. For near-future experiments, the best estimate of the latter will arise from co-adding internal reconstructions (derived from the CMB itself) with external tracers such as the cosmic infrared background (CIB). In this work, we characterize how foregrounds impact the delensing procedure when CIB intensity, I, is used as the matter tracer. We find that higher point functions of the CIB and Galactic dust such as 〈BEI〉c and 〈EIEI〉c can, in principle, bias the power spectrum of delensed B-modes. To quantify these, we first estimate the dust residuals in currently available CIB maps and upcoming, foreground-cleaned Simons Observatory CMB data. Then, using non-Gaussian simulations of Galactic dust – extrapolated to the relevant frequencies, assuming the spectral index of polarized dust emission to be fixed at the value determined by Planck – we show that the bias to any primordial signal is small compared to statistical errors for ground-based experiments, but might be significant for space-based experiments probing very large angular scales. However, mitigation techniques based on multifrequency cleaning appear to be very effective. We also show, by means of an analytical model, that the bias arising from the higher point functions of the CIB itself ought to be negligible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mapping Soil Cation‐Exchange Capacity using Bayesian Modeling and Proximal Sensors at the Field Scale

Core Ideas A Bayesian inference approach (INLA‐SPDE) was used to map topsoil and subsoil CEC. DEM, gamma‐ray spectrometer and EM induction data were combined to map CEC. Posterior marginal distributions of the model parameters and responses were estimated. Gamma‐ray data performed best in the topsoil, followed by DUALEM421S and elevation. Elevation data performed best in the subsoil, followed by gamma‐ray and DUALEM421S. Cation exchange capacity (CEC) affects soil fertility, acidity, and structural resilience. This is particularly the case in sugarcane growing areas of Australia because the soil there is sandy (>60%), strongly acidic (pH < 5.5), and strongly sodic (exchangeable sodium percentage [ESP] > 15%). Unfortunately, obtaining information on CEC at the field extent is time‐consuming and expensive. Here, we used a digital soil mapping approach to add value to limited (40) topsoil (0–0.3 m) and subsoil (0.6–0.9 m) CEC information. We first collected proximally sensed ancillary data from three sources, including a digital elevation model (DEM), γ‐ray (γ‐ray) spectrometer (RS700) and electromagnetic (EM) induction instruments. We then use a Bayesian inference approach (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation with Stochastic Partial Differential Equation, INLA‐SPDE) implemented in R software to model the CEC and ancillary data. Accuracy (RMSE), bias (ME), and concordance (Lin's) of models were also generated from the different sources of ancillary data, either in combination or alone. We concluded, overall, that the INLA–SPDE approach could provide estimations of the posterior marginal distributions of the model parameters as well as the model responses as reported by other researchers. We also concluded that using the ancillary data sources in combination was most accurate (e.g., RMSE = 0.72) to predict CEC, least biased (e.g., ME = 0.07) and had the highest concordance (e.g., Lin's = 0.69) in both the topsoil and subsoil than using the ancillary data alone. The best ancillary data, when used alone for mapping CEC in the topsoil, was γ‐ray spectrometry, followed by EM data and elevation. For subsoil CEC, it was elevation, followed by γ‐ray spectrometry and then soil electrical conductivity (EC a ) data. The maps of the credibility interval (CI) indicated that better predictions were achieved in the topsoil and indicated where improvements in prediction could be achieved in the subsoil.

Li, Nan↗

Revisiting Source Convergence Diagnostics in the KENO Monte Carlo Neutron Transport Codes [Abstract]

Monte Carlo criticality transport codes, which rely on the power iteration procedure, are a fundamental tool for nuclear criticality safety practitioners in assessing the neutron multiplication factor (k eff ) for problems involving fissile material. In these calculations, ensuring the convergence of both the fission source distributions and the k eff estimate for accurate results is crucial. However, a converged k eff estimate does not necessarily mean the fission source distribution is also converged because the fission source and flux distribution may continue to evolve even after k eff convergence. Therefore, most Monte Carlo transport criticality codes now offer various diagnostic tests to assess fission source convergence in addition to the k eff convergence by analyzing the trends of these quantities over multiple generations.

AZURE↗

Constraining the Milky Way Mass Profile with Phase-space Distribution of Satellite Galaxies

We estimate the Milky Way (MW) halo properties using satellite kinematic data including the latest measurements from Gaia DR2. With a simulation-based 6D phase-space distribution function (DF) of satellite kinematics, we can infer halo properties efficiently and without bias, and handle the selection function and measurement errors rigorously in the Bayesian framework. Applying our DF from the EAGLE simulation to 28 satellites, we obtain an MW halo mass of $M={1.23}_{-0.18}^{+0.21}\times {10}^{12}{M}_{\odot }$ and a concentration of $c={9.4}_{-2.1}^{+2.8}$ with the prior based on the M–c relation. The inferred mass profile is consistent with previous measurements but with better precision and reliability due to the improved methodology and data. Potential improvement is illustrated by combining satellite data and stellar rotation curves. Using our EAGLE DF and best-fit MW potential, we provide much more precise estimates of the kinematics for those satellites with uncertain measurements. Compared to the EAGLE DF, which matches the observed satellite kinematics very well, the DF from the semi-analytical model based on the dark-matter-only simulation Millennium II (SAM-MII) over-represents satellites with small radii and velocities. We attribute this difference to less disruption of satellites with small pericenter distances in the SAM-MII simulation. Finally, by varying the disruption rate of such satellites in this simulation, we estimate a ~5% scatter in the inferred MW halo mass among hydrodynamics-based simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fusion techniques using distributed Kalman filtering for detecting changes in systems

A comparison is made of the performances of two detection strategies that are based on different data fusion techniques. The strategies detect changes in a linear system. One detection strategy involves combining the estimates and error covariance matrices of distributed Kalman filters, generating a residual from the used estimates, comparing this residual to a threshold, and making a decision. The other detection strategy involves a distributed decision process in which estimates from distributed Kalman filters are used to generate distributed residuals which are compared locally to a threshold. Local decisions are made and these decisions are then fused into a global decision. The performances of each of these detection schemes are compared, and it is concluded that better performance is achieved when local decisions are made and then fused into a global decision.

Belcastro, Celeste M.↗

LACIE performance predictor final operational capability program description, volume 3

The requirements and processing logic for the LACIE Error Model program (LEM) are described. This program is an integral part of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) system. LEM is that portion of the LPP (LACIE Performance Predictor) which simulates the sample segment classification, strata yield estimation, and production aggregation. LEM controls repetitive Monte Carlo trials based on input error distributions to obtain statistical estimates of the wheat area, yield, and production at different levels of aggregation. LEM interfaces with the rest of the LPP through a set of data files.

Source record↗

The terrestrial cratering record. II - The crater production rate

The terrestrial crater production rate is estimated from a compilation of the locations and ages of proven and probable terrestrial impact craters and compared with that calculated from astronomical observations and for other planets. The estimated size-frequency distribution of craters greater than 20 km in diameter formed during the Phanerozoic, a -2 power law, is similar to the distributions of lunar and Martian craters. The North American and East European cratons are estimated to have cratering rates of craters greater than 20 km of 0.36 x 10 to the -14/sq km yr and 0.33 x 10 to the -14/sq km yr, respectively, in good agreement with previous estimates and observations of Apollo bodies. Comparisons with the lunar rate indicate that the lunar and terrestrial rates overlap if the cratering flux had been constant over the last 3.4 billion years, however if a constant rate was not reached until 3.0 to 2.5 billion years ago, the lunar rate would have been half that of the terrestrial rate.

Grieve, R. A. F.↗

A validation methodology for fault-tolerant clock synchronization

A validation method for the synchronization subsystem of a fault-tolerant computer system is presented. The high reliability requirement of flight crucial systems precludes the use of most traditional validation methods. The method presented utilizes formal design proof to uncover design and coding errors and experimentation to validate the assumptions of the design proof. The experimental method is described and illustrated by validating an experimental implementation of the Software Implemented Fault Tolerance (SIFT) clock synchronization algorithm. The design proof of the algorithm defines the maximum skew between any two nonfaulty clocks in the system in terms of theoretical upper bounds on certain system parameters. The quantile to which each parameter must be estimated is determined by a combinatorial analysis of the system reliability. The parameters are measured by direct and indirect means, and upper bounds are estimated. A nonparametric method based on an asymptotic property of the tail of a distribution is used to estimate the upper bound of a critical system parameter. Although the proof process is very costly, it is extremely valuable when validating the crucial synchronization subsystem.

Johnson, S. C.↗

On adaptive weighted polynomial preconditioning for Hermitian positive definite matrices

The conjugate gradient algorithm for solving Hermitian positive definite linear systems is usually combined with preconditioning in order to speed up convergence. In recent years, there has been a revival of polynomial preconditioning, motivated by the attractive features of the method on modern architectures. Standard techniques for choosing the preconditioning polynomial are based only on bounds for the extreme eigenvalues. Here a different approach is proposed, which aims at adapting the preconditioner to the eigenvalue distribution of the coefficient matrix. The technique is based on the observation that good estimates for the eigenvalue distribution can be derived after only a few steps of the Lanczos process. This information is then used to construct a weight function for a suitable Chebyshev approximation problem. The solution of this problem yields the polynomial preconditioner. In particular, we investigate the use of Bernstein-Szego weights.

Fischer, Bernd↗

Combining a land surface model with groundwater model calibration to assess the impacts of groundwater pumping in a mountainous desert basin

The quantification of recharge and trans-valley underflow is needed in arid regions to estimate the impacts of new water withdrawals on the water table. However, for mountainous desert areas, such estimates are highly challenging, due to data scarcity, heterogeneous soils, and long residence times. Conventional assessment employs isolated groundwater models configured with simplified uniform estimates of recharge. Here, we employed a data-constrained surface-subsurface process model to provide an ensemble of spatially distributed recharge and underflow estimates using perturbed parameters. Then, the Model-Independent Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification (PEST) package was used to calibrate the aquifer hydraulic conductivity field in MODFLOW for this ensemble and reject implausible recharge values. This novel dual-model approach, broadly applicable to mountainous arid regions, was designed to maximally exploit available data sources. It can assimilate groundwater head observations, reject unrealistic parameters, and narrow the range of estimated drawdowns due to pumping. We applied this approach to the Chuckwalla basin in California, USA to determine natural recharge. Simulated recharge concentrates along alluvial fans at the mountain fronts and ephemeral washes where run-off water infiltrates. If an evenly distributed recharge was employed as in conventional studies, it would result in regional biases in estimated drawdown and larger uncertainty bounds. Here, we also note that the speed of groundwater recovery does not guarantee sustainability: heavy pumping induces large hydraulic gradients that initially recover quickly when pumping is halted, but the system may not ultimately recover to pre-pumping levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation of radar reflectivity and surface measurements of rainfall

Raindrop size distributions (RSDs) are often estimated using surface raindrop sampling devices (e.g., disdrometers) or optical array (2D-PMS) probes. A number of authors have used these measured distributions to compute certain higher-order RSD moments that correspond to radar reflectivity, attenuation, optical extinction, etc. Scatter plots of these RSD moments versus disdrometer-measured rainrates are then used to deduce physical relationships between radar reflectivity, attenuation, etc., which are measured by independent instruments (e.g., radar), and rainrate. In this paper RSDs of the gamma form as well as radar reflectivity (via time series simulation) are simulated to study the correlation structure of radar estimates versus rainrate as opposed to RSD moment estimates versus rainrate. The parameters N0, D0 and m of a gamma distribution are varied over the range normally found in rainfall, as well as varying the device sampling volume. The simulations are used to explain some possible features related to discrepancies which can arise when radar rainfall measurements are compared with surface or aircraft-based sampling devices.

Chandrasekar, V.↗