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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Geospatial Cost Comparison of CO2 Plume Geothermal (CPG) Power and Geologic CO2 Storage

CO 2 Plume Geothermal (CPG) power plants can use gigatonne-levels of CO 2 sequestration to generate electricity, but it is unknown if the resources that support low-cost CPG power align with the resources that support low-cost CO 2 sequestration. Here, we estimate and compare the geospatially-distributed cost of CPG and CO 2 storage across a portion of North America. We find that the locations with lowest-cost CO 2 storage are different than the locations with lowest-cost CPG. There are also locations with low-cost CO 2 storage (<$5/tCO 2 ) that do not support CPG power generation due to insufficient reservoir transmissivity or temperature. Thus, CPG development may require electricity prices that are greater than the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) to offset the increased cost of sequestration. We introduce the “Additional Cost of Electricity (ACOE)” metric to account for this cost and add it to the LCOE to calculate breakeven electricity prices that are required for CPG development. We find that breakeven prices are lower when new CO 2 injection wells are drilled specifically for CPG (i.e., “greenfield” CPG development) compared to if only existing CO 2 sequestration injection wells are used (i.e., “brownfield” CPG development). This is because comparatively few wells are needed for sequestration-only, and the increased power capacity from having more CPG wells outweighs the increased costs from more drilling. We also find that sequestered CO 2 could be used to approximately triple the United States geothermal electricity power capacity via a single CPG “sweet spot” in South Dakota, but that breakeven electricity price for this development is on the order of $200/MW e h.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI Mg II Absorbers: Extinction Characteristics and Quasar Redshift Accuracy

In this paper, we study how absorption-line systems affect the spectra and redshifts of quasi-stellar objects (QSOs), using catalogs of Mg II absorbers from the early data release and first data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument. We determine the reddening effect of an absorption system by fitting an unreddened template spectrum to a sample of 50,674 QSO spectra that contain Mg II absorbers. We find that reddening caused by intervening absorbers (v off > 3500 km s −1 ) has an average color excess of $\overline{E(B-V)}$ = 0.04 mag. We find that the E(B − V) tends to be greater for absorbers at low redshifts, or those having Mg II absorption lines with higher equivalent widths, but shows no clear trend with v off for intervening systems. However, the $\overline{E(B-V)}$ of associated absorbers, those at v off < 3500 km s −1 , shows a strong trend with v off , increasing rapidly with decreasing v off and peaking (∼0.15 mag) around v off = 0 km s −1 . We demonstrate that Mg II absorbers impact redshift estimation for QSOs by investigating the distributions of v off for associated absorbers. We find that at z > 1.5, these distributions broaden and bifurcate in a nonphysical manner. In an effort to mitigate this effect, we mask pixels associated with the Mg II absorption lines and recalculate the QSO redshifts. We find that we can recover voff populations in better agreement with those for z < 1.5 absorbers and in doing so typically shift background QSO redshifts by Δz ≈ ± 0.005.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep Spectroscopy with DESI for Photometric Redshift Training and Calibration

Deep spectroscopic samples can improve photometric redshift (photo-z) estimates and reduce uncertainties on redshift distributions. Such improvements can increase the cosmological constraining power of large imaging-based experiments such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and mitigate what may be a limiting systematic effect. We present results from the “DESI-Deep pilot” program, which was designed to assess the capability of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) on the 4m Mayall telescope to measure redshifts of galaxies as faint as expected lensing samples for early LSST data (m i ≤ 24.5). We find that DESI is remarkably efficient at this task, with redshift success rates comparable to the results of observations from 10 m class telescopes with only ∼2 × longer integration time (rather than ∼8 × longer as would be expected from aperture-area scaling), while simultaneously achieving ∼30 times larger multiplexing. We also find that the signal-to-noise ratio of the spectra scales as expected for background-limited observations even for the longest exposure times (∼7 hr) and faintest targets in the program. These results demonstrate that DESI could provide the definitive redshift sample for the early years of LSST with a modest investment of observing time. Based upon the results of this program, we provide updated predictions for the time required to collect benchmark samples for photo-z training and calibration using a variety of spectroscopic facilities. Finally, we describe a potential “DESI-Deep” survey designed to train and calibrate photo-z’s for imaging experiments, and provide forecasts of its impact on cosmological inference.

Dey, Biprateep [University of Toronto; University ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Study of the Cosmic Rays and Interstellar Medium in Local H I Clouds Using Fermi -LAT Gamma-Ray Observations

An accurate estimate of the interstellar gas density distribution is crucial to understanding the interstellar medium (ISM) and Galactic cosmic rays (CRs). To comprehend the ISM and CRs in a local environment, a study of the diffuse $γ$-ray emission in a midlatitude region of the third quadrant was performed. Specifically, the $γ$-ray data in the 0.1–25.6 GeV energy range of the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) and other interstellar gas tracers such as the HI4PI survey data and the Planck dust thermal emission model were used, and the northern and southern regions were analyzed separately. The variation of the dust emission D em with the total neutral gas column density N H was studied in high dust temperature areas, and the N H /D em ratio was calibrated using $γ$-ray data under the assumption of a uniform CR intensity in the studied regions. The measured integrated $γ$-ray emissivities above 100 MeV are (1.58 ± 0.04) x 10 -26 photons s -1 sr -1 H-atom-1 and (1.59 ± 0.02) x 10-26 photons s-1 sr-1 H-atom -1 in the northern and southern regions, respectively, supporting the existence of a uniform CR intensity in the vicinity of the solar system. While most of the gas can be interpreted to be H I with a spin temperature of T S = 125 K or higher, an area dominated by optically thick H I with T S ~ 40 K was identified.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the Galactic Neutron Star Population for Use in Continuous Gravitational-wave Searches

Searches for continuous gravitational waves (GW) from unknown Galactic neutron stars provide limits on the shapes of neutron stars. A rotating neutron star will produce GW if asymmetric deformations exist in its structure that are characterized by the star's ellipticity. Here, in this study, we use a simple model of the spatial and spin distribution of Galactic neutron stars to estimate the total number of neutron stars probed, using GW, to a given upper limit on the ellipticity. This may help optimize future searches with improved sensitivity. The improved sensitivity of third-generation GW detectors may increase the number of neutron stars probed, to a given ellipticity, by factors of 100 to 1000.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simultaneous Observation of Ion-scale Wave Packets with Opposite Polarizations and Their Implications on the Generation Region in the Inner Heliosphere

This paper reports a dispersion analysis of two wave packets simultaneously observed near the local proton gyrofrequency by the Parker Solar Probe. The observed wave event exhibits clear two-banded wave packets both propagating along the magnetic field, characterized by left-handed (L-mode) and right-handed (R-mode) polarizations simultaneously. By incorporating the Doppler shift effect into a linear dispersion analysis, we find two possible scenarios that explain these simultaneous opposite polarizations: (1) Two inherently L-mode waves in the plasma frame, propagate parallel and antiparallel to the solar wind velocity, with similar wave frequencies and wave numbers. The polarization of the antiparallel propagating wave reverses as it moves sunward in the plasma frame while still comoving with the solar wind in the stationary frame. This reversal manifests the polarization of the wave as an R-mode in the spacecraft frame. (2) Simultaneous L-mode and R-mode waves propagate parallel to the solar wind velocity, with different wave frequencies and wave numbers. Concurrent proton observations during the wave event reveal a dominant anisotropic ($T$⟂/$T$ ∥ > 1) core distribution with a drifting beam population. Estimation of the linear growth rate for both L-mode and R-mode waves suggests that both scenarios are plausible, indicating that the observation is near the wave-generation region. We explore the potential impact of these simultaneous waves on solar wind heating and scattering effects, hypothesizing that such waves might enhance efficiency compared to waves with a single wave packet, contingent upon the statistical significance of such waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Massive and Distant Clusters of WISE Survey. I. Survey Overview and a Catalog of >2000 Galaxy Clusters at z ≃ 1

We introduce the Massive and Distant Clusters of WISE Survey (MaDCoWS), a search for galaxy clusters at 0.7 ≲ z ≲ 1.5 based upon data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) mission. MaDCoWS is the first cluster survey capable of discovering massive clusters at these redshifts over the full extragalactic sky. The search is divided into two regions—the region of the extragalactic sky covered by Pan-STARRS (δ > –30°) and the remainder of the southern extragalactic sky at δ < –30° for which shallower optical data from the SuperCOSMOS Sky Survey is available. Here, we describe the search algorithm, characterize the sample, and present the first MaDCoWS data release—catalogs of the 2433 highest amplitude detections in the WISE–Pan-STARRS region and the 250 highest amplitude detections in the WISE –SuperCOSMOS region. A total of 1723 of the detections from the WISE –Pan-STARRS sample have also been observed with the Spitzer Space Telescope , providing photometric redshifts and richnesses, and an additional 64 detections within the WISE –SuperCOSMOS region also have photometric redshifts and richnesses. Spectroscopic redshifts for 38 MaDCoWS clusters with IRAC photometry demonstrate that the photometric redshifts have an uncertainty of σ z /(1 + z) ≃ 0.036. Combining the richness measurements with Sunyaev–Zel'dovich observations of MaDCoWS clusters, we also present a preliminary mass–richness relation that can be used to infer the approximate mass distribution of the full sample. The estimated median mass for the WISE–Pan-STARRS catalog is ${M}_{500}={1.6}_{-0.8}^{+0.7}\times {10}^{14}\,{M}_{\odot }$, with the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich data confirming that we detect clusters with masses up to M 500 ~ 5 × 10 14 M ⊙ (M 200 ~ 10 15 M ⊙ ).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Three-dimensional Collapse of a Rapidly Rotating 16 M ⊙ Star

I report on the three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic evolution of a rapidly rotating 16 M ⊙ star to iron core collapse. For the first time, I follow the 3D evolution of the angular momentum (AM) distribution in the iron core and convective shell burning regions for the final 10 minutes up to and including gravitational instability and core collapse. In 3D, convective regions show efficient AM transport that leads to an AM profile that differs in shape and magnitude from MESA within a few shell convective turnover timescales. For different progenitor models, such as those with tightly coupled Si/O convective shells, efficient AM transport in 3D simulations could lead to a significantly different AM distribution in the stellar interior affecting estimates of the natal neutron star or black hole spin. The results suggest that 3D AM transport in convective and rotating shell burning regions are critical components in models of massive stars and could qualitatively alter the explosion outcome and inferred compact remnant properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying uncertainty in Pareto estimates of global lake area

This software contains the code for Bayesian uncertainty analysis of global lake area. Computed uncertainties are compared against more conventional estimation using lake size-abundance distributions. Routines are included to explore sensitivity to observational errors and ad-hoc "censoring" strategies.

Stachelek, Jemma↗
DOE OSTI2017

Risk Assessment and Management of Uranium Mill Tailings Legacies - 17508

exploitation activities took place at 61 sites. The great majority of these mining sites are located in central-east Portugal, including the Urgeirica mine that was the most important uranium deposit exploited in the country. The mining activities at this site generated 1.6 million m{sup 3} of radioactive wastes disposed in an open air area originating the largest radioactive tailings pile of the country. The environmental remediation of the Urgeirica site was one of the main priorities of the national plan for the rehabilitation of former uranium mining sites. Site remediation, that included the mine industrial area with several support infrastructures and a processing plant, was executed between 2006 and 2008 (1. phase) and between 2008 and 2014 (2. phase). Nevertheless, the environmental rehabilitation of the Portuguese uranium legacies sites is not yet concluded. One of the last largest mining complexes, the Quinta do Bispo open pit, is scheduled to be rehabilitated only in 2020. This work presents a study to evaluate the environmental impacts from the uranium mill tailings legacies before and after the remediation works, focusing on two different approaches: a deterministic methodology for dose assessment and a probabilistic methodology with the Monte Carlo method to estimate the incremental lifetime risk. Probabilistic distributions of the input parameters were used in the risk calculation approach. The methodology for dose and risk assessments may be applied to other sites that are still under intervention and the results may be used to prioritize the remediation stages. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of a Class of Simple and Effective Uncertainty Methods for Sparse Samples of Random Variables and Functions

When very few samples of a random quantity are available from a source distribution of unknown shape, it is usually not possible to accurately infer the exact distribution from which the data samples come. Under-estimation of important quantities such as response variance and failure probabilities can result. For many engineering purposes, including design and risk analysis, we attempt to avoid under-estimation with a strategy to conservatively estimate (bound) these types of quantities -- without being overly conservative -- when only a few samples of a random quantity are available from model predictions or replicate experiments. This report examines a class of related sparse-data uncertainty representation and inference approaches that are relatively simple, inexpensive, and effective. Tradeoffs between the methods' conservatism, reliability, and risk versus number of data samples (cost) are quantified with multi-attribute metrics use d to assess method performance for conservative estimation of two representative quantities: central 95% of response; and 10 -4 probability of exceeding a response threshold in a tail of the distribution. Each method's performance is characterized with 10,000 random trials on a large number of diverse and challenging distributions. The best method and number of samples to use in a given circumstance depends on the uncertainty quantity to be estimated, the PDF character, and the desired reliability of bounding the true value. On the basis of this large data base and study, a strategy is proposed for selecting the method and number of samples for attaining reasonable credibility levels in bounding these types of quantities when sparse samples of random variables or functions are available from experiments or simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neumann Series Based Voltage Sensitivity Analysis for Three Phase Distribution System

In this letter, a simplified voltage sensitivity analysis technique that can provide accurate estimates of voltage change across the network for a given change in bus power injections in a three-phase unbalanced distribution network is proposed. This technique is derived from the first-order approximation of the Neumann series, which allows maintaining the accuracy of the solution while the computational effort is reduced. Here, the proposed technique is tested on a 559-bus unbalanced distribution system with multiple distributed generation resources. The results show that the average error in the voltage estimates with the proposed method is not more than 0.3% with the execution time of similar order relative to the state-of-the-art sensitivity analysis methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

A NEW ELECTRON-DENSITY MODEL FOR ESTIMATION OF PULSAR AND FRB DISTANCES

We present a new model for the distribution of free electrons in the Galaxy, the Magellanic Clouds, and the intergalactic medium (IGM) that can be used to estimate distances to real or simulated pulsars and fast radio bursts (FRBs) based on their dispersion measure (DM). The Galactic model has an extended thick disk representing the so-called warm interstellar medium, a thin disk representing the Galactic molecular ring, spiral arms based on a recent fit to Galactic H ii regions, a Galactic Center disk, and seven local features including the Gum Nebula, Galactic Loop I, and the Local Bubble. An offset of the Sun from the Galactic plane and a warp of the outer Galactic disk are included in the model. Parameters of the Galactic model are determined by fitting to 189 pulsars with independently determined distances and DMs. Simple models are used for the Magellanic Clouds and the IGM. Galactic model distances are within the uncertainty range for 86 of the 189 independently determined distances and within 20% of the nearest limit for a further 38 pulsars. We estimate that 95% of predicted Galactic pulsar distances will have a relative error of less than a factor of 0.9. The predictions of YMW16 are compared to those of the TC93 and NE2001 models showing that YMW16 performs significantly better on all measures. Timescales for pulse broadening due to interstellar scattering are estimated for (real or simulated) Galactic and Magellanic Cloud pulsars and FRBs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantile-Dependent Expressivity of Serum Uric Acid Concentrations

“Quantile-dependent expressivity” occurs when the effect size of a genetic variant depends upon whether the phenotype (e.g., serum uric acid) is high or low relative to its distribution. Analyses were performed to test whether serum uric acid heritability is quantile-specific and whether this could explain some reported gene-environment interactions. Methods. Serum uric acid concentrations were analyzed from 2151 sibships and 12,068 offspring-parent pairs from the Framingham Heart Study. Quantile-specific heritability from offspring-parent regression slopes (β OP , h 2 = 2β OP /(1 + r spouse )) and full-sib regression slopes (β FS ,h 2 = {(1 + 8r spouse β FS ) 0.5 - 1}/(2r spouse ) was robustly estimated by quantile regression with nonparametric significance assigned from 1000 bootstrap samples. Results. Quantile-specific h 2 (±SE) increased with increasing percentiles of the offspring’s sex- and age-adjusted uric acid distribution when estimated from β OP (P trend = 0.001): 0.34 ± 0.03 at the 10th, 0.36 ± 0.03 at the 25th, 0.41 ± 0.03 at the 50th, 0.46 ± 0.04 at the 75th, and 0.49 ± 0.05 at the 90th percentile and when estimated from β FS (P trend = 0.006). This is consistent with the larger genetic effect size of (1) the SLC2A9 rs11722228 polymorphism in gout patients vs. controls, (2) the ABCG2 rs2231142 polymorphism in men vs. women, (3) the SLC2A9 rs13113918 polymorphism in obese patients prior to bariatric surgery vs. two-year postsurgery following 29 kg weight loss, (4) the ABCG2 rs6855911 polymorphism in obese vs. nonobese women, and (5) the LRP2 rs2544390 polymorphism in heavier drinkers vs. abstainers. Quantile-dependent expressivity may also explain the larger genetic effect size of an SLC2A9/PKD2/ABCG2 haplotype for high vs. low intakes of alcohol, chicken, or processed meats. Conclusions. Heritability of serum uric acid concentrations is quantile-specific.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantile-dependent expressivity of plasma adiponectin concentrations may explain its sex-specific heritability, gene-environment interactions, and genotype-specific response to postprandial lipemia

“Quantile-dependent expressivity” occurs when the effect size of a genetic variant depends upon whether the phenotype (e.g. adiponectin) is high or low relative to its distribution. We have previously shown that the heritability ( h 2 ) of adiposity, lipoproteins, postprandial lipemia, pulmonary function, and coffee and alcohol consumption are quantile-specific. Whether adiponectin heritability is quantile specific remains to be determined. Plasma adiponectin concentrations from 4,182 offspring-parent pairs and 1,662 sibships from the Framingham Heart Study were analyzed. Quantile-specific heritability from offspring-parent (β OP , h 2 = 2 β OP /(1 + r spouse )) and full-sib regression slopes ( β FS , h 2 = {(1 + 8r spouse β FS ) 0.05 -1}/(2r spouse )) were robustly estimated by quantile regression with nonparametric significance assigned from 1,000 bootstrap samples. Quantile-specific h 2 (± SE) increased with increasing percentiles of the offspring’s age- and sex-adjusted adiponectin distribution when estimated from β OP ( P trend = 2.2 × 10 -6 ): 0.30 ± 0.03 at the 10th, 0.33 ± 0.04 at the 25th, 0.43 ± 0.04 at the 50th, 0.55 ± 0.05 at the 75th, and 0.57 ± 0.08 at the 90th percentile, and when estimated from β FS (P trend = 7.6 × 10 -7 ): 0.42 ± 0.03 at the 10th, 0.44 ± 0.04 at the 25th, 0.56 ± 0.05 at the 50th, 0.73 ± 0.08 at the 75th, and 0.79 ± 0.11 at the 90th percentile. Consistent with quantile-dependent expressivity, adiponectin’s: (1) heritability was greater in women in accordance with their higher adiponection concentrations; (2) relationships to ADIPOQ polymorphisms were modified by adiposity in accordance with its adiponectin-lowering effect; (3) response to rosiglitazone was predicted by the 45T> G ADIPOQ polymorphism; (4) difference by ADIPOQ haplotypes increased linearly with increasing postprandial adiponectin concentrations. Adiponectin heritability is quantile dependent, which may explain sex-specific heritability, gene-environment and gene-drug interactions, and postprandial response by haplotypes.

Postprandial↗
DOE OSTI2018

Sequential Mitigation Solutions to Enable Distributed PV Grid Integration: Preprint

This paper provides a method to assess the impact of multiple mitigation solutions including distribution grid upgrades and advanced control technologies on increasing distributed PV penetration in distribution feeders, and thus paves the way to estimate the costs needed for reaching certain PV penetration level. Based on three assumptions of creating increasing PV penetration scenarios, this paper first studies the distribution impact of PV power and quantifies the PV hosting capacity in distribution feeders. Then, it studies multiple mitigation solutions to increase PV penetration on distribution feeders. These mitigation solutions are implemented in a sequential manner according to their typical costs. The proposed study is demonstrated on two representative distribution feeders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Impact of Behind-the-Meter Heterogeneous Distributed Energy Resources on Distribution Grids

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) on the electric grid brings new challenges and opportunities for utility grid operations. With the rapid deployment of DERs, there is emerging interest in integrating these controllable devices with utility operations at all levels for monitoring and management. To understand the challenges with increasing behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs and to identify the needs in deploying advanced controls, a comprehensive grid impact study is indispensable. This paper presents the analysis which help visualize the DER impact on the grid, identify the challenges and provides an insight into the new distribution management and control needs to enable reliable and resilient grid operations.

behind-the-meter↗