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At least 883 records · Page 49

Evaluation of energy balance closure adjustment methods by independent evapotranspiration estimates from lysimeters and hydrological simulations

Here, we report non-closure of the surface energy balance is a frequently observed phenomenon of hydrometeorological field measurements, when using the eddy-covariance method, which can be ascribed to an underestimation of the turbulent fluxes. Several approaches have been proposed in order to adjust the measured fluxes for this apparent systematic error. However, there are uncertainties about partitioning of the energy balance residual between the sensible and latent heat flux and whether such a correction should be applied on 30-minute data or longer time scales. The data for this study originate from two grassland sites in southern Germany, where measurements from weighable lysimeters are available as reference. The adjusted evapotranspiration rates are also compared with joint energy and water balance simulations using a physically-based distributed hydrological model. We evaluate two adjustment methods: the first one preserves the Bowen ratio and the correction factor is determined on a daily basis. The second one attributes a smaller portion of the residual energy to the latent heat flux than to the sensible heat flux for closing the energy balance for every 30-minute flux integration interval. Both methods lead to an improved agreement of the eddy-covariance based fluxes with the independent lysimeter estimates and the physically-based model simulations. The first method results in a better comparability of evapotranspiration rates, and the second method leads to a smaller overall bias. These results are similar between both sites despite considerable differences in terrain complexity and grassland management. Moreover, we found that a daily adjustment factor leads to less scatter than a complete partitioning of the residual for every half-hour time interval. Lastly, the vertical temperature gradient in the surface layer and friction velocity were identified as important predictors for a potential future parameterization of the energy balance residual.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Data Fusion and Mining Techniques to Map Water Use and Drought across Spatial and Temporal Scales

As the world’s water resources come under increasing tension due to dual stressors of climate change and population growth, accurate knowledge of water consumption through evapotranspiration (ET) over a range in spatial scales will be critical in developing adaptation strategies. Remote sensing methods for monitoring consumptive water use (e.g, ET) are becoming increasingly important, especially in areas of significant water and food insecurity. One method to estimate ET from satellite-based methods, the Atmosphere Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model uses the change in mid-morning land surface temperature to estimate the partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes which are then used to estimate daily ET. This presentation will outline several recent enhancements to the ALEXI modeling system, with a focus on global ET and drought monitoring. Until recently, ALEXI has been limited to areas with high resolution temporal sampling of geostationary sensors. The use of geostationary sensors makes global mapping a complicated process, especially for real-time applications, as data from as many as five different sensors are required to be ingested and harmonized to create a global mosaic. However, our research team has developed a new and novel method of using twice-daily observations from polar-orbiting sensors such as MODIS and VIIRS to estimate the mid-morning rise in LST that is used to drive the energy balance estimations within ALEXI. This allows the method to be applied globally using a single sensor (in this case, initially MODIS with a planned transition to VIIRS) rather than a global compositing of all available geostationary data. Other advantages of this new method include the higher spatial resolution provided by MODIS and VIIRS and the increased sampling at high latitudes where oblique view angles limit the utility of geostationary sensors. This presentation will focus on global applications for mapping water use and drought using data mining and data fusion across spatial scales extending from 5-km to 30-m “field-scale” estimates.

Christopher Hain↗

Practical Aspects of the Equation-Error Method for Aircraft Parameter Estimation

Various practical aspects of the equation-error approach to aircraft parameter estimation were examined. The analysis was based on simulated flight data from an F-16 nonlinear simulation, with realistic noise sequences added to the computed aircraft responses. This approach exposes issues related to the parameter estimation techniques and results, because the true parameter values are known for simulation data. The issues studied include differentiating noisy time series, maximum likelihood parameter estimation, biases in equation-error parameter estimates, accurate computation of estimated parameter error bounds, comparisons of equation-error parameter estimates with output-error parameter estimates, analyzing data from multiple maneuvers, data collinearity, and frequency-domain methods.

Morelli, Eugene a.↗

Cloud Tolerance of Remote-Sensing Technologies to Measure Land Surface Temperature

Conventional methods to estimate land surface temperature (LST) from space rely on the thermal infrared(TIR) spectral window and is limited to cloud-free scenes. To also provide LST estimates during periods with clouds, a new method was developed to estimate LST based on passive microwave(MW) observations. The MW-LST product is informed by six polar-orbiting satellites to create a global record with up to eight observations per day for each 0.25resolution grid box. For days with sufficient observations, a continuous diurnal temperature cycle (DTC) was fitted. The main characteristics of the DTC were scaled to match those of a geostationary TIR-LST product. This paper tests the cloud tolerance of the MW-LST product. In particular, we demonstrate its stable performance with respect to flux tower observation sites (four in Europe and nine in the United States), over a range of cloudiness conditions up to heavily overcast skies. The results show that TIR based LST has slightly better performance than MW-LST for clear-sky observations but suffers an increasing negative bias as cloud cover increases. This negative bias is caused by incomplete masking of cloud-covered areas within the TIR scene that affects many applications of TIR-LST. In contrast, for MW-LST we find no direct impact of clouds on its accuracy and bias. MW-LST can therefore be used to improve TIR cloud screening. Moreover, the ability to provide LST estimates for cloud-covered surfaces can help expand current clear-sky-only satellite retrieval products to all-weather applications.

polar-orbiting↗

Crop Stem Width Estimation in Highly Cluttered Field Environment

We present two methods for estimation of crop stem width on small mobile robots. Stem width is an important phenotype needed by breeders and plant-biologists to measure plant growth, however, its manual measurement is cumbersome, in-accurate, and inefficient. The presented methods use a common image processing core that is designed to extract the foreground in the presence of significant leaf and stem clutter, view of other rows, and varying lighting, from a side-facing USB camera mounted on a small mobile robot. Using the extracted foreground, one approach uses estimates of robot velocity from wheel encoders and dense optical flow to estimate depth, while the other employs filtering of the LIDAR 2-D point cloud to estimate the depth. Both methods have been exhaustively validated against available hand-measurements on biomass sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) in real experimental fields. Experiments indicate that both methods are also applicable to other crops with cylindrical stems without significant modifications. The width estimation match on sorghum is 92.5% (using vision) and 98.2% (using vision and LIDAR) when compared against manual measurements by trained agronomists. Thus, our results clearly establish the feasibility of using small robots for stem-width estimation in realistic field settings. Furthermore, the techniques presented here can be utilized for automating other phenotypic measurements.

Choudhuri, Anwesa↗

Chapter 21: Estimating Net Savings - Common Practices. The Uniform Methods Project: Methods for Determining Energy Efficiency Savings for Specific Measures

This chapter focuses on the methods used to estimate net energy savings in evaluation, measurement, and verification (EM and V) studies for energy efficiency (EE) programs. The chapter provides a definition of net savings, which remains an unsettled topic both within the EE evaluation community and across the broader public policy evaluation community, particularly in the context of attribution of savings to a program. The chapter differs from the measure-specific Uniform Methods Project (UMP) chapters in both its approach and work product. Unlike other UMP resources that provide recommended protocols for determining gross energy savings, this chapter describes and compares the current industry practices for determining net energy savings but does not prescribe methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Improvements in estimating proportions of objects from multispectral data

Methods for estimating proportions of objects and materials imaged within the instantaneous field of view of a multispectral sensor were developed further. Improvements in the basic proportion estimation algorithm were devised as well as improved alien object detection procedures. Also, a simplified signature set analysis scheme was introduced for determining the adequacy of signature set geometry for satisfactory proportion estimation. Averaging procedures used in conjunction with the mixtures algorithm were examined theoretically and applied to artificially generated multispectral data. A computationally simpler estimator was considered and found unsatisfactory. Experiments conducted to find a suitable procedure for setting the alien object threshold yielded little definitive result. Mixtures procedures were used on a limited amount of ERTS data to estimate wheat proportion in selected areas. Results were unsatisfactory, partly because of the ill-conditioned nature of the pure signature set.

Horwitz, H. M.↗

Signature estimation from satellite multispectral scanner data

A method for estimating signatures from satellite multispectral scanner data for areas containing mixtures of specified object classes is presented and evaluated. Each signature is assumed to be a Gaussian distribution. The estimation procedure is simple, and the estimates represent maximum likelihood estimates. Formulae to compute variances for an estimated signature are also given.

Crane, R. B.↗

Estimation of network path segment delays

A method for estimation of a network path segment delay includes determining a scaled time stamp for each packet of a plurality of packets by scaling a time stamp for each respective packet to minimize a difference of at least one of a frequency and a frequency drift between a transport protocol clock of a host and a monitoring point. The time stamp for each packet is provided by the transport protocol clock of the host. A corrected time stamp for each packet is determined by removing from the scaled time stamp for each respective packet, a temporal offset between the transport protocol clock and the monitoring clock by minimizing a temporal delay variation of the plurality of packets traversing a segment between the host and the monitoring point.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Remote sensing of soil moisture - Recent advances

Recent advancements in microwave remote sensing of soil moisture include a method for estimating the dependence of the soil dielectric constant on its texture, the use of a percent of field capacity to express soil moisture magnitudes independently of soil texture, methods of estimating soil moisture sampling depth, and models for describing the effect of surface roughness on microwave response in terms of surface height variance and horizontal correlation length, as well as the verification of radiative transfer model predictions of microwave emission from soils and methods for the estimation of vegetation effects on the microwave response to soil moisture. Such researches have demonstrated that it is possible to remotely sense soil moisture in the 0-5 cm soil surface layer, and simulation studies have indicated how remotely sensed surface soil moisture may be used to estimate evapotranspiration rates and root-zone soil moisture.

Schmugge, T. J.↗

A new method of boundary parameter estimation for a two-dimensional diffusion system under noisy observations

The purpose of this paper is to establish a method for identifying unknown parameters involved in the boundary state of a class of diffusion systems under noisy observations. A mathematical model of the system dynamics is given by a two-dimensional diffusion equation. Noisy observations are made by sensors allocated on the system boundary. Starting with the mathematical model mentioned above, an online parameter estimation algorithm is proposed within the framework of the maximum likelihood estimation. Existence of the optimal solution and related necessary conditions are discussed. By solving a local variation of the cost functional with respect to the perturbation of parameters, the estimation mechanism is proposed in a form of recursive computations. Finally, the feasibility of the estimator proposed here is demonstrated through results of digital simulation experiments.

Sunahara, Y.↗

A method of boundary parameter estimation for a two-dimensional diffusion system under noisy observations

The purpose of this paper is to establish a method for identifying unknown parameters involved in the boundary state of a class of diffusion systems under noisy observations. A mathematical model of the system dynamics is given by a two-dimensional diffusion equation. Noisy observations are made by sensors allocated on the system boundary. Starting with the mathematical model mentioned above, an online parameter estimation algorithm is proposed within the framework of the maximum likelihood estimation. Existence of the optimal solution and related necessary conditions are discussed. By solving a local variation of the cost functional with respect to the perturbation of parameters, the estimation mechanism is proposed in a form of recursive computations. Finally, the feasibility of the estimator proposed here is demonstrated through results of digital simulation experiments.

Sunahara, Y.↗

Reconstructing Hanford worker external doses from photons for epidemiology

The accurate reconstruction of external photon doses is essential for credible radiation epidemiology. This article presents the methodology used to derive dose estimates for 37 012 Hanford Site workers included in the Million Person Study. The approach employs historical dose records from the Hanford Radiation Exposure database and a previous epidemiology study. Bias correction factors specific to dosimeter type and period of use were applied and missing annual doses were estimated using a hierarchical nearby method to estimate deep dose equivalent for each worker. For early years with limited detection sensitivity, missed doses were quantified based on expected time-period-specific, low-dose statistical distributions. The revised dose estimates resulted in lower median and mean career doses than unadjusted data, while increasing the number of person-years with nonzero dose. Sensitivity analyses assessed the influence of bias in dosimetry measurements, missed doses and gap years on dose estimates. Differences in cumulative dose estimates between unadjusted and revised annual estimates are most prominent in the early operational years due to the highest bias during that time period.

dose reconstruction↗

Review of Residual Stresses in Spent Nuclear Fuel Canisters

This report compiles the set of published results on the welding residual stress (WRS) distributions across the thickness section at the welds in spent nuclear fuel (SNF) canisters before and after a repair is done. The WRS information for similar steel structures with thick (~ 12.7 mm (0.5 inch)) large plate construction are also compiled to provide a comprehensive set of information on: methods to quantify; modeling to estimate; and methods to reduce WRS.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Delta method, an empirical drag buildup technique

An empirical drag correlation technique was developed from analysis of 19 subsonic and supersonic military aircraft and 15 advanced or supercritical airfoil configurations which can be applied in conceptual and advanced aircraft design activities. The Delta Method may be used for estimating the clean wing drag polar for cruise and maneuver conditions up to buffet onset, and to approximately Mach 2.0. This technique incorporates a unique capability of predicting the off-design performance of advanced or supercritical airfoil sections. The buffet onset limit may also be estimated. The method is applicable to wind tunnel models as well as to full scale configurations. This technique has been converted into a computer code for use on the IBM 360 and CDC 7600 computer facilities at NASA AMES. Results obtained using this method to predict known aircraft characteristics are good and agreement can be obtained within a degree of accuracy judged to be sufficient for the initial processes of preliminary design.

Feagin, R. C.↗

Synthesizing a New Launch Vehicle Failure Probability Based on Historical Flight Data

New launch vehicles have historically had significantly higher failure rates in early flights than what has been predicted using Probabilistic Risk Assessment - PRA. This is because PRAs typically model a mature vehicle where a significant portion of the early failure probability contributors have been eliminated due to testing and improvements after actual field operation. To capture a more accurate early flight failure probability estimate, this paper develops a method that estimates ascent failure probability starting with the first flight based on historical launch vehicle records. With new launch vehicles being developed, such as the Space Launch System - SLS, a PRA model must be extended to cover early flight failure probability contributions that are either not covered in the mature-vehicle PRA or are underestimated. These failure probability contributions include design errors, quality control deficiencies, installation errors, and environmental impacts. There are also failure dependencies due to systemic errors that still exist due to limited entire-system testing.

Cross, Robert B.↗

Estimating Airline Operating Costs

The factors affecting commercial aircraft operating and delay costs were used to develop an airline operating cost model which includes a method for estimating the labor and material costs of individual airframe maintenance systems. The model permits estimates of aircraft related costs, i.e., aircraft service, landing fees, flight attendants, and control fees. A method for estimating the costs of certain types of airline delay is also described.

Maddalon, D. V.↗