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875 records · Page 49

Early burial mud diapirism and its impact on stratigraphic architecture in the Carboniferous of the Shannon Basin, County Clare, Ireland

Delta fronts are often characterized by high rates of sediment supply that result in unstable slopes and a wide variety of soft-sediment deformation, including the formation of overpressured and mobile muds that may flow plastically during early burial, potentially forming mud diapirs. The coastal cliffs of County Clare, western Ireland, expose Pennsylvanian (Namurian) delta-front deposits of the Shannon Basin at large scale and in three dimensions. These deposits include decametre-scale, internally chaotic mudstone masses that clearly impact the surrounding sedimentary strata. Evidence indicates that these were true mud (unlithified sediment) diapirs that pierced overlying strata. This study documents a well-exposed ca 20 m tall mud diapir and its impact on the surrounding mouth-bar deposits of the Tullig Cyclothem. A synsedimentary fault and associated rollover dome, evident from stratal thicknesses and the dip of the beds, define one edge of the diapir. These features are interpreted as recording the reactive rise of the mud diapir in response to extensional faulting along its margin. Above the diapir, heterolithic sandstones and siltstones contain evidence for the creation of localized accommodation, suggesting synsedimentary filling, tilting and erosion of a shallow sag basin accommodated by the progressive collapse of the diapir. Two other diapirs are investigated using three-dimensional models built from ‘structure from motion’ drone imagery. Both diapirs are interpreted to have grown predominantly through passive rise (downbuilding). Stratal relationships for all three diapirs indicate that they were uncompacted and fluid-rich mud beds that became mobilized through soft-sediment deformation during early burial (i.e. <50 m, likely <10 m depth). Each diapir locally controlled the stratigraphic architecture in the shallow subsurface and potentially influenced local palaeocurrents on the delta. The mud diapirs studied herein are distinct from deeper ‘shale diapirs’ that have been inferred from seismic sections worldwide, now largely disputed.

defects, mechanical behavior, carbon sequestration↗

Health Management and Prognostics for Electric Aircraft Powertrain

W and c Any air borne vehicle needs incorporating safety as key parameter of measure, and inclusion of autonomy raises the critical need for safety under autonomous operations. Management of faults and component degradation is key as complexity in autonomous operations grow over the period of time. Therefore, in addition to basic operational requirements, an autonomous electric vehicle should be able to make accurate estimates of its current system health and take the correct decisions to complete its mission successfully. Real-time safety and state-awareness tools are therefore essential for the vehicle to be able to reach its destination in a safe and successful manner. The need for safety assurance and health management capabilities is particularly relevant for aircraft electric propulsion systems, which are relatively new and with limited historical to learn. They are critical systems requiring high power density along with reliability, resilience, efficient management of weight, and operational costs. A model- based fault diagnosis and prognostics approach of complex critical systems can successfully accomplish the safety and state awareness goal for such electric propulsion systems, enabling autonomous decision making capability for safe and efficient operation. To identify critical components in the system a Qualitative Bayesian approach using FMECA is implemented. This requires the assessment of some quantities representing the state of the electric unmanned aerial systems (e-UAS), as well as look-ahead forecasts of such states during the entire flight, presented in form of safety metrics (SM). In-service data and performance data gathered from degraded components sup- ports diagnostic and prognostic methods for these systems, but this data can be difficult to obtain as weight and packaging restrictions reduce redundancy and instrumentation on-board the vehicle. Therefore, an model-based framework should be capable or operating with limited data. In addition to data scarcity, the variability of such complex critical systems re- quires the model-based framework to reason in the presence of uncertainty, such as sensor noise, and modeling imperfections. Quantification of errors and uncertainties in the measured states and quantities is therefore a fundamental step for a precise estimation of such SMs; un-modeled uncertainty may result in erroneous state assessment and un- reliable predictions of future states of e-UAVs. Typical, centralized model-based schemes suffer from inherent disadvantages such as computational complexity, single point of failure, and scalability issues, and therefore may fail in such a complex scenario. This paper presents a methodology for developing a system level diagnostics and prognostics approach using a Qualitative Bayesian FMECA approach along with a formal uncertainty management framework for an e-UAS. In this work we demonstrate the efficacy of the framework to predict effects of sub-system level degradation on vehicle operation incorporating uncertainty management to predict future behavior under different operating conditions.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗

Monitoring of Volcanogenic CO2-Induced Tree Kills with AVIRIS Image Data at Mammoth Mountain, California

Elevated cold CO2 emissions from the flank of Mammoth Mountain volcano on the southwest rim of the Long Valley Caldera, eastern California, have been the cause of over 100 acres of dead trees in that area since 1990. The source of the CO2 gas is thought to be from one or more magmatic intrusion(s) beneath Mammoth Mountain and is probably related to a period of seismic unrest that began in 1989. The gas rises to the surface probably from depths of a few kilometers, along faults and fracture zones. The gas is at ambient temperature and diffuses from the soil rather than discharging from distinct vents. Typically, soil gas concentrations in tree-kill areas range from 10% to over 90% CO2 by volume, as compared to normal background of < 1% in healthy forest. The gas composition is predominantly CO2 mixed with air (sulfur gases are not elevated), and C and He isotopic ratios are consistent with a magmatic origin for the gas. The total CO2 emission has been estimated at 1200 tons/day, comparable to the emissions at Kilauea. Some of the dead trees are as old as 250 years, suggesting that similar anomalous gas discharge has not occurred over the previous few hundred years. The delta C-13/12 ratio in the Mammoth Mountain CO2 emission averages about -4.5 (PDB standard). This is consistent with a mantle source for the carbon. However, the large volume of the emission suggests that not all of the CO2 is necessarily being generated from the 1989 intrusion. The voluminous gas could be leaking from a vapor-rich zone, capped by an impermeable layer, that was supplied CO2 from degassing of many small magma bodies that intruded beneath the mountain over a period of decades or centuries. Earthquakes in 1989 could have fractured the capping layer and provided pathways for the escape Of CO2 to the surface. Alternatively, some of the CO2 could be derived from contact metamorphism of carbonate rocks intruded by magma. Carbonate-bearing Paleozoic roof pendents crop out in close proximity to Mammoth Mountain. It is possible that similar rocks could occur at depth beneath Mammoth Mountain, and could have contributed CO2 from thermal decomposition caused from recent intrusions. We hope to determine the C-13/12 ratio of a suite of samples to demonstrate if the carbonate rocks could be the source of at least part of the 1990-97 CO2 emission. To better understand the behavior of the CO2 gas, we have used hyperspectral imagery data of Mammoth Mountain acquired from the Airborne Visual/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) to map out areas of dead trees. The areas of tree kill have increased in size from about 50 acres in 1994 to about 100 acres in 1997. Tree kill is the major surface manifestation of the carbon dioxide flux at Mammoth Mountain, is widely dispersed, and has been cursorily mapped by regular field mapping techniques in the area. Initial investigations using airborne digital imagery from the Thematic Mapper Simulator (NS001) and AVIRIS instruments have shown extremely encouraging results for complete delineation of the vegetation anomalies. The most successful maps (when compared with ground truth) were developed using AVIRIS data with spectral angle mapper and matched filter algorithms with a data set that was reduced to maximum variance via the minimum noise fraction transformation. The result of this work is a series of maps that show the tree kill areas occurring in an halo-pattern surrounding the base of Mammoth Mountain. We are applying these same techniques to earlier AVIRIS images of Mammoth Mountain to examine the progression of the tree kill areas over time. Temporal maps of the tree kill areas may assist in constructing a picture of the structure beneath Mammoth Mountain.

Hausback, Brian P.↗

Dielectric strength of parylene HT

The dielectric strength of parylene HT (PA-HT) films was studied at room temperature in a wide thickness range from 500 nm to 50 μm and was correlated with nano- and microstructure analyses. X-ray diffraction and polarized optical microscopy have revealed an enhancement of crystallization and spherulites development, respectively, with increasing the material thickness (d). Moreover, a critical thickness d{sub C} (between 5 and 10 μm) is identified corresponding to the beginning of spherulite developments in the films. Two distinct behaviors of the dielectric strength (F{sub B}) appear in the thickness range. For d ≥ d{sub C}, PA-HT films exhibit a decrease in the breakdown field following a negative slope (F{sub B} ∼ d{sup −0.4}), while for d < d{sub C}, it increases with increasing the thickness (F{sub B} ∼ d{sup 0.3}). An optimal thickness d{sub optim} ∼ 5 μm corresponding to a maximum dielectric strength (F{sub B} ∼ 10 MV/cm) is obtained. A model of spherulite development in PA-HT films with increasing the thickness is proposed. The decrease in F{sub B} above d{sub C} is explained by the spherulites development, whereas its increase below d{sub C} is induced by the crystallites growth. An annealing of the material shows both an enhancement of F{sub B} and an increase of the crystallites and spherulites dimensions, whatever the thickness. The breakdown field becomes thickness-independent below d{sub C} showing a strong influence of the nano-scale structural parameters. On the contrary, both nano- and micro-scale structural parameters appear as influent on F{sub B} for d ≥ d{sub C}.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Goal-Function Tree Modeling for Systems Engineering and Fault Management

The draft NASA Fault Management (FM) Handbook (2012) states that Fault Management (FM) is a "part of systems engineering", and that it "demands a system-level perspective" (NASAHDBK- 1002, 7). What, exactly, is the relationship between systems engineering and FM? To NASA, systems engineering (SE) is "the art and science of developing an operable system capable of meeting requirements within often opposed constraints" (NASA/SP-2007-6105, 3). Systems engineering starts with the elucidation and development of requirements, which set the goals that the system is to achieve. To achieve these goals, the systems engineer typically defines functions, and the functions in turn are the basis for design trades to determine the best means to perform the functions. System Health Management (SHM), by contrast, defines "the capabilities of a system that preserve the system's ability to function as intended" (Johnson et al., 2011, 3). Fault Management, in turn, is the operational subset of SHM, which detects current or future failures, and takes operational measures to prevent or respond to these failures. Failure, in turn, is the "unacceptable performance of intended function." (Johnson 2011, 605) Thus the relationship of SE to FM is that SE defines the functions and the design to perform those functions to meet system goals and requirements, while FM detects the inability to perform those functions and takes action. SHM and FM are in essence "the dark side" of SE. For every function to be performed (SE), there is the possibility that it is not successfully performed (SHM); FM defines the means to operationally detect and respond to this lack of success. We can also describe this in terms of goals: for every goal to be achieved, there is the possibility that it is not achieved; FM defines the means to operationally detect and respond to this inability to achieve the goal. This brief description of relationships between SE, SHM, and FM provide hints to a modeling approach to provide formal connectivity between the nominal (SE), and off-nominal (SHM and FM) aspects of functions and designs. This paper describes a formal modeling approach to the initial phases of the development process that integrates the nominal and off-nominal perspectives in a model that unites SE goals and functions of with the failure to achieve goals and functions (SHM/FM). This methodology and corresponding model, known as a Goal-Function Tree (GFT), provides a means to represent, decompose, and elaborate system goals and functions in a rigorous manner that connects directly to design through use of state variables that translate natural language requirements and goals into logical-physical state language. The state variable-based approach also provides the means to directly connect FM to the design, by specifying the range in which state variables must be controlled to achieve goals, and conversely, the failures that exist if system behavior go out-of-range. This in turn allows for the systems engineers and SHM/FM engineers to determine which state variables to monitor, and what action(s) to take should the system fail to achieve that goal. In sum, the GFT representation provides a unified approach to early-phase SE and FM development. This representation and methodology has been successfully developed and implemented using Systems Modeling Language (SysML) on the NASA Space Launch System (SLS) Program. It enabled early design trade studies of failure detection coverage to ensure complete detection coverage of all crew-threatening failures. The representation maps directly both to FM algorithm designs, and to failure scenario definitions needed for design analysis and testing. The GFT representation provided the basis for mapping of abort triggers into scenarios, both needed for initial, and successful quantitative analyses of abort effectiveness (detection and response to crew-threatening events).

Patterson, Jonathan D.↗

Validating Protection System Behavior with Machine Learning in a Master State Overseer

As power system protection devices continue the widespread transition from analog to digital, they become increasingly intricate. The internal functions and communication between critical grid components must now be significantly more complex to keep up with the demands of the modern smart grid. This brings increased difficulty in maintenance and monitoring, making it harder to identify potential misoperation, power anomalies, and cyber threats. Such issues are often only pinpointed after an exhaustive and costly post-mortem analysis, when a major outage or damage has already occurred. A solution is needed for validating protection systems as they operate, independently evaluating grid state and confirming whether the protection system is behaving accordingly. As opposed to incident response, this acts as a constant verification mechanism that raises a flag when subtler issues are noticed, catching them earlier and preventing larger incidents. This work presents the implementation of such a system, expanding on the prototype developed by the authors in a previous paper. This is accomplished with a machine learning (ML) system capable of validating the performance of protection systems by classifying anomalous events and characterizing protection system responses based solely on available current and voltage measurements. Additionally, this system is contextualized within a larger, modular Master State awareness Overseer (MSO) framework, responsible for monitoring, analyzing, and managing an electric grid.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling in the State Flow Environment to Support Launch Vehicle Verification Testing for Mission and Fault Management Algorithms in the NASA Space Launch System

Analysis methods and testing processes are essential activities in the engineering development and verification of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) new Space Launch System (SLS). Central to mission success is reliable verification of the Mission and Fault Management (M&FM) algorithms for the SLS launch vehicle (LV) flight software. This is particularly difficult because M&FM algorithms integrate and operate LV subsystems, which consist of diverse forms of hardware and software themselves, with equally diverse integration from the engineering disciplines of LV subsystems. M&FM operation of SLS requires a changing mix of LV automation. During pre-launch the LV is primarily operated by the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) organization with some LV automation of time-critical functions, and much more autonomous LV operations during ascent that have crucial interactions with the Orion crew capsule, its astronauts, and with mission controllers at the Johnson Space Center. M&FM algorithms must perform all nominal mission commanding via the flight computer to control LV states from pre-launch through disposal and also address failure conditions by initiating autonomous or commanded aborts (crew capsule escape from the failing LV), redundancy management of failing subsystems and components, and safing actions to reduce or prevent threats to ground systems and crew. To address the criticality of the verification testing of these algorithms, the NASA M&FM team has utilized the State Flow environment6 (SFE) with its existing Vehicle Management End-to-End Testbed (VMET) platform which also hosts vendor-supplied physics-based LV subsystem models. The human-derived M&FM algorithms are designed and vetted in Integrated Development Teams composed of design and development disciplines such as Systems Engineering, Flight Software (FSW), Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) and major subsystems and vehicle elements such as Main Propulsion Systems (MPS), boosters, avionics, Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C), Thrust Vector Control (TVC), liquid engines, and the astronaut crew office. Since the algorithms are realized using model-based engineering (MBE) methods from a hybrid of the Unified Modeling Language (UML) and Systems Modeling Language (SysML), SFE methods are a natural fit to provide an in depth analysis of the interactive behavior of these algorithms with the SLS LV subsystem models. For this, the M&FM algorithms and the SLS LV subsystem models are modeled using constructs provided by Matlab which also enables modeling of the accompanying interfaces providing greater flexibility for integrated testing and analysis, which helps forecast expected behavior in forward VMET integrated testing activities. In VMET, the M&FM algorithms are prototyped and implemented using the same C++ programming language and similar state machine architectural concepts used by the FSW group. Due to the interactive complexity of the algorithms, VMET testing thus far has verified all the individual M&FM subsystem algorithms with select subsystem vendor models but is steadily progressing to assessing the interactive behavior of these algorithms with LV subsystems, as represented by subsystem models. The novel SFE applications has proven to be useful for quick look analysis into early integrated system behavior and assessment of the M&FM algorithms with the modeled LV subsystems. This early MBE analysis generates vital insight into the integrated system behaviors, algorithm sensitivities, design issues, and has aided in the debugging of the M&FM algorithms well before full testing can begin in more expensive, higher fidelity but more arduous environments such as VMET, FSW testing, and the Systems Integration Lab7 (SIL). SFE has exhibited both expected and unexpected behaviors in nominal and off nominal test cases prior to full VMET testing. In many findings, these behavioral characteristics were used to correct the M&FM algorithms, enable better test coverage, and develop more effective test cases for each of the LV subsystems. This has improved the fidelity of testing and planning for the next generation of M&FM algorithms as the SLS program evolves from non-crewed to crewed flight, impacting subsystem configurations and the M&FM algorithms that control them. SFE analysis has improved robustness and reliability of the M&FM algorithms by revealing implementation errors and documentation inconsistencies. It is also improving planning efficiency for future VMET testing of the M&FM algorithms hosted in the LV flight computers, further reducing risk for the SLS launch infrastructure, the SLS LV, and most importantly the crew.

Trevino, Luis↗

Provably-Stable Overload Ride-Through Control for Grid-Forming Inverters Using System-Wide Lyapunov Function Analysis

A key challenge associated with a grid-forming (GFM) inverter based resource (IBR) is its behavior during severe grid disturbances: since a GFM inverter regulates voltage in the fast timescale instead of current or power, it may experience a transient overload of current, power and/or energy during a severe grid disturbance. While many promising control strategies for overload ride-through have been proposed over the past two decades, transient stability of the system during and after the transition to an overload ride-through control mode remains difficult to guarantee. In this work, a novel overload ride-through control strategy is proposed for a system of grid-forming inverters that takes both self-protection and system-wide transient stability into account. A proposed system-level supervisory control uses slow communication to pre-emptively assign a set of local ride through control parameters to individual GFM IBR, including a current-limiting virtual reactance, that guarantees that synchronism is still preserved for any set of anticipated grid disturbances. At the core of the supervisory control lies a Lyapunov-function-based routine capable of establishing a strong, albeit conservative, transient stability guarantee for the system. Here, the proposed overload ride-through control strategy is validated via numerical integration of a reduced-order model, as well as through detailed electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Application of Fault Management Theory to the Quantitative Selection of a Launch Vehicle Abort Trigger Suite

The theory of System Health Management (SHM) and of its operational subset Fault Management (FM) states that FM is implemented as a "meta" control loop, known as an FM Control Loop (FMCL). The FMCL detects that all or part of a system is now failed, or in the future will fail (that is, cannot be controlled within acceptable limits to achieve its objectives), and takes a control action (a response) to return the system to a controllable state. In terms of control theory, the effectiveness of each FMCL is estimated based on its ability to correctly estimate the system state, and on the speed of its response to the current or impending failure effects. This paper describes how this theory has been successfully applied on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of proposed abort triggers so as to select the most effective suite to protect the astronauts from catastrophic failure of the SLS. The premise behind this process is to be able to quantitatively provide the value versus risk trade‐off for any given abort trigger, allowing decision makers to make more informed decisions. All current and planned crewed launch vehicles have some form of vehicle health management system integrated with an emergency launch abort system to ensure crew safety. While the design can vary, the underlying principle is the same: detect imminent catastrophic vehicle failure, initiate launch abort, and extract the crew to safety. Abort triggers are the detection mechanisms that identify that a catastrophic launch vehicle failure is occurring or is imminent and cause the initiation of a notification to the crew vehicle that the escape system must be activated. While ensuring that the abort triggers provide this function, designers must also ensure that the abort triggers do not signal that a catastrophic failure is imminent when in fact the launch vehicle can successfully achieve orbit. That is, the abort triggers must have low false negative rates to be sure that real crew‐threatening failures are detected, and also low false positive rates to ensure that the crew does not abort from non‐crew‐threatening launch vehicle behaviors. The analysis process described in this paper is a compilation of over six years of lessons learned and refinements from experiences developing abort triggers for NASA's Constellation Program (Ares I Project) and the SLS Program, as well as the simultaneous development of SHM/FM theory. The paper will describe the abort analysis concepts and process, developed in conjunction with SLS Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) to define a common set of mission phase, failure scenario, and Loss of Mission Environment (LOME) combinations upon which the SLS Loss of Mission (LOM) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models are built. This abort analysis also requires strong coordination with the Multi‐Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and SLS Structures and Environments (STE) to formulate a series of abortability tables that encapsulate explosion dynamics over the ascent mission phase. The design and assessment of abort conditions and triggers to estimate their Loss of Crew (LOC) Benefits also requires in‐depth integration with other groups, including Avionics, Guidance, Navigation and Control(GN&C), the Crew Office, Mission Operations, and Ground Systems. The outputs of this analysis are a critical input to SLS S&MA's LOC PRA models. The process described here may well be the first full quantitative application of SHM/FM theory to the selection of a sensor suite for any aerospace system.

Lo, Yunnhon↗

Validation of Atmosphere/Ionosphere Signals Associated with Major Earthquakes by Multi-Instrument Space-Borne and Ground Observations

The latest catastrophic earthquake in Japan (March 2011) has renewed interest in the important question of the existence of pre-earthquake anomalous signals related to strong earthquakes. Recent studies have shown that there were precursory atmospheric/ionospheric signals observed in space associated with major earthquakes. The critical question, still widely debated in the scientific community, is whether such ionospheric/atmospheric signals systematically precede large earthquakes. To address this problem we have started to investigate anomalous ionospheric / atmospheric signals occurring prior to large earthquakes. We are studying the Earth's atmospheric electromagnetic environment by developing a multisensor model for monitoring the signals related to active tectonic faulting and earthquake processes. The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (thermal infrared radiation, electron concentration in the ionosphere, lineament analysis, radon/ion activities, air temperature and seismicity) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. A physical link between these parameters and earthquake processes has been provided by the recent version of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. Our experimental measurements have supported the new theoretical estimates of LAIC hypothesis for an increase in the surface latent heat flux, integrated variability of outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC) registered over the epicenters. Some of the major earthquakes are accompanied by an intensification of gas migration to the surface, thermodynamic and hydrodynamic processes of transformation of latent heat into thermal energy and with vertical transport of charged aerosols in the lower atmosphere. These processes lead to the generation of external electric currents in specific regions of the atmosphere and the modifications, by dc electric fields, in the ionosphere-atmosphere electric circuit. We retrospectively analyzed temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters (gas/radon counting rate, lineaments change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) characterizing the state of the lithosphere/atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes. Validation processes consist in two phases: A. Case studies for seven recent major earthquakes: Japan (M9.0, 2011), China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and, Chile (M8.8, 2010) and B. A continuous retrospective analysis was preformed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan and Japan for 2003-2009. Satellite, ground surface, and troposphere data were obtained from Terra/ASTER, Aqua/AIRS, POES and ionospheric variations from DEMETER and COSMIC-I data. Radon and GPS/TEC were obtaining from monitoring sites in Taiwan, Japan and Italy and from global ionosphere maps (GIM) respectively. Our analysis of ground and satellite data during the occurrence of 7 global earthquakes has shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere. Our results for Tohoku M9.0 earthquake show that on March 7th, 2011 (4 days before the main shock and 1 day before the M7.2 foreshock of March 8, 2011) a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed by the satellite data and an anomaly was developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. Similar approach for analyzing atmospheric and ionospheric parameters has been applied for China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and Chile (M8.8, 2010) eahquakes. Results have revealed the presence of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake process. The second phase (B) of this validation included 102 major earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan and Japan. We have found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. False alarm ratio for false positives is less then 10% and has been calculated for the same month of the earthquake occurrence for the entire period of analysis (2003-2009). The commonalities for detecting atmospheric/ionospheric anomalies are: i.) Regularly appearance over regions of maximum stress (i.e., along plate boundaries); ii.) Anomaly existence over land and sea; and iii) association with M>5.9 earthquakes not deeper than 100km. Due to their long duration over the same region these anomalies are not consistent with a meteorological origin. Our initial results from the ISTF validation of multi-instrument space-borne and ground observations show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies near the epicentral area, one to seven (average) days prior to the largest earthquakes, and suggest that it could be explained by a coupling process between the observed physical parameters and the pre-earthquake preparation processes.

Ouzounov, Dimitar↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗