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Clean Energy Microgrids: Considerations for State Energy Offices and Public Utility Commissions to Increase Resilience, Reduce Emissions, and Improve Affordability

In fall 2019, the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) and the National Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO) initiated a joint Microgrids State Working Group (MSWG), funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Electricity (OE). The MSWG aims to bring together NARUC and NASEO members to explore the capabilities, costs, and benefits of microgrids; discuss barriers to microgrid development; and develop strategies to plan, finance, and deploy microgrids to improve resilience. This report, Clean Energy Microgrids: Considerations for State Energy Offices and Public Utility Commissions to Increase Resilience, Reduce Emissions, and Improve Affordability, focuses specifically on how clean energy microgrids can achieve both resilience and clean energy benefits. The paper provides an overview of the challenges faced by clean energy microgrids, outlines benefits that clean energy microgrids can provide, and details economic and cost considerations for the development of clean energy microgrid projects. Outlined in the paper are the necessary technological components of a clean energy microgrid, including generation, storage, energy efficiency measures, and smart controls. Current technologies are highlighted, along with potential configurations of clean technologies that are approaching cost competitiveness with commercially available options. The paper concludes with both policy and regulatory considerations for State Energy Offices and Public Utility Commissions to enhance the development and deployment of clean energy microgrids. Although it touches on the clean energy microgrids’ role in integrating distributed energy resources (DERs) into the larger grid, this is not the focus of this paper.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Solar-B X-ray Telescope (XRT) Concept Study Report

The X-ray observations from the Yohkoh SXT provided the greatest step forward in our understanding of the solar corona in nearly two decades. Expanding on the accomplishments of Yohkoh, we believe that the scientific objectives of the Solar-B mission are achieved with a significantly improved X-ray telescope (XRT) similar to the SXT. The Solar-B XRT will have twice the spatial resolution and a broader temperature response, while building on the knowledge gained from the successful Yohkoh mission. We present the scientific justification for this view, discuss the instrumental requirements that flow from the scientific objectives, and describe the instrumentation to meet these requirements. We then provide a detailed discussion of the design activities carried out during Phase A, noting the conclusions that were reached in terms of their implications for the detailed design activities which are now commencing. Details of the instrument that have changed as a result of the Phase A studied are specifically noted, and areas of concern going into Phase B are highlighted. XRT is a grazing-incidence (GI) modified Wolter I X-ray telescope, of 35cm inner diameter and 2.7m focal length. The 2048x2048 back-illuminated CCD (now an ISAS responsibility) has 13.5 micron pixels, corresponding to 1.0 arcsec and giving full Sun field of view. This will be the highest resolution GI X-ray telescope ever flown for Solar coronal studies, and it has been designed specifically to observe both the high and low temperature coronal plasma. A small optical telescope provides visible light images for co-alignment with the Solar-B optical and EUV instruments. The XRT science team is working in close cooperation with our Japanese colleagues in the design and construction of this instrument. All of the expertise and resources of the High Energy and Solar/Stellar Divisions of the Center for Astrophysics are being made available to this program, and our team will carry its full share of responsibility for mission operations, data reduction and education and public outreach. All aspects of the XRT design were reviewed during Phase A. The study focussed particularly on those aspects that have the greatest affect on instrument performance and extended lifetime, on the image quality error budget, and on the camera (mechanical and electrical) interface and the instrument mounting interfaces. The present instrument design differs in some details from that originally proposed. Selection of the XRT for Phase A study was contingent upon the removal of the camera and its associated electronics, and the acceptance of a stringent cost cap. The removal of the electronics left the XRT without control electronics for the instrument mechanisms. A mechanism controller was therefore added. The removal of the camera resulted in major complications to the integration and test plan. After many discussions, it was decided that the system would be less expensive, and the risk of unacceptable performance lower, if we include a focus mechanism. The remainder of the XRT design baseline matches the proposed configuration. Data requirements for the XRT are driven by the science plans, which are based on the physical processes in the solar outer atmosphere. Discussions to date of the XRT observing plan, both alone and in conjunction with the other Solar-B instruments, shows that the XRT needs 2 Gbits of on-board storage, at least one circulating buffer of 640 Mbits, and twelve 10- minute downlinks per day in order to carry out its required programs.

Golub, Leon↗

DARPA/USAF/USN J-UCAS X-45A System Demonstration Program: A Review of Flight Test Site Processes and Personnel

The Joint Unmanned Combat Air Systems (J-UCAS) program is a collaborative effort between the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA), the US Air Force (USAF) and the US Navy (USN). Together they have reviewed X-45A flight test site processes and personnel as part of a system demonstration program for the UCAV-ATD Flight Test Program. The goal was to provide a disciplined controlled process for system integration and testing and demonstration flight tests. NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) acted as the project manager during this effort and was tasked with the responsibilities of range and ground safety, the provision of flight test support and infrastructure and the monitoring of technical and engineering tasks. DFRC also contributed their engineering knowledge through their contributions in the areas of autonomous ground taxi control development, structural dynamics testing and analysis and the provision of other flight test support including telemetry data, tracking radars, and communications and control support equipment. The Air Force Flight Test Center acted at the Deputy Project Manager in this effort and was responsible for the provision of system safety support and airfield management and air traffic control services, among other supporting roles. The T-33 served as a J-UCAS surrogate aircraft and demonstrated flight characteristics similar to that of the the X-45A. The surrogate served as a significant risk reduction resource providing mission planning verification, range safety mission assessment and team training, among other contributions.

Cosentino, Gary B.↗

Gateway Autonomy for Enabling Deep Space Exploration

The Gateway spacecraft is an important stepping-stone to exploration of the solar system, integrating commercial and international partners into a tightly coupled system, enabling cislunar activities, and implementing key technologies for missions to Mars. Autonomy is a capability area necessary to handle long communication outages where intervention from Earth is impossible, to prepare to operate with long communication delays that will be common in interplanetary travel, and to make spaceflight more affordable and accessible by reducing sustaining operations costs. The Gateway Concept of Operations states that one of Gateway’s goals is to “focus on infrastructure and systems that will allow autonomous operations aboard the Gateway with robotics, automated systems, advanced communications, and distributed computing.” Gateway’s Vehicle Systems Manager (VSM) and associated Autonomous Spacecraft Management Architecture (ASMA) are key products towards delivering autonomous capability. The primary functions of the control architecture are Mission Management and Timeline Execution, Resource Management, Fault Management, and Vehicle Control and Operation (VCO). In each of these areas, there is an initial level of capability to be delivered at launch, with plans to continue development and grow to greater capability. The initial deployment of VSM will focus on maintaining vehicle safety by focusing on full fault management capabilities and deploying only enough resource and timeline planning functionality to support that. The final deployment of VSM will add significant planning and control optimization functionality to support nominal operations for up to 21 days without ground support, even accommodating fault and failure conditions. While the VSM is the vehicle-level representation of autonomous reasoning, distributed automation is essential to provide the right scope and abstraction of information to process. Module and system support of automation and simplicity of interfaces are two important design paradigms that Gateway is focusing on to garner a systems approach to autonomy. Distribution of reasoning can increase complexity, so Gateway is also taking a strict hierarchical approach to information flow and decision making. VSM is not the only capability necessary to achieve an autonomous spacecraft. Robotics support for maintenance of the spacecraft will be essential to provide continued vehicle functionality even when crew is not present. Technical and programmatic challenges exist when implementing autonomous robotics operations. These challenges include sufficient network flexibility to support data transfer to the rest of the vehicle to coordinate module-to-module robotic walk-offs and finding the proper interfaces to allow sufficient dexterity. Communication system upgrades planned for Gateway include Delay Tolerant Networking to best utilize the complex network of relays that will be part of mature cislunar operations. Distributed computing and management will provide failure tolerance, robustness, and growth of capabilities while still allowing significant reuse of heritage software on heritage systems as well as reuse of common applications across a spacecraft to minimize new development, but this requires adherence to key standards and interfaces. The Gateway program has demonstrated significant progress towards these capabilities and has identified challenges other spacecraft developers should be aware of from the start.

Molly Anderson↗

Gateway Autonomy for Enabling Deep Space Exploration

The Gateway spacecraft is an important stepping-stone to exploration of the solar system, integrating commercial and international partners into a tightly coupled system, enabling cislunar activities, and implementing key technologies for missions to Mars. Autonomy is a capability area necessary to handle long communication outages where intervention from Earth is impossible, to prepare to operate with long communication delays that will be common in interplanetary travel, and to make spaceflight more affordable and accessible by reducing sustaining operations costs. The Gateway Concept of Operations states that one of Gateway’s goals is to “focus on infrastructure and systems that will allow autonomous operations aboard the Gateway with robotics, automated systems, advanced communications, and distributed computing.” Gateway’s Vehicle Systems Manager (VSM) and associated Autonomous Spacecraft Management Architecture (ASMA) are key products towards delivering autonomous capability. The primary functions of the control architecture are Mission Management and Timeline Execution, Resource Management, Fault Management, and Vehicle Control and Operation (VCO). In each of these areas, there is an initial level of capability to be delivered at launch, with plans to continue development and grow to greater capability. The initial deployment of VSM will focus on maintaining vehicle safety by focusing on full fault management capabilities and deploying only enough resource and timeline planning functionality to support that. The final deployment of VSM will add significant planning and control optimization functionality to support nominal operations for up to 21 days without ground support, even accommodating fault and failure conditions. While the VSM is the vehicle-level representation of autonomous reasoning, distributed automation is essential to provide the right scope and abstraction of information to process. Module and system support of automation and simplicity of interfaces are two important design paradigms that Gateway is focusing on to garner a systems approach to autonomy. Distribution of reasoning can increase complexity, so Gateway is also taking a strict hierarchical approach to information flow and decision making. VSM is not the only capability necessary to achieve an autonomous spacecraft. Robotics support for maintenance of the spacecraft will be essential to provide continued vehicle functionality even when crew is not present. Technical and programmatic challenges exist when implementing autonomous robotics operations. These challenges include sufficient network flexibility to support data transfer to the rest of the vehicle to coordinate module-to-module robotic walk-offs and finding the proper interfaces to allow sufficient dexterity. Communication system upgrades planned for Gateway include Delay Tolerant Networking to best utilize the complex network of relays that will be part of mature cislunar operations. Distributed computing and management will provide failure tolerance, robustness, and growth of capabilities while still allowing significant reuse of heritage software on heritage systems as well as reuse of common applications across a spacecraft to minimize new development, but this requires adherence to key standards and interfaces. The Gateway program has demonstrated significant progress towards these capabilities and has identified challenges other spacecraft developers should be aware of from the start.

Molly Anderson↗

NASA’s Moon Trek Portal: New Capabilities Supporting Mission Planning and Engagement

Introduction: NASA’s Moon Trek (https://trek.nasa.gov/moon/) is one of a growing number of interactive, browser-based, online portals for planetary data visualization and analysis produced by NASA’s Solar System Treks Project (SSTP). Moon Trek continues to be enhanced with new data and new capabilities enabling it to facilitate the planning and conducting of upcoming lunar missions by NASA, its commercial partners, and its international partners, as well as advancing its role as a valuable outreach tool. A Comprehensive Online Web Portal: Developed at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and managed as a project of NASA’s Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) at NASA Ames Research Center, Moon Trek is a browser-based web portal. The portal provides easy-to-use tools for browsing, data layering, data product blending, and feature search among thousands of data products covering topography, mineralogy, elemental abundance, geology, and much more. Visualizations are provided in var-ious map projections, interactive 3D viewing, and in virtual reality. Using an in-house stereo workflow, SSTP is able to produce new NAC-based high-resolution mosaics and DEMs. Diverse Applications for Lunar Exploration: Baseline analytic tools available to all users include dis-tance measurement, elevation profiling, sun angle calculation, and 3D print file generation. More advanced account-level tools allow users to perform more computationally intensive analyses. These include ray-traced lighting analysis for user-specified areas over user-specified time/date ranges and time intervals, electro-static surface potential analysis, subsetting of large data products, slope analysis, and Lunar Laser Ranging geometry calculation. Artificial intelligence (AI) and ma-chine learning (ML) based tools have been implemented for crater detection and hazard analysis, boulder detection and hazard analysis, and rockfall detection. New Tools Facilitating Exploration: Additional, new tools have recently been added and others are in development, offering even greater functionality in con-ducting analyses of potential landing sites and areas of surface operations. The new Line-of-Sight tool facilitates communications planning between locations on the lunar surface, between any given site on the lunar surface and a specified ground station on the Earth, and between a site on the lunar surface and a relay asset in lunar orbit, all taking into account local lunar topography. The new Data Plotter tool provides both tabular and graphical representations of pixel values along a user specified path for a growing number of data products. The new NAC Finder tool will identify and pro-vide access to NAC images that intersect a user-defined path or bounded area. The SSTP development team is looking to leverage the capabilities of its existing AI and ML crater, boulder, and rockfall detection and analysis tools, and extend that technology to a generalized feature detector that can be trained on instances of specific types of landforms and then search the lunar surface for more examples of such features. New traverse planning tools are being developed with use cases in generalized concept studies and specific mission planning in mind. These will facilitate finding optimal traverse paths based on constraints such as slope, lighting, hazard avoidance, and communications. These will be complemented by new traverse visualization capabilities. Users will be able to interactively ride along with a rover, examining 3D views of the terrain while adjusting camera height and viewing angle along with selecting different data layer overlays to drape across the terrain. Engaging the Public: The capabilities being developed for mission planning are being leveraged to further enhance Moon Trek’s proven utility as a valuable public outreach resource. This includes providing multiple lev-els of engagement with different points of entry. At its simplest level, promoting understanding through visualization, media and the public will be able to easily visualize and conduct their own exploration of lunar sites targeted by NASA and its partners. For a more in-depth experience, we are working with our stakeholders to promote understanding through interaction by extend-ing our current landing site and traverse analysis capabilities, making simplified access to these tools available to those who want to explore more deeply key factors in planning a mission through interactive and possibly even gamified experiences. The highest degree of public outreach, focusing on engagement through scientific participation, could be achieved through our work with missions and the NASA Office of the Chief Scientist on Moon Trek’s extension as a tool with specialized capabilities for facilitating citizen science. In such scenarios, participants become members of extended mis-sion science teams, using dedicated and integrated interfaces to analyze mission data to help answer questions key to lunar science and exploration. We are work-ing with NASA’s Office of Communications, museums, planetariums, and the media to help them easily integrate accurate, detailed visualizations of NASA’s lunar destinations and exploration into their content/productions and to engage diverse audiences in diverse venues.

Moon Trek↗

Electric Access System Enhancement (EASE): Assessment of a Distributed Energy Resource Management System for Enabling Dynamic Hosting Capacity

The Electric Access System Enhancement (EASE) project demonstrated a scalable, interoperable, and cost-effective means of integrating high penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). The control architecture developed leveraged a Distributed Energy Resource Management System, Distribution System Operator for transacting energy, and 3rd Party DER Aggregator platform. The project identified ways to enhance the customer interconnection process to the grid and improve access to information from DERs and optimize the usage of DERs to provide energy services in a simulated day-ahead shadow market while maintain grid reliability. By integrating these capabilities into a scalable system of systems, the DSO can effectively balance DER generation and customer demand on the distribution network. This capability allows the grid to host more DER than traditionally possible on wires alone. Hosting more DER has the added benefit of supplying increased demand growth, sometimes beyond the capacity limits of the distribution network itself. This is known as a dynamic hosting capacity, which could help utilities manage the forecasted growth in electricity demand as California switch to electric vehicles and appliances. This could help to establish energy storage and PV generation as a “pseudo firm” generation resource mix if managed appropriately and provide sufficient resource adequacy for distribution capacity upgrade deferrals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Conceptual Drivers for an Exploration Medical System

Interplanetary spaceflight, such as NASA's proposed three-year mission to Mars, provides unique and novel challenges when compared with human spaceflight to date. Extended distance and multi-year missions introduce new elements of operational complexity and additional risk. These elements include: inability to resupply medications and consumables, inability to evacuate injured or ill crew, uncharted psychosocial conditions, and communication delays that create a requirement for some level of autonomous medical capability. Because of these unique challenges, the approaches used in prior programs have limited application to a Mars mission. On a Mars mission, resource limitations will significantly constrain available medical capabilities, and require a paradigm shift in the approach to medical system design and risk mitigation for crew health. To respond to this need for a new paradigm, the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element is assessing each Mars mission phase-transit, surface stay, rendezvous, extravehicular activity, and return-to identify and prioritize medical needs for the journey beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). ExMC is addressing both planned medical operations, and unplanned contingency medical operations that meld clinical needs and research needs into a single system. This assessment is being used to derive a gap analysis and studies to support meaningful medical capabilities trades. These trades, in turn, allow the exploration medical system design to proceed from both a mission centric and ethics-based approach, and to manage the risks associated with the medical limitations inherent in an exploration class mission. This paper outlines the conceptual drivers used to derive medical system and vehicle needs from an integrated vision of how medical care will be provided within this paradigm. Keywords: (Max 6 keywords: exploration, medicine, spaceflight, Mars, research, NASA)

Antonsen, Erik↗

Integrated risk management

The purpose of this report is to first present a basis or foundation for the building of an integrated risk management plan and them to present the plan. The integration referred to is across both the temporal and the hierarchical dimensions. Complexity, consequence, and credibility seem to be driving the need for the consideration of risk. Reduction of personal bias and reproducibility of the decision making process seem to be driving the consideration of a formal risk plan. While risk can be used as either a selection tool or a control tool, this paper concentrates on the selection usage. Risk relies on stated purpose. The tightness of the definition of purpose and success is directly reflected in the definition and control of risk. Much of a risk management plan could be designed by the answers to the questions of why, what, who, when, and where. However, any plan must provide the following information about a threat or risk: likelihood, consequence, predictability, reliability, and reproducibility. While the environment at NASA is seen as warm, but not hot, for the introduction of a risk program, some encouragement is seen if the following problems are addressed: no champion, no commitment of resource, confused definitions, lack of direction and focus, a hard sell, NASA culture, many choices of assessment methods, and cost. The plan is designed to follow the normal method of doing work and is structured to follow either the work break down structure or a functional structure very well. The parts of the plan include: defining purpose and success, initial threat assessment, initial risk assessment, reconciling threats and parameters, putting part of the information down and factoring the information back into the decision process as it comes back up, and developing inferences. Two major suggestions are presented. One is to build an office of risk management to be used as a resource by managers in doing the risk process. Another is to form a pilot program to try out the details in the plan and modify the method where needed.

Hunsucker, J. L.↗

Fostering Multilateral Involvement in Analog Research

International collaboration in space flight research is an effective means for conducting investigations and utilizing limited resources to the fullest extent. Through these multilateral collaborations mutual research questions can be investigated and resources contributed by each international partner to maximize the scientific benefits to all parties. Recently the international partners embraced this approach to initiate collaborations in ground‐based space flight analog environments. In 2011, the International Analog Research Working Group was established, and later named the International Human Space Flight Analog Research Coordination Group (HANA). Among the goals of this working group are to 1) establish a framework to coordinate research campaigns, as appropriate, to minimize duplication of effort and enhance synergy; 2) define what analogs are best to use for collaborative interests; and 3) facilitate interaction between discipline experts in order to have the full benefit of international expertise. To accomplish these goals, HANA is currently engaged in developing international research campaigns in ground‐based analogs. Plans are being made for an international solicitation for proposals to address research of common interest to all international partners. This solicitation with identify an analog environment that will best accommodate the types of investigations requested. Once selected, studies will be integrated into a campaign and implemented at the analog site. Through these combined efforts, research beneficial to all partners will be conducted efficiently to further address human risks of space exploration.

Cromwell, Ronita L.↗

Future Homes in Space: Development of Concepts for Exploration Space Habitats

NASA’s Artemis campaign seeks to return humans to the moon and establish a sustained presence on the lunar surface. This session will emphasize how habitation capabilities on the moon and in cislunar space can potentially contribute to the sustainability objectives of Artemis. Habitable elements represent opportunities to enable longer duration stays, increase the number of crew members present, enhance science and utilization activities, drive technology development for future Mars exploration, perform analog missions, and fuel economic opportunities for US industry. Panelists include Paul Kessler (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, deputy lead for lunar surface habitation); Andrew Choate (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Mars habitation lead); Krystofer Dudzinski (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, a space architect within the MSFC Advanced Concepts Office); and Larry Toups (retired from NASA Johnson Space Center, currently an adjunct professor at University of Houston in space architecture). The panel is moderated by Tracie Prater (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Habitation Systems Development Office). The panel will begin with an overview of the history of habitation concepts and an academic perspective on general considerations in space habitat design (Larry Toups). Paul Kessler and Andrew Choate will introduce NASA’s principle of “architecting from the right” to help define objectives for Artemis missions, needs/characteristics, use cases, and functions (as published in the agency’s Architecture Definition Document) and provide perspective on how this principle informs habitation concept development work. NASA panelists will discuss key engineering challenges identified for developing, deploying, and operating habitable assets on the lunar surface and/or in deep space. These may include dust mitigation, outfitting of inflatable softgoods (for concepts which may use softgoods as a primary structural material), survival in lunar darkness, human health and performance considerations, maintenance/repair/sparing, and autonomy. These identified challenges represent risks for habitation systems development and relate closely to capability gaps identified by the agency. While the work of NASA Marshall Space Flight Center’s habitation development office is primarily focused on habitats which are launched from earth pre-integrated (referred to as Class I in the framework previously developed by NASA space architects Kennedy/Cohen) or launched from earth and deployed at the point of use (Class II), there is also extensive work in NASA, academia, and companies on constructed habitats, which would be built on a planetary surface using indigenous resources (Class III habitats). Panelist Krystopher Dudzinski will discuss potential evolutionary pathways from Class I and Class II habitats to Class III habitats, unique and common architectural challenges within each habitat class, and key gaps in implementing Class III habitats from an architectural perspective. NASA panelists and the moderator will also provide an overview of partnership opportunities and avenues for further engagement to advance habitation systems for the SpaceCom audience. NASA is currently developing notional concepts for a lunar surface habitat and Mars transit habitat, which will be discussed during this panel session and used as examples. These concepts represent options for habitation system design and are a point of departure. They do not represent a final plan or formal recommendation on the part of the agency. Based on the most recent analysis cycle, NASA’s lunar surface habitat (SH) concept nominally supports two crew members for 30 days, with the capacity to support four crew during a surge period where crew will swap between the SH and another surface asset, such as a pressurized rover. This example design has a metallic airlock for ingress/egress and the upper portion is an inflatable material system which serves as the habitation module. The notional interior of the habitat is a three-deck layout/configuration which supports all crew mission functions, including exercise, stowage, extravehicular activity (EVA), sleep, hygiene waste collection, maintenance and repair, and meal preparation. Under analysis assumptions for habitation, the Mars Transit Habitat (TH) concept would support four crew on an up to 1,200 day Mars mission. One option for the concept is to initially dock Transit Habitat at Gateway, where it can be used to increase the duration of crew stays in cislunar space and perform shakedown and analog missions prior to a Mars departure. One challenge in longer duration missions which involve both surface exploration and transit is understanding crew adaptation when transitioning between partial gravity and microgravity environments. TH at Gateway offers an opportunity to study this transition and in doing so reduce risks associated with future Mars exploration. Like lunar SH, the most recent analysis cycle concept of a Mars TH is a hybrid structure design, with a metallic section supporting EVAs, axial/radial docking, and Safe Haven capabilities, and an inflatable softgoods structure for the primary habitation function. Interior layouts to optimize crew usability and livability are currently under trade. The panel will include presentation material, but also seeks to engage the audience in a highly interactive conversation regarding the potential role for habitation in future exploration initiatives. Potential topics for discussion include the influence of the crew experience on habitation systems design and livability/usability considerations, the benefits of space habitation development in terrestrial applications, and challenges and opportunities in “feeding forward” lunar surface habitation systems development to Mars exploration.

space habitats↗

Systems Engineering for Space Exploration Medical Capabilities

Human exploration missions that reach destinations beyond low Earth orbit, such as Mars, will present significant new challenges to crew health management. For the medical system, lack of consumable resupply, evacuation opportunities, and real-time ground support are key drivers toward greater autonomy. Recognition of the limited mission and vehicle resources available to carry out exploration missions motivates the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element's approach to enabling the necessary autonomy. The Element's work must integrate with the overall exploration mission and vehicle design efforts to successfully provide exploration medical capabilities. ExMC is applying systems engineering principles and practices to accomplish its goals. This paper discusses the structured and integrative approach that is guiding the medical system technical development. Assumptions for the required levels of care on exploration missions, medical system goals, and a Concept of Operations are early products that capture and clarify stakeholder expectations. Model-Based Systems Engineering techniques are then applied to define medical system behavior and architecture. Interfaces to other flight and ground systems, and within the medical system are identified and defined. Initial requirements and traceability are established, which sets the stage for identification of future technology development needs. An early approach for verification and validation, taking advantage of terrestrial and near-Earth exploration system analogs, is also defined to further guide system planning and development.

Mindock, Jennifer↗

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.

Electric grid reliability↗

Transmission Data-Driven User-Defined Model for Inverter-based and Conventional Power Plants

Recent events in Odessa [1], [2] have shed light on the complexities of integrating large Inverter-Based Resource (IBR) plants with the transmission system, prompting NERC to stress continuous performance monitoring by transmission operators. Challenges such as plant control updates, IBR model revisions, Phase-locked loop loss of synchronism, and protection events have been identified, underscoring the need for enhanced monitoring protocols by regulatory bodies. The recent FERC 901 order underscores the importance of accurate data exchange regarding IBRs for reliability studies. However, limited access to IBR plant-related data hampers effective decision-making for transmission operators (TOP). This paper proposes a method for constructing data-driven User-Defined dynamic Models (UDM) for power plants for validating multiple-event data using field measurements from interconnection bus locations. The problem is formulated as a power plant model identification problem and a multi-task learning approach under partial input observability assumptions is proposed in this work. This approach aims to predict aggregated responses of conventional and IBR power plants during various dynamic physical events which is useful for planning studies under diverse disturbance conditions. Ultimately, this methodology emphasizes the importance of plant visibility to operators in addressing power system challenges, facilitating improved planning and operational studies.

Mahapatra, Kaveri [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗

Systems Engineering for Space Exploration Medical Capabilities

Human exploration missions to beyond low Earth orbit destinations such as Mars will present significant new challenges to crew health management during a mission compared to current low Earth orbit operations. For the medical system, lack of consumable resupply, evacuation opportunities, and real-time ground support are key drivers toward greater autonomy. Recognition of the limited mission and vehicle resources available to carry out exploration missions motivates the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element's approach to enabling the necessary autonomy. The Element's work must integrate with the overall exploration mission and vehicle design efforts to successfully provide exploration medical capabilities. ExMC is applying systems engineering principles and practices to accomplish its integrative goals. This paper discusses the structured and integrative approach that is guiding the medical system technical development. Assumptions for the required levels of care on exploration missions, medical system guiding principles, and a Concept of Operations are early products that capture and clarify stakeholder expectations. Mobel-Based Systems Engineering techniques are then applied to define medical system behavior and architecture. Interfaces to other flight and ground systems, and within the medical system are identified and defined. Initial requirements and traceability are established, which sets the stage for identification of future technology development needs. An early approach for verification and validation, taking advantage of terrestrial and near-Earth exploration system analogs, is also defined to further guide system planning and development.

Mindock, Jennifer↗

A genoscape–network model for conservation prioritization in a migratory bird

Migratory animals are declining worldwide and coordinated conservation efforts are needed to reverse current trends. We devised a novel genoscape-network model that combines genetic analyses with species distribution modeling and demographic data to overcome challenges with conceptualizing alternative risk factors in migratory species across their full annual cycle. We applied our method to the long distance, Neotropical migratory bird, Wilson's Warbler (Cardellina pusilla). Despite a lack of data from some wintering locations, we demonstrated how the results can be used to help prioritize conservation of breeding and wintering areas. For example, we showed that when genetic, demographic, and network modeling results were considered together it became clear that conservation recommendations will differ depending on whether the goal is to preserve unique genetic lineages or the largest number of birds per unit area. More specifically, if preservation of genetic lineages is the goal, then limited resources should be focused on preserving habitat in the California Sierra, Basin Rockies, or Coastal California, where the 3 most vulnerable genetic lineages breed, or in western Mexico, where 2 of the 3 most vulnerable lineages overwinter. Alternatively, if preservation of the largest number of individuals per unit area is the goal, then limited conservation dollars should be placed in the Pacific Northwest or Central America, where densities are estimated to be the highest. Overall, our results demonstrated the utility of adopting a genetically based network model for integrating multiple types of data across vast geographic scales and better inform conservation decision-making for migratory animals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Enhancing Responsiveness and Resilience with Distributed Applications in the Grid

A number of trends are increasing the variability in electric power systems resulting in a need for new approaches in control. The increased variability is originating from distributed energy resources and an increasing demand for personalized energy choice from customers grid-edge. Electricity distribution systems continue to incorporate increasing numbers of intelligent end devices, automated switchgear, and sensing and measurement devices which are providing more visibility and control at the grid-edge. Traditional distribution system planning and operations techniques must evolve to meet the new complexity while continuing to deliver safe, reliable, and cost-effective energy. New technologies are enabling new capabilities at the grid-edge to respond to these needs. Distributed applications can deploy intelligence across the distribution grid with peer-to-peer communications and a shared data context for their local environment. These applications can cooperate with each other to respond quickly to changing grid conditions. This enables a layered coordination framework spanning the centralized Advanced Distribution Management System functions with wide area visibility to these new distributed applications running at intelligent devices and meters throughout the distribution system. This paper describes an open-architecture, open-source system approach for commercial scale integration of devices and intelligence at the grid-edge.

Ogle, James P.↗

The HYSPIRI Decadal Survey Mission: Update on the Mission Concept and Science Objectives for Global Imaging Spectroscopy and Multi-Spectral Thermal Measurements

The NASA HyspIRI mission is planned to provide global solar reflected energy spectroscopic measurement of the terrestrial and shallow water regions of the Earth every 19 days will all measurements downlinked. In addition, HyspIRI will provide multi-spectral thermal measurements with a single band in the 4 micron region and seven bands in the 8 to 12 micron region with 5 day day/night coverage. A direct broadcast capability for measurement subsets is also planned. This HyspIRI mission is one of those designated in the 2007 National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey: Earth Science and Applications from Space. In the Decadal Survey, HyspIRI was recognized as relevant to a range of Earth science and science applications, including climate: "A hyperspectral sensor (e.g., FLORA) combined with a multispectral thermal sensor (e.g., SAVII) in low Earth orbit (LEO) is part of an integrated mission concept [described in Parts I and II] that is relevant to several panels, especially the climate variability panel." The HyspIRI science study group was formed in 2008 to evaluate and refine the mission concept. This group has developed a series of HyspIRI science objectives: (1) Climate: Ecosystem biochemistry, condition & feedback; spectral albedo; carbon/dust on snow/ice; biomass burning; evapotranspiration (2) Ecosystems: Global plant functional types, physiological condition, and biochemistry including agricultural lands (3) Fires: Fuel status, fire frequency, severity, emissions, and patterns of recovery globally (4) Coral reef and coastal habitats: Global composition and status (5) Volcanoes: Eruptions, emissions, regional and global impact (6) Geology and resources: Global distributions of surface mineral resources and improved understanding of geology and related hazards These objectives are achieved with the following measurement capabilities. The HyspIRI imaging spectrometer provides: full spectral coverage from 380 to 2500 at 10 nm sampling; 60 m spatial sampling with a 150 km swath; and fully downlinked coverage of the Earth's terrestrial and shallow water regions every 19 days to provide seasonal cloud-free coverage of the terrestrial surface. The HyspIRI Multi-Spectral Thermal instrument provides: 8 spectral bands from 4 to 12 microns; 60 m spatial sampling with a 600 km swath; and fully downlinked coverage of the Earth's terrestrial shallow water regions every 5 days (day/night) to provide nominally cloud-free monthly coverage. The HyspIRI mission also includes an on-board processing and direct broadcast capability, referred to as the Intelligent Payload Module (IPM), which will allow users with the appropriate antenna to download a subset of the HyspIRI data stream to a local ground station. These science and science application objectives are critical today and uniquely addressed by the combined imaging spectroscopy, thermal infrared measurements, and IPM direct broadcast capability of HyspIRI. Two key objectives are: (1) The global HyspIRI spectroscopic measurements of the terrestrial biosphere including vegetation composition and function to constrain and reduce the uncertainty in climate-carbon interactions and terrestrial biosphere feedback. (2) The global 8 band thermal measurements to provide improved constraint of fire related emissions. In this paper the current HyspIRI mission concept that has been reviewed and refined to its current level of maturity with a Data Products Symposium, Science Workshop and NASA HWorkshop is presented including traceability between the measurements and the science and science application objectives.

Green, Robert O.↗