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At least 883 records · Page 49

Multidecadal shifts in forest plant diversity and community composition across glacial landforms in northern lower Michigan, USA

Understanding how plant community assemblage is affected by spatial and temporal patterns is crucial to understanding forest ecosystem responses to disturbance, including future climate change. In this article, we tracked how diversity and composition are distributed through space and time in a midsuccessional mixed hardwood forest in northern lower Michigan, United States. This region’s geographically and abiotically distinct glacial landforms influence both the spatial and temporal dynamics of its forest communities. Vegetation sampling plots (n = 87) were established at the University of Michigan Biological Station in 1990 and resampled in 2015. Vegetation in the overstory, sapling, and groundcover layers was censused. Abiotic variables, including elevation, pH, and soil nutrients, were measured in a subset of plots (n = 40). There were strong differences in diversity and community composition among glacial landforms, with the moraine having a 31% greater species richness in the groundcover layer compared with those of the other glacial landforms. Surprisingly, plant communities across all three vegetation layers showed little change over the 25-year period, and we found no evidence of differences in successional rates among glacial landforms. Our findings indicate that glacial landforms have a large influence on the production and maintenance of local plant diversity and community composition in this area and suggest that successional dynamics may manifest themselves over much longer time periods in these northern biomes.

Forestry↗

New Solids in As-O-Mo, As(P)-O-Mo(W) and As(P)-O-Nb(W) Systems That Exhibit Nonlinear Optical Properties

Interactions between well-mixed fine powders of As 2 O 3 , P 2 O 5 , MoO 3 , WO 3 and Nb 2 O 5 at different stoichiometry in quartz ampoules under vacuum at ~1000 °C in the presence of metallic molybdenum (or niobium), over several weeks, led to shiny dichroic crystalline materials being formed in cooler parts of the reaction vessel. An addition of small quantities of metals-Mo or Nb-was made with the aim of partially reducing their highly oxidized Mo(VI), W(VI) or Nb(V) species to corresponding Mo(V), W(V) and Nb(IV) centers, in order to form mixed valence solids. Sublimed crystals of four new compounds were investigated using a variety of techniques, with prime emphasis on the X-ray analysis, followed by spectroscopy (diffusion reflectance, IR, Raman and EPR), second harmonic generation (SHG), thermal analysis under N 2 and air atmosphere, and single crystals electrical conductivity studies. The results evidenced the formation of new complex solids of previously unknown compositions and structures. Three out of four compounds crystallized in non-centrosymmetric space groups and represent layered 2D polymeric puckered structures that being stacked on each other form 3D lattices. All new solids exhibit strong second-harmonic-generation (SHG effect; based on YAG 1064 nm tests with detection of 532 nm photons), and a rare photosalient effect when crystals physically move in the laser beam. Single crystals’ electrical conductivity of the four new synthesized compounds was measured, and the results showed their semiconductor behavior. Values of band gaps of these new solids were determined using diffusion reflectance spectroscopy in the visible region. Aspects of new solids’ practical usefulness are discussed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Long-Range Charge Transport Facilitated by Electron Delocalization in MoS 2 and Carbon Nanotube Heterostructures

Controlling charge transport at the interfaces of nanostructures is crucial for their successful use in optoelectronic and solar energy applications. Mixed-dimensional heterostructures based on single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) and transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs) have demonstrated exceptionally long-lived charge-separated states. However, the factors that control the charge transport at these interfaces remain unclear. In this study, we directly image charge transport at the interfaces of single- and multilayered MoS 2 and (6,5) SWCNT heterostructures using transient absorption microscopy. We find that charge recombination becomes slower as the layer thickness of MoS 2 increases. This behavior can be explained by electron delocalization in multilayers and reduced orbital overlap with the SWCNTs, as suggested by nonadiabatic (NA) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Dipolar repulsion of interfacial excitons results in rapid density-dependent transport within the first 100 ps. Stronger repulsion and longer-range charge transport are observed in heterostructures with thicker MoS 2 layers, driven by electron delocalization and larger interfacial dipole moments. These findings are consistent with the results from NAMD simulations. Our results suggest that heterostructures with multilayer MoS 2 can facilitate long-lived charge separation and transport, which is promising for applications in photovoltaics and photocatalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Optimising the geospatial configuration of a future lithium ion battery recycling industry in the transition to electric vehicles and a circular economy

Rapid electrification of the transport system will generate substantial volumes of Lithium-ion-battery (LiB) waste as batteries reach their end-of-life. Much attention focuses on the recycling processes, neglecting a broader systemic view that considers the concentration of the costs and impacts associated with logistics and transportation. This paper provides an economic, environmental and geospatial analysis of a future LiB recycling industry in the UK. Hitherto, state-of-the-art assessment methods have evaluated life cycle impacts and costs but have not considered the geographical layer of the problem. This paper develops a GSC derived supply chain model for the UK electric vehicle and end-of-life vehicle battery industry. Considering both pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical recycling technologies, the optimisation process takes into account anticipated EV volumes, and, based on anticipated near-term technological evolution of LiBs, the evolution of the mix of battery cathodes in production, and presents a number of scenarios to show where LiB recycling facilities should ideally be geographically located. An economic and environmental assessment based on a customised EverBatt model is provided.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Examining conditions supporting the development of anomalous charge structures in supercell thunderstorms in the Southeastern United States

Hypotheses regarding favorable conditions for anomalous charging have primarily resulted from studies within the Great Plains region of the United States, where the efficiency of warm precipitation processes is thought to be fundamental. Rare observations of anomalous charge structures in the Southeastern region challenge existing conceptual models used to explain anomalous charging. As a rigorous evaluation of conditions that support anomalous charge structures, environmental characteristics and bulk kinematic and microphysical properties of two normal and two anomalous supercell thunderstorms observed in the Southeast were compared in this paper. Within the anomalous supercells, greater quantities of precipitation ice were identified at higher altitudes and colder temperatures, suggesting a greater depth of riming growth and increased vertical transport of rimed hydrometeors. Deeper anomalous supercell updrafts were larger and stronger in the upper mixed-phase and glaciated regions. However, normal supercells were characterized by more robust low-level updrafts, resulting in comparable warm cloud residence times that suggested warm precipitation processes were not necessarily less efficient in the anomalous supercells. Indications of enhanced mixed-phase liquid water content in favor of anomalous charging were observed in the anomalous supercells, though contrasts in related environmental parameters were not as large as observed in other comparative studies. Anomalous supercell environments were characterized by increased instability, shallower warm cloud depth, as well as lower relative humidity in the 700 mb to 500 mb layer. Evidence of impacts from dry air in anomalous storm structures suggested that water vapor content may have affected particle-scale charge transfer in support of anomalous charge structure development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hybrid magnonics in hybrid perovskite antiferromagnets

Abstract Hybrid magnonic systems are a newcomer for pursuing coherent information processing owing to their rich quantum engineering functionalities. One prototypical example is hybrid magnonics in antiferromagnets with an easy-plane anisotropy that resembles a quantum-mechanically mixed two-level spin system through the coupling of acoustic and optical magnons. Generally, the coupling between these orthogonal modes is forbidden due to their opposite parity. Here we show that the Dzyaloshinskii–Moriya-Interaction (DMI), a chiral antisymmetric interaction that occurs in magnetic systems with low symmetry, can lift this restriction. We report that layered hybrid perovskite antiferromagnets with an interlayer DMI can lead to a strong intrinsic magnon-magnon coupling strength up to 0.24 GHz, which is four times greater than the dissipation rates of the acoustic/optical modes. Our work shows that the DMI in these hybrid antiferromagnets holds promise for leveraging magnon-magnon coupling by harnessing symmetry breaking in a highly tunable, solution-processable layered magnetic platform.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Diagnostic development for parallel wave-number measurement of lower hybrid waves in EAST

In this study, an eight-channel magnetic probe diagnostic system has been designed and installed adjacent to the 4.6 GHz lower hybrid (LH) grill antenna in the low-field side of the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) in order to study the n ∥ evolution of LH waves in the first pass from the launcher to the core plasma. The magnetic probes are separated by 6.6 mm, which allows measurement of the dominant parallel refractive index n ∥ up to n ∥ = 5 for 4.6 GHz LH waves. The magnetic probes are designed to be sensitive to the magnetic field component perpendicular to the background magnetic field with a slit on the casing that encloses the probe. The intermediate frequency stage, which consists of two mixing stages, down-coverts the frequency of the measured wave signals at 4.6 GHz to 20 MHz. A bench test demonstrates the phase stability of the magnetic probe diagnostic system. By evaluating the phase variation of the measured signals along the background magnetic field, the dominant n ∥ of the LH wave in the scrape-off layer has been deduced during the 2019 experimental campaign. In the low density plasma, the measured dominant n ∥ of the LH waves is about 2.1, corresponding to the main peak 2.04 of the launched n ∥ spectrum. n ∥ deduced by the least-squares linear fit method remains near this value in the low density plasma with a high spatial correlation magnitude of 0.9. With an eight-channel probe system, a wave-number spectrum has also been deduced, which has a peak near to the measured dominant n ∥ .

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Diagnostic development for parallel wave-number measurement of lower hybrid waves in EAST

An eight-channel magnetic probe diagnostic system has been designed and installed adjacent to the 4.6 GHz lower hybrid (LH) grill antenna in the low-field side of the EAST tokamak in order to study the n|| evolution of lower hybrid waves in the first pass from the launcher to the core plasma. The magnetic probes are separated by 6.6 mm, which allows measurement of the dominant parallel refractive index n|| up to n|| =5 for 4.6GHz LH waves. The magnetic probes are designed to be sensitive to the magnetic field component perpendicular to the background magnetic field with a slit on the casing that encloses the probe. The intermediate frequency (IF) stage, which consists of two mixing stages, down-coverts the frequency of the measured wave signals at 4.6 GHz to 20 MHz. A bench test demonstrates the phase stability of the magnetic probe diagnostic system. By evaluating the phase variation of the measured signals along the background magnetic field, the dominant n|| of the LH wave in the scrape-off layer (SOL) has been deduced during the 2019 experimental campaign. In the low density plasma, the measured dominant n|| of the lower hybrid waves is about 2.1, corresponding to the main peak 2.04 of the launched n|| spectrum. The n|| deduced by the least square linear fit method remains near this value in the low density plasma with a high spatial correlation magnitude of 0.9. With an eight-channel probe system a wave-number spectrum has also been deduced, which has a peak near to the measured dominant n||.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Sub-Diurnal Methane Variations on Mars Driven by Barometric Pumping and Planetary Boundary Layer Evolution

In recent years, the Tunable Laser Spectrometer within the Sample Analysis at Mars (TLS-SAM) instrument on board the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity rover has detected methane variations in the atmosphere at Gale crater. Methane concentrations appear to fluctuate seasonally as well as sub-diurnally, which is difficult to reconcile with an as-yet-unknown transport mechanism delivering the gas from underground to the atmosphere. To potentially explain the fluctuations, we consider barometrically induced transport of methane from an underground source to the surface, modulated by temperature-dependent adsorption. The subsurface fractured-rock seepage model is coupled to a simplified 1-D atmospheric mixing model to provide insights on the pattern of atmospheric methane concentrations in response to transient surface methane emissions, as well as to predict sub-diurnal variation in methane abundance for the northern summer period, which is a candidate time frame for a MSL Curiosity sampling campaign. Our analysis suggests that there is a lower limit to the subsurface fracture density that can produce the observed methane patterns, below which the atmospheric methane variations would be out of phase with the observations. The best-performing model scenarios indicate a significant, short-lived methane pulse just prior to sunrise, the detection of which by TLS-SAM would be a potential indicator of the contribution of barometric pumping to Mars' atmospheric methane variations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Challenging and Improving the Simulation of Mid-Level Mixed-Phase Clouds Over the High-Latitude Southern Ocean

Climate models exhibit major radiative biases over the Southern Ocean owing to a poor representation of mixed-phase clouds. In this study, we used the remote-sensing dataset from the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) campaign to assess the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to reproduce frontal clouds off Antarctica. It focuses on the modeling of thin mid-level supercooled liquid water layers which precipitate ice. The standard version of WRF produces almost fully glaciated clouds and cannot reproduce cloud top turbulence. Our work demonstrates the importance of adapting the ice nucleation parameterization to the pristine austral atmosphere to reproduce the supercooled liquid layers. Once simulated, droplets significantly impact the cloud radiative effect by increasing downwelling longwave fluxes and decreasing downwelling shortwave fluxes at the surface. The net radiative effect is a warming of snow and ice covered surfaces and a cooling of the ocean. Despite improvements in our simulations, the local turbulent circulation related to cloud-top radiative cooling is not properly reproduced, advocating for the need to develop a parameterization for top-down convection to capture the turbulence-microphysics interplay at cloud top.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advanced manufacturing for electrosynthesis of fuels and chemicals from CO 2

Advanced manufacturing (AM) represents an appealing approach for creating novel electrochemical systems for chemicals synthesis. In this work, we demonstrate AM for rapid development and testing for improved performance for the carbon dioxide reduction reaction across an evolution of vapor-fed reactor designs. In our final design, we observe activation- and mixed-control regimes for a variety of operating conditions via inlet CO 2 flow rate and electrochemical potential. Furthermore, we define a dimensionless number (Da) to identify mass transport regimes by exploring the impact of hypothesized underlying mass transport mechanisms, including consumption of CO 2 via OH - , increased local temperatures, and partial penetration of electrolyte into gas diffusion layer. The accelerated pace of reactor design and development led to high geometric current densities (500 mA cm -2 ), heightened selectivity (85.5% FE C 2+ products), and increased carbon dioxide conversion (16.6%) and cathodic energy efficiency (49.6% CO 2 R). Using AM vapor-fed reactors, we attain high ethylene (3.67%) and record ethanol (3.66%) yields compared to the literature. Finally, this work underscores the promise of AM for accelerating reactor design, understanding of governing phenomena, and improving the performance of catalytic systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tandem In 2 O 3 -Pt/Al 2 O 3 catalyst for coupling of propane dehydrogenation to selective H 2 combustion

Tandem catalysis couples multiple reactions and promises to improve chemical processing, but precise spatiotemporal control over reactive intermediates remains elusive. We used atomic layer deposition to grow In 2 O 3 over Pt/Al 2 O 3 , and this nanostructure kinetically couples the domains through surface hydrogen atom transfer, resulting in propane dehydrogenation (PDH) to propylene by platinum, then selective hydrogen combustion by In 2 O 3 , without excessive hydrocarbon combustion. Other nanostructures, including platinum on In 2 O 3 or platinum mixed with In 2 O 3 , favor propane combustion because they cannot organize the reactions sequentially. The net effect is rapid and stable oxidative dehydrogenation of propane at high per-pass yields exceeding the PDH equilibrium. Tandem catalysis using this nanoscale overcoating geometry is validated as an opportunity for highly selective catalytic performance in a grand challenge reaction.

Yan, Huan↗

Actinic and electron beam radiation curable water based electrode binders and electrodes incorporating same

A process for manufacturing an electrode utilizing electron beam (EB) or actinic radiation to cure the electrode binder is provided. A process is also disclosed for mixing specific actinic or EB radiation curable polymer precursors with electrode solid particles to form an aqueous mixture, application of the mixture to an electrode current collector, followed by the application of actinic or EB radiation to the current collector for curing the polymer, thereby binding the electrode binder to the current collector. Lithium ion batteries, electric double layer capacitors, and components produced therefrom are also provided.

Voelker, Gary E.↗

Single crystal neutron and magnetic measurements of Rb 2 Mn 3 (VO 4 ) 2 CO 3 and K 2 Co 3 (VO 4 ) 2 CO 3 with mixed honeycomb and triangular magnetic lattices

Two new alkali vanadate carbonates with divalent transition metals have been synthesized as large single crystals via a high-temperature (600 °C) hydrothermal technique. Compound I, Rb 2 Mn 3 (VO 4 ) 2 CO 3 , crystallizes in the trigonal crystal system in the space group P[3 with combining macron]1c, and compound II, K 2 Co 3 (VO 4 ) 2 CO 3 , crystallizes in the hexagonal space group P6 3 /m. Both structures contain honeycomb layers and triangular lattices made from edge-sharing MO 6 octahedra and MO 5 trigonal bipyramids, respectively. The honeycomb and triangular layers are connected along the c-axis through tetrahedral [VO 4 ] groups. The MO 5 units are connected with each other by carbonate groups in the ab-plane by forming a triangular magnetic lattice. The difference in space groups between I and II was also investigated with Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations. Single crystal magnetic characterization of I indicates three magnetic transitions at 77 K, 2.3 K, and 1.5 K. The corresponding magnetic structures for each magnetic transition of I were determined using single crystal neutron diffraction. At 77 K the compound orders in the MnO 6 -honeycomb layer in a Néel-type antiferromagnetic orientation while the MnO 5 triangular lattice ordered below 2.3 K in a colinear ‘up–up–down’ fashion, followed by a planar ‘Y’ type magnetic structure. K 2 Co 3 (VO 4 ) 2 CO 3 (II) exhibits a canted antiferromagnetic ordering below T N = 8 K. Here, the Curie–Weiss fit (200–350 K) gives a Curie–Weiss temperature of –42 K suggesting a dominant antiferromagnetic coupling in the Co 2+ magnetic sublattices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Scalable Manufacturing of Efficient Perovskite/Silicon Tandem Modules

Crystalline-Si (c-Si) technology produces excellent solar cells with conversion efficiencies of up to 26.7%—nearly their practical limit of 27%—and has been commercialized extensively to produce panels below $\$0.40$/W. Techno-economic analysis shows that module efficiency will continue to be a primary cost driver because of high balance-ofsystems costs, and there is no path to higher efficiencies with single-junction silicon cells. In this project, three research teams from University of North Carolina, Arizona State University and National Renewable National Laboratory worked together to develop perovskite-silicon tandem cells with a high throughput process which can handle 5000 wafers per hour, enabled by very low added CAPEX of ~$20k for a doctor-blade coater. This can potentially increase the module efficiency to 30% (with grid) with small increase of cost, which will drive down the cost of silicon modules to be at least 16% cheaper than present silicon PERC modules. We also explored the alternative narrow bandgap perovskites as silicon replacement for all perovskite tandem cells. This project has substantially advanced the progress of solution-process perovskitessilicon tandem solar cells and perovskite-perovskite tandem solar cells with many inventions and discoveries, evidenced by 18 publications and 6 invention disclosures. Several notable examples include 1) we developed the new idea of small pyramid in combination with solution grown perovskites and demonstrated record-efficiency of 28.5% for 1 cm2 on textured silicon bottom cells and 25.2% for 24 cm2 on chemically etched silicon bottom cells for perovskite-silicon tandem cells. 2) We developed perovskite ink that can coat perovskites onto texture silicon without voids;, and new device structure to enhance the yield of fabrication by reducing shunting 3) We identified the origin of open circuit voltage on mixed halide wide bandgap perovskites, and came with a solution for this problem, reducing the voltage loss to a record small value, which can potentially push the perovskite-silicon tandem cell efficiency to over 31%; 4) We have developed efficient alternative low bandgap semiconductors, i.e. gradient-doped Sn based perovskites by Ba ions, new oxide hole transport layers which increase the efficiency of perovskite/perovskite tandem cells reached record efficiency of 26.3%; 5) We developed bifacial perovskite/perovskite tandem cells by overcoming contacts issues and regaining light absorption, further boosting the equivalent efficiency to 29.3% under 1 sun illumination with 30% albedo light; 6) We developed the first all perovskite tandem module fabricated in air by discovery a combination of oxidization and reduction couples, yield an aperture efficiency of 21.6% for all perovskite mininodules, exceeding that of single junction perovskite minimodules. These discoveries not only accelerate the commercialization of perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells, but also provide guidance in designing other type of perovskite solar cell technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Oxygen Electrocatalysis on Mixed-Metal Oxides/Oxyhydroxides: From Fundamentals to Membrane Electrolyzer Technology

Catalyzing the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) is important for key energy-storage technologies, particularly water electrolysis and photoelectrolysis for hydrogen fuel production. Under neutral-to-alkaline conditions, first-row transition-metal oxides/(oxy)hydroxides are the fastest-known OER catalysts and have been the subject of intense study for the past decade. Critical to their high performance is the intentional or accidental addition of Fe to Ni/Co oxides that convert to layered (oxy)hydroxide structures during the OER. Unraveling the role that Fe plays in the catalysis and the molecular identity of the true “active site” has proved challenging, however, due to the dynamics of the host structure and absorbed Fe sites as well as the diversity of local structures in these disordered active phases. In this Account, we highlight our work to understand the role of Fe in Ni/Co (oxy)hydroxide OER catalysts. We first discuss how we characterize the intrinsic activity of the first-row transition-metal (oxy)hydroxide catalysts as thin films by accounting for the contributions of the catalyst-layer thickness (mass loading) and electrical conductivity as well as the underlying substrate’s chemical interactions with the catalyst and the presence of Fe species in the electrolyte. We show how Fe-doped Ni/Co (oxy)hydroxides restructure during catalysis, absorb/desorb Fe, and in some cases degrade or regenerate their activity during electrochemical testing. We highlight the relevant techniques and procedures that allowed us to better understand the role of Fe in activating other first-row transition metals for OER. We find several modes of Fe incorporation in Ni/Co (oxy)hydroxides and show how those modes correlate with activity and durability. We also discuss how this understanding informs the incorporation of earth-abundant transition-metal OER catalysts in anion-exchange-membrane water electrolyzers (AEMWE) that provide a locally basic anode environment but run on pure water and have advantages over the more-developed proton-exchange-membrane water electrolyzers (PEMWE) that use platinum-group-metal (PGM) catalysts. We outline the key issues of introducing Fe-doped Ni/Co (oxy)hydroxide catalysts at the anode of the AEMWE, such as the oxidative processes triggered by Fe species traveling through the polymer membrane, pH-gradient effects on the catalyst stability, and possibly limited catalyst utilization in the compressed stack configuration. We also suggest possible mitigation strategies for these issues. Lastly, we summarize remaining challenges including the long-term stability of Fe-doped Ni/Co (oxy)hydroxides under OER conditions and the lack of accurate models of the dynamic active surface that hinder our understanding of, and thus ability to design, these catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

La 0.6 Sr 0.4 CoO 3−δ Films Under Deoxygenation: Magnetic And Electronic Transitions Are Apart from The Structural Phase Transition

Abstract Topotactic phase transitions induced by changes in the oxygen vacancy concentration can largely alter the physical properties of complex oxides, including electronic and magnetic phases, while maintaining the structural integrity of the crystal lattice. An oxygen‐vacancy‐induced topotactic phase transition from perovskite (PV) to brownmillerite (BM) is achieved in epitaxial La 0.6 Sr 0.4 CoO 3−δ (LSCO) thin films. Two novel intermediate states with different oxygen content are identified by X‐ray diffraction, which involves a single‐phase reduced PV state and a mixed state of co‐existing PV and BM. The combination of depth‐sensitive polarized neutron reflectometry (PNR) and Rutherford backscattering (RBS) allows a quantitative determination of magnetization and the mean oxygen content in all states, revealing a continuous transition from La 0.6 Sr 0.4 CoO 2.97 to La 0.6 Sr 0.4 CoO 2.5 . BM formation is observed for an LSCO layer with an oxygen content of 2.67, while the magnetic and electronic transition already occurs for a layer with a higher oxygen content of 2.77 (and above) and in the absence of a BM signature. These results demonstrate that the physics of electronic metal‐to‐insulator transition (MIT), magnetic ferromagnet‐to‐non‐ferromagnet transition (FM‐to‐non‐FM), and structural PV‐to‐BM phase transition should be considered within the framework of separate but interrelated processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗