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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2010

Finite Element Analysis on Spread for In-plane Roll-bending Process

The in-plane roll-bending process is a special wedge rolling with a configuration of two conical rolls which can form strips into open ring products. The spread of a ring is usually not considered in previous radius predicting models by Yang et al. and Xian et al. However, the spread increases to 10% for a ring with average reduction of 56%, and there is a discrepancy between the predicted radius and the experiment. Spread analysis/calculation has become an urgent problem in radius prediction and precision control of unequal deformation in this process. A finite element (FE) model considering spread effect is established and evaluated by experiments. A comparison between the predicted results with/without considering spread by FE analysis and experiments is carried out. The result shows that the predicted results considering spread are much closer to the experiments than those without considering spread effect. Based on the FE simulation, the spread characteristics of the ring with two types of cross section (including partly and entirely compressed cross section) are investigated. It is found that, there exist three spread regions, including outer positive region, middle negative region and inner positive region for the partly compressed ring; and there are outer positive region and inner negative region for the entirely compressed ring. The spread mostly happens at the outer positive region for both types of ring. The effects of process parameters, such as wedge angle, bite location, friction coefficient and rotational speed of roll, on spread for three aluminum alloys, 3A21O, 5A02O and 2A12T4, are investigated. The results indicate that the spread decreases with an increase in wedge angle, whereas increases with the growth of bite location; the spread remains stable with increasing friction coefficient and fluctuates within 3%-8% with a rise in rotational speed of roll. The spread of the partly compressed ring is less than 6%; large spread (larger than 6%) occurs when the ring is entirely compressed; the spread may reach a maximum value of 18.8% for material 5A02O.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

A multi-mode state-space dynamic model for Pyrofusion neutron sources - 371

Pyrofusion neutron sources are compact, low power systems which may be capable of producing short intense pulses of neutrons from D-D fusion reactions. The neutron pulse duration has been too short for use as a continuous wave source, and too long for application in interrogation techniques. However, initial analysis of Pyrofusion dynamics has indicated the potential to manipulate the pulse characteristics through system control. This paper introduces the development of state-space multimode system models in MATLAB/Simulink that may be used to support the predictability and control of the neutron pulse. Preliminary examples of frequency-domain studies, stability analysis and time-domain simulations are reported. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Automated Motion Libraries for Enhanced Data-Driven Intelligence (FY19 Technical Report)

Hypersonic vehicles hold great promise for a range of applications. However, they are subject to complex dynamics including high temperatures, thick boundary layers, and gas reaction effects. These coupled nonlinear dynamics make vehicle control and planning especially challenging. Specifically, it is very difficult to rapidly predict the vehicle response to control inputs and time-varying conditions. While reduced order models have shown great promise for predicting behavior in a more rapid manner, these techniques still require powerful computers and several simplifying assumptions. As a result, we currently lack the ability to rapidly plan (or re-plan) the trajectories of hypersonic vehicles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2

Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. Here, we evaluate the modeled TC climatology and the probabilistic forecast skill of basin-wide TC genesis at weekly temporal resolution. Prediction skill is calculated using the Brier skill score relative to a constant annual mean climatology and to a monthly varying seasonal climatology during TC season. The model captures the observed basin-wide climatological TC seasonality and spatial distributions at weeks 1–6, but TC genesis is largely underestimated from Week 2 onward. For some basins and lead times, the predicted TC genesis is primarily controlled by the number of TC “seeds” and the mean-state climate condition. The model has good prediction skill relative to the constant climatology across all the basins and lead times, but is only skillful in the eastern Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere at Week 1 when compared to the seasonal climatology, indicating limited skill in predicting deviations from the seasonal cycle. We find strong modulations of the predicted TC genesis at up to 3 weeks of forecast lead time by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The interannual variability of predicted TC genesis and accumulated cyclone energy are skillfully predicted in the North Atlantic and the Northwestern Pacific, with a strong modulation by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Feedback control design for non-inductively sustained scenarios in NSTX-U using TRANSP

This paper examines a method for real-time control of non-inductively sustained scenarios in NSTX-U by using TRANSP,a time-dependent integrated modeling code for prediction and interpretive analysis of tokamak experimental data, as asimulator. The actuators considered for control in this work are the six neutral beam sources and the plasma boundaryshape. To understand the response of the plasma current, stored energy, and central safety factor to these actuatorsand to enable systematic design of control algorithms, simulations were run in which the actuators were modulated anda linearized dynamic response model was generated. A multi-variable model-based control scheme that accounts for thecoupling and slow dynamics of the system while mitigating the effect of actuator limitations was designed andsimulated. Simulations show that modest changes in the outer gap and heating power can improve the response time ofthe system, reject perturbations, and track target values of the controlled values.

Predictive simulations↗
DOE OSTI2022

Empirical relationships between environmental factors and soil organic carbon produce comparable prediction accuracy as the Machine Learning

Accurate representation of environmental controllers of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Earth System Model (ESM) land models could reduce uncertainties in future carbon-climate feedback projections. Using empirical relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks to evaluate land models can help modelers understand prediction biases beyond what can be achieved with the observed SOC stocks alone. In this study, we used 31 observed environmental factors, field SOC observations (n = 6,213) from the continental US, and two Machine Learning approaches [Random Forest (RF) and Generalized Additive Modeling (GAM)] to (1) select important environmental predictors of SOC stocks, (2) derive empirical relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks, and (3) use the derived relationships to predict SOC stocks and compare the prediction accuracy of simpler model developed with the machine learning predictions. Out of the 31 environmental factors we investigated, 12 were identified as important predictors of SOC stocks by the RF approach. In contrast, the GAM approach identified six (of those 12) environmental factors as important controllers of SOC stocks: potential evapotranspiration, normalized difference vegetation index, soil drainage condition, precipitation, elevation, and net primary productivity. The GAM approach showed minimal SOC predictive importance of the remaining six environmental factors identified by the RF approach. Our derived empirical relations produced comparable prediction accuracy as the GAM and RF approach using only a subset of environmental factors. The empirical relationships we derived using the GAM approach can serve as important benchmarks to evaluate environmental control representations of SOC stocks in ESMs, which could reduce uncertainty in predicting future carbon-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy Consumption and Cost Reduction of Future Light-Duty Vehicles through Advanced Vehicle Technologies: A Modeling Simulation Study Through 2050

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) aim to develop sustainable, affordable and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate vehicle-level fuel savings potential is critical for understanding DOE’s impact. In this work, we simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light duty vehicles. The simulations were performed across: Multiple powertrain configurations (i.e., conventional, power-split, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles), Vehicle classes (i.e., compact car, midsize car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], midsize SUV, and pickup trucks); and Fuels (i.e., gasoline, diesel, hydrogen, and battery electricity). These various technologies are assessed for six different timeframes: laboratory years 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. A delay of 5 years is assumed between laboratory year and model year (year technology is introduced into production). Finally, uncertainties are included for both technology performance and cost aspects by considering two cases: Low case, aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on regulations, business as usual; and High case, aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on R&D targets developed through support by VTO & HFTO. These scenarios are not intended as predictions of future performances. The energy and cost impact of different technologies were estimated using Autonomie (www.autonomie.net), Argonne vehicle system simulation tool. Autonomie is a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool used to assess the energy consumption, performance and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies across classes (from light to heavy duty), powertrains (from conventional to HEVs, FCEVs, PHEVs and BEVs), components and control strategies. Autonomie is packaged with a complete set of vehicle models for a wide range of vehicle classes, powertrain configurations and component technologies, including vehicle level and component level controls. These controls were developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies including analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrains components for different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route based vehicle energy control and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions and estimates the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs for the various types of light duty vehicles. All details of vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of 𝑑 2⁢ 𝜎/𝑑⁢|$\vec{q}$|⁢𝑑⁢𝐸 avail in charged current 𝜈 𝜇 -nucleus interactions at ⟨𝐸 𝜈 ⟩=1.86 GeV using the NOvA Near Detector

Double- and single-differential cross sections for inclusive charged-current 𝜈 𝜇 -nucleus scattering are reported for the kinematic domain 0 to 2 GeV/𝑐 in three-momentum transfer and 0 to 2 GeV in available energy, at a mean 𝜈 𝜇 energy of 1.86 GeV. The measurements are based on an estimated 995,760 𝜈 𝜇 charged-current (CC) interactions in the scintillator medium of the NOvA Near Detector. The subdomain populated by 2-particle-2-hole (2p2h) reactions is identified by the cross section excess relative to predictions for 𝜈 𝜇 -nucleus scattering that are constrained by a data control sample. Models for 2-particle-2-hole processes are rated by 𝜒 2 comparisons of the predicted-versus-measured 𝜈 𝜇 CC inclusive cross section over the full phase space and in the restricted subdomain. Shortfalls are observed in neutrino generator predictions obtained using the theory-based València and SuSAv2 2p2h models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Towards controlled synthesis of 2D crystals by chemical vapor deposition (CVD)

We report the emergence of two-dimensional (2D) materials has captured the imagination of researchers since graphene was first exfoliated from graphite in 2004. Their exotic properties give rise to many exciting potential applications in advanced electronic, optoelectronic, energy and biomedical technologies. Scalable growth of high quality 2D materials is crucial for their adoption in technological applications the same way the arrival of high quality silicon single crystals was to the semiconductor industry. A huge amount of effort has been devoted to grow large-area, highly crystalline 2D crystals such as graphene and transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) through various methods. While CVD growth of wafer-scale monolayer graphene and TMDs has been demonstrated, considerable challenges still remain. In this perspective, we advocate for the focus on the crystal growth morphology as an underpinning for understanding, diagnosing and controlling the CVD process and environment for 2D material growth. Like snowflakes in nature, 2D crystals exhibit a rich variety of morphologies under different growth conditions. The mapping of crystal shapes in the growth parameter space “encodes” a wealth of information, the deciphering of which will lead to better understanding of the fundamental growth mechanism and materials properties. To this end, we envision a collective effort by the 2D materials community to establish the correlation between crystal shapes and the intrinsic thermodynamic and kinetic parameters for CVD reactions through integrated crystal growth experiment, database development and machine learning assisted predictive modeling, which will pave a robust path towards controlled synthesis of 2D materials and heterostructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Stochastic Modeling and Power Control of Time-Varying Wireless Communication Networks

Wireless networks are characterized by nodes mobility, which makes the propagation environment time-varying and subject to fading. As a consequence, the statistical characteristics of the received signal vary continuously, giving rise to a Doppler power spectral density (DPSD) that varies from one observation instant to the next. This paper is concerned with dynamical modeling of time-varying wireless fading channels, their estimation and parameter identification, and optimal power control from received signal measurement data. The wireless channel is characterized using a stochastic state-space form and derived by approximating the time-varying DPSD of the channel. The expected maximization and Kalman filter are employed to recursively identify and estimate the channel parameters and states, respectively, from online received signal strength measured data. Moreover, we investigate a centralized optimal power control algorithm based on predictable strategies and employing the estimated channel parameters and states. The proposed models together with the estimation and power control algorithms are tested using experimental measurement data and the results are presented.

Doppler Power Spectral Density↗
DOE OSTI2020

From pools to flow: The PROMISE framework for new insights on soil carbon cycling in a changing world

Soils represent the largest terrestrial reservoir of organic carbon, and the balance between soil organic carbon (SOC) formation and loss will drive powerful carbon-climate feedbacks over the coming century. To date, efforts to predict SOC dynamics have rested on pool-based models, which assume classes of SOC with internally homogenous physicochemical properties. However, emerging evidence suggests that soil carbon turnover is not dominantly controlled by the chemistry of carbon inputs, but rather by restrictions on microbial access to organic matter in the spatially heterogeneous soil environment. The dynamic processes that control the physicochemical protection of carbon translate poorly to pool-based SOC models; as a result, we are challenged to mechanistically predict how environmental change will impact movement of carbon between soils and the atmosphere. In this study, we propose a novel conceptual framework to explore controls on belowground carbon cycling: Probabilistic Representation of Organic Matter Interactions within the Soil Environment (PROMISE). In contrast to traditional model frameworks, PROMISE does not attempt to define carbon pools united by common thermodynamic or functional attributes. Rather, the PROMISE concept considers how SOC cycling rates are governed by the stochastic processes that influence the proximity between microbial decomposers and organic matter, with emphasis on their physical location in the soil matrix. We illustrate the applications of this framework with a new biogeochemical simulation model that traces the fate of individual carbon atoms as they interact with their environment, undergoing biochemical transformations and moving through the soil pore space. We also discuss how the PROMISE framework reshapes dialogue around issues related to SOC management in a changing world. We intend the PROMISE framework to spur the development of new hypotheses, analytical tools, and model structures across disciplines that will illuminate mechanistic controls on the flow of carbon between plant, soil, and atmospheric pools.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural net modeling of equilibria in NSTX-U

Neural networks (NNs) offer a path towards synthesizing and interpreting data on faster timescales than traditional physics-informed computational models. In this work we develop two NNs relevant to equilibrium and shape control modeling, which are part of a suite of tools being developed for the National Spherical Torus Experiment-Upgrade for fast prediction, optimization, and visualization of plasma scenarios. The networks include Eqnet, a free-boundary equilibrium solver trained on the EFIT01 (Equilibrium FITtting 01) reconstruction algorithm, and Pertnet, which is trained on the Gspert code and predicts the non-rigid plasma response, a nonlinear term that arises in shape control modeling. The NNs are trained with different combinations of inputs and outputs in order to offer flexibility in use cases. In particular, Eqnet can use magnetic diagnostics as inputs and act as an EFIT-like reconstruction algorithm, or, by using pressure and current profile information the NN can act as a forward Grad–Shafranov equilibrium solver. This forward-mode version is envisioned to be implemented in the suite of tools for simulation of plasma scenarios. The reconstruction-mode version gives some performance improvements compared to the online reconstruction code real-time EFIT, especially when vessel eddy currents are significant. Here, we report strong performance for all NNs indicating that the models could reliably be used within closed-loop simulations or other applications. Some limitations are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

A generic biokinetic model for noble gases with application to radon

The International Commission for Radiological Protection (ICRP) currently uses a dose conversion coefficient to calculate effective dose per unit exposure to radon and its progeny. The coefficient is derived by dividing the detriment associated with unit exposure to radon, as estimated from epidemiological studies, by the detriment per unit effective dose, as estimated mainly from atomic bomb survivor data and animal studies. In a recent statement the ICRP indicated that future guidance on exposure to radon and its progeny will be developed in the same way as guidance for any other radionuclide. That is, intake of radon and progeny will be limited on the basis of effective dose coefficients derived from biokinetic and dosimetric models. This paper proposes a biokinetic model for systemic (absorbed) radon for use in the calculation of dose coefficients for inhaled or ingested radon. The model is based largely on physical laws governing transfer of a non-reactive and soluble gas between materials. Model predictions are shown to be consistent with results of controlled studies of the fate of internally deposited radon in human subjects.

radon progeny effective dose biokinetic model↗
DOE OSTI2017

Low-Cloud Feedbacks from Cloud-Controlling Factors: A Review

Abstract The response to warming of tropical low-level clouds including both marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Climate model simulations of the response vary widely, reflecting the difficulty the models have in simulating these clouds. These inadequacies have led to alternative approaches to predict low-cloud feedbacks. Here, we review an observational approach that relies on the assumption that observed relationships between low clouds and the “cloud-controlling factors” of the large-scale environment are invariant across time-scales. With this assumption, and given predictions of how the cloud-controlling factors change with climate warming, one can predict low-cloud feedbacks without using any model simulation of low clouds. We discuss both fundamental and implementation issues with this approach and suggest steps that could reduce uncertainty in the predicted low-cloud feedback. Recent studies using this approach predict that the tropical low-cloud feedback is positive mainly due to the observation that reflection of solar radiation by low clouds decreases as temperature increases, holding all other cloud-controlling factors fixed. The positive feedback from temperature is partially offset by a negative feedback from the tendency for the inversion strength to increase in a warming world, with other cloud-controlling factors playing a smaller role. A consensus estimate from these studies for the contribution of tropical low clouds to the global mean cloud feedback is 0.25 ± 0.18 W m −2 K −1 (90% confidence interval), suggesting it is very unlikely that tropical low clouds reduce total global cloud feedback. Because the prediction of positive tropical low-cloud feedback with this approach is consistent with independent evidence from low-cloud feedback studies using high-resolution cloud models, progress is being made in reducing this key climate uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Early season prediction of within-field crop yield variability by assimilating CubeSat data into a crop model

Accurate early season predictions of crop yield at the within-field scale can be used to address a range of crop production, management, and precision agricultural challenges. While the remote sensing of within-field insights has been a research goal for many years, it is only recently that observations with the required spatio-temporal resolutions, together with efficient assimilation methods to integrate these into modeling frameworks, have become available to advance yield prediction efforts. Here we explore a yield prediction approach that combines daily high-resolution CubeSat imagery with the APSIM crop model. The approach employs APSIM to train a linear regression that relates simulated yield to simulated leaf area index (LAI). That relationship is then used to identify the optimal regression date at which the LAI provides the best prediction of yield: in this case, approximately 14 weeks prior to harvest. Instead of applying the regression on satellite imagery that is coincident, or closest to, the regression date, our method implements a particle filter that integrates CubeSat-based LAI into APSIM to provide end-of-season high-resolution (3 m) yield maps weeks before the optimal regression date. The approach is demonstrated on a rainfed maize field located in Nebraska, USA, where suitable collections of both imagery and in-situ data were available for assessment. The procedure does not require in-field data to calibrate the regression model, with results showing that even with a single assimilation step, it is possible to provide yield estimates with good accuracy up to 21 days before the optimal regression date. Yield spatial variability was reproduced reasonably well, with a strong correlation to independently collected measurements (R 2 = 0.73 and rRMSE = 12%). When the field averaged yield was compared, our approach reduced yield prediction error from 1 Mg/ha (control case based on a calibrated APSIM model), to 0.5 Mg/ha (using satellite imagery alone), and then to 0.2 Mg/ha (results with assimilation up to three weeks prior to the optimal regression date). Such a capacity to provide spatially explicit yield predictions early in the season has considerable potential to enhance digital agricultural goals and improve end-of-season yield predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technoeconomics of Particle-based CSP Featuring Falling Particle Receivers with and without Active Heliostat Control

This report documents the results and conclusions of a recent project to understand the technoeconomics of utility-scale, particle-based concentrating solar power (CSP) facilities leveraging unique operational strategies. This project included two primary objectives. The first project objective was to build confidence in the modeling approaches applied to falling particle receivers (FPRs) including the effect s of wind. The second project objective was to create the necessary modeling capability to adequately predict and maximize the annual performance of utility-scale, particle-based CSP plants under anticipated conditions with and without active heliostat control. Results of an extensive model validation study provided the strongest evidence to date for the modeling strategies typically applied to FPRs, albeit at smaller receiver scales. This modeling strategy was then applied in a parametric study of candidate utility-scale FPRs, including both free-falling and multistage FPR concepts, to develop reduced order models for predicting the receiver thermal efficiency under anticipated environmental and operating conditions. Multistage FPRs were found to significantly improve receiver performance at utility-scales. These reduced order models were then leveraged in a sophisticated technoeconomic analysis to optimize utility-scale , particle-based CSP plants considering the potential of active heliostat control. In summary, active heliostat control did not show significant performance benefits to future utility-scale CSP systems though some benefit may still be realized in FPR designs with wide acceptance angles and/or with lower concentration ratios. Using the latest FPR technologies available, the levelized-cost of electricity was quantified for particle-based CSP facilities with nominal powers ranging from 5 MW e up to 100 MW e with many viable designs having costs < 0.06 $/kWh and local minimums occurring between ~25–35 MW e .

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Stochastic Short-term High-resolution Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power Output

The increased penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy sources into electric grids has increased the need for accurate modeling and prediction of solar irradiance and power production. Existing modeling and prediction techniques focus on long-term low-resolution prediction over minutes to years. This paper examines the stochastic modeling and short-term high-resolution prediction of solar irradiance and PV power output. We propose a stochastic state-space model to characterize the behaviors of solar irradiance and PV power output. This prediction model is suitable for the development of optimal power controllers for PV sources. A filter-based expectation-maximization and Kalman filtering mechanism is employed to estimate the parameters and states in the state-space model. The mechanism results in a finite dimensional filter which only uses the first and second order statistics. The structure of the scheme contributes to a direct prediction of the solar irradiance and PV power output without any linearization process or simplifying assumptions of the signal’s model. This enables the system to accurately predict small as well as large fluctuations of the solar signals. The mechanism is recursive allowing the solar irradiance and PV power to be predicted online from measurements. The mechanism is tested using solar irradiance and PV power measurement data collected locally in our laboratory.

Olama, Mohammed M.↗