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An assessment of factors which determine the net heating rate of the middle atmosphere

The effects changes in stratospheric ozone concentrations have on photochemical models of the atmosphere are evaluated. The study was spurred by the appearance of excessive stratosphere heating above 40 km in radiative transfer computations. A 20 percent reduction in ozone in the 40-55 m altitude interval would offset the anomalous heating values. Comparisons were made between calculated heating rates and in-situ data that included ozone concentrations. Heating rates decreased 0.4 C/day when clouds were present at the 300 mb level, and increased by 0.3 C/day with clouds at the 80 mb level.

Rosenfield, J. E.↗

CERES ERBE-like Monthly Geographical Averages (ES-4) in HDF (CER_ES4_FM1+FM2+FM3+FM4_Edition1)

The ERBE-like Monthly Geographical Averages (ES-4) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The ES-4 is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. For each observed 2.5-degree spatial region, the daily average, the hourly average over the month, and the overall monthly average of shortwave and longwave fluxes at the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) from the CERES ES-9 product are spatially nested up from 2.5-degree regions to 5- and 10-degree regions, to 2.5-, 5-, and 10-degree zonal averages, and to global monthly averages. For each nested area, the albedo and net flux are given. For each region, the daily average flux is estimated from an algorithm that uses the available hourly data, scene identification data, and diurnal models. This algorithm is 'like' the algorithm used for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). The following CERES ES4 data sets are currently available: CER_ES4_FM1+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES4_PFM+FM1+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES4_PFM+FM1+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES4_PFM+FM1_Edition1 CER_ES4_PFM+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES4_TRMM-PFM_Edition1 CER_ES4_TRMM-PFM_Edition2 CER_ES4_Terra-FM1_Edition1 CER_ES4_Terra-FM2_Edition1 CER_ES4_FM1+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES4_Terra-FM1_Edition2 CER_ES4_Terra-FM2_Edition2 CER_ES4_Aqua-FM3_Edition1 CER_ES4_Aqua-FM4_Edition1 CER_ES4_FM1+FM2+FM3+FM4_Edition1 CER_ES4_Aqua-FM3_Edition2 CER_ES4_Aqua-FM4_Edition2 CER_ES4_FM1+FM3_Edition2 CER_ES4_FM1+FM4_Edition2 CER_ES4_PFM+FM1_Edition2 CER_ES4_PFM+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES4_Aqua-FM3_Edition1-CV CER_ES4_Aqua-FM4_Edition1-CV CER_ES4_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV CER_ES4_Terra-FM2_Edition1-CV. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2003-12-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=2.5 degree; Longitude_Resolution=2.5 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=250 km - < 500 km or approximately 2.5 degrees - < 5.0 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

LONGWAVE FLUX↗

Fusion hindrance effects in laser-induced non-neutral plasmas

Inertial confinement fusion hotspots and cluster Coulomb explosion plasmas may develop a positive net electric charge. The Coulomb barrier penetrability and the rate of nuclear fusion reactions at ultra-low energies (≲ 10 keV) are altered by such an environment. These effects are studied via the screening potential approach. Approximate analytical results are developed by evaluating the average screening potential for some scenarios of interest. It is found that fusion is hindered for reactions between thermal fuel nuclei, while an enhancement is expected for secondary and “beam-target” reactions. Depending on the plasma conditions, the variations can be relevant even for relatively small net charges (several % difference or more in the fusion rate for an average net charge per nucleus of 10 -5 proton charges).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Net-baryon multiplicity distribution consistent with lattice QCD

We determine a net-baryon multiplicity distribution which reproduces all cumulants measured so far by lattice QCD. We present the dependence on the volume and temperature of this distribution. We find that for temperatures and volumes encountered in heavy-ion reactions, the multiplicity distribution is very close to the Skellam distribution, making the experimental determination of it rather challenging. We further provide estimates for the statistics required to measure cumulants of the net-baryon and net-proton distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Atmospheric science on the Galileo mission

The atmospheric science goals of the Galileo mission, and instruments of the probe and orbiter are described. The current data available, and the goals of the Galileo mission concerning the chemical composition of the Jovian atmosphere; the thermal structure of the atmosphere; the nature of cloud particles and cloud layering; the radiative energy balance; atmospheric dynamics; and the upper atmosphere are discussed. The objectives and operations of the atmospheric structure instrument, neutral mass spectrometer, helium abundance interferometer, nephelometer, net flux radiometer, lightning and radio emission detector, solid state imaging system, NIR mapping spectrometer, photopolarimeter radiometer, and UV spectrometer are examined.

Hunten, D. M.↗

The seismic response of an aquifer to the propagation of an impact generated shock wave: A possible trigger of the Martian outflow channels?

Aquifer dilation from shock waves produced by the 8.4 magnitude Alaskan earthquake of 1964 led to water and sediment ejection from the ground up to 400 km away from the earthquake's epicenter. Groundwater disturbances were observed as far away as Perry, Florida (approximately 5500 km), where well water fluctuations with an amplitude of as much as 2.3 m were reported. The martian cratering record provides evidence that the planet has experienced numerous seismic events of a similar, and often much greater, magnitude. Given this fact, and the photogeologic evidence for abundant water in the early crust, the response of a basalt aquifer to the propagation of compressional waves (P-waves) produced by impacts in the 33-1000 km diameter size range were investigated. The resulting one-dimensional changes in effective stress and pore pressure were calculated - as a function of both distance and time - based on the following assumptions: (1) that all of the seismic energy radiated by an impact is transmitted as a single compressional wave; (2) that both the host rock and groundwater are compressible; and (3) that there is no net flow between the water-filled pores.

Leyva, Ivett A.↗

Tropical Warm Pool Surface Heat Budgets and Temperature: Contrasts Between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina

Seasonal and interannual variations of the net surface heating F(sub NET) and sea surface temperature tendency (T(sub s)/dt) in the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans are studied. The surface heat fluxes are derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite radiance measurements for the period October 1997-September 2000. It is found that the magnitude of solar heating is lager than that of evaporative cooling, but the spatial variation of the latter is significantly large than the former. As a result, the spatial variations of seasonal and interannual variability of F(sub NET), follow closely that of evaporative cooling. Seasonal variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt are significantly correlated, except for the equatorial western Pacific. The high correlation is primarily attributable to high correlation between seasonal cycles of solar heating and T(sub s)/dt. The change of F(sub NET) between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina is significantly larger in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean than tropical western Pacific. For the former region, the reduced evaporative cooling arising from weakened winds during the El Nino is generally associated with enhanced solar heating due to decreased cloudiness, and thus increases the interannual variability of F(sub NET). For the latter region, the reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds is generally associated with but exceeds the reduced solar heating arising from increased cloudiness, and vise versa. Thus the interannual variability of F(sub NET) is reduced due to this offsetting effect. Interannual variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt have very low correlation. This is most likely related to interannual variability of ocean dynamics, which includes the variations of solar radiation penetrating through oceanic mixed layer, upwelling of cold thermocline water, Indonesian throughflow for transporting heat from the Pacific to Indian Ocean, and interhemispheric transport in the Indian Ocean.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

CERES ERBE-like Monthly Geographical Averages (ES-4) in HDF (CER_ES4_Aqua-FM3_Edition1)

The ERBE-like Monthly Geographical Averages (ES-4) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The ES-4 is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. For each observed 2.5-degree spatial region, the daily average, the hourly average over the month, and the overall monthly average of shortwave and longwave fluxes at the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) from the CERES ES-9 product are spatially nested up from 2.5-degree regions to 5- and 10-degree regions, to 2.5-, 5-, and 10-degree zonal averages, and to global monthly averages. For each nested area, the albedo and net flux are given. For each region, the daily average flux is estimated from an algorithm that uses the available hourly data, scene identification data, and diurnal models. This algorithm is 'like' the algorithm used for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). The following CERES ES4 data sets are currently available: CER_ES4_FM1+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES4_PFM+FM1+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES4_PFM+FM1+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES4_PFM+FM1_Edition1 CER_ES4_PFM+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES4_TRMM-PFM_Edition1 CER_ES4_TRMM-PFM_Edition2 CER_ES4_Terra-FM1_Edition1 CER_ES4_Terra-FM2_Edition1 CER_ES4_FM1+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES4_Terra-FM1_Edition2 CER_ES4_Terra-FM2_Edition2 CER_ES4_Aqua-FM3_Edition1 CER_ES4_Aqua-FM4_Edition1 CER_ES4_FM1+FM2+FM3+FM4_Edition1 CER_ES4_Aqua-FM3_Edition2 CER_ES4_Aqua-FM4_Edition2 CER_ES4_FM1+FM3_Edition2 CER_ES4_FM1+FM4_Edition2 CER_ES4_PFM+FM1_Edition2 CER_ES4_PFM+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES4_Aqua-FM3_Edition1-CV CER_ES4_Aqua-FM4_Edition1-CV CER_ES4_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV CER_ES4_Terra-FM2_Edition1-CV. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2005-10-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=2.5 degree; Longitude_Resolution=2.5 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=250 km - < 500 km or approximately 2.5 degrees - < 5.0 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

SHORTWAVE FLUX↗

Microphysics of summer clouds in central West Antarctica simulated by the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)

Abstract. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) provided a highly detailed set of remote-sensing and surface observations to study Antarctic clouds and surface energy balance, which have received much less attention than for the Arctic due to greater logistical challenges. Limited prior Antarctic cloud observations have slowed the progress of numerical weather prediction in this region. The AWARE observations from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide during December 2015 and January 2016 are used to evaluate the operational forecasts of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) and new simulations with the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) 3.9.1. The Polar WRF 3.9.1 simulations are conducted with the WRF single-moment 5-class microphysics (WSM5C) used by the AMPS and with newer generation microphysics schemes. The AMPS simulates few liquid clouds during summer at the WAIS Divide, which is inconsistent with observations of frequent low-level liquid clouds. Polar WRF 3.9.1 simulations show that this result is a consequence of WSM5C. More advanced microphysics schemes simulate more cloud liquid water and produce stronger cloud radiative forcing, resulting in downward longwave and shortwave radiation at the surface more in agreement with observations. Similarly, increased cloud fraction is simulated with the more advanced microphysics schemes. All of the simulations, however, produce smaller net cloud fractions than observed. Ice water paths vary less between the simulations than liquid water paths. The colder and drier atmosphere driven by the Global Forecast System (GFS) initial and boundary conditions for AMPS forecasts produces lesser cloud amounts than the Polar WRF 3.9.1 simulations driven by ERA-Interim.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying contributions of ozone changes to global and arctic warming during the second half of the twentieth century

Ozone is the third most important greenhouse gas in driving global warming, mainly due to increased tropospheric ozone. About 50% of the growth of global tropospheric ozone since preindustrial time occurred during 1955–2005, with continued growth since then. Furthermore, this study quantifies the relative contributions of ozone changes during 1955–2005 to total observed global and Arctic climate changes by comparing CESM1 historical simulations with all anthropogenic and natural radiative forcings including realistic ozone changes, and with the same forcings except with constant ozone or well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHG). Results indicate that ozone changes during 1955–2005 have strongly enhanced the downwelling longwave flux and increased net shortwave flux at the surface, and thus significantly contributed about 0.15 °C of global mean surface warming, roughly 21%, 26% and 16% of the observed, all-forcing and WMGHG-driven trends, respectively. In the Arctic in the same period, corresponding ozone-driven warming was about 0.63 °C, roughly 48%, 40% and 25% of the same three trends. During 1979–2005, these ozone changes have markedly added about 0.25 × 10 6 km 2 to the decrease in the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), or roughly 25%, 48%, and 40% of the same three trends. Considering that the ozone-driven radiative forcing of about 0.22 (0.06) W·m –2 in 1955–2005 (1979–2005) was about 12% (6%) of the corresponding WMGHG forcing, ozone changes had contributed disproportionately to global and Arctic warming and Arctic sea ice decline during the second half of the twentieth century. Tropospheric ozone has shown relatively steady growth since 2006 and might have significantly contributed recent observed warming over the global and the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A molecular ground electronic state with an occupied 5g spinor—The superheavy (E125)F molecule

Fully relativistic calculations, primarily at the 4-component coupled-cluster singles and doubles with perturbative triples [CCSD(T)] level of theory with the Dirac–Coulomb (DC) Hamiltonian, have been carried out for the superheavy (E125)F molecule using large Gaussian basis sets. The electronic ground state is determined to have an [Og]8s 2 5g 1 6f 3 configuration on E125 with an Ω = 6 ground state and an 8p electron largely donated to F. A Mulliken population analysis indicates that the ground state is mainly ionic with a partial charge of +0.79 on E125 and a single sigma bond involving the F 2p and E125 8p spinors. The occupied g spinor is not involved in the bonding. With the largest basis set used in this work, the (0 K) dissociation energy was calculated at the DC-CCSD(T) level of theory to be 7.02 eV. Analogous calculations were also carried out for the E125 atom, both the neutral and its cation. The lowest energy electron configuration of E125 + , [Og]$8s$$^{2}_{1/2}$$5g$$^{1}_{7/2}$$6f$$^{3}_{5/2}$ with a J = 6 ground state, was found to be similar to that in (E125)F, while the neutral E125 atom has an [Og]$8s$$^{2}_{1/2}$$5g$$^{1}_{7/2}$$6f$$^{2}_{5/2}$$7d$$^{1}_{3/2}$$8p$$^{1}_{1/2}$ ground state electron configuration with a J = 17/2 ground state. The ionization energy (IE) of E125 is reported for the first time and is calculated to be 4.70 eV at the DC-CCSD(T) level of theory. Non-relativistic calculations were also carried out on the E125 atom and the (E125)F molecule. Here, the non-relativistic ground state of the E125 atom was calculated to have a 5g 5 ground state with an IE of just 3.4 eV. The net effect of relativity on (E125)F is to stabilize its bonding.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Charge conservation and higher moments of charge fluctuations

Higher moments of distributions of net charge and baryon number in heavy-ion collisions have been proposed as signals of fundamental QCD phase transitions. In order to better understand background processes for these observables, models are presented which enable one to gauge the effects of local charge conservation, decays of resonances and clusters, Bose symmetrization, and volume fluctuations. Monte Carlo methods for generating samplings of particles consistent with local charge conservation are presented and are followed by a review of simple analytic models involving a single type of charge with a constant experimental efficiency. The main model consists of thermal emission superimposed onto a simple parametrization of collective flow, known as a blast wave, with emission being consistent with individual canonical ensembles. The spatial extent of local charge conservation is parameterized by the size and extent over which charge is conserved. Here, the sensitivity of third- and fourth-order moments, skewness and kurtosis, to these parameters, and to beam energy and baryon density is explored. Comparisons with STAR data show that a significant part of the observed non-Poissonian fluctuations in net-proton fluctuations are explained by charge and baryon-number conservation, but that measurements of the STAR collaboration for fluctuations of net electric charge significantly differ from expectations of the models presented here.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Viscosities of the Baryon-Rich Quark-Gluon Plasma from Beam Energy Scan Data

Here, this work presents the first Bayesian inference study of the (3 + 1)D dynamics of relativistic heavy-ion collisions and quark-gluon plasma viscosities using an event-by-event (3 + 1)D hydrodynamics + hadronic transport theoretical framework and data from the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider Beam energy scan program. Robust constraints on initial state nuclear stopping and the baryon chemical potential-dependent shear viscosity of the produced quantum chromodynamic (QCD) matter are obtained. The specific bulk viscosity of the QCD matter is found to exhibit a preferred maximum around $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 19.6 GeV . This result allows for the alternative interpretation of a reduction (and/or increase) of the speed of sound relative to that of the employed lattice-QCD based equation of state for net baryon chemical potential μ B ~0.2(0.4) GeV .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Automation of PCXMC and ImPACT for NASA Astronaut Medical Imaging Dose and Risk Tracking

To automate astronaut organ and effective dose calculations from occupational X-ray and computed tomography (CT) examinations incorporating PCXMC and ImPACT tools and to estimate the associated lifetime cancer risk per the National Council on Radiation Protection & Measurements (NCRP) using MATLAB(R). Methods: NASA follows guidance from the NCRP on its operational radiation safety program for astronauts. NCRP Report 142 recommends that astronauts be informed of the cancer risks from reported exposures to ionizing radiation from medical imaging. MATLAB(R) code was written to retrieve exam parameters for medical imaging procedures from a NASA database, calculate associated dose and risk, and return results to the database, using the Microsoft .NET Framework. This code interfaces with the PCXMC executable and emulates the ImPACT Excel spreadsheet to calculate organ doses from X-rays and CTs, respectively, eliminating the need to utilize the PCXMC graphical user interface (except for a few special cases) and the ImPACT spreadsheet. Results: Using MATLAB(R) code to interface with PCXMC and replicate ImPACT dose calculation allowed for rapid evaluation of multiple medical imaging exams. The user inputs the exam parameter data into the database and runs the code. Based on the imaging modality and input parameters, the organ doses are calculated. Output files are created for record, and organ doses, effective dose, and cancer risks associated with each exam are written to the database. Annual and post-flight exposure reports, which are used by the flight surgeon to brief the astronaut, are generated from the database. Conclusions: Automating PCXMC and ImPACT for evaluation of NASA astronaut medical imaging radiation procedures allowed for a traceable and rapid method for tracking projected cancer risks associated with over 12,000 exposures. This code will be used to evaluate future medical radiation exposures, and can easily be modified to accommodate changes to the risk calculation procedure.

Bahadori, Amir↗

Toward a more realistic representation of surface albedo in NASA CERES-derived surface radiative fluxes

Accurate multidecadal radiative flux records are vital to understand Arctic amplification and constrain climate model uncertainties. Uncertainty in the NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES)-derived irradiances is larger over sea ice than any other surface type and comes from several sources. The year-long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic provides a rare opportunity to explore uncertainty in CERES-derived radiative fluxes. First, a systematic and statistically robust assessment of surface shortwave and longwave fluxes was conducted using in situ measurements from MOSAiC flux stations. The CERES Synoptic 1degree (SYN1deg) product overestimates the downwelling shortwave flux by +11.40 Wm –2 and underestimates the upwelling shortwave flux by –15.70 Wm –2 and downwelling longwave fluxes by –12.58 Wm –2 at the surface during summer. In addition, large differences are found in the upwelling longwave flux when the surface approaches the melting point (approximately 0°C). The biases in downwelling shortwave and longwave fluxes suggest that the atmosphere represented in CERES is too optically thin. The large negative bias in upwelling shortwave flux can be attributed in large part to lower surface albedo (–0.15) in satellite footprint relative to surface sensors. Additionally, the results show that the spectral surface albedo used in SYN1deg overestimates albedo in visible and mid-infrared bands. A series of radiative transfer model perturbation experiments are performed to quantify the factors contributing to the differences. The CERES-MOSAiC broadband albedo differences (approximately 20 Wm –2 ) explain a larger portion of the upwelling shortwave flux difference than the spectral albedo shape differences (approximately 3 Wm –2 ). In addition, the differences between perturbation experiments using hourly and monthly MOSAiC surface albedo suggest that approximately 25% of the sea ice surface albedo variability is explained by factors not correlated with daily sea ice concentration variability. Biases in net shortwave and longwave flux can be reduced to less than half by adjusting both albedo and cloud inputs toward observed values. The results indicate that improvements in the surface albedo and cloud data would substantially reduce the uncertainty in the Arctic surface radiation budget derived from CERES data products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Influence of Anomalous Biomass Emissions on ENSO in CESM2

Abstract The influence of biomass burning (BB) aerosols arising from wildfires and agricultural fires on the transient coupled evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is explored in Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). For both El Niño and La Niña, two 20-member ensembles are generated from initial states that are predisposed to evolve into ENSO events. For each ENSO phase, one ensemble is forced with the observed BB emissions during satellite-era ENSO events while the other is forced with a climatological annual cycle, with the responses to anomalous BB emissions estimated from interensemble differences. It is found that the regional responses to anomalous BB emissions occur mainly during boreal fall, which is also the time of the climatological seasonal maximum in emissions. Transient responses are identified in precipitation, clouds, and radiation in both the tropics and extratropics. At the onset of El Niño, these include increased precipitation in the northern branch of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and an enhancement of cloud albedo and amount across the Maritime Continent and eastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. Additional responses are identified through the course of El Niño and successive La Niña events, the net effect of which is to strengthen sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean during El Niño and warm the tropical Pacific Ocean during La Niña. These responses improve the simulation of ENSO power, diversity, and asymmetry in CESM2. Significance Statement Biomass burning emissions from both wildfires and agricultural fires during ENSO act as a climate feedback, as they are both driven by fire weather anomalies tied to ENSO and influence clouds, radiation, and precipitation on a global scale. While the largest biomass burning (BB) emissions emanate mainly from Indonesia, other regions also exhibit systematic responses. When simulated in CESM2, the emissions collectively impact the flows of energy across the tropical Pacific Ocean in a spatially and temporally complex fashion, with the net effect of improving CESM2’s simulation of ENSO events.

Fasullo, John T. [National Center for Atmospheric ↗