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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Extreme Storm Events in an Ensemble of High‐Resolution Projections

This study uses different downscaling techniques and reference observations to investigate the characteristics of extreme storm events over the conterminous United States in historical and a projected future scenario. While previous studies agree on the projected changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes, there is a lack of consensus regarding how their size will change in response to an increase in radiative forcing. Moreover, the influence of different downscaling techniques on their characteristics has not been thoroughly examined. This study employs an ensemble of high‐resolution projections derived from six CMIP6 GCMs, using dynamical, statistical and artificial intelligence based downscaling techniques and two reference observations. Overall, we find noticeable differences in the size, average depth, and total precipitation volume of these storms among the climate ensembles in the historical period. Despite these differences in the historical period, we find consistent future changes across various ensembles. We find a robust projected increase in storm size during Winter and Spring but a decrease in size during Summer in the East. Nevertheless, irrespective of changes in their size, extreme storms are projected to intensify across all the ensembles and seasons.

Rastogi, Deeksha [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗
DOE OSTI2021

Downscaling SSP-consistent global spatial urban land projections from 1/8-degree to 1-km resolution 2000–2100

Abstract Long-term, spatial urban land projections that simultaneously offer global coverage and local-scale empirical accuracy are rare. Recently a set of such projections was produced using data-science-based simulations and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). These projections update at decadal time intervals from 2000 to 2100 with a spatial resolution of 1/8 degree, while many socio-environmental studies customarily run their analysis and modelling at finer spatial resolutions, e.g. 1-km. Here we develop and validate an algorithm to downscale the 1/8-degree spatial urban land projections to the 1-km resolution. The algorithm uses an iterative process to allocate the decadal amount of urban land expansion originally projected for each 1/8-degree grid to its constituent 1-km grids. The results are a set of global maps showing urban land fractions at the 1-km resolution, updated at decadal intervals from 2000 to 2100, under five different urban land expansion scenarios consistent with the SSPs. The data can support studies of potential interactions between future urbanization and environmental changes across spatial and temporal scales.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hurricane-induced power outage risk under climate change is primarily driven by the uncertainty in projections of future hurricane frequency

Nine in ten major outages in the US have been caused by hurricanes. Long-term outage risk is a function of climate change-triggered shifts in hurricane frequency and intensity; yet projections of both remain highly uncertain. However, outage risk models do not account for the epistemic uncertainties in physics-based hurricane projections under climate change, largely due to the extreme computational complexity. Instead they use simple probabilistic assumptions to model such uncertainties. Here, we propose a transparent and efficient framework to, for the first time, bridge the physics-based hurricane projections and intricate outage risk models. We find that uncertainty in projections of the frequency of weaker storms explains over 95% of the uncertainty in outage projections; thus, reducing this uncertainty will greatly improve outage risk management. We also show that the expected annual fraction of affected customers exhibits large variances, warranting the adoption of robust resilience investment strategies and climate-informed regulatory frameworks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Charged particle velocity map image reconstruction with one-dimensional projections of spherical functions

Velocity map imaging (VMI) is used in mass spectrometry and in angle resolved photo-electron spectroscopy to determine the lateral momentum distributions of charged particles accelerated towards a detector. VM-images are composed of projected Newton spheres with a common centre. The 2D images are usually evaluated by a decomposition into base vectors each representing the 2D projection of a set of particles starting from a centre with a specific velocity distribution. We propose to evaluate 1D projections of VM-images in terms of 1D projections of spherical functions, instead. The proposed evaluation algorithm shows that all distribution information can be retrieved from an adequately chosen set of 1D projections, alleviating the numerical effort for the interpretation of VM-images considerably. The obtained results produce directly the coefficients of the involved spherical functions, making the reconstruction of sliced Newton spheres obsolete.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2015

Time-dependent projected Hartree-Fock

Projected Hartree-Fock (PHF) has recently emerged as an alternative approach to describing degenerate systems where static correlation is abundant, when the spin-symmetry is projected. Here, we derive a set of linearized time-dependent equations for PHF in order to be able to access excited states. The close connection of such linear-response time-dependent PHF (TDPHF) to the stability condition of a PHF wave function is discussed. Expanding this analysis also makes it possible to give analytical expressions for the projected coupling terms of Hamiltonian and overlaps between excited Slater determinants. TDPHF with spin-projection (TDSUHF) and its Tamm-Dancoff approximation are benchmarked for several electronically degenerate molecules including the dissociating H{sub 2}, F{sub 2} and O{sub 3} at equilibrium, and the distorted ethylene. It is shown that they give consistently better descriptions of excited states than does time-dependent HF (TDHF). Furthermore, we demonstrate that they offer not only singly but also doubly excited states, which naturally arise upon spin-projection. We also address the thermodynamic limit of TDSUHF, using non-interacting He gas. While TDPHF singly excited states tend to converge to those of HF with the size of the system due to the lack of size-extensivity of PHF, doubly excited states remain reasonable even at the thermodynamic limit. We find that the overall performance of our method is systematically better than the regular TDHF in many cases at the same computational scaling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drivers and energy justice implications of renewable energy project siting in the United States

The rapid expansion of solar and wind energy projects is raising questions of energy justice. Some scholars argue that solar and wind project development could burden under-resourced communities with negative impacts such as environmental harm and reduced access to resources. Conversely, other scholars argue that project development could be a boon to under-resourced communities, providing local economic and cultural benefits. Here, we analyze the drivers of solar and wind project siting patterns in the United States and explore their potential energy justice implications. We find that siting patterns are driven primarily by technoeconomic factors, especially resource quality and access to open undeveloped spaces. These technoeconomic factors channel projects into sparsely populated rural areas and, to a lesser extent, areas with lower income levels. Here, we avoid simplifying assumptions about the broad justice implications of these siting patterns and explore our results from multiple perspectives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2013

WIDE-FIELD WIDE-BAND INTERFEROMETRIC IMAGING: THE WB A-PROJECTION AND HYBRID ALGORITHMS

Variations of the antenna primary beam (PB) pattern as a function of time, frequency, and polarization form one of the dominant direction-dependent effects at most radio frequency bands. These gains may also vary from antenna to antenna. The A-Projection algorithm, published earlier, accounts for the effects of the narrow-band antenna PB in full polarization. In this paper, we present the wide-band A-Projection algorithm (WB A-Projection) to include the effects of wide bandwidth in the A-term itself and show that the resulting algorithm simultaneously corrects for the time, frequency, and polarization dependence of the PB. We discuss the combination of the WB A-Projection and the multi-term multi-frequency synthesis (MT-MFS) algorithm for simultaneous mapping of the sky brightness distribution and the spectral index distribution across a wide field of view. We also discuss the use of the narrow-band A-Projection algorithm in hybrid imaging schemes that account for the frequency dependence of the PB in the image domain.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Non-parametric projections of the net-income distribution for all U.S. states for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract Income distributions are a growing area of interest in the examination of equity impacts brought on by climate change and its responses. Such impacts are especially important at subnational levels, but projections of income distributions at these levels are scarce. Here, we project U.S. state-level income distributions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We apply a non-parametric approach, specifically a recently developed principal components algorithm to generate net income distributions for deciles across 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. We produce these projections to 2100 for three SSP scenarios in combination with varying projections of GDP per capita to represent a wide range of possible futures and uncertainties. In the generation of these scenarios, we also generated tax adjusted historical deciles by U.S. states, which we used for validating model performance. Our method thus produces income distributions by decile for each state, reflecting the variability in state income, population, and tax regimes. Our net income projections by decile can be used in both emissions- and impact-related research to understand distributional effects at various income levels and identify economically vulnerable populations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projections of wildfire risk and activities under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios

Wildfires are important ecosystem processes that have a significant impact on terrestrial vegetation, environment, and climate. This study investigates how future wildfire risk and activities could change under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios relative to pre-industrial levels using a modified McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDIn) and the CLM4.5-BGC land surface model. Sixteen Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 were employed to supply the variables of climate change under low, middle, and high greenhouse emission scenarios in the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. The ensemble means from the FFDIn and results from the CLM4.5-BGC with multiple forcings show that the dry areas in the southwestern US, Brazilian Highlands, and Arabian islands are projected to face higher wildfire risk with larger burned areas and more carbon emissions under a warmer climate. The Congo Basin and part of the Amazon could have a lower wildfire risk with smaller burned areas and less carbon emissions. The absolute changes in the projected FFDIn are small, although large increases are observed in boreal areas, particularly in the winter and spring. Burned area and carbon emissions are projected to increase in general in the boreal area but decrease in northeastern Asia. Compared to the 1.5 °C scenario, the wildfire risk and burned area levels are projected to increase under the 2.0 °C scenario except in the western Amazon. However, fire carbon emissions are projected to decrease more in tropical areas under the 2.0 °C scenario. The different change directions in eastern North America and eastern China produced by the FFDIn and CLM4.5-BGC suggest the potential effect of non-meteorological elements on fire activities.

1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming↗
DOE OSTI2015

Maximum projection designs for computer experiments

Space-filling properties are important in designing computer experiments. The traditional maximin and minimax distance designs only consider space-filling in the full dimensional space. This can result in poor projections onto lower dimensional spaces, which is undesirable when only a few factors are active. Restricting maximin distance design to the class of Latin hypercubes can improve one-dimensional projections, but cannot guarantee good space-filling properties in larger subspaces. We propose designs that maximize space-filling properties on projections to all subsets of factors. We call our designs maximum projection designs. As a result, our design criterion can be computed at a cost no more than a design criterion that ignores projection properties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Brightest cluster galaxies trace weak lensing mass bias and halo triaxiality in the three hundred project

Galaxy clusters have a triaxial matter distribution. The weak-lensing signal, an important part in cosmological studies, measures the projected mass of all matter along the line of sight, and therefore changes with the orientation of the cluster. Studies suggest that the shape of the brightest cluster galaxy (BCG) in the centre of the cluster traces the underlying halo shape, enabling a method to account for projection effects. We use 324 simulated clusters at four redshifts between 0.1 and 0.6 from ‘The Three Hundred Project’ to quantify correlations between the orientation and shape of the BCG and the halo. We find that haloes and their embedded BCGs are aligned, with an average ~20 degree angle between their major axes. The bias in weak lensing cluster mass estimates correlates with the orientation of both the halo and the BCG. Mimicking observations, we compute the projected shape of the BCG, as a measure of the BCG orientation, and find that it is most strongly correlated to the weak-lensing mass for relaxed clusters. We also test a 2D cluster relaxation proxy measured from BCG mass isocontours. The concentration of stellar mass in the projected BCG core compared to the total stellar mass provides an alternative proxy for the BCG orientation. We find that the concentration does not correlate to the weak-lensing mass bias, but does correlate with the true halo mass. Here, these results indicate that the BCG shape and orientation for large samples of relaxed clusters can provide information to improve weak-lensing mass estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observational constraints of an anisotropic boost due to the projection effects using redMaPPer clusters

Optical clusters identified from red-sequence galaxies suffer from projection effects, where interloper galaxies along the line of sight to a cluster are mistaken as genuine members of the cluster. In the previous study, we found that the projection effects cause the boost on the amplitudes of clustering and lensing on large scale compared to the expected amplitudes in the absence of any projection effects. These boosts are caused by preferential selections of filamentary structure aligned to the line of sight due to distance uncertainties in photometric surveys. We model the projection effects with two simple assumptions and develop a novel method to quantify the size of the boost using cluster-galaxy cross-correlation functions. We validate our method using mock cluster catalogues built from cosmological N-body simulations and find that we can obtain unbiased constraints on the boost parameter with our model. We then apply our analysis on the SDSS redMaPPer clusters and find that the size of the boost is roughly 20 per cent for all the richness bins except the cluster sample with the richness bin λ ∈ [30, 40]. This is the first study to constrain the boost parameter independent from cluster cosmology studies and provides a self-consistency test for the projection effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effect of selection – a tale of cluster mass measurement bias induced by correlation and projection

ABSTRACT Cosmology analyses using galaxy clusters by the Dark Energy Survey have recently uncovered an issue of a previously unknown selection effect affecting weak-lensing mass estimates. In this letter, we use the Illustris-TNG simulation to demonstrate that selecting on galaxy counts induces a selection effect because of projection and correlation between different observables. We compute the weak-lensing-like projected mass estimations of dark matter haloes and examine their projected subhalo counts. In the two-dimensional (2D) projected space, haloes that are measured as more massive than truth have higher subhalo counts. Thus, projection along the line of sight creates cluster observables that are correlated with cluster mass measurement deviations, which in turn creates a mass measurement bias when the clusters are selected by this correlated observable. We demonstrate that the bias is predicted in a forward model using the observable-mass measurement correlation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

The Genomes OnLine Database (GOLD) v.5: a metadata management system based on a four level (meta)genome project classification

The Genomes OnLine Database (GOLD; http://www.genomesonline.org) is a comprehensive online resource to catalog and monitor genetic studies worldwide. GOLD provides up-to-date status on complete and ongoing sequencing projects along with a broad array of curated metadata. Within this paper, we report version 5 (v.5) of the database. The newly designed database schema and web user interface supports several new features including the implementation of a four level (meta)genome project classification system and a simplified intuitive web interface to access reports and launch search tools. The database currently hosts information for about 19 200 studies, 56 000 Biosamples, 56 000 sequencing projects and 39 400 analysis projects. More than just a catalog of worldwide genome projects, GOLD is a manually curated, quality-controlled metadata warehouse. The problems encountered in integrating disparate and varying quality data into GOLD are briefly highlighted. Lastly, GOLD fully supports and follows the Genomic Standards Consortium (GSC) Minimum Information standards.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Finite and infinite matrix product states for Gutzwiller projected mean-field wave functions

Matrix product states (MPS) and “dressed” ground states of quadratic mean fields (e.g., Gutzwiller projected Slater determinants) are both important classes of variational wave functions. This latter class has played important roles in understanding superconductivity and quantum spin liquids. We present a method to obtain both the finite and infinite MPS (iMPS) representation of the ground state of an arbitrary fermionic quadratic mean-field Hamiltonian (which in the simplest case is a Slater determinant and in the most general case is a Pfaffian). We also show how to represent products of such states (e.g., determinants times Pfaffians). From this representation one can project to single occupancy and evaluate the entanglement spectra after Gutzwiller projection. We then obtain the MPS and iMPS representation of Gutzwiller projected mean-field states that arise from the variational slave-fermion approach to the S = 1 bilinear-biquadratic quantum spin chain. To accomplish this, we develop an approach to orthogonalize degenerate iMPS to find all the states in the degenerate ground-state manifold. We find the energies of the MPS and iMPS states match the variational energies closely, indicating the method is accurate and there is minimal loss due to truncation error. We then present an exploration of the entanglement spectra of projected slave-fermion states, exploring their qualitative features and finding good qualitative agreement with the respective exact ground-state spectra found from density matrix renormalization group.

1-dimensional spin chains↗
DOE OSTI2014

Symmetry-projected wave functions in quantum Monte Carlo calculations

Here, we consider symmetry-projected Hartree-Fock trial wave functions in constrained-path Monte Carlo (CPMC) calculations. Previous CPMC calculations have mostly employed Hartree-Fock (HF) trial wave functions, restricted or unrestricted. The symmetry-projected HF approach results in a hierarchy of wave functions with increasing quality: the more symmetries that are broken and restored in a self-consistent manner, the higher the quality of the trial wave function. This hierarchy is approximately maintained in CPMC calculations: the accuracy in the energy increases and the statistical variance decreases when further symmetries are broken and restored. Significant improvement is achieved in CPMC with the best symmetry-projected trial wave functions over those from simple HF. We analyze and quantify the behavior using the two-dimensional repulsive Hubbard model as an example. In the sign-problem-free region, where CPMC can be made exact but a constraint is deliberately imposed here, spin-projected wave functions remove the constraint bias. Away from half filling, spatial symmetry restoration in addition to that of the spin leads to highly accurate results from CPMC. Since the computational cost of symmetry-projected HF trial wave functions in CPMC can be made to scale algebraically with system size, this provides a potentially general approach for accurate calculations in many-fermion systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2015

Collaborative Computational Project for Electron cryo-Microscopy

The Collaborative Computational Project for Electron cryo-Microscopy (CCP-EM) is a new initiative for the structural biology community, following the success of CCP4 for macromolecular crystallography. Progress in supporting the users and developers of cryoEM software is reported. The Collaborative Computational Project for Electron cryo-Microscopy (CCP-EM) has recently been established. The aims of the project are threefold: to build a coherent cryoEM community which will provide support for individual scientists and will act as a focal point for liaising with other communities, to support practising scientists in their use of cryoEM software and finally to support software developers in producing and disseminating robust and user-friendly programs. The project is closely modelled on CCP4 for macromolecular crystallography, and areas of common interest such as model fitting, underlying software libraries and tools for building program packages are being exploited. Nevertheless, cryoEM includes a number of techniques covering a large range of resolutions and a distinct project is required. In this article, progress so far is reported and future plans are discussed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗