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DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot. The Environmental and Public Health Benefits of Achieving High Solar Penetrations in the United States

Compared with fossil fuel generators, photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) produce far lower lifecycle levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and harmful pollutants including fine particular matter (PM2.5), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), and nitrogen oxides (NO x ). In this report, we monetize the emission reductions from achieving the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot deployment goals: 14% of U.S. electricity demand met by solar in 2030 and 27% in 2050. We estimate that achieving these goals could reduce cumulative power-sector GHG emissions by 10% between 2015 and 2050, resulting in savings of $238-$252 billion. This is equivalent to 2.0-2.2 cents per kilowatt-hour of solar installed (cents/kWh-solar). Similarly, realizing these levels of solar deployment could reduce cumulative power-sector emissions of PM2.5 by 8%, SO 2 by 9%, and NOx by 11% between 2015 and 2050. This could produce $167 billion in savings from lower future health and environmental damages, or 1.4 cents/kWh-solar--while also preventing 25,000-59,000 premature deaths. To put this in perspective, this estimated combined benefit of 3.5 cents/kWh-solar due to SunShot-level solar deployment is approximately equal to the additional levelized cost of electricity reduction needed to make unsubsidized utility-scale solar competitive with conventional generators today. In addition, the analysis shows that achieving the SunShot goals could save 4% of total power-sector water withdrawals and 9% of total power-sector water consumption over the 2015-2050 period--a particularly important consideration for arid states where substantial solar will be deployed. These results have potential implications for policy innovation and the economic competitiveness of solar and other generation technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot. Emerging Issues and Challenges in Integrating High Levels of Solar into the Electrical Generation and Transmission System

This report examines how the bulk power system may need to evolve to accommodate the increased photovoltaic (PV) penetration resulting from achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot cost targets. The variable and uncertain nature of PV-generated electricity presents grid-integration challenges. For example, the changing net load associated with high midday PV generation and low electricity demand can create 'overgeneration' that requires curtailment of PV output and reduces PV's value and cost-competitiveness. Accommodating the changes in net load resulting from increased variable generation requires enhancements to a power system's 'flexibility,' or ability to balance supply and demand over multiple time scales through options including changes in system operation, flexible generation, reserves from solar, demand response, energy storage, and enhanced transmission and regional coordination. For utility-scale PV with a baseline SunShot levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh, increasing the annual energy demand met by solar energy from 10% to 20% would increase the marginal LCOE of PV from 6 cents/kWh to almost 11 cents/kWh in a California grid system with limited flexibility. However, increasing system flexibility could minimize solar curtailment and keep PV cost-competitive at penetrations at least as high as 25%. In the longer term, energy storage technologies--such as concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage--could facilitate the cost-effective integration of even higher PV penetration. Efficient deployment of the grid-flexibility options needed to maintain solar's value will require various innovations, from the development of communication, control, and energy storage technologies to the implementation of new market rules and operating procedures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot. Emerging Issues and Challenges in Integrating Solar with the Distribution System

This report analyzes distribution-integration challenges, solutions, and research needs in the context of distributed generation from PV (DGPV) deployment to date and the much higher levels of deployment expected with achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot targets. Recent analyses have improved estimates of the DGPV hosting capacities of distribution systems. This report uses these results to statistically estimate the minimum DGPV hosting capacity for the contiguous United States using traditional inverters of approximately 170 GW without distribution system modifications. This hosting capacity roughly doubles if advanced inverters are used to manage local voltage and additional minor, low-cost changes could further increase these levels substantially. Key to achieving these deployment levels at minimum cost is siting DGPV based on local hosting capacities, suggesting opportunities for regulatory, incentive, and interconnection innovation. Already, pre-computed hosting capacity is beginning to expedite DGPV interconnection requests and installations in select regions; however, realizing SunShot-scale deployment will require further improvements to DGPV interconnection processes, standards and codes, and compensation mechanisms so they embrace the contributions of DGPV to system-wide operations. SunShot-scale DGPV deployment will also require unprecedented coordination of the distribution and transmission systems. This includes harnessing DGPV's ability to relieve congestion and reduce system losses by generating closer to loads; minimizing system operating costs and reserve deployments through improved DGPV visibility; developing communication and control architectures that incorporate DGPV into system operations; providing frequency response, transient stability, and synthesized inertia with DGPV in the event of large-scale system disturbances; and potentially managing reactive power requirements due to large-scale deployment of advanced inverter functions. Finally, additional local and system-level value could be provided by integrating DGPV with energy storage and 'virtual storage,' which exploits improved management of electric vehicle charging, building energy systems, and other large loads. Together, continued innovation across this rich distribution landscape can enable the very-high deployment levels envisioned by SunShot.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot: Emerging Opportunities and Challenges in Financing Solar

This report analyzes solar financing strategies and their role in achieving the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot goals. Financing is critical to solar deployment, because the costs of solar technologies are paid up front, while their benefits are realized over decades. Solar financing has been shaped by government solar incentives, particularly federal tax incentives, which have spawned complex tax-equity structures that monetize tax benefits for project sponsors who otherwise could not use them efficiently. Although these structures have helped expand solar deployment, they are relatively costly and inefficient. This has spurred solar stakeholders to develop lower-cost financing solutions such as securitization of solar project portfolios, solar-specific loan products, and methods for incorporating residential solar's value into home values. To move solar further toward an unsubsidized SunShot future, additional financial innovation must occur. Development of a larger, more mature U.S. solar industry will likely increase financial transparency and investor confidence, which in turn will enable simpler, lower-cost financing methods. Utility-scale solar might be financed more like conventional generation assets are today, non-residential solar might be financed more like a new roof, and residential solar might be financed more like an expensive appliance. Assuming a constant, SunShot-level installed photovoltaic (PV) system price, such financing innovations could reduce PV's levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by an estimated 25%-50% compared with historical financing approaches. These results suggest that financing can adapt to changing conditions and might ease the transition away from a reliance on tax incentives while driving solar's LCOE toward the SunShot goals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot. The Role of Advancements in Solar Photovoltaic Efficiency, Reliability, and Costs

This report examines the remaining challenges to achieving the competitive photovoltaic (PV) costs and large-scale deployment envisioned under the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative. Solar-energy cost reductions can be realized through lower PV module and balance-of-system (BOS) costs as well as improved system efficiency and reliability. Numerous combinations of PV improvements could help achieve the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) goals because of the tradeoffs among key metrics like module price, efficiency, and degradation rate as well as system price and lifetime. Using LCOE modeling based on bottom-up cost analysis, two specific pathways are mapped to exemplify the many possible approaches to module cost reductions of 29%-38% between 2015 and 2020. BOS hardware and soft cost reductions, ranging from 54%-77% of total cost reductions, are also modeled. The residential sector's high supply-chain costs, labor requirements, and customer-acquisition costs give it the greatest BOS cost-reduction opportunities, followed by the commercial sector, although opportunities are available to the utility-scale sector as well. Finally, a future scenario is considered in which very high PV penetration requires additional costs to facilitate grid integration and increased power-system flexibility--which might necessitate even lower solar LCOEs. The analysis of a pathway to 3-5 cents/kWh PV systems underscores the importance of combining robust improvements in PV module and BOS costs as well as PV system efficiency and reliability if such aggressive long-term targets are to be achieved.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot. Emerging Opportunities and Challenges in U.S. Solar Manufacturing

This report provides insights into photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) manufacturing in the context of the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative. Although global PV price reductions and deployment have been strong recently, PV manufacturing faces challenges. Slowing rates of manufacturing cost reductions, combined with the relatively low price of incumbent electricity generating sources in most large global PV markets, may constrain profit opportunities for firms and poses a potential challenge to the sustainable operation and growth of the global PV manufacturing base. In the United States, manufacturers also face a factors-of-production cost disadvantage compared with competing nations. However, the United States is one of the world's most competitive and innovative countries as well as one of the best locations for PV manufacturing. In conjunction with strong projected PV demand in the United States and across the Americas, these advantages could increase the share of PV technologies produced by U.S. manufacturers as the importance of innovation-driven PV cost reductions increases. Compared with PV, CSP systems are much more complex and require a much larger minimum effective scale, resulting in much higher total CAPEX requirements for system construction, lengthier development cycles, and ultimately higher costs of energy produced. The global lack of consistent CSP project development creates challenges for companies that manufacture specialty CSP components, and the potential lack of a near-term U.S. market could hinder domestic CSP manufacturers. However, global and U.S. CSP deployment is expected to expand beyond 2020, and U.S. CSP manufacturers could benefit from U.S. innovation advantages similar to those associated with PV. Expansion of PV and CSP manufacturing also presents U.S. job-growth opportunities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot. Utility Regulatory and Business Model Reforms for Addressing the Financial Impacts of Distributed Solar on Utilities

Net-energy metering (NEM) has helped drive the rapid growth of distributed PV (DPV) but has raised concerns about electricity cost shifts, utility financial losses, and inefficient resource allocation. These concerns have motivated real and proposed reforms to utility regulatory and business models. This report explores the challenges and opportunities associated with such reforms in the context of the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative. Most of the reforms to date address NEM concerns by reducing the benefits provided to DPV customers and thus constraining DPV deployment. Eliminating NEM nationwide, by compensating exports of PV electricity at wholesale rather than retail rates, could cut cumulative DPV deployment by 20% in 2050 compared with a continuation of current policies. This would slow the PV cost reductions that arise from larger scale and market certainty. It could also thwart achievement of the SunShot deployment goals even if the initiative's cost targets are achieved. This undesirable prospect is stimulating the development of alternative reform strategies that address concerns about distributed PV compensation without inordinately harming PV economics and growth. These alternatives fall into the categories of facilitating higher-value DPV deployment, broadening customer access to solar, and aligning utility profits and earnings with DPV. Specific strategies include utility ownership and financing of DPV, community solar, distribution network operators, services-driven utilities, performance-based incentives, enhanced utility system planning, pricing structures that incentivize high-value DPV configurations, and decoupling and other ratemaking reforms that reduce regulatory lag. These approaches represent near- and long-term solutions for preserving the legacy of the SunShot Initiative.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot. Advancing Concentrating Solar Power Technology, Performance, and Dispatchability

This report examines the remaining challenges to achieving the competitive concentrating solar power (CSP) costs and large-scale deployment envisioned under the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative. Although CSP costs continue to decline toward SunShot targets, CSP acceptance and deployment have been hindered by inexpensive photovoltaics (PV). However, a recent analysis found that thermal energy storage (TES) could increase CSP's value--based on combined operational and capacity benefits--by up to 6 cents/kWh compared to variable-generation PV, under a 40% renewable portfolio standard in California. Thus, the high grid value of CSP-TES must be considered when evaluating renewable energy options. An assessment of net system cost accounts for the difference between the costs of adding new generation and the avoided cost from displacing other resources providing the same level of energy and reliability. The net system costs of several CSP configurations are compared with the net system costs of conventional natural-gas-fired combustion-turbine (CT) and combined-cycle plants. At today's low natural gas prices and carbon emission costs, the economics suggest a peaking configuration for CSP. However, with high natural gas prices and emission costs, each of the CSP configurations compares favorably against the conventional alternatives, and systems with intermediate to high capacity factors become the preferred alternatives. Another analysis compares net system costs for three configurations of CSP versus PV with batteries and PV with CTs. Under current technology costs, the least-expensive option is a combination of PV and CTs. However, under future cost assumptions, the optimal configuration of CSP becomes the most cost-effective option.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot - Utility Regulatory Business Model Reforms forAddressing the Financial Impacts of Distributed Solar on Utilities

Net-energy metering (NEM) with volumetric retail electricity pricing has enabled rapid proliferation of distributed photovoltaics (DPV) in the United States. However, this transformation is raising concerns about the potential for higher electricity rates and cost-shifting to non-solar customers, reduced utility shareholder profitability, reduced utility earnings opportunities, and inefficient resource allocation. Although DPV deployment in most utility territories remains too low to produce significant impacts, these concerns have motivated real and proposed reforms to utility regulatory and business models, with profound implications for future DPV deployment. This report explores the challenges and opportunities associated with such reforms in the context of the U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot Initiative. As such, the report focuses on a subset of a broader range of reforms underway in the electric utility sector. Drawing on original analysis and existing literature, we analyze the significance of DPV’s financial impacts on utilities and non-solar ratepayers under current NEM rules and rate designs, the projected effects of proposed NEM and rate reforms on DPV deployment, and alternative reforms that could address utility and ratepayer concerns while supporting continued DPV growth. We categorize reforms into one or more of four conceptual strategies. Understanding how specific reforms map onto these general strategies can help decision makers identify and prioritize options for addressing specific DPV concerns that balance stakeholder interests.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot - Advancing Concentrating Solar Power Technology, Performance, and Dispatchability

Energy storage will help enable CSP compete by adding flexibility value to a high-variable-generation (solar plus wind) power system (see Mehos et al. 2016). Compared with PV, CSP systems are more complex to develop, design, construct, and operate, and they require a much larger minimum effective scale—typically at least 50 MW, compared with PV systems that can be as small as a few kilowatts. In recent years, PV’s greater modularity and lower LCOE have made it more attractive to many solar project developers, and some large projects that were originally planned for CSP have switched to PV. However, the ability of CSP to use thermal energy storage—and thus provide continuous power for long periods when the sun is not shining—could give CSP a vital role in evolving electricity systems. Because CSP with storage can store energy when net demand is low and release that energy when demand is high, it increases the electricity system’s ability to balance supply and demand over multiple time scales. Such flexibility becomes increasingly important as more variable-generation renewable energy is added to the system. For example, one analysis suggests that, under a 40% renewable portfolio standard in California, CSP with storage could provide more than twice as much value to the electricity system as variable-generation PV. For this reason, enhanced thermal energy storage is a critical component of the SunShot Initiative’s 2020 CSP technology-improvement roadmap.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot - The Environmental and Public Health Benefits of Achieving High Penetrations of Solar Energy in the United States

Monetizing the environmental health benefits of solar could add ~3.5¢/kWh to the value of solar energy (see Wiser et al. 2016). The monetary impacts due to environmental degradation and public health impacts seem far removed from the apparent “sticker price” of electricity. Yet quantifying these impacts is essential to understanding the true costs and benefits of solar and conventional generating technologies. Compared with fossil fuel generators, PV and CSP produce far lower lifecycle levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and harmful pollutants including fine particular matter (PM2.5), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Achieving the SunShot-level solar deployment targets—14% of U.S. electricity demand met by solar in 2030 and 27% in 2050—could reduce cumulative power-sector GHG emissions by 10% between 2015 and 2050, resulting in savings of $238–$252 billion. This is equivalent to 2.0–2.2 cents per kilowatt-hour of solar installed (¢/kWh-solar). Similarly, realizing these levels of solar deployment could reduce cumulative power-sector emissions of PM2.5 by 8%, SO2 by 9%, and NOx by 11% between 2015 and 2050. This could produce $167 billion in savings from lower future health and environmental damages, or 1.4¢/kWh-solar—while also preventing 25,000–59,000 premature deaths. To put this in perspective, the estimated 3.5¢/kWh-solar in benefits due to SunShot-level solar deployment is approximately equal to the additional LCOE reduction needed to make unsubsidized utility-scale solar competitive with conventional generators today. In addition, water savings from achieving the SunShot goals, could result in the 2015–2050 cumulative savings of 4% of total power-sector withdrawals and 9% of total power-sector consumption—a particularly important consideration for arid states where substantial solar will be deployed. Improving public health and the environment is but one aspect of solar’s many costs and benefits. Clearly, however, the assignment of value

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot - Emerging Opportunities and Challenges in Financing Solar

Financial innovations—independent of technology-cost improvements—could cut the cost of solar energy to customers and businesses by 30%–60% (see Feldman and Bolinger 2016). Financing is critical to solar deployment, because the costs of solar technologies are paid up front, while their benefits are realized over decades. Solar financing has been shaped by the government incentives designed to accelerate solar deployment. This is particularly true for federal tax incentives, which have spawned complex tax-equity structures that monetize tax benefits for project sponsors who otherwise could not use them efficiently. Although these structures have helped expand solar deployment, they are relatively costly and inefficient. This has spurred solar stakeholders to develop lower-cost financing solutions such as securitization of solar project portfolios, solar-specific loan products, and methods for incorporating residential PV’s value into home values. To move solar further toward an unsubsidized SunShot future, additional financial innovation must occur. Development of a larger, more mature U.S. solar industry will likely increase financial transparency and investor confidence, which in turn will enable simpler, lower-cost financing methods. Utility-scale solar might be financed more like conventional generation assets are today, non-residential solar might be financed more like a new roof, and residential solar might be financed more like an expensive appliance. Assuming a constant, SunShot-level installed PV system price, such financing innovations could reduce PV’s LCOE by an estimated 30%–60% (depending on the sector) compared with historical financing approaches.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot - The Role of Advancements in Solar Photovoltaic Efficiency, Reliability, and Costs

Although tremendous progress has been made in reducing the cost of PV systems, additional LCOE reductions of 40%–50% between 2015 and 2020 will be required to reach the SunShot Initiative’s targets (see Woodhouse et al. 2016). Understanding the tradeoffs between installed prices and other PV system characteristics—such as module efficiency, module degradation rate, and system lifetime—are vital. For example, with 29%-efficient modules and high reliability (a 50-year lifetime and a 0.2%/year module degradation rate), a residential PV system could achieve the SunShot LCOE goal with modules priced at almost $1.20/W. But change the lifetime to 10 years and the degradation rate to 2%/year, and the system would need those very high-efficiency modules at zero cost to achieve the same LCOE. Although these examples are extreme, they serve to illustrate the wide range of technological combinations that could help drive PV toward the LCOE goals. SunShot’s PV roadmaps illustrate specific potential pathways to the target cost reductions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot - Emerging Issues and Challenges in Integrating High Levels of Solar into the Electrical Generation and Transmission System

Increasing the use of grid-flexibility options (improved grid management, demand response, and energy storage) could enable 25% or higher penetration of PV at low costs (see Denholm et al. 2016). Considering the large-scale integration of solar into electric-power systems complicates the calculation of the value of solar. In fact a comprehensive examination reveals that the value of solar technologies—or any other power-system technology or operating strategy—can only be understood in the context of the generation system as a whole. This is well illustrated by analysis of curtailment at high PV penetrations within the bulk power and transmission systems. As the deployment of PV increases, it is possible that during some sunny midday periods due to limited flexibility of conventional generators, system operators would need to reduce (curtail) PV output in order to maintain the crucial balance between electric supply and demand. As a result, PV’s value and cost competitiveness would degrade. For example, for utility-scale PV with a baseline SunShot LCOE of 6¢/kWh, increasing the annual energy demand met by solar energy from 10% to 20% would increase the marginal LCOE of PV from 6¢/kWh to almost 11¢/kWh in a California grid system with limited flexibility. However, this loss of value could be stemmed by increasing system flexibility via enhanced control of variable-generation resources, added energy storage, and the ability to motivate more electricity consumers to shift consumption to lower-demand periods. The combination of these measures would minimize solar curtailment and keep PV cost-competitive at penetrations at least as high as 25%. Efficient deployment of the grid-flexibility options needed to maintain solar’s value will require various innovations, from the development of communication, control, and energy storage technologies to the implementation of new market rules and operating procedures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Nuclear Safeguards as a Career Path

Presenting along with Introductory Nonproliferation Teaching and Learning Module to provide an intro to working at LANL at Utah State on February 21, 2017.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot - Emerging Issues and Challenges with Integrating High Levels of Solar into the Distribution System

Wide use of advanced inverters could double the electricity-distribution system’s hosting capacity for distributed PV at low costs—from about 170 GW to 350 GW (see Palmintier et al. 2016). At the distribution system level, increased variable generation due to high penetrations of distributed PV (typically rooftop and smaller ground-mounted systems) could challenge the management of distribution voltage, potentially increase wear and tear on electromechanical utility equipment, and complicate the configuration of circuit-breakers and other protection systems—all of which could increase costs, limit further PV deployment, or both. However, improved analysis of distribution system hosting capacity—the amount of distributed PV that can be interconnected without changing the existing infrastructure or prematurely wearing out equipment—has overturned previous rule-of-thumb assumptions such as the idea that distributed PV penetrations higher than 15% require detailed impact studies. For example, new analysis suggests that the hosting capacity for distributed PV could rise from approximately 170 GW using traditional inverters to about 350 GW with the use of advanced inverters for voltage management, and it could be even higher using accessible and low-cost strategies such as careful siting of PV systems within a distribution feeder and additional minor changes in distribution operations. Also critical to facilitating distributed PV deployment is the improvement of interconnection processes, associated standards and codes, and compensation mechanisms so they embrace PV’s contributions to system-wide operations. Ultimately SunShot-level PV deployment will require unprecedented coordination of the historically separate distribution and transmission systems along with incorporation of energy storage and “virtual storage,” which exploits improved management of electric vehicle charging, building energy systems, and other large loads. Additional analysis and innovation are neede

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

DOE Big Idea Summit III: Solving the Information Technology Challenge Beyond Moore's Law: A New Path to Scaling

This report captures the initial conclusions of the DOE seven National Lab team collaborating on the “Solving the Information Technology Energy Challenge Beyond Moore’s Law” initiative from the DOE Big Idea Summit III held in April of 2016. The seven Labs held a workshop in Albuquerque, NM in late July 2016 and gathered 40 researchers into 5 working groups: 4 groups spanning the levels of the co-design framework shown below, and a 5th working group focused on extending and advancing manufacturing approaches and coupling their constraints to all of the framework levels. These working groups have identified unique capabilities within the Labs to support the key challenges of this Beyond Moore’s Law Computing (BMC) vision, as well as example first steps and potential roadmaps for technology development.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot: Emerging Issues and Challenges in Integrating Solar with the Distribution System.

The U.S. Department of Energy launched the SunShot Initiative in 2011 with the goal of making solar electricity cost-competitive with conventionally generated electricity by 2020. At the time this meant reducing photovoltaic and concentrating solar power prices by approximately 75%— relative to 2010 costs—across the residential, commercial, and utility-scale sectors. To examine the implications of this ambitious goal, the Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) published the SunShot Vision Study in 2012. The study projected that achieving the SunShot price-reduction targets could result in solar meeting roughly 14% of U.S. electricity demand by 2030 and 27% by 2050—while reducing fossil fuel use, cutting emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants, creating solar-related jobs, and lowering consumer electricity bills.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗