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At least 883 records · Page 49

Using Simulation to Evaluate the Performance of Resilience Strategies and Process Failures

Fault-tolerance has been identified as a major challenge for future extreme-scale systems. Current predictions suggest that, as systems grow in size, failures will occur more frequently. Because increases in failure frequency reduce the performance and scalability of these systems, significant effort has been devoted to developing and refining resilience mechanisms to mitigate the impact of failures. However, effective evaluation of these mechanisms has been challenging. Current systems are smaller and have significantly different architectural features (e.g., interconnect, persistent storage) than we expect to see in next-generation systems. To overcome these challenges, we propose the use of simulation. Simulation has been shown to be an effective tool for investigating performance characteristics of applications on future systems. In this work, we: identify the set of system characteristics that are necessary for accurate performance prediction of resilience mechanisms for HPC systems and applications; demonstrate how these system characteristics can be incorporated into an existing large-scale simulator; and evaluate the predictive performance of our modified simulator. We also describe how we were able to optimize the simulator for large temporal and spatial scales-allowing the simulator to run 4x faster and use over 100x less memory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before final conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure; (4) Vulnerability assessments can be connected to efforts to improve facility resilience to motivate participation; and (5) Efficient, scalable methods for vulnerability assessment can be developed, but additional case studies and evaluation are required.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating Proposed Investments in Power System Reliability and Resilience: Preliminary Results from Interviews with Public Utility Commission Staff

Policymakers and regulatory agencies are expressing renewed interest in the reliability and resilience of the U.S. electric power system in large part due to growing recognition of the challenges posed by climate change, extreme weather events, and other emerging threats. Unfortunately, there has been little or no consolidated information in the public domain describing how public utility/service commission (PUC) staff evaluate the economics of proposed investments in the resilience of the power system. Having more consolidated information would give policymakers a better understanding of how different state regulatory entities across the U.S. make economic decisions pertaining to reliability/resiliency. To help address this, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) was tasked by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis (EPSA) to conduct an initial set of interviews with PUC staff to learn more about how proposed utility investments in reliability/resilience are being evaluated from an economics perspective. LBNL conducted structured interviews in late May-early June 2016 with staff from the following PUCs: Washington D.C. (DCPSC), Florida (FPSC), and California (CPUC).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Front-Line Resilience Perspectives: The Electric Grid

This report seeks to summarize how states and local utility companies are approaching all-hazards resilience in planning, construction, operations, and maintenance of the electric system, as well as challenges faced when addressing all-hazards resilience.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Material Resilience in Harsh Service Conditions

Resilience describes the attributes of a material that allow it to withstand or resist detrimental environmental effects degrading properties and performance. In service, materials may experience harsh or extreme conditions, but even modest thermal or load conditions experienced over a long period can degrade performance. Thus, the National Nuclear Security Administration mission requires predictive understanding of materials performance in harsh and extreme conditions over long periods. This is particularly true for applications in which replacement is impractical, impossible, or costly. This area of leadership addresses the evolution of material properties in environments that include static and dynamic stress, radiation, and chemical or thermal extremes. A particular focus is on situations when environments coexist or for which collection of experimental data is challenging or impossible. The capability to predict and control the nature and evolution of properties to allow designing resilience is a crucial aspect of mission success in national nuclear, global, and energy security.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Complex Systems Approach to More Resilient Multi-Layered Security Systems

In July 2012, protestors cut through security fences and gained access to the Y-12 National Security Complex. This was believed to be a highly reliable, multi-layered security system. This report documents the results of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project that created a consistent, robust mathematical framework using complex systems analysis algorithms and techniques to better understand the emergent behavior, vulnerabilities and resiliency of multi-layered security systems subject to budget constraints and competing security priorities. Because there are several dimensions to security system performance and a range of attacks that might occur, the framework is multi-objective for a performance frontier to be estimated. This research explicitly uses probability of intruder interruption given detection (P I ) as the primary resilience metric. We demonstrate the utility of this framework with both notional as well as real-world examples of Physical Protection Systems (PPSs) and validate using a well-established force-on-force simulation tool, Umbra.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Improving Grid Resilience through Informed Decision-making (IGRID)

The transformation of the distribution grid from a centralized to decentralized architecture, with bi-directional power and data flows, is made possible by a surge in network intelligence and grid automation. While changes are largely beneficial, the interface between grid operator and automated technologies is not well understood, nor are the benefits and risks of automation. Quantifying and understanding the latter is an important facet of grid resilience that needs to be fully investigated. The work described in this document represents the first empirical study aimed at identifying and mitigating the vulnerabilities posed by automation for a grid that for the foreseeable future will remain a human-in-the-loop critical infrastructure. Our scenario-based methodology enabled us to conduct a series of experimental studies to identify causal relationships between grid-operator performance and automated technologies and to collect measurements of human performance as a function of automation. Our findings, though preliminary, suggest there are predictive patterns in the interplay between human operators and automation, patterns that can inform the rollout of distribution automation and the hiring and training of operators, and contribute in multiple and significant ways to the field of grid resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Regional Resiliency Assessment Program Dependency Analysis Framework

The purpose of this report is to develop a common understanding and consistent analytic approach for evaluating critical infrastructure dependencies and interdependencies that will inform the programs of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Protective Security Coordination Division (PSCD). The framework outlined here prioritizes a need to tie together top-down and bottom-up analyses to produce a comprehensive “system of systems” view of dependencies and interdependencies that integrates the best available data. Examples of dependency and interdependency analyses from recent Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) projects are included to illustrate practical applications of these concepts in support of infrastructure resilience.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Applied Resiliency for More Trustworthy Grid Operation (ARMORE) (Final Technical Report)

Applied Resiliency for More Trustworthy Grid Operation (ARMORE) is an open-source software system that can perform inspection of network packets and alarm on communication that does not comply with the specified ARMORE policy. ARMORE can be configured to take action to block network traffic based on deep inspection of common substation communications protocols, such as the Distributed Network Protocol (DNP3). After validation for compliance with policy, ARMORE can encapsulate and encrypt legacy communications and resiliently transmit this information among ARMORE nodes (such as between the substation and the control center). Through this peer-based framework for secure information exchange, ARMORE provides the functionality to push secure, fault-tolerant real-time communication capabilities deeper into critical utility networks

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Gas-Electrical Grid Coordination for Cross Infrastructure Resilience Enhancement

An electric power grid is exceedingly faced with extreme events, such as physical attacks and natural disasters. In comparison, the underground natural gas pipeline-based transportation network is considered less vulnerable to such environmental threats. We consider that the overhead power transmissions can be hardened by replacing segments of electric power system with underground natural gas pipelines as an energy transportation system to counter effect extreme events which can damage interdependent infrastructures severely. This project investigates an extension of the power system planning problem considering extreme events and identifies the feasibility of solving this problem with advanced modeling and optimization methods. The proposed planning framework is formulated as a two-stage optimization problem. It is found that the integrated planning introduces the additional cost of pipeline planning and the operation constraints into the power system planning. However, gas pipelines are generally less exposed to extreme events, which can provide a more resilient power transmission for supplying the electrical loads. It is with this potential for enhancing the power grid resilience that the proposed integrated expansion of electricity and natural gas system is considered an optimal layout for the transportation of energy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

System of Systems Model Development for Evaluating EMP Resilient Grid Mitigation Strategies

This Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project focused on understanding the mathematical relationships that can be used in assessing the value of executing various EMP mitigation strategies on the grid. This is referred to as the EMP Resilient Grid Value Model. Because the range of mitigation strategies can contain widely differing characteristics (operational vs. technological), it is necessary to compute functions of many interrelated metrics at varying levels of fidelity that will be used to provide feedback as to the cost/benefit relationship of any proposed strategy. The value model is a hierarchical decomposition of a system of systems (SoS) model down to a grid circuit model. The model is intended to be suitable for use in subsequent decision support optimization for resilience to EMP events. The metric set goes beyond direct, technical impacts on the electrical grid to include ancillary impacts on dependent infrastructure and enterprise concerns (water, DoD, transportation, etc.).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Development of an Urban Resilience Analysis Framework with Application to Norfolk, VA

The same water that makes Norfolk, Virginia an ideal home for international ports and naval installations is also increasingly flooding large parts of the city and the surrounding Hampton Roads region. This report describes the development of a process to analyze the resilience of urban regions to the shocks and stresses that those cities care about, and applies this process to address flooding in Norfolk and Hampton Roads. The goal is to provide Norfolk city officials and regional asset owners with actionable information to plan the infrastructure improvements that will most greatly enhance the regions resilience to flooding. Results suggest that there are wide - ranging impacts of a major acute flooding event beyond the Hampton Roads region. A single four - day, 100 - year flood event in Hampton Roads would cause on the order of $355 - 606 million in detrimental impacts to global production, with greater impacts occurring in the future as net sea levels rise. This report highlights the infrastructure behaviors, interdependencies, and the economic analyses that determine these impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Use of Embedded Electric Grid Storage for Resilience, Operational Flexibility, and Cyber-Security

In recent years, bulk energy storage has been applied to electric power systems as an auxiliary device for the support of grid reliability via grid services. This approach is useful but only extracts value from storage on a marginal basis because grid services involve only a tiny fraction of the power flowing in a grid. While storage is flexible enough to perform many services, assessing its value on a stacked-services basis obscures its real value: storage is a buffer for electric energy flows. All of its capabilities stem from this one fundamental property. Limiting storage to use as an ancillary services device leaves this primary value untapped. The real value of storage is as a means to provide a key characteristic missing from power grids: the ability to absorb stresses with little or no loss of performance – the essence of resilience. Storage applied systematically throughout the grid can provide the missing “shock absorber” springiness that the grid is missing. To provide this value, storage must be incorporated into the grid as core infrastructure and must be deeply integrated into grid operations. Doing so will provide far-reaching benefits to users of electricity at all levels, including vastly increased system resilience, expanded system operational flexibility, support for critical lifeline functions during critical events, and even improved cyber security.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR). User Manual, Version 0.2.3

The Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR, pronounced winter) is a Python package designed to simulate and analyze resilience of water distribution networks. Here, a network refers to the collection of pipes, pumps, valves, junctions, tanks, and reservoirs that make up a water distribution system. WNTR has an application programming interface (API) that is flexible and allows for changes to the network structure and operations, along with simulation of disruptive incidents and recovery actions. WNTR is based upon EPANET, which is a tool to simulate the movement and fate of drinking water constituents within distribution systems. Users are encouraged to be familiar with the use of EPANET and/or should have background knowledge in hydraulics and pressurized pipe network modeling before using WNTR. EPANET has a graphical user interface that might be a useful tool to facilitate the visualization of the network and the associated analysis results. Information on EPANET can be found at https://www.epa.gov/water-research/epanet. WNTR is compatible with EPANET 2.00.12 [Ross00]. In addition, users should have experience using Python, including the installation of additional Python packages. General information on Python can be found at https://www.python.org/.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Federal Energy Management Program’s Technical Resilience Navigator: Communications Plan

The Federal Energy Management Program is working to develop a standard, agency-neutral energy and water technical resilience navigator (TRN) to assist federal agencies with their resilience planning efforts, building on agency-expressed needs. The TRN Communications Plan defines how the project team and FEMP will generate awareness of the TRN, recruit validators, encourage its use across federal agencies, increase awareness among various audiences, and solicit user feedback on its usefulness including suggestions for improvement. In support of this purpose, the communications plan characterizes the key audiences, messages, communications channels, and activities needed to help ensure success. The role of communications is to define strategy and ensure leadership and consistency in messaging, writing, outreach, media relations, editing, and design related to the TRN.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Summary of Preliminary Concepts for a Port of Alaska Resilient Microgrid

The Port of Alaska in Anchorage enables the economic vitality of the Municipality of Anchorage and State of Alaska. It also provides significant support to defense activities across Alaska, especially to the Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson (JBER) that is immediately adjacent to the Port. For this reason, stakeholders are interested in the resilience of the Ports operations. This report documents a preliminary feasibility analysis for developing an energy system that increases electric supply resilience for the Port and for a specific location inside JBER. The project concept emerged from prior work led by the Municipality of Anchorage and consultation with Port stakeholders. The project consists of a microgrid with PV, storage and diesel generation, capable of supplying electricity to loads at the Port a specific JBER location during utility outages, while also delivering economic value during blue-sky conditions. The study aims to estimate the size, configuration and concept of operations based on existing infrastructure and limited demand data. It also explores potential project benefits and challenges. The report goal is to inform further stakeholder consultation and next steps.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Overview of Preliminary Concepts for a Port of Alaska Resilient Microgrid

The Port of Alaska in Anchorage enables the economic vitality of the Municipality of Anchorage and State of Alaska. It also provides significant support to defense activities across Alaska, especially to the Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson (JBER) that is immediately adjacent to the Port. For this reason, stakeholders are interested in the resilience of the Ports operations. This report documents a preliminary feasibility analysis for developing an energy system that increases electric supply resilience for the Port and for a specific location inside JBER. The project concept emerged from prior work led by the Municipality of Anchorage and consultation with Port stakeholders. The project consists of a microgrid with PV, storage and diesel generation, capable of supplying electricity to loads at the Port a specific JBER location during utility outages, while also delivering economic value during blue-sky conditions. The study aims to estimate the size, configuration and concept of operations based on existing infrastructure and limited demand data. It also explores potential project benefits and challenges. The report goal is to inform further stakeholder consultation and next steps.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗