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Large Primtive Asteroids: Thermal and Dynamical Context

Primitiveasteroids, most of which are located in the outer belt and Jupiter’s Trojan clouds, provide information related to the origin and evolution of the solar system and the conditions in which the solar nebula was formed. These asteroids are widely thought to be the origin of the least-altered car-bonaceous chondrite that allow us to put crucial con-straints on the current dynamical and thermal theories of the formation and evolution of the early solar sys-tem. The nature of surface composition of large and low-albedo asteroids, like (1) Ceres, (10) Hygiea and (52) Europa, is still under intense debate and different interpretations have beenput forth to explain the ab-sorption features in these objects (e.g.,[1, 2, 3,4,5,6]). Laboratory and spectroscopic experiments on me-teorites that represent all nine carbonaceous chondrite types also found no spectral matches for these large asteroids (e.g.,[7]). Previous studies of asteroid Ceres (the largest primitive asteroid in the solar system) have been conducted to constrain and estimate its surface composition (e.g., [2, 5]). Using linear mixing,[2]found hydroxide brucite, serpentines, and carbonates, to be consistent with Ceres’ ground-based spectra.[5]estimated the surface composition of Ceres and found evidence of widespread NH3-phyllosilicates across its surface using best-fit solutions to Dawn’s NIR spectra. The presence of NH3-phyllosilicates implies that mate-rial from the outer solar system was incorporated into large primitive asteroids, either during their formation at great heliocentric distance or by incorporation of material transported into the Main Belt region. Here we presentnew largeand primitive asteroidsthat share the same spectral similaritieswith the largest asteroid in the solar system, Ceres.We also present the context of these new observations in terms oftheirthermal and dynamicalevolution.Large Primitive Asteroids: Dynamical and Thermal Context:Orbital Distribution of LargePrimitiveAsteroids: Constraining the mineralogy and surface composition of large primitive asteroids will place crucial con-straints on existing dynamical and thermal theories of the formation of the early solar system. We identified several additional asteroids in the Europa-like group in addition to asteroids Europa, Euphrosyne, and Patien-tia, that wereidentified in [8]using NASA IRTFtele-scope (e.g.,Figure 1). These new asteroids along with the already-observed Ceres-and Europa-like group members are localized in the 2.8 < a < 3.4 AU region and characterized by larger sizes, showing an interest-ing orbital distribution (Figure 2). Ceres-likeand Eu-ropa-like groups, which include the largest asteroids in the solar system, show an interesting orbital distribu-tion. These groups are located in the 2.6 < a < 3.6 AU region that contains the snow-line. The snow-line’s location may have been driftedinwards due to the disk’s cooling and evolution[9,10]. Recent dynamical models[11,12]suggested that a substantial fraction of primitive asteroids originated between or beyond the giant planets (a > 5 AU), where water ice would have been stable, and then implanted in the outer Main Belt region because of the giant planets’ growth.Figure 1. Two asteroids, 94 Aurora and 423 Diotima, showing spectra similar to asteroids (1)Ceres and (52)Europa.Thermal modeling and evolution of primitive aster-oids:Primitive water-rich asteroids are thought to be originally composed of mixtures of anhydrous materi-als and water ice that waslater melted by heating sources such as the decay of 26Al, reacting with anhy-drous materials to form H2O/OH-rich minerals. Calcu-lations of the evolution of the temperature and struc-ture of icy planetesimals were performedusing a 1D finite differences thermal evolution model[13, 14] for 26Al-heated planetesimals. In particular, thermally activated compaction due to hot pressing of bodies with an initially unconsolidated porous structure is included. An ice-rich initial composition that leads to a material dominated by phyllosilicates upon aqueous alteration (with 25 vol% H2O and a rock fraction that contains 85 vol% phyllosilicates and 15 vol% olivine upon aque-ous alteration, similar to CIand CM chondrites) was assumed. Atypical initial porosity of 40%[15] is re-duced following the change of the strain rate that is calculated as Voigt approximation from the strain rates of components[16]. Material properties (thermal con-ductivity, density, heat capacity, etc.) correspond to the composition assumed and are adjusted with tempera-ture and porosity. Melting of the water ice as well as water-rock separation are included[14]. Both short-and long-lived radionuclides are consideredas heat sources. Figure 3 shows the maximum temperature calculated as a function of radius and accretion time. A variety of internal structures is obtained, ranging from primordial (no melting of water ice) over partially melted or partially differentiated (melting of water ice, hydration, formation of a rocky core and water ocean below an undifferentiated layer) to completely differ-entiated ones (rocky core, water mantle, Enceladus-like case). The heating and differentiation of planetesi-mals is determined by the availability of 26Al, i.e., by the accretion time t0 relative to the formation of the calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs), such that maximum temperatures and structures vary stronglyfor t0< 6 Myr rel. to CAIs. However, for a later accre-tion only the size of the body determines its maximum tempera-ture and structure due to the nearly constant heating by long-lived radionuclides. Average densities of Ceres-and Europa-like group membersimply high-ly porous interiors and, consequently, relatively late accretion at t0> 3 Myr rel. to CAIs with a maximum temperature of < 600 K (Figure3)

D Takir↗

Consequences of MMOD Penetrations on the International Space Station

Risk from micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts on space vehicles is often quantified in terms of the probability of no penetration (PNP). However, for large spacecraft, especially those with multiple compartments, a penetration may have a number of possible outcomes. The extent of the damage (diameter of hole, crack length or penetration depth), the location of the damage relative to critical equipment or crew, crew response, and even the time of day of the penetration are among the many factors that can affect the outcome. For the International Space Station (ISS), a Monte-Carlo style software code called Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability (MSCSurv) is used to predict the probability of several outcomes of an MMOD penetration—broadly classified as loss of crew (LOC), crew evacuation (Evac), loss of escape vehicle (LEV), and nominal end of mission (NEOM). By generating large numbers of MMOD impacts (typically in the billions) and tracking the consequences, MSCSurv allows for the inclusion of a large number of parameters and models as well as enabling the consideration of uncertainties in the models and parameters. MSCSurv builds upon the results from NASA’s Bumper software (which provides the probability of penetration and critical input data to MSCSurv) to allow analysts to estimate the probability of LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM. This paper provides an overview of the methodology used by NASA to quantify LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM with particular emphasis on describing in broad terms how MSCSurv works and its capabilities and most significant models.

Evans, Hilary J.↗

Origin and Evolution of Enceladus’s Tidal Dissipation

Enceladus possesses a subsurface ocean beneath a conductive ice shell. Based on shell thickness models, the estimated total conductive heat loss from Enceladus is 25–40 GW; the measured heat output from the South Polar Terrain (SPT) is 4–19 GW. The present-day SPT heat flux is of order 100 mWm -21 −, comparable to estimated paleo-heat fluxes for other regions of Enceladus. These regions have nominal ages of about 2 Ga, but the estimates are uncertain because the impactor flux in the Saturnian system may not resemble that elsewhere. Enceladus’s measured rate of orbital expansion implies a low dissipation factor Q p for Saturn, with Q p ≈3×10 -3 (neglecting the role of Dione). This value implies that Enceladus’s present-day equilibrium tidal heat production (roughly 50 GW, but with large uncertainties) is in approximate balance with its heat loss. If Q p is constant, Enceladus cannot be older than 1.5 Gyr (because otherwise it would have migrated more than is permissible). However, Saturn’s dissipation may be better described by the “resonance-locking” theory, in which case Enceladus’s orbit may have only evolved outwards by about 35% over the age of the Solar System. In the constant-Q p scenario, any ancient tidal heating events would have been too energetic to be consistent with the observations. Because resonance-locking makes capture into earlier mean-motion orbital resonances less likely, the inferred ancient heating episodes probably took place when the current orbital resonance was already established. In the resonance-locking scenario, tidal heating did not change significantly over time, allowing for a long-lived ocean and a relatively stable ice shell. If so, Enceladus is an attractive target for future exploration from a habitability standpoint.

Satellites of Saturn↗

Merging Ocean Color Data From Multiple Missions

Oceanic phytoplankton may play an important role in the cycling of carbon on the Earth, through the uptake of carbon dioxide in the process of photosynthesis. Although they are ubiquitous in the global oceans, their abundances and dynamics are difficult to estimate, primarily due to the vast spatial extent of the oceans and the short time scales over which their abundances can change. Consequently, the effects of oceanic phytoplankton on biogeochemical cycling, climate change, and fisheries are not well known. In response to the potential importance of phytoplankton in the global carbon cycle and the lack of comprehensive data, NASA and the international community have established high priority satellite missions designed to acquire and produce high quality ocean color data (Table 6.1). Ten of the missions are routine global observational missions: the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (OCTS), the Polarization and Directionality of the Earth's Reflectances sensor (POLDER), Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer-AM (MODIS-AM), Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS), Global Imager (GLI), MODIS-PM, Super-GLI (S-GLI), and the Visible/Infrared Imager and Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) and the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS). In addition, there are several other missions capable of providing ocean color data on smaller scales. Most of these missions contain the spectral band complement considered necessary to derive oceanic chlorophyll concentrations and other related parameters. Many contain additional bands that can provide important ancillary information about the optical and biological state of the oceans.

Gregg, Watson W.↗

Predicting the Consequences of MMOD Penetrations on the International Space Station

The threat from micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts on space vehicles is often quantified in terms of the probability of no penetration (PNP). However, for large spacecraft, especially those with multiple compartments, a penetration may have a number of possible outcomes. The extent of the damage (diameter of hole, crack length or penetration depth), the location of the damage relative to critical equipment or crew, crew response, and even the time of day of the penetration are among the many factors that can affect the outcome. For the International Space Station (ISS), a Monte-Carlo style software code called Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability (MSCSurv) is used to predict the probability of several outcomes of an MMOD penetration-broadly classified as loss of crew (LOC), crew evacuation (Evac), loss of escape vehicle (LEV), and nominal end of mission (NEOM). By generating large numbers of MMOD impacts (typically in the billions) and tracking the consequences, MSCSurv allows for the inclusion of a large number of parameters and models as well as enabling the consideration of uncertainties in the models and parameters. MSCSurv builds upon the results from NASA's Bumper software (which provides the probability of penetration and critical input data to MSCSurv) to allow analysts to estimate the probability of LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM. This paper briefly describes the overall methodology used by NASA to quantify LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM with particular emphasis on describing in broad terms how MSCSurv works and its capabilities and most significant models.

Hyde, James↗

TRMM: Status of Precipitation Estimates, Science Highlights, and 3-Hour Global, Tropical Precipitation Estimates

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed more than three years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging from climate analysis, through improving forecasts, to microphysical research. Examples and plans for operational use of TRMM data in tropical cyclone and other applications will be given. The status of precipitation estimates from different instruments and algorithms will be described. Monthly surface rainfall estimates over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20% in overall mean. In addition, time changes in global ocean rainfall between El Nino and La Nina conditions show a difference in sign between the active and passive microwave products. These differences are not surprising considering the different type of observations available for the first time from TRMM with both the passive and active microwave sensors. Resolving the differences will strengthen the validity and utility of ocean rainfall estimates. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. The GPCP analysis agrees roughly in magnitude with the passive microwave-based TRMM estimates which is not surprising considering GPCP over-ocean estimates are based on passive microwave observations. A three-year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. Results of using TRMM information to calibrate other passive microwave observations and geosynchronous infrared rainfall estimates and then merging them those estimates into a global, tropical 3-hour time resolution analysis will also be described.

Adler, Robert↗

Long term microparticle impact fluxes on LDEF determined from optical survey of Interplanetary Dust Experiment (IDE) sensors

Many of the IDE metal-oxide-silicon (MOS) capacitor-discharge impact sensors remained active during the entire Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) mission. An optical survey of impact sites on the active surfaces of these sensors has been extended to include all sensors from the low-flux sides of LDEF (i.e. the west or trailing side, the earth end, and the space end) and 5-7 active sensors from each LDEF's high-flux sides (i.e. the east or leading side, the south side, and the north side). This survey was facilitated by the presence of a relatively large (greater than 50 micron diameter) optical signature associated with each impact site on the active sensor surfaces. Of the approximately 4700 impacts in the optical survey data set, 84% were from particles in the 0.5 to 3 micron size range. An estimate of the total number of hypervelocity impacts on LDEF from particles greater than 0.5 micron diameter yields a value of approximately 7 x 10(exp 6). Impact feature dimensions for several dozen large craters on MOS sensors and germanium witness plates are also presented. Impact fluxes calculated from the IDE survey data closely matched surveys of similar size impacts (greater than or equal to 3 micron diameter craters in Al, or marginal penetrations of a 2.4 micron thick Al foil) by other LDEF investigators. Since the first year IDE data were electronically recorded, the flux data could be divided into three long term time periods: the first year, the entire 5.8 year mission, and the intervening 4.8 years (by difference). The IDE data show that there was an order of magnitude decrease in the long term microparticle impact flux on the trailing side of LDEF, from 1.01 to 0.098 x 10(exp -4) m(exp 2)/s, from the first year in orbit compared to years 2-6. The long term flux on the leading edge showed an increase from 8.6 to 11.2 x 10(exp -4) m(exp -2)/s over this same time period. (Short term flux increases up to 10,000 times the background rate were recorded on the leading side during LDEF's first year in orbit.) The overall east/west ratio was 44, but during LDEF's first year in orbit the ratio was 8.5, and during years 2-6 the ratio was 114. Long term microparticle impact fluxes on the space end decreased from 1.12 to 0.55 x 10(exp -4) m(exp -2)/s from the first year in orbit compared to years 2-6. The earth end showed the opposite trend with an increase from 0.16 to 0.38 x 10(exp -4) m(exp -2)/s. Fluxes on rows 6 and 12 decreased from 6.1 to 3.4 and 6.7 to 3.7 x 10(exp -4) m(exp -2)/s, respectively, over the same time periods. This resulted in space/earth microparticle impact flux ratios of 7.1 during the first year and 1.5 during years 2-6, while the south/north, space/north and space/south ratios remained constant at 1.1, 0.16 and 0.17, respectively, during the entire mission. This information indicates the possible identification of long term changes in discrete microparticle orbital debris component contributions to the total impact flux experienced by LDEF. A dramatic decrease in the debris population capable of striking the trailing side was detected that could possibly be attributed to the hiatus of western launch activity experienced from 1986-1989. A significant increase in the debris population that preferentially struck the leading side was also observed and could possibly be attributed to a single breakup event that occurred in September of 1986. A substantial increase in the microparticle debris population that struck the earth end of LDEF, but not the space end, was also detected and could possibly be the result of a single breakup event at low altitude. These results point to the importance of including discrete orbital debris component contribution changes in flux models in order to achieve accurate predictions of the microparticle environment that a particular spacecraft will experience in earth orbit. The only reliable, verified empirical measurements of these changes are reported in this paper. Further time-resolved in-situ measurements of these debris populations are needed to accurately assess model predictions and mitigation practices.

Simon, C. G.↗

Our Sun V: A Bright Young Sun Consistent with Helioseismology and Warm Temperatures on Ancient Earth and Mars

The relatively warm temperatures required on early Earth and Mars have been difficult to account for with warming from greenhouse gases. A slightly more massive young Sun would be brighter than predicted by the standard solar model, simultaneously resolving this problem for both Earth and Mars. We computed high-precision solar models with seven initial masses, from Mi = 1.01 to 1.07 solar mass - the latter being the maximum permitted if the early Earth is not to lose its water via a moist greenhouse effect. The relatively modest early mass loss that is required remains consistent with observational limits on mass loss from young stars and with estimates of the past solar wind obtained from lunar rocks. We considered three types of mass loss rates: (1) a reasonable choice of a simple exponential decline, (2) an extreme step-function case that gives the maximum effect consistent with observations, and (3) the radical case of a linear decline which is inconsistent with the solar wind mass loss estimates from lunar rocks. Our computations demonstrated that mass loss leaves a fingerprint oil the Sun's internal structure large enough to be detectable with helioseismic observations. All of our mass-losing solar models were consistent with the helioseismic observations; in fact, our preferred mass-losing cases were in marginally better agreement with the helioseismology than the standard solar model was, although this difference was smaller than the effects of other uncertainties in the input physics and in the solar composition. Mass loss has only a relatively minor effect on the predicted lithium depletion; the major portion of the solar lithium depletion must still be due to rotational mixing. Thus the modest mass loss cases considered here cannot be ruled out by observed lithium depletions. For the three mass loss types considered, the preferred initial masses were 1.07 solar mass for the exponential case and 1.04 solar mass for the step-function and linear cases; all of these provided high enough solar fluxes at Mars 3.8 Gyr ago to be consistent with the existence of liquid water. For a more massive early Sun, the planets would have had to be closer to the young Sun in order to end up in their present orbits; the orbital radii of the planets would vary inversely with the solar mass. Both of these effects contribute to the fact that the early solar flux at the planets would have been considerably higher than that of the standard solar model at that time. In fact, the 1.07 solar mass exponential case has a flux at birth 5% higher than the present solar flux, while the radical 1.04 solar mass linear case has a nearly constant flux over the first 3 Gyr only about 10% lower than at present. The early solar evolution would be in the opposite direction in the H-R diagram to that of the standard Sun.

Sackmann, I.-Juliana↗

NASA Tech Briefs, May 2009

Topics covered include: Valve-"Health"-Monitoring System; Microstrip Antenna for Remote Sensing of Soil Moisture and Sea Surface Salinity; Biomedical Wireless Ambulatory Crew Monitor; Wireless Avionics Packet to Support Fault Tolerance for Flight Applications; Aerobot Autonomy Architecture; Submillimeter Confocal Imaging Active Module; Traveling-Wave Maser for 32 GHz; System Synchronizes Recordings from Separated Video Cameras; Piecewise-Planar Parabolic Reflectarray Antenna; Reducing Interference in ATC Voice Communication; EOS MLS Level 1B Data Processing, Version 2.2; Auto-Generated Semantic Processing Services; Geospatial Authentication; Maneuver Automation Software; Event Driven Messaging with Role-Based Subscriptions; Estimating Relative Positions of Outer-Space Structures; Fabricating PFPE Membranes for Capillary Electrophoresis; Linear Actuator Has Long Stroke and High Resolution; Installing a Test Tap on a Metal Battery Case; Fabricating PFPE Membranes for Microfluidic Valves and Pumps; Room-Temperature-Cured Copolymers for Lithium Battery Gel Electrolytes; Catalysts for Efficient Production of Carbon Nanotubes; Amorphous Silk Fibroin Membranes for Separation of CO2; "Zero-Mass" Noninvasive Pressure Transducers; Radial-Electric-Field Piezoelectric Diaphragm Pumps; Ejector-Enhanced, Pulsed, Pressure-Gain Combustor; Suppressing Ghost Diffraction in E-Beam-Written Gratings; Target-Tracking Camera for a Metrology System; Polarimetric Imaging using Two Photoelastic Modulators; Miniature Wide-Angle Lens for Small-Pixel Electronic Camera; Modal Filters for Infrared Interferometry; Mo(3)Sb(7-x)Te(x) for Thermoelectric Power Generation; Two-Dimensional Quantum Model of a Nanotransistor; Scanning Miniature Microscopes without Lenses; Manipulating Neutral Atoms in Chip-Based Magnetic Traps; Expansion Compression Contacts for Thermoelectric Legs; Processing Electromyographic Signals to Recognize Words; Physical Principle for Generation of Randomness; DSN Beowulf Cluster-Based VLBI Correlator; Hybrid NN/SVM Computational System for Optimizing Designs; Criteria for Modeling in LES of Multicomponent Fuel Flow; Computerized Machine for Cutting Space Shuttle Thermal Tiles; Orbiting Depot and Reusable Lander for Lunar Transportation; FPGA-Based Networked Phasemeter for a Heterodyne Interferometer; Aquarius Digital Processing Unit; Three-Dimensional Optical Coherence Tomography; Benchtop Antigen Detection Technique using Nanofiltration and Fluorescent Dyes; Isolation of Precursor Cells from Waste Solid Fat Tissue; Identification of Bacteria and Determination of Biological Indicators; Further Development of Scaffolds for Regeneration of Nerves; Chemically Assisted Photocatalytic Oxidation System; Use of Atomic Oxygen for Increased Water Contact Angles of Various Polymers for Biomedical Applications; Crashworthy Seats Would Afford Superior Protection; Open-Access, Low-Magnetic-Field MRI System for Lung Research; Microfluidic Mixing Technology for a Universal Health Sensor; Microfluidic Extraction of Biomarkers using Water as Solvent; Microwell Arrays for Studying Many Individual Cells; Droplet-Based Production of Liposomes; and Identifying and Inactivating Bacterial Spores

Source record↗

Icy Satellites of Saturn: Impact Cratering and Age Determination

Saturn is the first giant planet to be visited by an orbiting spacecraft that can transmit large amounts of data to Earth. Crater counts on satellites from Phoebe inward to the regular satellites and ring moons are providing unprecedented insights into the origin and time histories of the impacting populations. Many Voyager-era scientists concluded that the satellites had been struck by at least two populations of impactors. In this view, the Population I impactors, which were generally judged to be comets orbiting the Sun, formed most of the larger and older craters, while Population II impactors, interpreted as Saturn-orbiting ejecta from impacts on satellites, produced most of the smaller and younger craters. Voyager data also implied that all of the ring moons, and probably some of the midsized classical moons, had been catastrophically disrupted and reaccreted since they formed. We examine models of the primary impactor populations in the Saturn system. At the present time, ecliptic comets, which likely originate in the Kuiper belt/scattered disk, are predicted to dominate impacts on the regular satellites and ring moons, but the models require extrapolations in size (from the observed Kuiper belt objects to the much smaller bodies that produce the craters) or in distance (from the known active Jupiter family comets to 9.5 AU). Phoebe, Iapetus, and perhaps even moons closer to Saturn have been struck by irregular satellites as well. We describe the Nice model, which provides a plausible mechanism by which the entire Solar System might have experienced an era of heavy bombardment long after the planets formed. We then discuss the three cratering chronologies, including one based upon the Nice model, that have been used to infer surface ages from crater densities on the saturnian satellites. After reviewing scaling relations between the properties of impactors and the craters they produce, we provide model estimates of the present-day rate at which comets impact, and catastrophically disrupt, the saturnian moons. Finally, we present crater counts on the satellites from two different groups. Many of the heavily cratered terrains appear to be nearly saturated, so it is difficult to infer the provenance of the impactors from crater counts alone. More large craters have been found on Iapetus than on any other satellite. Enceladus displays an enormous range of surface ages, ranging from the old mid-latitude plains to the extremely young South Polar Terrain. Cassini images provide some evidence for the reality of Population II. Most of the observed craters may have formed in one or more cataclysms, but more work is needed to determine the roles of heliocentric and planetocentric bodies in creating the craters.

Dones, L.↗

Exploring the Spatiotemporal Coverage of Terrestrial Snow Mass Using a Suite of Satellite Constellation Configurations

Terrestrial snow is a vital freshwater resource for more than 1 billion people. Remotely-sensed snow observations can be used to retrieve snow mass or integrated into a snow model estimate; however, optimally leveraging remote sensing observations of snow is challenging. One reason is that no single sensor can accurately measure all types of snow because each type of sensor has its own unique limitations. Another reason is that remote sensing data is inherently discontinuous across time and space, and that the revisit cycle of remote sensing observations may not meet the requirements of a given snow applications. In order to quantify the feasible availability of remotely-sensed observations across space and time, this study simulates the sensor coverage for a suite of hypothetical snow sensors as a function of different orbital configurations and sensor properties. The information gleaned from this analysis coupled with a dynamic snow binary map is used to evaluate the efficiency of a single sensor (or constellation) to observe terrestrial snow on a global scale. The results show the efficacy achievable by different sensors over different snow types. The combination of different orbital and sensor configurations is explored to requirements of remote sensing missions that have 1-day, 3-day, or 30-day repeat intervals. The simulation results suggest that 1100 km, 550 km, and 200 km are the minimum required swath width for a polar-orbiting sensor to meet snow-related applications demanding a 1-day, 3-day, and 30-day repeat cycles, respectively. The results of this paper provide valuable input for the planning of a future global snow mission.

Lizhao Wang↗

Histogrammatic Method for Determining Relative Abundance of Input Gas Pulse

To satisfy the Major Constituents Analysis (MCA) requirements for the Vehicle Cabin Atmosphere Monitor (VCAM), this software analyzes the relative abundance ratios for N2, O2, Ar, and CO2 as a function of time and constructs their best-estimate mean. A histogram is first built of all abundance ratios for each of the species vs time. The abundance peaks corresponding to the intended measurement and any obfuscating background are then separated via standard peak-finding techniques in histogram space. A voting scheme is then used to include/exclude this particular time sample in the final average based on its membership to the intended measurement or the background population. This results in a robust and reasonable estimate of the abundance of trace components such as CO2 and Ar even in the presence of obfuscating backgrounds internal to the VCAM device. VCAM can provide a means for monitoring the air within the enclosed environments, such as the ISS (International Space Station), Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), a Lunar Habitat, or another vehicle traveling to Mars. Its miniature pre-concentrator, gas chromatograph (GC), and mass spectrometer can provide unbiased detection of a large number of organic species as well as MCA analysis. VCAM s software can identify the concentration of trace chemicals and whether the chemicals are on a targeted list of hazardous compounds. This innovation s performance and reliability on orbit, along with the ground team s assessment of its raw data and analysis results, will validate its technology for future use and development.

Mandrake, Lukas↗

Broadband High-Energy Observations of the Superluminal Jet Source GRO J1655-40 During an Outburst

The X-ray/radio transient superluminal jet source GRO J1655-40 was recently suggested to contain a black hole from optical observations. Because it is a relatively close-by system (d approximately 3.2 kpc), it can likely provide us with rich information about the physics operating in both Galactic and extragalactic jet sources. We present the first simultaneous broadband high-energy observations of GRO J1655-40 during the 1995 July-August outburst by three instruments: ASCA, WATCH/Granat, and BATSE/CGRO, in the energy band from 1 keV to 2 MeV. Our observations strengthen the interpretation that GRO J1655-40 contains a black hole. We detected a two-component energy spectrum, commonly seen from other Galactic black hole binaries, but never detected from a neutron star system. Combining our results with the mass limits derived from optical radial velocity and orbital period measurements, we further constrain the mass of the central object to be between 3.3 and 5.8 solar mass, above the well-established mass upper limit of 3.2 solar mass for a neutron star (the optical mass function for GRO J1655-40 is 3.16 + 0.2 solar mass). This system is therefore the first Galactic superluminal jet source for which there is strong evidence that the system contains a stellar mass black hole. The inclination angle of the binary system is constrained to be between 76 deg and 87 deg, consistent with estimates obtained from optical light curves and radio jet kinematics.

Zhang, S. N.↗

In Situ Observations and Sampling of Volcanic Emissions with Unmanned Aircraft: A NASA/UCR Case Study at Turrialba Volcano, Costa Rica

Burgeoning new technology in the design and development of robotic aircraft-unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)-presents unprecedented opportunities for the volcanology community to observe, measure, and sample eruption plumes and drifting volcanic clouds in situ. While manned aircraft can sample dilute parts of such emissions, demonstrated hazards to air breathing, and most particularly turbine, engines preclude penetration of the zones of highest ash concentrations. Such areas within plumes are often of highest interest with respect to boundary conditions of applicable mass-loading retrieval models, as well as Lagrangian, Eulerian, and hybrid transport models used by hazard responders to predict plume trajectories, particularly in the context of airborne hazards. Before the 2010 Ejyafyallajokull eruption in Iceland, ICAO zero-ash-tolerance rules were typically followed, particularly for relatively uncrowded Pacific Rim airspace, and over North and South America, where often diversion of aircraft around ash plumes and clouds was practical. The 2010 eruption in Iceland radically changed the paradigm, in that critical airspace over continental Europe and the United Kingdom were summarily shut by local civil aviation authorities and EURO CONTROL. A strong desire emerged for better real-time knowledge of ash cloud characteristics, particularly ash concentrations, and especially for validation of orbital multispectral imaging. UAV platforms appear to provide a viable adjunct, if not a primary source, of such in situ data for volcanic plumes and drifting volcanic clouds from explosive eruptions, with prompt and comprehensive application to aviation safety and to the basic science of volcanology. Current work is underway in Costa Rica at Turrialba volcano by the authors, with the goal of developing and testing new small, economical UAV platforms, with miniaturized instrument payloads, within a volcanic plume. We are underway with bi-monthly deployments of tethered SO2-sondes and are in the planning stages for the deployment of the SIERRA UAV to our site in March 2013. We will be conducting in situ observations simultaneously with ASTER orbital multispectral TIR data acquisitions, in order to compare in situ measurements with estimates of SO2 mass loading and dispersion derived from ASTER data. Though small UAVs are now being considered for use in active volcanic areas for in situ sampling of emissions (e.g., efforts by our group, and by our colleagues at the INGV in Italy and the Applied Science University in Dusseldorf, Germany, and others in the United Kingdom and Iceland), and also for remote sensing, much more needs to be done in the way of instrument development, and in developing small UAVs for both low altitude (tropospheric) and high altitude (stratospheric) applications. In particular, the development of all weather and day/night operational flight capabilities in close proximity to hazardous topography is crucial to a truly responsive volcano in situ measurement system. Finally, it is imperative that national civil aviation authorities recognize the unique benefits of such platforms. It is important that authorities understand that severely restricting or not deploying such tools in airspace over restless volcanoes or within eruption plumes, ostensibly because of the perceived (small) risk that such unmanned aircraft pose to manned air operations, itself poses a bigger transcendental risk to proximal populations and particularly to the aviation community, itself.

Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs)↗

In situ and ex situ formation models of Kepler 11 planets

We present formation simulations of the six Kepler 11 planets. Models assume either in situ or ex situ assembly, the latter with migration, and are evolved to the estimated age of the system, ≈8 Gyr. Models combine detailed calculations of both the gaseous envelope and the condensed core structures, including accretion of gas and solids, of the disk’s viscous and thermal evolution, including photo-evaporation and disk-planet interactions, and of the planet’s evaporative mass loss after disk dispersal. Planet–planet interactions are neglected. Both sets of simulations successfully reproduce measured radii, masses, and orbital distances of the planets, except for the radius of Kepler 11b, which loses its entire gaseous envelope shortly after formation. Gaseous (H+He) envelopes account for ≲18% of the planet masses, and between ≈35 and ≈60% of the planet radii. In situ models predict a very massive inner disk, whose solid surface density (σ{sub Z}) varies from over 10{sup 4} to ≈10{sup 3} g cm{sup −2} at stellocentric distances 0.1≲r≲0.5 au. Initial gas densities would be in excess of 10{sup 5} g cm{sup −2} if solids formed locally. Given the high disk temperatures (≳1000 K), planetary interiors can only be composed of metals and highly refractory materials. Sequestration of hydrogen by the core and subsequent outgassing is required to account for the observed radius of Kepler 11b. Ex situ models predict a relatively low-mass disk, whose initial σ{sub Z} varies from ≈10 to ≈5 g cm{sup −2} at 0.5≲r≲7 au and whose initial gas density ranges from ≈10{sup 3} to ≈100 g cm{sup −2}. All planetary interiors are expected to be rich in H{sub 2}O, as core assembly mostly occurs exterior to the ice condensation front. Kepler 11b is expected to have a steam atmosphere, and H{sub 2}O is likely mixed with H+He in the envelopes of the other planets. Results indicate that Kepler 11g may not be more massive than Kepler 11e.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reducing Ground-based Astrometric Errors with Gaia and Gaussian Processes

Stochastic field distortions caused by atmospheric turbulence are a fundamental limitation to the astrometric accuracy of ground-based imaging. This distortion field is measurable at the locations of stars with accurate positions provided by the Gaia DR2 catalog; we develop the use of Gaussian process regression (GPR) to interpolate the distortion field to arbitrary locations in each exposure. We introduce an extension to standard GPR techniques that exploits the knowledge that the 2D distortion field is curl-free. Applied to several hundred 90 s exposures from the Dark Energy Survey as a test bed, we find that the GPR correction reduces the variance of the turbulent astrometric distortions ≈12× , on average, with better performance in denser regions of the Gaia catalog. The rms per-coordinate distortion in the riz bands is typically ≈7 mas before any correction and ≈2 mas after application of the GPR model. The GPR astrometric corrections are validated by the observation that their use reduces, from 10 to 5 mas rms, the residuals to an orbit fit to riz-band observations over 5 yr of the r = 18.5 trans-Neptunian object Eris. We also propose a GPR method, not yet implemented, for simultaneously estimating the turbulence fields and the 5D stellar solutions in a stack of overlapping exposures, which should yield further turbulence reductions in future deep surveys.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

An Investigation Into Transecting Satellites in Future Space Traffic Management Scenarios

The number of satellites expected to populate the near-Earth space environment is set to dramatically increase in the coming decade as new large constellations are approved and deployed. Current strategies for deploying new batches of these satellites often involve launching into an initial orbit, and then performing apogee raising maneuvers to reach a target altitude. Similarly, end-of-life planning for these constellation satellites can consist of de-orbit burns that lower perigee to permit disposal via re-entry. Both the raising and de-orbiting maneuvers can result in the individual satellites traveling in transecting orbits that have the potential to cross other spacecraft trajectories. While individual large constellations may be able to coexist in separate altitude and inclination bands, having thousands of satellites moving between these bands as new satellites are added and old satellites are removed could pose additional collision risks. Similar concerns have been raised regarding the impact that large numbers of university-class CubeSats might have in terms of their overall collision risk, especially as these satellites typically do not have propulsion systems for active maneuvering. To assess the impact that transecting satellites might have on future space traffic management strategies, this study explored a variety of realistic future scenarios using a high-fidelity simulation tool. The model can simulate the orbit of tens of thousands of resident space objects (RSOs) simultaneously, to include active satellites, debris, rocket bodies, or even future hypothetical satellite constellations, using a realistic force model that incorporates non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure, as well as station-keeping. The simulation can be customized to accommodate different methods of calculating the probability of collision, as well as the process for determining probability ellipsoids and screening volumes. This makes it possible to replicate, and compare, different processes used by different spacecraft operators and space situational awareness (SSA) providers. As the model is run forward in time, each conjunction event is recorded, allowing for the analysis of statistics and meta-data related to these events, providing insight into the nature and frequency of potential collisions, such as whether are they active or passive objects, what size are the two objects, and who owns the objects (if known). This information makes it possible to characterize how changes to the status quo affect the number and type of conjunctions that occur, as well as the distributional effects on various types of satellite operators. To assess the general risks that transecting satellites might pose for hypothetical future space object environments, approximately 60,000 new large constellation satellites were considered, in addition to the existing catalog of approximately 7800 known resident space objects (RSOs), over a simulation period of one year. The results indicate that the future space environment will introduce a non-linear increase in conjunction events as the number of RSOs also increase. This will require adjustments to spacecraft fuel budgets in order to conduct the avoidance maneuvers necessary to minimize collision risk, both for existing and new satellites. This increase is due in large part to the higher density of RSOs and the overlap between some constellation orbits. Current catalog objects were shown to require three times more ∆V for collision avoidance (CA) maneuvers in the simulated future environment, and some constellation spacecraft were estimated to devote the majority of their annual ∆V to CA. The impact of small satellites was found to be proportional for the current space environment, and actually decreased in terms of percentage for the future scenario, suggesting that small satellites do not pose an outsized collision risk. Lastly, transecting satellites were found to contribute thousands of additional conjunctions outside of their operational orbit, and may require up to an additional 5% in CA maneuver fuel allocation.

conjunction assessment↗

Validation of GLAS Range Measurement over Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia

NASA's Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) on the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) is Earth's first polar-orbiting satellite laser altimeter. Its primary purpose is to measure ice sheet elevation change, with a scientific requirement of detecting changes as low as 1.5 centimeters per year. This goal requires precise calibration and validation of the instrument. One approach for validating the GLAS range measurement involves comparison with a land reference target. Dry salt lakes are ideal for this purpose since they are large, stable, easily surveyed using kinematic GPS, and have albedos similar to that of ice. We selected the largest dry salt lake in the world, the salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, as a reference target for GLAS. In September 2002 we surveyed a 54 x 45 kilometer area of the salar with car-mounted kinematic GPS, using the data to construct a DEM of the surface. To date there have been six ICESat passes across our survey area, along two intersecting tracks. The first two passes occurred during "Laser 2A" operation (September to November 2003), the second two during "Laser 2B" operation (February to March 2004), and the final two during "Laser 2C" (June to July 2004). We compare GLAS elevations from all six passes with the salar de Uyuni DEM, showing how differing conditions between passes affected the performance of the GLAS instrument and providing an estimate of the relative and absolute accuracy of the range measurement. To check our results, we also compare the GLAS elevations along the same tracks with the mean sea-surface derived from TOPEX over the ocean on either side of South America.

Source record↗