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At least 883 records · Page 49

A Multi-Instance learning Framework for Seismic Detectors

In this report, we construct and test a framework for fusing the predictions of a ensemble of seismic wave detectors. The framework is drawn from multi-instance learning and is meant to improve the predictive skill of the ensemble beyond that of the individual detectors. We show how the framework allows the use of multiple features derived from the seismogram to detect seismic wave arrivals, as well as how it allows only the most informative features to be retained in the ensemble. The computational cost of the "ensembling" method is linear in the size of the ensemble, allowing a scalable method for monitoring multiple features/transformations of a seismogram. The framework is tested on teleseismic and regional p-wave arrivals at the IMS (International Monitoring System) station in Warramunga, NT, Australia and the PNSU station in University of Utah's monitoring network.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic Wave Coherence as a Function of Propagation Azimuth at the Large-N Array, Source Physics Experiment

The Large-N array of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) consisted, in part, of 496 vertical component geophones that recorded the seismic wave field produced by the SPE-5 buried chemical explosion. Preliminary observations of the data showed a large degree of azimuthally dependent seismic scattering, particularly for post-P wave arrivals, hindering surface wave analysis. We document and quantify the azimuthal dependence of the wave field scattering in order to guide future coherent wave field processing methods. Specifically, we form three linear arrays, with different nominal source-receiver azimuths, by extracting a subset of the Large-N stations. For each linear array, we evaluate wave field coherence as a function of frequency and inter-station distance. For P waves, we observe that there is a strong azimuthal dependence of wave coherence, with the highest degree of scattering occurring in a northwest/southeast propagation direction. This suggests that there are structural elements beneath the Large-N array that affect the direct source to receiver body wave ray path. We also observe that the scattering of the post-P energy displays a coherence that is dependent on both frequency and azimuthal direction. This energy is preferentially coherent in the southwest-to-northeast propagation direction, consistent with the strike of the steeply dipping fault (Boundary fault) adjacent to the northeast side of the Large-N array, but only at low frequencies (<10 Hz). At higher frequencies, the azimuthally dependent wave coherence diminishes, suggesting that the scattering of high frequency portion of the post-P wave field is independent of the large-scale geologic structure at this site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Recovery and calibration of legacy analog data from the Leo Brady Seismic Network for the Source Physics Experiment

The Leo Brady Seismic Network (LBSN) was established in 1960 by Sandia National Laboratories for monitoring underground nuclear tests (UGTs) at the Nevada Test Site— renamed in 2010 to the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The LBSN has been in various configurations throughout its existence, but it has been generally comprised of four to six stations at regional distances from the NNSS with evenly spaced azimuthal coverage. Between 1962 and the early 1980s, the LBSN—and a sister network operated by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory—were the most comprehensive U.S. source of regional seismic data of UGTs. During the pre-digital era, LBSN data were transmitted as frequency-modulated (FM) audio over telephone lines to the NTS and recorded in analog on hi-fi 8-track AMPEX tapes. These tapes have been stored in temperature-stable buildings or bunkers on the NNSS and Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque, NM for decades and contain the sole record of this irreplaceable data from the analog era; full waveforms of UGTs during this time were never routinely converted to digital form. We have been developing a process over the past few years to recover and calibrate data from these tapes, converting them from FM audio to digital waveforms in ground motion units. The calibration of legacy data from the LBSN is still ongoing. To date, we have digitized tapes from 592 separate UGTs. As a proof-of-concept, we calibrated data from the BOXCAR event.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Approximating and incorporating model uncertainty in an inversion for seismic source functions: Preliminary results

We present preliminary work on propagating model uncertainty into the estimation of the time domain source time functions of the seismic source. Our method is based on an estimated model covariance function, which we estimate from the data. The model covariance function is then used to construct a suite of surrogate Greens functions which we use in a Monte Carlo type inversion scheme. The result is a probability density function of the six independent source time functions, each of which corresponds to an individual component of the seismic moment tensor. We compare the results of our method with those obtained using a computationally expensive finite difference Monte Carlo method and find that our new method produces results that are deficient in low frequencies. The advantage of our new method, which we term the Karhunen-Loeve Monte Carlo (KLMC) method, is that is several orders of magnitude faster than our current method, which uses a finite difference scheme to produce the suite of forward models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Modeled Performance of the ORNL Matched Filter Detector for Seismic Signatures of Multi-Axle Tractor Trailers

The MINOS program seeks methods to passively monitor the transfer of special materials, which are reproducible and quantitatively defensible. To date, we have demonstrated that short-period seismometers deployed near vehicle tracks can detect and monitor signatures of multi-axle tractor trailers impacting small road obstacles as means to detect and identify some transfer activities. In this report, we model the seismic velocity signal output from a tractor-trailer impacting a small obstacle (a template waveform) to parameterize a matched filter that identifies signals with similar shapes buried in noise, and that indicate repeating events (target waveforms). We then use this model to perform thousands of synthetic experiments, in which we apply our detector to identify noisy waveforms output from a similarly modeled vehicle data set; we process all data in the same manner as we process real data collected from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) seismic network. Our experiments, while limited, reveal that the matched filter shows a high discrimination capability, and at very low SNR values (at visibility thresholds). This means that template waveforms can match target waveforms that are sourced by models that share the same vehicle speed (target vehicles), and have a low probability of mis-identification. In particular, a matched filter designed to detect a five-axle tractor-trailer will reliably identify that target vehicle down to an SNR of 11.25 dB, and within ±0.1 km/hr, while successfully screening target vehicles with three axles.

42 ENGINEERING↗

3D orthorhombic earth model effects on seismic source characterization

Most earth materials are anisotropic with regard to seismic wave-speeds, especially materials such as shales, or where oriented fractures are present. However, the base assumption for many numerical simulations is to treat earth materials as isotropic media. This is done for simplicity, the apparent weakness of anisotropy in the far field, and the lack of well-characterized anisotropic material properties for input into numerical simulations. One approach for addressing the higher complexity of actual geologic regions is to model the material as an orthorhombic medium. We have developed an explicit time-domain, finite-difference (FD) algorithm for simulating three-dimensional (3D) elastic wave propagation in a heterogeneous orthorhombic medium. The objective of this research is to investigate the errors and biases that result from modeling a non-isotropic medium as an isotropic medium. This is done by computing “observed data” by using synthetic, anisotropic simulations with the assumption of an orthorhombic, anisotropic earth model. Green’s functions for an assumed isotropic earth model are computed and then used an inversion designed to estimate moment tensors with the “observed” data. One specific area of interest is how shear waves, which are introduced in an anisotropic model even for an isotropic explosion, affect the characterization of seismic sources when isotropic earth assumptions are made. This work is done in support of the modeling component of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE), a series of underground chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Bell Creek Test Site: 3-D Seismic and Characterization Report

The Plains CO 2 Reduction (PCOR) Partnership, led by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), is working with Denbury Onshore (Denbury) to evaluate the effectiveness of large-scale injection of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the Bell Creek oil field for CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and to study long-term incidental CO 2 storage. A technical team that includes Denbury, the EERC, and others are conducting activities to determine the baseline reservoir characteristics for development of a geologic model for predictive simulations and to serve as a comparison to time-lapse data as they are acquired. One of the activities was the acquisition and interpretation of a baseline three-dimensional (3-D) surface seismic survey acquired over a major portion of the field which is the subject of this report. The interpretation will be used to advance the field characterization effort. The geophysical data will be integrated with the EERC’s geologic model to improve its accuracy. In the future, when paired with at least one subsequent 3-D surface seismic survey, the data difference will provide a direct indication of where the CO 2 has migrated within the reservoir and aid in monitoring, verification, and accounting goals.

02 PETROLEUM↗

GraphAlign: Graph-Enabled Machine Learning for Seismic Event Filtering

This report summarizes results from a 2 year effort to improve the current automated seismic event processing system by leveraging machine learning models that can operated over the inherent graph data structure of a seismic sensor network. Specifically, the GraphAlign project seeks to utilize prior information on which stations are more likely to detect signals originating from particular geographic regions to inform event filtering. To date, the GraphAlign team has developed a Graphical Neural Network (GNN) model to filter out false events generated by the Global Associator (GA) algorithm. The algorithm operates directly on waveform data that has been associated to an event by building a variable sized graph of station waveforms nodes with edge relations to an event location node. This builds off of previous work where random forest models were used to do the same task using hand crafted features. The GNN model performance was analyzed using an 8 week IMS/IDC dataset, and it was demonstrated that the GNN outperforms the random forest baseline. We provide additional error analysis of which events the GNN model performs well and poorly against concluded by future directions for improvements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

BayesMT: A Probabilistic Bayesian Framework for the Seismic Moment Tensor

Moment tensors (MTs) have long been used in earthquake and explosion source analysis, and there has been a renewed interest in how they can inform us about the seismic source, particularly in the geophysical monitoring community due to its application in event identification and yield analysis. However, parameter uncertainties in seismic MT inversion are rarely available. The inverse procedure often does not quantify MT model errors such as event location, data noise and Earth model that are essential for estimating solution robustness. To address this need, we propose to adopt the Bayesian probabilistic framework to incorporate uncertainties in MT inversions. In this study, we present the theoretical background of a probabilistic Bayesian framework for MT inversion accounting for model and measurements errors and illustrate the implementation of the method using a synthetic example.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Adjoint Waveform Tomography for Next Generation Seismic Analyses and Monitoring

The development of methods and capabilities to compute complete waveform simulations in three-dimensional (3D) Earth models along with adjoint methods for computing the fully 3D sensitivity kernels in the 2000's set the stage for new advances in seismic imaging. I believe that the full benefits of adjoint waveform tomography (AWT) are not yet fully realized and this will be an important direction for the future of seismic tomography.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

5-2428: Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior [Slides]

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better integrate friction constitutive laws for faults to improve our ability to predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites. We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, using lab measurements of friction parameters, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. These simulations will enable exploration of various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Predicting seismic amplitudes with machine learning

The accurate estimation of seismic wave amplitude is vital to precisely determine the yield, magnitude, and event discrimination possible for a given network – a critical element in nuclear explosion monitoring. This task is complicated by several factors, including but not limited to radiation pattern, scattering effects, and crustal variations, which can lead to the attenuation or amplification of amplitude along a given raypath. In this report, we explore the novel application of machine learning to the task of seismic amplitude estimation by training a simple Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on an S-wave amplitude dataset from Lai et al. (2019). Attributes from this dataset used as input to the ANN included event-station distances, station locations (latitude, longitude), event locations (latitude, longitude), event depths, event magnitudes, radiation patterns, signal-to noise ratio (SNR) measurements (average-amplitude, peak-to-trough, maximum peak), and signal periods. We find that the trained ANN predicts S-wave amplitudes with a modest tendency toward underestimating the actual values, as indicated by a linear regression between predicted and actual data (slope: 0.892, intercept: -0.651). These results suggest that an ANN can perform this task, with potential for significant improvements through improved datasets, architectures, and parameter tuning.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Iraq Based on the Updated Earthquake Catalog (1900-2021) and Ground Motion Characteristics

Onur et al. (2017) compiled the first comprehensive earthquake catalog for Iraq, covering 1900 to 2009 within 26°–40°N latitude and 36°–51°E longitude. This catalog was utilized in a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) by Abdulnaby et al. (2020) to aid in updating Iraq’s building code seismic provisions. Recently, we have updated the earthquake catalog for Iraq by adding earthquakes recorded from 2010 to 2021 and directly calculating moment magnitude (Mw) for about 2,800 earthquakes using the coda envelope methodology and waveform data from the Mesopotamian Seismological Network (MPSN) in Iraq.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (CRADA Final Report)

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC ("LLNS"), as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ("LLNL"), The Regents of the University of California, as manager and operator of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Collectively, Contractors) and Nanometrics, Inc. ("Participant"), to develop a toolkit called "Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION)" that includes a decision tree method for operational forecasting of induced seismicity rates related to fluid disposal operations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

FY 2025 End of Year Report: Seismic Monitoring of Underground Vibration Sources using Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) and Seismometers

This end-of-year report summarizes progress on using seismic monitoring to detect, associate, and locate anomalous vibration signals that may indicate potential containment breaches. The work focused on four key tasks: 1. Developing a database of continuous waveforms and ground-truth event data from multiple sensing modalities. 2. Refining and implementing detection and association algorithms to generate a catalog of anomalous underground activities. 3. Testing and improving distributed acoustic sensing amplitude-based geolocation methods to build an event location catalog. 4. Testing and refining seismic array polarization-based geolocation methods to build an event location catalog. This report provides a brief recap of results from the FY25 midyear report (Tasks 1 and 2) and presents new findings from geolocation methods (Tasks 3 and 4).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The propagation of seismic waves, misinformation, and disinformation from the 2024-10-05 M 4.5 Iran earthquake

The 2024-10-05 Iran M 4.5 earthquake took place at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East. We perform a discrimination and moment tensor analysis and identify a shallow-dipping, reverse fault source commensurate with the compressional setting of the Iranian interior. Nonetheless, the event's aftermath saw widespread dissemination of misinformation, and potentially active disinformation, concluding that it was in fact a test of an Iranian nuclear weapon. The 'evidence' for many of these claims was based on inaccurate interpretation of seismic data. In this paper, we analyze how geophysical 'fake news' propagated through social media (mainly Twitter/X) following this event, eventually gaining traction in mainstream, earned media. This event is an illustrative warning of how seismic data can be misinterpreted and/or manipulated in public discourse.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A NEW ANALYSIS OF THE TWO CLASSICAL ZZ CETI WHITE DWARFS GD 165 AND ROSS 548. II. SEISMIC MODELING

We present the second of a two-part seismic analysis of the bright, hot ZZ Ceti stars GD 165 and Ross 548. In this second part, we report the results of detailed searches in parameter space for identifying an optimal model for each star that can account well for the observed periods, while being consistent with the spectroscopic constraints derived in our first paper. We find optimal models for each target that reproduce the six observed periods well within ∼0.3% on the average. We also find that there is a sensitivity on the core composition for Ross 548, while there is practically none for GD 165. Our optimal model of Ross 548, with its thin envelope, indeed shows weight functions for some confined modes that extend relatively deep into the interior, thus explaining the sensitivity of the period spectrum on the core composition in that star. In contrast, our optimal seismic model of its spectroscopic sibling, GD 165 with its thick envelope, does not trap/confine modes very efficiently, and we find weight functions for all six observed modes that do not extend into the deep core, hence accounting for the lack of sensitivity in that case. Furthermore, we exploit after the fact the observed multiplet structure that we ascribe to rotation. We are able to map the rotation profile in GD 165 (Ross 548) over the outermost ∼20% (∼5%) of its radius, and we find that the profile is consistent with solid-body rotation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗