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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Catalyst Ammonia Storage Measurements Using Radio Frequency Sensing1

Motivated by increasingly strict nitrogen oxides (NOx) limits, engine manufacturers have adopted selective catalytic reduction (SCR) technology to reduce engine-out NOx. In the SCR process, NOx react with ammonia (NH3) to form nitrogen and water vapor. The reaction is influenced by several variables, including stored ammonia on the catalyst, exhaust gas composition, and catalyst temperature. Currently, measurements from NOx and/or NH3 sensors upstream and downstream of the SCR are used with predictive models to estimate ammonia storage levels on the catalyst and control urea dosing. This study investigated a radio frequency (RF)-based method to directly monitor the ammonia storage state of the SCR. This approach utilizes the catalyst as a cavity resonator, in which an RF antenna excites electromagnetic waves within the cavity to monitor changes in the catalyst state. Ammonia storage causes changes in the dielectric properties of the catalyst, which directly impacts the RF signal. Changes in the RF signal relative to stored ammonia (NH3) were evaluated over a wide range of frequencies, temperatures, and exhaust conditions. The RF response to NH3 storage, desorption, and oxidation on the SCR was well correlated with changes in the catalyst state. Calibrated RF measurements demonstrate the ability to monitor the adsorption state of the SCR to within 10% of the sensor full scale. The results indicate direct measurement of SCR ammonia storage levels, and resulting catalyst feedback control, via RF sensing to have significant potential for optimizing the SCR system to improve NOx conversion and decrease urea consumption.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-98: Radiogenomics: Correspondence Between Imaging and Genetic Features Based On Clustering Analysis

Purpose: Radiogenomics aims to establish relationships between patient genotypes and imaging phenotypes. An open question remains on how best to integrate information from these distinct datasets. This work investigates if similarities in genetic features across patients correspond to similarities in PET-imaging features, assessed with various clustering algorithms. Methods: [{sup 18}F]FDG PET data was obtained for 26 NSCLC patients from a public database (TCIA). Tumors were contoured using an in-house segmentation algorithm combining gradient and region-growing techniques; resulting ROIs were used to extract 54 PET-based features. Corresponding genetic microarray data containing 48,778 elements were also obtained for each tumor. Given mismatch in feature sizes, two dimension reduction techniques were also applied to the genetic data: principle component analysis (PCA) and selective filtering of 25 NSCLC-associated genes-ofinterest (GOI). Gene datasets (full, PCA, and GOI) and PET feature datasets were independently clustered using K-means and hierarchical clustering using variable number of clusters (K). Jaccard Index (JI) was used to score similarity of cluster assignments across different datasets. Results: Patient clusters from imaging data showed poor similarity to clusters from gene datasets, regardless of clustering algorithms or number of clusters (JI{sub mean}= 0.3429±0.1623). Notably, we found clustering algorithms had different sensitivities to data reduction techniques. Using hierarchical clustering, the PCA dataset showed perfect cluster agreement to the full-gene set (JI =1) for all values of K, and the agreement between the GOI set and the full-gene set decreased as number of clusters increased (JI=0.9231 and 0.5769 for K=2 and 5, respectively). K-means clustering assignments were highly sensitive to data reduction and showed poor stability for different values of K (JI{sub range}: 0.2301–1). Conclusion: Using commonly-used clustering algorithms, we found poor agreement in patient characterization from genomic versus imaging data. Interpretation of radiogenomic associations was found to be dependent on clustering algorithms and sensitive to data reduction techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Matilda v1.0: An R package for probabilistic climate projections using a reduced complexity climate model

A primary advantage to using reduced complexity climate models (RCMs) has been their ability to quickly conduct probabilistic climate projections, a key component of uncertainty quantification in many impact studies and multisector systems. Providing frameworks for such analyses has been a target of several RCMs used in studies of the future co-evolution of the human and Earth systems. In this paper, we present Matilda, an open-science R software package that facilitates probabilistic climate projection analysis, implemented here using the Hector simple climate model in a seamless and easily applied framework. The primary goal of Matilda is to provide the user with a turn-key method to build parameter sets from literature-based prior distributions, run Hector iteratively to produce perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs), weight ensembles for realism against observed historical climate data, and compute probabilistic projections for different climate variables. This workflow gives the user the ability to explore viable parameter space and propagate uncertainty to model ensembles with just a few lines of code. The package provides significant freedom to select different scoring criteria and algorithms to weight ensemble members, as well as the flexibility to implement custom criteria. Additionally, the architecture of the package simplifies the process of building and analyzing PPEs without requiring significant programming expertise, to accommodate diverse use cases. We present a case study that provides illustrative results of a probabilistic analysis of mean global surface temperature as an example of the software application.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Rules-Based Deconfliction of ADMS Applications: Part 1: Requirements & Decomposition

This work introduces a rules-based deconfliction methodology for resolving conflicting device control commands issued by advanced power applications considering a range of technical, economic, environmental, and social objectives. The methodology is designed to serve as one of multiple alternative implementations (along with application cooperation and global optimization) for the numerical component of the Deconfliction Pipeline. Development of the methodology is divided into two parts. This first document introduces the requirements, context, and methods for decomposing the deconfliction problem using the Laminar Coordination Framework and Variable Grid Structures. The deconfliction problem is decomposed into a distributed optimization problem based on the concept of quasi-static grid segments, which form independent distributed areas for control and coordination. Selection of the optimal number of decompositions of the deconfliction problem should be made based on a tradeoff analysis between computational speed and global optimality. This second document will define an initial set of technical, economic, and environmental criteria, as well as thirty specific qualitative rules that are used as part of the deconfliction methodology to eliminate non-viable setpoint alternatives. The deconfliction optimization problem is converted into a ranking of individual discrete setpoints, which are scored by the extent to which they satisfy specific decision criteria. The ranking is determined through the concepts of deconfliction exclusivity, priority, and preference. Several multi-criteria decision-making frameworks are examined with the simple multi-attribute rating technique exploiting ranks (SMARTER) recommended as a simple implementation alternative that aligns with the steps of the rules-based deconfliction methodology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of Principal Component Analysis to Electrochemical Reprocessing PM and NMAC

In this report, data from an electrorefiner (ER) for nuclear fuel reprocessing is evaluated for process monitoring (PM) conclusions. This data comes from tests performed at the Idaho National Laboratory in 2022. Multivariate approaches utilizing methods of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied. This is based off established work in process monitoring for fault detection in industrial facilities. This report will discuss the background, methods, and results of the application and some of the conclusions and applications that can be drawn from them. PCA is applied to two different electrorefiner (ER) operations that occurred at Idaho National Laboratory between August and October 2022. The first operation occurred with little incident while the second had several noted faults in the equipment in operational logs. The data from the first run was used to train the data for “normal” operations and applied to both sets of data to determine when operations were in an “off-normal” condition and identify where the fault occurs through PCA. PCA was able to identify off-normal events and identify the cause for off-normal operations. These identified off-normal events matched with the events and their causes in the operational logs. However, small amounts of variance in the data led to false detection of “off-normal” events. Thus, careful selection of training data and a-posteriori conclusions based off operator assessments will both be required for application of PCA to PM applications. This work demonstrated that multivariate approaches and latent variables are applicable to pyroprocessing PM applications and can be further expanded in future work as quality variables such as salt concentration from sensors and sampling become available.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Optical phased arrays with evanescently-coupled antennas

An optical phased array formed of a large number of nanophotonic antenna elements can be used to project complex images into the far field. These nanophotonic phased arrays, including the nanophotonic antenna elements and waveguides, can be formed on a single chip of silicon using complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) processes. Directional couplers evanescently couple light from the waveguides to the nanophotonic antenna elements, which emit the light as beams with phases and amplitudes selected so that the emitted beams interfere in the far field to produce the desired pattern. In some cases, each antenna in the phased array may be optically coupled to a corresponding variable delay line, such as a thermo-optically tuned waveguide or a liquid-filled cell, which can be used to vary the phase of the antenna's output (and the resulting far-field interference pattern).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

An Optimization Framework for Dynamic Hybrid Energy Systems

A computational framework for the efficient analysis and optimization of dynamic hybrid energy systems (HES) is developed. A microgrid system with multiple inputs and multiple outputs (MIMO) is modeled using the Modelica language in the Dymola environment. The optimization loop is implemented in MATLAB, with the FMI Toolbox serving as the interface between the computational platforms. Two characteristic optimization problems are selected to demonstrate the methodology and gain insight into the system performance. The first is an unconstrained optimization problem that optimizes the dynamic properties of the battery, reactor and generator to minimize variability in the HES. The second problem takes operating and capital costs into consideration by imposing linear and nonlinear constraints on the design variables. The preliminary optimization results obtained in this study provide an essential step towards the development of a comprehensive framework for designing HES.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Λ Baryon Production in ν¯µ Interactions in the MicroBooNE Detector

The Cabibbo suppressed production of $\Lambda$ baryons in anti-neutrino interactions with nuclei is a rare process that is yet to be measured with a modern neutrino detector with automated reconstruction. The cross section for this process is sensitive to a number of unique nuclear effects, most notably the secondary interactions of the produced hyperon while attempting to escape from the nucleus. Other interactions within the nuclear remnant can impact the estimation of neutrino energy in oscillation measurements, and thus an accurate description of the nuclear environment is required. The strangeness violating hyperon production process is only available to anti-neutrinos. The model of this interaction is implemented into the NuWro neutrino interaction Monte Carlo simulation, and some predictions are presented, focusing on the role of nuclear effects. This model introduces a hyperon-nucleus potential, which calculations from hypernuclear theory permit to be strongly repulsive in th e case of $\Sigma$ baryons. The presence of this potential is found to sculpt the shape of the differential cross section in some variables. The MicroBooNE detector will be described, followed by a description of a measurement of the flux averaged, restricted phase space cross section of Cabibbo suppressed $\Lambda$ baryon production. A sophisticated event selection is employed, as a very large quantity of background neutrino interactions must be removed to perform the measurement with any sensitivity. This selection introduces some novel techniques such as the island finding method, and achieves a background reduction of $\sim 10^6$, with an efficiency of around 7\%. The calculation of the systematic uncertainties will be explained, including two procedures explored to handle sources of background with extremely poor simulation statistics: an in-situ constraint using data from sidebands, and a visual inspection of the data and simulation to remove the troublesome background events. The sensitivity to the $\Lambda$ baryon production cross section is calculated in the form of Bayesian posterior probability distributions, combining the systematic uncertainties with data and simulation statistical uncertainties. As a rare process, the statistical uncertainties are highly non-Gaussian, and the Bayesian approach is applied to include the full shapes of these uncertainties. Data corresponding to $2.2 \times 10^{20}$ protons on target of neutrino mode running and $4.9 \times 10^{20}$ protons on target of anti-neutrino running is analysed. When the data was unblinded, five $\Lambda$ production candidates were selected from the data, consistent with the MC simulation prediction of $5.3 \pm 1.1$ events. The final estimated cross section is $1.8^{+2.0}_{-1.6} \times 10^{-40}$cm$^2/$Ar when employing the sideband constraint procedure. A similar result of $2.0^{+2.2}_{-1.8} \times 10^{-40}$cm$^2/$Ar is obtained when performing the visual scan instead. The methods used in t his analysis are intended to be easily exported to other LArTPC detectors such as the Short Baseline Near Detector.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Corn stover variability drives differences in bisabolene production by engineered Rhodotorula toruloides

Microbial conversion of lignocellulosic biomass represents an alternative route for production of biofuels and bioproducts. While researchers have mostly focused on engineering strains such as Rhodotorula toruloides for better bisabolene production as a sustainable aviation fuel, less is known about the impact of the feedstock heterogeneity on bisabolene production. Critical material attributes like feedstock composition, nutritional content, and inhibitory compounds can all influence bioconversion. Further, the given feedstocks can have a marked influence on selection of suitable pretreatment and hydrolysis technologies, optimizing the fermentation conditions, and possibly even modifying the microorganism's metabolic pathways, to better utilize the available feedstock. Here, this work aimed to examine and understand how variations in corn stover batches, anatomical fractions, and storage conditions impact the efficiency of bisabolene production by R. toruloides. All of these represent different facets of feedstock heterogeneity. Deacetylation, mechanical refining, and enzymatic hydrolysis of these variable feedstocks served as the basis of this research. The resulting hydrolysates were converted to bisabolene via fermentation, a sustainable aviation fuel precursor, using an engineered R. toruloides strain. This study showed that different sources of feedstock heterogeneity can influence microbial growth and product titer in counterintuitive ways, as revealed through global analysis of protein expression. The maximum bisabolene produced by R. toruloides was on the stalk fraction of corn stover hydrolysate (8.89 ± 0.47 g/L). Further, proteomics analysis comparing the protein expression between the anatomic fractions showed that proteins relating to carbohydrate metabolism, energy production, and conversion as well as inorganic ion transport metabolism were either significantly upregulated or downregulated. Specifically, downregulation of proteins related to the iron–sulfur cluster in stalk fraction suggests a coordinated response by R. toruloides to maintain overall metabolic balance, and this was corroborated by the concentration of iron in the feedstocks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning assisted rediscovery of methane storage and separation in porous carbon from material literature

Porous carbon (PC) has been widely regarded as one of the most promising absorbents for methane storage. Studies show that its uptake capacity and selectivity highly depend on textural structures. Although much effort has been made, unveiling their detailed structure-performance relationship remains a challenge. Here, we propose an innovative study where, with the assistance of machine learning, the hidden relationship of the textural structures of PC with the methane uptake and separation can be derived from existing data in material literature. Machine learning models were trained by the data, including specific surface area, micropore volume, mesopore volume, temperature, and pressure as the input variables and methane uptake as the output variable for prediction. Among the tested models, the multilayer perceptron (MLP) shows the highest accuracy in predicting the methane uptake. In addition, the model enables to automatically construct a uptake performance map in terms of micropore volume and mesopore volume. The obtained MLP model was also extended to explore the CO 2 /CH 4 selectivity by retraining it with the data collected from literature of PC for the CO 2 uptake. Finally, the constructed 2D selectivity map shows that the high selectivity can be achieved in the low CH 4 uptake region.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Supervised detection of anomalous light curves in massive astronomical catalogs

The development of synoptic sky surveys has led to a massive amount of data for which resources needed for analysis are beyond human capabilities. In order to process this information and to extract all possible knowledge, machine learning techniques become necessary. Here we present a new methodology to automatically discover unknown variable objects in large astronomical catalogs. With the aim of taking full advantage of all information we have about known objects, our method is based on a supervised algorithm. In particular, we train a random forest classifier using known variability classes of objects and obtain votes for each of the objects in the training set. We then model this voting distribution with a Bayesian network and obtain the joint voting distribution among the training objects. Consequently, an unknown object is considered as an outlier insofar it has a low joint probability. By leaving out one of the classes on the training set, we perform a validity test and show that when the random forest classifier attempts to classify unknown light curves (the class left out), it votes with an unusual distribution among the classes. This rare voting is detected by the Bayesian network and expressed as a low joint probability. Our method is suitable for exploring massive data sets given that the training process is performed offline. We tested our algorithm on 20 million light curves from the MACHO catalog and generated a list of anomalous candidates. After analysis, we divided the candidates into two main classes of outliers: artifacts and intrinsic outliers. Artifacts were principally due to air mass variation, seasonal variation, bad calibration, or instrumental errors and were consequently removed from our outlier list and added to the training set. After retraining, we selected about 4000 objects, which we passed to a post-analysis stage by performing a cross-match with all publicly available catalogs. Within these candidates we identified certain known but rare objects such as eclipsing Cepheids, blue variables, cataclysmic variables, and X-ray sources. For some outliers there was no additional information. Among them we identified three unknown variability types and a few individual outliers that will be followed up in order to perform a deeper analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) underlying biomass yield and plant height in switchgrass

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) biomass yield and feedstock quality improvement are priority research areas for bioenergy feedstock development. Identification of quantitative trait loci (QTL) underlying these traits and of trait-linked markers for application in marker-assisted selection (MAS) is of paramount importance in facilitating switchgrass breeding. Detection of QTL for biomass yield and plant height was conducted on parental linkage maps constructed using a heterozygous pseudo-F-1 population derived from a cross between lowland Alamo genotype AP13 and upland Summer genotype VS16. QTL analysis was performed with composite interval mapping. Four QTL for biomass yield and five QTL for plant height were identified using best linear unbiased predictors across ten and eight environments, respectively. The phenotypic variability explained (PVE) by QTL detected in the across environments analysis ranged from 4.9 to 12.4 % for biomass yield and 5.1 to 12.0 % for plant height. A total of 34 and 38 main effect QTL were detected for biomass yield and plant height, respectively, when data from each environment were analyzed separately. The PVE by individual environment QTL ranged from 3.3 to 15.3 % for biomass yield and from 4.3 to 17.4 % for plant height. In addition, 60 and 51 epistatic QTL were detected for biomass yield and plant height, respectively. Significant QTL by environment interactions were detected for QTL mapped in eight genomic regions for each of the two traits. Seven QTL affected both traits and may represent pleiotropic loci. Overall, 11 genomic regions were identified that were important in controlling biomass yield and/or plant height in switchgrass. Furthermore, the markers linked to the main effect and epistatic QTL may be used in MAS to maximize selection gain in switchgrass breeding, leading to a faster development of better biofuel cultivars.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Monoamine oxidase: Radiotracer chemistry and human studies

Monoamine oxidase (MAO) oxidizes amines from both endogenous and exogenous sources thereby regulating the concentration of neurotransmitter amines such as serot onin, norepinephrine and dopamine as well as many xenobiotics. MAO inhibitor drugs are used in the treatment of Parkinson’s disease and in depression stimulating the development of radiotracer tools to probe the role of MAO in normal human biology and in disease. Over the past 30 since the first radiotracers were developed and the first PET images of MAO in humans were carried out, PET studies of brain MAO in healthy volunteers and in patients have identified different variables which have contributed to different MAO levels in brain and in peripheral organs. MAO radiotracers and PET have also been used to study the current and developing MAO inhibitor drugs including the selection of doses for clinical trials. In this article, we describe (1) the development of MAO radiotracers; (2) human studies including the relationship of brain MAO levels to genotype, personality, neurological and psychiatric disorders; (3) examples of the use of MAO radiotracers in drug research and development. We will conclude with outstanding needs to improve the radiotracers which are currently used and possible new applications.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model-independent measurement of the Higgs boson associated production with two jets and decaying to a pair of W bosons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A model-independent measurement of the differential production cross section of the Higgs boson decaying into a pair of W bosons, with a final state including two jets produced in association, is presented. In the analysis, events are selected in which the decay products of the two W bosons consist of an electron, a muon, and missing transverse momentum. The model independence of the measurement is maximized by employing a discriminating variable, developed through machine learning, that is agnostic to the signal hypothesis. The analysis is based on proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV collected with the CMS detector from 2016–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . The production cross section is measured as a function of the difference in azimuthal angle between the two jets. The differential cross section measurements are used to constrain Higgs boson couplings within the standard model effective field theory framework.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗
DOE OSTI2018

Parallel Integration and Chromosomal Expansion of Metabolic Pathways

Robust fermentation of biomass-derived sugars into bioproducts demands the reliable microbial expression of metabolic pathways. Plasmid-based expression systems may suffer from instability and result in highly variable titers, rates, and yields. An established mitigation approach, Chemical Induced Chromosomal Expansion (CIChE), expands a singly integrated pathway to plasmid-like copy numbers, while maintaining stability in the absence of antibiotic selection pressure. Here, we report Parallel Integration and Chromosomal Expansion (PIACE), extensions to CIChE that enable independent expansions of pathway components across multiple loci, use suicide vectors to achieve high-efficiency site-specific integration of sequence-validated multi-gene components, and introduce a heat-curable plasmid to obviate recA deletion post pathway expansion. We applied PIACE to stabilize an isopentenol pathway across three loci in E. coli DH1, and to then generate libraries of pathway component copy-number variants to screen for improved titers. Furthermore, polynomial regressor statistical modeling of the production screening data suggests that increasing copy numbers of all isopentenol pathway components would further improve titers.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anticathode effect on multimodal azimuthal oscillations in electron beam generated E×B plasma

Electron beam (e-beam) generated plasmas with applied crossed electric and magnetic (⁠E x B⁠) fields are promising for low-damage (gentle) material processing. However, these plasmas can be subject to the formation of plasma non-uniformities propagating in the ⁠E x B direction. These rotating plasma structures (or “spokes”) enhance the transport of charged species across the magnetic field, which can harm the gentle processing capability of the plasma. In this work, we investigate the role of electrostatically active boundaries on the spoke formation by incorporating a variable bias conducting boundary (known as an anticathode) placed on the axially opposite side of the cathode. Our findings indicate azimuthal mode suppression occurs when the anticathode is electron collecting. Furthermore, we show selective azimuthal mode suppression by biasing the anticathode to an intermediate potential between the cathode and anode potentials. In conclusion, these findings suggest a link between the axial electron confinement in the e-beam generated plasma and azimuthally propagating plasma structure formation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Achieving 5,000-h and 8,000-h Low-PGM Electrode Durability on Automotive Drive Cycles

Whereas total Pt loading in anode and cathode catalysts below 0.125 mg cm −2 is required to meet the stringent cost target for automotive fuel cell systems (FCS) for light duty vehicles, low-loaded cathode catalysts are susceptible to unacceptable aging-related performance losses at high current densities. A framework model, validated by accelerated stress test data, has identified cell voltage, relative humidity (RH) and temperature as the key operating variables that affect degradation of a high-activity d-PtCo/C cathode catalyst with 0.1 mg cm −2 Pt loading. Drive cycle simulations indicate that these can be controlled by properly selecting the minimum FCS power, compressor-expander module (CEM) turndown, and stack coolant temperature. The optimum system parameters are 4-kW e minimum power for an 80-kW e FCS, CEM turndown of 12.5, and 66 °C average coolant exit temperature that combine to limit the maximum cell voltage to 850 mV and outlet RH to 90%–100%. Depending on Pt loading, the mismatch between actual and allowable degradation for 10% power loss over 5,000-h lifetime requires the stack to be oversized by 2.4%–5%, resulting in 8.4%–41% lower Pt utilization and 7.1%–20.5% penalty in stack cost. The corresponding results for 8,000-h lifetime are 10.3%-14% stack oversizing, 23%–51.8% lower Pt utilization, and 24.1%–35.4% stack cost penalty.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interseasonal Connections between the Timing of the Stratospheric Final Warming and Arctic Sea Ice

Connections across seasons in atmospheric circulation and sea ice have long been sought to advance seasonal prediction. This study presents a link between the springtime stratosphere and Arctic sea ice in summer through autumn. The polar stratospheric vortex dominates the winter stratosphere before breaking down each spring, which is called the stratospheric final warming, as solar radiation returns to the pole. Interannual variability of this breakdown is dynamically driven, leading to different springtime tropospheric and surface circulation patterns. To examine the different impacts of delayed and early final warmings, a multimodel composite was generated from selected CMIP5 models. Additionally, regressions were performed on JRA-55 against an index of springtime polar vortex strength. In both the multimodel composites and reanalysis regressions, significant anomalies in sea ice thickness persist several months following an anomalous timing of the final warming. A later final warming or stronger springtime polar stratospheric vortex leads to negative sea ice thickness anomalies in the East Siberian Sea and positive anomalies in the Beaufort Sea in comparison with an earlier final warming or weaker polar vortex. The spring polar stratospheric vortex is related to spring polar surface circulation patterns. The winds associated with this pattern induce anomalous sea ice motion, moving ice from the East Siberian Sea toward the Beaufort Sea. Reduced sea ice in the East Siberian Sea is linked to anomalous warmth over this region in autumn. Our results suggest that the timing of the stratospheric final warming exerts an influence on the tropospheric circulation and sea ice through autumn, which has implications for seasonal climate prediction.

Kelleher, Michael↗