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At least 883 records · Page 49

Quantifying the Opportunity Limits of Automatic Residential Electric Load Shaping

Electric utility residential demand response programs typically reduce load a few times a year during periods of peak energy use. In the future, utilities and consumers may monetarily and environmentally benefit from continuously shaping load by alternatively encouraging or discouraging the use of electricity. One way to shape load and introduce elasticity is to broadcast forecasts of dynamic electricity prices that orchestrate electricity supply and demand in order to maximize the efficiency of conventional generation and the use of renewable resources including wind and solar energy. A binary control algorithm that influences the on and off states of end uses was developed and applied to empirical time series data to estimate price-based instantaneous opportunities for shedding and adding electric load. To overcome the limitations of traditional stochastic methods in quantifying diverse, non-Gaussian, non-stationary distributions of observed appliance behaviour, recent developments in wavelet-based analysis were applied to capture and simulate time-frequency domain behaviour. The performance of autoregressive and spectral reconstruction methods was compared, with phase reconstruction providing the best simulation ensembles. Results show spatiotemporal differences in the amount of load that can be shed and added, which suggest further investigation is warranted in estimating the benefits anticipated from the wide-scale deployment of continuous automatic residential load shaping. Empirical data and documented software code are included to assist in reproducing and extending this work.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Time-varying value of electric energy efficiency

Electric energy efficiency resources save energy and may reduce peak demand. Historically, quantification of energy efficiency benefits has largely focused on the economic value of energy savings during the first year and lifetime of the installed measures. Due in part to the lack of publicly available research on end-use load shapes (i.e., the hourly or seasonal timing of electricity savings) and energy savings shapes, consideration of the impact of energy efficiency on peak demand reduction (i.e., capacity savings) has been more limited. End-use load research and the hourly valuation of efficiency savings are used for a variety of electricity planning functions, including load forecasting, demand-side management and evaluation, capacity and demand response planning, long-term resource planning, renewable energy integration, assessing potential grid modernization investments, establishing rates and pricing, and customer service. This study reviews existing literature on the time-varying value of energy efficiency savings, provides examples in four geographically diverse locations of how consideration of the time-varying value of efficiency savings impacts the calculation of power system benefits, and identifies future research needs to enhance the consideration of the time-varying value of energy efficiency in cost-effectiveness screening analysis. Findings from this study include: -The time-varying value of individual energy efficiency measures varies across the locations studied because of the physical and operational characteristics of the individual utility system (e.g., summer or winter peaking, load factor, reserve margin) as well as the time periods during which savings from measures occur. -Across the four locations studied, some of the largest capacity benefits from energy efficiency are derived from the deferral of transmission and distribution system infrastructure upgrades. However, the deferred cost of such upgrades also exhibited the greatest range in value of all the components of avoided costs across the locations studied. -Of the five energy efficiency measures studied, those targeting residential air conditioning in summer-peaking electric systems have the most significant added value when the total time-varying value is considered. -The increased use of rooftop solar systems, storage, and demand response, and the addition of electric vehicles and other major new electricity-consuming end uses are anticipated to significantly alter the load shape of many utility systems in the future. Data used to estimate the impact of energy efficiency measures on electric system peak demands will need to be updated periodically to accurately reflect the value of savings as system load shapes change. -Publicly available components of electric system costs avoided through energy efficiency are not uniform across states and utilities. Inclusion or exclusion of these components and differences in their value affect estimates of the time-varying value of energy efficiency. -Publicly available data on end-use load and energy savings shapes are limited, are concentrated regionally, and should be expanded.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Water-Energy Considerations in California’s Agricultural Sector and Opportunities to Provide Flexibility to California’s Grid

Water and energy use on farms are deeply linked, and trends changing the way water is used on farms have implications for the electrical grid, and vice versa. In 2014, California’s agricultural sector accounted for approximately 80% of the state’s water consumption and 5% of its electricity use. The majority of the electricity was for surface conveyance and groundwater pumping. Diminishing surface water availability and increasing reliance on groundwater pumping are likely to increase future energy demand. These trends are coincident with farms embracing new precision irrigation technologies that increase water productivity and crop yield, but may have the potential of other collateral effects, such as increasing energy intensity of irrigation and total electricity use, and thus demand on the grid. The impacts of these technologies and their loads on the electrical grid have been explored only to a limited degree, and the potential grid benefits afforded by these technologies have been studied even less. For example, studies show that California’s increasing adoption of renewable electricity may result in excess generation during certain periods of the day, and that responsive load management (i.e. demand response) may be a cost-effective method to shift loads to utilize this excess generation. The degree to which farms in California do or can provide responsive loads has not been explored. In this paper, we explore whether farms that are adopting technologies and automation for irrigation management can provide co-benefits to the grower and the electrical grid. To do so, we define the characteristics of future grid needs specifically related to responsive load management, explore existing market mechanisms and policies for proving those resources, estimate the temporal distribution of energy use for irrigation in California, and develop scenarios of how irrigation loads might meet these needs. We conclude by exploring potential ancillary service benefits and associated revenues that California’s agricultural industry may provide. Ancillary services include using loads to dynamically adjust demand on the system to alleviate short-run ramps and disturbances at timescales ranging from seconds up to an hour. With higher penetrations of renewable resources, larger quantities of ancillary services will be necessary and may become more valuable to the grid than traditional demand response. Ancillary services from agricultural loads is a nascent topic, and no such analysis has been conducted to quantify its benefits to our knowledge.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analysis of Exercise Loads to Inform Vibration Isolation System Design

BACKGROUND: This study was conducted with the primary interest of providing data that would inform Vibration Isolation and Stabilization (VIS) system design and performance for the European Enhanced Exploration Exercise Device (E4D). In preparation for the International Space Station (ISS) in-flight demonstration, a list of critical Human Health Countermeasures (HHC) exercises was compiled [1]. The goal of this study was to assess the ground reaction forces and moments imposed by an exercising subject in each of the six VIS Degrees of Freedom (DOFs) during a comprehensive set of these critical exercises performed on the E4D. METHODS AND RESULTS: The ISS in-flight demonstration list of critical exercises included seated aerobic rowing, bent-over rowing, cycling, front squats, back squats, conventional deadlifts, Romanian deadlifts, heel raises, overhead presses, reverse chops, and power clean presses. At the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) Prototype Immersive Technology (PIT) laboratory, motion capture data were collected on critical E4D exercises for six subjects. At the NASA JSC Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) facility, additional motion capture and load cell data were collected on offloaded trials for four subjects. Select data were extrapolated to represent a 5th percentile female subject and a 95th percentile male subject. A previous investigation comparing the forces obtained from the load cell and from motion capture based data found a satisfactory level of agreement between the two measurements [2]. The motion capture based data were analyzed for this study since it is driven by the subject’s trajectory alone, automatically excluding any forces exerted on the subject by the ARGOS offloading harness. The OpenSim [3, 4] biomechanical simulation inverse kinematics tool was used to calculate the joint angles based on the locations of motion capture markers placed at key positions on the subject’s body. An OpenSim plugin was then used to obtain the forces and moments generated by the subject during each trial, with the moments computed relative to the equilibrium location of the subject’s feet [5]. The force of gravity was also removed to simulate the loads generated by the exercise when performed in microgravity. The load plots for each trial were generated and visually analyzed to obtain the magnitudes of the peak loads for each exercise in each DOF. The typical period of exercise for each trial was also estimated and used to calculate the frequency for each trial. The exercise loads data was then organized in multiple ways to capture different aspects of the data. As a result of this study, we present a summary of the load magnitudes observed during these critical exercises utilizing the E4D.

C A Bell↗

Failure Assessments for MQXF Magnet Support Structure with a Graded Approach

The High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HLLHC) upgrade requires new quadrupoles, MQXF, to replace the present LHC inner triplets. The MQXFA magnet is the first prototype that has a 150 mm aperture and uses Nb 3 Sn superconducting technology in a 4.2 m magnetic length structure. The support structure design of the MQXFA magnet is based on the bladder-and-key technology, where a relatively low pre-stress at room temperature is increased to the final preload targets during the cool-down by the differential thermal contraction of the various components. The magnet support structure components experience different load levels from pre-load to cool-down and excitation. Consequently, a few parts experience high stresses that may cause localized plastic deformations or internal fracture development. The concept presented in this paper for the failure assessment of support structures integrates nonlinear finite element analysis with detailed sub-models and fracture mechanics into an advanced engineering tool. The nonlinear FE solutions enable estimations of the structural response to the given loads, and the advanced fracture analysis with failure assessment diagram (FAD) assesses the structure safety index of results obtained from the FE model. The study describes how the MQXFA shell end segments are being optimized based on the failure analyses.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Modeling Exhaust-Generated Aerodynamic Pressure Loads on Airfield Matting Repair Systems

Airfield matting systems are commonly used for rapid repair of damaged runways to facilitate continuity of critical operations. Under normal service conditions, matting repair systems are subject not only to wheel loads exerted by airfield traffic but also to aerodynamic pressure loads resulting from high-speed, turbulent exhaust plumes produced by jets during taxi and take-off. Matting systems employed by the U.S. Air Force have been tested with respect to wheel loads, but probabilities of failure because of pressure loads produced by jet exhaust have not yet been established. This study presents a numerical approach for preliminary estimation of worst-case matting anchor forces resulting from exhaust-generated pressure loads. Using a two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics model, system behavior is evaluated by means of a parametric study of six system variables, of which the most significant are: (1) distance between engine and matting, (2) depth of cavity openings at matting edges, and (3) engine exhaust velocity. The results demonstrate that matting systems are likely to experience net uplift in typical service scenarios, driven by the combined effects of flow separation and cavity pressurization. Worst-case anchor pull-out forces, computed according to a tributary-area approach, are estimated to fall in the range of 130 lb (581 N) to 979 lb (4,350 N), depending on assumed load-sharing behavior among anchors and the size of the repair site. Field testing of instrumented matting systems during jet taxi and take-off sequences is recommended as the best next step toward understanding system behavior.

Engineering↗

Limit pressure of a circumferentially reinforced SiC/Ti ring

Limit loads under plane stress and plane strain are found for a circumferentially reinforced elastoplastic ring subjected to interior pressure. These are used as bounds on an estimate of the failure pressure of a SiC/Ti test rig that is being fabricated and tested. The ring is to serve as a benchmark against which deformation and failure analysis methods can be assessed. An anisotropic perfect plasticity idealization of the SiC/Ti ring material is made and used in the limit load calculations. An estimate of the failure pressure of the NASA/PW benchmark test ring is given.

Robinson, D. N.↗

Limit pressure of a circumferentially reinforced SiC/Ti ring

Limit loads under plane stress and plane strain are found for a circumferentially reinforced elastoplastic ring subjected to interior pressure. These are used as bounds on an estimate of the failure pressure of a SiC/Ti test rig that is being fabricated and tested. The ring is to serve as a benchmark against which deformation and failure analysis methods can be assessed. An anisotropic perfect plasticity idealization of the SiC/Ti ring material is made and used in the limit load calculations. An estimate of the failure pressure of the NASA/PW benchmark test ring is given.

Robinson, D. N.↗

Horizontal stress in planetary lithospheres from vertical processes

Understanding the stress states in a lithosphere is of fundamental importance for planetary geophysics. It is closely linked to the processes which form and modify tectonic features on the surface and reflects the behavior of the planet's interior, providing a constraint for the difficult problem of determining interior structure and processes. The tectonics on many extraterrestrial bodies (Moon, Mars, and most of the outer planet satellites) appears to be mostly vertical, and the horizontal stresses induced by vertical motions and loads are expected to dominate the deformation of their lithospheres. Herein, only changes are examined in the state of stress induced by processes such as sedimentary and volcanic deposition, erosional denudation, and changes in the thermal gradient that induce uplift or subsidence. This analysis is important both for evaluating stresses for specific regions in which the vertical stress history can be estimated, as well as for applying the proper loading conditions to global stress models. All references to lithosphere herein should be understood to refer to the elastic lithosphere, that layer which deforms elastically or brittlely when subjected to geologically scaled stresses.

Banerdt, W. B.↗

Multi-Edge Graph Convolutional Networks for Power Systems

The exponential electrification of transportation has contributed to highly intermittent load variations in the distribution grid. This uncertainty has raised challenges for distribution system operation and control. Accurate nodal voltage estimation is highly essential for the safe and reliable operation of the grid. Graph convolutional networks have been used in machine-learning-based models for power grid applications like voltage estimation for their ability to capture the network topology of the grid. This paper presents a novel multi-edge graph convolutional layer that considers resistance and reactance as edge attributes. This layer is created by modifying the message-passing function within the graph convolutional network. The novel layer is then used to create a multi-edge graph convolutional network-based surrogate model for estimating voltage in the distribution network with highly uncertain electric vehicle loads. Results indicate improved performance of the multi-edge graph convolutional network model when compared to a standard graph convolutional network model.

Ravi, Abhijith↗

Structural Requirements and Scaling Analysis of a Fluidic Mirror Space Telescope Support Structure

The NASA FLUTE project proposes large-scale (50m) fluidic telescopes for astronomy applications. To continue to explore the universe, astronomers require larger and larger telescope apertures. The highest priority astrophysics targets such as exoplanets and early galaxies are extremely faint, motivating larger telescope apertures. However, mission costs depend on aperture diameter, and scaling apertures beyond 10-m apertures faces economic and technological viability challenges. An unsegmented primary mirror made in space via fluidic microgravity shaping would provide a scalable and cost-effective method to scale apertures to 50-m scale while achieving sub-nanometer (root mean square) surface quality. Such microgravity fluidic shaping has been demonstrated in laboratory neutral buoyance environments, parabolic microgravity experiments, as well aboard the International Space Station. One of the main components of a fluidic observatory is the mirror frame. The frame must provide a stable bounding circular ring which the edges of the fluid mirror surface can wet. The frame can optionally provide a ‘floor’ surface on the interior of the ring to provide additional fluid support and reduce required fluid volume. In this work, we evaluate several classes of structural frame architectures potentially suitable for a fluidic telescope support structure. We start by estimating stability requirements, orbital, station keeping, and slew loads based on a notional CONOPS. The scaling of overall fluid mass required for each architecture is evaluated. Preliminary results elucidate the importance of a support floor for overall mission viability above 10-m diameter. We then investigate the scaling of a tetrahedral truss frame support structure. We show that segmented solid shell support surfaces can provide sufficient stability at modest mass fractions. We estimate that the total fluid and frame mass for a 50-m telescope could be on the order of 15,000 kg. Finally, implementation considerations are discussed, including deployment/assembly methodologies. The results of this study establish feasibility of a large-scale fluidic telescope and will guide further architecture development and detailed structural design.

Christine Gregg↗

Lifetime Reliability Evaluation of Structural Ceramic Parts with the CARES/LIFE Computer Program

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), Weibull's normal stress averaging method (NSA), or Batdorf's theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Two example problems demonstrating cyclic fatigue parameter estimation and component reliability analysis with proof testing are included.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

A Comparison of PV Resource Modeling for Sizing Microgrid Components

Microgrid systems are being deployed with increased frequency to meet critical building loads during unplanned power outages. Determining the appropriate type and size of components that make up a microgrid can greatly affect its ability to meet this need. This paper presents a new tool to appropriately size PV, battery, and generator capacities to meet all site loads, given a resilience goal. It uses a statistical model to simulate microgrid behavior under a large range of solar resource conditions, providing resilience planners with confidence that critical loads will be met even under extreme weather conditions. We compare this model with one that uses typical weather data for sizing microgrids, and quantify the resilience effects of using these different methods. Our method produces more conservative generator capacities and fuel requirements in an outage, predicting up to 30% more fuel required in the most extreme case. Microgrid systems that are designed using more conservative estimates are more likely to continue to serve load during emergency outages under a large range of conditions.

Newman, Sarah F.↗

Critical wind speeds suggest wind could be an important disturbance agent in Amazonian forests

Abstract Recent research in the central Amazon suggests that wind is a major agent of disturbance, however, a mechanistic understanding of how wind may lead to tree mortality in Amazonian forests remains unclear. Here we estimated wind speeds necessary to topple central Amazon trees by linking both static and dynamic versions of two wind speed estimation methods (four methods total) to field data on tree failure derived from a static winching study. Static versions of these methods assumed invariant wind characteristics as more trees failed, while dynamic versions updated tree spacing, leaf area index and wind profiles progressively after each tree failure. First, we used a profile method which estimates wind force on individual trees by segments. We calculated drag on each segment and converted drag into basal turning moment, and compared the summed turning moments to the critical turning moment measured in the winching study. Estimated critical wind speeds from the static profile method varied greatly, from 10.75 m s−1 to >120.0 m s−1 with a mean of 45.70 m s−1. Critical wind speeds estimated with static approaches decreased with tree size but were not significantly different between two focal genera. Primary drivers of variation in critical wind speed were tree height and crown size. Second, we used the turning moment coefficient method of Hale, S.E., Gardiner, B., Peace, A., Nicoll, B., Taylor, P. and Pizzirani, S. 2015 Comparison and validation of three versions of a forest wind risk model. Environ. Model. Softw.68, 27–41. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.01.016.; the static version of this method yielded less-variable estimates, ranging from 18.98 to 52.01 m s−1, with a mean of 30.88 m s−1. Notably, the two static methods for estimating critical wind speeds differed in the trees they identified as having the highest and lowest critical wind speeds. Dynamic variants of the above two methods produced greatly reduced ranges in CWS estimates for our study trees, because after the early tree failures, remaining trees were subject to greater wind penetration into the stand and thus greater loading for a given above-canopy wind speed. CWS estimated with dynamic approaches differed significantly between the focal taxa. Nevertheless, both estimates suggest that wind speeds commonly observed during Amazon storms are sufficient to produce widespread tree damage and mortality.

Peterson, Chris J.↗

An alpha particle measurement system using an energetic neutral helium beam in ITER (invited)

An energetic helium neutral beam is involved in the beam neutralization measurement system of alpha particles confined in a DT fusion plasma. A full size strong-focusing He{sup +} ion source (2 A, the beam radius of 11.3 mm, the beam energy less than 20 keV). Present strong-focusing He{sup +} ion source shows an emittance diagram separated for each beamlet of multiple apertures without phase space mixing, despite the space charge of a beamlet is asymmetric and the beam flow is non-laminar. The emittance of beamlets in the peripheral region was larger than that of center. The heat load to the plasma electrode was studied to estimate the duty factor for the ITER application.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Horizontal stresses induced by vertical processes in planetary lithospheres

Understanding the state of stress in the elastic lithosphere is of fundamental importance for planetary geophysics, as it is the link between the observed geologic structures on the surface and the processes which form and modify these structures. As such, it can provide valuable constraints for the difficult problem of determining interior structure and processes. On the Earth, most large scale, organized deformation can be related to lateral tectonics associated with plate dynamics; however, the tectonics on many extraterrestrial bodies (such as the Moon, Mars, and most of the outer-planet satellites) appears to be primarily vertical in nature, and the horizontal stresses induced by vertical motions and loads are expected to dominate the deformation of their lithospheres. The largest stress contributions from vertical loading come from the flexure of the lithosphere, which induces both bending moments and membrane stresses. We are concerned here only with nonflexural changes in the state of stress induced by processes such as sedimentary and volcanic deposition, erosional denudation, and changes in the thermal gradient that induce uplift or subsidence. This analysis is important both for evaluating stresses for specific regions in which the vertical stress history can be estimated, as well as for applying the proper loading conditions to global stress models. It is also of interest for providing a reference state of stress for interpreting stress measurements in the crust of the Earth.

Banerdt, W. B.↗

Vanishing dynamic strength measured in a transient high-pressure phase of tin

This work reports two independent experimental estimations of the dynamic strength of the body-centered tetragonal (bct) 𝛾 phase of tin, which occurs at pressures above about 9 GPa and transforms promptly back to the ambient 𝛽 phase upon pressure release. Measuring strength in such a transient high-pressure phase is challenging. One measurement used free-surface Richtmyer-Meshkov instabilities generated with gas gun impact. Another set of measurements used ramp-release loading in a pulsed-power facility. Strength estimations came from comparison to simulations using a comprehensive multiphase modeling framework that includes equation of state, shear moduli, and strength separately for each phase, and treats mixed-phase regions. Both experimental methods found the 𝛾-phase strength to be very low, within experimental uncertainty of zero. The existing literature on other materials, by contrast, almost universally reports higher strength in transient high-pressure phases compared with ambient phases. Recent Molecular-Dynamics simulations on tin in the literature showed almost zero deviatoric strength during a deformation-induced bct → bct transformation in which one of the 𝛾-phase 𝑎 axes “flips” to the 𝑐 axis. This reorientation currently provides the most plausible explanation for the low observed strength in 𝛾-phase tin.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗