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At least 883 records · Page 49

Recursive Branching Simulated Annealing Algorithm

This innovation is a variation of a simulated-annealing optimization algorithm that uses a recursive-branching structure to parallelize the search of a parameter space for the globally optimal solution to an objective. The algorithm has been demonstrated to be more effective at searching a parameter space than traditional simulated-annealing methods for a particular problem of interest, and it can readily be applied to a wide variety of optimization problems, including those with a parameter space having both discrete-value parameters (combinatorial) and continuous-variable parameters. It can take the place of a conventional simulated- annealing, Monte-Carlo, or random- walk algorithm. In a conventional simulated-annealing (SA) algorithm, a starting configuration is randomly selected within the parameter space. The algorithm randomly selects another configuration from the parameter space and evaluates the objective function for that configuration. If the objective function value is better than the previous value, the new configuration is adopted as the new point of interest in the parameter space. If the objective function value is worse than the previous value, the new configuration may be adopted, with a probability determined by a temperature parameter, used in analogy to annealing in metals. As the optimization continues, the region of the parameter space from which new configurations can be selected shrinks, and in conjunction with lowering the annealing temperature (and thus lowering the probability for adopting configurations in parameter space with worse objective functions), the algorithm can converge on the globally optimal configuration. The Recursive Branching Simulated Annealing (RBSA) algorithm shares some features with the SA algorithm, notably including the basic principles that a starting configuration is randomly selected from within the parameter space, the algorithm tests other configurations with the goal of finding the globally optimal solution, and the region from which new configurations can be selected shrinks as the search continues. The key difference between these algorithms is that in the SA algorithm, a single path, or trajectory, is taken in parameter space, from the starting point to the globally optimal solution, while in the RBSA algorithm, many trajectories are taken; by exploring multiple regions of the parameter space simultaneously, the algorithm has been shown to converge on the globally optimal solution about an order of magnitude faster than when using conventional algorithms. Novel features of the RBSA algorithm include: 1. More efficient searching of the parameter space due to the branching structure, in which multiple random configurations are generated and multiple promising regions of the parameter space are explored; 2. The implementation of a trust region for each parameter in the parameter space, which provides a natural way of enforcing upper- and lower-bound constraints on the parameters; and 3. The optional use of a constrained gradient- search optimization, performed on the continuous variables around each branch s configuration in parameter space to improve search efficiency by allowing for fast fine-tuning of the continuous variables within the trust region at that configuration point.

Bolcar, Matthew↗

MODELING OF THE NON-GAUSSIAN PDFs OF FIELD VARIATIONS AND INTERMITTENCY IN THE TURBULENT SOLAR WIND

The probability distribution functions (PDFs) of magnetic field variations display strong scale-dependent non-Gaussianity in the turbulent solar wind. This is a typical signature of intermittent turbulence. Physical modeling of the turbulent field variations based on the characteristics of the observed turbulence, including the variability of its power level, produces, free of parameter adjustment and over a broad range of inertial scales, accurate fits of the non-Gaussian PDFs. The effects of phase randomization and time resolution of the Fourier power spectra are further tested to determine which of the phase correlation or the spectral variability is responsible for the strong non-Gaussianity of the observed PDFs of field variations. The periods of enhanced power level are found to be responsible for the non-Gaussian tails of the PDFs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Vlcek, Brian L.↗

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Vlcek, Brian L.↗

CAL 83 - A puzzling X-ray source in the Large Magellanic Cloud

Spectroscopic observations of the X-ray point source no. 83 in the Columbia Astrophysics Laboratory Einstein survey of the Large Magellanic Cloud have been accumulated over 4 yr. The optical spectrum shows no stellar absorption features, but only emission lines typical of an accretion disk. Radial velocity measurements reveal a small (K = 30 km/s) velocity variation modulated at 0.93 d, which appears to be the orbital period. No strong constraints can be put on the mass of the collapsed object, but its companion must be a low-mass, evolved star. Evidence for a precessing disk with a possible period of 69 days is presented. Exosat X-ray observations reveal no short-term (less than 6 hr) periodicities, although erratic, random variations were observed. The X-ray spectrum is very soft, reminiscent of some of the candidate black-hole sources. IUE ultraviolet spectra show only weak emission lines of N V and He II. The UV flux is variable with a mean effective temperature of about 19,000 K. Optical B, V photometry during November 1985 showed random variations of about 0.2 mag with a mean V = 17.3 mag.

Crampton, David↗

Peak Rain Rate Sensitivity to Observed Cloud Condensation Nuclei and Turbulence in Continental Warm Shallow Clouds During CACTI

Abstract Warm clouds strongly affect Earth's energy budget but remain imperfectly represented in climate models, partly due to the complexity and covariability of relevant processes influencing warm rain. This work presents a detailed analysis of different factors affecting rain rate peak intensity (RR) in continental warm clouds. Clouds were identified with vertically pointing radar and lidar observations and categorized via a temperature‐based cloud type classification algorithm from which warm clouds were isolated. Observations and retrievals of liquid water path (LWP), cloud condensation nuclei concentration (N CCN ), cloud depth, and cloud duration of more than 3,000 separate warm clouds sampled during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign are analyzed in this work. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) models are applied to assess the relative impact of these variables on RR. Overall, RR tends to increase as cloud depth, LWP, and cloud duration increase, or N CCN decreases. Cloud depth affects RR the most while N CCN impacts it the least. When considering over 170 warm clouds observed at least 1 hr in which in‐cloud turbulence is retrieved, the effect of N CCN on RR remains most likely suppressive, but it is not significant at a 75% level for MLR and is highly uncertain for RF. The impact of in‐cloud turbulence depends on the moment and location it is sampled. Cloud base turbulence around the time of RR suppresses RR, while cloud top turbulence effects are inconclusive. Possible difficulties in isolating robust CCN and turbulence effects on RR are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The active CGCG 077-102 NED02 galaxy within the Abell 2063 galaxy cluster

Context.Within the framework of investigating the link between the central super massive black holes in the cores of galaxies and the galaxies themselves, we detected a variable X-ray source in the center of CGCG 077-102 NED02, which is a member of the CGCG 077-102 galaxy pair within the Abell 2063 cluster of galaxies. Aims.Our goal is to combine X-ray and optical data to demonstrate that this object harbors an active super massive black hole in its core, and to relate this to the dynamical status of the galaxy pair within the Abell 2063 cluster. Methods.We usedChandraandXMM-Newtonarchival data to derive the X-ray spectral shape and variability. We also obtained optical spectroscopy to detect the expected emission lines that are typically found in active galactic nuclei. Finally, we used public ZTF imaging data to investigate the optical variability. Results.There is no evidence of multiple X-ray sources or extended components within CGCG 077-102 NED02. Single X-ray spectral models fit the source well. We detect significant, nonrandom inter-observation 0.5–10 keV X-ray flux variabilities, for observations separated by ∼4 days for short-term variations and by up to ∼700 days for long-term variations. Optical spectroscopy points toward a passive galaxy for CGCG 077-102 NED01 and a Seyfert for CGCG 077-102 NED02. The classification of CGCG 077-102 NED02 is also consistent with its X-ray luminosity of over 10 42 erg s −1 . We do not detect short-term variability in the optical ZTF light curves. However, we find a significant long-term stochastic variability in theg-band that can be well described by the damped random walk model with a best-fit characteristic damping timescale ofτ DRW = 30 −12 +28 days. Finally, the CGCG 077-102 galaxy pair is deeply embedded within the Abell 2063 potential, with a long enough history within this massive structure to have been affected by the influence of this cluster for a long time. Conclusions.Our observations point toward a moderately massive black hole in the center of CGCG 077-102 NED02 of ∼10 6 M ⊙ . As compared to another similar pair in the literature, CGCG 077-102 NED02 is not heavily obscured, perhaps because of the surrounding intracluster medium ram-pressure stripping.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Efficient Decision Trees for Tensor Regressions

Here, we proposed the tensor-input tree (TT) method for scalar-on-tensor and tensor-on-tensor regression problems. We first address scalar-on-tensor problem by proposing scalar-output regression tree models whose input variables are tensors (i.e., multi-way arrays). We devised and implemented fast randomized and deterministic algorithms for efficient fitting of scalar-on-tensor trees, making TT competitive against tensor-input GP models (Yu, Li, and Liu; Sun et al.). Based on scalar-on-tensor tree models, we extend our method to tensor-on-tensor problems using additive tree ensemble approaches. Theoretical justification and extensive experiments, including testing robustness to entrywise input tensor noise, are provided on real and synthetic datasets to illustrate the performance of TT. Our implementation is provided at https://github.com/hrluo/TensorDecisionTreeRegressor. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Decision tree regressions↗

A NEW METHOD FOR MEASURING EXTRAGALACTIC DISTANCES

We have pioneered a new method for the measurement of extragalactic distances. This method uses the time lag between variations in the short wavelength and long wavelength light from an active galactic nucleus (AGN), based on a quantitative physical model of dust reverberation that relates the time lag to the absolute luminosity of the AGN. We use the large homogeneous data set from intensive monitoring observations in optical and near-infrared wavelength bands with the dedicated 2 m MAGNUM telescope to obtain the distances to 17 AGNs in the redshift range z = 0.0024 to z = 0.0353. These distance measurements are compared with distances measured using Cepheid variable stars, and are used to infer that H {sub 0} = 73 ± 3 (random) km s{sup –1} Mpc{sup –1}. The systematic error in H {sub 0} is examined, and the uncertainty in the size distribution of dust grains is the largest source of the systematic error, which is much reduced for a sample of AGNs for which their parameter values in the model of dust reverberation are individually measured. This AGN time lag method can be used beyond 30 Mpc, the farthest distance reached by extragalactic Cepheids, and can be extended to high-redshift quasi-stellar objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Dominant Influencer of Voltage Fluctuation (DIVF) for Power Distribution System

Variability in power generation at multiple consumer owned renewable energy sources can cause random voltage fluctuations, which may result in voltage violations at multiple nodes in a power distribution system. Traditional methods of voltage control are ineffective to address fast voltage variations. New dynamic methods of voltage control using end user devices can significantly benefit from the knowledge of the dominant influencer of voltage fluctuation (DIVF). This paper introduces information theoretic metrics to identify DIVF for every node in the power distribution system. A node can be DIVF due to its location in the distribution system and its capacity to generate and change its power. Use of traditional power flow algorithms to identify the DIVF is computationally complex which limits their use in real-time applications. In this work, information theoretic indicators of the DIVF are computed analytically in a computationally efficient manner, and their effectiveness to identify the DIVF is tested using the IEEE 69 node test system. From simulations, it is illustrated that differential entropy, Kullback-Leibler distance and Frechet distance are effective indicators of the DIVF and can successfully identify the most influential nodes providing the foundation for intelligent voltage control.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The radiation field wave forms produced by intracloud lightning discharge processes

The large-amplitude radiation field pulses produced by intracloud lightning discharge processes have been recorded with submicrosecond time resolution. The wave forms are distinctly different from those produced by return strokes in cloud-to-ground lightning, yet they are surprisingly alike within a discharge and in different discharges. The shapes tend to be bipolar, with two or three narrow, fast-rising pulses superimposed on the initial half cycle. Pulses with a positive initial polarity are usually produced in the several tens of milliseconds prior to the first return stroke in a cloud-to-ground discharge. Positive pulses tend to occur at regular intervals and have a mean full width of about 40 + or - 13 microsec. Negative pulses are usually produced during isolated cloud discharges at more random intervals and have shapes similar to the positive pulses but with more variability. The implications of the field shapes and polarities for the physics of intracloud discharge processes are discussed.

Weidman, C. D.↗

The noise of BL Lacertae

Results are presented from an intensive optical and IR monitoring program of the flux and polarization characteristics of BL Lac. It is found that the polarization variations increase in amplitude with increasing time interval, and that the path traced out by the polarization vector in the Q-U plane is a random walk. In view of earlier measurements of BL Lac, the polarization fluctuations can be represented at low frequencies by the flat power spectrum of white noise, up to a frequency of 0.05 cycles/day. Above this frequency, the spectrum steepens to that of a random walk. A model for BL Lac suggested by the polarimetric noise can be constructed from independent sources of light with randomly oriented, strong polarization. Small random differences in spectral index from source to source could also explain the variable wavelength dependence of polarization.

Moore, R. L.↗

Probabilistic finite elements for transient analysis in nonlinear continua

The probabilistic finite element method (PFEM), which is a combination of finite element methods and second-moment analysis, is formulated for linear and nonlinear continua with inhomogeneous random fields. Analogous to the discretization of the displacement field in finite element methods, the random field is also discretized. The formulation is simplified by transforming the correlated variables to a set of uncorrelated variables through an eigenvalue orthogonalization. Furthermore, it is shown that a reduced set of the uncorrelated variables is sufficient for the second-moment analysis. Based on the linear formulation of the PFEM, the method is then extended to transient analysis in nonlinear continua. The accuracy and efficiency of the method is demonstrated by application to a one-dimensional, elastic/plastic wave propagation problem. The moments calculated compare favorably with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. Also, the procedure is amenable to implementation in deterministic FEM based computer programs.

Liu, W. K.↗

Estimation of bias errors in measured airplane responses using maximum likelihood method

A maximum likelihood method is used for estimation of unknown bias errors in measured airplane responses. The mathematical model of an airplane is represented by six-degrees-of-freedom kinematic equations. In these equations the input variables are replaced by their measured values which are assumed to be without random errors. The resulting algorithm is verified with a simulation and flight test data. The maximum likelihood estimates from in-flight measured data are compared with those obtained by using a nonlinear-fixed-interval-smoother and an extended Kalmar filter.

Klein, Vladiaslav↗

Multi-version software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

A number of experimental and theoretical issues associated with the practical use of multi-version software to provide run-time tolerance to software faults were investigated. A specialized tool was developed and evaluated for measuring testing coverage for a variety of metrics. The tool was used to collect information on the relationships between software faults and coverage provided by the testing process as measured by different metrics (including data flow metrics). Considerable correlation was found between coverage provided by some higher metrics and the elimination of faults in the code. Back-to-back testing was continued as an efficient mechanism for removal of un-correlated faults, and common-cause faults of variable span. Software reliability estimation methods was also continued based on non-random sampling, and the relationship between software reliability and code coverage provided through testing. New fault tolerance models were formulated. Simulation studies of the Acceptance Voting and Multi-stage Voting algorithms were finished and it was found that these two schemes for software fault tolerance are superior in many respects to some commonly used schemes. Particularly encouraging are the safety properties of the Acceptance testing scheme.

Vouk, Mladen A.↗

Design for cyclic loading endurance of composites

The present paper describes the application of the computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) to air craft wing type structures. The code performs a complete probabilistic structural analysis for composites taking into account the uncertainties in geometry, boundary conditions, material properties, laminate lay-ups and loads. Results of the analysis are presented in terms of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and probability density function (PDF) of life of a wing type composite structure under different hygrothermal environments subjected to random pressure. The sensitivity of fatigue life to a number of critical structural/material variables is also computed from the analysis.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

The Impact of Model and Rainfall Forcing Errors on Characterizing Soil Moisture Uncertainty in Land Surface Modeling

The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter) uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty) or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty) to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.

Maggioni, V.↗