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Thermophysical Property Measurements of Molten Semiconductors in 1-g and Reduced-g Condition

Understanding and controlling the formation kinetics of varieties of crystal imperfections such as point defects, non uniform distribution of doping atoms, and impurity atoms in growing crystals are very important. Theoretical (numerical) modeling of the crystal growth process is an essential step to achieving these objectives. In order to obtain reliable modeling results, input parameters, i.e. various thermophysical parameters, must be accurate. The importance of accurate thermophysical properties of semiconductors in crystal growth cannot be overly emphasized. The total hemispherical emissivity, for instance, has a dramatic impact on the thermal environment. It determines the radiative emission from the surface of the melt which determines to a large extent the profile of the solidified crystal. In order to understand the convection and the turbulence in a melt, viscosity becomes an important parameter. The liquid surface tension determines the shape of the liquid-atmosphere interface near the solid-liquid-atmosphere triple point. Currently used values for these parameters are rather inaccurate, and this program intends to provide more reliable measurements of these thermophysical properties. Thus, the objective of this program is in the accurate measurements of various thermophysical properties which can be reliably used in the modeling of various crystal growth processes. In this program, thermophysical properties of molten semiconductors, such as Si, Ge, Si-Ge, and InSb will be measured as a function of temperature using the High Temperature Electrostatic Levitator at JPL. Each material will be doped by different kinds of impurities at various doping levels. Thermophysical properties which will be measured include: density, thermal expansion coefficient, surface tension, viscosity, specific heat, hemispherical total emissivity, and perhaps electrical and thermal conductivities. Many molten semiconductors are chemically reactive with crucibles. As a result, these dispersed impurities in the melts tend to substantially modify the properties of pure semiconductors. Sample levitation done in a vacuum clearly helps maintain the sample purity. However, in the 1-g environment, all gravity caused effects such as convection, sedimentation and buoyancy are still present in the sample. In addition, large forces needed to levitate a sample in the presence of the gravity can cause additional flows in the melt. The use of the High Temperature Electrostatic Levitator (HTESL) for the present research is a recent development and little is known about the flows induced by the electrostatic forces. In this ground base program, we will define the limits of HTESL technology as various thermophysical properties of molten semiconductors are measured.

Rhim, Won-Kyu↗

Characterizing Ocean Acidification and Atmospheric Emission caused by Methane Released from Gas Hydrate Systems along the US Atlantic Margin (Final Report)

To assess the environmental impact of decomposing gas hydrates, this project characterized the atmospheric emission and ocean acidification associated with seafloor-released methane along the U.S. Atlantic Margin. This project leveraged the newly discovered seafloor seeps in this region, many of which are located near the landward limit of gas hydrate stability, to investigate the fate and environmental impact of methane once released from the seafloor. Several research directions were pursued during these investigations. First, high-spatial resolution surface surveys were conducted to characterize the degree to which sea-to-air emission of methane is correlated with acoustically detected seafloor bubble emissions. Second, the natural isotopic signatures of both radiocarbon and δ 13 C were measured throughout the water column to observe if seafloor-released methane was detected in surface waters or if it was replaced by a different source. Third, the extent of methane oxidation in the water column was constrained to assess the ability of this process to mitigate atmospheric methane emissions. Fourth, since aerobic methane oxidation ultimately converts methane to carbon dioxide, the extent of ocean acidification relating to this process was assessed. Ultimately, this project was conducted in four stages. Stage one involved preparations for the research expedition along the U.S. Atlantic Margin. This involved calibrating, modifying, and validating equipment needed for sample and data collection in this unique environment. Stage two involved executing the at-sea science. This research was conducted from 25 August to 5 September 2017 on the R/V Hugh R. Sharp. This expedition left from Lewes, Delaware and investigated the continental slope from approximately this latitude down to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Third, any samples unanalyzed on the research vessel were returned to the laboratory and measured. Fourth, the data were interpreted, and publications and presentations were prepared.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office (KT) Overview

The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office has the unique responsibility to curate NASA's extraterrestrial samples - from past and forthcoming missions - into the indefinite future. Currently, curation includes documentation, preservation, physical security, preparation, and distribution of samples from the Moon, asteroids, comets, the solar wind, and the planet Mars. Each of these sample sets has a unique history and comes from a unique environment. The curation laboratories and procedures developed over 40 years have proven both necessary and sufficient to serve the evolving needs of a worldwide research community. A new generation of sample return missions to destinations across the solar system is being planned and proposed. The curators are developing the tools and techniques to meet the challenges of these new samples. Extraterrestrial samples pose unique curation requirements. These samples were formed and exist under conditions strikingly different from those on the Earth's surface. Terrestrial contamination would destroy much of the scientific significance of extraterrestrial materials. To preserve the research value of these precious samples, contamination must be minimized, understood, and documented. In addition, the samples must be preserved - as far as possible - from physical and chemical alteration. The elaborate curation facilities at JSC were designed and constructed, and have been operated for many years, to keep sample contamination and alteration to a minimum. Currently, JSC curates seven collections of extraterrestrial samples: (a)) Lunar rocks and soils collected by the Apollo astronauts, (b) Meteorites collected on dedicated expeditions to Antarctica, (c) Cosmic dust collected by high-altitude NASA aircraft,t (d) Solar wind atoms collected by the Genesis spacecraft, (e) Comet particles collected by the Stardust spacecraft, (f) Interstellar dust particles collected by the Stardust spacecraft, and (g) Asteroid soil particles collected by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Hayabusa spacecraft Each of these sample sets has a unique history and comes from a unique environment. We have developed specialized laboratories and practices over many years to preserve and protect the samples, not only for current research but for studies that may be carried out in the indefinite future.

Allen, Carlton↗

Thermal-infrared remote sensing and Kirchhoff's Law. 1: Laboratory measurements

By the end of this century the Earth Observing System (EOS) will provide worldwide, thermal infrared, multispectral images of the Earth, presenting geologists with a new kind of remote sensing data for interpretation. Thus it has become essential to understand the spectral emittance behavior of terrestrial surface materials. Perhaps the most fundamental question to be answereed is the extent to which such materials follow Kirchhoff's law (epsilon = 1 -R) under laboratory and field conditions, especially when a sample displays a thermal gradient. We present the first rigorous quantitative comparison of directional and hemispherical reflectance and directional emittance of rock and soil samples in the laboratory, with thermal gradients induced by heating them from below and allowing them to radiate to a colder background. The results show that only an extemeley low density sample composed of fine particles sifted into a 'fairy castle' structure displays a thermal gradient steep enough within the infrared skin depth to cause significant (6%) departure from Kirchhoff's law. There is no detectable effect on the more normal terrestrial samples, such as soils and rocks measured in the laboratory, even when semitransparent coatings are involved. Thus both emittance and reflectance measurements can be used to calculate sample emissivity for most terrestrial surface materieals. However, the effect on Kirchhoffian behavior of different field environments, which may induce a steeper thermal gradient in particulate samples, has yet to be determined, and some low-density surface materials like newly fallen snow, frost, and efflorescent salts on playas have yet to be measured in emittance.

Salisbury, John W.↗

Environmental Dependence of Type Ia Supernovae in Low-redshift Galaxy Clusters

Abstract We present an analysis of 102 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in nearby ( z < 0.1), x-ray-selected galaxy clusters. This is the largest such sample to date and is based on archival data primarily from ZTF and ATLAS. We divide our SNe Ia into an inner cluster sample projected within r 500 of the cluster center and an outer cluster sample projected between r 500 and 2 r 500 . We compare these to field samples of SNe Ia at similar redshifts in both quiescent and star-forming host galaxies. Based on SALT3 fits to the light curves, we find that the inner cluster SNe Ia have a higher fraction of fast-evolving objects (SALT3 x 1 < −1) than the outer cluster or field quiescent samples. This implies an intrinsically different population of SNe Ia occurs in inner cluster environments, beyond known correlations based on host galaxy alone. Our cluster samples show a strongly bimodal x 1 distribution with a fast-evolving component that dominates the inner cluster objects (≳75%) but is just a small fraction of SNe Ia in field star-forming galaxies (≲10%). We do not see strong evidence for variations in the color (SALT3 c ) distributions among the samples and find only minor differences in SN Ia standardization parameters and Hubble residuals. We suggest that the age of the stellar population drives the observed distributions, with the oldest populations nearly exclusively producing fast-evolving SNe Ia.

Larison, Conor (ORCID:0000000320374619)↗

Space Systems - Safety and Compatibility of Materials - Method to Determine the Flammability Thresholds of Materials

Spacecraft fire safety emphasizes fire prevention, which is achieved primarily through the use of fire-resistant materials. Materials selection for spacecraft is based on conventional flammability acceptance tests, along with prescribed quantity limitations and configuration control for items that are non-pass or questionable. ISO 14624-1 and -2 are the major methods used to evaluate flammability of polymeric materials intended for use in the habitable environments of spacecraft. The methods are upward flame-propagation tests initiated in static environments and using a well-defined igniter flame at the bottom of the sample. The tests are conducted in the most severe flaming combustion environment expected in the spacecraft. The pass/fail test logic of ISO 14624-1 and -2 does not allow a quantitative comparison with reduced gravity or microgravity test results; therefore their use is limited, and possibilities for in-depth theoretical analyses and realistic estimates of spacecraft fire extinguishment requirements are practically eliminated. To better understand the applicability of laboratory test data to actual spacecraft environments, a modified ISO 14624 protocol has been proposed that, as an alternative to qualifying materials as pass/fail in the worst-expected environments, measures the actual upward flammability limit for the material. A working group established by NASA to provide recommendations for exploration spacecraft internal atmospheres realized the importance of correlating laboratory data with real-life environments and recommended NASA to develop a flammability threshold test method. The working group indicated that for the Constellation Program, the flammability threshold information will allow NASA to identify materials with increased flammability risk from oxygen concentration and total pressure changes, minimize potential impacts, and allow for development of sound requirements for new spacecraft and extravehicular landers and habitats. Furthermore, recent research has shown that current normal gravity materials flammability tests do not correlate with flammability in ventilated, micro- or reduced-gravity conditions. Currently, the materials selection for spacecraft is based on the assumption of commonality between ground flammability test results and spacecraft environments, which does not appear to be valid. Materials flammability threshold data acquired in normal gravity can be correlated with data obtained in microgravity or reduced-gravity experiments, and consequently a more accurate assessment of the margin of safety of the material in the real environment can be made. In addition, the method allows the option of selecting better or best space system materials, as opposed to what would be considered just acceptable from a flammability point of view and realistic assessment of spacecraft fire extinguishment needs, which could result in significant weight savings. The knowledge afforded by this technique allows for limited extrapolations of flammability behavior to conditions not specifically tested and that could potentially result in significant cost and time savings. The intent of this Technical Specification is to bring to the attention of International Aerospace Community the importance of correlating laboratory test data with real-life space systems applications. The method presented is just one of the possibilities that are believed will lead to better understanding the applicability of laboratory aerospace materials flammability test data. International feedback on improving the proposed method, as well as suggestions for correlating other laboratory aerospace test data with real-life applications relevant to space systems are being sought.

Hirsch, David↗

Materials Degradation in Extreme Environments: Novel In-situ Measurements of Cracking in Molten Salt

The safety and reliability of next-gen reactors, i.e. molten salt reactors (MSR), depends on materials performance and longevity in extreme environments, yet no in-situ, validated measurement techniques for environmentally assisted cracking (EAC), one potential degradation mechanism, exist for these conditions. This project combined the use of in-situ direct current potential drop (DCPD) crack growth rate determination applied to a horizontal load frame with high temperature fittings and novel sample geometries to enable evaluation in MSR environments and develop a full in-situ SCC measurement capability for extreme environments (high conductivity and elevated T), necessary to predict materials reliability. A successful demonstration of DCPD measurement in molten NaNO 3 /KNO 3 salts at 340 o C was accomplished and validated through post-test fractography imaging. This is the first ever public example, to the authors knowledge, of an in-situ crack growth rate measurement in a molten salt environment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Ultrasonic/sonic drilling/coring (USDC) for planetary applications

One of the major limitations of sampling on Mars and other low gravity environments is the need for high axial force when using conventional drilling. To address this limitation an ultrasonic/sonic drilling/coring (USDC) mechanism has been developed that employs an ultrasonic horn driven by a piezoelectric stack. The horn dnves a free mass that resonates between the horn and drill stein. Tests have shown that the USDC addresses some of the key challenges to the NASA sampling objectives. The USDC is lightweight (450 g), requires low preload (<5N) and can be driven at low power (5W), The device has been shown to drill rocks with various levels of hardness including granite, diorite, basalt and limestone. The hammering action involved with the coring process can produce cores of various shapes, which need not necessarily be round. Because it is driven by piezoelectric ceramics, the USDC is highly tolerant to changes in its operating environment. These actuation materials can be designed to operate at a wide range of temperatures including those expected on Mars and Venus. Although the drill is driven electrically at 20 kHz, a substantial sub-harmonic acoustic component is found that is crucial to drilling performance. An analytical model has been developed to explain this low frequency coupling in the horn, free mass, drill stem and rock.

Peterson, Thomas↗

An evaluation of grease type ball bearing lubricants operating in various environments

Because many future spacecraft or space stations will require mechanisms to operate for long periods of time in environments which are adverse to most bearing lubricants, a series of tests is continuing to evaluate 38 grease type lubricants in R-4 size bearings in five different environments for a 1 year period. Four repetitions of each test are made to provide statistical samples. These tests were used to select four lubricants for 5 year tests in selected environments with five repetitions of each test for statistical samples. At the present time, 100 test sets are completed and 22 test sets are underway. Three 5 year tests were started in (1) continuous operation and (2) start-stop operation, with both in vacuum at ambient temperatures, and (3) continuous operation at 93.3 C. In the 1 year tests the best results to date in all environments were obtained with a high viscosity index perfluoroalkylpolyether (PFPE) grease.

Mcmurtrey, E. L.↗

Crewmember microbiome may influence microbial composition of ISS habitable surfaces

The International Space Station (ISS) is a complex built environment physically isolated from Earth. Assessing the interplay between the microbial community of the ISS and its crew is important for preventing biomedical and structural complications for long term human spaceflight missions. In this study, we describe one crewmember’s microbial profile from body swabs of mouth, nose, ear, skin and saliva that were collected at eight different time points pre-, during and post-flight. Additionally, environmental surface samples from eight different habitable locations in the ISS were collected from two flights. Environmental samples from one flight were collected by the crewmember and samples from the next flight were collected after the crewmember departed. The microbial composition in both environment and crewmember samples was measured using shotgun metagenomic sequencing and processed using the Livermore Metagenomics Analysis Toolkit. Ordination of sample to sample distances showed that of the eight crew body sites analyzed, skin, nostril, and ear samples are more similar in microbial composition to the ISS surfaces than mouth and saliva samples; and that the microbial composition of the crewmember’s skin samples are more closely related to the ISS surface samples collected by the crewmember on the same flight than ISS surface samples collected by other crewmembers on different flights. In these collections, species alpha diversity in saliva samples appears to decrease during flight and rebound after returning to Earth. This is the first study to compare the ISS microbiome to a crewmember’s microbiome via shotgun metagenomic sequencing. We observed that the microbiome of the surfaces inside the ISS resemble those of the crew’s skin. These data support future crew and ISS microbial surveillance efforts and the design of preventive measures to maintain crew habitat onboard spacecraft destined for long term space travel.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Microgravity Disturbance Characterization of the Quench Module Insert (QMI) Phase Change Device (PCD)

The Materials Science Research Facility (MSRF) is a multi-user, multi-purpose facility for materials science research. One experiment within the MSRF will be the Quench Module Insert (QMI), a high-temperature furnace with unique capabilities for processing different classes of materials. The primary functions of the QMI furnace are to melt, directionally solidify, and quench metallic samples, providing data to aid in understanding the effects of the microgravity environment on the characteristics of these processed metals. The QMI houses sealed individual sample ampoules containing material to be processed. Quenching of the samples in the QMI furnace is accomplished by releasing low-melting-point metallic shoes into contact with the outside of the sample ampoule, dissipating heat and cooling the sample inside. The impact from this method of quench will induce sample vibrations which could be large enough to adversely affect sample quality. Utilizing breadboard hardware, the sample quench sequence, releasing the shoes, was conducted. Data was collected from accelerometers located on the breadboard sample cartridge, indicating the maximum acceleration achieved by the sample. The primary objective of the test described in this presentation was to determine the acceleration imparted on the sample by the shoe contact. From this information, the science community can better assess whether this method of quench will allow them to obtain the data they need.

Gattis, Christy↗

Development of Irradiation Test Devices for Transient Testing

The Transient Reactor Test facility (TREAT) resumed operations in 2017 in order to reclaim its crucial role in nuclear-heated fuel safety research. TREAT’s historic era of operation (1959-1994) was best known for integral-scale testing of large fuel specimens/bundles under postulated reactor plant accident conditions, but TREAT also supported smaller-scale phenomena identification tests that elucidated fundamental behaviors and paved the way for these integral-scale tests. Advances in modern computational capabilities and a resurgence of interest in novel reactor technologies have created an opportunity for emphasizing modernized science-based and separate effects tests once again at TREAT. An innovative approach to this type of testing has been developed to leverage minor radioactivity built-in during brief TREAT irradiations by arranging smaller fuel specimens in low activation hardware so that they can be easily extracted and shipped for post irradiation examination within weeks. This recently-established capability, termed the Minimal Activation Retrievable Capsule Holder (MARCH) irradiation vehicle system, includes capabilities for cost-effective simplified-environment testing of centimeter-scale fuel samples of various geometries, temperature-controlled irradiations of millimeter-size samples for lower-length-scale model development, liquid-metal bonded heat sink capsules for controlling transient temperature response in fuel rodlets, and an innovative approach to high throughput irradiation of transient sensors and instrumentation. The MARCH system’s capabilities will also set the foundation for fuel safety research performed in larger integral-scale test devices with coolant environments representing reactor plants. Based upon historic approaches, but modernized to meet current nuclear technology needs, these larger irradiation devices include flowing pressurized water (including the ability to depressurize to steam) as well liquid metal cooling loops for various fuel rod and small bundle specimens. Here, this paper describes the recently-established MARCH system and current trajectory to enabling advanced transient science with a suite of irradiation test devices.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam revisits the large-scale environmental dependence on galaxy morphology over 360 deg2 at z = 0.3–0.6

This study investigates the role of large-scale environments on the fraction of spiral galaxies at z = 0.3–0.6 sliced to three redshift bins of Δz = 0.1. Here, we sample 276220 massive galaxies in a limited stellar mass of 5 × 1010 solar mass (~M*) over 360 deg2, as obtained from the Second Public Data Release of the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP). By combining projected two-dimensional density information (Shimakawa et al. 2021, MNRAS, 503, 3896) and the CAMIRA cluster catalog (Oguri et al. 2018, PASJ, 70, S20), we investigate the spiral fraction across large-scale overdensities and in the vicinity of red sequence clusters. We adopt transfer learning to reduce the cost of labeling spiral galaxies significantly and then perform stacking analysis across the entire field to overcome the limitations of sample size. Here we employ a morphological classification catalog by the Galaxy Zoo Hubble (Willett et al., 2017, MNRAS, 464, 4176) to train the deep learning model. Based on 74103 sources classified as spirals, we find moderate morphology–density relations on a 10 comoving Mpc scale, thanks to the wide-field coverage of HSC-SSP. Clear deficits of spiral galaxies have also been confirmed, in and around 1136 red sequence clusters. Furthermore, we verify whether there is a large-scale environmental dependence on rest-frame u - r colors of spiral galaxies; such a tendency was not observed in our sample.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Reactions of chromium with gaseous NaCl in an oxygen environment

Target collection techniques and high pressure mass spectrometric sampling have been used to study the formation of volatile chromium-containing species in the reaction of Cr2O3 with O2 and NaCl gases. Experiments were performed at atmospheric pressure as a function of chromium temperature, oxygen pressure, and NaCl gas concentration. The major chromium-containing vapor species were found to be (NaCl)x CrO3 gas, with x = 1,2, and 3, which are products of heterogeneous reactions on the surface. The kinetics indicate first order dependence on oxygen and sodium chloride pressures.

Stearns, C. A.↗

Reactions of chromium with gaseous NaCl in an oxygen environment

Target collection techniques and high pressure mass spectrometric sampling have been used to study the formation of volatile chromium-containing species in the reaction of Cr2O3 in the condensed state with gaseous O2 and NaCl. Experiments were performed at atmospheric pressure as a function of chromium temperature, oxygen pressure, and NaCl concentration. The major chromium-containing vapor species were found to be (NaCl)xCrO3, with x = 1,2, and 3, which are products of heterogeneous reactions on the surface. The kinetics indicate first order dependence on oxygen and sodium chloride pressures.

Stearns, C. A.↗

An evaluation of grease type ball bearing lubricants operating in various environments

Grease type lubricants in bearings were evaluated in five different adverse environments for a one year period. Four repetitions of each test were made to provide statistical samples. These tests were then used to select four lubricants for five year tests in selected environments with five repetitions of each test for statistical samples. Three five year tests were started in (1) continuous operation; (2) start-stop operation, with both in vacuum at ambient temperatures; and (3) continuous operation at 93.3 C. To date, in the one year tests, the best results in all environments were obtained with a high viscosity index perfluoroalkylpolyether grease.

Mcmurtrey, E. L.↗

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗