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Large-Scale Grid Models: Synthetic Data and Co-Simulation

Power grid modernization and wide-spread distributed energy resource (DER) integration are driving an explosion of interest in advanced algorithms and new optimization schemes. However, there has historically been a lack of open-access realistically sized and detailed datasets-particularly for the distribution system-and simulation tools able to model these systems. This talk will present recent advances with very large-scale (>>1M nodes) distribution data sets and the use of co-simulation to tractably model large integrated transmission-distribution grids and their interactions with new controls/optimization.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Machine Learning assisted optimization and parameter space exploration dataset of spin ice Hamiltonian

This repository contains both simulated and experimental structure factor data for the data challenge involving the inverse scattering problem. The simulated data were generated during a machine-learning-assisted optimization routine described in ref[1]. The experimental structure factor was measured on a rare-earth oxide, Dy2Ti2O7 using diffuse neutron scattering from time-of-flight techniques on the CORELLI instrument at the Spallation Neutron Source, Oak Ridge National Laboratory. A Metropolis Monte Carlo code implemented to run in a High-performance computing setting was used to calculated simulated structure factors for the spin-ice Hamiltonian at 680 mK, which is the same temperature as for the experimental data. The total size of all the files in this repository is 5.12 GB. A detailed description of the files is given below. ExperimentalData_630mK.dat – A linearized version of 3-dimensional experimental data of size 61×81×21. This data was processed to remove an estimation of non-magnetic background, including nuclear scattering signal and instrumentation background. Parameters.dat – 6700 samples were evaluated over the 4-dimensional parameter space (J_1, J_2, J_3 and J_(3^' )). There is an additional parameter, D in the spin Hamiltonian to mimic the dipolar interaction between magnetic ions. However, this parameter, D was fixed to a value determined by prior work. This file contains five columns for the parameters J_1, J_2, J_3, J_(3^' ) and D respectively. 3D_Simulation_Data.dat – The simulated structure factor, S(Q) data are included in this file. Each raw contains a linearized array of 3D volumes of S(Q) calculated for the parameter set given in the corresponding row of the file Parameters.dat. The size of the volume data was matched to the experimental data. Qx(h,-h,0).dat, Qy(k,k,-2k).dat, Qz(l,l,l).dat – These files contain the h, k, and l values along with the reciprocal vectors [h,-h,0], [k,k,-2k] and [l,l,l] respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Data for Zheng et al. (2025), "AquaMEND: Reconciling multiple impacts of salinization on soil carbon biogeochemistry"

Soil salinization, exacerbated by climate change, poses a global threat to coastal ecosystems and soil function. Salinity affects soil carbon cycling by directly impacting microbial activity and indirectly altering soil physicochemical properties, but current models inadequately represent these complexities. This dataset contains the observational and modeling data from Zheng et al. (2025), which described a process-based modeling framework that couples soil solution chemistry with microbial carbon cycling reactions to study the impacts of soil salinization. This conceptual model is implemented numerically into the open-source geochemical program PHREEQC 3.0 (Parkhurst and Appelo, 2013). This dataset consists of: - Figure2_AquaMEND_salinity_buffer: Contains model simulation outputs to assess the impact of three different cation exchange and surface complexation processes on salinity buffering (Fig. 2 from Zheng et al. 2025). - Figure3_Salinity_function: Contains salinity function fitting for literature data (Fig. 3 from Zheng et al. 2025). - Figure4_AquaMEND_microbial_mechanisms: Contains model simulation outputs for testing various microbial process-based hypotheses related to soil salinization, including microbial mortality, carbon use efficiency (CUE), extracellular enzyme activity, and other microbial mechanisms (Fig. 4 from Zheng et al. 2025). - Figure5_AquaMEND_Redox: Contains on model simulation outputs to evaluate shifts among key redox processes, such as aerobic respiration, sulfate reduction, and methanogenesis (Fig.5 from Zheng et al. 2025). - Figure6_AquaMEND_sorption: Contains on model simulation outputs for investigating the effects of salinity on dissolved organic matter (DOM) sorption and desorption processes (Fig. 6 from Zheng et al. 2025). - Figure7_AquaMEND_process_couple: Contains on model simulation outputs for exploring coupled biotic-abiotic processes and their interactions (Fig. 7 from Zheng et al. 2025). - data: Includes datasets used to develop salinity response functions and evaluate salinity buffering capacity. Datasets for MEND model calibration. - database: Contains the `.dat` file required by PHREEQC for model execution. - README.md: A Markdown plain text file describing the computational tools and directories. Files are a mixture of plain text CSV (comma-separated value) and plain text *.dat files written by the model; no special software is required to read them.

EARTH SCIENCE > AGRICULTURE > SOILS > SOIL SALINIT↗

An Investigation Into Transecting Satellites in Future Space Traffic Management Scenarios

The number of satellites expected to populate the near-Earth space environment is set to dramatically increase in the coming decade as new large constellations are approved and deployed. Current strategies for placing new batches of these satellites on orbit often involve launching into an initial orbit, and then performing apogee raising maneuvers to reach a target altitude. Similarly, end-of-life planning for these constellation satellites can consist of de-orbit burns that lower perigee to permit disposal via re-entry. Both the raising and de-orbiting maneuvers can result in the individual satellites traveling in high-eccentricity orbits that have the potential to transect other spacecraft trajectories. While individual large constellations may be able to coexist in separate altitude and inclination bands, having thousands of satellites moving between these bands as new satellites are replaced and old ones are removed could pose additional collision risks. Similar concerns have been raised regarding the impact that large numbers of university-class CubeSats might have in terms of their overall collision risk, especially as these satellites typically do not have propulsion systems for active maneuvering. To assess the impact that transecting satellites might have to future space traffic management strategies, this study explored a variety of future realistic scenarios using a high-fidelity simulation tool. The model can simulate the orbit of tens of thousands of resident space objects (RSOs) simultaneously, to include active satellites, debris, rocket bodies, or even future hypothetical scenarios, using a realistic force model that incorporates non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, solar radiation pressure, and more. As the model is run forward in time, various statistics and meta-data are gathered on any predicted conjunction event, providing insight into the nature and frequency of potential collisions, e.g., what size are the two satellites, who operates the satellites, are they active or passive objects, etc. Additional customization is available in terms of how probability of collision is computed, and how the probability ellipsoids and screening volumes are determined. The simulation tool also allows for rule-based maneuvers for active satellites, e.g, given an advance conjunction “warning,” one or both of the satellites can maneuver to a safe distance. A wide range of maneuvers can be implemented using impulsive or low-thrust methods, and the latencies can also be varied, e.g., using maneuver lead times of 48 hours, 24 hours, or 12 hours. Validation of the simulation results is performed against current and historical datasets available, to include comparisons to prior conjunction data messages (CDMs), object properties (mass, volume, etc.), and two-line-element records from both public and internal sources. Using the simulation environment, an assessment on the general risks that transecting satellites might pose for hypothetical future space object environments will be presented. This will involve the simulation of approximately 50,000 new large constellation satellites, in addition to the existing catalog of approximately 20,000 known resident space objects (RSOs), over propagation periods of one month to one year. A description of the simulation methodologies, scenarios evaluated, and validation methods will also be presented, as well as a preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of several candidate maneuver strategies that have the potential to reduce collision risk between active satellites.

Brian Gunter↗

A Subbasin-based framework to represent land surface processes in an Earth System Model

Realistically representing spatial heterogeneity and lateral land surface processes within and between modeling units in earth system models is important because of their implications to surface energy and water exchange. The traditional approach of using regular grids as computational units in land surface models and earth system models may lead to inadequate representation of lateral movements of water, energy and carbon fluxes, especially when the grid resolution increases. Here a new subbasin-based framework is introduced in the Community Land Model (CLM), which is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Local processes are represented assuming each subbasin as a grid cell on a pseudo grid matrix with no significant modifications to the existing CLM modeling structure. Lateral routing of water within and between subbasins is simulated with the subbasin version of a recently-developed physically based routing model, Model for Scale Adaptive River Routing (MOSART). As an illustration, this new framework is implemented in the topographically diverse region of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. The modeling units (subbasins) are delineated from high-resolution Digital Elevation Model while atmospheric forcing and surface parameters are remapped from the corresponding high resolution datasets. The impacts of this representation on simulating hydrologic processes are explored by comparing it with the default (grid-based) CLM representation. In addition, the effects of DEM resolution on parameterizing topography and the subsequent effects on runoff processes are investigated. Limited model evaluation and comparison showed that small difference between the averaged forcing can lead to more significant difference in the simulated runoff and streamflow because of nonlinear horizontal processes. Topographic indices derived from high resolution DEM may not improve the overall water balance, but affect the partitioning between surface and subsurface runoff. More systematic analyses are needed to determine the relative merits of the subbasin representation compared to the commonly used grid-based representation, especially when land surface models are approaching higher resolutions.

Subbasin-based representation, Community Land Mode↗

CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations

Overview The Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) model is an open-source geospatial python package that provides new power plant locations at a 1km resolution. The model ingests U.S. state or regional-scale electricity system capacity expansion plans, such as those produced by the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), and identifies feasible, site-specific locations for individual new power plants (renewable and non-renewable). CERF combines high-resolution geospatial suitability analyses with an economic algorithm that selects individual plant siting locations based on grid interconnection costs and the locational marginal value of new generation. The model incorporates a wide range of dynamic constraints and opportunities, such as protected lands, population density, existing infrastructure, and water availability. This dataset provides CERF power plant siting results for IM3 Phase 2 simulations across eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 CERF siting results in this dataset correspond to capacity expansion plans in the GCAM-USA IM3 Phase 2 simulation data and are available for each of the above scenarios. Data Details Temporal Range: 2015-2055 in 5-year timesteps. Note that 2015 is the experiment base year and 2020 and beyond represent model simulation years. Spatial Range: Plant locations are provided for the eleven states in the Western US including Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Spatial Resolution: 1 km-squared, provided in x and y coordinates Geospatial Projection: Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) File Type: csv The dataset contains subdirectories for each of the eight scenarios described in the overview. Each scenario folder contains two subfolders with the following information: 1. Power Plant Data This directory contains a single .csv file of power plant locations for both pre-existing (non-CERF sited plants in operation in 2015) and new (CERF-sited) power plants across the temporal range along with additional CERF model output parameters for CERF-sited plants. Plant with a siting year earlier than 2020 correspond to facilities that are operational leading into the first timestep CERF simulation. For a more detailed description of CERF model output parameters, see the CERF model documentation. Note that the cerf_plant_id parameter is unique within each scenario file but not across scenario files. Parameter Descriptions scenario - Name of scenario cerf_plant_id - Unique siting identifier cerf_sited - If True, indicates that plant was sited by CERF model. If False, indicates pre-existing facility region_name - Name of region (state) tech_id - Technology ID tech_name - Full generation technology name inclusive of cooling type (if applicable) and additional characteristics tech_simple - Simplified generation technology type unit_size_mw - Power plant unit size (MW) xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) index - Index position in the flattend 2D array buffer_in_km - Exclusion buffer around site (km) sited_year - Year of siting retirement_year - Year of retirement lmp_zone - Locational marginal price (LMP) zone ID locational_marginal_price_usd_per_mwh - Locational marginal price ($/MWh) generation_mwh_per_year - Generation output (MWh/yr) operating_cost_usd_per_year - Cost of plant operations ($/yr) net_operational_value - Net operational value based on LMP and and operating costs ($/yr) interconnection_cost - Cost of interconnection for transmission & gas pipeline (if applicable) net_locational_cost -- Difference of interconnection cost and operating value ($/yr) capacity_factor_fraction - Capacity factor (fraction) carbon_capture_rate_fraction - Carbon capture rate (fraction) fuel_co2_content_tons_per_btu - Fuel CO2 content (tons/Btu) fuel_price_usd_per_mmbtu - Fuel price ($/MMBtu) fuel_price_esc_rate_fraction - Fuel price escalation rate (fraction) heat_rate_btu_per_kWh - Heat rate (Btu/kWh) lifetime_yrs - Technology lifetime for annuity (years) operational_life_yrs - Operational lifetime for retirement (years) variable_om_usd_per_mwh - Variable operation and maintenance costs of yearly capacity use ($/MWh) variable_om_esc_rate_fraction - Variable operation and maintenance costs escalation rate (fraction) carbon_tax_usd_per_ton - Carbon tax ($/ton) carbon_tax_esc_rate_fraction - Carbon tax escalation rate (fraction) 2. Storage Data This directory contains information on new and pre-existing energy storage facilities operational in each timestep along with various storage operational parameters. The 2015 timestep provides pre-existing energy storage data and corresponds with facilities that are operational leading into the first model simulation timestep. Note that coordinates in the storage files correspond to the interconnection point on the grid (substation location), not individual energy storage locations. Energy storage is added in a cumulative process at each given interconnection point. That is, each individual file provides the total operational storage capacity interconnected to the specified substation for the given timestep, inclusive of previously installed storage at that location and new storage installed in that timestep at that location. Parameters scenario - Name of scenario timestep - Simulation timestep name - Unique storage identifier s_typ - Type of energy storage technology (battery or pumped storage hydro) s_node - Node ID of interconnecting substation xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) charge_rate - Maximum charge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) discharge_rate - Maximum discharge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) duration - Duration of storage system (hours) max_SoC - Allowed maximum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) min_SoC -Allowed minimum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) charge_eff - Efficiency of charge (fraction between 0 and 1) discharge_eff - Efficiency of discharge (fraction between 0 and 1) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

CERF↗

ASCR/HEP Exascale Requirements Review Report

This draft report summarizes and details the findings, results, and recommendations derived from the ASCR/HEP Exascale Requirements Review meeting held in June, 2015. The main conclusions are as follows. 1) Larger, more capable computing and data facilities are needed to support HEP science goals in all three frontiers: Energy, Intensity, and Cosmic. The expected scale of the demand at the 2025 timescale is at least two orders of magnitude -- and in some cases greater -- than that available currently. 2) The growth rate of data produced by simulations is overwhelming the current ability, of both facilities and researchers, to store and analyze it. Additional resources and new techniques for data analysis are urgently needed. 3) Data rates and volumes from HEP experimental facilities are also straining the ability to store and analyze large and complex data volumes. Appropriately configured leadership-class facilities can play a transformational role in enabling scientific discovery from these datasets. 4) A close integration of HPC simulation and data analysis will aid greatly in interpreting results from HEP experiments. Such an integration will minimize data movement and facilitate interdependent workflows. 5) Long-range planning between HEP and ASCR will be required to meet HEP's research needs. To best use ASCR HPC resources the experimental HEP program needs a) an established long-term plan for access to ASCR computational and data resources, b) an ability to map workflows onto HPC resources, c) the ability for ASCR facilities to accommodate workflows run by collaborations that can have thousands of individual members, d) to transition codes to the next-generation HPC platforms that will be available at ASCR facilities, e) to build up and train a workforce capable of developing and using simulations and analysis to support HEP scientific research on next-generation systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

ASCR/HEP Exascale Requirements Review Report

This draft report summarizes and details the findings, results, and recommendations derived from the ASCR/HEP Exascale Requirements Review meeting held in June, 2015. The main conclusions are as follows. 1) Larger, more capable computing and data facilities are needed to support HEP science goals in all three frontiers: Energy, Intensity, and Cosmic. The expected scale of the demand at the 2025 timescale is at least two orders of magnitude -- and in some cases greater -- than that available currently. 2) The growth rate of data produced by simulations is overwhelming the current ability, of both facilities and researchers, to store and analyze it. Additional resources and new techniques for data analysis are urgently needed. 3) Data rates and volumes from HEP experimental facilities are also straining the ability to store and analyze large and complex data volumes. Appropriately configured leadership-class facilities can play a transformational role in enabling scientific discovery from these datasets. 4) A close integration of HPC simulation and data analysis will aid greatly in interpreting results from HEP experiments. Such an integration will minimize data movement and facilitate interdependent workflows. 5) Long-range planning between HEP and ASCR will be required to meet HEP's research needs. To best use ASCR HPC resources the experimental HEP program needs a) an established long-term plan for access to ASCR computational and data resources, b) an ability to map workflows onto HPC resources, c) the ability for ASCR facilities to accommodate workflows run by collaborations that can have thousands of individual members, d) to transition codes to the next-generation HPC platforms that will be available at ASCR facilities, e) to build up and train a workforce capable of developing and using simulations and analysis to support HEP scientific research on next-generation systems.

Habib, Salman↗

Massive Trajectory Data Based on Patterns of Life

Individual human location trajectory and check-in data have been the driving force for human mobility research in recent years. However, existing human mobility datasets are very limited in size and representativeness. For example, one of the largest and most commonly used datasets of individual human location trajectories, GeoLife, captures fewer than two hundred individuals. To help fill this gap, this Data and Resources paper leverages an existing data generator based on fine-grained simulation of individual human patterns of life to produce large-scale trajectory, check-in, and social network data. In this simulation, individual human agents commute between their home and work locations, visit restaurants to eat, and visit recreational sites to meet friends. We provide large datasets of months of simulated trajectories for two example regions in the United States: San Francisco and New Orleans. In addition to making the datasets available, we also provide instructions on how the simulation can be used to re-generate data, thus allowing researchers to generate the data locally without downloading prohibitively large files.

Amiri, Hossein↗

Synergistic Retrievals of Ice in High Clouds From Elastic Backscatter Lidar, Ku-band Radar and Submillimeter Wave Radiometer Observations

In this study, we investigate the synergy of elastic backscatter lidar, Ku-band radar, and sub-millimeter-wave radiometer measurements in the retrieval of ice from satellite observations. The synergy is analyzed through the generation of a large dataset of IceWater Content (IWC) profiles and simulated lidar, radar and radiometer observations. The characteristics of the instruments e.g. frequencies, sensitivities, etc. are set based on the expected characteristics of instruments of the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) mission. A hold-out validation methodology is used to assess the accuracy of the IWC profiles retrieved from various combinations of observations from the three instruments. Specifically, the IWC and associated observations are randomly divided into two datasets, one for training and the other for evaluation. The training dataset is used to train the retrieval algorithm, while the evaluation dataset is used to assess the retrieval performance. The dataset of IWC profiles is derived from CloudSat reflectivity and CALIOP lidar observations. The retrieval of the ice water content IWC profiles from the computed observations is achieved in two steps. In the first step, a class, out of 18 potential classes characterized by different vertical distribution of IWC, is estimated from the observations. The 18 classes are predetermined based on the k-Means clustering algorithm. In the second step, the IWC profile is estimated using an Ensemble Kalman Smoother (EKS) algorithm that uses the estimated class as a priori information. The results of the study show that the synergy of lidar, radar, and radiometer observations is significant in the retrieval of the IWC profiles. Nevertheless, it should be mentioned that this synergy was found under idealized conditions, and additional work might be required to materialize it in practice. The inclusion of the lidar backscatter observations in the retrieval process has a larger impact on the retrieval performance than the inclusion of the radar observations. As ice clouds have a significant impact on atmospheric radiative processes, this work is relevant to ongoing efforts to reduce uncertainties in climate analyses and projections.

Mircea Grecu↗

Probing Accuracy-Speedup Tradeoff in Machine Learning Surrogates for Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The performance promise of machine learning surrogates of molecular dynamics simulations of soft materials is significant but generally comes at the cost of acquiring large training datasets to learn the complex relationships between input soft material attributes and output properties. Under the constraint of limited high-performance computing resources, optimizing the size of the training datasets becomes paramount. Using an artificial neural network based surrogate for molecular dynamics simulations of confined electrolytes, we explore the tradeoff between surrogate accuracy and computational gains. Accuracy is assessed by computing the root-mean-square errors between the surrogate predictions and the ground truth results obtained via molecular dynamics simulations. The computational performance is judged by evaluating the speedup which incorporates the training dataset creation time. Improvement in accuracy occurs with a loss of speedup, which scales as the inverse of the training dataset size. Furthermore, the link between surrogate generalizability and the accuracy-speedup tradeoff is assessed by examining the errors incurred in surrogate predictions on unseen, interpolated input variables and developing a net speedup metric to capture the associated gains.

Anions↗

Optimization of Geometric Perturbations on a Rod Moving Through a High Explosive Target

After completing a study to ensure the simulation results were converged, several high resolution 3D Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) simulations of copper rods impacting a high explosive (LX14) target were performed. This was then formulated into an optimization problem: I wanted to find the optimum shape and location of a perturbation on the rod that would maximize its erosion after it left the target. The shape of the perturbation was modeled as a 2D Gaussian bump and parameterized by its location along the rod axis (z 0 ) and amplitude (A). The final mass of the coherent part of the rod as it leaves the target was used as a metric to represent the erosion of the rod, and the optimization was formulated to maximize this metric with respect to the aforementioned design variables. Due to the expensive nature of the high-fidelity 3D SPH simulations, a surrogate model needed to be chosen so that many function calls to the optimizer would be feasible. Thus, a strategic full factorial sampling plan was chosen to build a dataset, which consisted of 24 high-fidelity simulations. Two surrogate models, a third order polynomial regression model and a Gaussian Process Model, were analyzed using a 14%/86% test/train holdout technique. The root mean square and R2 score of the test set was used to determine the best model, and the third order polynomial regression model was chosen as the surrogate model. Finally, the Nelder-Mead Simplex and Basin-hopping optimization algorithms were implemented, and it was found that the two algorithms gave slightly different optimum values. Nelder-Mead gave an optimum point of [z* 0 ;A*] = [9:9;0:4] and Basin-Hopping gave an optimum value of x* = [z* 0 ;A*] = [9:2;0:1].

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

Modeling is an important tool for understanding AMOC on all timescales. Mechanistic studies of modern AMOC variability have been hampered by a lack of consistency between free-running models and the sensitivity of AMOC to resolution and parameterization. Recent work within the framework of the phase two Coordinated Ocean- Reference Experiments (CORE-II) addresses this issue head on, looking at model differences of AMOC mean state and interannual variability. One consistent feature across the models is that AMOC mean transport is related to mixed layer depths and Labrador Sea salt content, whereas interannual variability is primarily associated with Labrador Sea temperature anomalies. This is consistent with the hypothesized importance of salt balance for AMOC variability on geological timescales. The simulated relationships between AMOC and subsurface temperature anomalies in fully coupled climate models reveal subsurface AMOC fingerprints that could be used to reconstruct historical AMOC variations at low frequency.With the lack of long-term AMOC observations, models of ocean state that assimilate observational data have been explored as a way to reconstruct AMOC, but comparisons between models indicate they are quite variable in their AMOC representations. Karspeck et al. (2015) found that historical reconstructions of AMOC in such models are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation procedure. The ocean data assimilation community continues to address these issues through improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information.Two objectives of paleoclimate modeling are 1) to provide mechanistic information for interpretation of paleoclimate observations, and 2) to test the ability of predictive models to simulate Earth's climate under different background forcing states. In a good example of the first objective, Schmittner and Lund (2015) and Menviel et al. (2014) provided key information about the proxy signals expected under freshwater disturbance of AMOC, which were used to support the paleoclimate observations made by Henry et al. (2016). In an example of the second objective, Muglia and Schmittner (2015) analyzed Third Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) models of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and found consistently more intense and deeper AMOC transports relative to preindustrial simulations, counter to the paleoclimate consensus of LGM conditions, indicating that some processes are not well represented in the PMIP3 models. One challenge is to find adequate paleo observations against which to test these models. PMIP is now in phase 4 (part of CMIP6), which includes experiments covering five periods in Earth's history: the last millennium, last glacial maximum, last interglacial, and the mid-Pliocene. Newly compiled paleoclimate datasets from the PAGES2k project, more transient simulations, and participation of isotope enabled models planned for CMIP6PMIP4 will enable richer paleo data-model comparisons in the near future.

Kilbourne, Hali↗

Improved representation of the global dust cycle using observational constraints on dust properties and abundance

Even though desert dust is the most abundant aerosol by mass in Earth's atmosphere, atmospheric models struggle to accurately represent its spatial and temporal distribution. These model errors are partially caused by fundamental difficulties in simulating dust emission in coarse-resolution models and in accurately representing dust microphysical properties. Here we mitigate these problems by developing a new methodology that yields an improved representation of the global dust cycle. We present an analytical framework that uses inverse modeling to integrate an ensemble of global model simulations with observational constraints on the dust size distribution, extinction efficiency, and regional dust aerosol optical depth. We then compare the inverse model results against independent measurements of dust surface concentration and deposition flux and find that errors are reduced by approximately a factor of 2 relative to current model simulations of the Northern Hemisphere dust cycle. The inverse model results show smaller improvements in the less dusty Southern Hemisphere, most likely because both the model simulations and the observational constraints used in the inverse model are less accurate. On a global basis, we find that the emission flux of dust with a geometric diameter up to 20 µm (PM20) is approximately 5000 Tg yr−1, which is greater than most models account for. This larger PM20 dust flux is needed to match observational constraints showing a large atmospheric loading of coarse dust. We obtain gridded datasets of dust emission, vertically integrated loading, dust aerosol optical depth, (surface) concentration, and wet and dry deposition fluxes that are resolved by season and particle size. As our results indicate that this dataset is more accurate than current model simulations and the MERRA-2 dust reanalysis product, it can be used to improve quantifications of dust impacts on the Earth system.

Dust cycle↗

Advancements in Wind Integration Study Data Modeling: The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit; Preprint

Regional wind integration studies in the United States require detailed wind power output data at many locations to perform simulations of how the power system will operate under high-penetration scenarios. The wind data sets that serve as inputs into the study must realistically reflect the ramping characteristics, spatial and temporal correlations, and capacity factors of the simulated wind plants, as well as be time synchronized with available load profiles. The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit described in this paper fulfills these requirements. A wind resource dataset, wind power production time series, and simulated forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model run on a nationwide 2-km grid at 5-min resolution will be made publicly available for more than 110,000 onshore and offshore wind power production sites.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

In situ tumor model for longitudinal in silico imaging trials

Abstract Objective.In this article, we introduce a computational model for simulating the growth of breast cancer lesions accounting for the stiffness of surrounding anatomical structures.Approach.In our model, ligaments are classified as the most rigid structures while the softer parts of the breast are occupied by fat and glandular tissues As a result of these variations in tissue elasticity, the rapidly proliferating tumor cells are met with differential resistance. It is found that these cells are likely to circumvent stiffer terrains such as ligaments, instead electing to proliferate preferentially within the more yielding confines of the breast’s soft topography. By manipulating the interstitial tumor pressure in direct proportion to the elastic constants of the tissues surrounding the tumor, this model thus creates the potential for realizing a database of unique lesion morphology sculpted by the distinctive topography of each local anatomical infrastructure. We modeled the growth of simulated lesions within volumes extracted from fatty breast models, developed by Graffet alwith a resolution of 50μm generated with the open-source and readily available Virtual Imaging Clinical Trials for Regulatory Evaluation (VICTRE) imaging pipeline. To visualize and validate the realism of the lesion models, we leveraged the imaging component of the VICTRE pipeline, which replicates the siemens mammomat inspiration mammography system in a digital format. This system was instrumental in generating digital mammogram (DM) images for each breast model containing the simulated lesions.Results.By utilizing the DM images, we were able to effectively illustrate the imaging characteristics of the lesions as they integrated with the anatomical backgrounds. Our research also involved a reader study that compared 25 simulated DM regions of interest (ROIs) with inserted lesions from our models with DM ROIs from the DDSM dataset containing real manifestations of breast cancer. In general the simulation time for the lesions was approximately 2.5 hours, but it varied depending on the lesion’s local environment.Significance.The lesion growth model will facilitate and enhance longitudinal in silico trials investigating the progression of breast cancer.

Engineering↗

Dynamic Temporal Graph Sequence Data for Resilience-Oriented Distribution Network Reconfiguration

This dataset comprises temporal dynamic graph sequences generated from power grid simulations focused on grid reconfiguration to enhance resilience. The simulations model failure propagation under varying conditions, with nodes assigned distinct failure probabilities. For each time step, the dataset captures the evolution of node states (functional or failed) and features critical to grid operations, such as pv_output, load_profile, load_dispatch, dg_output, loss, and voltage. Node types include sources, normal loads, and nodes with specific equipment like PVs, micro turbines, or shunt capacitors. The dataset is structured to support the training of dynamic graph neural networks, facilitating research on node feature prediction and edge dynamics under failure scenarios. Three distinct configurations are included, providing a robust foundation for modeling power grid resilience.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

FY25 MOOSE Usability Improvements: 3D Meshing Capabilities, Initiation of Geometry Support for Monte Carlo Tools, and Enhancement of MOOSE/Workbench User Input Interactions

Usability improvements have been made to MOOSE and Workbench in FY25 to enhance usability and user workflows. Assorted enhancement have been made to MOOSE’s intrinsic meshing capabilities in order to enable more flexible and complex meshing of nuclear reactor systems, in particular for 3D applications. Mesh generators have been added to perform operations such as batch mesh generation, surface mesh generation, and creation of 3D transition layers. These mesh generation capabilities make it much easier to generate high quality non-extruded 3D meshes. Additionally, work to integrate Monte Carlo reactor physics simulations into MOOSE-based multi-physics workflows has reached another milestone with the implementation of the Constructive Solid Geometry (CSG) base framework. This framework lays the foundation for mesh generators to offer the user a generic CSG output option (as opposed to a finite element mesh). To support users, workshop on the MOOSE Reactor Module was delivered which featured hands-on examples using the NEAMS Workbench on INL’s High Performance Computing system. Recent updates to the NEAMS Workbench, WASP, and the MOOSE language server have introduced several improvements aimed at making MOOSE-based simulation setup and input management faster, more accurate, and easier to use. Key capabilities that have been added include multi-tab-stop autocompletion, visual input diagnostics, developer-directed data visualizations, upgraded ParaView integration, and Workspace-level file tracking. Together, these changes make it easier for users to build, validate, and manage complex MOOSE-based simulation models — especially those involving reusable components, included files, and datasets. The improvements are designed to save time, reduce input errors, and help users get to a successful simulation run faster, with more confidence in the results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗