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At least 883 records · Page 49

Potential of minicomputer/array-processor system for nonlinear finite-element analysis

The potential of using a minicomputer/array-processor system for the efficient solution of large-scale, nonlinear, finite-element problems is studied. A Prime 750 is used as the host computer, and a software simulator residing on the Prime is employed to assess the performance of the Floating Point Systems AP-120B array processor. Major hardware characteristics of the system such as virtual memory and parallel and pipeline processing are reviewed, and the interplay between various hardware components is examined. Effective use of the minicomputer/array-processor system for nonlinear analysis requires the following: (1) proper selection of the computational procedure and the capability to vectorize the numerical algorithms; (2) reduction of input-output operations; and (3) overlapping host and array-processor operations. A detailed discussion is given of techniques to accomplish each of these tasks. Two benchmark problems with 1715 and 3230 degrees of freedom, respectively, are selected to measure the anticipated gain in speed obtained by using the proposed algorithms on the array processor.

Strohkorb, G. A.↗

Transient aerodynamic forces on a fighter model during simulated approach and landing with thrust reversers

Previous wind tunnel tests of fighter configurations have shown that thrust reverser jets can induce large, unsteady aerodynamic forces and moments during operation in ground proximity. This is a concern for STOL configurations using partial reversing to spoil the thrust while keeping the engine output near military (MIL) power during landing approach. A novel test technique to simulate approach and landing was developed under a cooperative Northrop/NASA/USAF program. The NASA LaRC Vortex Research Facility was used for the experiments in which a 7-percent F-18 model was moved horizontally at speeds of up to 100 feet per second over a ramp simulating an aircraft to ground rate of closure similar to a no-flare STOL approach and landing. This paper presents an analysis of data showing the effect of reverser jet orientation and jet dynamic pressure ratio on the transient forces for different angles of attack, and flap and horizontal tail deflection. It was found, for reverser jets acting parallel to the plane of symmetry, that the jets interacted strongly with the ground, starting approximately half a span above the ground board. Unsteady rolling moment transients, large enough to cause the probable upset of an aircraft, and strong normal force and pitching moment transients were measured. For jets directed 40 degrees outboard, the transients were similar to the jet-off case, implying only minor interaction.

Humphreys, A. P.↗

Global Qualitative Flow-Path Modeling for Local State Determination in Simulation and Analysis

For qualitative modeling and analysis, a general qualitative abstraction of power transmission variables (flow and effort) for elements of flow paths includes information on resistance, net flow, permissible directions of flow, and qualitative potential is discussed. Each type of component model has flow-related variables and an associated internal flow map, connected into an overall flow network of the system. For storage devices, the implicit power transfer to the environment is represented by "virtual" circuits that include an environmental junction. A heterogeneous aggregation method simplifies the path structure. A method determines global flow-path changes during dynamic simulation and analysis, and identifies corresponding local flow state changes that are effects of global configuration changes. Flow-path determination is triggered by any change in a flow-related device variable in a simulation or analysis. Components (path elements) that may be affected are identified, and flow-related attributes favoring flow in the two possible directions are collected for each of them. Next, flow-related attributes are determined for each affected path element, based on possibly conflicting indications of flow direction. Spurious qualitative ambiguities are minimized by using relative magnitudes and permissible directions of flow, and by favoring flow sources over effort sources when comparing flow tendencies. The results are output to local flow states of affected components.

Malin, Jane T.↗

Modeling of advanced accelerator concepts

Computer modeling is essential to research on Advanced Accelerator Concepts (AAC), as well as to their design and operation. This paper summarizes the current status and future needs of AAC systems and reports on several key aspects of (i) high-performance computing (including performance, portability, scalability, advanced algorithms, scalable I/Os and In-Situ analysis), (ii) the benefits of ecosystems with integrated workflows based on standardized input and output and with integrated frameworks developed as a community, and (iii) sustainability and reliability (including code robustness and usability).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles

The added value of using regional climate models (RCMs) to downscale data from general circulation models (GCMs) has often been questioned and researched. Although several studies have used different methods to identify (and in some cases quantify) the added value, there is still a need to find a general metric that quantifies the added value of any variable. This paper builds on past studies to propose a new metric of added value in the simulation of present-day climate which measures the difference in the probability density functions (PDFs) at each grid-cell between a model and an observation source, and then compares the results of the RCM and GCM in order to spatially compute the added value index. The same method is also adapted to quantify the climate change downscaling signal in a way that is consistent with the present-day metric. These new metrics are tested on the daily precipitation output from the EURO-CORDEX and CORDEX-CORE projection ensembles and reveal an overall positive added value of RCMs, especially at the tail-end of the distribution. Higher added value is obtained in areas of complex topography and coast-lines, as well as in tropical regions. Areas with large added value in present-day climate are consistent with areas of significant climate change downscaling signal in the RCP 8.5 far future simulations, and when the analysis is repeated at a low-resolution. The use of different resolution observations shows that the added value tends to decrease when models are compared to low-resolution observation datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

The new Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) ensemble provides high-resolution, consistent regional climate change projections for the major inhabited areas of the world. It serves as a solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services in addition to existing CORDEX simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the CORDEX-CORE simulation ensemble, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CORDEX community. An overview of the annual and monthly mean climate change information in selected regions in different CORDEX domains is presented for temperature and precipitation, providing the foundation for detailed follow-up studies and applications. Initially, two regional climate models (RCMs), REMO and RegCM were used to downscale global climate model output. The driving simulations by AR5 global climate models (AR5-GCMs) were selected to cover the spread of high, medium, and low equilibrium climate sensitivity at a global scale. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble has doubled the spatial resolution compared to the previously existing CORDEX simulations in most of the regions (25 $\,\mathrm {km}$ (0.22 $^{\circ }$ /jats:inline-formula>) versus 50 $\,\mathrm {km}$ (0.44 $^{\circ }$ )) leading to a potentially improved representation of, e.g., physical processes in the RCMs. The analysis focuses on changes in the IPCC physical climate reference regions. The results show a general reasonable representation of the spread of the temperature and precipitation climate change signals of the AR5-GCMs by the CORDEX-CORE simulations in the investigated regions in all CORDEX domains by mostly covering the AR5 interquartile range of climate change signals. The simulated CORDEX-CORE monthly climate change signals mostly follow the AR5-GCMs, although for specific regions they show a different change in the course of the year compared to the AR5-GCMs, especially for RCP8.5, which needs to be investigated further in region specific process studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of numerical models for seismic fluid-structure-interaction analysis of nuclear, safety-related equipment

Seismic design, qualification, and risk assessment of nuclear safety-related vessels filled with liquid will have to consider the interaction between the vessel (tank), the contained liquid, and submerged components, if any. Seismic fluid-structure-interaction (FSI) analysis of nuclear vessels will rely on numerical models, which are required to be verified and validated. This study validates previously-verified numerical models using test data generated from earthquake-simulator experiments involving a cylindrical tank. Two solvers in LS-DYNA for FSI simulations are used for the numerical analysis: Arbitrary-Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and Incompressible Computational Fluid Dynamics (ICFD). Numerical and test results are compared for responses critical to seismic design of advanced reactor vessels: hydrodynamic pressures on the tank wall, reactions at the support, and wave heights of the contained liquid. Analysis is performed for one-, two-, and three-directional seismic inputs with a range of intensity, and rocking motions. The accuracy of the numerical results and different methods for outputting wave heights are discussed. Recommendations for validation of seismic FSI numerical models of advanced reactors are provided. As a result, the validation exercise presented in this study is broadly applicable to cylindrical tanks, regardless of industry sector.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Application of the Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis Method to the Analysis of a Realistic Structure

The Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis method is a new technique for obtaining the statistics of a desired response engineering quantity for a structure with non-deterministic parameters. The method uses measured data from modal testing of the structure as the input random variables, rather than more "primitive" quantities like geometry or material variation. This modal information is much more comprehensive and easily measured than the "primitive" information. The probabilistic analysis is carried out using either response surface reliability methods or Monte Carlo simulation. A previous work verified the feasibility of the PDS method on a simple seven degree-of-freedom spring-mass system. In this paper, extensive issues involved with applying the method to a realistic three-substructure system are examined, and free and forced response analyses are performed. The results from using the method are promising, especially when the lack of alternatives for obtaining quantitative output for probabilistic structures is considered.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

Design Power Control Strategies of Grid-Forming Inverters for Microgrid Application: Preprint

This paper compares two control schemes in the application control layer of a non-PLL grid-forming (GFM) inverter to gain the insights and understanding of how the two schemes affect the dynamic responses of the GFM inverters and the transition operation of microgrids. Both schemes can achieve smooth microgrid transition operation and power tracking, however, the first scheme expects to exhibit more transients due to the feedforward of the inverse dynamic model of the output filter. Simulation results show that both control schemes achieve successful transition operation with smooth transients, and the second control scheme exhibits slightly better transients in the system frequency during islanding operation and the first one has slightly superior transients in the system frequency during reconnection operation. The power tracking performance in the grid-connected mode is evaluated, which shows that the first scheme has better active power tracking and the second one has better reactive power tracking. The analysis and results are useful to develop reliable control schemes for non-PLL GFM inverters because more and more inverters will work as non-PLL grid-forming sources in the future grids due to better stability and reliability.

grid-forming inverter↗

A model for simulation and processing of radar images

A model for recording, processing, presentation, and analysis of radar images in digital form is presented. The observed image is represented as having two random components, one which models the variation due to the coherent addition of electromagnetic energy scattered from different objects in the illuminated areas. This component is referred to as fading. The other component is a representation of the terrain variation which can be described as the actual signal which the radar is attempting to measure. The combination of these two components provides a description of radar images as being the output of a linear space-variant filter operating on the product of the fading and terrain random processes. In addition, the model is applied to a digital image processing problem using the design and implementation of enhancement scene. Finally, parallel approaches are being employed as possible means of solving other processing problems such as SAR image map-matching, data compression, and pattern recognition.

Stiles, J. A.↗

Characterizing Detailed Grain Shape and Size Distribution Properties of Lunar Regolith

Introduction: As the nation prepares to return to the Moon, there is an increasing need for testing tools, instruments, and equipment in simulated environments on Earth to ensure successful operations during lunar missions. Regolith will affect all aspects of future lunar missions, from plume interactions during landing to space suit and tool design [1]. Because of this, it is important to understand the grain shape and size properties of lunar regolith and how those influence regolith behavior in order to prepare for these missions. This knowledge is also vital to create more accurate lunar regolith simulants for testing equipment in a lunar environment. While particle size analyses have been performed on most Apollo soils using simple sieving, shape has only been crudely addressed [2]. This work analyzes 4 lunar regolith samples to provide a better understanding of these size and shape parameters and will provide a more accurate baseline of data to create high-fidelity lunar regolith simulants. Methods: New technologies exist today that are capable of measuring size and shape simultaneously for hundreds of thousands of particles in a single measurement. We conducted a rigorous analysis of the particle size distribution (PSD) as well as the size-dependent 2D and 3D shape parameters of lunar regolith samples of different compositions and maturity levels. This analysis was done using a Microtrac SYNC which provides a unique combination of tri-laser diffraction and Dynamic Image Analysis (DIA). Sample Selection. Four regolith samples were selected for analysis based on maturity level and lunar terrain type: • 10084 – Mature high-Ti mare regolith • 15601 – Immature low-Ti mare regolith • 64501 – Mature highland regolith • 67461 – Immature highland regolith Sample Analysis. After receiving the samples, each sample was imaged with an optical microscope (Figure 1). To obtain 2D and 3D particle size and shape, 0.1 g of each sample was then added to the SYNC for analysis, which outputs more than 30 size and shape parameters for each individual grain as well as the complete size distribution from 0.01-2000 μm by blending laser diffraction and DIA together. For the 0.1 g sample masses requested, ~100,000 grains per sample were captured by DIA. Results: From the PSD analysis, it can be seen that the average particle size of 10084 is ~24.5 µm which is much smaller than the average particle size of the Apollo sample collection (~72 µm) [3], while the average particle size of samples 15601, 64501, and 67461 are larger than the Apollo sample average at ~106 µm, ~103 µm, and ~118.5 µm respectively. The size and shape measurements for the samples output ~30 parameters, four of which were focused on for this study: sphericity, aspect ratio, roundness, and concavity (Figure 3). However, after analyzing the plots it was found that only sphericity and aspect ratio showed differences between the samples. These two parameters are measured on a scale from 0 to 1, with 1 being a perfect sphere with equal dimensions. The results show that the sphericity values are slightly high-er for the mature samples 10084 and 64501 (~0.96) than they are for samples 15601 and 67461 (~0.95) (Figure 4). The aspect ratio values are slightly lower for samples 64501 (~0.7) and 67461 (~0.74) than they are for samples 10084 (~0.76) and 15601 (~0.8) (Figure 5). Discussion: Mature regoliths are those that have been exposed to micrometeorite and solar wind bombardment for long periods of time, breaking up particles and causing them to become more rounded [4]. Therefore, the smaller particle sizes and higher sphericity values for samples 10084 and 64501 are expected due to their higher maturity level compared to 15601 and 67461. However, the aspect ratio values are not dependent on maturity and are instead dependent on terrain type. The lower aspect ratio values for the high-land samples is potentially due to the higher plagioclase content, which occurs in elongated particles and does not break down as easily as the pyroxenes or olivines that are present in the mare. Conclusion and Future Work: The results of this work provide a baseline of high-quality data that will contribute to the creation of high-fidelity lunar simulants and will greatly benefit NASA’s efforts of establishing a human presence on the Moon. Future work includes performing unsupervised image classification on the ~105 particle images per sample in order to identify different classes of grains. These grain classes can then be linked to detailed shape properties, and the relative abundance of each class in the samples can be compared. Acknowledgments: We would like to thank the Extraterrestrial Materials Analysis Group (ExMAG) and the Astromaterials Allocation Review Board (AARB) for allocating lunar regolith samples 10084,9010, 15601,365, 64501,249, and 67461,171 for this work. References: [1] Taylor, L. A. et al. (2005) AIAA #2510. [2] Katagiri et al. (2015) ASCE. [3] Carrier III, W. D. (2005) Lunar Geotech Institute Tech Report. [4] McKay, D. S. et al. (1991) The Lunar Sourcebook, Chapter 7.

S R Deitrick↗

Hydrogen Cyanide in the Upper Troposphere: GEM-AQ Simulation and Comparison with ACE-FTS Observations

We investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of hydrogen cyanide (HCN) in the upper troposphere through numerical simulations and comparison with observations from a space-based instrument. To perform the simulations, we used the Global Environmental Multiscale Air Quality model (GEM-AQ), which is based on the threedimensional Gobal multiscale model developed by the Meteorological Service of Canada for operational weather forecasting. The model was run for the period 2004-2006 on a 1.5deg x 1.5deg global grid with 28 hybrid vertical levels from the surface up to 10 hPa. Objective analysis data from the Canadian Meteorological Centre were used to update the meteorological fields every 24 h. Fire emission fluxes of gas species were generated by using year-specific inventories of carbon emissions with 8-day temporal resolution from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED) version 2. The model output is compared with HCN profiles measured by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) instrument onboard the Canadian SCISAT-1 satellite. High values of up to a few ppbv are observed in the tropics in the Southern Hemisphere; the enhancement in HCN volume mixing ratios in the upper troposphere is most prominent in October. Low upper-tropospheric mixing ratios of less than 100 pptv are mostly recorded at middle and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere in May-July. Mixing ratios in Northern Hemisphere peak in the boreal summer. The amplitude of the seasonal variation is less pronounced than in the Southern Hemisphere. The comparison with the satellite data shows that in the upper troposphere GEM-AQ perform7s well globally for all seasons, except at northern hi gh and middle latitudes in surnmer, where the model has a large negative bias, and in the tropics in winter and spring, where it exhibits large positive bias. This may reflect inaccurate emissions or possible inaccuracies in the emission profile. The model is able to explain most of the observed variability in the upper troposphere HCN field, includin g the interannual variations in the observed mixing ratio. A complementary comparison with daily total columns of HCN from two middle latitude ground-based stations in Northern Japan for the same simulation period shows that the model captures the observed seasonal variation and also points to an underestimation of model emissions in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer. The estimated average global emission equals 1.3 Tg N/yr. The average atmospheric burden is 0.53 Tg N, and the corresponding lifetime is 4.9 months.

Lupu, A.↗

An ultrahigh-resolution E3SM land model simulation framework and its first application to the Seward Peninsula in Alaska

The availability of supercomputers and state-of-science datasets has made it possible to conduct large-scale land simulations at an ultrahigh-resolution. This study reported a computational framework for land surface simulation using the E3SM land model (ELM) at an unprecedented resolution (1 km x 1 km gridcell). The ultrahigh-resolution ELM (uELM) simulation framework includes three parts: (1) high-resolution atmospheric forcing and surface properties dataset generation, (2) massive gridcell-based simulation, and (3) large-scale simulation results analysis. Additionally, we implemented the uELM simulation framework and completed the first 1 km x 1 km terrestrial ecosystem simulation (from 1850 to 2014) over the Seward Peninsula in Alaska (78,000 km 2 ). The experiment contained two phases: a spin-up simulation and a transient simulation, and required five weeks of calculations using 320 cores in a 44-node Linux HPC computer. It created approximately 1.3 TB of data from the transient simulation alone (1850 - present). We selected sample results (monthly and daily simulation outputs) to illustrate the temporal and spatial variations of several variables in high-latitude Arctic ecosystems’ water, energy, and carbon cycles. At last, we summarized the lessons learned and proposed new developments for full-scale uELM simulations over the entire North American continent (approximately 22,000,000 km 2 ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Optics-based approach to thermal management of photovoltaics: Selective-spectral and radiative cooling

For commercial one-sun solar modules, up to 80% of the incoming sunlight may be dissipated as heat, potentially raising the temperature 20-30 °C higher than the ambient. In the long term, extreme self-heating erodes efficiency and shortens lifetime, thereby dramatically reducing the total energy output. Therefore, it is critically important to develop effective and practical (and preferably passive) cooling methods to reduce operating temperature of photovoltaic (PV) modules. In this paper, we explore two fundamental (but often overlooked) origins of PV self-heating, namely, sub-bandgap absorption and imperfect thermal radiation. The analysis suggests that we redesign the optical properties of the solar module to eliminate parasitic absorption (selective-spectral cooling) and enhance thermal emission (radiative cooling). Comprehensive opto-electro-thermal simulation shows that the proposed techniques would cool one-sun terrestrial solar modules up to 10 °C. As a result, this self-cooling would substantially extend the lifetime for solar modules, with corresponding increase in energy yields and reduced levelized cost of electricity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NOW-23: the 2023 National Offshore Wind Data Set

In this report, we present the latest wind resource data specifically tailored for offshore regions in the United States. The data set, known as the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), has been developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners, and surpasses the previous resource data set, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was released approximately ten years ago, in its offshore component. The WIND Toolkit has been widely utilized by stakeholders involved in wind resource assessments across the continental United States. However, with significant advancements in numerical weather prediction modeling over the past decade, the NOW-23 data set incorporates the latest research and development progress to provide stakeholders with an updated and cutting-edge resource for offshore wind analysis. The NOW-23 data set is created using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its output is available, as for its predecessor, at 5-minute time resolution and 2-kilometer horizontal spatial resolution. However, the NOW-23 data set improves upon the WIND Toolkit through: 1. A modeling period of at least 20 years (and as long as 23 years in selected regions), starting in 2000 (compared to the 7-year 2007–2013 modeling period in the WIND Toolkit). 2. For several offshore regions, a region-specific sensitivity analysis, driven by an ensemble of WRF simulations, to assess the most adequate region-specific WRF setup. 3. An updated WRF model, from Version 3.4 used in the WIND Toolkit to Version 4.2.1 used for the NOW-23 data set, which incorporates significant research advancements. 4. The use of the state-of-the-art reanalysis product ERA5 (which supersedes the older ERA-Interim used in the WIND Toolkit) to provide atmospheric forcing at the WRF domain boundaries. Figure 1 shows the NOW-23 mean wind speed at 160 m above sea level (asl), which we use as proxy for hub-height of a commercial offshore wind turbine in this report across all regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Microgravity Emissions Laboratory Testing of the Light Microscopy Module Control Box Fan

The Microgravity Emissions Laboratory (MEL) was developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center for the characterization, simulation, and verification of the International Space Station (ISS) microgravity environment. This Glenn lab was developed in support of the Fluids and Combustion Facility (FCF). The MEL is a six-degrees-of-freedom inertial measurement system that can characterize the inertial response forces (emissions) of components, subrack payloads, or rack-level payloads down to 10 7g. The inertial force output data generated from the steady-state or transient operations of the test article are used with finite element analysis, statistical energy analysis, and other analysis tools to predict the on-orbit environment at specific science or rack interface locations. Customers of the MEL have used benefits in isolation performance testing in defining available attenuation during the engineering hardware design phase of their experiment s development. The Light Microscopy Module (LMM) Control Box (LCB) fan was tested in the MEL in June and July of 2002. The LMM is planned as a remotely controllable on-orbit microscope subrack facility that will be accommodated in an FCF Fluids Integrated Rack on the ISS. The disturbances measured in the MEL test resulted from operation of the air-circulation fan within the LCB. The objectives of the testing were (1) to identify an isolator to be added to the LCB fan assembly to reduce fan-speed harmonics and (2) to identify the fan-disturbance forcing functions for use in rack-response analysis of the LMM and Fluids Integrated Rack facility. This report describes the MEL, the testing process, and the results from ground-based MEL LCB fan testing.

McNelis, Anne M.↗

Extreme Precipitation in the Southern US Great Plains in the Spring of 2015: Mechanisms and Prediction

During May of 2015, the southern US Great Plains and adjacent Gulf Coast region experienced more than twice the long-term mean precipitation, making it the wettest May since 1895. We investigate the physical mechanisms associated with this event using a suite of large-ensemble regional replay AGCM simulations from the NASA-GEOS model. In these simulations, certain regions of the globe are constrained to closely follow observations while the remainder of the domain is free running, allowing for the isolation of the remote regions that were important for the event. Preliminary analysis provides evidence that the extreme southern US precipitation was linked in part to positive precipitation anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific via a wave train, which ultimately caused anomalous moisture flux from the Gulf of Mexico. An analysis of Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) model output was conducted to explore the subseasonal prediction skill of the event. Several models are able the predict the presence of positive precipitation anomalies in or near the southern US at lead times exceeding 10 days, albeit with errors in the locations and magnitude of the heaviest precipitation anomalies. A more thorough investigation with version 2 of NASA’s GEOS-S2S model shows that the prediction skill stems from the model’s ability to reasonably predict the positive tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies and the initiation of the Rossby wave train that is believed to be linked to the event. The potential causes for limitations in the prediction skill of this event will be explored.

Great Plains↗

Towards improved and more routine Earth system model evaluation in CMIP

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has successfully provided the climate community with a rich collection of simulation output from Earth system models (ESMs) that can be used to understand past climate changes and make projections and uncertainty estimates of the future. Confidence in ESMs can be gained because the models are based on physical principles and reproduce many important aspects of observed climate. More research is required to identify the processes that are most responsible for systematic biases and the magnitude and uncertainty of future projections so that more relevant performance tests can be developed. At the same time, there are many aspects of ESM evaluation that are well established and considered an essential part of systematic evaluation but have been implemented ad hoc with little community coordination. Given the diversity and complexity of ESM analysis, we argue that the CMIP community has reached a critical juncture at which many baseline aspects of model evaluation need to be performed much more efficiently and consistently. We provide a perspective and viewpoint on how a more systematic, open, and rapid performance assessment of the large and diverse number of models that will participate in current and future phases of CMIP can be achieved, and announce our intention to implement such a system for CMIP6. Accomplishing this could also free up valuable resources as many scientists are frequently "re-inventing the wheel" by re-writing analysis routines for well-established analysis methods. A more systematic approach for the community would be to develop and apply evaluation tools that are based on the latest scientific knowledge and observational reference, are well suited for routine use, and provide a wide range of diagnostics and performance metrics that comprehensively characterize model behaviour as soon as the output is published to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). The CMIP infrastructure enforces data standards and conventions for model output and documentation accessible via the ESGF, additionally publishing observations (obs4MIPs) and reanalyses (ana4MIPs) for model intercomparison projects using the same data structure and organization as the ESM output. This largely facilitates routine evaluation of the ESMs, but to be able to process the data automatically alongside the ESGF, the infrastructure needs to be extended with processing capabilities at the ESGF data nodes where the evaluation tools can be executed on a routine basis. Efforts are already underway to develop community-based evaluation tools, and we encourage experts to provide additional diagnostic codes that would enhance this capability for CMIP. And, at the same time, we encourage the community to contribute observations and reanalyses for model evaluation to the obs4MIPs and ana4MIPs archives. The intention is to produce through the ESGF a widely accepted quasi-operational evaluation framework for CMIP6 that would routinely execute a series of standardized evaluation tasks. Over time, as this capability matures, we expect to produce an increasingly systematic characterization of models which, compared with early phases of CMIP, will more quickly and openly identify the strengths and weaknesses of the simulations. This will also reveal whether long-standing model errors remain evident in newer models and will assist modelling groups in improving their models. Finally, this framework will be designed to readily incorporate updates, including new observations and additional diagnostics and metrics as they become available from the research community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗