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At least 883 records · Page 49

Recent trends in power system reliability and implications for evaluating future investments in resiliency

Here, this study examines the relationship between annual changes in electricity reliability reported by a large cross-section of U.S. electricity distribution utilities over a period of 13 years and a broad set of potential explanatory variables, including weather and utility characteristics. We find statistically significant correlations between the average number of power interruptions experienced annually and above average wind speeds, precipitation, lightning strikes, and a measure of population density: customers per line mile. We also find significant relationships between the average number of minutes of power interruptions experienced and above average wind speeds, precipitation, cooling degree-days, and one strategy used to mitigate the impacts of severe weather: the amount of underground transmission and distribution line miles. Perhaps most importantly, we find a significant time trend of increasing annual average number of minutes of power interruptions over time—especially when interruptions associated with extreme weather are included. Lastly, the research method described in this analysis can provide a basis for future efforts to project long-term trends in reliability and the associated benefits of strategies to improve grid resiliency to severe weather—both in the U.S. and abroad.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Neural-network based collision operators for the Boltzmann equation

Kinetic gas dynamics in rarefied and moderate-density regimes have complex behavior associated with collisional processes. These processes are generally defined by convolution integrals over a high-dimensional space (as in the Boltzmann operator), or require evaluating complex auxiliary variables (as in Rosenbluth potentials in Fokker-Planck operators) that are challenging to implement and computationally expensive to evaluate. In this work, we develop a data-driven neural network model that augments a simple and inexpensive BGK collision operator with a machine-learned correction term, which improves the fidelity of the simple operator with a small overhead to overall runtime. The composite collision operator has a tunable fidelity and, in this work, is trained using and tested against a direct-simulation Monte-Carlo (DSMC) collision operator.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Tracking Physicochemical Conditions of Evaporite Deposition by Stable Magnesium Isotopes: A Case Study of Late Permian Langbeinites

Magnesium isotopic compositions of evaporite deposits may record information concerning brine evolution during deposition. We report Mg isotopic values (δ 26 MgDSM3) measured from an evaporite deposit of langbeinite (K 2 Mg 2 (SO 4 ) 3 ) found in the Permian Salado Formation. We used these data to model Mg isotope fractionation between langbeinite and its parent brine. In addition, both measured and theoretical results are used to estimate precipitation temperature and interpret depositional environment. The Salado langbeinite δ 26 Mg values are relatively low and fall within a relatively narrow range (–4.12 ± 0.03‰ to -3.81 ± 0.07‰). Equilibrium fractionation factors between langbeinite and aqueous Mg 2+ solutions were calculated using quantum chemical density functional theory. All computations were performed at the B3LYP/6-31 + G(d,p) level. Solvation effects were addressed using a solvent model (“water-droplet” approach) and mineral structures were investigated using volume variable cluster models (VVCM). The equilibrium Mg isotopic fractionation factors α between langbeinite and model brine solution we obtained are 1.0005, 1.0004, and 1.0003 (Δ 26 Mg langb-water ≈10 3 lnα = 0.473‰, 0.390‰, and 0.322‰) at 10°C, 25°C, and 40°C, respectively. These relatively large equilibrium fractionation factors indicate significant Mg isotope fractionation between langbeinite and its parent brine during precipitation, as langbeinite preferentially incorporates the heavier 26 Mg and 25 Mg isotopes. Rayleigh distillation modeling of the Salado langbeinite's relatively light Mg isotopic composition requires δ 26 Mg DSM3 values of -4‰ for the parent brine. Models favor a precipitation temperature as high as 40°C under equilibrium conditions. Finally, potential disequilibrium precipitation conditions suggested by Mg isotopic data also imply rapid deposition in a hot, arid sedimentary environment prevailing in the southwestern U.S. during the Late Permian.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Relativistic perturbations in ΛCDM: Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches

We study the relativistic dynamics of a pressure-less and irrotational fluid of dark matter (CDM) with a cosmological constant (Λ), up to second order in cosmological perturbation theory. In our analysis we also account for vector and tensor perturbations and include primordial non-Gaussianity. We consider three gauges: the synchronous-comoving gauge, the Poisson gauge and the total matter gauge, where the first is the unique relativistic Lagrangian frame of reference, and the latters are convenient gauge choices for Eulerian frames. Our starting point is the metric and fluid variables in the Poisson gauge up to second order. We then perform the gauge transformations to the synchronous-comoving gauge and subsequently to the total matter gauge. Our expressions for the metrics, densities, velocities, and the gauge generators are novel and coincide with known results in the limit of a vanishing cosmological constant.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Legacy Survey of Space and Time Data Preview 1: dia_object dataset type

The Legacy Survey of Space and Time Data Preview 1 (DP1) is the first release of data from the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. It consists of raw and calibrated single-epoch images, co-adds, difference images, detection catalogs, and other derived data products. DP1 is based on 1792 science-grade optical/near-infrared exposures acquired over 48 distinct nights by the Rubin Commissioning Camera, LSSTComCam, on the Simonyi Survey Telescope at the Summit Facility on Cerro Pachón, Chile during the first on-sky commissioning campaign in late 2024. DP1 covers a total of approximately 15 sq. deg. over seven roughly equally-sized non-contiguous fields, each independently observed in six broad photometric bands, ugrizy, spanning a range of stellar densities and latitudes and overlapping with external reference datasets. This dataset is a subset of the full data release consisting of the dia_object dataset type. These are derived properties for transient and variable objects. This release contains 25 datasets of this type.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Development of LWR Fuels with Enhanced Accident Tolerance ATF Feasibility Analysis Report Deliverable for the Westinghouse Accident Tolerant Fuel Program

The Westinghouse Electric Company LLC (Westinghouse) accident tolerant fuel (ATF) program utilizes chromium (Cr) coated zirconium alloy cladding with uranium silicide (U 3 Si 2 ) high density/high thermal conductivity fuel for its lead test rod (LTR) program with irradiation beginning in 2019. The lead test assembly (LTA) program will use both SiC/SiC composites and Cr coated zirconium alloy claddings with the high density/high thermal conductivity U 3 Si 2 pellet which will begin in 2022. Over the past several years, Westinghouse has tested the Cr coated zirconium (Zr) and silicon carbide (SiC) claddings in autoclaves and in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) reactor and the U 3 Si 2 pellets have been tested in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). High temperature tests at the state-of-the-art Westinghouse facilities in Churchill, PA have been carried out to determine the time and temperature limits for the SiC and Cr coated zirconium claddings. Fuel rod and assembly design in preparation for the LTR and LTA programs is underway as well as licensing efforts with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Finally, accident analyses coupled with economic evaluations for both operating savings as well as fuel savings have been initiated. Cr coated zirconium alloy claddings showed low corrosion rates in both autoclave and in-reactor tests and will be fabricated using commercial processes for the first LTRs for insertion in 2019. Current autoclave results for SiC composite claddings indicate that a corrosion rate of fewer than 2 micrometers per year which meets corrosion requirements may be achieved under normal operating conditions. Modular Accident Analysis Program 5 (MAAP5) calculations indicate that solid fission products can be contained within SiC cladding for up to two hours longer than current Zr based cladding in a station blackout scenario. This additional time is due to the much higher temperature capability of SiC (~2000°C). These two hours can be used to implement additional response options instituted through the FLEX program by reactor operators. While the Cr coated Zr alloy option offers more modest ATF gains (~200°C higher than bare Zr) in similar situations, the coatings do delay the runaway oxidation encountered by uncoated zirconium cladding. Both ATF cladding options also reduce hydrogen production which dramatically reduces primary system and containment pressure and the risk of fission product release beyond containment in the unlikely event of an accident. The lower pressure in the system allows more time to feed cooling water to the core, resulting in the avoidance of fuel melting. The coping time is extended indefinitely as long as the water flow continues. SiC exhibits the highest accident tolerance of any cladding and significant advances in understanding the design, manufacture and accident behavior of SiC cladding have been made. Department of Energy support is needed to continue the on-going experimental work addressing the interaction between U 3 Si 2 and SiC at temperatures >1200°C, the effect of SiC manufacturing methods and manufacturing variability on physical properties, and the ability to predict the mechanical properties of SiC composites based on the composite design. Additionally, experimental work on methods to rapidly fabricate SiC composite structures with high density and reduce the fabrication price of SiC fibers while maintaining a high level of performance is needed. Minimal (<1%) swelling of U 3 Si 2 and subsequent fission gas release has been demonstrated up to 20 MWd/kgU. Irradiation experiments with U 3 Si 2 fuel in ATR to determine these properties at 40 to 50 MWd/kgU are underway. These experiments will provide the data needed to license fuel rod design codes. Research is continuing on production methods for making U 3 Si 2 from UF 6 without going through the U metal step. Oxidation tests of fuel pellets and powder in steam and synthetic air indicate that U 3 Si 2 has a lower oxidation reaction initiation temperature than UO 2 . Options to reduce the U 3 Si 2 oxidation rate are being explored. A hybrid fuel design using pellets with the weight ratio of 30%/70% U 3 Si 2 /UN is currently undergoing testing in the ATR. This approach is being explored to further increase the positive economics of the U 3 Si 2 fuel. In addition to the work supported by the USDOE, research and testing activities are being carried on in a world-wide effort funded by many countries such as Sweden, United Kingdom, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Germany, Japan and France. This work is being facilitated through the Westinghouse led Collaboration for Advanced Research on Accident Tolerant Fuel (CARAT) program. Annual meetings are organized by Westinghouse as a venue for presentation of this work and to provide for the cross-fertilization of ideas among the many outstanding researchers in the ATF area. Since SiC, coated cladding and high density fuel options are not currently used in the nuclear industry, support from the government and industry members is needed to further the significant effort of setting new standards. The same is true for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) which must review and approve the commercial use of these new fuels since all current regulations are oriented toward Zr/ UO 2 fuel. There are no showstoppers for accident tolerant fuel technologies when considering supply chain, fabrication, enrichment suppliers, production, and licensing. Due to the cost savings from higher density fuel and the accident tolerance of coated claddings, Exelon has identified potential commercial plants to host the LTRs and LTAs. Planning is underway to implement this schedule.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Benchmarking intra-nuclear cascade models for neutrino scattering with relativistic optical potentials

The description of final-state interactions (FSI) in the large phase space probed in neutrino experiments poses a great challenge. In neutrino experiments, which operate under semi-inclusive conditions, cascade models are commonly used for this task, while under exclusive conditions FSI can be treated with relativistic optical potentials (ROP). We formulate conditions under which the ROP approach and cascade model can be directly compared. We feed the NEUT cascade with events from a relativistic distorted-wave impulse approximation calculation that uses the real part of an optical potential. Cuts on the missing energy of the resulting events are applied to define a set of events that can be directly compared to RDWIA calculations with the full optical potential. The NEUT cascade and ROP agree for proton kinetic energies $T_p > 150$ MeV for carbon, oxygen and calcium nuclei when a realistic nuclear density is used to introduce events in the cascade. For $T_p < 100$ MeV the ROP and NEUT cross sections differ in shape and differences in magnitude are larger than 50 %. Single transverse variables allow to distinguish different approaches to FSI, but due to a large non-QE contribution the comparison to T2K data does not give an unambiguous view of FSI. We discuss electron scattering and argue that with a cut in missing energy FSI can be studied with minimal confounding factors in e.g. $e4\nu$. The agreement of the ROP and NEUT for T2K conditions lends confidence to these models as a tool in oscillation analyses for sufficiently large nucleon kinetic energies. These results urge for caution when a cascade model is applied for small nucleon energies. The assessment of model assumptions relevant to this region are strongly encouraged. This paper provides novel constraints on cascade models from proton-nucleus scattering that can be easily applied to other neutrino event generators.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The Event Horizon Telescope Image of the Quasar NRAO 530

We report on the observations of the quasar NRAO 530 with the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) on 2017 April 5–7, when NRAO 530 was used as a calibrator for the EHT observations of Sagittarius A*. At z = 0.902, this is the most distant object imaged by the EHT so far. We reconstruct the first images of the source at 230 GHz, at an unprecedented angular resolution of ~20 μas, both in total intensity and in linear polarization (LP). We do not detect source variability, allowing us to represent the whole data set with static images. The images reveal a bright feature located on the southern end of the jet, which we associate with the core. The feature is linearly polarized, with a fractional polarization of ~5%–8%, and it has a substructure consisting of two components. Their observed brightness temperature suggests that the energy density of the jet is dominated by the magnetic field. The jet extends over 60 μas along a position angle ~ –28°. It includes two features with orthogonal directions of polarization (electric vector position angle), parallel and perpendicular to the jet axis, consistent with a helical structure of the magnetic field in the jet. The outermost feature has a particularly high degree of LP, suggestive of a nearly uniform magnetic field. Future EHT observations will probe the variability of the jet structure on microarcsecond scales, while simultaneous multiwavelength monitoring will provide insight into the high-energy emission origin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Radio Pulse Search and X-Ray Monitoring of SAX J1808.4−3658: What Causes Its Orbital Evolution?

The accreting millisecond X-ray pulsar SAX J1808.4−3658 shows a peculiar orbital evolution that proceeds at a very fast pace. It is important to identify the underlying mechanism responsible for this behavior because it can help to understand how this system evolves and which physical processes (such as mass loss or spin–orbit coupling) are occurring in the binary. It has also been suggested that, when in quiescence, SAX J1808.4−3658 turns on as a radio pulsar, a circumstance that might provide a link between accreting millisecond pulsars and black-widow (BW) radio pulsars. In this work, we report the results of a deep radio pulsation search at 2 GHz using the Green Bank Telescope in 2014 August and an X-ray study of the 2015 outburst with Chandra , Swift XRT, and INTEGRAL . In quiescence, we detect no radio pulsations and place the strongest limit to date on the pulsed radio flux density of any accreting millisecond pulsar. We also find that the orbit of SAX J1808.4−3658 continues evolving at a fast pace. We compare the orbital evolution of SAX J1808.4−3658 to that of several other accreting and nonaccreting binaries, including BWs, redbacks, cataclysmic variables, black holes, and neutron stars in low-mass X-ray binaries. We discuss two possible scenarios: either the neutron star has a large moment of inertia and is ablating the donor, generating mass loss with an efficiency of 40%, or the donor star has a strong magnetic field of at least 1 kG and is undergoing quasi-cyclic variations due to spin–orbit coupling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fuel cells for single-aisle regional aircraft: System configuration, performance and cost

A hydrogen fuel cell propelled electric aircraft can compete with incumbent turbofan technologies for single-aisle regional aircraft by coupling design of stack, air handling, thermal management, propulsion, and airframe to optimize performance. The stack operates at 95°C to facilitate heat rejection during take-off and below 75°C during cruise to extend lifetime and is oversized to satisfy power requirements at end of life. A multi-stage turbocompressor with a compression ratio >10 is selected to reach high stack power density at 11,300-m cruise altitude. The propulsion system is configured to accommodate air handling within the core duct, an inclined heat exchanger in the outer duct to limit the nacelle size, and variable area nozzles to independently control mass flows through the core and bypass ducts. The airframe is modified for maximum lift coefficient and longer balanced field length for dramatically reduced thrust during take-off, and the fuselage is stretched by 20% to store liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ). Modularization of power systems promotes safety in one engine inoperative scenarios and allows reaching specific power metrics for stack, balance-of-plant and fuel cell system (FCS), necessary for acceptable take-off weight. In conclusion, cost parity requires increase in FCS lifetime, LH 2 cost reduction, and improved FCS specific power.

Catalyst durability↗

A novel conditional formulation of the Vlasov–Ampère equations: a conservative, positivity, asymptotic and Gauss law preserving scheme

We propose a novel reformulation of the Vlasov–Ampère equations for plasmas that reveals discrete symmetries that enables simultaneous conservation of mass, momentum and energy; preservation of Gauss’s law; positivity of the distribution function; and consistency with quasi-neutral asymptotics. The approach employs variable and coordinate transformations to yield a coupled system comprising a modified Vlasov equation and associated moment–field equations. The modified Vlasov equation advances a conditional distribution function that excludes mass, momentum and energy densities, which are instead evolved through moment equations enforcing the relevant symmetries, conservation laws and involution constraints. This reformulation aligns naturally with a recent slow-manifold reduction technique, which separates fast electron time scales and simplifies the treatment of the quasi-neutral limit within the reduced moment–field subsystem. Using this framework, we develop a numerical method for the reduced 1D1V subsystem that, for the first time in the literature, satisfies all key physical constraints while maintaining a quasi-neutral asymptotic behaviour. The advantages of the method are demonstrated on canonical electrostatic test problems, including the multiscale ion acoustic shock wave.

1D1V↗

Quantification of spatial and seasonal trends in the atmosphere and construction of statistical models for infrasonic propagation

SUMMARY Infrasonic waves are influenced by variations in the density, pressure and temperature as well as the ambient winds. Modelling infrasonic propagation can be challenging due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere as well as the sparseness of measurements which result in variability and notable uncertainty. A framework is presented to quantify spatial and seasonal trends in atmospheric structure via analysis of the effective sound speed profile and identification of temporal trends in the middle atmospheric waveguide produced by the circumpolar vortex winds. Seasonal definitions identifying typical atmospheric structures during the summer, winter and spring/fall transition periods are identified using atmospheric data from 2010 through 2020. Seasonal trend analysis is conducted for a number of locations across the contiguous United States to quantify spatial variations in atmospheric structure that impact infrasonic propagation. For each season and location, empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reduce the historical archive of atmospheric data into a smaller representative set that can be analysed using numerical tools more efficiently. Infrasonic ray tracing and finite-frequency modal propagation analyses are applied to construct propagation path geometry and transmission loss statistics which are useful in localization and yield estimation for infrasonic sources, respectively. An example application is detailed in which transmission loss statistics are combined with an explosive source model and noise statistics to quantify the capability of a network to detect nearby sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Epitaxial InGaAs/InAlAs/AlAs Structures for Heterobarrier Varactors with Low Leakage Current

The quality of heteroboundaries and optimal conditions for epitaxial growth are critical parameters for obtaining low leakage currents of heterobarrier varactors in the InGaAs/InAlAs/AlAs material system. Grown by molecular-beam epitaxy, three-barrier heterobarrier varactor structures adjacent to InAlAs/AlAs/InAlAs barrier layers by additional mismatched InGaAs layers subjected to compressive stress show, under optimal epitaxy conditions, extremely low levels of leakage current density (not more than 0.06 A/cm{sup 2} at a voltage of 5 V and 85°C) with relatively thin AlAs inserts (with a thickness of 2 nm).

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Legacy Survey of Space and Time Data Preview 1: DiaObject searchable catalog

The Legacy Survey of Space and Time Data Preview 1 (DP1) is the first release of data from the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. It consists of raw and calibrated single-epoch images, co-adds, difference images, detection catalogs, and other derived data products. DP1 is based on 1792 science-grade optical/near-infrared exposures acquired over 48 distinct nights by the Rubin Commissioning Camera, LSSTComCam, on the Simonyi Survey Telescope at the Summit Facility on Cerro Pachón, Chile during the first on-sky commissioning campaign in late 2024. DP1 covers a total of approximately 15 sq. deg. over seven roughly equally-sized non-contiguous fields, each independently observed in six broad photometric bands, ugrizy, spanning a range of stellar densities and latitudes and overlapping with external reference datasets. This dataset is a subset of the full data release consisting of a searchable catalog named DiaObject. This catalog contains derived properties for transient and variable objects. This catalog contains 1,089,818 rows with 137 columns.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Variable magnetic field electron spectrometer to measure hot electrons in the range of 50–460 keV

Resonance absorption (RA) occurs when a p-polarized electromagnetic wave, obliquely incident on an inhomogeneous plasma, tunnels past its turning point and resonantly excites an electron plasma wave (EPW) at the critical density. This phenomenon is important, for instance, in the direct drive approach to inertial fusion energy and is a particular example of a wider phenomenon in plasma physics known as mode conversion, which is crucial for heating magnetic fusion devices, such as tokamaks, via RF heating. Direct measurement of these RA-generated EPW accelerated hot electrons, with energy in the range of a few tens to a few hundreds of keV, is a challenging task due to the relatively low deflecting magnetic fields needed. The solution described here is a magnetic electron spectrometer (MES) with a continually changing magnetic field, lower at the entrance of the MES and gradually increasing toward the end, that enables the measurement of a wide spectral range of electrons with energies between 50 and 460 keV. Electron spectra taken in a LaserNetUS RA experiment were acquired from plasmas generated by irradiating polymer targets with the combination of an ~300 ps pulse followed by a series of ten high intensity 50–200 fs duration laser pulses from the ALEPH laser at Colorado State University. In conclusion, the high intensity beam is designed as spike trains of uneven duration and delay pulses in order to modify the RA phenomenon.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

INTERSTELLAR SCINTILLATION AND THE RADIO COUNTERPART OF THE FAST RADIO BURST FRB 150418

Keane et al. have recently reported the discovery of a new fast radio burst (FRB), FRB 150418, with a promising radio counterpart at 5.5 and 7.5 GHz—a rapidly decaying source, falling from 200–300 μ Jy to 100 μ Jy on timescales of ∼6 days. This transient source may be associated with an elliptical galaxy at redshift z = 0.492, providing the first firm spectroscopic redshift for an FRB and the ability to estimate the density of baryons in the intergalactic medium via the combination of known redshift and radio dispersion of the FRB. An alternative explanation, first suggested by Williams and Berger, is that the identified counterpart may instead be a compact active galactic nucleus (AGN). The putative counterpart’s variation may then instead be extrinsic, caused by refractive scintillation in the ionized interstellar medium of the Milky Way, which would invalidate the association with FRB 150418. We examine this latter explanation in detail and show that the reported observations are consistent with scintillating radio emission from the core of a radio-loud AGN having a brightness temperature T {sub b} ≳ 10{sup 9} K. Using numerical simulations of the expected scattering for the line of sight to FRB 150418, we provide example images and light curves of such an AGN at 5.5 and 7.5 GHz. These results can be compared with continued radio monitoring to conclusively determine the importance of scintillation for the observed radio variability, and they show that scintillation is a critical consideration for continued searches for FRB counterparts at radio wavelengths.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Divergences in hydraulic conductance and anatomical traits of stems and leaves in three temperate tree species coping with drought, N addition and their interactions

Drought and N addition have been shown to affect tree hydraulic traits, but few studies have been made on their interactions across species with different wood types or leaf forms. We examined the responses of hydraulic conductance and xylem anatomical traits of Quercus mongolica (ring-porous with simple-leaves), Fraxinus mandshurica (ring-porous with compound-leaves), and Tilia amurensis (diffuse-porous with simple-leaves) to drought, N addition and their interactions. Drought stress decreased current-year xylem-specific conductivity in stems (Ksx) and leaf hydraulic conductance (Kleaf), but N addition affected Ksx and Kleaf differently among species and watering regimes. These divergent effects were associated with different responses of anatomical traits and leaf forms. Higher mean vessel diameter in stems (Dstem) and lower vessel density in leaves (VDvein) were observed with N addition. The three-way interactive effects of drought, N addition and tree species were significant for most values of anatomical traits. These results were also reflected in large differences in vessel diameter and density among species with different wood types or leaf forms. The two-way interactive effects of drought and N addition were significant on Kleaf and predawn water potential (?pd), but not Ksx, indicating that leaves were more sensitive than stems to a combination of drought stress and N addition. Our results provide mechanistic insight into the variable responses of xylem water transport to the interactions of drought and N availability.

Hydraulic conductance, hydraulic architecture, N f↗

Radio counterparts of compact binary mergers detectable in gravitational waves: a simulation for an optimized survey

Mergers of binary neutron stars and black hole–neutron star binaries produce gravitational-wave (GW) emission and outflows with significant kinetic energies. These outflows result in radio emissions through synchrotron radiation. We explore the detectability of these synchrotron-generated radio signals by follow-up observations of GW merger events lacking a detection of electromagnetic counterparts in other wavelengths. We model radio light curves arising from (i) sub-relativistic merger ejecta and (ii) ultra-relativistic jets. The former produce radio remnants on timescales of a few years and the latter produce γ-ray bursts in the direction of the jet and orphan-radio afterglows extending over wider angles on timescales of weeks. Based on the derived light curves, we suggest an optimized survey at 1.4 GHz with five epochs separated by a logarithmic time interval. We estimate the detectability of the radio counterparts of simulated GW-merger events to be detected by advanced LIGO and Virgo by current and future radio facilities. The detectable distances for these GW merger events could be as high as 1 Gpc. Around 20%–60% of the long-lasting radio remnants will be detectable in the case of the moderate kinetic energy of 3⋅10{sup 50} erg and a circum-merger density of 0.1 cm{sup −3} or larger, while 5%–20% of the orphan-radio afterglows with kinetic energy of 10{sup 48} erg will be detectable. The detection likelihood increases if one focuses on the well-localizable GW events. We discuss the background noise due to radio fluxes of host galaxies and false positives arising from extragalactic radio transients and variable active galactic nuclei, and we show that the quiet radio transient sky is of great advantage when searching for the radio counterparts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗