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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2014

Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainty in Agricultural Impact Assessment

This chapter considers issues concerning uncertainty associated with modeling and its use within agricultural impact assessments. Information about uncertainty is important for those who develop assessment methods, since that information indicates the need for, and the possibility of, improvement of the methods and databases. Such information also allows one to compare alternative methods. Information about the sources of uncertainties is an aid in prioritizing further work on the impact assessment method. Uncertainty information is also necessary for those who apply assessment methods, e.g., for projecting climate change impacts on agricultural production and for stakeholders who want to use the results as part of a decision-making process (e.g., for adaptation planning). For them, uncertainty information indicates the degree of confidence they can place in the simulated results. Quantification of uncertainty also provides stakeholders with an important guideline for making decisions that are robust across the known uncertainties. Thus, uncertainty information is important for any decision based on impact assessment. Ultimately, we are interested in knowledge about uncertainty so that information can be used to achieve positive outcomes from agricultural modeling and impact assessment.

damage assessment↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Agricultural Model Performance to Different Climate Inputs: Supplemental Material

Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled and observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources reanalysis, reanalysis that is bias corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset and compared with observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by non-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. Some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear to be oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but under sensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves.

simulation↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Satellite Data-Driven, Client-Server Decision Support Application for Agricultural Water Resources Management

Water cycle extremes such as droughts and floods present a challenge for water managers and for policy makers responsible for the administration of water supplies in agricultural regions. In addition to the inherent uncertainties associated with forecasting extreme weather events, water planners need to anticipate water demands and water user behavior in a typical circumstances. This requires the use decision support systems capable of simulating agricultural water demand with the latest available data. Unfortunately, managers from local and regional agencies often use different datasets of variable quality, which complicates coordinated action. In previous work we have demonstrated novel methodologies to use satellite-based observational technologies, in conjunction with hydro-economic models and state of the art data assimilation methods, to enable robust regional assessment and prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and land allocation. These methods create an opportunity for new, cost-effective analysis tools to support policy and decision-making over large spatial extents. The methods can be driven with information from existing satellite-derived operational products, such as the Satellite Irrigation Management Support system (SIMS) operational over California, the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and using a modified light-use efficiency algorithm to retrieve crop yield from the synergistic use of MODIS and Landsat imagery. Here we present an integration of this modeling framework in a client-server architecture based on the Hydra platform. Assimilation and processing of resource intensive remote sensing data, as well as hydrologic and other ancillary information occur on the server side. This information is processed and summarized as attributes in water demand nodes that are part of a vector description of the water distribution network. With this architecture, our decision support system becomes a light weight 'app' that connects to the server to retrieve the latest information regarding water demands, land use, yields and hydrologic information required to run different management scenarios. Furthermore, this architecture ensures all agencies and teams involved in water management use the same, up-to-date information in their simulations.

Agricultural↗
NASA NTRS2017

Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management

Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

Climate extremes; Drought impacts; Agriculture; Se↗
NASA NTRS2017

Next Generation Agricultural System Models and Knowledge Products: Synthesis and Strategy

The purpose of this Special Issue of Agricultural Systems is to lay the foundation for the next generation of agricultural systems data, models and knowledge products. In the Introduction to this Special Issue, we described a vision for accelerating the rate of agricultural innovation and meeting the growing global need for food and fiber. In this concluding article of the NextGen Special Issue we synthesize insights and formulate a strategy to advance data, models, and knowledge products that are consistent with this vision. This strategy is designed to facilitate a transition from the current, primarily supply-driven approach toward a more demand-driven approach that would address key Use Cases where better data, models and knowledge products are seen by end-users as essential to meet their needs.

Next generation↗
NASA NTRS2015

Development of a Complete Landsat Evapotranspiration and Energy Balance Archive to Support Agricultural Consumptive Water Use Reporting and Prediction in the Central Valley, CA

Mapping evapotranspiration (ET) from agricultural areas in Californias Central Valley is critical for understanding historical consumptive use of surface and groundwater. In addition, long histories of ET maps provide valuable training information for predictive studies of surface and groundwater demands. During times of drought, groundwater is commonly pumped to supplement reduced surface water supplies in the Central Valley. Due to the lack of extensive groundwater pumping records, mapping consumptive use using satellite imagery is an efficient and robust way for estimating agricultural consumptive use and assessing drought impacts. To this end, we have developed and implemented an algorithm for automated calibration of the METRIC remotely sensed surface energy balance model on NASAs Earth Exchange (NEX) to estimate ET at the field scale. Using automated calibration techniques on the NEX has allowed for the creation of spatially explicit historical ET estimates for the Landsat archive dating from 1984 to the near present. Further, our use of spatial NLDAS and CIMIS weather data, and spatial soil water balance simulations within the NEX METRIC workflow, has helped overcome challenges of time integration between satellite image dates. This historical and near present time archive of agricultural water consumption for the Central Valley will be an extremely useful dataset for water use and drought impact reporting, and predictive analyses of groundwater demands.

valleys↗
NASA NTRS1970

Recent advances in radar applications to agriculture

A series of remote radar sensing studies are summarized. These efforts comprise geoscience interpretations of such complex phenomena as those manifested in agricultural patterns. Considered are basic remote sensing needs in agriculture and the design and implementation of radar keys in the active microwave region as well as fine resolution radar imagery techniques for agriculture determinations and soil mapping.

Morain, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Agricultural land use mapping

The author has identified the following significant results. Agricultural areas were selected or analysis in southeastern Pennsylvania, north central Montana, and southern Texas. These three sites represent a broad range of soils, soil parent materials, climate, modes of agricultural operation, crops, and field sizes. In each of these three sites, ERTS-1 digital data were processed to determine the feasibility of automatically mapping agricultural land use. In Pennsylvania, forest land, cultivated land, and water were separable within a 25,000 acre area. Four classes of water were also classified and identified, using ground truth. A less complex land use pattern was analyzed in Hill County, Montana. A land use map was prepared shown alternating patterns of summer fallow and stubble fields. The location of farmsteads could be inferred, along with that of a railroad line. A river and a creek flowing into the river were discernible. Six categories of water, related to sediment content and depth, were defined in the reservoir held by the Fresno dam. These classifications were completed on a 150 square mile area. Analysis of the data from Texas is in its formative stages. A test site has been selected and a brightness map has been produced.

Mcmurtry, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The utility of ERTS-1 data for applications in agriculture and forestry

A comprehensive study has been undertaken to determine the extent to which ERTS-1 data could be used to detect, identify (classify), locate and measure features of applications interest in the disciplines of Agriculture and Forestry. The study areas included: six counties in five states in which were located examples of the most important crops and practices of American agriculture; and a portion of the Sam Houston National Forest, a typical Gulf coastal plain pine forest. The investigation utilized conventional image interpretation and computer-aided (spectral pattern recognition) analysis using both image products and computer compatible tapes. The emphasis was generally upon the computer-aided techniques. It was concluded that ERTS-1 data can be used to detect, identify, locate and measure a wide array of features of interest in agriculture and forestry.

Erb, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The economic value of remote sensing of earth resources from space: An ERTS overview and the value of continuity of service. Volume 3: Intensive use of living resources: Agriculture. Part 1: Overview

Potential economic benefits obtainable from a state-of-the-art ERS system in the resource area of intensive use of living resources, agriculture, are studied. A spectrum of equal capability (cost saving), increased capability, and new capability benefits are quantified. These benefits are estimated via ECON developed models of the agricultural marketplace and include benefits of improved production and distribution of agricultural crops. It is shown that increased capability benefits and new capability benefits result from a reduction of losses due to disease and insect infestation given ERS's capability to distinguish crop vigor and from the improvement in world trade negotiations given ERS's worldwide surveying capability.

Kornhauser, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The ERTS-1 investigation (ER-600). Volume 1: ERTS-1 agricultural analysis

The Agriculture Analysis Team of the Johnson Space Center conducted a 1-year-long investigation of ERTS-1 multispectral data to evaluate how well features of agricultural importance could be detected, identified, and located; and their areal extent measured. Six study areas were selected in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Two basic analytical approaches were used to meet the objectives. The conventional image interpretation technique revealed that a particular color was an indication of the density of vegetative cover, not an indication of crop classification. Computer-aided techniques were used to classify crop types (i.e., small grains, truck farm crops, grasses, summer fallow) to accuracies as high as 95 percent on large (12 hectares or more) well-defined fields. A further breakdown into crop species (wheat, barley, soybeans, oats, corn) reduced the accuracy to 70 to 80 percent for single-date observations.

Erb, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Statistical separability of agricultural cover types in subsets of one to twelve spectral channels

The purpose of this study was to determine the statistical separability of multispectral measurements from agricultural cover types: corn, soybeans, green forage (hay and pasture) and forest, in one to twelve spectral channels. Multispectral scanner data in twelve spectral channels in the wavelength range 0.4 to 11.7 microns, acquired for three flightlines were analysed by applying automatic pattern recognition techniques. The same analysis was performed for the data acquired a month later over the same three flightlines to investigate the effect of time on statistical separability of agricultural cover types. In the subsets of one to six spectral channels, the combination of wavelength regions (where V, N, M and T denote the visible, near infrared, middle infrared and thermal infrared wavelength regions, respectively): V, V M, V N M, V N M T, V V N M T, V V N M M T, respectively, were found to be the best choices for getting good overall statistical separability of the agricultural cover types for the data acquired.

Kumar, R.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Agricultural applications of remote sensing: A true life adventure

A study of agricultural applications of remote sensing with a major US agricultural firm was undertaken in mid-1973. The study continued for eighteen months, and covered the areas of crop monitoring and management as well as large scale crop inventories. Pilot programs in the application of aircraft remote sensing and LANDSAT data were conducted. An operational aircraft survey program for ranch management has subsequently been implemented by the agricultural firm. LANDSAT data was successfully used to produce a ninety-seven percent accurate inventory of cotton over 4.8 million acres of California's San Joaquin Valley.

Schaller, E. S.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Benefits to world agriculture through remote sensing

Remote sensing of agricultural land permits crop classification and mensuration which can lead to improved forecasts of production. This technique is particularly important for nations which do not already have an accurate agricultural reporting system. Better forecasts have important economic effects. International grain traders can make better decisions about when to store, buy, and sell. Farmers can make better planting decisions by taking advantage of production estimates for areas out of phase with their own agricultural calendar. World economic benefits will accrue to both buyers and sellers because of increased food supply and price stabilization. This paper reviews the econometric models used to establish this scenario and estimates the dollar value of benefits for world wheat as 200 million dollars annually for the United States and 300 to 400 million dollars annually for the rest of the world.

Buffalano, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Agricultural aviation user requirement priorities

The results are given of a research project pertaining to the development of agricultural aviation user requirement priorities. The raw data utilized in the project was obtained from the National Agricultural Aviation Association. A specially configured poll, developed by the Actuarial Research Corporation was used to solicit responses from NAAA members and others. The primary product of the poll is the specification of seriousness as determined by the respondents for some selected agricultural aviation problem areas identified and defined during the course of an intensive analysis by the Actuarial Research Corporation.

Kaplan, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Sensor needs for agricultural applications

The peculiarities of agricultural remotely sensed data requirements evoke special sensor requirements. Vegetative species do not possess significantly different spectral signature at given phases of their development cycle. Hence, the key to their discriminability is the phasing of the phenologic cycle of the subject species. Significant improvements in classification can be obtained by consistently employing multi-temporal observations taken at specific times during the year. The present approach to agricultural data processing results in extracted data equal to approximately .05% of the acquired data. This paper discusses the derivation of agricultural peculiar requirements and the benefits to the end-to-end processing system by judicial utilization and placement of key editing functions such as sample segment extraction, cloudy image removal, sample registration and the elimination of redundant data.

Golden, H.↗