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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5

Evaluation of external tubular configurations for a high-temperature chloride molten salt solar receiver operating above 700°C

Next-generation concentrating solar power (CSP) tower technologies target operating temperatures exceeding 700°C to increase the thermal-to-electric conversion efficiency. Molten chloride salts are one possible alternative to current commercial molten nitrate salts to enable the higher operating temperature. This paper analyzes the predicted optical, thermal-fluids, and structural performance of traditional external tubular solar receiver configurations applied with a chloride salt heat transfer fluid (HTF) and inlet/outlet temperatures of 500°C/735°C, and considers sensitivity analysis and optimization relative to receiver sizing, tube sizing, number of panels, flow circuit configurations, and solar flux concentration under constraints on internal velocity, pressure drop, wall thickness, and required creep-fatigue lifetime. The high temperature conditions increase the significance of inelastic deformation mechanisms such as creep relative to that expected in commercial 565°C nitrate salt designs. High-temperature creep and creep-fatigue damage in the metal alloy tubes are the key factors that limit allowable solar flux concentration and achievable receiver thermal efficiency at the near-800°C wall temperature conditions. For a traditional external cylindrical receiver configuration, the design parameters and conditions capable of satisfying all constraints produced, at best, a design point receiver efficiency of 78.2%, or 80.5% when excluding receiver intercept efficiency. Variation in the optimal receiver performance relative to uncertainty in the binding maximum velocity, minimum wall thickness, and minimum lifetime constraints is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Designing stellarators using perpendicular permanent magnets

We have developed a fast method to design perpendicular permanent magnets for simplifying stellarator coils based on existing codes. Coil complexity is one of the main challenges for stellarators. To date, only electromagnetic coils have been used to generate 3D fields for stellarators. Permanent magnets provide an alternative way to produce the desired magnetic field for optimized stellarators. In this paper, we revisit the concept of representing surface current using magnetic dipoles and carry out numerical validations. A surface magnetization is proven to be equivalent to the surface current that can be linearly solved by existing coil design codes. An incremental multi-layer method has been developed to obtain a practical solution that is attainable with present permanent magnets. With this method, we can reproduce a half-Tesla NCSX configuration using specially designed neodymium magnets together with simple planar coils. It shows that stellarator coils could be substantially simplified by adopting permanent magnets.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Supporting ARPA-E Power Grid Optimization (Final Report)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Arizona State University (ASU), Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Texas A&M University (TAMU), The University of Texas at Austin (UT), and the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-M) supported the ARPA-E Grid Optimization (GO) Competition by providing a common problem formulation, data format, datasets, evaluation mechanism, scoring, rules, and results that resulted in the awarding of $\$9.24$ million dollars to teams from academia, industry, and national labs for solving three sets of increasingly difficult non-linear, security- constrained AC Optimal Powerflow (AC-OPF) optimization problems in order to increase the efficiency of the US Electric Grid. It is estimated that a 1% increase in efficiency can save $\$1$ billion. Current industry practices typically use a linear DC model (DC-OPF) in order solve the OPF problem within the time constraints of the operation schedule. The GO Competition challenges the best power engineers, mathematicians, and computer scientists to make possible operational decisions based on accurate physical models. To accomplish this, the GO Competition created a series of Challenges and funded teams to produce the best solver. Challenge 1 was to solve the security constrained Alternating Current Optimal Power Flow (ACOPF) problem. Challenge 2 extended that to by adding adjustable transformer tap ratios, phase shifting transformers, switchable shunts, price-responsive demand, ramp rate constrained generators and loads, and fast-start unit commitment (UC). Furthermore, Challenge 2 was a maximization problem while Challenge 1 was a minimization problem. While Challenge 3 was being developed, the entrants were invited to find better solutions to the Challenge 2 synthetic datasets with no restrictions on time, hardware, or algorithms. The Challenge 2 solutions turned out to be very good. Challenge 3 expanded the Challenge 2 problem further by using multiperiod dynamic markets, including advisory models for extreme weather events, day-ahead markets, and the real-time markets with an extended look-ahead. These problems included active bid-in demand and topology optimization. Together the Challenges used nearly 30 million CPU hours. Since each team was working on the same problem, using the same data, and running on the same hardware, fair comparisons could be drawn as to the best solver. The datasets were varied enough, however, that the best solver for one dataset was not necessarily the best at another, so cumulative scores were used. The process was managed by the PNNL maintained website https://GOCompetition.energy.gov, where Entrants could find information about the problem, the data, the rules, submit their solver for evaluation, and see the scores of all the competing teams on a Leaderboard. Interest was world-wide but only American teams were eligible for prizes. The Competition has produced 34 journal articles 115 papers and been cited over 500 times in the literature, including 12 dissertations (4 from foreign countries; Columbia (2), Germany, and Italy) and 3 from the DOE ExaScale project. Software developed by Pearl Street Technologies for Challenges 1 and 2 is now deployed by Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and Midcontinent Independent Service Operator (MISO). Other teams have received inquiries from venture capitalists. Google DeepMind has thanked the Competition for making the datasets developed for the Competition public. They are using it to train machine learning models. The larger datasets have billions of unknowns to be solved for, but only a small percent matter in the final solution. Knowing what unknowns are important can dramatically speedup the solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Tightest Mixed-Integer Programming Formulations for Quadratic SCUC Optimization

In this project, we developed new, tighter Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP) formulations for the combined Alternating Current (AC) Security-Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) and Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow (SCOPF). The work addresses a critical challenge in power system operations: efficiently determining which generation units to commit and how to optimally dispatch them while maintaining network reliability constraints for both normal and contingency scenarios. Our efforts: 1. Advance the Understanding of SCUC/SCOPF Modeling: By introducing tighter MIP formulations and leveraging cutting-edge optimization tools (Julia/JuMP, PowerModels.jl), this project has pushed forward the state of the art in efficient power systems scheduling. 2. Enhance Technical and Economic Feasibility: The methods developed provide more accurate and potentially faster solutions to large-scale, realistic scheduling and dispatch problems in electric power systems, which can translate into improved reliability and potentially lower costs for grid operations. 3. Benefit to the Public: Greater efficiency in power system operations leads to cost savings for utilities and end-users. Improved reliability and integration of advanced modeling approaches can facilitate the adoption of clean energy resources and better accommodate uncertainties in renewable generation. Because this technology could impact bulk power markets and reliability, these innovations have far-reaching public benefits in terms of cost savings, reliability, and sustainability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hypochlorite Redox Chemistry Enables High-Voltage and High-Power Saltwater Batteries

Saltwater batteries (SWBs) are promising alternatives to lithium-ion batteries for large-scale stationary energy storage. However, the performance of conventional oxygen redox-based saltwater battery systems is often constrained by sluggish oxygen evolution and reduction reactions (OER/ORR) at the cathode, leading to low voltage efficiency and limited power density. Here, OER and ORR are replaced by hypochlorite-based redox reactions through the introduction of sodium hypochlorite into saltwater. Operando pH and dissolved oxygen measurements confirm that OER and ORR are minimized and that hypochlorite redox reactions dominate the cathode behavior. Owing to the higher operating potential and faster reaction kinetics, the hypochlorite-redox-based SWBs delivers a higher discharge voltage of 3.3 V and reduced charge-discharge voltage polarization to 0.66 V. Further improvement is achieved by adjusting the saltwater pH to near-neutral conditions, increasing the discharge voltage to 3.5 V and more than doubling the peak power. The hypochlorite redox environment also exhibits chemical stability with key cell components, including the solid electrolyte and cathode current collectors. Operation of series-connected cells and cells employing hard carbon anodes demonstrates scalability and compatibility with alternative anode materials. These results provide a strong foundation for next-generation SWBs targeting large-scale stationary energy storage applications.

Go, Wooseok [ORNL]↗

Structure-Guided Engineering of a Scoulerine 9-O-Methyltransferase Enables the Biosynthesis of Tetrahydropalmatrubine and Tetrahydropalmatine in Yeast

Benzylisoquinoline alkaloids (BIAs) are an important class of plant natural products with diverse pharmacological properties. Microbial platforms can produce BIAs through heterologous biosynthesis more efficiently than native plant hosts and allow for the generation of currently inaccessible BIA biosynthetic intermediates and unnatural derivatives. However, much remains unknown regarding the structures, substrate scopes, and mechanisms of many of the enzymes involved in BIA biosynthesis, which hampers efforts toward engineering these enzymes to produce alternative products or act in non-native biosynthetic contexts. In this paper, we present multiple crystal structures of two scoulerine 9- O -methyltransferase (S9OMT) variants from Thalictrum flavum which catalyze an essential step in the biosynthesis of berberine. The crystal structures revealed the structural basis for substrate and cofactor recognition by Tf S9OMT and provide further insight into the structure and function of S9OMTs. A structural comparison of the Tf S9OMT and T. flavum norcoclaurine 6OMT ( Tf 6OMT) crystal structures identified important residues for enzyme regiospecificity, which were confirmed via mutagenesis and in vitro assays. Several Tf S9OMT mutants with expanded substrate scopes toward various 1-benzylisoquinoline substrates were generated. The rationally engineered Tf S9OMT mutants with altered regiospecificity were tested in a yeast-based scoulerine production platform and enabled de novo production of tetrahydropalmatrubine and tetrahydropalmatine.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A consistent, Bayesian, approach to the cross section probability distribution in the unresolved resonance region

The cross sections of neutron-induced reactions can be divided into three energy ranges: the resolved resonance region (RRR), the unresolved resonance region (URR), and the fast region. In general, the cross sections in the URR show significant fluctuations that cannot be predicted and cannot be experimentally resolved, thus, it is commonly assumed that the cross section at a specific energy is given by a probability distribution function (PDF) over a range of values that can span several orders of magnitude. The current methodology used to describe such behavior is to construct the PDF by stochastically generating resonance ladders and numerically measuring the PDF. The resonance ladders are sampled using known resonance statistical properties and average resonance widths and spacings extrapolated from the RRR. Although this is a standard and widely used technique, it is computationally very expensive, therefore, an alternative, analytical, approach would be preferable due to the considerable speed up of the computational time in real life applications. Moreover, the current methodology does not take into account existing experimental data, such for total and capture cross sections, that are available for many nuclei. Finally, this approach was developed to be used in reactor-scale applications and it is not suited for use in single-event applications. In this work we will rethink the entire approach to the PDF construction using a Bayesian mindset. This will allow us to provide a different definition of the PDF that allows a much faster calculation of the higher-temperature PDFs and a proper combination of theoretical and experimental PDFs following the probability theory. We will also show that our definition is well suited for single-event applications and we will make an explicit connection between our method and the standard approach. We do this by showing that the central limit theorem applies and our method leads to the same PDF obtained with the standard methodology, for a large number of events per history.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Development of a forced advection sampling technique (FAST) for quantification of methane emissions from orphaned wells

Abstract. Orphaned wells, meaning unplugged and non-producing wells lacking responsible owners, pose a significant and undersampled environmental challenge due to their vast number and unknown associated emissions. We propose, develop and test an alternative method for estimating emissions from orphaned wells using a forced advection sampling technique (FAST) that can overcome many of the limitations in current methods (cost, accuracy, safety). In contrast to existing ambient Gaussian plume methods, our approach uses a fan-generated flow to force advection between the emission source and a point methane (CH4) sensor. The fan flow field is characterized using a colocated sonic anemometer to measure the 3D wind profile generated by the fan. Using time-series measurements of CH4 concentration and wind, a simple estimate of the CH4 emission rate of the source can be inferred. The method was calibrated using outdoor controlled-release experiments and then tested on four orphaned wells in Lufkin, TX, and Osage County, OK. Our results suggest that the FAST method can provide a low-cost, portable, fast and safe alternative to existing methods with reasonable estimates of orphaned well emissions over a range of leak rates below 40 g h−1 and within certain geometric and atmospheric constraints.

Dubey, Mohit L↗

Resilient, Rural, and Revolutionary: Salisbury Square's Direct-Current Affordable Microgrid Community: Preprint

The technology to interconnect buildings with a dedicated direct-current (DC) power distribution network is in place today; what is missing is a turnkey approach to designing a DC microgrid - and the business models allowing such systems to be deployed, owned, and operated at scale. To close this gap, the Salisbury Square Development Team, comprising clean-energy experts, has engineered a resilient community DC microgrid for an affordable housing community in Randolph, Vermont. Ten single-family, occupant-owned residences and 12 multifamily rental units will share locally generated and stored solar energy via a DC power distribution bus capable of operating during extended grid outages. With a DC power distribution network in place, each home will be equipped with high-efficiency DC lighting and appliances, operating alongside alternating current (AC) appliances, even during an islanded mode of operation. To obtain a comprehensive understanding of what is possible and achievable, the Team collaborated with the local utility, regulatory agencies, a national laboratory, energy-as-service providers, and vendors. The collaborators evaluated microgrid typologies, business models, and energy modeling, and analyzed electrification and resilience. Further, the Team applied the URBANoptTM (Urban Renewable Building and Neighborhood optimization, NREL 2022) software development kit (SDK) to Salisbury Square's single-family and multifamily buildings to validate workflows and identify needs for advanced capability. This paper addresses the barriers to entry, scalability, and impact on residents and system ownership. It also examines the analysis that informed the design and engineering of the DC microgrid and the opportunities to streamline the process.

DER↗

A Reinforcement Learning Approach to Parameter Selection for Distributed Optimal Power Flow

With the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources, distributed optimization algorithms have attracted significant attention for power systems applications due to their potential for superior scalability, privacy, and robustness to a single point-of-failure. The Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) is a popular distributed optimization algorithm; however, its convergence performance is highly dependent on the selection of penalty parameters, which are usually chosen heuristically. In this work, we use reinforcement learning (RL) to develop an adaptive penalty parameter selection policy for alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) problem solved via ADMM with the goal of minimizing the number of iterations until convergence. We train our RL policy using deep Q-learning and show that this policy can result in significantly accelerated convergence (up to a 59% reduction in the number of iterations compared to existing, curvatureinformed penalty parameter selection methods). Furthermore, we show that our RL policy demonstrates promise for generalizability, performing well under unseen loading schemes as well as under unseen losses of lines and generators (up to a 50% reduction in iterations). This work thus provides a proof-of-concept for using RL for parameter selection in ADMM for power systems applications.

alternating current optimal power flow↗

Ultra-low radioactivity Kapton and copper-Kapton laminates

Polyimide-based materials, like Kapton, are widely used in flexible cables and circuitry due to their unique electrical and mechanical characteristics. This study is aimed at investigating the radiopurity of Kapton for use in ultralow background, rare-event physics applications by measuring the 238U, 232Th, and natK levels using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Commercial-off-the-shelf Kapton varieties, mea- sured at approximately 950 and 120 pg/g 238U and 232Th (1.2×104 and 490 µBq/kg), respectively, can be a significant background source for many current and next-generation ultralow background detectors. This study has found that the dominant contamination is due to the use of dicalcium phosphate (DCP), a nonessential slip additive added during manufacturing. Alternative Kapton materials were obtained that did not contain DCP and were determined to be significantly more radiopure than the commercially- available options with 12 and 19 pg/g 238U and 232Th (150 and 77 µBq/kg), respectively. The lowest radioactivity version produced (Kapton ELJ, which contains an adhesive) was found to contain single digit pg/g levels of 238U and 232Th, two-to-three orders of magnitude cleaner than commercial-off-the- shelf options. Moreover, copper-clad polyimide laminates employing Kapton ELJ as the insulator were obtained and measured and showed to be very radiopure at 8.6 and 22 pg/g 238U and 232Th (110 and 89 µBq/kg), respectively.

Arnquist, Isaac J.↗

HYSPLIT/MACCS Atmospheric Dispersion Model Technical Documentation and Benchmark Analysis

The nuclear accident consequence analysis code MACCS has traditionally modeled dispersion during downwind transport using a Gaussian plume segment model. MACCS is designed to estimate consequence measures such as air concentrations and ground depositions, radiological doses, and health and economic impacts on a statistical basis over the course of a year to produce annualaveraged output measures. The objective of this work is to supplement the Gaussian atmospheric transport and diffusion (ATD) model currently in MACCS with a new option using the HYSPLIT model. HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling has been implemented, with HYSPLIT as an alternative ATD option. The subsequent calculations in MACCS use the HYSPLIT-generated air concentration, and ground deposition values to calculate the same range of output quantities (dose, health effects, risks, etc.) that can be generated when using the MACCS Gaussian ATD model. Based on the results from the verification test cases, the implementation of the HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling is confirmed. This report contains technical details of the HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling and presents a benchmark analysis using the HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling system. The benchmark analysis, which involves running specific scenarios and sensitivity studies designed to examine how the results generated by the traditional MACCS Gaussian plume segment model compare to the new, higher fidelity HYSPLIT/MACCS modeling option, demonstrates the modeling results that can be obtained by using this new option. The comparisons provided herein can also help decision-makers evaluate the potential benefit of using results based on higher fidelity modeling with the additional computational burden needed to perform the calculations. Three sensitivity studies to investigate the potential impact of alternative modeling options, regarding 1) input meteorological data set, 2) method to estimate stability class, and 3) plume dispersion model for larger distances, on consequence results were also performed. The results of these analyses are provided and discussed in this report.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Exploring the Use of Flexible Circuit Boards to the Increase Power Density of a Rotary Triboelectric Nanogenerator

EExpansion on previous triboelectric nanogenerator (TENG) research that investigated a freestanding rotary TENG. The previous prototype used a single printed circuit board (PCB) stator with exposed copper electrodes and an arcylic rotor with vinyl-cut fluorinated ethylene propylene (FEP) wedges. The second generation prototype again used a PCB stator but used a flexible PCB rotor consisting of alternating polyamide and copper wedges. This prototype was assembled in a stacked configuration, with the intent of increasing current output. Results indicated that the internal resistance of the prototype was decreased, allowing for higher current output. However, degradation of the power output was observed, which led to decay testing of the prototypes. To overcome charge decay, a self-exciting design is suggested as further work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Deciphering the Evolution of Current Distribution in Hybrid Silver Vanadium Oxide / Carbon Monofluoride Cathodes within Lithium Primary Batteries

For batteries to function effectively all active material must be accessible requiring both electron and ion transport to each particle. A common approach to generating the needed conductive network is the addition of carbon to create a composite electrode. An alternative approach is the electrochemically induced formation of conductive reaction products where the electrochemically generated materials are in intimate contact with the active material contributing to effective connection of each active particle. Furthermore, this study probes silver vanadium oxide (Ag 2 V 4 O 11 , SVO), carbon monofluoride (CF x ), and hybrid SVO/CF x electrodes in lithium batteries. Ex situ XRD identifies Ag 0 as a reduction product from SVO and LiF from CF x that can be followed as a function of depth-of-discharge (DOD). Spatially-resolved operando energy dispersive x-ray diffraction reveals that the presence of SVO alleviates reaction heterogeneity in the electrodes which are electron transfer limited in the absence of sufficient Ag 0 . Synchrotron X-ray tomography on discharged cathodes reveals the distribution of silver particles where the particles are more closely spaced near the current collector indicating multiple nucleation sites for their formation. Finally, operando isothermal microcalorimetry is used to determine the heat dissipation of the parent and hybrid battery types. Using material enthalpy potentials, we determine the current distribution between the two active materials for the discharging hybrid cathode adding further insight to the diffraction analysis. Taken together, these results provide a comprehensive understanding of hybrid SVO/CF x cathodes and give guidance on optimal compositions that balance power and energy density considerations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Next-generation anodes for high-energy and low-cost sodium-ion batteries

Sodium-ion batteries (NIBs) are increasingly becoming commercially viable alternatives to lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), driven by sodium’s lower cost and greater resource availability. However, current NIB technology still falls short of established LIB systems, such as those based on LiFePO 4 , in both cost efficiency and energy density. Although since the early 2020s, industrial advances have raised NIB energy densities to around 175 Wh kg −1 , performance remains limited by the relatively low specific capacity (typically 200–350 mAh g −1 ) and low tap density (0.3–1.0 g cm −3 ) of the prevailing hard carbon anodes. This Review analyses emerging anode materials that could unlock higher-energy and lower-cost NIBs, with a focus on high-capacity hard carbon and alloy-based systems. We discuss the latest progress, fundamental challenges and future directions in these anode materials across the key themes of electrode design, structure–property engineering and characterization. Here, by offering forward-looking insights into the rational design and optimization of anode materials, this Review aims to accelerate the research and development of commercially viable NIBs and support the broader advancement of energy storage technologies.

Batteries↗

Chapter 3 - Harvesting Thermal Energy with Ferroelectric Materials

Thermal energy is considered the ubiquitous form of energy as all other forms of energy ultimately degrade to thermal energy. Thermal to electrical energy conversion is currently an important method for electricity generation. The traditional power cycles, however, become technically and economically unviable when heat source temperature reduces below 100 °C. Thermal energy harvesting has been proposed as a viable alternative for low-grade thermal to electrical energy conversion. Thermal energy harvesting is a method of generating electricity using temperature-induced variations in material properties. It is particularly useful when the heat sources are available free-of-cost, either in the form of natural heat or waste heat. While there are several thermal energy harvesting techniques, pyroelectricity is the most promising as it can be used in situations where spatial thermal gradients are difficult to establish or the temperature of the heat source is changing. Despite the fact that the pyroelectric effect in ferroelectric materials has been known for past several decades, thermal energy harvesting using ferroelectric materials has not been much explored in the literature. In this chapter, we would explore various aspects of thermal energy harvesting using ferroelectric materials. We have first established the physics behind ferroelectricity, then provided a detailed description on ferroelectric thermal energy harvesting, discussed various ferroelectric thermodynamic cycles and devices proposed in the literature, and finally described various other emerging applications of ferroelectricity.

DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION,MATERIALS SCIENCE,OTHER I↗

Viability, behavior, and color expression in the offspring of matings between common wall lizard Podarcis muralis color morphs

Abstract Color polymorphisms are widely studied to identify the mechanisms responsible for the origin and maintenance of phenotypic variability in nature. Two of the mechanisms of balancing selection currently thought to explain the long-term persistence of polymorphisms are the evolution of alternative phenotypic optima through correlational selection on suites of traits including color and heterosis. Both of these mechanisms can generate differences in offspring viability and fitness arising from different morph combinations. Here, we examined the effect of parental morph combination on fertilization success, embryonic viability, newborn quality, antipredator, and foraging behavior, as well as inter-annual survival by conducting controlled matings in a polymorphic lacertid Podarcis muralis, where color morphs are frequently assumed to reflect alternative phenotypic optima (e.g., alternative reproductive strategies). Juveniles were kept in outdoor tubs for a year in order to study inter-annual growth, survival, and morph inheritance. In agreement with a previous genome-wide association analysis, morph frequencies in the year-old juveniles matched the frequencies expected if orange and yellow expressions depended on recessive homozygosity at 2 separate loci. Our findings also agree with previous literature reporting higher reproductive output of heavy females and the higher overall viability of heavy newborn lizards, but we found no evidence for the existence of alternative breeding investment strategies in female morphs, or morph-combination effects on offspring viability and behavior. We conclude that inter-morph breeding remains entirely viable and genetic incompatibilities are of little significance for the maintenance of discrete color morphs in P. muralis from the Pyrenees.

Abalos, Javier↗

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗