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At least 91 records · Page 5

Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions over Indo-Gangetic Basin

About 60% of world population reside in Asia, in term of which sheer population density presents a major environmental stress. Economic expansion in this region is, in fact, accompanied by increases in bio-fuel burning, industrial pollution, and land cover and land use changes. With a growth rate of approx. 8%/yr for Indian economy, more than 600 million people from Lahore, Pakistan to Calcutta, India over the Indo-Gangetic Basin have particularly witnessed increased frequencies of floods and droughts as well as a dramatic increase in atmospheric loading of aerosols (i.e., anthropogenic and natural aerosol) in recent decades. This regional change (e.g., aerosol, cloud, precipitation, etc.) will constitute a vital part of the global change in the 21st century. Better understanding of the impacts of aerosols in affecting monsoon climate and water cycles is crucial in providing the physical basis to improve monsoon climate prediction and for disaster mitigation. Based on climate model simulations, absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) play a critical role in affecting interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Indian monsoon. An initiative on the integrated (aerosols, clouds, and precipitation) measurements approach over the Indo-Gangetic Basin will be discussed. An array of ground-based (e.g., AERONET, MPLNET, SMART-COMMIT, etc.) and satellite (e.g., Terra, A-Train, etc.) sensors will be utilized to acquire aerosol characteristics, sources/sinks, and transport processes during the pre-monsoon (April-May, aerosol forcing) season, and to obtain cloud and precipitation properties during the monsoon (May-June, water cycle response) season. Close collaboration with other international programs, such as ABC, CLIVAR, GEWEX, and CEOP in the region is anticipated.

Tsay, S.-C.↗

Aerosol Complexity and Implications for Predictability and Short-Term Forecasting

There are clear NWP and climate impacts from including aerosol radiative and cloud interactions. Changes in dynamics and cloud fields affect aerosol lifecycle, plume height, long-range transport, overall forcing of the climate system, etc. Inclusion of aerosols in NWP systems has benefit to surface field biases (e.g., T2m, U10m). Including aerosol affects has impact on analysis increments and can have statistically significant impacts on, e.g., tropical cyclogenesis. Above points are made especially with respect to aerosol radiative interactions, but aerosol-cloud interaction is a bigger signal on the global system. Many of these impacts are realized even in models with relatively simple (bulk) aerosol schemes (approx.10 -20 tracers). Simple schemes though imply simple representation of aerosol absorption and importantly for aerosol-cloud interaction particle-size distribution. Even so, more complex schemes exhibit a lot of diversity between different models, with issues such as size selection both for emitted particles and for modes. Prospects for complex sectional schemes to tune modal (and even bulk) schemes toward better selection of size representation. I think this is a ripe topic for more research -Systematic documentation of benefits of no vs. climatological vs. interactive (direct and then direct+indirect) aerosols. Document aerosol impact on analysis increments, inclusion in NWP data assimilation operator -Further refinement of baseline assumptions in model design (e.g., absorption, particle size distribution). Did not get into model resolution and interplay of other physical processes with aerosols (e.g., moist physics, obviously important), chemistry

Predictability↗

Combined Observational and Modeling Efforts to Better Understand Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions Over Land: Preliminary Results from 7-SEAS/BASELInE 2013

This talk presents some of the detailed observations of low-level stratocumulus over northern Vietnam during 7-SEASBASELInE 2013 by SMARTLabs' ACHIEVE W-band cloud radar and other remote sensing instruments. These observations are the first of their kind for this region and will aid in ongoing studies of biomass-burning aerosol impacts on local and regional weather and climate. Preliminary results from simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) with recently implemented triple-moment bulk microphysics to examine the sensitivity of low-level stratocumulus over land to aerosols are also presented. Recommendations for future observational activities in the 7-SEAS northern region in collaboration with international partners will also be discussed.

satellite remote sensing↗

On the Effect of Dust Particles on Global Cloud Condensation Nuclei and Cloud Droplet Number

Aerosol-cloud interaction studies to date consider aerosol with a substantial fraction of soluble material as the sole source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Emerging evidence suggests that mineral dust can act as good CCN through water adsorption onto the surface of particles. This study provides a first assessment of the contribution of insoluble dust to global CCN and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Simulations are carried out with the NASA Global Modeling Initiative chemical transport model with an online aerosol simulation, considering emissions from fossil fuel, biomass burning, marine, and dust sources. CDNC is calculated online and explicitly considers the competition of soluble and insoluble CCN for water vapor. The predicted annual average contribution of insoluble mineral dust to CCN and CDNC in cloud-forming areas is up to 40 and 23.8%, respectively. Sensitivity tests suggest that uncertainties in dust size distribution and water adsorption parameters modulate the contribution of mineral dust to CDNC by 23 and 56%, respectively. Coating of dust by hygroscopic salts during the atmospheric aging causes a twofold enhancement of the dust contribution to CCN; the aged dust, however, can substantially deplete in-cloud supersaturation during the initial stages of cloud formation and can eventually reduce CDNC. Considering the hydrophilicity from adsorption and hygroscopicity from solute is required to comprehensively capture the dust-warm cloud interactions. The framework presented here addresses this need and can be easily integrated in atmospheric models.

Karydis, V. A.↗

3D Radiative Aspects of the Increased Aerosol Optical Depth Near Clouds

To characterize aerosol-cloud interactions it is important to correctly retrieve aerosol optical depth in the vicinity of clouds. It is well reported in the literature that aerosol optical depth increases with cloud cover. Part of the increase comes from real physics as humidification; another part, however, comes from 3D cloud effects in the remote sensing retrievals. In many cases it is hard to say whether the retrieved increased values of aerosol optical depth are remote sensing artifacts or real. In the presentation, we will discuss how the 3D cloud affects can be mitigated. We will demonstrate a simple model that can assess the enhanced illumination of cloud-free columns in the vicinity of clouds. This model is based on the assumption that the enhancement in the cloud-free column radiance comes from the enhanced Rayleigh scattering due to presence of surrounding clouds. A stochastic cloud model of broken cloudiness is used to simulate the upward flux.

Marshak, Alexander↗

The Impact of Sampling Strategy on the Cloud Droplet Number Concentration Estimated From Satellite Data

Cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) is of central importance to observation-based estimates of aerosol indirect effects, being used to quantify both the cloud sensitivity to aerosol and the base state of the cloud. However, the derivation of Nd from satellite data depends on a number of assumptions about the cloud and the accuracy of the retrievals of the cloud properties from which it is derived, making it prone to systematic biases. A number of sampling strategies have been proposed to address these biases by selecting the most accurate Nd retrievals in the satellite data. This work compares the impact of these strategies on the accuracy of the satellite retrieved Nd, using a selection of in situ measurements. In stratocumulus regions, the MODIS Nd retrieval is able to achieve a high precision (r2 of 0.5–0.8). This is lower in other cloud regimes but can be increased by appropriate sampling choices. Although the Nd sampling can have significant effects on the Nd climatology, it produces only a 20 % variation in the implied radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions, with the choice of aerosol proxy driving the overall uncertainty. The results are summarised into recommendations for using MODIS Nd products and appropriate sampling.

Edward Gryspeerdt↗

The Turning Point of the Aerosol Era

Over the CMIP6 historical period (1850–2014), aerosols provided the largest negative forcing compared to all other climate forcings via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds. Aerosols played an important role in counterbalancing warming by greenhouse gases (GHGs). Here we study aerosol forcing trends in the CMIP6 simulations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ocean-atmosphere ModelE version 2.1 (GISS-E2.1-G) using a fully coupled atmospheric composition configuration, including interactive gas-phase chemistry, and either an aerosol microphysical (MATRIX) or a mass-based aerosol (OMA) module. Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period are analyzed as well as four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) future scenarios for 2015–2100: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The main conclusion of this study is that aerosol forcing in the GISS model has reached its turning point, switching from globally increasing to a decreasing trend in the first decade of the 21st century. This result is robust, independent of which aerosol module or SSP scenario is used. Non-linear aerosol-cloud interactions dominate as a forcing agent over aerosol-radiation interactions. Aerosols' ability to counterbalance GHG forcing on the global scale is today at a level comparable to that at the beginning of the last century. In the 1980s, the decade of largest global aerosol loads, aerosols balanced up to 80% of GHG forcing. As a consequence, global warming of the last decades, which is primarily driven by greenhouse gases, has been augmented by the effect of decreasing aerosol cooling in our model. By the end of this century, following the SSP scenarios, aerosols will only counterbalance 0%–20% of GHG forcing, depending on model and on scenario.

Aerosol forcing↗

How We Can Constrain Aerosol Type Globally

In addition to aerosol number concentration, aerosol size and composition are essential attributes needed to adequately represent aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in models. As the nature of ACI varies enormously with environmental conditions, global-scale constraints on particle properties are indicated. And although advanced satellite remote-sensing instruments can provide categorical aerosol-type classification globally, detailed particle microphysical properties are unobtainable from space with currently available or planned technologies. For the foreseeable future, only in situ measurements can constrain particle properties at the level-of-detail required for ACI, as well as to reduce uncertainties in regional-to-global-scale direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF). The limitation of in situ measurements for this application is sampling. However, there is a simplifying factor: for a given aerosol source, in a given season, particle microphysical properties tend to be repeatable, even if the amount varies from day-to-day and year-to-year, because the physical nature of the particles is determined primarily by the regional environment. So, if the PDFs of particle properties from major aerosol sources can be adequately characterized, they can be used to add the missing microphysical detail the better sampled satellite aerosol-type maps. This calls for Systematic Aircraft Measurements to Characterize Aerosol Air Masses (SAM-CAAM). We are defining a relatively modest and readily deployable, operational aircraft payload capable of measuring key aerosol absorption, scattering, and chemical properties in situ, and a program for characterizing statistically these properties for the major aerosol air mass types, at a level-of-detail unobtainable from space. It is aimed at: (1) enhancing satellite aerosol-type retrieval products with better aerosol climatology assumptions, and (2) improving the translation between satellite-retrieved aerosol optical properties and species-specific aerosol mass and size that are tracked in aerosol transport and climate models used to assess aerosol forcing and its anthropogenic components. This presentation will summarize where we stand on the development of the SAM-CAAM concept.

DARF↗

Use of Machine Learning to Reduce Uncertainties in Particle Number Concentration and Aerosol Indirect Radiative Forcing Predicted by Climate Models

The radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols associated with aerosol–cloud interactions (RF(sub aci)) remains the largest source of uncertainty in climate prediction. The calculation of particle number concentration (PNC), one of the critical parameters affecting RF(sub aci), is generally simplified in climate models. Here we employ outputs from long-term (30-years) simulations of a global size-resolved (sectional) aerosol microphysics model and a machine-learning tool to develop a Random Forest Regression Model (RFRM) for PNC. We have implemented the PNC RFRM in GISS-ModelE2.1 with a mass-based One-Moment Aerosol module, which is one of CMIP6 models. Compared to the default setting, the GISS-ModelE2.1 simulation based on RFRM reduces the changes of cloud droplet number concentration associated with anthropogenic emissions, and decreases the RF(sub aci) from −1.46 W⋅m(exp −2) to −1.11 W⋅m(exp −2). This work highlights a promising approach based on machine learning to reduce uncertainties of climate models in predicting PNC and RF(sub aci) without compromising their computing efficiency.

Radiative forcing↗

Multistatic Aerosol Cloud Lidar in Space: A Theoretical Perspective

Accurate aerosol and cloud retrievals from space remain quite challenging and typically involve solving a severely ill-posed inverse scattering problem. In this Perspective, we formulate in general terms an aerosol and aerosol-cloud interaction space mission concept intended to provide detailed horizontal and vertical profiles of aerosol physical characteristics as well as identify mutually induced changes in the properties of aerosols and clouds. We argue that a natural and feasible way of addressing the ill-posedness of the inverse scattering problem while having an exquisite vertical-profiling capability is to fly a multistatic (including bistatic) lidar system. We analyze theoretically the capabilities of a formation-flying constellation of a primary satellite equipped with a conventional monostatic (backscattering) lidar and one or more additional platforms each hosting a receiver of the scattered laser light. If successfully implemented, this concept would combine the measurement capabilities of a passive multi-angle multi-spectral polarimeter with the vertical profiling capability of a lidar; address the ill-posedness of the inverse problem caused by the highly limited information content of monostatic lidar measurements; address the ill-posedness of the inverse problem caused by vertical integration and surface reflection in passive photopolarimetric measurements; relax polarization accuracy requirements; eliminate the need for exquisite radiative-transfer modeling of the atmosphere-surface system in data analyses; yield the day-and-night observation capability; provide direct characterization of ground-level aerosols as atmospheric pollutants; and yield direct measurements of polarized bidirectional surface reflectance. We demonstrate, in particular, that supplementing the conventional backscattering lidar with just one additional receiver flown in formation at a scattering angle close to 170deg can dramatically increase the information content of the measurements. Although the specific subject of this Perspective is the multistatic lidar concept, all our conclusions equally apply to a multistatic radar system intended to study from space the global distribution of cloud and precipitation characteristics.

aerosols↗

General Circulation Models Simulate Negative Liquid Water Path­–Droplet Number Correlations, but Anthropogenic Aerosols Still Increase Simulated Liquid Water Path

General circulation models' (GCMs) estimates of the liquid water path adjustment to anthropogenic aerosol emissions differ in sign from other lines of evidence. This reduces confidence in estimates of the effective radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci). The discrepancy is thought to stem in part from GCMs' inability to represent the turbulence–microphysics interactions in cloud-top entrainment, a mechanism that leads to a reduction in liquid water in response to an anthropogenic increase in aerosols. In the real atmosphere, enhanced cloud-top entrainment is thought to be the dominant adjustment mechanism for liquid water path, weakening the overall ERFaci. We show that the latest generation of GCMs includes models that produce a negative correlation between the present-day cloud droplet number and liquid water path, a key piece of observational evidence supporting liquid water path reduction by anthropogenic aerosols and one that earlier-generation GCMs could not reproduce. However, even in GCMs with this negative correlation, the increase in anthropogenic aerosols from preindustrial to present-day values still leads to an increase in the simulated liquid water path due to the parameterized precipitation suppression mechanism. This adds to the evidence that correlations in the present-day climate are not necessarily causal. We investigate sources of confounding to explain the noncausal correlation between liquid water path and droplet number. These results are a reminder that assessments of climate parameters based on multiple lines of evidence must carefully consider the complementary strengths of different lines when the lines disagree.

General circulation models↗

A Satellite-Based Estimate of Combustion Aerosol Cloud Microphysical Effects over the Arctic Ocean

Climate predictions for the rapidly changing Arctic are highly uncertain, largely due to a poor understanding of the processes driving cloud properties. In particular, cloud fraction (CF) and cloud phase (CP) have major impacts on energy budgets, but are poorly represented in most models, often because of uncertainties in aerosol–cloud interactions. Here, we use over 10 million satellite observations coupled with aerosol transport model simulations to quantify large scale microphysical effects of aerosols on CF and CP over the Arctic Ocean during polar night, when direct and semi-direct aerosol effects are minimal. Combustion aerosols over sea ice are associated with very large (~10W/sq.m) differences in longwave cloud radiative effects at the sea ice surface. However, co-varying meteorological changes on factors such as CF likely explain the majority of this signal. For example, combustion aerosols explain at most 40% of the CF differences between the full dataset and the clean-condition subset, compared to between 57% and 91% of the differences that can be predicted by co-varying meteorology. After normalizing for meteorological regime, aerosol microphysical effects have small but significant impacts on CF, CP, and precipitation frequency on an Arctic-wide scale. These effects indicate that dominant aerosol–cloud microphysical mechanisms are related to the relative fraction of liquid-containing clouds, with implications for a warming Arctic.

Zamora, Lauren M.↗

Remote Sensing of Clouds, Water Vapor, and Near-Surface Winds Under Various Aerosol Conditions During CAMP2Ex

The Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) field campaign took place from August – October 2019. CAMP2Ex science objectives include understanding aerosol-cloud interaction under various Meteorological conditions, and how these Meteorological phenomena affect aerosol distribution in the atmosphere. Numerous instruments were flown on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) P-3 aircraft during 19 CAMP2Ex science flights, including the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) the Airborne Third Generation Precipitation Radar (APR-3), and the High Spectral Resolution Lidar 2 (HSRL2). Geophysical retrieval equations for cloud liquid water, columnar water vapor, and near-surface wind speed using AMPR brightness temperatures have been derived and tested using CAMP2Ex data. Water vapor and wind speed retrievals have been validated using in situ observations, such as dropsondes and shipborne instruments. This presentation will demonstrate these AMPR-based retrievals during CAMP2Ex, including discussions of retrieval uncertainties. Specific CAMP2Ex flights will be presented in greater detail, including inferences of other Meteorological phenomena in clear air and around precipitating and non-precipitating clouds, such as background wind speeds and potential identification of gust fronts. These analyses will be supplemented with APR-3 reflectivity and Doppler velocity data to infer microphysical processes occurring within and around selected clouds of interest. In cases where multiple remote-sensing measurements were obtained for the same cloud, a time-evolution analysis of these features may be performed. Throughout these analyses, HSRL2 data will be used to quantify aerosol properties beneath the P-3, and variations in the AMPR/APR-3 observations with respect to various aerosol conditions will be discussed.

Corey Amiot↗