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Mass Gains of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Exceed Losses

During 2003 to 2008, the mass gain of the Antarctic ice sheet from snow accumulation exceeded the mass loss from ice discharge by 49 Gt/yr (2.5% of input), as derived from ICESat laser measurements of elevation change. The net gain (86 Gt/yr) over the West Antarctic (WA) and East Antarctic ice sheets (WA and EA) is essentially unchanged from revised results for 1992 to 2001 from ERS radar altimetry. Imbalances in individual drainage systems (DS) are large (-68% to +103% of input), as are temporal changes (-39% to +44%). The recent 90 Gt/yr loss from three DS (Pine Island, Thwaites-Smith, and Marie-Bryd Coast) of WA exceeds the earlier 61 Gt/yr loss, consistent with reports of accelerating ice flow and dynamic thinning. Similarly, the recent 24 Gt/yr loss from three DS in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is consistent with glacier accelerations following breakup of the Larsen B and other ice shelves. In contrast, net increases in the five other DS of WA and AP and three of the 16 DS in East Antarctica (EA) exceed the increased losses. Alternate interpretations of the mass changes driven by accumulation variations are given using results from atmospheric-model re-analysis and a parameterization based on 5% change in accumulation per degree of observed surface temperature change. A slow increase in snowfall with climate waRMing, consistent with model predictions, may be offsetting increased dynamic losses.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

Future Antarctic Bed Topography and Its Implications for Ice Sheet Dynamics

The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves.We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS.We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45mmyr−1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

ice dynamics↗

New Visualizations Highlight New Information on the Contrasting Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Trends Since the Late 1970s

Month-by-month ranking of 37 years (1979-2015) of satellite-derived sea-ice extents in the Arctic and Antarctic reveals interesting new details in the overall trends toward decreasing sea-ice coverage in the Arctic and increasing sea-ice coverage in the Antarctic. The Arctic decreases are so definitive that there has not been a monthly record high in Arctic sea-ice extents in any month since 1986, a time period during which there have been 75 monthly record lows. The Antarctic, with the opposite but weaker trend toward increased ice extents, experienced monthly record lows in 5 months of 1986, then 6 later monthly record lows scattered through the dataset, with the last two occurring in 2006, versus 45 record highs since 1986. However, in the last three years of the 1979-2015 dataset, the downward trends in Arctic sea-ice extents eased up, with no new record lows in any month of 2013 or 2014 and only one record low in 2015,while the upward trends in Antarctic ice extents notably strengthened, with new record high ice extents in 4 months (August-November) of 2013, in 6 months (April- September) of 2014, and in 3 months (January, April, and May) of 2015. Globally, there have been only 3 monthly record highs since 1986 (only one since 1988), whereas there have been 43 record lows, although the last record lows (in the 1979-2015 dataset) occurred in 2012.

Sea Ice↗

Retrieval of Snow Freeboard of Antarctic Sea Ice Using Waveform Fitting of CryoSat-2 Returns

In this paper we develop a CryoSat-2 algorithm to retrieve the surface elevation of the air–snow interface over Antarctic sea ice. This algorithm utilizes a two-layer physical model that accounts for scattering from a snow layer atop sea ice as well as scattering from below the snow surface. The model produces waveforms that are fit to CryoSat-2 level 1B data through a bounded trust region least-squares fitting process. These fit waveforms are then used to track the air–snow interface and retrieve the surface elevation at each point along the CryoSat-2 ground track, from which the snow freeboard is computed. To validate this algorithm, we compare retrieved surface elevation measurements and snow surface radar return power levels with those from Operation IceBridge, which flew along a contemporaneous CryoSat-2 orbit in October 2011 and November 2012. Average elevation differences (standard deviations) along the flight lines (IceBridge Airborne Topographic Mapper, ATM – CryoSat-2) are found to be 0.016 cm (29.24 cm) in 2011 and 2.58 cm (26.65 cm) in 2012. The spatial distribution of monthly average pan-Antarctic snow freeboard found using this method is similar to what was observed from NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), where the difference (standard deviation) between October 2011–2017 CryoSat-2 mean snow freeboard and spring 2003–2007 mean freeboard from ICESat is 1.92 cm (9.23 cm). While our results suggest that this physical model and waveform fitting method can be used to retrieve snow freeboard from CryoSat-2, allowing for the potential to join laser and radar altimetry data records in the Antarctic, larger (∼30 cm) regional differences from ICESat and along-track differences from ATM do exist, suggesting the need for future improvements to the method. Snow–ice interface elevation retrieval is also explored as a potential to obtain snow depth measurements. However, it is found that this retrieval method often tracks a strong scattering layer within the snow layer instead of the actual snow–ice interface, leading to an overestimation of ice freeboard and an underestimation of snow depth in much of the Southern Ocean but with promising results in areas such as the East Antarctic sector.

Fons, Steven W.↗

ISMIP6 Antarctica: A Multi-Model Ensemble of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution Over the 21st Century

Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between -7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica ass change varies between -6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Hélène Seroussi↗

Anomalous and Ungrouped Carbonaceous Chondrites in the US Antarctic Meteorite Collection and their Potential Relevance to Ryugu and Bennu

With two different carbonaceous asteroid sample return missions in full swing, attention has focused on what connections can be made between the asteroid samples and the wide range of carbonaceous chondrite meteorites in worldwide collections. The US Antarctic meteorite collection contains nearly 1000 carbonaceous chondrites of various types including many in well-established groups as well as ungrouped, unusual or anomalous groups [1]. Some of the latter have been included in, or are possibly related to, recently proposed new carbonaceous chondrite classifications – CA and CY chondrites [2,3]. In addition to these, there are numerous ungrouped samples that have properties intermediate between established groups (like CM and CO; [4]), distinct from any other groups [5], or have anomalous properties that might be attributable to parent body processes such as heating, fluid interaction, or impacts [6]. Some CM anomalous or ungrouped chondrites share spectral features with Ryugu, which has a small hydration peak arguably due to hydrated minerals left after either impact heating or shock in carbonaceous chondrites [7]. PCA 91008, PCA 02012, GRO 95566, and LEW 85311 are all CMs that have experienced heating or metamorphism that may be due to impacts, solar radiation, or radiogenic decay [6]. These samples all have low H contents, C/H (bulk), and low 17O [6,8] and may hold clues to understanding the mineralogy of Ryugu, or interpretations of its spectral properties. WIS 91600, on the other hand, appears to be related to several other highly altered CM [6], and shares properties with the newly proposed CY chondrites [6]. An understanding of this grouplet will also aid in the interpretation of Bennu samples which have strong hydration features. In addition, ungrouped carbonaceous chondrites may provide valuable insights into the aqueous alteration potentially recorded in Bennu and Ryugu samples; such as the relatively moderate aqueous alteration recognized and dated at 4-5 myr after CAIs in MAC 88107 (C2-ungrouped) by [9] to the extensive aqueous alteration apparent in MIL 090292 (C1-ungrouped) [10]. Finally, LON 94101/94102 is a brecciated CM chondrite with numerous lithologies. Its appearance is similar to some of the brecciated lithologies visible at the surface of Bennu and Ryugu [11]. Although CM chondrites with multiple lithologies are common (e.g., [12]), the lithologies are often difficult to resolve at the hand specimen scale and only after some detailed e-beam characterization are the subtle lithologic differences evident (e.g., [13]). LON 94102 contains visibly distinct clasts at the hand specimen scale, relatively rare for CM breccias. The largest CM chondrites by mass from the U.S. Antarctic meteorite collection may provide insights into the extent of brecciation and heterogeneity within more typical CM chondrite-like source asteroids. For example, recent curation CT scans [14] show possible clasts within in a subsplit of ALH 83100 (CM1/2) which is the largest CM chondrite or CM chondrite pairing group in the U.S. Antarctic collection with an original mass of 3.019 kg. Similar work on additional subsplits or meteorites may aid our understanding of heterogeneity within CM chondrites from Antarctica. Initial classification of CM chondrites in U.S. Antarctic meteorite collection includes preliminary pairing when petrographically similar CM chondrites that have been previously found in the same field area. The two largest CM chondrite preliminary pairing groups by mass are the ALH 83102 (CM2) pairing group with an original mass of 2.554 kg and the EET 96005 (CM2) pairing group with an original mass of 1.125 kg. However, preliminary pairing groups assigned at classification—intrinsically— do not include stones that are petrographically distinct. Rigorous pairing group studies of CM chondrites from specific field sites are needed to investigate if there is unrecognized heterogeneity in CM chondrites from Antarctica that may represent common asteroid impactors (pre-atmospheric entry asteroids/meteoroids). Detailed pairing studies have the potential to recognize initial stones with multiple lithologies and investigate if there are stones that only sample one of those respective lithologies in the collection. These groups of heated CMs, extensively hydrated CMs, intermediate between CM and CO chondrites, and brecciated samples are all potentially relevant to Bennu and Ryugu samples, where heating, hydration, and brecciation have all come into play. These bodies might also be comprised of material intermediate to CM and CO chondrites, or at least distinct from the well-established CC groups. These small and unusual groups of carbonaceous chondrites may help to unlock new information about early solar system processes and aid in the understanding of the evolution of these carbonaceous asteroids.

meteorites↗

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Properties and Processes

Although sea ice covers ~9% of the world’s oceans, its presence, and absence, vastly alter the energetic balance of Earth’s climate. Because of geographic differences, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice have different dominant properties and processes, which produce different responses to natural variability and anthropogenic change. In this Review, we survey changes in sea-ice properties and processes of the Arctic and Antarctic environments. In the Arctic, the melt season has lengthened by ~7.4 days decade −1 (1979-2024). There has been a corresponding decrease in winter sea-ice thickness (1.6 m mean total over 1980-2023), summer surface albedo (0.03 decade −1 over 1979-2020), and spring snow depth (2.5 cm decade −1 over 1954-2024). In comparison, corresponding changes in the Antarctic are small overall due to contrasting regional and temporal trends. From a dynamic perspective, sea-ice motion in both hemispheres has increased, with 0.63 cm s −1 decade −1 in the Arctic (1978-2024) and 0.69 cm s −1 decade −1 in the Antarctic (1982-2024), whereas trends in polynya occurrence differ by region. Future research should prioritize sea-ice observations that can inform how the climate system responds to natural variability and anthropogenic change, be standardized to increase uptake by the broader scientific community, and target process-oriented interactions to support model development.

Melinda A Webster↗

On the Settling Depth of Meltwater Escaping From Beneath Antarctic Ice Shelves

Antarctic glacial meltwater is thought to play an important role in determining large-scale Southern Ocean climate trends, yet recent modeling efforts have proceeded without a good understanding of how its vertical distribution in the water column is set. To rectify this, here we conduct new large-eddy simulations of the ascent of a buoyant meltwater plume after its escape from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf. We find that the meltwater’s settling depth is primarily a function of the buoyancy forcing per unit width of the source and the ambient stratification, consistent with the classical theory of turbulent buoyant plumes and in contrast to previous work that suggested an important role for centrifugal instability. Our results further highlight the significant role played by localized variability in stratification; this helps explain observed interannual variability in the vertical meltwater distribution near Pine Island Glacier. Because of the vast heterogeneity in mass loss rates and ambient conditions at different Antarctic ice shelves, a dynamic parameterization of meltwater settling depth may be crucial for accurately simulating high-latitude climate in a warming world; we discuss how this may be developed following this work, and where the remaining challenges lie.

Antarctic glacial meltwater↗

Sediment oxygen profiles in a super-oxygenated antarctic lake

Perennially ice-covered lakes are found in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of southern Victoria Land, Antarctica. In contrast to temperate lakes that have diurnal photic periods, antarctic (and arctic) lakes have a yearly photic period. An unusual feature of the antarctic lakes is the occurrence of O2 at supersaturated levels in certain portions of the water column. Here we report the first sediment O2 profiles obtained using a microelectrode from a perennially ice-covered antarctic lake. Sediment cores collected in January and October 1987 from Lake Hoare in Taylor Valley show oxygenation down to 15, and in some cases, 25 cm. The oxygenation of sediments several centimeters below the sediment-water interface is atypical for lake sediments and may be characteristic of perennially ice-covered lakes. There is a significant difference between the observed January and October sediment O2 profiles. Several explanations may account for the difference, including seasonality. A time-dependent model is presented which tests the feasibility of a seasonal cycle resulting from the long photoperiod and benthic primary production in sediments overlain by a highly oxygenated water column.

NASA Center ARC↗

Epstein-Barr virus reactivation associated with diminished cell-mediated immunity in antarctic expeditioners

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) reactivation and cell-mediated immune (CMI) responses were followed in 16 Antarctic expeditioners during winter-over isolation at 2 Australian National Antarctic Research Expedition stations. Delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) skin testing was used as an indicator of the CMI response, that was evaluated 2 times before winter isolation and 3 times during isolation. At all 5 evaluation times, 8 or more of the 16 subjects had a diminished CMI response. Diminished DTH was observed on every test occasion in 4/16 subjects; only 2/16 subjects exhibited normal DTH responses for all 5 tests. A polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was used to detect EBV DNA in saliva specimens collected before, during, and after the winter isolation. EBV DNA was present in 17% (111/642) of the saliva specimens; all 16 subjects shed EBV in their saliva on at least 1 occasion. The probability of EBV shedding increased (P = 0.013) from 6% before or after winter isolation to 13% during the winter period. EBV appeared in saliva during the winter isolation more frequently (P < 0.0005) when DTH response was diminished than when DTH was normal. The findings indicate that the psychosocial, physical, and other stresses associated with working and living in physical isolation during the Antarctic winter result in diminished CMI and an accompanying increased reactivation and shedding of latent viruses.

NASA Program Biomedical Research and Countermeasur↗

Antarctic isolation: immune and viral studies

Stressful environmental conditions are a major determinant of immune reactivity. This effect is pronounced in Australian National Antarctic Research Expedition populations exposed to prolonged periods of isolation in the Antarctic. Alterations of T cell function, including depression of cutaneous delayed-type hypersensitivity responses and a peak 48.9% reduction of T cell proliferation to the mitogen phytohaemagglutinin, were documented during a 9-month period of isolation. T cell dysfunction was mediated by changes within the peripheral blood mononuclear cell compartment, including a paradoxical atypical monocytosis associated with altered production of inflammatory cytokines. There was a striking reduction in the production by peripheral blood mononuclear cells of the predominant pro-inflammatory monokine TNF-alpha and changes were also detected in the production of IL-1, IL-2, IL-6, IL-1ra and IL-10. Prolonged Antarctic isolation is also associated with altered latent herpesvirus homeostasis, including increased herpesvirus shedding and expansion of the polyclonal latent Epstein-Barr virus-infected B cell population. These findings have important long-term health implications.

NASA Discipline Environmental Health↗

Glacial isostatic stress shadowing by the Antarctic ice sheet

Numerous examples of fault slip that offset late Quaternary glacial deposits and bedrock polish support the idea that the glacial loading cycle causes earthquakes in the upper crust. A semianalytical scheme is presented for quantifying glacial and postglacial lithospheric fault reactivation using contemporary rock fracture prediction methods. It extends previous studies by considering differential Mogi-von Mises stresses, in addition to those resulting from a Coulomb analysis. The approach utilizes gravitational viscoelastodynamic theory and explores the relationships between ice mass history and regional seismicity and faulting in a segment of East Antarctica containing the great Antarctic Plate (Balleny Island) earthquake of 25 March 1998 (Mw 8.1). Predictions of the failure stress fields within the seismogenic crust are generated for differing assumptions about background stress orientation, mantle viscosity, lithospheric thickness, and possible late Holocene deglaciation for the D91 Antarctic ice sheet history. Similar stress fracture fields are predicted by Mogi-von Mises and Coulomb theory, thus validating previous rebound Coulomb analysis. A thick lithosphere, of the order of 150-240 km, augments stress shadowing by a late melting (middle-late Holocene) coastal East Antarctic ice complex and could cause present-day earthquakes many hundreds of kilometers seaward of the former Last Glacial Maximum grounding line.

Coulomb stress↗

A Spurious Jump in the Satellite Record: Has Antarctic Sea Ice Expansion Been Overestimated?

Recent estimates indicate that the Antarctic sea ice cover is expanding at a statistically significant rate with a magnitude one-third as large as the rapid rate of sea ice retreat in the Arctic. However, during the mid-2000s, with several fewer years in the observational record, the trend in Antarctic sea ice extent was reported to be considerably smaller and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Here, we show that much of the increase in the reported trend occurred due to the previously undocumented effect of a change in the way the satellite sea ice observations are processed for the widely used Bootstrap algorithm data set, rather than a physical increase in the rate of ice advance. Specifically, we find that a change in the intercalibration across a 1991 sensor transition when the data set was reprocessed in 2007 caused a substantial change in the long-term trend. Although our analysis does not definitively identify whether this change introduced an error or removed one, the resulting difference in the trends suggests that a substantial error exists in either the current data set or the version that was used prior to the mid- 2000s, and numerous studies that have relied on these observations should be reexamined to determine the sensitivity of their results to this change in the data set. Furthermore, a number of recent studies have investigated physical mechanisms for the observed expansion of the Antarctic sea ice cover. The results of this analysis raise the possibility that much of this expansion may be a spurious artifact of an error in the processing of the satellite observations.

Cryosphere↗

Holocene Accumulation and Ice Flow near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Ice Core Site

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Core (WDC) provided a high-resolution climate record from near the Ross-Amundsen Divide in Central West Antarctica. In addition, radar-detected internal layers in the vicinity of the WDC site have been dated directly from the ice core to provide spatial variations in the age structure of the region. Using these two data sets together, we first infer a high-resolution Holocene accumulation-rate history from 9.2 thousand years of the ice-core timescale and then confirm that this climate history is consistent with internal layers upstream of the core site. Even though the WDC was drilled only 24 kilometers from the modern ice divide, advection of ice from upstream must be taken into account. We evaluate histories of accumulation rate by using a flowband model to generate internal layers that we compare to observed layers. Results show that the centennially averaged accumulation rate was over 20 percent lower than modern at 9.2 thousand years before present (B.P.), increased by 40 percent from 9.2 to 2.3 thousand years B.P., and decreased by at least 10 percent over the past 2 thousand years B.P. to the modern values; these Holocene accumulation-rate changes in Central West Antarctica are larger than changes inferred from East Antarctic ice-core records. Despite significant changes in accumulation rate, throughout the Holocene the regional accumulation pattern has likely remained similar to today, and the ice-divide position has likely remained on average within 5 kilometers of its modern position. Continent-scale ice-sheet models used for reconstructions of West Antarctic ice volume should incorporate this accumulation history.

ice↗

Antarctic Sea-Ice Freeboard and Estimated Thickness from NASA's ICESat and IceBridge Observations

ICESat completed 18 observational campaigns during its lifetime from 2003 to 2009. Data from all of the 18 campaign periods are used in this study. Most of the operational periods were between 34 and 38 days long. Because of laser failure and orbit transition from 8-day to 91-day orbit, there were four periods lasting 57, 16, 23, and 12 days. IceBridge data from 2009, 2010, and 2011 are used in this study. Since 2009, there are 19 Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) campaigns, and eight Land, Vegetation, and Ice Sensor (LVIS) campaigns over the Antarctic sea ice. Freeboard heights are derived from ICESat, ATM and LVIS elevation and waveform data. With nominal densities of snow, water, and sea ice, combined with snow depth data from AMSR-E/AMSR2 passive microwave observation over the southern ocean, sea-ice thickness is derived from the freeboard. Combined with AMSR-E/AMSR2 ice concentration, sea-ice area and volume are also calculated. During the 2003-2009 period, sea-ice freeboard and thickness distributions show clear seasonal variations that reflect the yearly cycle of the growth and decay of the Antarctic pack ice. We found no significant trend of thickness or area for the Antarctic sea ice during the ICESat period. IceBridge sea ice freeboard and thickness data from 2009 to 2011 over the Weddell Sea and Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas are compared with the ICESat results.

Antarctic↗

Decline in Antarctic Ozone Depletion and Lower Stratospheric Chlorine Determined From Aura Microwave Limb Sounder Observations

Attribution of Antarctic ozone recovery to the Montreal protocol requires evidence that (1)Antarctic chlorine levels are declining and (2) there is a reduction in ozone depletion in response to achlorine decline. We use Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of O3, HCl, and N2O to demonstratethat inorganic chlorine (Cly) from 2013 to 2016 was 223 ± 93 parts per trillion lower in the Antarctic lowerstratosphere than from 2004 to 2007 and that column ozone depletion declined in response. The mean Clydecline rate, ~0.8%/yr, agrees with the expected rate based on chlorofluorocarbon lifetimes. N2Omeasurements are crucial for identifying changes in stratospheric Cly loading independent of dynamicalvariability. From 2005 to 2016, the ozone depletion and Cly time series show matching periods of decline,stability, and increase. The observed sensitivity of O3 depletion to changing Cly agrees with the sensitivitysimulated by the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry transport model integrated

Ozone recovery↗

Increased Snowfall over the Antarctic Ice Sheet Mitigated Twentieth-Century Sea-Level Rise

Changes in accumulated snowfall over the Antarctic Ice Sheet have an immediate and time-delayed impact on global mean sea level. The immediate impact is due to the instantaneous change in freshwater storage over the ice sheet, whereas the time-delayed impact acts in opposition through enhanced ice dynamic flux into the ocean. Here, we reconstruct 200 years of Antarctic-wide snow accumulation by synthesizing a newly compiled database of ice core records using reanalysis derived spatial coherence patterns. The results reveal that increased snow accumulation mitigated twentieth-century sea-level rise by approximately 10 millimeters since 1901, with rates increasing from 1.1 mm per decade between 1901 and 2000 to 2.5 mm per decade after 1979. Reconstructed accumulation trends are highly variable in both sign and magnitude at the regional scale, and linked to the trend towards a positive Southern Annular Mode since 1957. Because the observed Southern Annular Mode trend is accompanied by a decrease in Antarctic Ice Sheet accumulation, changes in the strength and location of the circumpolar westerlies cannot explain the reconstructed increase, which may instead be related to stratospheric ozone depletion. However, our results indicate that a warming atmosphere cannot be excluded as a dominant force in the underlying increase.

Antarctic↗

Why Do Antarctic Ozone Recovery Trends Vary?

We use satellite ozone records and Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry transport model (CTM) simulations integrated with MERRA2 meteorology to identify a metric that accurately captures the trend in Antarctic ozone attributable to the decline in ozone depleting substances (ODSs). The GMI CTM Baseline simulation with realistically varying ODS levels closely matches observed interannual to decadal scale variations in Antarctic September ozone over the past 4 decades. The expected increase or recovery trend is obtained from the differences between the Baseline simulation and one with identical meteorology and fixed 1995 ODS levels. The differences show that vortex-averaged column O3 has the greatest sensitivity to ODS change from 1-20 Sep. The observed vortex-averaged column O3 during this period produces a trend consistent with the expected recovery attributable to ODS decline. Trends from dates after 20 Sep have smaller sensitivity to ODS decline and are more uncertain due to transport variability. Simulations show that the greatest decrease in O3 loss (i.e., recovery) occurs inside the vortex near the edge. The polar cap metrics have vortex size-dependent bias and do not consistently sample this region. Because the 60-90oS 220 DU O3 mass deficit (OMD) metric does not sample the edge region, its trend is lower than the expected trend; this is improved by area weighting. The 250 DU OMD metric samples more of the edge region, which increases its trend. Approximately 25% of the September Antarctic O3 increase is due to higher O3 levels in June prior to winter depletion.

Antarctic ozone↗