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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting

This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Early Holocene cold snaps and their expression in the moraine record of the eastern European Alps

Glaciers preserve climate variations in their geological and geomorphological records, which makes them prime candidates for climate reconstructions. Investigating the glacier–climate system over the past millennia is particularly relevant first because the amplitude and frequency of natural climate variability during the Holocene provides the climatic context against which modern, human-induced climate change must be assessed. Second, the transition from the last glacial to the current interglacial promises important insights into the climate system during warming, which is of particular interest with respect to ongoing climate change. Evidence of stable ice margin positions that record cooling during the past 12 kyr are preserved in two glaciated valleys of the Silvretta Massif in the eastern European Alps, the Jamtal (JAM) and the Laraintal (LAR). We mapped and dated moraines in these catchments including historical ridges using beryllium-10 surface exposure dating (10Be SED) techniques and correlate resulting moraine formation intervals with climate proxy records to evaluate the spatial and temporal scale of these cold phases. The new geochronologies indicate the formation of moraines during the early Holocene (EH), ca. 11.0 ± 0.7 ka (n = 19). Boulder ages along historical moraines (n = 6) suggest at least two glacier advances during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1250–1850 CE) around 1300 CE and in the second half of the 18th century. An earlier advance to the same position may have occurred around 500 CE. The Jamtal and Laraintal moraine chronologies provide evidence that millennial-scale EH warming was superimposed by centennial-scale cooling. The timing of EH moraine formation coincides with brief temperature drops identified in local and regional paleoproxy records, most prominently with the Preboreal Oscillation (PBO) and is consistent with moraine deposition in other catchments in the European Alps and in the Arctic region. This consistency points to cooling beyond the local scale and therefore a regional or even hemispheric climate driver. Freshwater input sourced from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), which changed circulation patterns in the North Atlantic, is a plausible explanation for EH cooling and moraine formation in the Nordic region and in Europe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2007

Abrupt Decline in the Arctic Winter Sea Ice Cover

Maximum ice extents in the Arctic in 2005 and 2006 have been observed to be significantly lower (by about 6%) than the average of those of previous years starting in 1979. Since the winter maxima had been relatively stable with the trend being only about -1.5% per decade (compared to about -10% per decade for the perennial ice area), this is a significant development since signals from greenhouse warming are expected to be most prominent in winter. Negative ice anomalies are shown to be dominant in 2005 and 2006 especially in the Arctic basin and correlated with winds and surface temperature anomalies during the same period. Progressively increasing winter temperatures in the central Arctic starting in 1997 is observed with significantly higher rates of increase in 2005 and 2006. The Atlantic Oscillation (AO) indices correlate weakly with the sea ice and surface temperature anomaly data but may explain the recent shift in the perennial ice cover towards the western region. Results suggest that the trend in winter ice is finally in the process of catching up with that of the summer ice cover.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Periodic variations in stratospheric meridional wind from 20 to 65 km - 80 N to 70 S

Long-term periodic features in the meridional wind between 20 and 65 km attitude are analyzed. No appreciable periodic waves are found in the tropics. The quasi-biennial oscillation, annual wave, and four-month wave have maximum amplitudes of about 10, 20, and 10 m/s respectively in the arctic near 45 km. The phase of the annual wave changes by nearly 180 deg in a narrow zone near 45 deg N. The semiannual wave has an amplitude of 10 m/s near 50 deg N above 50 km with equinoctial phase dates in the region of maximum amplitude. The location of this polar semiannual wave corresponds closely to that previously found in the zonal wind.

Nastrom, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Faster Tropical Upper Stratospheric Upwelling Drives Changes in Ozone Chemistry

Tropospheric trends in long-lived source gases N2O and the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) cause trends in O3 through changes in their reactive product gases. Transport affects the product gases because it controls the distribution of the long-lived source gases. We find that large changes in tropical upwelling 10-5 hPa since 2012 have strengthened the northern branch of the upper stratospheric (UpS) transport circulation, dramatically altering the abundances of N2O and its odd nitrogen product gases, NOx and HNO3. Increased upwelling is connected to stronger and more frequent Quasi-Biennial Oscillation easterly winds at 10 hPa and above. We use simulations with and without time varying MERRA2 meteorology to quantify the impact of dynamical changes on O3 loss via the NOx and ClOx cycles. We find that dynamical impacts on these cycles explain the mid-stratospheric tropical O3 increase and Arctic UpS O3 decrease since 2005.

Middle atmosphere chemistry and composition↗
NASA NTRS1994

Quasi-biennial oscillation in total ozone: Global behaviour derived from ground-based measurements

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in total ozone (TO) is studied on the basis of TO measurements at the world ground-ased ozone network during 1972-1988. The TO content is on the whole greater in the tropical belt and smaller in high latitudes during the westerly phase of the QBO of the equatorial stratospheric 50 mb wind than during the easterly phase in all seasons. The appropriate TO difference (westerly category minus easterly category) displays certain space structures changing during a year. There are regions with the peculiar annual evolution of this difference, particularly in the Arctic and Antarctic. Spectral analysis reveals bimodality of TO power spectra in the frequency range of QBO periods, with spectral maxima corresponding to 17-23 months and 28-35 months. The large period oscillations are predominant on the whole. The small period oscillations are likely the consequence of interaction between an annual cycle and QBO.

Gruzdev, Alexander N.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Periodic variations of total ozone and of its vertical distribution

The phase and amplitude of the annual, semiannual, and quasi-biennial oscillations to total ozone data for the Northern Hemisphere in the period 1957-1972 and for Northern Hemisphere ozonesonde data for variable periods from 1962-1974 have been plotted as functions of latitude, longitude, and altitude. The largest annual wave amplitude in total ozone occurs over eastern Siberia. In total ozone, the region of maximum quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) coincides with that of the annual wave. The major feature of the QBO in the vertical distribution is the maximum amplitude in the arctic just above the tropopause. As for the semiannual wave, the maximum in total ozone lies in the arctic, displaced slightly to the Siberian side. In the vertical, its maximum amplitude is near 18 km. The phase appears to progress poleward, with maxima at high latitudes occurring in March-April.

Wilcox, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Net Influence of an Internally Generated Guasi-biennial Oscillation on Modelled Stratospheric Climate and Chemistry

A Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model (GEOSCCM) simulation with strong tropical non-orographic gravity wave drag (GWD) is compared to an otherwise identical simulation with near-zero tropical non-orographic GWD. The GEOSCCM generates a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) zonal wind signal in response to a tropical peak in GWD that resembles the zonal and climatological mean precipitation field. The modelled QBO has a frequency and amplitude that closely resembles observations. As expected, the modelled QBO improves the simulation of tropical zonal winds and enhances tropical and subtropical stratospheric variability. Also, inclusion of the QBO slows the meridional overturning circulation, resulting in a generally older stratospheric mean age of air. Slowing of the overturning circulation, changes in stratospheric temperature and enhanced subtropical mixing all affect the annual mean distributions of ozone, methane and nitrous oxide. Furthermore, the modelled QBO enhances polar stratospheric variability in winter. Because tropical zonal winds are easterly in the simulation without a QBO, there is a relative increase in tropical zonal winds in the simulation with a QBO. Extratropical differences between the simulations with and without a QBO thus reflect the westerly shift in tropical zonal winds: a relative strengthening of the polar stratospheric jet, polar stratospheric cooling and a weak reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone.

stratosphere↗
DOE OSTI2021

Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic

Abstract The compound nature of large wildfires in combination with complex physical and biophysical processes affecting variations in hydroclimate and fuel conditions makes it difficult to directly connect wildfire changes over fire-prone regions like the western United States (U.S.) with anthropogenic climate change. Here we show that increasing large wildfires during autumn over the western U.S. are fueled by more fire-favorable weather associated with declines in Arctic sea ice during preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. Our analysis (based on observations, climate model sensitivity experiments, and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations) demonstrates and explains the Arctic-driven teleconnection through regional circulation changes with the poleward-shifted polar jet stream and enhanced fire-favorable surface weather conditions. The fire weather changes driven by declining Arctic sea ice during the past four decades are of similar magnitude to other leading modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that also influence fire weather in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Faster Tropical Upper Stratospheric Upwelling is Driving Changes in Ozone Chemistry

Trends in N2O and the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) cause trends in O3 through changes in their reactive product gases, NOx and ClOx, but transport plays an important role because it controls the distribution of the long‐lived source gases that produce ozone‐destroying radicals. In this study we show that increased tropical upwelling 10‐5 hPa from 2013‐2021 has changed upper stratospheric (UpS) composition and shifted the balance of O3 loss processes. We use N2O, HNO3, NOx, temperature and O3 data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the SCI‐Sat Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transport Spectrometer (ACE‐FTS) over a 16‐year period to show how changes in reactive nitrogen species affected gas phase ozone chemistry above 30 hPa between June 2013‐May 2021 compared to the previous 8 years, June 2005‐May 2013. We use 2 simulations of the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry transport model (CTM), with and without time varying MERRA2 meteorology, to understand how dynamical changes during this 16‐yr period affected O3 through changes in loss via the NOx and ClOx cycles. We also identify the role that the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical zonal winds plays in the UpS composition changes. We find large increases in tropical upwelling and poleward transport in the northern branch of the UpS transport circulation since 2013 that dramatically increased the abundance of the N2O and its odd nitrogen product gases, NOx and HNO3. O3 loss by NOx in the Arctic UpS increased due to dynamically driven composition change, explaining the observed weak O3 recovery in that region since 2005. The increased upwelling also drove decreases in tropical NOx, leading to increased tropical O3 from 12‐6 hPa.

middle atmosphere chemistry and composition↗
NASA NTRS1993

Diurnal tides in the Arctic Ocean

A 2D numerical model with a space grid of about 14 km is applied to calculate diurnal tidal constituents K(1) and O(1) in the Arctic Ocean. Calculated corange and cotidal charts show that along the continental slope, local regions of increased sea level amplitude, highly variable phase and enhanced currents occur. It is shown that in these local regions, shelf waves (topographic waves) of tidal origin are generated. In the Arctic Ocean and Northern Atlantic Ocean more than 30 regions of enhanced currents are identified. To prove the near-resonant interaction of the diurnal tides with the local bottom topography, the natural periods of oscillations for all regions have been calculated. The flux of energy averaged over the tidal period depicts the gyres of semitrapped energy, suggesting that the shelf waves are partially trapped over the irregularities of the bottom topography. It is shown that the occurrence of near-resonance phenomenon changes the energy flow in the tidal waves. First, the flux of energy from the astronomical sources is amplified in the shelf wave regions, and afterwards the tidal energy is strongly dissipated in the same regions.

Kowalik, Z.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modulation of North Atlantic Polar Low Activity and Associated Flow Patterns by Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Abstract Polar lows (PLs) are intense maritime mesoscale cyclones that can pose hazards to coastal communities and marine operation in the Arctic. This study examines the impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on PL activity in the subarctic North Atlantic. The 20 days following SSWs are characterized by tropospheric circulation anomalies resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. PL activity decreases significantly over the Labrador Sea, which can be attributed to the infrequent occurrence of low static stability and strong environmental baroclinicity, as well as reduced surface turbulent heat fluxes. These results suggest that a skillful prediction of SSWs can improve the extended-range forecast of PL activity over the Labrador Sea. For the Nordic seas, the results imply that the spatial structure of an SSW event is important for the PL modulation through different tropospheric circulation patterns. Situations with increased PL frequency in the Nordic seas are characterized by SSWs centered close to northern Greenland occurring over a smaller area, and a tropospheric response featuring enhanced cold-air outbreaks over the Norwegian Sea. Conversely, PL activity is suppressed over the Nordic seas when the SSW favors the formation of a tropospheric anticyclone above Greenland and Scandinavia. Significance Statement This study investigates the relationships between polar lows (PLs) and sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) over the subarctic North Atlantic. A better understanding of the effect of SSWs on PL development has the potential to improve extended-range forecasts of PLs. It is shown that SSWs are responsible for the significantly suppressed regional PL activity over the Labrador Sea, suggesting that SSWs can serve as a predictor for the extended-range forecast of PLs over this region. Following SSW events, the thermodynamic state of atmosphere becomes more stable over the Labrador Sea and hinders the convective development of PLs. For the northern Nordic seas, the impacts of SSWs on PL activity are sensitive to the spatial structure of stratospheric warming.

Chang, Chuan-Chieh↗
NASA NTRS2003

Role of the Polar Oceans in Global Climate

The project focused on ice-ocean model development and in particular on the assimilation of ice motion data and ice concentration data into both regional and global models. Many of the resulting publications below deal with improvements made in the physics treated by the model and the procedures for assimilating data. Several papers examine how the ability of the model to simulate the past behavior of the ice cover, especially to represent the ice thickness and ice deformation, is improved by data assimilation. A second aspect of the work involved interpretation of modeled behavior. Resulting papers treat the decline of arctic ice thickness over the last thirty years, and how that decline was caused by a slight warming of the near-surface atmosphere, and also how large variation in ice thickness are due to changes in wind patterns associated with a well- known oscillation of the atmospheric circulation. The research resulted in over 20 published papers on these topics.

Rothrock, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Simulations of Sea-Ice Dynamics Using the Material-Point Method

In recent years, the availability of large volumes of recorded ice motion derived from high-resolution SAR data has provided an amazingly detailed look at the deformation of the ice cover. The deformation is dominated by the appearance of linear kinematic features that have been associated with the presence of leads. These remarkable data put us in a position to begin detailed evaluation of current coupled mechanical and thermodynamic models of sea ice. This presentation will describe the material point method (MPM) for solving these model equations. MPM is a numerical method for continuum mechanics that combines the best aspects of Lagrangian and Eulerian discretizations. The material points provide a Lagrangian description of the ice that models convection naturally. Thus, properties such as ice thickness and compactness are computed in a Lagrangian frame and do not suffer from errors associated with Eulerian advection schemes, such as artificial diffusion, dispersion, or oscillations near discontinuities. This desirable property is illustrated by solving transport of ice in uniform, rotational and convergent velocity fields. Moreover, the ice geometry is represented by unconnected material points rather than a grid. This representation facilitates modeling the large deformations observed in the Arctic, as well as localized deformation along leads, and admits a sharp representation of the ice edge. MPM also easily allows the use of any ice constitutive model. The versatility of MPM is demonstrated by using two constitutive models for simulations of wind-driven ice. The first model is a standard viscous-plastic model with two thickness categories. The MPM solution to the viscous-plastic model agrees with previously published results using finite elements. The second model is a new elastic-decohesive model that explicitly represents leads. The model includes a mechanism to initiate leads, and to predict their orientation and width. The elastic-decohesion model can provide similar overall deformation as the viscous-plastic model; however, explicit regions of opening and shear are predicted. Furthermore, the efficiency of MPM with the elastic-decohesive model is competitive with the current best methods for sea ice dynamics. Simulations will also be presented for an area of the Beaufort Sea, where predictions can be validated against satellite observations of the Arctic.

Sulsky, D.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Arctic Ocean

The Arctic Ocean is the smallest of the Earth's four major oceans, covering 14x10(exp 6) sq km located entirely within the Arctic Circle (66 deg 33 min N). It is a major player in the climate of the north polar region and has a variable sea ice cover that tends to increase its sensitivity to climate change. Its temperature, salinity, and ice cover have all undergone changes in the past several decades, although it is uncertain whether these predominantly reflect long-term trends, oscillations within the system, or natural variability. Major changes include a warming and expansion of the Atlantic layer, at depths of 200-900 m, a warming of the upper ocean in the Beaufort Sea, a considerable thinning (perhaps as high as 40%) of the sea ice cover, a lesser and uneven retreat of the ice cover (averaging approximately 3% per decade), and a mixed pattern of salinity increases and decreases.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: Key Drivers and Climate Impacts (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this project was to investigate the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) using a hierarchical modeling framework to advance our process-level understanding on the respective roles of, and the feedback between, the key drivers of the AMV, in particular the ocean circulation associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and stochastic atmospheric forcing, primarily due to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The focus was primarily on the AMV due to natural variability, but the investigation will be extended to the possible modulation on the main characteristics of AMV under external climate forcing. Furthermore, we examined the impact of the AMV, with a special emphasis on the possible augmentation of predictability the AMV may bring to the regional weather and climate of North America, Western Europe, and the Arctic. Under this goal, we have published 15 peer-reviewed journal papers, and presented our results in more than 30 conferences over the project duration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Sea Ice and Ice Temperature Variability as Observed by Microwave and Infrared Satellite Data

Recent reports of a retreating and thinning sea ice cover in the Arctic have pointed to a strong suggestion of significant warming in the polar regions. It is especially important to understand what these reports mean in light of the observed global warning and because the polar regions are expected to be most sensitive to changes in climate. To gain insight into this phenomenon, co-registered ice concentrations and surface temperatures derived from two decades of satellite microwave and infrared data have been processed and analyzed. While observations from meteorological stations indicate consistent surface warming in both regions during the last fifty years, the last 20 years of the same data set show warming in the Arctic but a slight cooling in the Antarctic. These results are consistent with the retreat in the Arctic ice cover and the advance in the Antarctic ice cover as revealed by historical satellite passive microwave data. Surface temperatures derived from satellite infrared data are shown to be consistent within 3 K with surface temperature data from the limited number of stations. While not as accurate, the former provides spatially detailed changes over the twenty year period. In the Arctic, for example, much of the warming occurred in the Beaufort Sea and the North American region in 1998 while slight cooling actually happened in parts of the Laptev Sea and Northern Siberia during the same time period. Big warming anomalies are also observed during the last five years but a periodic cycle of about ten years is apparent suggesting a possible influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation. In the Antarctic, large interannual and seasonal changes are also observed in the circumpolar ice cover with regional changes showing good coherence with surface temperature anomalies. However, a mode 3 is observed to be more dominant than the mode 2 wave reported in the literature. Some of these spatial and temporal changes appear to be influenced by the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) and changes in coastal polynya activities.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗