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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2001

Sea Ice and Ice Temperature Variability as Observed by Microwave and Infrared Satellite Data

Recent reports of a retreating and thinning sea ice cover in the Arctic have pointed to a strong suggestion of significant warming in the polar regions. It is especially important to understand what these reports mean in light of the observed global warning and because the polar regions are expected to be most sensitive to changes in climate. To gain insight into this phenomenon, co-registered ice concentrations and surface temperatures derived from two decades of satellite microwave and infrared data have been processed and analyzed. While observations from meteorological stations indicate consistent surface warming in both regions during the last fifty years, the last 20 years of the same data set show warming in the Arctic but a slight cooling in the Antarctic. These results are consistent with the retreat in the Arctic ice cover and the advance in the Antarctic ice cover as revealed by historical satellite passive microwave data. Surface temperatures derived from satellite infrared data are shown to be consistent within 3 K with surface temperature data from the limited number of stations. While not as accurate, the former provides spatially detailed changes over the twenty year period. In the Arctic, for example, much of the warming occurred in the Beaufort Sea and the North American region in 1998 while slight cooling actually happened in parts of the Laptev Sea and Northern Siberia during the same time period. Big warming anomalies are also observed during the last five years but a periodic cycle of about ten years is apparent suggesting a possible influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation. In the Antarctic, large interannual and seasonal changes are also observed in the circumpolar ice cover with regional changes showing good coherence with surface temperature anomalies. However, a mode 3 is observed to be more dominant than the mode 2 wave reported in the literature. Some of these spatial and temporal changes appear to be influenced by the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) and changes in coastal polynya activities.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Stratospheric Age Spectra and Mean Ages From In Situ Observations of Carbon Dioxide

Tropospheric CO2 mixing ratios exhibit latitudinally varying seasonal and interannual oscillations superimposed on the long-term positive trend due to fossil fuel combustion. In situ observations of CO2 obtained from 1992-2000 using the NASA ER-2 aircraft and high-altitude balloons show that these time-varying signals propagate into the stratosphere, providing information about the transport history of sampled air. We have used these data to derive age spectra and mean ages that can be compared with results from models of the stratospheric circulation. Age spectra have been derived for altitudes below approximately 20 km for the tropics and for northern midlatitudes, where there is sufficient data and where the amplitudes of the seasonal and interannual oscillations are large enough to be detected. The midlatitude CO2 data are consistent with bimodal age spectra, which may result from a subtropical "barrier" to horizontal exchange. Seasonally resolved mean ages are available with nearly pole-to-pole coverage below 20 km and in the tropics and at middle and high northern latitudes up to the maximum altitude reached by the balloons (approximately 30 km). The oldest air sampled was in the Arctic polar vortex with a mean age of 6.5 +/- 0.5 years.

Andrews, Arlyn E.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Simulations of the Vertical Redistribution of HNO3 by NAT or NAD PSCs: The Sensitivity to the Number of Cloud Particles Formed and the Cloud Lifetime

Recent satellite and in situ measurements have indicated that limited denitrification can occur in the Arctic stratosphere. In situ measurements from the SOLVE campaign indicate polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) composed of small numbers (about 3 x 10^ -4 cm^-3) of 10-20 micron particles (probably NAT or NAD). These observations raise the issue of whether low number density NAT PSCs can substantially denitrify the air with reasonable cloud lifetimes. In this study, we use a one dimensional cloud model to investigate the verticle redistribution of HNO3 by NAT/NAD PSCs. The cloud formation is driven by a temperature oscillation which drops the temperature below the NAT/NAD formation threshold (about 195 K) for a few days. We assume that a small fraction of the available aerosols act as NAT nuclei when the saturation ratio of HNO3 over NAT(NAD) exceeds 10(l.5). The result is a cloud between about 16 and 20 km in the model, with NAT/NAD particle effective radii as large as about 10 microns (in agreement with the SOLVE data). We find that for typical cloud lifetimes of 2-3 days or less, the net depletion of HNO3 is no more than 1-2 ppbv, regardless of the NAT or NAD particle number density. Repeated passes of the air column through the cold pool build up the denitrification to 3-4 ppbv, and the cloud altitude steadily decreases due to the downward transport of nitric acid. Increasing the cloud lifetime results in considerably more effective denitrification, even with very low cloud particle number densities. As expected, the degree of denitrification by NAT clouds is much larger than that by NAD Clouds. Significant denitrification by NAD Clouds is only possible if the cloud lifetime is several days or more. The clouds also cause a local maximum HNO3 mixing ratio at cloud base where the cloud particles sublimate.

Jensen, Eric J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Variability and Anomalous Trends in the Global Sea Ice Cover

The advent of satellite data came fortuitously at a time when the global sea ice cover has been changing rapidly and new techniques are needed to accurately assess the true state and characteristics of the global sea ice cover. The extent of the sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere has been declining by about -4% per decade for the period 1979 to 2011 but for the period from 1996 to 2010, the rate of decline became even more negative at -8% per decade, indicating an acceleration in the decline. More intriguing is the drastically declining perennial sea ice area, which is the ice that survives the summer melt and observed to be retreating at the rate of -14% per decade during the 1979 to 2012 period. Although a slight recovery occurred in the last three years from an abrupt decline in 2007, the perennial ice extent was almost as low as in 2007 in 2011. The multiyear ice, which is the thick component of the perennial ice and regarded as the mainstay of the Arctic sea ice cover is declining at an even higher rate of -19% per decade. The more rapid decline of the extent of this thicker ice type means that the volume of the ice is also declining making the survival of the Arctic ice in summer highly questionable. The slight recovery in 2008, 2009 and 2010 for the perennial ice in summer was likely associated with an apparent cycle in the time series with a period of about 8 years. Results of analysis of concurrent MODIS and AMSR-E data in summer also provide some evidence of more extensive summer melt and meltponding in 2007 and 2011 than in other years. Meanwhile, the Antarctic sea ice cover, as observed by the same set of satellite data, is showing an unexpected and counter intuitive increase of about 1 % per decade over the same period. Although a strong decline in ice extent is apparent in the Bellingshausen/ Amundsen Seas region, such decline is more than compensated by increases in the extent of the sea ice cover in the Ross Sea region. The results of analysis of MODIS, AMSR-E and SSM/I data reveal that the sea ice production rate at the coastal polynyas along the Ross Ice Shelf has been increasing since 1992. This also means that the salinization rate and the formation of bottom water in the region are going up as well. Simulation studies indicate that the stronger production rate is likely associated with the ozone hole that has caused a deepening of the lows in the West Antarctic region and therefore stronger winds off the Ross Ice Shelf. Stronger winds causes larger coastal polynyas near the shelf and hence an enhanced ice production in the region during the autumn and winter period. Results of analysis of temperature data from MODIS and AMSR-E shows that the area and concentration of the sea ice cover are highly correlated with surface temperature for both the Arctic and Antarctic, especially in the seasonal regions where the correlation coefficients are about 0.9. Abnormally high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and surface ice temperatures (SITs) were also observed in 2007 and 2011when drastic reductions in the summer ice cover occurred, This phenomenon is consistent with the expected warming of the upper layer of the Arctic Ocean on account of ice-albedo feedback. Changes in atmospheric circulation are also expected to have a strong influence on the sea ice cover but the results of direct correlation analyses of the sea ice cover with the Northern and the Southern Annular Mode indices show relatively weak correlations, This might be due in part to the complexity of the dynamics of the system that can be further altered by some phenomena like the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and extra polar processes like the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (POD),

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Miniaturized Laser Heterodyne Radiometer for a Global Ground-Based Column Carbon Monitoring Network

We present progress in the development of a passive, miniaturized Laser Heterodyne Radiometer (mini-LHR) that will measure key greenhouse gases (C02, CH4, CO) in the atmospheric column as well as their respective altitude profiles, and O2 for a measure of atmospheric pressure. Laser heterodyne radiometry is a spectroscopic method that borrows from radio receiver technology. In this technique, a weak incoming signal containing information of interest is mixed with a stronger signal (local oscillator) at a nearby frequency. In this case, the weak signal is sunlight that has undergone absorption by a trace gas of interest and the local oscillator is a distributive feedback (DFB) laser that is tuned to a wavelength near the absorption feature of the trace gas. Mixing the sunlight with the laser light, in a fast photoreceiver, results in a beat signal in the RF. The amplitude of the beat signal tracks the concentration of the trace gas in the atmospheric column. The mini-LHR operates in tandem with AERONET, a global network of more than 450 aerosol sensing instruments. This partnership simplifies the instrument design and provides an established global network into which the mini-LHR can rapidly expand. This network offers coverage in key arctic regions (not covered by OCO-2) where accelerated warming due to the release of CO2 and CH4 from thawing tundra and permafrost is a concern as well as an uninterrupted data record that will both bridge gaps in data sets and offer validation for key flight missions such as OCO-2, OCO-3, and ASCENDS. Currently, the only ground global network that routinely measures multiple greenhouse gases in the atmospheric column is TCCON (Total Column Carbon Observing Network) with 18 operational sites worldwide and two in the US. Cost and size of TCCON installations will limit the potential for expansion, We offer a low-cost $30Klunit) solution to supplement these measurements with the added benefit of an established aerosol optical depth measurement. Aerosols induce a radiative effect that is an important modulator of regional carbon cycles. Changes in the diffuse radiative flux fraction (DRF) due to aerosol loading have the potential to alter the terrestrial carbon exchange.

Wilson, Emily L.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Turbulent Heat Flux, Downward Longwave Radiation, and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Wintertime Barents–Kara Sea Extreme Sea Ice Loss Events

We investigate wintertime extreme sea ice loss events on synoptic to subseasonal time scales over the Barents–Kara Sea, where the largest sea ice variability is located. Consistent with previous studies, extreme sea ice loss events are associated with moisture intrusions over the Barents–Kara Sea, which are driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition to the role of downward longwave radiation associated with moisture intrusions, which is emphasized by previous studies, our analysis shows that strong turbulent heat fluxes are associated with extreme sea ice melting events, with both turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes contributing, although turbulent sensible heat fluxes dominate. Our analysis also shows that these events are connected to tropical convective anomalies. A dipole pattern of convective anomalies with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and suppressed convection over the central to eastern Pacific is consistently detected about 6–10 days prior to extreme sea ice loss events. This pattern is associated with either the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) or El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composites show that extreme sea ice loss events are connected to tropical convection via Rossby wave propagation in the midlatitudes. However, tropical convective anomalies alone are not sufficient to trigger extreme sea ice loss events, suggesting that extratropical variability likely modulates the connection between tropical convection and extreme sea ice loss events.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS1986

Dynamics of the North Sea pole tide reconsidered

The anomalous tide in the North Sea, driven by the Chandler wobble, is here re-examined. A previously published solution in which these 'pole tide' observations were explained as a forced co-oscillation from the deep water tide is shown to be untenable, because it is very unlikely that the deep ocean tide is anything but equilibrium. Using the same physics as in the previous solution (viscous, linear, quasi-geostrophic dynamics), it is now suggested that the only plausible explanation is that there is a coincidental resonance between the long-wavelength branch topographic Rossby wave of the North Sea and the direct driving by the pole tide potential. This resonance is not a basin-resonance, but that of a free wave driven by a travelling forcing function. Simplified models reproduce the observations in qualitative fashion. If this explanation is the correct one, then the Arctic seas north of Asia and North America appear to be likely candidates as other regions where there may be a large pole tide response and, hence, a locus of wobble dissipation. Given the difficulties of observation, the long times required, and the general instability of the dissipation calculation with the simplified analytical model, probably a numerical model will be required for further progress.

Wunsch, Carl↗
NASA NTRS2024

Stratospheric Temperature and Ozone Impacts of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Water Vapor Injection

The January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano injected a large amount of water vapor into the mid-stratosphere. This study uses model simulations to investigate the resulting stratospheric impacts out to 2031. Maximum radiatively-driven model temperature changes occur in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) subtropics in April–May 2022, with warming of ∼1 K in the lower stratosphere and cooling of 3 K in the mid-stratosphere. The radiative cooling combined with adiabatic cooling driven by the quasi-biennial oscillation meridional circulation explains the near-record cold anomaly observed in the SH subtropical mid-stratosphere. Projected ozone responses maximize in 2023–2024 as the water vapor plume is transported globally throughout the stratosphere and mesosphere. The excess H2O increases the OH radical, causing a negative global ozone response (2%–10%) in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere due to increased odd hydrogen-ozone loss, and a small positive ozone response (0.5%–1%) in the mid-stratosphere due to interference of the NOx catalytic loss cycle by the additional OH. In the lower stratosphere, the excess H2O is projected to increase polar stratospheric clouds and springtime halogen-ozone loss, enhancing the Antarctic ozone hole by 25–30 DU in 2023. Arctic impact is small, with maximum additional ozone loss of 4–5 DU projected in spring 2024. These responses diminish after 2024 to be quite small by 2031, as the excess H2O is removed from the stratosphere with a 2.5-year e-folding time. Given the year-to-year variability of the stratosphere, the magnitudes of these ozone responses may be below the threshold of detectability in observations.

stratosphere↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Role of Atmospheric Teleconnections and Local Forcings in Predicting Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Loss

In recent decades, the Arctic climate has experienced substantial climactic change, including significant decreases in both sea ice extent and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance. These trends are overlain by substantial interannual variability in atmospheric circulation driven by large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that the removal of Arctic sea ice can alter local atmospheric circulation through increased air temperature, clouds, and water vapor, which may contribute to increased surface melting on the GrIS. Here, we seek to characterize how these processes are linked to Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass loss and constrain how the representation of these forcings can impact the prediction of meltwater runoff within the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) seasonal-to-subseasonal forecasting system (S2S v2.1). To do this, we use a combination of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis product, retrospective seasonal forecasts from the GEOS S2S v2.1, and independent GEOS simulations. Results from MERRA-2 reanalysis indicate that the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) results in warm surface air temperatures and reduced precipitation across Greenland, both of which act to enhance summer ice surface mass losses. When compared with MERRA-2, retrospective forecasts from the GEOS S2S v2.1 system effectively reproduce the pattern of summer GrIS surface mass loss and demonstrate reasonable skill in predicting the magnitude of meltwater runoff at leads of 1 to 3 months. However, during periods with a strong negative NAO, ice sheet surface mass balance is substantially underestimated. This pattern is also associated with an underprediction of the Greenland Blocking Index height and over prediction of sea ice extent, suggesting that both local and non-local forcings may play a role in the reduced prediction skill during these periods. Using both retrospective forecasts and independent simulations, we characterize the relative importance of local and non-local mechanisms in driving summer GrIS

Andrews, Lauren C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Influence of an Internally-Generated QBO on Modeled Stratospheric Dynamics and Ozone

A GEOS V2 CCM simulation with an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal is compared to an otherwise identical simulation without a QBO. In a present-day climate, inclusion of the modeled QBO makes a significant difference to stratospheric dynamics and ozone throughout the year. The QBO enhances variability in the tropics, as expected, but also in the polar stratosphere in some seasons. The modeled QBO also affects the mean stratospheric climate. Because tropical zonal winds in the baseline simulation are generally easterly, there is a relative increase in zonal wind magnitudes in tropical lower and middle stratosphere in the QBO simulation. Extra-tropical differences between the QBO and 'no QBO' simulations thus reflect a bias toward the westerly phase of the QBO: a relative strengthening and poleward shifting the polar stratospheric jets, and a reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Observation of melt onset on multiyear Arctic sea ice using the ERS 1 synthetic aperture radar

We present nearly coincident observations of backscattering from the Earth Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS) 1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and of near-surface temperature from six drifting buoys in the Beaufort Sea, showing that the onset of melting in snow on multiyear sea ice is clearly detectable in the SAR data. Melt onset is marked by a clean, steep decrease in the backscattering cross section of multiyear ice at 5.3 GHz and VV polarization. We investigate the scattering physics responsible for the signature change and find that the cross section decrease is due solely to the appearance of liquid water in the snow cover overlying the ice. A thin layer of moist snow is sufficient to cause the observed decrease. We present a prototype algorithm to estimate the date of melt onset using the ERS 1 SAR and apply the algorithm first to the SAR data for which we have corresponding buoy temperatures. The melt onset dates estimated by the SAR algorithm agree with those obtained independently from the temperature data to within 4 days or less, with the exception of one case in which temperatures oscillated about 0 C for several weeks. Lastly, we apply the algorithm to the entire ERS 1 SAR data record acquired by the Alaska SAR Facility for the Beaufort Sea north of 73 deg N during the spring of 1992, to produce a map of the dates of melt onset over an area roughly 1000 km on a side. The progression of melt onset is primarily poleward but shows a weak meridional dependence at latitudes of approximately 76 deg-77 deg N. Melting begins in the southern part of the study region on June 13 and by June 20 has progressed to the northermost part of the region.

Winebrenner, D. P.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Stratospheric Age Spectra and Mean Ages from In Situ Observations of Carbon Dioxide

In situ observations of CO2 obtained from 1992 through 2000 using the NASA ER-2 aircraft and high-altitude balloons show that seasonal and interannual variations in CO2 mixing ratios propagate from the troposphere into the lower stratosphere via the tropical tropopause, along with the long-term trend due to fossil fuel combustion. These signals spread laterally and vertically, providing detailed quantitative information about the transport history of sampled air. We have used these data to derive age spectra and mean ages that can be compared with results from models of the stratospheric circulation. For an air parcel at a point in the stratosphere, the age spectrum is defined as the probability distribution function for transit times from the tropical tropopause for each fluid element comprising the parcel. The mean age is the average transit time, corresponding to the first moment of the age spectrum. Age spectra have been derived for altitudes below approximately 20 km for the tropics and for northern midlatitudes where there is sufficient data and where the amplitudes of the seasonal and interannual oscillations in CO2 mixing ratios are large enough to be detected. Tropical age spectra are narrow, with seasonal variation indicating faster ascent during northern winter, consistent with a circulation driven by breaking of extratropical waves. The midlatitude CO2 data are consistent with bimodal age spectra, which could result from a subtropical "barrier" to horizontal exchange over a substantial altitude region. Seasonally resolved mean ages are available with nearly pole-to-pole coverage below 20 km and in the tropics and at middle and high northern latitudes up to the maximum altitude reached by the balloons (approximately 30 km). At ER-2 altitudes, steep meridional gradients in mean age are observed in the subtropics. Between 20 and 30 km, midlatitude air is approximately 2 years older than tropical air at the same altitude. The oldest air sampled was in the Arctic polar vortex with a mean age of .5 plus or minus 0.5 years. This value is much younger than mean ages inferred from simultaneous and previous observations of SF6 in the Arctic vortex, providing evidence for a mesospheric sink for SF6. The mean age in the midlatitude middle stratosphere (approximately 25-32 km) is nearly constant with respect to altitude at 5 plus or minus 0.5 years. Comparison with earlier balloon observations of CO2 dating back to the 1970s shows that the mean age of air in this region has been relatively invariant over the last 25 years.

Andrews, Arlyn E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Total ozone seasonal and interannual variations in the principal air masses of the Northern Hemisphere in 1975-1990

The diurnally mean total ozone X from the Northern Hemisphere ground based 90 stations for 1975-1990 are averaged over the Arctic (bar X (sub A)) Intermediate (bar X (sub I)) and Tropical (bar X (sub T)) air mass areas, divided by the jet stream axes on the isobaric surfaces 300 and 200 mb. The mean square variations of the so averaged X are considerably smaller than of the X, averaged over the corresponding zonal belts. This property allows one to improve considerably the statistical significance of X trends and changes over various time periods, taking into account the time correlation of data for adjacent time intervals. Bar X (sub A), bar X (sub I), and bar X (sub T) trends are estimated over the periods of solar activity rise and fall in its 21st and rise in its 22nd 11 year cycles and over the periods of west and east phases of the known over the periods of west and east phases of the known quasibiennial oscillation (QBO). Solar activity variations affect mostly bar X (sub T), bar X (sub I) trends in summer months, while QBO phases influence the X changes mostly during the cold half year. X are lower in the west QBO phase and their trend is negative during almost all periods considered. The anthropogenic effects on the X is also estimated.

Karol, Igor L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Global ozone observations from the UARS MLS: An overview of zonal-mean results

Global ozone observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) are presented, in both vertically resolved and column abundance formats. The authors review the zonal-mean ozone variations measured over the two and a half years since launch in September 1991. Well-known features such as the annual and semiannual variations are ubiquitous. In the equatorial regions, longer-term changes are believed to be related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), with a strong semiannual signal above 20 hPa. Ozone values near 50 hPa exhibit an equatorial low from October 1991 to June 1992, after which the low ozone pattern splits into two subtropical lows (possibly in connection with residual circulation changes tied to the QBO) and returns to an equatorial low in September 1993. The ozone hole development at high southern latitudes is apparent in MLS column data integrated down to 100 hPa, the MLS data reinforce current knowledge of this lower-stratospheric phenomenon by providing a height-dependent view of the variations. The region from 30 deg S to 30 deg N (an area equal to half the global area) shows very little change in the ozone column from year to year and within each year. The most striking ozone changes have occurred at northern midlatitudes, with the October 1992 to July 1993 column values significantly lower than during the prior year. The zonal-mean changes manifest themselves as a slower rate of increase during the 1992/93 winter, and there is some evidence for a lower fall minimum. A recovery occurs during late summer of 1993; early 1994 values are significantly larger than during the two previous winters. The timing and latitudinal extent of the northern midlatitude decreases appear to rule out observed ClO enhancements in the Arctic vortex, with related chemical processing and ozone dilution effects, as a unique cause. Local depletion from ClO-related chemical mechanisms alone is also not sufficient, based on MLS ClO data. The puzzling asymmetric nature of the changes probably requires a dynamical component as an explanation. A combination of effects (including chemical destruction via heterogeneous processes and QBO phasing) apparently needs to be invoked. This dataset will place constraints on future modeling studies, which are required to better understand the source of the observed changes.

Froidevaux, Lucien↗