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At least 91 records · Page 5

Perturbation analysis of queueing systems with a time-varying arrival rate

The authors consider an M/G/1 queuing with a time-varying arrival rate. The objective is to obtain infinitesimal perturbation analysis (IPA) gradient estimates for various performance measures of interest with respect to certain system parameters. In particular, the authors consider the mean system time over n arrivals and an arrival rate alternating between two values. By choosing a convenient sample path representation of this system, they derive an unbiased IPA gradient estimator which, however, is not consistent, and investigate the nature of this problem.

Cassandras, Christos G.↗

Determining Mars parking orbits which ensure in-plane arrival and departure burns

A numerical method to find suitable Mars parking orbits is developed which takes into account geometries associated with the asymptotes, along with the nodal precession caused by the oblateness of Mars. A selected orbital plane which contains the arrival asymptote precesses through the stay time to the plane also containing the departure asymptote. The parking orbit is co-planar with both the arrival and departure asymptotes and only in-plane burns are required at both Mars arrival and departure. The need for a plane change at Mars departure to achieve the proper velocity vector for earth return is eliminated. The method requires very little computation time to determine a set of all possible inclinations and right ascensions of the ascending nodes.

Desai, Prasun N.↗

Fast-Time Evaluations of Airborne Merging and Spacing in Terminal Arrival Operations

NASA researchers are developing new airborne technologies and procedures to increase runway throughput at capacity-constrained airports by improving the precision of inter-arrival spacing at the runway threshold. In this new operational concept, pilots of equipped aircraft are cleared to adjust aircraft speed to achieve a designated spacing interval at the runway threshold, relative to a designated lead aircraft. A new airborne toolset, prototypes of which are being developed at the NASA Langley Research Center, assists pilots in achieving this objective. The current prototype allows precision spacing operations to commence even when the aircraft and its lead are not yet in-trail, but are on merging arrival routes to the runway. A series of fast-time evaluations of the new toolset were conducted at the Langley Research Center during the summer of 2004. The study assessed toolset performance in a mixed fleet of aircraft on three merging arrival streams under a range of operating conditions. The results of the study indicate that the prototype possesses a high degree of robustness to moderate variations in operating conditions.

Krishnamurthy, Karthik↗

Automated Conflict Resolution, Arrival Management and Weather Avoidance for ATM

The paper describes a unified solution to three types of separation assurance problems that occur in en-route airspace: separation conflicts, arrival sequencing, and weather-cell avoidance. Algorithms for solving these problems play a key role in the design of future air traffic management systems such as NextGen. Because these problems can arise simultaneously in any combination, it is necessary to develop integrated algorithms for solving them. A unified and comprehensive solution to these problems provides the foundation for a future air traffic management system that requires a high level of automation in separation assurance. The paper describes the three algorithms developed for solving each problem and then shows how they are used sequentially to solve any combination of these problems. The first algorithm resolves loss-of-separation conflicts and is an evolution of an algorithm described in an earlier paper. The new version generates multiple resolutions for each conflict and then selects the one giving the least delay. Two new algorithms, one for sequencing and merging of arrival traffic, referred to as the Arrival Manager, and the other for weather-cell avoidance are the major focus of the paper. Because these three problems constitute a substantial fraction of the workload of en-route controllers, integrated algorithms to solve them is a basic requirement for automated separation assurance. The paper also reviews the Advanced Airspace Concept, a proposed design for a ground-based system that postulates redundant systems for separation assurance in order to achieve both high levels of safety and airspace capacity. It is proposed that automated separation assurance be introduced operationally in several steps, each step reducing controller workload further while increasing airspace capacity. A fast time simulation was used to determine performance statistics of the algorithm at up to 3 times current traffic levels.

Erzberger, H.↗

Design Considerations for a New Terminal Area Arrival Scheduler

Design of a terminal area arrival scheduler depends on the interrelationship between throughput, delay and controller intervention. The main contribution of this paper is an analysis of the above interdependence for several stochastic behaviors of expected system performance distributions in the aircraft s time of arrival at the meter fix and runway. Results of this analysis serve to guide the scheduler design choices for key control variables. Two types of variables are analyzed, separation buffers and terminal delay margins. The choice for these decision variables was tested using sensitivity analysis. Analysis suggests that it is best to set the separation buffer at the meter fix to its minimum and adjust the runway buffer to attain the desired system performance. Delay margin was found to have the least effect. These results help characterize the variables most influential in the scheduling operations of terminal area arrivals.

Thipphavong, Jane↗

An Evaluation of Controller and Pilot Performance, Workload and Acceptability under a NextGen Concept for Dynamic Weather Adapted Arrival Routing

In todays terminal operations, controller workload increases and throughput decreases when fixed standard terminal arrival routes (STARs) are impacted by storms. To circumvent this operational constraint, Prete, Krozel, Mitchell, Kim and Zou (2008) proposed to use automation to dynamically adapt arrival and departure routing based on weather predictions. The present study examined this proposal in the context of a NextGen trajectory-based operation concept, focusing on the acceptability and its effect on the controllers ability to manage traffic flows. Six controllers and twelve transport pilots participated in a human-in-the-loop simulation of arrival operations into Louisville International Airport with interval management requirements. Three types of routing structures were used: Static STARs (similar to current routing, which require the trajectories of individual aircraft to be modified to avoid the weather), Dynamic routing (automated adaptive routing around weather), and Dynamic Adjusted routing (automated adaptive routing around weather with aircraft entry time adjusted to account for differences in route length). Spacing Responsibility, whether responsibility for interval management resided with the controllers (as today), or resided with the pilot (who used a flight deck based automated spacing algorithm), was also manipulated. Dynamic routing as a whole was rated superior to static routing, especially by pilots, both in terms of workload reduction and flight path safety. A downside of using dynamic routing was that the paths flown in the dynamic conditions tended to be somewhat longer than the paths flown in the static condition.

Johnson, Walter W.↗

Investigating the Impact of Off-Nominal Events on High-Density "Green" Arrivals

Trajectory-based controller tools developed to support a schedule-based terminal-area air traffic management (ATM) concept have been shown effective for enabling green arrivals along Area Navigation (RNAV) routes in moderately high-density traffic conditions. A recent human-in-the-loop simulation investigated the robustness of the concept and tools to off-nominal events events that lead to situations in which runway arrival schedules require adjustments and controllers can no longer use speed control alone to impose the necessary delays. Study participants included a terminal-area Traffic Management Supervisor responsible for adjusting the schedules. Sector-controller participants could issue alternate RNAV transition routes to absorb large delays. The study also included real-time winds/wind-forecast changes. The results indicate that arrival spacing accuracy, schedule conformance, and tool usage and usefulness are similar to that observed in simulations of nominal operations. However, the time and effort required to recover from an off-nominal event is highly context-sensitive, and impacted by the required schedule adjustments and control methods available for managing the evolving situation. The research suggests ways to bolster the off-nominal recovery process, and highlights challenges related to using human-in-the-loop simulation to investigate the safety and robustness of advanced ATM concepts.

Callatine, Todd J.↗

NASA's ATM Technology Demonstration-1: Integrated Concept of Arrival Operations

This paper describes operations and procedures envisioned for NASA s Air Traffic Management (ATM) Technology Demonstration #1 (ATD-1). The ATD-1 Concept of Operations (ConOps) demonstration will integrate three NASA technologies to achieve high throughput, fuel-efficient arrival operations into busy terminal airspace. They are Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering (TMA-TM) for precise time-based schedules to the runway and points within the terminal area, Controller-Managed Spacing (CMS) decision support tools for terminal controllers to better manage aircraft delay using speed control, and Flight deck Interval Management (FIM) avionics and flight crew procedures to conduct airborne spacing operations. The ATD-1 concept provides de-conflicted and efficient operations of multiple arrival streams of aircraft, passing through multiple merge points, from top-of-descent (TOD) to touchdown. It also enables aircraft to conduct Optimized Profile Descents (OPDs) from en route altitude to the runway, using primarily speed control to maintain separation and schedule. The ATD-1 project is currently addressing the challenges of integrating the three technologies, and implantation into an operational environment. Goals of the ATD-1 demonstration include increasing the throughput of high-density airports, reducing controller workload, increasing efficiency of arrival operations and the frequency of trajectory-based operations, and promoting aircraft ADS-B equipage.

Baxley, Brian T.↗

Design Principles and Algorithms for Air Traffic Arrival Scheduling

This report presents design principles and algorithms for building a real-time scheduler of arrival aircraft based on a first-come-first-served (FCFS) scheduling protocol. The algorithms provide the conceptual and computational foundation for the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) of the Center/terminal radar approach control facilities (TRACON) automation system, which comprises a set of decision support tools for managing arrival traffic at major airports in the United States. The primary objective of the scheduler is to assign arrival aircraft to a favorable landing runway and schedule them to land at times that minimize delays. A further objective of the scheduler is to allocate delays between high-altitude airspace far away from the airport and low-altitude airspace near the airport. A method of delay allocation is described that minimizes the average operating cost in the presence of errors in controlling aircraft to a specified landing time. This report is a revision of an earlier paper first presented as part of an Advisory Group for Aerospace Research and Development (AGARD) lecture series in September 1995. The authors, during vigorous discussions over the details of this paper, felt it was important to the air-trafficmanagement (ATM) community to revise and extend the original 1995 paper, providing more detail and clarity and thereby allowing future researchers to understand this foundational work as the basis for the TMA's scheduling algorithms.

Center TRACON↗

Identifying Key Issues and Potential Solutions for Integrated Arrival, Departure, Surface Operations by Surveying Stakeholder Preferences

NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) collaborates with the FAA and industry to provide concepts and technologies that enhance the transition to the next-generation air-traffic management system (NextGen). To facilitate this collaboration, ARMD has a series of Airspace Technology Demonstration (ATD) sub-projects that develop, demonstrate, and transitions NASA technologies and concepts for implementation in the National Airspace System (NAS). The second of these sub-projects, ATD-2, is focused on the potential benefits to NAS stakeholders of integrated arrival, departure, surface (IADS) operations. To determine the project objectives and assess the benefits of a potential solution, NASA surveyed NAS stakeholders to understand the existing issues in arrival, departure, and surface operations, and the perceived benefits of better integrating these operations. NASA surveyed a broad cross-section of stakeholders representing the airlines, airports, air-navigation service providers, and industry providers of NAS tools. The survey indicated that improving the predictability of flight times (schedules) could improve efficiency in arrival, departure, and surface operations. Stakeholders also mentioned the need for better strategic and tactical information on traffic constraints as well as better information sharing and a coupled collaborative planning process that allows stakeholders to coordinate IADS operations. To assess the impact of a potential solution, NASA sketched an initial departure scheduling concept and assessed its viability by surveying a select group of stakeholders for a second time. The objective of the departure scheduler was to enable flights to move continuously from gate to cruise with minimal interruption in a busy metroplex airspace environment using strategic and tactical scheduling enhanced by collaborative planning between airlines and service providers. The stakeholders agreed that this departure concept could improve schedule predictability and suggested several key attributes that were necessary to make the concept successful. The goals and objectives of the planned ATD-2 sub-project will incorporate the results of this stakeholder feedback.

integrated arrival/departure/surface operations↗

Concept of Operations for Interval Management Arrivals and Approach

This paper presents the concept of operations for interval management operations to be deployed in the US National Airspace System (NAS) by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) after 2020. The use of interval management operations is described that begin in en route airspace and continue to a termination point inside the arrival terminal area, in a terminal environment that includes other arrival management tools such as arrival metering, Ground-based Interval Management - Spacing (GIM-S), and Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSAS). The roles of Air Traffic Controllers and Flight Crews and the ground automation tools that are used by Air Traffic Controllers to enable the primary operation and variations are described.

Hicok, Daniel S.↗

Airspace Technology Demonstration 3 (ATD-3): Dynamic Routes for Arrivals in Weather (DRAW) Technology Transfer Document Summary Version 1.0

Airspace Technology Demonstration – 3 (ATD-3) is part of NASA’s Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) – specifically, its Airspace Technology Demonstrations (ATD) Project. ATD-3 is a multi-year research and development effort which proposes to develop and demonstrate automation technologies and operating concepts that enable air navigation service providers and airspace users to continuously assess weather, winds, traffic, and other information to identify, evaluate, and implement workable opportunities for flight plan route corrections that can result in significant flight time and fuel savings in en route airspace. In order to ensure that the products of this tech-transfer are relevant and useful, NASA has created strong partnerships with the FAA and key industry stakeholders. This summary document and accompanying technology artifacts satisfy the third of three Research Transition Products (RTPs) defined in the Applied Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) Research Transition Team (RTT) Plan. This transfer consists of NASA’s Dynamic Routes for Arrivals in Weather (DRAW) –Arrival Metering Operations. This research enables continued use of arrival metering operations while efficiently rerouting traffic in weather

DRAW↗

Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard

Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last 6 years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past 6 years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid-2018, and additionally focus on 28 events, all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME-shock arrival times, in an average sense, to within ±10 hr, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hr. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of 1 hr, a mean absolute error of 13 hr, and a precision (standard deviation) of 15 hr. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of thevarious models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

space weather↗

The Effects of Uncertainty in Initial CME Input Parameters on Deflection, Rotation, Bz, and Arrival Time Predictions

Understanding the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) requires knowing if and when they will impact and their properties upon impact. Of particular importance is the strength of a CME's southward magnetic field component (Bz ). Kay et al. (2013, https://doi:10.1088/0004-637X/775/1/5, 2015, https://doi:10.1088/948 0004-637X/805/2/168) have shown that the simplified analytic model Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT) can reproduce the deflection and rotation of CMEs. Kay, Gopalswamy, Reinard, and Opher (2017, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/835/2/117) introduced ForeCAT In situ Data Observer, which uses ForeCAT results to simulate magnetic field profiles. ForeCAT In situ Data Observer reproduces the in situ observations on roughly hourly time scales, suggesting that these models could be extremely useful for predictions of Bz . However, as with all models, both models are sensitive to their input parameters, which may not be precisely known for predictions. We explore this sensitivity using ensembles having small changes in the initial latitude, longitude, and orientation of the erupting CME. We explore the effects of different background magnetic field models and find that the changes in deflection and rotation resulting from the uncertainty in the initial parameters tend to exceed the changes from dierent magnetic backgrounds. The range in the in situ proles tends to scale with the range in the deflection and rotation. We also consider a simple arrival time model using ForeCAT results and nd an average absolute error of only 3 hr. We show that an uncertainty in the CME position of 8.1 ± 6.9 leads to variations of 6 hr in the arrival time. This measure depends strongly on the location of impact within the CME with the arrival time changing less for impacts near the nose.

Kay, Christina D.↗

Improving Departure Throughput by Dynamically Adjusting Inter-Arrival Spacing

LaGuardia Airport (LGA) in New York has many unique challenges that create excess taxi-out delays. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential benefit that could be gained by tactically adjusting the Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSS) schedule to precisely manage inter-arrival spacing to maximize the number of departures per arrival pair. Three strategies for dynamically adjusting arrival schedules are proposed in this paper: Delay Control, Delay and Advance, and No Slack Capacity. The benefits of these strategies were examined on actual traffic data at LGA. The results showed that by applying these strategies, a 10 to 60 increase in departures and a reduction in un-utilized departure capacity (gaps) could be achieved during the airports busiest six-hour period. Significant increases in departure throughput would improve air traffic operations by reducing departure delay time. Furthermore, the concept could be used to resolve temporal mismatches between departure capacity and demand which also cause excessive departure delays.

Yoo, Hyo-Sang↗

Optimizing Integrated Arrival, Departure and Surface Operations Under Uncertainty

In airports and surrounding terminal airspaces, the integration of arrival, departure and surface scheduling and routing have the potential to improve the operations efficiency. Recent research had developed mixed-integer-linear programming algorithm-based scheduler for integrated arrival and departure operations in the presence of uncertainty. This paper extends to the surface previous research performed by the authors to integrate taxiway and runway operations. The developed algorithm is capable of computing optimal aircraft schedules and routings that reflects the integration of air and ground operations. A preliminary study case is conducted for a set of thirteen aircraft evolving in a model of the Los Angeles International airport and surrounding terminal areas. Using historical data, a representative traffic scenario is constructed and probabilistic distributions of pushback delay and arrival gate delay are obtained. To assess the benefits of optimization, a First- Come-First-Serve algorithm approach comparison is realized. Evaluation results demonstrate that the optimization can help identifying runway sequencing and schedule that reduce gate waiting time without increasing average taxi times.

Bosson, Christabelle↗

Comparison of Fuel Consumption of Descent Trajectories Under Arrival Metering

This paper compares fuel consumption of descent trajectories from cruise altitude to meter fix when the required time of arrival is later than the nominal time of arrival at the meter fix. The required delay, which is the difference between the nominal and the required times of arrival, is achieved by either slowing down the aircraft in the cruise and descent phases or flying a longer route at a constant altitude. Performance models of ten different Boeing and Airbus aircraft, obtained from the Base of Aircraft Data, are employed for generating the results. It is demonstrated that the most fuel-efficient speed control strategy for absorbing delay is first reducing descent speed as much as possible and then reducing cruise speed. This is a common finding for all ten aircraft considered. For some aircraft, flying at a fixed flight path angle and constant Mach-calibrated-airspeed results in lower fuel consumption compared to standard descent at idle-thrust and constant Mach-calibrated- airspeed. Finally, for the cases examined, it is shown that executing a path stretch maneuver at cruise altitude and descent at a reduced speed is more fuel efficient than inserting an intermediate-altitude cruise segment.

Nikoleris, Tasos↗

Real Time Metrics and Analysis of Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface Operations

To address the Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) challenge, NASA is developing and demonstrating trajectory-based departure automation under a collaborative effort with the FAA and industry known Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2). ATD-2 builds upon and integrates previous NASA research capabilities that include the Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA), the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC), and the Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSAS) capability. As trajectory-based departure scheduling and collaborative decision making tools are introduced in order to reduce delays and uncertainties in taxi and climb operations across the National Airspace System, users of the tools across a number of roles benefit from a real time system that enables common situational awareness. A real time dashboard was developed to inform and present users notifications and integrated information regarding airport surface operations. The dashboard is a supplement to capabilities and tools that incorporate arrival, departure, and surface air-traffic operations concepts in a NextGen environment. In addition to shared situational awareness, the dashboard offers the ability to compute real time metrics and analysis to inform users about capacity, predictability, and efficiency of the system as a whole. This paper describes the architecture of the real time dashboard as well as an initial proposed set of metrics. The potential impact of the real time dashboard is studied at the site identified for initial deployment and demonstration in 2017: Charlotte-Douglas International Airport (CLT). The architecture of implementing such a tool as well as potential uses are presented for operations at CLT. Metrics computed in real time illustrate the opportunity to provide common situational awareness and inform users of system delay, throughput, taxi time, and airport capacity. In addition, common awareness of delays and the impact of takeoff and departure restrictions stemming from traffic flow management initiatives are explored. The potential of the real time tool to inform users of the predictability and efficiency of using a trajectory-based departure scheduling system is also discussed.

integrated arrival departure surface operations↗