Evaluation of assumptions made by Hygroscopic Tandem Differential Mobility Analyzer inversion routines
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
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The Impact of Temperature Modeling Assumptions for the Transformational Challenge Reactor
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Ade, Brian↗
Accessing and Understanding REopt's Federal Assumptions
REopt is a techno-economic analysis platform accessible as a user-friendly web tool that facilitates life cycle cost analysis of distributed energy resources. It is typically used for preliminary assessments to identify the least-cost technology mix, system sizing, and operations strategies towards agency cost savings and resilience goals. This guide identifies and explains REopt inputs for federal life cycle cost analyses, modified from their commercial default values. These federal input defaults are based on statutory requirements for life cycle cost analyses of energy conservation measures at federal facilities per 10 CFR 436 Subpart A.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation of Imperfect (n, 233 U) Data and Model
Conventional nuclear data evaluation methods using generalized linear least squares make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate to minimize the cost function (even for nonlinear models); the model (e.g., of neutron cross section) and experimental data (including covariance data) are without defect and prior PDFs of parameters and measured data are known perfectly. Neglect of covariance between model parameters and measured data in conventional evaluations contributes to imperfections. These assumptions are inherent to the generalized linear least squares minimization method commonly used for resolved resonance region neutron cross section evaluations but are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, nonlinear models (e.g., R-matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g., imperfect covariance data). Here, these assumptions are removed in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, which is implemented using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Most importantly, new parameters are introduced to parameterize discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data to quantify judgement about discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. An evaluation of 233U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII.0 library and transmission data (Guber et al.) is presented, and posterior parameters are compared to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods. This example illustrates the effects of removing the most harmful assumption: that of model-data perfection.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Sensitivity Effects of High Temperature Overhead Conductors to Line Rating Variables
For traditional overhead transmission lines, the maximum allowable conductor operating temperature on ASCR, AAC, or AAAC lines for determining the static line ratings can be quite low, typically well under 100 C. At these low temperatures, the primary driver for determining static line ratings are assumptions made about the wind speed and direction and the ambient temperature. Assumptions for solar loading and emitted thermal radiation, driven by line emissivity and absorptivity, are secondary factors, and only provide small changes to the static ratings. However, when considering newer high temperature conductors such as ACSS, ACCR, ZTACIR, and ACCC® the maximum allowable conductor temperatures can be significantly higher, up to 250° C. This higher temperature shifts the importance of the emissivity assumptions of the overhead transmission line, due to the nature of the T4 dependence of the radiative heat loss compared to the T1 dependence of the convective heat loss, as well as shifting the dependency on local wind conditions. Typical assumptions in the United States for the emissivity/absorptivity of overhead transmission lines in determining the static ratings are to use a value of 0.5 for both parameters or set a value in the range of 0.7 to 0.9. Recent experimental tests at EPRI have shown that higher emissivity aging assumptions may not be valid in some regions of the US, and that actual values may be much lower (0.25-0.45) than older studies have predicted (0.8-0.9). Here, the assumptions of different US Regional Transmission Operators (RTOs) and different utilities within RTOs are examined for the static ratings for traditional lower operating temperatures up to 100° C as well as with the higher maximum temperature conductors associated with newer conductor designs at 250° C. The sensitivity of the static ratings is examined at both lower and higher temperature conductors with respect to overhead line emissivity and absorptivity, wind speed, wind direction, and solar loading, and ambient temperature. It is shown that the effects of the conductor absorptivity, solar flux and ambient temperature on the static rating are increased when the transmission line has a lower maximum conductor temperature. The effects of the conductor emissivity, wind direction and wind speed have increased effects on the static rating when the transmission line has a higher maximum conductor temperature. In addition, example weather data is used to calculate the conductor temperature with different line emissivity and absorptivity assumptions. This shows the effect of assumptions made for emissivity only has a minor impact for low temperature lines, but for high temperature transmission lines can cause a 150-200° C temperature swing.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Limitations of traditional tools for beyond design basis external hazard PRA
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is being used increasingly by the nuclear industry for safety during normal operations as well as for the protection against external hazards. Computation of total risk in an external hazard PRA is dependent on hazard assessment, fragility assessment, and systems analysis. A systems analysis for propagation of component fragilities is conducted using event and fault trees. The event and fault trees for an actual power plant can be fairly large in size, which imposes computational challenges. Hence, certain assumptions are employed for computational efficiency. These assumptions typically represent the conditions imposed during the design basis (DB) scenario. The traditional PRA tools based on these assumptions are also widely applied to perform risk assessment in the context of beyond design basis (BDB) scenarios. However, some of these assumptions may not be valid for certain BDB scenarios. In addition, the probability of dependent failures also increases in BDB scenarios due to common cause failures (CCF) which usually results from design modifications, human errors, etc. In this manuscript, a simple and a relatively more complex illustrative examples are used to show the limitation of these assumptions in the numerical quantification of risk for the case of BDB conditions. Case studies with CCF events across multiple fault trees are also presented to illustrate the effect of these assumptions when traditional approach is used in BDB risk assessment. It is shown that the assumptions are valid for the case of DB conditions but may lead to excessively conservative risk estimates in the case of BDB conditions. Finally, a Bayesian network based top-down algorithm is proposed as an alternative tool for accurate numerical quantification of total risk in systems analysis.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Quantifying model prediction sensitivity to model-form uncertainty
Computational and mathematical models are essential to understanding complex systems and phenomena. However, when developing such models, limited knowledge and/or resources necessitates the use of simplifying assumptions. It is therefore crucial to quantify the impact of such simplifying assumptions on the reliability and accuracy of resulting model predictions. This work develops a first-of-its-kind approach to quantify the impact of physics modeling assumptions on predictions. Here, we leverage the emerging field of model-form uncertainty (MFU) representations, which are parameterized modifications to modeling assumptions, in combination with grouped Sobol’ indices to quantitatively measure an assumption’s importance. Specifically, we compute the grouped Sobol’ index for the MFU representation’s parameters as a single importance measure of the assumption for which the MFU representation characterizes uncertainty. To ensure this approach is robust to the subjective choice of how to parameterize a MFU representation, we establish bounds for the difference between sensitivity results for two different MFU representations based on differences in model prediction statistics. The capabilities associated with this approach are demonstrated on three exemplar problems: an upscaled subsurface contaminant transport problem, ablation modeling for hypersonic flight, and nuclear waste repository modeling. We found that our grouped approach is able to assess the impact of modeling assumptions on predictions and offers computational advantages over classical Sobol’ index computation while providing more interpretable results.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
How structural differences influence cross-model consistency: An electric sector case study
Multiple models are often employed to describe a range of possible outcomes for one or more scenarios, yielding insights into causal relationships and their uncertainties. Electric sector capacity expansion scenarios are a common topic of such efforts due to the economic influence of the electric sector, but model results typically span a broad solution space despite efforts to harmonize input assumptions, making decision implications difficult to discern. This study investigates the relationship between input harmonization and cross-model scenario consistency under disparate electric sector scenarios. We compare cross-model consistency between two state-of-the-art electric sector capacity expansion models (GCAM-USA and ReEDS) for six electric sector scenarios comprising alternate assumptions about fossil fuel resource availability, technology innovation, and long-term economy-wide transitions under four harmonization configurations varying model representations of electricity demand, fuel prices, renewable resources, and capacity retirements. These comparisons reveal that cross-model consistency can vary across scenarios under a given harmonization configuration, suggesting that harmonization efforts must often be scenario-specific if comparable cross-model consistency is desired. Model structural differences can hinder consistency, and the impact of these differences can depend on the scenario. Ultimately, thorough harmonization can reveal insights into cross-model consistency, which can be used to tighten uncertainty bounds and improve the decision-making implications of multi-model activities.
Cohen, Stuart↗
Using Visual Systems Mapping to Improve Transparency and Comparability of Life Cycle Assessment Baseline Scenarios
Visual systems mapping is a systems engineering approach used to represent complex processes and interactions. This study evaluates its application for documenting assumptions in life cycle assessment (LCA) baseline scenarios. In LCA, the baseline or reference case represents the business as usual system against which changes in impacts (e.g., emissions) are assessed. These baseline assumptions are particularly influential in biomass LCAs, yet they often vary across studies due to regional context, system boundaries, and simplifying assumptions that are not consistently or transparently documented. As a result, key feedbacks, omitted processes, and boundary choices may remain unclear, limiting comparability across studies and weakening their usefulness for decision-making. This study examines whether visual systems mapping can improve the transparency and comparability of biomass LCA baseline scenarios. A case study of five published biomass-related LCAs were reviewed, and their baseline scenarios were translated into visual system maps to identify included processes, omitted components, and underlying assumptions. The analysis demonstrates that visual systems mapping can make baseline assumptions more explicit, highlight excluded dynamics, and improve documentation of system boundaries. Based on these findings, the study recommends the use of visual systems mapping alongside open data repositories and reproducible workflows to support greater transparency, reproducibility, and comparability in LCAs. These improvements can strengthen the role of LCAs in informing decisions related to sustainable biomass systems.
Davis, Maggie [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000181319328)↗
Nuclear data uncertainty propagation and modeling uncertainty impact evaluation in neutronics core simulation
Uncertainty analysis is a critical requirement in reactor simulation as it is used to quantify the reliability of best-estimate calculation. A comprehensive uncertainty analysis should characterize all sources of uncertainties in a computationally-feasible and scientifically-defendable manner. Here we employ a well-established reduced order modeling (ROM) based uncertainty quantification methodology to propagate uncertainties throughout neutronic calculations. ROM relies on recent advances in randomized data mining techniques applied to large data streams. In our proposed implementation, the nuclear data uncertainties are first propagated from multi-group level through lattice physics calculation to generate few-group parameter uncertainties, described using a vector of mean values and a covariance matrix. Employing an ROM-based compression of the covariance matrix, the few-group uncertainties are then propagated through downstream core simulation in a computationally efficient manner. This straightforward approach, albeit efficient as compared to brute force forward and/or adjoint-based methods, often employs a number of assumptions that have been unquestioned in the literature of neutronic uncertainty analysis. This manuscript argues that these assumptions could introduce another source of uncertainty referred to as modeling uncertainties, whose magnitude needs to be quantified in tandem with nuclear data uncertainties. Thus, our primary goal is to explore the interactions between these two uncertainty sources in order to assess whether modeling uncertainties have an impact on parameter uncertainties. To explore this endeavor, the impact of a number of modeling assumptions on core attributes uncertainties is quantified. The study employs a CANDU reactor model, with Serpent and NEWT as lattice physics solvers and NESTLE-C as core simulator. The modeling assumptions investigated include those related with the uncertainty propagation method employed, e.g., deterministic vs. stochastic, the few-group energy structure employed to represent the cross-sections, the resonance treatment in lattice physics calculation, the reference values for the cross-section, and the number of samples employed to render ROM compression. Results indicate that some of the modeling assumptions could have a non-negligible impact on the core responses propagated uncertainties, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive approach to combine parameter and modeling uncertainties.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments
A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in Ref. [2]. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized data are perfect. 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal. 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in [1] could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in [1] to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implementing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS and the stochastic method, respectively. The graphic in Figure 1 categorizes the methods discussed in terms of the assumptions that they employ to determine posterior PDFs.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Hanford Site Composite Analysis Special Analysis: Inventory and Solid Waste Release Modeling for the LLBG Sensitivity Case - UCAQ-22-01 Inventory Discrepancies for 218-E-12B, 218-W-3A, and 218-W-3AE in the Hanford Site Composite Analysis
This environmental calculation file (ECF) documents the methodologies, assumptions, and results of four sensitivity analyses that reevaluate the representativeness of solid-waste radionuclide inventory and release rate from three solid waste sites included in the recently completed Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) (DOE-RL-2019-52, Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the Hanford Site Central Plateau (FY 2020), Rev. 1) (hereinafter called the CA Update). Specifically, this ECF reevaluates the representativeness of the base case inventory and radionuclide waste release rates from three solid waste sites (i.e., 218-E-12B, 218-W-3A, and 218-W-3AE) and two radionuclides (i.e., carbon-14 [C-14] and technetium-99 [Tc-99]). These three waste sites and two radionuclides were identified as being the most significant contributors to groundwater contamination and dose in the CA Update for the Inner Area boundary at times periods after the compliance period. This ECF first evaluates the representativeness of the C-14 and Tc-99 inventory and second, radionuclide release rates for the three waste sites1. If the inventory and release rates assumed in the CA Update are determined to be not representative, as hypothesized in the CA Update, then this ECF evaluates the impact of more representative inventories and release rates on the transfer of radionuclides to the vadose zone. The four analyses described in this ECF are as follows: 1) 218-E-12B C-14 Inventory and Release Rate Sensitivity Case – Determine the representativeness of the C-14 inventory and associated waste release rate from the 218-E-12B waste site assumed in the CA Update. If the inventory and associated waste release are more appropriately characterized as being different from the assumptions in the CA Update, then update the predicted C-14 release rate and compare the results to the results presented in the CA Update (DOE/RL-2019-52); 2) 218-W-3A C-14 Inventory and Release Rate Sensitivity Case – Determine the representativeness of the C-14 inventory and associated waste release rate from the 218-W-3A waste site assumed in the CA Update. If the inventory and associated waste release are more appropriately characterized as being different from the assumptions in the CA Update, then update the predicted C-14 release rate and compare the results to the results presented in the CA Update (DOE/RL-2019-52); 3) 218-W-3AE Tc-99 Release Rate Sensitivity Case – Determine the representativeness of the Tc-99 inventory and associated waste release rate from the 218-W-3AE waste site assumed in the CA Update. If the inventory and associated waste release are more appropriately characterized as being different from the assumptions in the CA Update, then update the predicted Tc-99 release rate and compare the results to the results presented in the CA Update (DOE/RL-2019-52); 4) 218-W-3AE Tc-99 Release Footprint Sensitivity Case – Determine the representativeness of the Tc-99 waste area footprint for the 218-W-3AE waste site assumed in the CA Update. If the footprint of the waste is more appropriately characterized as being different from the assumptions in the CA Update, then update the predicted Tc-99 release rate and compare the results to the result presented in the CA Update (DOE/RL-2019-52).
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Elucidating Abnormal Grain Growth in Thermomagnetic Processed Materials with Transfer Learning and Reinforcement Learning
The goal of this research program is to establish the mechanism governing local grain boundary motion, which is needed to design and process desirable microstructures for better performance, by identifying the relative contributions of grain boundary (GB) energy and mobility to grain growth. Classical models for grain growth assume that the primary mechanism for reducing the total interfacial energy is area reduction and that GB restructuring is not significant. This assumption implies that grain growth is locally driven by curvature. However, recent experimental observations using new non-destructive 3D x-ray diffraction microscopy techniques (3D-XRM) reveal that classic descriptors (i.e., curvature, number of neighbors, grain size) do not predict real grain growth. Instead, local GB motion appears to be governed by its energy relative to its neighbors such that low-energy boundaries replace those of higher energy. However, simulations that incorporate GB energy anisotropy still fail to reproduce these observations. These discrepancies suggest that the common assumption for grain growth theory must be re-examined to predict and, thus, control microstructure evolution in real polycrystals. A significant challenge to testing this assumption is due to anisotropic GB mobility. Mobility may cause abnormal grain growth or affect the final grain shapes or growth rate but its true contributions are unknown because it is difficult to measure. For example, observations in Fe have found that grains associated with high energy and high mobility boundaries tend to experience abnormal grain growth, whereas abnormal grain growth is associated with low energy and high mobility boundaries in alumina. As mobility and energy both control GB motion, it is challenging to isolate the local driving forces necessary to test the common assumption that the primary mechanism is area reduction. The novelty of this work is the use of machine learning tools to capture GB mobility and energy from 3D-XRM measurements in polycrystals to test the common assumption used in grain growth models. Machine learning can capture high-order correlations in dynamic systems like those found in the evolving GB topology. The PIs have developed a physics-regularized interpretable machine learning microstructure evolution (PRIMME) model that accurately replicates the grain growth behavior of its trained data set.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Gaussian Kernel Methods for Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment of Mid-Rise Buildings
Seismic fragility functions can be evaluated using the cloud analysis method with linear regression which makes three fundamental assumptions about the relation between structural response and seismic intensity: log-linear median relationship, constant standard deviation, and Gaussian distributed errors. While cloud analysis with linear regression is a popular method, the degree to which these individual and compounded assumptions affect the fragility and the risk of mid-rise buildings needs to be systematically studied. This paper conducts such a study considering three building archetypes that make up a bulk of the building stock: RC moment frame, steel moment frame, and wood shear wall. Gaussian kernel methods are employed to capture the data-driven variations in the median structural response and standard deviation and the distributions of residuals with the intensity level. With reference to the Gaussian kernels approach, it is found that while the linear regression assumptions may not affect the fragility functions of lower damage states, this conclusion does not hold for the higher damage states (such as the Complete state). In addition, the effects of linear regression assumptions on the seismic risk are evaluated. For predicting the demand hazard, it is found that the linear regression assumptions can impact the computed risk for larger structural response values. However, for predicting the loss hazard with downtime as the decision variable, linear regression can be considered adequate for all practical purposes.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Bioenergy Technologies in Long-Run Climate Change Mitigation: Results from the EMF-33 Study
Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in long-run climate change mitigation strategies as highlighted by many integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios. These scenarios, however, also show a very wide range of results, with uncertainty about bioenergy conversion technology deployment and biomass feedstock supply. To date, the underlying differences in model assumptions and parameters for the range of results have not been conveyed. Here we explore the models and results of the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum to elucidate and explore bioenergy technology specifications and constraints that underlie projected bioenergy outcomes. We first develop and report consistent bioenergy technology characterizations and modeling details. We evaluate the bioenergy technology specifications through a series of analyses—comparison with the literature, model intercomparison, and an assessment of bioenergy technology projected deployments. We find that bioenergy technology coverage and characterization varies substantially across models, spanning different conversion routes, carbon capture and storage opportunities, and technology deployment constraints. Still, the range of technology specification assumptions is largely in line with bottom-up engineering estimates. We then find that variation in bioenergy deployment across models cannot be understood from technology costs alone. Important additional determinants include biomass feedstock costs, the availability and costs of alternative mitigation options in and across end-uses, the availability of carbon dioxide removal possibilities, the speed with which large scale changes in the makeup of energy conversion facilities and integration can take place, and the relative demand for different energy services.
bioenergy↗
Robust inference of ecosystem soil water stress from eddy covariance data
Eddy covariance data are invaluable for determining ecosystem water use strategies under soil water stress. However, existing stress inference methods require numerous subjective data processing and model specification assumptions whose effect on the inferred soil water stress signal is rarely quantified. These uncertainties may confound the stress inference and the generalization of ecosystem water use strategies across multiple sites and studies. In this research, we quantify the sensitivity of soil water stress signals inferred from eddy covariance data to the prevailing data and modeling assumptions (i.e., their robustness) to compile a comprehensive list of sites with robust soil water stress signals and assess the performance of current stress inference methods. To accomplish this, we identify the most prevalent assumptions from the literature and perform a digital factorial experiment to extract probability distributions of plausible soil water stress signals and model performance at 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET sites. Here, we develop a new framework that summarizes these probability distributions to classify and rank the robustness of each site’s soil water stress signal, which we display with a user-friendly heat map. We estimate that only 5%–36% of sites exhibit a robust soil water stress signal due to deficient model performance and poorly constrained ecosystem water use parameters. We also find that the lack of robustness is site-specific, which undermines grouping stress signals by broad ecosystem categories or comparing results across studies with differing assumptions. Lastly, existing stress inference methods appear better suited for eddy covariance sites with grass/annual vegetation. Our findings call for more careful and consistent inference of ecosystem water stress from eddy covariance data.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The second-generation Shifted Boundary Method and its numerical analysis
Recently, the Shifted Boundary Method (SBM) was proposed within the class of unfitted (or immersed, or embedded) finite element methods. By reformulating the original boundary value problem over a surrogate (approximate) computational domain, the SBM avoids integration over cut cells and the associated problematic issues regarding numerical stability and matrix conditioning. Accuracy is maintained by modifying the original boundary conditions using Taylor expansions. Hence the name of the method, that shifts the location and values of the boundary conditions. In this article, we present enhanced variational SBM formulations for the Poisson and Stokes problems with improved flexibility and robustness. These simplified variational forms allow to relax some of the assumptions required by the mathematical proofs of stability and convergence of earlier implementations. First, we show that these new SBM implementations can be proved asymptotically stable and convergent even without the rather restrictive assumption that the inner product between the normals to the true and surrogate boundaries is positive. Second, we show that it is not necessary to introduce a stabilization term involving the tangential derivatives of the solution at Dirichlet boundaries, therefore avoiding the calibration of an additional stabilization parameter. Finally, we prove enhanced L 2 -estimates without the cumbersome assumption – of earlier proofs – that the surrogate domain is convex. Instead we rely on a conventional assumption that the boundary of the true domain is smooth, which can also be replaced by requiring convexity of the true domain. The aforementioned improvements open the way to a more general and efficient implementation of the Shifted Boundary Method, particularly in complex three-dimensional geometries. We complement these theoretical developments with numerical experiments in two and three dimensions.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Modeling hydrogen markets: Energy system model development status and decarbonization scenario results
Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in difficult-to-decarbonize markets such as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime, iron and steel, and the production of fuels and chemicals. Significant literature has been accumulated on engineering-based assessments of various hydrogen technologies, and real-world projects are validating technology performance at larger scales and for low-carbon supply chains. While energy system models continue to be updated to track this progress, many are currently limited in their representation of hydrogen, and as a group they tend to generate highly variable results under decarbonization constraints. Here, the present work provides insights into the development status and decarbonization scenario results of 15 energy system models participating in study 37 of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF37), focusing on the U.S. energy system. The models and scenario results vary widely in multiple respects: hydrogen technology representation, scope and type of hydrogen end-use markets, relative optimism of hydrogen technology input assumptions, and market uptake results reported for 2050 under various decarbonization assumptions. Most models report hydrogen market uptake increasing with decarbonization constraints, though some models report high carbon prices being required to achieve these increases and some find hydrogen does not compete well when assuming optimistic assumptions for all advanced decarbonization technologies. Across various scenarios, hydrogen market success tends to have an inverse relationship to success with direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. While most model-scenario combinations predict modest hydrogen uptake by 2050 – <10 million metric tons (MMT) – aggregating the top 10 % of market uptake results across sectors suggests an upper range demand potential of 42–223 MMT. The high degree of variability across both modeling methods and market uptake results suggests that increased harmonization of both input assumptions and subsector competition scope would lead to more consistent results across energy system models. The wide variability in results indicates strongly divergent conclusions on the role of hydrogen in a decarbonized energy future.
08 HYDROGEN↗